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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK -
GOLD -Gold have been getting Support for week for Bullish rally but we thinks this is more of a short-term
reaction to subsiding geopolitical fears and reiterates his long-term bullish outlook based on a number of
fundamental drivers. In early May, the price of gold was roughly $ 1,250 an ounce. Last week, Spot gold prices
rose 0.9 percent to close at $1266.7/oz, while MCX gold prices rose by same margin to close at Rs. 28888 per
10 gms. The dollar slipped and minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting suggested the U.S. central
bank was cautious about raising interest rates. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's early May
meeting showed policymakers agreed to not tighten credit until they saw evidence that a recent economic
slowdown was transitory. Federal Funds Futures imply traders see an 83 percent chance of a U.S. rate hike in
June, and a 46 percent chance of two more hikes by the year-end. Gold has been supported by weakening U.S.
economic data and troubles facing U.S. President Donald Trump, all of which have weighed on the greenback.
From a week perspective, we expect gold prices to trade higher towards $ 1280 mark while MCX gold prices
will trade higher towards Rs. 29400 mark. Technically Gold is getting Strong Support around 28750 break
below this could drag the Prices toward 28690-28560, or Sustaining above 28800 precious metal may move
towards 28973-29113 on next week trading session.
GOLD CHART
Chart Details -On The Above given daily Chart of Gold has Applied the Bollinger Band as well Parabolic SAR
both indicators are trading on Overbought position, Although the trend may be continue till new high of gold. As
of Now the Crucial Resistance level for Gold is Around at 29200 level or 28700 will be Strong Support as per
Technical Analysis. If metal Sustain Above 28800 level the Gold may create the high of 2900-29200 in next
trading session or below 28700 may drag toward 28500 in near Term.
Monday, 29 .May .2017
SILVER -Silver on MCX settled up 0.73% at 40091 as the dollar retreated with investors shying away from
riskier assets following a tumble in oil prices. President Donald Trump reportedly said Friday at his bilateral
meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that the “big problem” of North Korea’s ambitions for a
nuclear weapon will be dealt with, telling reporters that “you can bet on that, Pressure seen on prices in the week
after minutes from the Fed appeared to show that the majority of the central bank’s officials remain resolute about
hiking rates at their meeting in June. U.S. orders for long lasting manufactured goods fell less than forecast in
April, although the core reading unexpectedly dipped, giving a mixed symbol for the U.S. economy at the
beginning of the second quarter, according to official data. Technically MCX Silver is getting support at 39859
and below same could see a test of 39627 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 40259, a move above
could see prices testing 40427.
SILVER CHART
Detail of Chart -From the Above Depict Daily Chart of Silver We could Analyze the trend of Precious metal for
upcoming trend session. As the Silver is trading in the Crucial levels for Silver is around at 39620-39820 is Down
Side or its middle bands which will be crucial breakout for any negative trend and 39980 which is Upper Band
will work as Crucial Resistance level for the Precious metal. The Significance levels as per Technical Analysis
39950 is Up side and 38700 is Down side.
MCX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 31- MAY-17 132 130 128 127 126 125 124 122 120
COPPER 30- JUNE-2017 389 382 375 371 368 364 361 354 347
CRUDE OIL 19-JUNE-17 3487 3386 3285 3249 3184 3148 3083 2982 2881
GOLD 05-JUNE-2017 29429 29230 29031 28960 28832 28761 28633 28434 28235
LEAD 31- MAY-2017 147 143 139 138 135 134 131 127 123
NATURAL GAS 25-MAY2017 231 225 219 217 213 211 207 201 195
NICKEL 31- MAY-2017 603 596 589 587 582 580 575 568 561
SILVER 05-JULY-2017 41227 40827 40427 40259 40027 39859 39627 39227 38827
ZINC 31- MAY-2017 179 176 173 171 170 168 167 164 161
MCX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 31- MAY-17 134 121 128 127 125 124 122 119 116
COPPER 30- JUNE-2017 396 387 378 372 369 363 360 351 342
CRUDE OIL 19-JUNE-17 3987 3736 3485 3349 3234 3098 2983 2732 2481
GOLD 05-JUNE-2017 29964 29538 29167 29027 28796 28656 28425 28054 27683
LEAD 31- MAY-2017 150 145 140 138 135 133 130 125 120
NATURAL GAS 25-MAY2017 247 235 223 218 211 206 199 185 177
NICKEL 31- MAY-2017 680 650 620 602 590 572 560 530 500
SILVER 05-JULY-2017 43186 42064 40942 40516 39820 39394 38698 37576 36454
ZINC 31- MAY-2017 182 178 174 172 170 168 166 162 158
FOREX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
USDINR 28-JUNE-17 65.12 64.72 64.65 64.60 64.53 64.48 64.41 64.36 64.30
EURINR 28-JUNE-17 72.52 72.44 72.36 72.25 72.17 72.06 71.98 71.87 71.76
GBPINR 28-JUNE-17 83.26 83.13 83.00 82.90 82.77 82.67 82.54 82.44 82.32
JPYINR 28-JUNE-17 58.44 58.34 58.24 58.18 58.08 58.02 57.92 57.86 57.80
FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
USDINR 28-JUNE-17 65.79 64.78 64.88 64.72 64.58 64.42 64.33 64.12 64.03
EURINR 28-JUNE-17 73.25 73.03 72.81 72.45 72.23 71.87 71.65 71.29 70.93
GBPINR 28-JUNE-17 85.67 85.07 84.47 83.44 82.84 81.81 81.21 80.18 79.75
JPYINR 28-JUNE-17 61.19 60.60 60.01 58.88 58.29 57.16 56.57 55.44 54.88
NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20-JUNE-2017 648 640 632 627 624 619 616 608 600
SYBEANIDR 20-JUNE-2017 2964 2892 2820 2791 2748 2719 2676 2604 2532
RMSEED 20-JUNE-2017 3758 3691 3624 3598 3557 3531 3490 3423 3356
JEERAUNJHA 20-JUNE-2017 19160 18700 18240 18060 17780 17600 17320 16860 16400
GUARSEED10 20-JUNE-2017 3793 3703 3613 3575 3523 3485 3433 3343 3253
TMC 20-JUNE-2017 5713 5611 5509 5467 5407 5365 5305 5203 5101
NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20-JUNE-2017 685 666 647 634 628 615 609 590 571
SYBEANIDR 20-JUNE-2017 3218 3070 2922 2841 2774 2693 2626 2478 2330
RMSEED 20-JUNE-2017 4102 3932 3762 3666 3592 3496 3422 3252 3082
JEERAUNJHA 20-JUNE-2017 20173 19403 18633 18257 17863 17487 17093 16323 15553
GUARSEED10 20-JUNE-2017 4133 3941 3749 3643 3557 3451 3365 3173 2981
TMC 20-JUNE-2017 6831 6351 5871 5547 5391 5067 4911 4431 3951
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )✍
GOLD✍
Gold demand in Asia tapered off this week as buyers took to the sidelines in India to await a new national tax
policy and as China entered a seasonal slowdown. Spot gold XAU= , trading on Friday at just below $1,270 an
ounce, has gained 4 percent since hitting an eight-week low of $1,213.81 on May 9. Prior to the rise in spot
prices due to the uncertain political situation in the United States, bullion buyers in India had been building
stocks ahead of a national sales tax that takes effect on July 1. week, though, gold demand in India slumped as
jewellers became more cautious."Retail demand is weak ... Jewellers are now waiting for a clear price trend and
the new tax system," said Harshad Ajmera, president of the Indian Association of Hallmarking Centres. The
new goods and services tax will replace a slew of federal and state levies from July 1, but the government has
yet to fix a tax rate for gold under the GST. The government is likely to finalise the tax rate for gold on June 3.
higher tax rates, many jewellers have been buying gold the last few months, and this could mean India's
imports are set to plunge during the usual period of peak demand in the second half of the year. in India were
charging a premium of up to $1 an ounce this week over official domestic prices, unchanged from last week.
The domestic price includes a 10 percent import tax. "From the next week, gold could start trading in discount.
In the last few months, banks have imported much more gold than demand," said a Mumbai-based bank dealer
with a private bank. In China, the world's top consumer of gold, demand for the yellow metal has weakened as
May-June is usually a quiet period for jewellers. But traders said they expect festive buying will boost demand
in August and September. "There is not too much demand with prices hovering between $1,250-$1,260," said
Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong. Premiums in China were seen at $7 an
ounce, down from $10 last week, traders said. In Hong Kong, premiums were priced in at 60 cents to $1 an
ounce, unchanged from the week before. Prices in Tokyo were quoted at a discount of 50 cents, also unchanged
from last week. Premiums in Singapore were almost unchanged at $1 as against $1-$1.20 the previous
Gold prices moved higher on Friday, but gains were expected to remain limited as the greenback recovered
from recent losses posted after the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s meeting. On the Comex
division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery were up 0.43% at $ 1,261.83.
The June contract ended Thursday’s session 0.26% higher at $1,256.40 an ounce. Futures were likely to find
support at $1,247.60, the low of May 24 and resistance at $1,263.80, the high of May 23. The greenback
regained some ground thanks to Thursday’s better than expected U.S. initial jobless claims data.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major
currencies, was up 0.09% at 97.24. A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it weakens the metal's
appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other
currencies.
The data came a day after the minutes of the Fed’s May meeting showed that the central bank plans to unwind
its balance sheet towards the end of the year, possibly using a system where cap limits are implemented on how
much the Fed would roll off every month without reinvesting. The Fed also signaled that interest rates could be
raised soon, but added that "it would be prudent" to wait for more U.S. economic data. Market participants
were looking ahead to U.S. data on durable goods orders, first-quarter economic growth and consumer
sentiment due later in the day. Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for July delivery rose 0.23% to
$17.233 a troy ounce, while copper futures for July delivery were steady at $2.598 a pound.
Gold prices were higher in European trade on Thursday, staying near the strongest level in around three weeks
as the U.S. dollar slipped after the Federal Reserve signaled a cautious approach to future rate hikes and the
reduction of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet. Comex gold futures rose $ 5.00, or around 0.4%, to $ 1,258.07 a troy
ounce by 2:35AM ET. Meanwhile, spot gold was at $ 1,258.24, not far from a three-week peak of $1,263.80
touched on Tuesday. Also on the Comex, silver futures tacked on 12.6 cents, or about 0.7%, to $17.24 a troy
ounce, just shy of a one-month high of $17.30 scaled earlier this week.
Minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting showed policymakers agreed they should hold off on raising interest
rates until it was clear a recent U.S. economic slowdown was temporary, though most said a hike was coming
soon. The minutes also showed that policymakers favored a gradual reduction in its massive balance sheet. Fed
staff proposed that the central bank set a cap on the amount of bonds that would be allowed to run off each
month, initially setting it at a low level and raising it every three months. The somewhat dovish minutes
prompted traders to scale back bets on two more rate increases by the end of the year. Futures traders are
currently pricing in around an 77% chance of a hike at the Fed's June meeting,while odds for a second rate hike
by December were at about 40%. The median Fed policymaker forecast is for two more rate increases by year-
end. But a recent run of disappointing U.S. economic data combined with signs of deepening political turmoil
in the White House raised doubts over the Fed's ability to raise rates as much as it would like before the end of
the year.
As investors looked ahead to minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting due later in the global day
for further hints on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike. Comex gold futures shed $6.20, or around 0.5%, to $
1,249.21 a troy ounce by 3:25AM ET. Meanwhile, spot gold was at $ 1,249.52. Prices of the yellow metal lost
around $ 6.00 on Tuesday, as the U.S. dollar pulled away from recent six-and-a-half-month lows.
The Fed will release minutes of its most recent policy meeting at 2:00PM ET, as traders seek further insight
into the likelihood of higher interest rates in the months ahead. The U.S. central bank left interest rates
unchanged following its meeting on May 3 and gave a positive assessment of the U.S. economy, suggesting it
was still on track for two more rate hikes this year.But a recent run of disappointing U.S. economic data
combined with signs of deepening political turmoil in the White House saw investors temper expectations for
higher interest rates in the months ahead.
Futures traders are currently pricing in around an 80% chance of a hike at the Fed's June meeting as per analyst
expectation while odds for a second rate hike by December were at about 40%.
India's gold imports could plunge in 2017 during the traditional period of peak demand in the second half of the
year, after jewellers have aggressively restocked inventory ahead of a national sales tax that takes effect on July
1. Lower imports from the world's second-biggest consumer during its high-demand season could drag on
global gold prices XAU= that have gained nearly 10 percent this year as political turmoil in the United States
has raised expectations of a slower pace of interest rate hikes this year. Gold imports typically strengthen in the
second half of a year as the precious metal is considered an auspicious gift at weddings and festivals such as
Diwali and Dussehra.
But the timing of strong purchases looks backwards this year, as the implementation of a Goods and Services
Tax that will replace a slew of federal and state levies has buyers cramming their major activity into the first
half of 2017. This (strong buying) trend will not continue in the coming months," said James Jose, secretary of
the Association of Gold Refineries and Mints, referring to the tripling in the value of gold imports in April. of
GST, some people are stocking up fearing higher tax, but demand has been falling (more recently)," he said.
India's gold imports could hit 450 tonnes in the first half of the year, more than double from the same period in
2016, Imports could then fall to 250 tonnes in the second half, about 40 percent lower than a five-year average
for the period of 403 tonnes. Gold imports in the second half of 2016 were 313.8 tonnes, up 60 percent
compared with the first half of that year. "Aggressive Indian buying is unlikely to be there in the second half
like every year. Global prices need to find support from other sources like exchanged traded funds or have to
correct. Another reason for the first-half buying surge is that cash many jewellers deposited in banks because of
demonetization last year has been routed back through official channels, allowing for the restocking of gold,
Nambiath added. In November, Prime Minister Narendra Modi scrapped 500- and 1,000-rupee banknotes - 86
percent of the value of cash in circulation - as part of a crackdown on corruption, tax evasion and militant
financing. gold could start trading at discounts in India in the next few weeks as jewellers "are carrying far
higher inventory than required. "They have to bring imports down in coming months, "Gold imports in May
could drop to around 50 tonnes, Jose of the refiners' association said, from 85 tonnes in April. Lower gold
imports could help Asia's third-biggest economy in containing a swelling trade deficit that hit its highest level
in 29 months in April. GOLD Imports of unrefined gold will also fall sharply in the second half as new rules
allow only refineries accredited by the Bureau of Indian Standards to import gold from June 1, said Jose of
refiners' association. "It will take at least six months for refiners to secure BIS accreditation. Many small
refiners may fail to get accreditation. India imported 142 tonnes of unrefined gold in 2016, according to data
compiled by the World Gold Council. The data Showed for Indian Gold Import by World Gold Council.
Gold prices held near their strongest level in around three weeks in European trade on Tuesday, as investor
sentiment skewed toward safe-haven assets after a suspected terrorist attack at a concert in Britain's city of
Manchester. Comex gold futures firmed at $ 1,261.43 a troy ounce by 3:10AM ET. Meanwhile, spot gold was
at $ 1,261.60. Prices of the yellow metal rose to an overnight peak of $ 1,263.80, just shy of a three-week high
of $ 1,265.00. Police said an explosion at the end of a concert by U.S. singer Ariana Grande in the English city
of Manchester on Monday killed at least 19 people and injured more than 50. Two U.S. officials said a suicide
bomber was suspected, while Prime Minister Theresa May said the incident was being treated as a terrorist
attack. If confirmed, it would be the deadliest militant assault in Britain since four British Muslims killed 52
people in suicide bombings on London's transport system in July 2005. Gold has been well-supported in recent
sessions as political uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration pressured the dollar lower. Investor
sentiment has been hit by fears that the U.S. political system could become engulfed by crisis, preventing
lawmakers from pushing through tax or spending reforms. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against
a basket of six major rivals, was at 96.83 in London morning trade. It fell to a six-month low of 96.70 on
Monday, having given up all the gains it had made following the election in November. Also on the Comex,
silver futures shed 7.1 cents, or about 0.4%, to $ 17.12 a troy ounce, after hitting its highest since May 1 at
$17.21 a day earlier.
ENERGY
Oil seesawed Friday as it struggled to recover from a slump overnight as an OPEC-led deal on extending output
cuts disappointed. U.S. crude was off 32 cents, or 0.65%, at $ 48.58 at 08:00 ET. Brent shed 37 cents, or 0.72%,
to $ 51.09. The market had already priced in the nine-month extension to output cuts to March of next year
agreed Thursday by OPEC and non-OPEC producers. The scale back remains at the 1.8 million barrels a day
agreed for the first half of this year. Investors are questioning to what extent the deal will encourage a further
rise in U.S. shale activity and what happens after the deal expires next year.
U.S. production has increased by over 10% since mid-2016 to some 9.3 million barrels a day. Baker Hughes rig
count data are due out later in the session.
U.S. oil prices moved higher on Friday, but the commodity still remained under pressure as the Organization of
Petrolium Exporting Countries’s decision to extend production cuts disappointed traders. U.S. crude futures for
July delivery were up 0.47% at $ 49.12 a barrel, off a one-week trough of $ 48.27 hit overnight. On the ICE
Futures Exchange in London, the July Brent contract climbed 0.52% to $ 51.74 a barrel, after hitting a two-
week low of $ 50.89 earlier in the day. Crude prices tumbled after OPEC agreed on Thursday to extend its
production cuts for nine extra months, citing delegates at a highly anticipated meeting in Vienna. However, the
move disappointed some traders who had hoped for longer or deeper cuts. In December last year, OPEC and 11
other non-OPEC producers, including Russia, agreed to cut output by about 1.8 million barrels per day between
January 1 and June 30 in what was the first joint accord in 15 years. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid al-
Falih had indicated that the major oil producers were likely to agree on extending production cuts for nine
months to March 2018 as widely expected, but also stated that the consensus among members was that deeper
cuts are not needed now.Among OPEC members, Nigeria and Libya will continue to be exempt from an output
cap while Iran’s output would remain at 3.8 million barrels per day. In any case, commodity strategists from
ING questioned why they were bothering to extend the agreement.
The OPEC-led decision to extend a production cut to March 2018 disappointed financial investors, prompting
an exit from oil futures markets, while refiners in Asia were mostly concerned with whether it meant they
would need to go hunting for crude. In Vienna, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and
some non-OPEC producers on Thursday extended a pledge to cut 1.8 million barrels per day of output until the
end of the first quarter of 2018. traders did not like what they heard, thinking it meant an ongoing oil glut. "The
market voted with its feet", dragging crude futures CLc1 LCOc1 down 5 percent to near $50 a barrel. In
physical markets, however, where tankers can take weeks or months to deliver up to $100 million in crude oil,
refiners want to know if they will be forced to search for new suppliers. "This is a declaration of a strong will of
OPEC as well as non-OPEC producers to tighten overall supply-demand," said Yasushi Kimura, president of
the Petroleum Association of Japan, and chairman of petroleum conglomerate JXTG Holdings 5020.T . To
ensure crude supplies, "we need to carefully monitor OPEC's production cut adherence," Kimura said.Crude is
by far the biggest cost for refiners and the petrochemical industry, shaking margins DUB-SIN-REF whenever
benchmark prices take broad swings.Kimura said the extended cuts could mean demand may exceed supply in
2017, which would be the first time in years. This would force refiners to start using up reserves, pushing up
prices at least until production catches back up with consumption.
"In 2017, global demand is likely to exceed supply ... and crude prices are likely to ... rise towards $60 by the
end of the year.
REAL SUPPLY CUTS?
So far, though, the cuts that started in January have barely dented supply in Asia, home to three of the world's
four biggest oil consumers. Exporters were keen to maintain global market share, and they cut domestic
supplies or shipments to marginal buyers. As a result, inventories in the big consumer markets have remained
bloated, and prices low. have not had any impact in terms of any cut from any of these sources into India," said
B. Ashok, chairman of Indian Oil Corp IOC.NS , the country's biggest petroleum company. OPEC sources said
that will change as top exporter Saudi Arabia especially is keen to see a visibly tighter market. Many refiners,
however, are still not expecting a real crude shortage, largely due to ample alternative supplies. "Crudes that
can be processed in our refineries include crudes from the U.S. We have procured some crude even from
Canada. We have been procuring crude from Latin America ... Africa, Russia," Ashok said.
ALTERNATIVES AT A PRICE
U.S. producers have become a key alternative source of supply as their output - largely due to shale oil - has
soared by 10 percent since mid-2016 to 9.3 million bpd C-OUT-T-EIA , close to Saudi Arabia's and Russia's
levels. These producers have been fast to fill OPEC's gap, with an average of 374,000 bpd of crude from the
United States coming to Asia in the first four months of 2017, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters
Oil Research and Forecasts. That compares with an average of just 48,000 bpd in 2016. "The cut in OPEC
supplies will be offset by higher U.S. crude production," said KY Lin, spokesman for Formosa Petrochemical
Corp. 6505.TW , one of Asia's biggest refiners and petrochemical producers.
Still, expect prices to gradually rise towards the beginning of 2018 as the market tightens. consumers may have
to live with higher prices as OPEC and its allies hold back output, the longer the policy lasts, the more the
cartel risks losing permanent market share.
"In response to ... OPEC production cuts we are working on diversification of crude oil import sources and
looking beyond the Middle East.
Oil markets remained weak on Friday after tumbling in the previous session when OPEC and allied producers
extended output cuts but disappointed investors betting on longer or larger supply curbs.
At Thursday's meeting in Vienna, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some non-OPEC
producers agreed to extend a pledge to cut around 1.8 million barrels per day until the end of the first quarter of
2018. The initial agreement would have expired in June this year. oil plunged 5 percent following the
announcement, and held its losses early on Friday. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $51.47 per barrel
at 0125 GMT, up just 1 cent from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were back
below $50, at $48.88, down 2 cents from their previous close.Britain's Barclays bank said the price falls were a
result of some expectations ahead the meeting for longer or deeper production cuts. "Some market participants
may have expected either a deeper cut, a longer one, inclusion of more countries, or other such icing on the
cake. Barclays said the ongoing production cut would result in a drawdown of bloated fuel inventories, but
added that OPEC's goal of bringing stocks down to their five-year average would not be reached within the
timeframe of the production cut. Other analysts, including at Goldman Sachs and Jefferies bank said a
normalization of oil inventories would occur in early 2018.
Analysts also said that the OPEC-led production cuts would support a further rise in U.S. output.
Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said that the "decision in Vienna
sends a signal of continued support for oil prices from OPEC which helps U.S. onshore drillers make plans" to
further increase their production.U.S. oil production has already risen by 10 percent since mid-2016 to over 9.3
million bpd, close to the output of top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia."
Oil sank Thursday as it shed early gains of about 1% as OPEC signaled a nine-month extension of output cuts
of the same magnitude. U.S. crude was off 80 cents, or 1.56% at $50.56 at 08:00 ET. Brent lost 70 cents, or
1.30%, to $53.26. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said OPEC and non-OPEC producers are likely to
agree to a nine-month extension. However, he also said deeper cuts are not needed for the meanwhile.
An official OPEC statement is due out later in the session. OPEC and non-OPEC producers are cutting output
by 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half. The expected decision to extend the time frame for the cuts comes
after a further increase in U.S. shale activity. U.S. production has risen by over 10% since mid-2016 to some
9.3 million barrels a day.
Oil shed gains of about 1% Thursday as OPEC signals 9-month extension of output cuts of the same size. U.S.
crude was off 14 cents, or 0.27%, at $51.22 at 05:30 ET. Brent lost 4 cents, or 0.07%, to $53.92.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said OPEC and non-OPEC producers are likely to agree to a nine-month
extension. However, he said deeper cuts are not needed now. OPEC and non-OPEC producers are cutting
output by 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half.
Oil prices were higher in European trading on Thursday, touching a fresh five-week high ahead of an OPEC
meeting later in the global day. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude July contract hit its strongest since
April 19 at $ 51.93 a barrel in overnight trade. It was last at $ 51.73 by 3:20AM ET, up 37 cents, or around
0.7%. Elsewhere, Brent oil for July delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London tacked on 43 cents to
$54.38 a barrel, after climbing to its highest since April 19 at $ 54.62 a day earlier.
Oil ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producing countries will
meet in Vienna on Thursday to decide whether to extend their current production agreement beyond a June 30-
deadline. In November last year, OPEC and 11 other non-OPEC producers, including Russia, agreed to cut
output by about 1.8 million barrels per day between January 1 and June 30.
Most market analysts expect the oil cartel to extend output cuts for a further nine months until March 2018,
instead of six months as previously expected. There is also talk that OPEC is looking at the option of deepening
current production cuts, but it is not clear whether there would be support for that.
So far, the production-cut agreement has had little impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from
producers not participating in the accord, such as Libya, and a relentless increase in U.S. shale oil output. The
U.S. rig count rose for the 18th week in a row to the highest level since April 2015 last week, implying that
further gains in domestic production are ahead. Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for June inched up 0.9
cents, or 0.5%, to $1.661 a gallon, while June heating oil advanced 1.2 cents to $1.618 a gallon. Natural gas
futures for July delivery climbed 1.1 cents to $3.311 per million British thermal units, as traders looked ahead
to weekly storage data due later in the global day.
Oil prices rose ahead of an OPEC meeting on Thursday that is expected to extend output cuts into 2018, adding
at least nine months to an initial six-month curb in the first half of this year.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $ 54.41 per barrel at 0539 GMT, up 45 cents, or 0.8 percent from
their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were up 40 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $ 51.76.
Both benchmarks have climbed over 16 percent from their May lows. Prices have risen on a consensus that a
pledge by the OPEC Countries and other producers, including Russia, to cut supplies by 1.8 million barrels per
day would be extended into 2018, instead of covering only the first half of 2017. was rife that the cuts may be
extended by nine and possibly 12 months. The production cut, introduced in January, was initially only to cover
the first half of 2017, but an ongoing glut has put pressure on OPEC and its allies to extend at a meeting in
Vienna on Thursday. is widely expected the cartel will, at a minimum, extend its production quota for another
nine months. An extended production cut was already "factored into the price of oil", adding that is was
unlikely that a deeper cut would be announced at this stage.
"OPEC officials prefer ... to wait and see the impact of an extension in helping rebalance the market prior to
taking any more drastic actions. Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said a nine-month extension "would
have little impact on our price forecast for 2017, which is for an annual average of $55 per barrel for Brent". It
estimated that a nine-month extension would result in a 950,000 bpd production increase in the United States,
undermining OPEC's efforts. U.S. oil production C-OUT-T-EIA has already risen by more than 10 percent since
mid-2016 to over 9.3 million bpd as its drillers take advantage of higher prices and the supply gap left by
OPEC and its allies. Should the meeting in Vienna result in a cut extension to cover all of 2018, Wood
Mackenzie said the tighter market could push average 2018 Brent prices up to $63 per barrel. Brent has
averaged $53.90 per barrel so far this year. If the meeting fails to agree an extended cut, traders expect oil
prices to fall as this would result in ongoing oversupply.
Oil prices rose ahead of an OPEC meeting on Thursday that is expected to extend a production cut aimed at
tightening the market well into 2018, adding at least nine months to an initial six-month cut in the first half of
this year. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $ 54.40 per barrel at 0118 GMT, up 44 cents, or 0.82
percent from their last close. U.S. WTI crude futures CLc1 were at $51.76, up 40 cents, or 0.78 percent. Both
benchmarks have risen more than 16 percent from their May lows.
Prices have risen on a consensus that a pledge by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and
other producers, including Russia, to cut supplies by 1.8 million barrels per day would be extended into 2018,
instead of just covering the first half of this year. production cut, introduced in January, was initially only to
cover the first half of 2017, but an ongoing glut has meant that OPEC and its allies who are meeting in Vienna
on Thursday are expected to extend the cut by nine or potentially even 12 months. strong consensus has
developed that producer supply cuts will be extended. The only question is the choice of the duration. "This
(extension) has been highly factored into the price of oil, and at this stage it is unlikely that we will see a
deepening in the level of production cuts, with OPEC officials preferring to wait and see the impact of an
extension in helping rebalance the market prior to taking any more drastic actions," Energy consultancy Wood
Mackenzie said "a nine-month extension would have little impact on our price forecast for 2017, which is for
an annual average of $55 per barrel for Brent." Wood Mackenzie estimated that a nine-month extension would
result in a 950,000 bpd production increase in the United States, undermining OPEC. U.S. oil production C-
OUT-T-EIA has already risen by more than 10 percent since mid-2016 to over 9.3 million bpd as its drillers
take advantage of higher prices and the supply gap left by OPEC and its allies.
Should the meeting in Vienna result in a cut extension to cover all of 2018, Wood Mackenzie said the tighter
market could push average 2018 Brent prices up to $63 per barrel. Brent has averaged $53.90 per barrel so far
this year. Should the meeting in Vienna fail to agree an extended cut, traders expect oil prices to fall as this
would result in ongoing oversupply.Oil was flat Wednesday amid confidence major producers will agree to
extended an output cut deal.U.S. crude was up 3 cents, or 0.06%, at $ 51.50 at 08:15 ET. Brent added 5 cents,
or 0.09%, to $ 54.20.OPEC and non-OPEC have agreed to cut output by 1.8 million barrels a day in the first
half. The adherents to the deal are due to meet Thursday to decide on an extension of the deal for another nine
months. Goldman Sachs said the proposal to sell off half of the U.S. strategic petroleum reserves over 10 years
would have little impact. The American Petroleum Institute Tuesday reported a fall of 1.5 million barrels in
U.S. crude stocks in the latest week. The Energy Information Administration is forecast to report Wednesday a
fall of 2.42 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories.
BASE METAL’S OUTLOOK :
Trading Ideas:
Nickel -
 Nickel trading range for the day is 575.5-591.1.
 Nickel gained on short covering tracking LME prices after trade data showed that the Philippines is
ramping up ore exports to China.
 BHP Billiton is seeking environmental approval to dig two new mines to extend the life of its Nickel
West unit in the state of Western Australia.
 U.S. orders for long lasting manufactured goods fell less than forecast in April, although the core
reading unexpectedly dipped.
Zinc -
 Zinc trading range for the day is 167.6-172.2.
 Zinc gained as support seen after Shanghai zinc inventories fell to their lowest in more than two years at
91,749 tonnes.
 Zinc spot premiums in Guangdong contracted rapidly due to increased supplies.
 The National Bureau of Statistics data show China’s zinc production fell 5.6% year-on-year to 474,000
tonnes in April.
Copper -
 Copper trading range for the day is 361.3-375.7.
 Copper dropped as momentum sparked by a strike at copper mines, Indonesia's Grasberg, eased ahead of
the long weekend break in China, the U.S. and Britain.
 Freeport McMoRan Inc said that mining and milling rates at its Grasberg mine in Papua, Indonesia have
been affected by an extended strike.
 China bonded copper premiums jumped $10 to $75, off the year's lows to the highest since March amid
draw downs from Chinese exchange inventories.
BASE METAL
NICKEL✍ ( 25th
- May - 2017 )
Amid a weak trend in global market and subdued domestic demand, nickel traded 0.15 per cent lower at Rs
588.90 per kg in futures trade today as speculators reduced their bets. In futures trading at the Multi
Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in current month was trading down by 90 paise, or 0.15 per cent, at
Rs 588.90 per kg, in a business turnover of 256 lots. The metal for delivery in June was also down by a similar
margin to trade at Rs. 594.90 per kg, in a business turnover of 66 lots.
Analysts said the fall in nickel prices was mostly in line with a weakening trend in select base metals at the
London Metal Exchange after Moody's Investors Service downgraded China's credit rating and warned that the
country's debt position will worsen as its economic expansion slows.
ALUMINIUM✍ - ( 25th
- May - 2017 )
Aluminium prices were down by 0.28 per cent to Rs 125.75 per kg in futures market today as speculators cut
down their holdings, tracking a weak trend in base metals overseas and subdued demand at domestic spot
markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in May fell by 35 paise, or 0.28 per cent
to Rs 125.75 per kg in business turnover of 95 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in June contracts traded
lower by 25 paise, or 0.20 per cent to Rs 125.75 per kg in 15 lots.
Analysts said apart from a weak trend in the base metals pack at the London Metal Exchange after Moody's
Investors Service downgraded China's credit rating and warned the country's debt position will worsen as its
economic expansion slows, low demand at the domestic markets, led to fall in aluminium prices at futures trade
here.
ZINC✍ ( 25th
- May - 2017 )
Falling for the second day, zinc prices eased further by 0.70 per cent to Rs 170.10 per kg in futures trade today
as speculators engaged in trimming their positions, tracking a weak trend at spot market on muted demand.
Besides, slump in copper and other industrial metals at the London Metal Exchange too weighed on sentiments
in futures trade. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in May declined by Rs 1.20, or 0.70 per
cent, to Rs 170.10 per kg, in a business turnover of 391 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in far-month June
traded lower by a similar margin to Rs 170.60 per kg in 17 lots.
NICKEL✍ ( 26- May - 2017 )
Nickel prices rose 0.60 per cent to Rs 585.50 per kg in futures trading today as participants raised their bets
amid pick up in industrial demand at the domestic spot markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for
delivery in May month went up by Rs 3.50, or 0.60 per cent to Rs 585.50 per kg in business turnover of 947
lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in June month contracts traded higher by Rs 3.10, or 0.53 per cent to Rs
591.20 per kg in 593 lots. Analysts said widening of positions by traders on the back of pick up in demand from
alloy-makers in the spot market supported nickel prices at futures trade.
ALUMINIUM✍ ( 24- May - 2017 )
Amid pick up in demand at domestic spot market, aluminium prices were up by 0.24 per cent to Rs 126.60 per
kg in futures trade today as speculators built up fresh positions. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium
for delivery in May edged up by 30 paise, or 0.24 per cent, to Rs 126.60 per kg, in a business turnover of 209
lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in June traded higher by 25 paise, or 0.20 per cent, to Rs 126.60 per kg in
53 lots. Analysts said fresh positions created by participants after uptick in demand from consuming industries
in the spot market mainly led to the rise in aluminium prices at futures trade.
ZINC✍ ( 24- May - 2017 )
Supported by an upsurge in demand from consuming industries at domestic spot market, zinc prices moved up
by 0.21 per cent to Rs 169.90 per kg in futures market today as participants created fresh positions. At the Multi
Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in May edged up by 35 paise, or 0.21 per cent, to Rs 169.90 per kg, in
a business turnover of 472 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in June traded higher by 15 paise, or 0.09 per
cent, to Rs 170.30 per kg in 35 lots. Analysts said fresh positions built up by participants, tracking a firm at the
domestic spot market on pick up in demand from consuming industries, mainly influenced zinc prices at futures
trade
LEAD✍ ( 24- May - 2017 )
Lead prices edged higher 0.41 per cent to Rs 134.80 per kg in futures trading today as speculators built up fresh
positions amid pick up in domestic demand. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in May
traded higher by 55 paise, or 0.41 per cent, to Rs 134.80 per kg, in a business turnover of 396 lots. On similar
lines, the metal for delivery in June was trading up by 50 paise, or 0.37 per cent, to Rs 135.90 per kg in 40 lots.
Analysts attributed the rise in lead futures to fresh positions created by traders due to pick up in demand from
battery-makers at the spot market.
ZINC✍ ( 22 - May - 2017 )
China is likely to step up imports of refined zinc from this month, industry sources said on Friday, as dwindling
global supplies of concentrate hit local output of the metal, used to galvanise steel. China's refined zinc output
marked its lowest in more than two years in April as the impact from the closure of major mines in places such
as Australia and Ireland stifled the concentrate supplies China relies on to churn out finished metal.
Nickel futures fall 0.40% on global cues, profit-booking. - ( 19 - May - 2017 )
Nickel futures traded 0.40 per cent lower at Rs 597.50 per kg today as participants reduced exposure amid
weak global cues and profit-booking. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in June fell Rs
2.40, or 0.40 per cent, to Rs 597.50 per kg, in a business turnover of 128 lots. Also, the metal for delivery in
May was trading down Rs 2.30, or 0.39 per cent lower, at Rs 591.90 per kg in 907 lots. Market analysts said,
apart from profit-booking by participants, a weak trend in select base metals overseas, weighed on nickel
futures.
Copper futures rise on spot demand - ( 19 - May - 2017 )
Copper futures traded 0.21 per cent higher at Rs 365.30 per kg today as speculators enlarged positions amid
firming trend at the domestic spot markets. However, weakness in metal overseas, capped the gains. In futures
trade, copper for delivery in June was trading higher by 75 paise, or 0.21 per cent, at Rs 365.30 per kg in a
business turnover of 710 lots at Multi Commodity Exchange. Similarly, the metal for delivery in far-month
August edged up by 25 paise, or 0.07 per cent, at Rs 368.80 per kg in 2 lots.
Lead futures down 0.66 per cent hurt by muted demand ( 18 - May - 2017 ) -
Lead prices were trading down 0.66 per cent to Rs 134.55 per kg amid muted domestic demand in futures
trading today as participants trimmed exposure. Lead for delivery in May declined by 90 paise, or 0.66 per
cent, to Rs 134.55 per kg in a business turnover of 190 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in June shed 85
paise, or 0.63 per cent, to Rs 135.10 per kg in six lots. Marketmen said the fall in lead futures was due to a
weak trend at the domestic markets owing to muted demand from consuming industries, particularly, battery-
makers.
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES OF NCDEX MARKET -
REFINED SOYA✍ ( 26- May - 2017 )
Refined soya oil prices drifted lower by 1.05 per cent to Rs 626.50 per 10 kg in futures trade today as
participants booked profits amid easing demand in the spot market against adequate stocks position. At the
National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in far-month July fell by Rs 6.65,
or 1.05 per cent, to Rs 626.50 per 10 kg, with an open interest of 33,160 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in
June traded lower by Rs 6.10, or 0.97 per cent, to Rs 625.60 per 10 kg in 42,510 lots. Analysts said besides
profit booking by traders at prevailing levels, fall in demand in the spot market against sufficient stocks
position, mainly led to the decline in refined soya oil prices at futures trade.
WHEAT✍ ( 26- May - 2017)
Wheat prices eased by 0.25 per cent to Rs 1,597 per quintal in futures market today as speculators cut down
their positions, triggered by adequate stocks position on increased supplies from growing regions at spot
markets. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, wheat for delivery in June declined by Rs 4,
or 0.25 per cent, to Rs 1,597 per quintal, with an open interest of 19,330 lots. On similar lines, the wheat for
delivery in July traded lower by a similar margin to Rs 1,620 per quintal in 8,830 lots. Analysts said offloading
of positions by traders, driven by sufficient stocks positions on increased arrivals from producing belts in the
physical market mainly kept wheat prices lower at futures trade.
PALM OIL✍ ( 26- May - 2017 )
Crude palm oil prices were down by Rs 4.90 to Rs 505 per 10 kg in futures trade today as traders offloaded
positions due to subdued demand in spot markets. Furthermore, higher supplies from major producing areas
and weak trend at overseas markets weighed on crude palm oil prices at futures trade, analysts said. At the
Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in June eased by Rs 4.90, or 0.96 per cent, to Rs 505
per 10 kg, in a business turnover of 368 lots. The oil for delivery in current month traded lower by Rs 3, or 0.58
per cent, to Rs 517 per 10 kg in 81 lots.
MENTHA OIL✍ ( 26- May - 2017 )
Mentha oil prices were up by 1.95 per cent to Rs 982.20 per kg in futures trade today as investors extended
their positions amid rising demand from consuming industries in the domestic spot market.
Further, tight stocks position following restricted arrivals from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh in the physical
market supported the upside in mentha oil prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery
in current month gained Rs 18.80, or 1.95 per cent, to Rs 982.20 per kg, with a trading volume of 116 lots.
Similarly, the oil for delivery in June edged up by Rs 6, or 0.66 per cent, to Rs 914 per kg, with a business
turnover of 35 lots. Marketmen said a firming trend at the spot markets amid restricted supplies from
Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, mainly influenced mentha oil prices at the futures trade.
CRUDE PALM OIL✍ ( 25 - May - 2017 )
Crude palm oil prices were up by 0.52 per cent to Rs 514.10 per 10 kg in futures trade today as traders created
fresh positions, supported by pick up in demand at the spot market. Besides, tight stocks position on fall in
supplies from producing belts too fuelled the uptrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for
delivery in June month rose by Rs 2.70, or 0.52 per cent, to Rs 514.10 per 10 kg, in a business turnover of 381
lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery this month went up by Rs 1.30, or 0.25 per cent, to Rs 521.50 per 10 kg in
100 lots. Analysts said widening of positions by participants driven by pick up in demand in the spot market
against tight stocks position on restricted supplies from producing regions mainly kept crude palm oil prices
higher at futures trade
MENTHA OIL✍ ( 25- May - 2017 )
Mentha oil prices were up 1.01 per cent to Rs 967.90 per kg in futures market today as participants raised their
holdings on the back of pick up in spot demand from consuming industries. Besides, tight stocks position
following restricted arrivals from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh also provided support to
mentha oil prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery this month rose Rs 9.70, or 1.01
per cent, to Rs 967.90 per kg, clocking a business volume of 72 lots. The oil for June traded higher by Rs 5, or
0.55 per cent, to Rs 912.30 per kg, with a trading volume of 53 lots. Analysts said raising of bets by
speculators, driven by rising demand from consuming industries in the spot markets against restricted supplies
from Chandausi led to the rise in mentha oil prices in futures trade.
CASTOR SEED✍ ( 24- May - 2017 )
Castor seed prices recovered sharply by Rs 42 to Rs 4,528 per quintal in futures trading after speculators
accumulated positions at prevailing existing levels amid a firm trend at the domestic spot markets. Marketmen
said fresh positions created by participants at current levels amid a firm trend in spot markets on the back of
revived demand from paint and lubricant industries, mostly supported the rally in castor seed prices in futures
trade. Besides, emergence of export demand too boosted sentiments, they added. At the National Commodity
and Derivatives Exchange, castor seed for July delivery recovered by Rs 42, or 0.94 per cent, to Rs 4,528 per
quintal, with an open interest of 24,240 lots. On a similar line, castor seed for delivery in most- active June was
trading higher by Rs 40, or 0.91 per cent, to Rs 4,459 per quintal, in an open interest of 90,470 lots
22 - May - 2017 -
US wheat rose nearly 1 percent on Monday as forecasts for heavy rains across a key US growing region pushed
the grain to a two-week high.
FUNDAMENTALS
The most active wheat futures on the Chicago Board Of Trade rose 0.9 per cent to $ 4.39 a bushel by 0105 GM,
near the session high of $ 4.39-1/4 a bushel - the highest since May 8. Wheat closed up 2.2 per cent on Friday.
The most active soybean futures rose 0.4 per cent to $9.57 a bushel, having firmed 0.9 per cent on Friday. The
most active corn futures rose 0.3 per cent to $3.73-1/2 a bushel, having gained 1.8 per cent in the previous
session. Wheat draws support as forecasts for rains across the United States stoke fears of production losses.
Heavy rains also support corn, which has edged higher amid fears of further planting delays. Soybeans and
corn were under pressure last week amid a slump in the Brazilian real, which saw farmers rush to sell their
record supplies.
Ample stocks drag down wheat futures by 0.48% ( 19 - May - 2017 )
Wheat prices fell 0.48 per cent to Rs 1,651 per quintal in futures trade today as speculators cut down their
positions, triggered by ample stocks on increased supplies from growing regions at spot markets. At the
National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, wheat for delivery in July declined by Rs 8, or 0.48 per cent to
Rs 1,651 per quintal with an open interest of 4,720 lots. Likewise, the wheat for delivery in June contracts
traded lower by Rs 7, or 0.43 per cent to Rs 1,624 per quintal in 20,250 lots. Analysts said offloading of
positions by traders, triggered by sufficient stocks positions on increased arrivals from producing belts in the
physical market mainly attributed the fall in wheat prices at futures trade.
CARDAMOM✍ 19 - May - 2017 -
Cardamom remained weak and prices fell by another 1.12 per cent to Rs 1,004 per kg in futures trade today as
speculators engaged in reducing bets, taking negative cues from spot market on fall in demand. Besides, ample
stocks position on increased arrivals from producing regions fuelled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity
Exchange, cardamom for delivery in June eased by Rs 11.40, or 1.12 per cent, to Rs 1,004 per kg in a business
turnover of 29 lots.
Mentha oil futures maintain downtrend on sluggish demand - ( 19- May - 2017 )
Extending a falling streak for the fourth straight day, mentha oil prices fell further by 0.62 per cent to Rs 917.10
per kg in futures trading today as speculators engaged in reducing positions, driven by easing demand in the
spot market. Besides, adequate stocks position on increased arrivals from producing belts put pressure on
mentha oil prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in June declined by Rs 5.70, or
0.62 per cent, to Rs 917.10 per kg in a business turnover of 67 lots.
PALM OIL✍ ( 19- May - 2017 ) -
Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Thursday evening, tracking weaker soya oil on the Chicago Board of Trade
and other related edible oils on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange. The benchmark palm oil contract for
August delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was down 0.6% at 2,626 ringgit ($607.03) a
tonne by the close. Most commodities, including US soya oil, were dragged down by a negative US Dow Jones
index, said a Kuala Lumpur-based futures trader. The Dow recorded its biggest one-day fall since September on
reports that US President Trump tried to interfere with a federal investigation.
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Commodity Research Report 29 May 2017 Ways2Capital

  • 1.
  • 2. BULLION METALS OUTLOOK - GOLD -Gold have been getting Support for week for Bullish rally but we thinks this is more of a short-term reaction to subsiding geopolitical fears and reiterates his long-term bullish outlook based on a number of fundamental drivers. In early May, the price of gold was roughly $ 1,250 an ounce. Last week, Spot gold prices rose 0.9 percent to close at $1266.7/oz, while MCX gold prices rose by same margin to close at Rs. 28888 per 10 gms. The dollar slipped and minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting suggested the U.S. central bank was cautious about raising interest rates. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's early May meeting showed policymakers agreed to not tighten credit until they saw evidence that a recent economic slowdown was transitory. Federal Funds Futures imply traders see an 83 percent chance of a U.S. rate hike in June, and a 46 percent chance of two more hikes by the year-end. Gold has been supported by weakening U.S. economic data and troubles facing U.S. President Donald Trump, all of which have weighed on the greenback. From a week perspective, we expect gold prices to trade higher towards $ 1280 mark while MCX gold prices will trade higher towards Rs. 29400 mark. Technically Gold is getting Strong Support around 28750 break below this could drag the Prices toward 28690-28560, or Sustaining above 28800 precious metal may move towards 28973-29113 on next week trading session. GOLD CHART Chart Details -On The Above given daily Chart of Gold has Applied the Bollinger Band as well Parabolic SAR both indicators are trading on Overbought position, Although the trend may be continue till new high of gold. As of Now the Crucial Resistance level for Gold is Around at 29200 level or 28700 will be Strong Support as per Technical Analysis. If metal Sustain Above 28800 level the Gold may create the high of 2900-29200 in next trading session or below 28700 may drag toward 28500 in near Term. Monday, 29 .May .2017
  • 3. SILVER -Silver on MCX settled up 0.73% at 40091 as the dollar retreated with investors shying away from riskier assets following a tumble in oil prices. President Donald Trump reportedly said Friday at his bilateral meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that the “big problem” of North Korea’s ambitions for a nuclear weapon will be dealt with, telling reporters that “you can bet on that, Pressure seen on prices in the week after minutes from the Fed appeared to show that the majority of the central bank’s officials remain resolute about hiking rates at their meeting in June. U.S. orders for long lasting manufactured goods fell less than forecast in April, although the core reading unexpectedly dipped, giving a mixed symbol for the U.S. economy at the beginning of the second quarter, according to official data. Technically MCX Silver is getting support at 39859 and below same could see a test of 39627 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 40259, a move above could see prices testing 40427. SILVER CHART Detail of Chart -From the Above Depict Daily Chart of Silver We could Analyze the trend of Precious metal for upcoming trend session. As the Silver is trading in the Crucial levels for Silver is around at 39620-39820 is Down Side or its middle bands which will be crucial breakout for any negative trend and 39980 which is Upper Band will work as Crucial Resistance level for the Precious metal. The Significance levels as per Technical Analysis 39950 is Up side and 38700 is Down side.
  • 4. MCX DAILY LEVELS✍ DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 ALUMINIUM 31- MAY-17 132 130 128 127 126 125 124 122 120 COPPER 30- JUNE-2017 389 382 375 371 368 364 361 354 347 CRUDE OIL 19-JUNE-17 3487 3386 3285 3249 3184 3148 3083 2982 2881 GOLD 05-JUNE-2017 29429 29230 29031 28960 28832 28761 28633 28434 28235 LEAD 31- MAY-2017 147 143 139 138 135 134 131 127 123 NATURAL GAS 25-MAY2017 231 225 219 217 213 211 207 201 195 NICKEL 31- MAY-2017 603 596 589 587 582 580 575 568 561 SILVER 05-JULY-2017 41227 40827 40427 40259 40027 39859 39627 39227 38827 ZINC 31- MAY-2017 179 176 173 171 170 168 167 164 161 MCX WEEKLY LEVELS✍ WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 ALUMINIUM 31- MAY-17 134 121 128 127 125 124 122 119 116 COPPER 30- JUNE-2017 396 387 378 372 369 363 360 351 342 CRUDE OIL 19-JUNE-17 3987 3736 3485 3349 3234 3098 2983 2732 2481 GOLD 05-JUNE-2017 29964 29538 29167 29027 28796 28656 28425 28054 27683 LEAD 31- MAY-2017 150 145 140 138 135 133 130 125 120 NATURAL GAS 25-MAY2017 247 235 223 218 211 206 199 185 177 NICKEL 31- MAY-2017 680 650 620 602 590 572 560 530 500 SILVER 05-JULY-2017 43186 42064 40942 40516 39820 39394 38698 37576 36454 ZINC 31- MAY-2017 182 178 174 172 170 168 166 162 158
  • 5. FOREX DAILY LEVELS✍ DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 USDINR 28-JUNE-17 65.12 64.72 64.65 64.60 64.53 64.48 64.41 64.36 64.30 EURINR 28-JUNE-17 72.52 72.44 72.36 72.25 72.17 72.06 71.98 71.87 71.76 GBPINR 28-JUNE-17 83.26 83.13 83.00 82.90 82.77 82.67 82.54 82.44 82.32 JPYINR 28-JUNE-17 58.44 58.34 58.24 58.18 58.08 58.02 57.92 57.86 57.80 FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍ WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 USDINR 28-JUNE-17 65.79 64.78 64.88 64.72 64.58 64.42 64.33 64.12 64.03 EURINR 28-JUNE-17 73.25 73.03 72.81 72.45 72.23 71.87 71.65 71.29 70.93 GBPINR 28-JUNE-17 85.67 85.07 84.47 83.44 82.84 81.81 81.21 80.18 79.75 JPYINR 28-JUNE-17 61.19 60.60 60.01 58.88 58.29 57.16 56.57 55.44 54.88
  • 6. NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍ DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 SYOREFIDR 20-JUNE-2017 648 640 632 627 624 619 616 608 600 SYBEANIDR 20-JUNE-2017 2964 2892 2820 2791 2748 2719 2676 2604 2532 RMSEED 20-JUNE-2017 3758 3691 3624 3598 3557 3531 3490 3423 3356 JEERAUNJHA 20-JUNE-2017 19160 18700 18240 18060 17780 17600 17320 16860 16400 GUARSEED10 20-JUNE-2017 3793 3703 3613 3575 3523 3485 3433 3343 3253 TMC 20-JUNE-2017 5713 5611 5509 5467 5407 5365 5305 5203 5101 NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍ WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 SYOREFIDR 20-JUNE-2017 685 666 647 634 628 615 609 590 571 SYBEANIDR 20-JUNE-2017 3218 3070 2922 2841 2774 2693 2626 2478 2330 RMSEED 20-JUNE-2017 4102 3932 3762 3666 3592 3496 3422 3252 3082 JEERAUNJHA 20-JUNE-2017 20173 19403 18633 18257 17863 17487 17093 16323 15553 GUARSEED10 20-JUNE-2017 4133 3941 3749 3643 3557 3451 3365 3173 2981 TMC 20-JUNE-2017 6831 6351 5871 5547 5391 5067 4911 4431 3951
  • 7. MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )✍ GOLD✍ Gold demand in Asia tapered off this week as buyers took to the sidelines in India to await a new national tax policy and as China entered a seasonal slowdown. Spot gold XAU= , trading on Friday at just below $1,270 an ounce, has gained 4 percent since hitting an eight-week low of $1,213.81 on May 9. Prior to the rise in spot prices due to the uncertain political situation in the United States, bullion buyers in India had been building stocks ahead of a national sales tax that takes effect on July 1. week, though, gold demand in India slumped as jewellers became more cautious."Retail demand is weak ... Jewellers are now waiting for a clear price trend and the new tax system," said Harshad Ajmera, president of the Indian Association of Hallmarking Centres. The new goods and services tax will replace a slew of federal and state levies from July 1, but the government has yet to fix a tax rate for gold under the GST. The government is likely to finalise the tax rate for gold on June 3. higher tax rates, many jewellers have been buying gold the last few months, and this could mean India's imports are set to plunge during the usual period of peak demand in the second half of the year. in India were charging a premium of up to $1 an ounce this week over official domestic prices, unchanged from last week. The domestic price includes a 10 percent import tax. "From the next week, gold could start trading in discount. In the last few months, banks have imported much more gold than demand," said a Mumbai-based bank dealer with a private bank. In China, the world's top consumer of gold, demand for the yellow metal has weakened as May-June is usually a quiet period for jewellers. But traders said they expect festive buying will boost demand in August and September. "There is not too much demand with prices hovering between $1,250-$1,260," said Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong. Premiums in China were seen at $7 an ounce, down from $10 last week, traders said. In Hong Kong, premiums were priced in at 60 cents to $1 an ounce, unchanged from the week before. Prices in Tokyo were quoted at a discount of 50 cents, also unchanged from last week. Premiums in Singapore were almost unchanged at $1 as against $1-$1.20 the previous Gold prices moved higher on Friday, but gains were expected to remain limited as the greenback recovered from recent losses posted after the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s meeting. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery were up 0.43% at $ 1,261.83. The June contract ended Thursday’s session 0.26% higher at $1,256.40 an ounce. Futures were likely to find support at $1,247.60, the low of May 24 and resistance at $1,263.80, the high of May 23. The greenback regained some ground thanks to Thursday’s better than expected U.S. initial jobless claims data. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.09% at 97.24. A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it weakens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.
  • 8. The data came a day after the minutes of the Fed’s May meeting showed that the central bank plans to unwind its balance sheet towards the end of the year, possibly using a system where cap limits are implemented on how much the Fed would roll off every month without reinvesting. The Fed also signaled that interest rates could be raised soon, but added that "it would be prudent" to wait for more U.S. economic data. Market participants were looking ahead to U.S. data on durable goods orders, first-quarter economic growth and consumer sentiment due later in the day. Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for July delivery rose 0.23% to $17.233 a troy ounce, while copper futures for July delivery were steady at $2.598 a pound. Gold prices were higher in European trade on Thursday, staying near the strongest level in around three weeks as the U.S. dollar slipped after the Federal Reserve signaled a cautious approach to future rate hikes and the reduction of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet. Comex gold futures rose $ 5.00, or around 0.4%, to $ 1,258.07 a troy ounce by 2:35AM ET. Meanwhile, spot gold was at $ 1,258.24, not far from a three-week peak of $1,263.80 touched on Tuesday. Also on the Comex, silver futures tacked on 12.6 cents, or about 0.7%, to $17.24 a troy ounce, just shy of a one-month high of $17.30 scaled earlier this week. Minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting showed policymakers agreed they should hold off on raising interest rates until it was clear a recent U.S. economic slowdown was temporary, though most said a hike was coming soon. The minutes also showed that policymakers favored a gradual reduction in its massive balance sheet. Fed staff proposed that the central bank set a cap on the amount of bonds that would be allowed to run off each month, initially setting it at a low level and raising it every three months. The somewhat dovish minutes prompted traders to scale back bets on two more rate increases by the end of the year. Futures traders are currently pricing in around an 77% chance of a hike at the Fed's June meeting,while odds for a second rate hike by December were at about 40%. The median Fed policymaker forecast is for two more rate increases by year- end. But a recent run of disappointing U.S. economic data combined with signs of deepening political turmoil in the White House raised doubts over the Fed's ability to raise rates as much as it would like before the end of the year. As investors looked ahead to minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting due later in the global day for further hints on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike. Comex gold futures shed $6.20, or around 0.5%, to $ 1,249.21 a troy ounce by 3:25AM ET. Meanwhile, spot gold was at $ 1,249.52. Prices of the yellow metal lost around $ 6.00 on Tuesday, as the U.S. dollar pulled away from recent six-and-a-half-month lows. The Fed will release minutes of its most recent policy meeting at 2:00PM ET, as traders seek further insight into the likelihood of higher interest rates in the months ahead. The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged following its meeting on May 3 and gave a positive assessment of the U.S. economy, suggesting it was still on track for two more rate hikes this year.But a recent run of disappointing U.S. economic data combined with signs of deepening political turmoil in the White House saw investors temper expectations for higher interest rates in the months ahead. Futures traders are currently pricing in around an 80% chance of a hike at the Fed's June meeting as per analyst expectation while odds for a second rate hike by December were at about 40%.
  • 9. India's gold imports could plunge in 2017 during the traditional period of peak demand in the second half of the year, after jewellers have aggressively restocked inventory ahead of a national sales tax that takes effect on July 1. Lower imports from the world's second-biggest consumer during its high-demand season could drag on global gold prices XAU= that have gained nearly 10 percent this year as political turmoil in the United States has raised expectations of a slower pace of interest rate hikes this year. Gold imports typically strengthen in the second half of a year as the precious metal is considered an auspicious gift at weddings and festivals such as Diwali and Dussehra. But the timing of strong purchases looks backwards this year, as the implementation of a Goods and Services Tax that will replace a slew of federal and state levies has buyers cramming their major activity into the first half of 2017. This (strong buying) trend will not continue in the coming months," said James Jose, secretary of the Association of Gold Refineries and Mints, referring to the tripling in the value of gold imports in April. of GST, some people are stocking up fearing higher tax, but demand has been falling (more recently)," he said. India's gold imports could hit 450 tonnes in the first half of the year, more than double from the same period in 2016, Imports could then fall to 250 tonnes in the second half, about 40 percent lower than a five-year average for the period of 403 tonnes. Gold imports in the second half of 2016 were 313.8 tonnes, up 60 percent compared with the first half of that year. "Aggressive Indian buying is unlikely to be there in the second half like every year. Global prices need to find support from other sources like exchanged traded funds or have to correct. Another reason for the first-half buying surge is that cash many jewellers deposited in banks because of demonetization last year has been routed back through official channels, allowing for the restocking of gold, Nambiath added. In November, Prime Minister Narendra Modi scrapped 500- and 1,000-rupee banknotes - 86 percent of the value of cash in circulation - as part of a crackdown on corruption, tax evasion and militant financing. gold could start trading at discounts in India in the next few weeks as jewellers "are carrying far higher inventory than required. "They have to bring imports down in coming months, "Gold imports in May could drop to around 50 tonnes, Jose of the refiners' association said, from 85 tonnes in April. Lower gold imports could help Asia's third-biggest economy in containing a swelling trade deficit that hit its highest level in 29 months in April. GOLD Imports of unrefined gold will also fall sharply in the second half as new rules allow only refineries accredited by the Bureau of Indian Standards to import gold from June 1, said Jose of refiners' association. "It will take at least six months for refiners to secure BIS accreditation. Many small refiners may fail to get accreditation. India imported 142 tonnes of unrefined gold in 2016, according to data compiled by the World Gold Council. The data Showed for Indian Gold Import by World Gold Council. Gold prices held near their strongest level in around three weeks in European trade on Tuesday, as investor sentiment skewed toward safe-haven assets after a suspected terrorist attack at a concert in Britain's city of Manchester. Comex gold futures firmed at $ 1,261.43 a troy ounce by 3:10AM ET. Meanwhile, spot gold was at $ 1,261.60. Prices of the yellow metal rose to an overnight peak of $ 1,263.80, just shy of a three-week high of $ 1,265.00. Police said an explosion at the end of a concert by U.S. singer Ariana Grande in the English city of Manchester on Monday killed at least 19 people and injured more than 50. Two U.S. officials said a suicide bomber was suspected, while Prime Minister Theresa May said the incident was being treated as a terrorist
  • 10. attack. If confirmed, it would be the deadliest militant assault in Britain since four British Muslims killed 52 people in suicide bombings on London's transport system in July 2005. Gold has been well-supported in recent sessions as political uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration pressured the dollar lower. Investor sentiment has been hit by fears that the U.S. political system could become engulfed by crisis, preventing lawmakers from pushing through tax or spending reforms. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, was at 96.83 in London morning trade. It fell to a six-month low of 96.70 on Monday, having given up all the gains it had made following the election in November. Also on the Comex, silver futures shed 7.1 cents, or about 0.4%, to $ 17.12 a troy ounce, after hitting its highest since May 1 at $17.21 a day earlier. ENERGY Oil seesawed Friday as it struggled to recover from a slump overnight as an OPEC-led deal on extending output cuts disappointed. U.S. crude was off 32 cents, or 0.65%, at $ 48.58 at 08:00 ET. Brent shed 37 cents, or 0.72%, to $ 51.09. The market had already priced in the nine-month extension to output cuts to March of next year agreed Thursday by OPEC and non-OPEC producers. The scale back remains at the 1.8 million barrels a day agreed for the first half of this year. Investors are questioning to what extent the deal will encourage a further rise in U.S. shale activity and what happens after the deal expires next year. U.S. production has increased by over 10% since mid-2016 to some 9.3 million barrels a day. Baker Hughes rig count data are due out later in the session. U.S. oil prices moved higher on Friday, but the commodity still remained under pressure as the Organization of Petrolium Exporting Countries’s decision to extend production cuts disappointed traders. U.S. crude futures for July delivery were up 0.47% at $ 49.12 a barrel, off a one-week trough of $ 48.27 hit overnight. On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, the July Brent contract climbed 0.52% to $ 51.74 a barrel, after hitting a two- week low of $ 50.89 earlier in the day. Crude prices tumbled after OPEC agreed on Thursday to extend its production cuts for nine extra months, citing delegates at a highly anticipated meeting in Vienna. However, the move disappointed some traders who had hoped for longer or deeper cuts. In December last year, OPEC and 11 other non-OPEC producers, including Russia, agreed to cut output by about 1.8 million barrels per day between January 1 and June 30 in what was the first joint accord in 15 years. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid al- Falih had indicated that the major oil producers were likely to agree on extending production cuts for nine months to March 2018 as widely expected, but also stated that the consensus among members was that deeper cuts are not needed now.Among OPEC members, Nigeria and Libya will continue to be exempt from an output cap while Iran’s output would remain at 3.8 million barrels per day. In any case, commodity strategists from ING questioned why they were bothering to extend the agreement. The OPEC-led decision to extend a production cut to March 2018 disappointed financial investors, prompting an exit from oil futures markets, while refiners in Asia were mostly concerned with whether it meant they would need to go hunting for crude. In Vienna, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and
  • 11. some non-OPEC producers on Thursday extended a pledge to cut 1.8 million barrels per day of output until the end of the first quarter of 2018. traders did not like what they heard, thinking it meant an ongoing oil glut. "The market voted with its feet", dragging crude futures CLc1 LCOc1 down 5 percent to near $50 a barrel. In physical markets, however, where tankers can take weeks or months to deliver up to $100 million in crude oil, refiners want to know if they will be forced to search for new suppliers. "This is a declaration of a strong will of OPEC as well as non-OPEC producers to tighten overall supply-demand," said Yasushi Kimura, president of the Petroleum Association of Japan, and chairman of petroleum conglomerate JXTG Holdings 5020.T . To ensure crude supplies, "we need to carefully monitor OPEC's production cut adherence," Kimura said.Crude is by far the biggest cost for refiners and the petrochemical industry, shaking margins DUB-SIN-REF whenever benchmark prices take broad swings.Kimura said the extended cuts could mean demand may exceed supply in 2017, which would be the first time in years. This would force refiners to start using up reserves, pushing up prices at least until production catches back up with consumption. "In 2017, global demand is likely to exceed supply ... and crude prices are likely to ... rise towards $60 by the end of the year. REAL SUPPLY CUTS? So far, though, the cuts that started in January have barely dented supply in Asia, home to three of the world's four biggest oil consumers. Exporters were keen to maintain global market share, and they cut domestic supplies or shipments to marginal buyers. As a result, inventories in the big consumer markets have remained bloated, and prices low. have not had any impact in terms of any cut from any of these sources into India," said B. Ashok, chairman of Indian Oil Corp IOC.NS , the country's biggest petroleum company. OPEC sources said that will change as top exporter Saudi Arabia especially is keen to see a visibly tighter market. Many refiners, however, are still not expecting a real crude shortage, largely due to ample alternative supplies. "Crudes that can be processed in our refineries include crudes from the U.S. We have procured some crude even from Canada. We have been procuring crude from Latin America ... Africa, Russia," Ashok said. ALTERNATIVES AT A PRICE U.S. producers have become a key alternative source of supply as their output - largely due to shale oil - has soared by 10 percent since mid-2016 to 9.3 million bpd C-OUT-T-EIA , close to Saudi Arabia's and Russia's levels. These producers have been fast to fill OPEC's gap, with an average of 374,000 bpd of crude from the United States coming to Asia in the first four months of 2017, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters Oil Research and Forecasts. That compares with an average of just 48,000 bpd in 2016. "The cut in OPEC supplies will be offset by higher U.S. crude production," said KY Lin, spokesman for Formosa Petrochemical Corp. 6505.TW , one of Asia's biggest refiners and petrochemical producers. Still, expect prices to gradually rise towards the beginning of 2018 as the market tightens. consumers may have
  • 12. to live with higher prices as OPEC and its allies hold back output, the longer the policy lasts, the more the cartel risks losing permanent market share. "In response to ... OPEC production cuts we are working on diversification of crude oil import sources and looking beyond the Middle East. Oil markets remained weak on Friday after tumbling in the previous session when OPEC and allied producers extended output cuts but disappointed investors betting on longer or larger supply curbs. At Thursday's meeting in Vienna, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some non-OPEC producers agreed to extend a pledge to cut around 1.8 million barrels per day until the end of the first quarter of 2018. The initial agreement would have expired in June this year. oil plunged 5 percent following the announcement, and held its losses early on Friday. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $51.47 per barrel at 0125 GMT, up just 1 cent from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were back below $50, at $48.88, down 2 cents from their previous close.Britain's Barclays bank said the price falls were a result of some expectations ahead the meeting for longer or deeper production cuts. "Some market participants may have expected either a deeper cut, a longer one, inclusion of more countries, or other such icing on the cake. Barclays said the ongoing production cut would result in a drawdown of bloated fuel inventories, but added that OPEC's goal of bringing stocks down to their five-year average would not be reached within the timeframe of the production cut. Other analysts, including at Goldman Sachs and Jefferies bank said a normalization of oil inventories would occur in early 2018. Analysts also said that the OPEC-led production cuts would support a further rise in U.S. output. Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said that the "decision in Vienna sends a signal of continued support for oil prices from OPEC which helps U.S. onshore drillers make plans" to further increase their production.U.S. oil production has already risen by 10 percent since mid-2016 to over 9.3 million bpd, close to the output of top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia." Oil sank Thursday as it shed early gains of about 1% as OPEC signaled a nine-month extension of output cuts of the same magnitude. U.S. crude was off 80 cents, or 1.56% at $50.56 at 08:00 ET. Brent lost 70 cents, or 1.30%, to $53.26. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said OPEC and non-OPEC producers are likely to agree to a nine-month extension. However, he also said deeper cuts are not needed for the meanwhile. An official OPEC statement is due out later in the session. OPEC and non-OPEC producers are cutting output by 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half. The expected decision to extend the time frame for the cuts comes after a further increase in U.S. shale activity. U.S. production has risen by over 10% since mid-2016 to some 9.3 million barrels a day. Oil shed gains of about 1% Thursday as OPEC signals 9-month extension of output cuts of the same size. U.S. crude was off 14 cents, or 0.27%, at $51.22 at 05:30 ET. Brent lost 4 cents, or 0.07%, to $53.92. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said OPEC and non-OPEC producers are likely to agree to a nine-month extension. However, he said deeper cuts are not needed now. OPEC and non-OPEC producers are cutting output by 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half.
  • 13. Oil prices were higher in European trading on Thursday, touching a fresh five-week high ahead of an OPEC meeting later in the global day. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude July contract hit its strongest since April 19 at $ 51.93 a barrel in overnight trade. It was last at $ 51.73 by 3:20AM ET, up 37 cents, or around 0.7%. Elsewhere, Brent oil for July delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London tacked on 43 cents to $54.38 a barrel, after climbing to its highest since April 19 at $ 54.62 a day earlier. Oil ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producing countries will meet in Vienna on Thursday to decide whether to extend their current production agreement beyond a June 30- deadline. In November last year, OPEC and 11 other non-OPEC producers, including Russia, agreed to cut output by about 1.8 million barrels per day between January 1 and June 30. Most market analysts expect the oil cartel to extend output cuts for a further nine months until March 2018, instead of six months as previously expected. There is also talk that OPEC is looking at the option of deepening current production cuts, but it is not clear whether there would be support for that. So far, the production-cut agreement has had little impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from producers not participating in the accord, such as Libya, and a relentless increase in U.S. shale oil output. The U.S. rig count rose for the 18th week in a row to the highest level since April 2015 last week, implying that further gains in domestic production are ahead. Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for June inched up 0.9 cents, or 0.5%, to $1.661 a gallon, while June heating oil advanced 1.2 cents to $1.618 a gallon. Natural gas futures for July delivery climbed 1.1 cents to $3.311 per million British thermal units, as traders looked ahead to weekly storage data due later in the global day. Oil prices rose ahead of an OPEC meeting on Thursday that is expected to extend output cuts into 2018, adding at least nine months to an initial six-month curb in the first half of this year. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $ 54.41 per barrel at 0539 GMT, up 45 cents, or 0.8 percent from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were up 40 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $ 51.76. Both benchmarks have climbed over 16 percent from their May lows. Prices have risen on a consensus that a pledge by the OPEC Countries and other producers, including Russia, to cut supplies by 1.8 million barrels per day would be extended into 2018, instead of covering only the first half of 2017. was rife that the cuts may be extended by nine and possibly 12 months. The production cut, introduced in January, was initially only to cover the first half of 2017, but an ongoing glut has put pressure on OPEC and its allies to extend at a meeting in Vienna on Thursday. is widely expected the cartel will, at a minimum, extend its production quota for another nine months. An extended production cut was already "factored into the price of oil", adding that is was unlikely that a deeper cut would be announced at this stage. "OPEC officials prefer ... to wait and see the impact of an extension in helping rebalance the market prior to taking any more drastic actions. Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said a nine-month extension "would have little impact on our price forecast for 2017, which is for an annual average of $55 per barrel for Brent". It estimated that a nine-month extension would result in a 950,000 bpd production increase in the United States, undermining OPEC's efforts. U.S. oil production C-OUT-T-EIA has already risen by more than 10 percent since
  • 14. mid-2016 to over 9.3 million bpd as its drillers take advantage of higher prices and the supply gap left by OPEC and its allies. Should the meeting in Vienna result in a cut extension to cover all of 2018, Wood Mackenzie said the tighter market could push average 2018 Brent prices up to $63 per barrel. Brent has averaged $53.90 per barrel so far this year. If the meeting fails to agree an extended cut, traders expect oil prices to fall as this would result in ongoing oversupply. Oil prices rose ahead of an OPEC meeting on Thursday that is expected to extend a production cut aimed at tightening the market well into 2018, adding at least nine months to an initial six-month cut in the first half of this year. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $ 54.40 per barrel at 0118 GMT, up 44 cents, or 0.82 percent from their last close. U.S. WTI crude futures CLc1 were at $51.76, up 40 cents, or 0.78 percent. Both benchmarks have risen more than 16 percent from their May lows. Prices have risen on a consensus that a pledge by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, including Russia, to cut supplies by 1.8 million barrels per day would be extended into 2018, instead of just covering the first half of this year. production cut, introduced in January, was initially only to cover the first half of 2017, but an ongoing glut has meant that OPEC and its allies who are meeting in Vienna on Thursday are expected to extend the cut by nine or potentially even 12 months. strong consensus has developed that producer supply cuts will be extended. The only question is the choice of the duration. "This (extension) has been highly factored into the price of oil, and at this stage it is unlikely that we will see a deepening in the level of production cuts, with OPEC officials preferring to wait and see the impact of an extension in helping rebalance the market prior to taking any more drastic actions," Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said "a nine-month extension would have little impact on our price forecast for 2017, which is for an annual average of $55 per barrel for Brent." Wood Mackenzie estimated that a nine-month extension would result in a 950,000 bpd production increase in the United States, undermining OPEC. U.S. oil production C- OUT-T-EIA has already risen by more than 10 percent since mid-2016 to over 9.3 million bpd as its drillers take advantage of higher prices and the supply gap left by OPEC and its allies. Should the meeting in Vienna result in a cut extension to cover all of 2018, Wood Mackenzie said the tighter market could push average 2018 Brent prices up to $63 per barrel. Brent has averaged $53.90 per barrel so far this year. Should the meeting in Vienna fail to agree an extended cut, traders expect oil prices to fall as this would result in ongoing oversupply.Oil was flat Wednesday amid confidence major producers will agree to extended an output cut deal.U.S. crude was up 3 cents, or 0.06%, at $ 51.50 at 08:15 ET. Brent added 5 cents, or 0.09%, to $ 54.20.OPEC and non-OPEC have agreed to cut output by 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half. The adherents to the deal are due to meet Thursday to decide on an extension of the deal for another nine months. Goldman Sachs said the proposal to sell off half of the U.S. strategic petroleum reserves over 10 years would have little impact. The American Petroleum Institute Tuesday reported a fall of 1.5 million barrels in U.S. crude stocks in the latest week. The Energy Information Administration is forecast to report Wednesday a fall of 2.42 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories. BASE METAL’S OUTLOOK :
  • 15. Trading Ideas: Nickel -  Nickel trading range for the day is 575.5-591.1.  Nickel gained on short covering tracking LME prices after trade data showed that the Philippines is ramping up ore exports to China.  BHP Billiton is seeking environmental approval to dig two new mines to extend the life of its Nickel West unit in the state of Western Australia.  U.S. orders for long lasting manufactured goods fell less than forecast in April, although the core reading unexpectedly dipped. Zinc -  Zinc trading range for the day is 167.6-172.2.  Zinc gained as support seen after Shanghai zinc inventories fell to their lowest in more than two years at 91,749 tonnes.  Zinc spot premiums in Guangdong contracted rapidly due to increased supplies.  The National Bureau of Statistics data show China’s zinc production fell 5.6% year-on-year to 474,000 tonnes in April. Copper -  Copper trading range for the day is 361.3-375.7.  Copper dropped as momentum sparked by a strike at copper mines, Indonesia's Grasberg, eased ahead of the long weekend break in China, the U.S. and Britain.  Freeport McMoRan Inc said that mining and milling rates at its Grasberg mine in Papua, Indonesia have been affected by an extended strike.  China bonded copper premiums jumped $10 to $75, off the year's lows to the highest since March amid draw downs from Chinese exchange inventories.
  • 16. BASE METAL NICKEL✍ ( 25th - May - 2017 ) Amid a weak trend in global market and subdued domestic demand, nickel traded 0.15 per cent lower at Rs 588.90 per kg in futures trade today as speculators reduced their bets. In futures trading at the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in current month was trading down by 90 paise, or 0.15 per cent, at Rs 588.90 per kg, in a business turnover of 256 lots. The metal for delivery in June was also down by a similar margin to trade at Rs. 594.90 per kg, in a business turnover of 66 lots. Analysts said the fall in nickel prices was mostly in line with a weakening trend in select base metals at the London Metal Exchange after Moody's Investors Service downgraded China's credit rating and warned that the country's debt position will worsen as its economic expansion slows. ALUMINIUM✍ - ( 25th - May - 2017 ) Aluminium prices were down by 0.28 per cent to Rs 125.75 per kg in futures market today as speculators cut down their holdings, tracking a weak trend in base metals overseas and subdued demand at domestic spot markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in May fell by 35 paise, or 0.28 per cent to Rs 125.75 per kg in business turnover of 95 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in June contracts traded lower by 25 paise, or 0.20 per cent to Rs 125.75 per kg in 15 lots. Analysts said apart from a weak trend in the base metals pack at the London Metal Exchange after Moody's Investors Service downgraded China's credit rating and warned the country's debt position will worsen as its economic expansion slows, low demand at the domestic markets, led to fall in aluminium prices at futures trade here. ZINC✍ ( 25th - May - 2017 ) Falling for the second day, zinc prices eased further by 0.70 per cent to Rs 170.10 per kg in futures trade today as speculators engaged in trimming their positions, tracking a weak trend at spot market on muted demand. Besides, slump in copper and other industrial metals at the London Metal Exchange too weighed on sentiments in futures trade. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in May declined by Rs 1.20, or 0.70 per cent, to Rs 170.10 per kg, in a business turnover of 391 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in far-month June traded lower by a similar margin to Rs 170.60 per kg in 17 lots. NICKEL✍ ( 26- May - 2017 ) Nickel prices rose 0.60 per cent to Rs 585.50 per kg in futures trading today as participants raised their bets amid pick up in industrial demand at the domestic spot markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in May month went up by Rs 3.50, or 0.60 per cent to Rs 585.50 per kg in business turnover of 947 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in June month contracts traded higher by Rs 3.10, or 0.53 per cent to Rs 591.20 per kg in 593 lots. Analysts said widening of positions by traders on the back of pick up in demand from alloy-makers in the spot market supported nickel prices at futures trade.
  • 17. ALUMINIUM✍ ( 24- May - 2017 ) Amid pick up in demand at domestic spot market, aluminium prices were up by 0.24 per cent to Rs 126.60 per kg in futures trade today as speculators built up fresh positions. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in May edged up by 30 paise, or 0.24 per cent, to Rs 126.60 per kg, in a business turnover of 209 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in June traded higher by 25 paise, or 0.20 per cent, to Rs 126.60 per kg in 53 lots. Analysts said fresh positions created by participants after uptick in demand from consuming industries in the spot market mainly led to the rise in aluminium prices at futures trade. ZINC✍ ( 24- May - 2017 ) Supported by an upsurge in demand from consuming industries at domestic spot market, zinc prices moved up by 0.21 per cent to Rs 169.90 per kg in futures market today as participants created fresh positions. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in May edged up by 35 paise, or 0.21 per cent, to Rs 169.90 per kg, in a business turnover of 472 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in June traded higher by 15 paise, or 0.09 per cent, to Rs 170.30 per kg in 35 lots. Analysts said fresh positions built up by participants, tracking a firm at the domestic spot market on pick up in demand from consuming industries, mainly influenced zinc prices at futures trade LEAD✍ ( 24- May - 2017 ) Lead prices edged higher 0.41 per cent to Rs 134.80 per kg in futures trading today as speculators built up fresh positions amid pick up in domestic demand. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in May traded higher by 55 paise, or 0.41 per cent, to Rs 134.80 per kg, in a business turnover of 396 lots. On similar lines, the metal for delivery in June was trading up by 50 paise, or 0.37 per cent, to Rs 135.90 per kg in 40 lots. Analysts attributed the rise in lead futures to fresh positions created by traders due to pick up in demand from battery-makers at the spot market. ZINC✍ ( 22 - May - 2017 ) China is likely to step up imports of refined zinc from this month, industry sources said on Friday, as dwindling global supplies of concentrate hit local output of the metal, used to galvanise steel. China's refined zinc output marked its lowest in more than two years in April as the impact from the closure of major mines in places such as Australia and Ireland stifled the concentrate supplies China relies on to churn out finished metal. Nickel futures fall 0.40% on global cues, profit-booking. - ( 19 - May - 2017 ) Nickel futures traded 0.40 per cent lower at Rs 597.50 per kg today as participants reduced exposure amid
  • 18. weak global cues and profit-booking. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in June fell Rs 2.40, or 0.40 per cent, to Rs 597.50 per kg, in a business turnover of 128 lots. Also, the metal for delivery in May was trading down Rs 2.30, or 0.39 per cent lower, at Rs 591.90 per kg in 907 lots. Market analysts said, apart from profit-booking by participants, a weak trend in select base metals overseas, weighed on nickel futures. Copper futures rise on spot demand - ( 19 - May - 2017 ) Copper futures traded 0.21 per cent higher at Rs 365.30 per kg today as speculators enlarged positions amid firming trend at the domestic spot markets. However, weakness in metal overseas, capped the gains. In futures trade, copper for delivery in June was trading higher by 75 paise, or 0.21 per cent, at Rs 365.30 per kg in a business turnover of 710 lots at Multi Commodity Exchange. Similarly, the metal for delivery in far-month August edged up by 25 paise, or 0.07 per cent, at Rs 368.80 per kg in 2 lots. Lead futures down 0.66 per cent hurt by muted demand ( 18 - May - 2017 ) - Lead prices were trading down 0.66 per cent to Rs 134.55 per kg amid muted domestic demand in futures trading today as participants trimmed exposure. Lead for delivery in May declined by 90 paise, or 0.66 per cent, to Rs 134.55 per kg in a business turnover of 190 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in June shed 85 paise, or 0.63 per cent, to Rs 135.10 per kg in six lots. Marketmen said the fall in lead futures was due to a weak trend at the domestic markets owing to muted demand from consuming industries, particularly, battery- makers. NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES OF NCDEX MARKET - REFINED SOYA✍ ( 26- May - 2017 ) Refined soya oil prices drifted lower by 1.05 per cent to Rs 626.50 per 10 kg in futures trade today as participants booked profits amid easing demand in the spot market against adequate stocks position. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in far-month July fell by Rs 6.65, or 1.05 per cent, to Rs 626.50 per 10 kg, with an open interest of 33,160 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in June traded lower by Rs 6.10, or 0.97 per cent, to Rs 625.60 per 10 kg in 42,510 lots. Analysts said besides profit booking by traders at prevailing levels, fall in demand in the spot market against sufficient stocks position, mainly led to the decline in refined soya oil prices at futures trade. WHEAT✍ ( 26- May - 2017) Wheat prices eased by 0.25 per cent to Rs 1,597 per quintal in futures market today as speculators cut down their positions, triggered by adequate stocks position on increased supplies from growing regions at spot
  • 19. markets. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, wheat for delivery in June declined by Rs 4, or 0.25 per cent, to Rs 1,597 per quintal, with an open interest of 19,330 lots. On similar lines, the wheat for delivery in July traded lower by a similar margin to Rs 1,620 per quintal in 8,830 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders, driven by sufficient stocks positions on increased arrivals from producing belts in the physical market mainly kept wheat prices lower at futures trade. PALM OIL✍ ( 26- May - 2017 ) Crude palm oil prices were down by Rs 4.90 to Rs 505 per 10 kg in futures trade today as traders offloaded positions due to subdued demand in spot markets. Furthermore, higher supplies from major producing areas and weak trend at overseas markets weighed on crude palm oil prices at futures trade, analysts said. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in June eased by Rs 4.90, or 0.96 per cent, to Rs 505 per 10 kg, in a business turnover of 368 lots. The oil for delivery in current month traded lower by Rs 3, or 0.58 per cent, to Rs 517 per 10 kg in 81 lots. MENTHA OIL✍ ( 26- May - 2017 ) Mentha oil prices were up by 1.95 per cent to Rs 982.20 per kg in futures trade today as investors extended their positions amid rising demand from consuming industries in the domestic spot market. Further, tight stocks position following restricted arrivals from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh in the physical market supported the upside in mentha oil prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in current month gained Rs 18.80, or 1.95 per cent, to Rs 982.20 per kg, with a trading volume of 116 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in June edged up by Rs 6, or 0.66 per cent, to Rs 914 per kg, with a business turnover of 35 lots. Marketmen said a firming trend at the spot markets amid restricted supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, mainly influenced mentha oil prices at the futures trade. CRUDE PALM OIL✍ ( 25 - May - 2017 ) Crude palm oil prices were up by 0.52 per cent to Rs 514.10 per 10 kg in futures trade today as traders created fresh positions, supported by pick up in demand at the spot market. Besides, tight stocks position on fall in supplies from producing belts too fuelled the uptrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in June month rose by Rs 2.70, or 0.52 per cent, to Rs 514.10 per 10 kg, in a business turnover of 381 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery this month went up by Rs 1.30, or 0.25 per cent, to Rs 521.50 per 10 kg in 100 lots. Analysts said widening of positions by participants driven by pick up in demand in the spot market against tight stocks position on restricted supplies from producing regions mainly kept crude palm oil prices higher at futures trade
  • 20. MENTHA OIL✍ ( 25- May - 2017 ) Mentha oil prices were up 1.01 per cent to Rs 967.90 per kg in futures market today as participants raised their holdings on the back of pick up in spot demand from consuming industries. Besides, tight stocks position following restricted arrivals from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh also provided support to mentha oil prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery this month rose Rs 9.70, or 1.01 per cent, to Rs 967.90 per kg, clocking a business volume of 72 lots. The oil for June traded higher by Rs 5, or 0.55 per cent, to Rs 912.30 per kg, with a trading volume of 53 lots. Analysts said raising of bets by speculators, driven by rising demand from consuming industries in the spot markets against restricted supplies from Chandausi led to the rise in mentha oil prices in futures trade. CASTOR SEED✍ ( 24- May - 2017 ) Castor seed prices recovered sharply by Rs 42 to Rs 4,528 per quintal in futures trading after speculators accumulated positions at prevailing existing levels amid a firm trend at the domestic spot markets. Marketmen said fresh positions created by participants at current levels amid a firm trend in spot markets on the back of revived demand from paint and lubricant industries, mostly supported the rally in castor seed prices in futures trade. Besides, emergence of export demand too boosted sentiments, they added. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, castor seed for July delivery recovered by Rs 42, or 0.94 per cent, to Rs 4,528 per quintal, with an open interest of 24,240 lots. On a similar line, castor seed for delivery in most- active June was trading higher by Rs 40, or 0.91 per cent, to Rs 4,459 per quintal, in an open interest of 90,470 lots 22 - May - 2017 - US wheat rose nearly 1 percent on Monday as forecasts for heavy rains across a key US growing region pushed the grain to a two-week high. FUNDAMENTALS The most active wheat futures on the Chicago Board Of Trade rose 0.9 per cent to $ 4.39 a bushel by 0105 GM, near the session high of $ 4.39-1/4 a bushel - the highest since May 8. Wheat closed up 2.2 per cent on Friday. The most active soybean futures rose 0.4 per cent to $9.57 a bushel, having firmed 0.9 per cent on Friday. The most active corn futures rose 0.3 per cent to $3.73-1/2 a bushel, having gained 1.8 per cent in the previous session. Wheat draws support as forecasts for rains across the United States stoke fears of production losses. Heavy rains also support corn, which has edged higher amid fears of further planting delays. Soybeans and corn were under pressure last week amid a slump in the Brazilian real, which saw farmers rush to sell their record supplies. Ample stocks drag down wheat futures by 0.48% ( 19 - May - 2017 )
  • 21. Wheat prices fell 0.48 per cent to Rs 1,651 per quintal in futures trade today as speculators cut down their positions, triggered by ample stocks on increased supplies from growing regions at spot markets. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, wheat for delivery in July declined by Rs 8, or 0.48 per cent to Rs 1,651 per quintal with an open interest of 4,720 lots. Likewise, the wheat for delivery in June contracts traded lower by Rs 7, or 0.43 per cent to Rs 1,624 per quintal in 20,250 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders, triggered by sufficient stocks positions on increased arrivals from producing belts in the physical market mainly attributed the fall in wheat prices at futures trade. CARDAMOM✍ 19 - May - 2017 - Cardamom remained weak and prices fell by another 1.12 per cent to Rs 1,004 per kg in futures trade today as speculators engaged in reducing bets, taking negative cues from spot market on fall in demand. Besides, ample stocks position on increased arrivals from producing regions fuelled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery in June eased by Rs 11.40, or 1.12 per cent, to Rs 1,004 per kg in a business turnover of 29 lots. Mentha oil futures maintain downtrend on sluggish demand - ( 19- May - 2017 ) Extending a falling streak for the fourth straight day, mentha oil prices fell further by 0.62 per cent to Rs 917.10 per kg in futures trading today as speculators engaged in reducing positions, driven by easing demand in the spot market. Besides, adequate stocks position on increased arrivals from producing belts put pressure on mentha oil prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in June declined by Rs 5.70, or 0.62 per cent, to Rs 917.10 per kg in a business turnover of 67 lots. PALM OIL✍ ( 19- May - 2017 ) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Thursday evening, tracking weaker soya oil on the Chicago Board of Trade and other related edible oils on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange. The benchmark palm oil contract for August delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was down 0.6% at 2,626 ringgit ($607.03) a tonne by the close. Most commodities, including US soya oil, were dragged down by a negative US Dow Jones index, said a Kuala Lumpur-based futures trader. The Dow recorded its biggest one-day fall since September on reports that US President Trump tried to interfere with a federal investigation.
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