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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK -
GOLD - Gold on MCX settled up 0.2% at 29164 recouping much of the decline suffered in the previous session, as a wobbly
dollar and losses in U.S. equities. Overnight, gold prices rose as US political uncertainty resurfaced, after President Donald Trump
threatened to ‘close down’ the government, sparking fresh fears that continued political uncertainty in Washington could further
delay the introduction of tax-reform. Gold’s path to $ 1300 was made easier somewhat as investors fretted the possibility of further
turmoil in Washington , following President Trump’s threat to shut down the government if he does not get funding for a wall on the
U.S.-Mexico border. Also on Wednesday, US economic data were mixed, with the service and manufacturing sectors going in
different directions in August. The IHS Markit flash manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to a two-month low, while the
services PMI rose to a 28-month high. New-home sales fell to a seven-month low in July. Now traders and investors showed caution
ahead of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank’s three-day Jackson Hole, Wyo., symposium of global central bankers beginning
Thursday. Financial markets will be looking for hints from central bankers on any changes to monetary policy, especially in marquee
speeches from the Fed’s Janet Yellen and the ECB’s Mario Draghi on Friday. Higher rates tend to boost the dollar, cutting demand
for gold investors using other currencies. Higher rates also boost the appeal of investments that offer a yield, which gold does not.
Technically market is getting support at 29088 and below same could see a test of 29011 level, And resistance is now likely to be
seen at 29228, a move above could see prices testing 29291.
GOLD CHART
Chart Details - On the Above given Daily Chart of Gold has Appiles the Bollinger Band Along with MACD A closer look at
price action sees gold holding within the confines of a well-defined ascending channel formation off the July lows. Last week we
highlighted that the rally in gold price had failed at, “1300 before pulling back sharply. Price response to this level leaves the
immediate risk lower heading into next week, but the broader outlook remains weighted to the topside while above 1251. A topside
breach eyes subsequent targets at 1321/25.” Prices held a tight range into the start of the week with Fed Chair Yellen’s speech on
Friday charging a quick drop before turning sharply higher to close the week in the black. Technically market is getting support at
29088 and below same could see a test of 29011 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 29228, a move above could see
prices testing 29291.
Monday 28 Aug 2017
SILVER -Silver on MCX settled up 0.35% at 39074 as sentiment on the greenback soured following remarks by U.S. President
Trump and as investors remained cautious ahead of Jackson Hole summit. Gold’s path to $ 1,300 was made easier somewhat as
investors fretted the possibility of further turmoil in Washington, following President Trump’s threat to shut down the government if
he does not get funding for a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. New U.S. single-family home sales unexpectedly fell in July,
dropping to their lowest in seven months amid a surge in prices, raising concerns of a slowdown in the housing market recovery.
Euro zone business growth maintained a solid clip in August, driven by the best manufacturing performance in 6-1/2 years despite a
strong euro, easily offsetting a mild slowdown in services growth, a key private sector survey showed. Unconventional monetary
policy is a success, but gaps in understanding the relatively new tools remain, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said,
cautioning against hasty policy responses to the new reality. The European Central Bank should quickly end asset buys next year as
the outlook does not warrant the extension of its 2.3 trillion euro scheme, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said, weighing in
on the biggest issue facing the ECB this autumn. Traders, however, remained cautious of initiating large positions in the precious
metal ahead of speeches by European Central Bank president Mario Draghi and Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen at a two-day
central banking symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which gets underway on Thursday. Technically now Silver is getting
support at 38907 and below same could see a test of 38741 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 39192, a move above
could see prices testing 39311.
SILVER CHART
Detail of Chart -Silver continues to maintain the rising channel and despite last week’s key reversal-day we’ll continue to respect
the lower parallel for as long as it holds. There has been a lot of ‘play’ around the 200-day MA, with several days failing to close
above only twice it has, fractionally during the past couple of weeks. We are definitely seeing this moving average exert its influence.
If silver can free itself from the 200-day, a break to the 8/18 high at 17.32 can unfold, which depending on the timing may be in
confluence with the trend-line running down off the 2017 high. Technically now Silver is getting support at 38907 and below same
could see a test of 38741 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 39192, a move above could see prices testing 39311.
MCX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 31-AUG-17 143 139 135 133 131 129 127 123 119
COPPER 31- AUG-2017 442 437 432 429 427 424 422 417 412
CRUDE OIL 19-SEP-17 3153 3121 3089 3073 3057 3041 3025 2993 2961
GOLD 05-OCT-2017 30397 29950 29503 29335 29056 28888 28609 28162 27715
LEAD 31-AUG-17 163 158 153 150 148 145 143 138 133
NATURAL GAS 26-SEP-2017 201 196 191 188 186 183 181 176 171
NICKEL 31-AUG-17 799 777 755 742 733 720 711 689 667
SILVER 05-SEP-2017 41796 40821 39846 39429 38871 38454 37896 36921 35946
ZINC 31-AUG-17 215 209 203 199 197 193 191 185 179
MCX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 31-AUG-17 144 138 136 134 132 130 128 123 118
COPPER 31-AUG-17 466 452 438 432 424 418 410 396 382
CRUDE OIL 19-SEP-17 3388 3280 3172 3115 3064 3007 2956 2848 2740
GOLD 05-OCT-2017 30697 30160 29623 29395 29086 28858 28549 28012 27475
LEAD 31-AUG-17 173 165 157 152 149 144 141 133 125
NATURAL GAS 26-SEP-2017 211 203 195 190 187 182 179 171 163
NICKEL 31-AUG-17 873 825 777 753 729 705 681 633 585
SILVER 05-SEP-2017 41796 40821 39846 39429 38871 38454 37896 36921 35946
ZINC 31-AUG-17 221 213 205 200 197 192 189 181 173
FOREX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
USDINR 29-AUG-17 64.24 64.22 64.20 64.18 64.14 64.10 63.96 63.92 63.88
EURINR 29-AUG-17 76.64 76.54 76.40 76.28 76.06 75.86 75.48 75.22 75.10
GBPINR 29-AUG-17 83.52 83.24 82.92 82.74 82.16 81.96 81.74 81.26 81.04
JPYINR 29-AUG-17 59.44 59.20 59.06 58.86 58.76 58.68 58.52 58.46 58.12
FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
USDINR 29-AUG-17 64.82 64.64 64.46 64.22 64.08 63.94 63.70 63.48 63.26
EURINR 29-AUG-17 77.78 77.04 76.82 76.40 76.14 75.88 75.06 74.98 74.62
GBPINR 29-AUG-17 84.92 84.62 83.77 83.18 82.93 81.92 81.12 80.78 79.93
JPYINR 29-AUG-17 62.45 62.07 61.86 61.64 60.58 59.26 58.74 58.55 58.27
NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍
DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20-SEP -2017 675 671 667 665 663 661 659 655 651
SYBEANIDR 20-SEP -2017 3385 3346 3307 3292 3268 3253 3229 3190 3151
RMSEED 20-SEP -2017 4041 3977 3913 3888 3849 3824 3785 3721 3657
JEERAUNJHA 20-SEP -2017 21401 20951 20501 20303 20051 19853 19601 19151 18701
GUARSEED10 20-SEP -2017 4644 4490 4336 4285 4182 4131 4028 3874 3720
TMC 20-SEP -2017 7780 7660 7540 7480 7420 7360 7300 7180 7060
NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍
WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20-SEP -2017 676 662 648 643 634 629 620 606 592
SYBEANIDR 20-SEP -2017 3415 3306 3252 3197 3011 2950 2888 2800 2770
RMSEED 20-SEP -2017 4196 4016 3836 3767 3656 3587 3476 3296 3116
JEERAUNJHA 20-SEP -2017 25726 23571 21416 20378 19261 18223 17106 14951 13874
GUARSEED10 20-SEP -2017 4718 4468 4218 3968 3875 3783 3625 3468 3375
TMC 20-SEP -2017 9789 8947 8105 7818 7263 6976 6421 5579 5158
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )✍
GOLD✍
Gold prices gained slightly in Asia on Monday as investors noted the weaker dollar as central bank chiefs
in Wyoming dodged policy discussions and the impact of Hurricane Harvey on the U.S. growth outlook
was under review. Gold futures for December delivery rose 0.14% to $1,299.66 a troy ounce. This week,
Friday’s U.S. jobs report for August is in focus to gauge how it will impact on the path of Fed policy.
Traders will also be closely watching a revised reading of U.S. second quarter growth. Financial markets
in the UK are closed on Monday. Last week, gold prices ended higher in a volatile session on Friday,
reversing earlier losses as the U.S. dollar weakened after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech at
Jackson Hole didn’t specifically address monetary policy. Gold gained ground as the dollar fell after
Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium did not discuss the outlook for monetary
policy, disappointing some investors who had hoped she would sound a hawkish tone. The dollar index
has fallen around 10% so far this year amid ongoing uncertainty over the economic agenda of U.S.
President Donald Trump and doubts that the Fed will deliver a third rate hike this year. A weaker U.S.
currency makes the dollar-denominated metal cheaper for foreign buyers. Among base metals, copper
ended at $3.05 a pound, remaining close to three year highs amid expectations that ongoing demand from
China will continue to support prices.
Gold prices ended higher in a volatile session on Friday, reversing earlier losses as the U.S. dollar
weakened after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole didn’t specifically address
monetary policy. Gold futures for December delivery settled up 0.3% at $1,295.95 on the Comex division
of the New York Mercantile Exchange, after falling as low as $1,281.3 earlier, the weakest level since
August 16. Gold gained ground as the dollar fell after Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole economic
symposium did not discuss the outlook for monetary policy, disappointing some investors who had hoped
she would sound a hawkish tone. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against
a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.82% at 93.47 late Friday after falling as low
as 92.34 earlier.
The dollar index has fallen around 10% so far this year amid ongoing uncertainty over the economic
agenda of U.S. President Donald Trump and doubts that the Fed will deliver a third rate hike this year. A
weaker U.S. currency makes the dollar-denominated metal cheaper for foreign buyers. Elsewhere in
precious metals trading, silver rose 0.57% to $17.07 a troy ounce late Friday, while platinum was down
0.54% at $977.3. Among base metals, copper ended at $3.05 a pound, remaining close to three year highs
amid expectations that ongoing demand from China will continue to support prices. In the week ahead,
investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. jobs report for August to gauge how it will impact on the path
of Fed policy. Traders will also be closely watching a revised reading of U.S. second quarter growth.
Thursday’s euro zone preliminary inflation estimate will also be in focus.
Gold firmed on Friday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen made no mention of monetary policy
in her much-anticipated speech, while investors awaited clues from European Central Bank President
Mario Draghi. U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose slightly, reflecting reduced expectations that the
Fed will raise interest rates further this year, after Yellen skipped mention of it when speaking in Jackson
Hole, Wyoming. relieved the market of a little bit of concern about that," said Bill O'Neill, partner with
Logic Advisors in Saddle River, New Jersey, adding this was positive for gold prices and pressured the
dollar. She clearly came off dovish, saying maybe we need a few changes in bank regulation, but they
should be modest." Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of
holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the greenback. Draghi is scheduled to speak at the Jackson
Hole central bankers meeting at 1900 GMT. Monday is a bank holiday in the United Kingdom. Spot gold
XAU= was up 0.5 percent at $ 1,292.14 an ounce by 2:00 p.m. EST and was on track to close the week up
0.6 percent. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up 0.5 percent at $ 1,297.90. Earlier, Dallas Fed President
Robert Kaplan called for patience on raising interest rates any further but urged speed in reducing the
Federal Reserve's balance sheet. data showed home resales unexpectedly fell in July to an 11-month low
as a chronic shortage of properties boosted prices, the latest sign that the housing market recovery was
slowing. Weekly jobless claims rose, and new orders for key U.S.-made capital goods were better than
expected in July. geopolitical concerns were also preventing gold prices from retreating significantly,
market participants said.
Gold prices were little changed on Friday, as investors remained cautious ahead of comments by Federal
Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi at Jackson Hole later in
the day. Comex gold futures were steady at $ 1,292.06 a troy ounce by 03:00 a.m. ET. Neither Yellen nor
Draghi were expected to announce new policy messages later Friday, but market participants will be
eyeing any potential hints on future policy moves. Gold prices had benefited from a weaker dollar earlier
in the week, after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would be willing to shut down the government to
finance a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and that he might terminate the NAFTA trade treaty. The
U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major
currencies, was steady at 93.26. The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the
opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as
less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases. Market participants were also looking ahead
to U.S. reports on durable goods orders, due later in the day. Elsewhere on the Comex, silver futures were
steady at $16.96 a troy ounce.
Gold dipped slightly in Asia on Friday with markets poised to react to any cues on monetary policy from
the Fed or European Central bank chiefs later in the day. Gold futures for December delivery on the
Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.01% to $1,291.94 a troy ounce. Overnight,
gold prices were flat amid thin trading volumes as market participants awaited clues on monetary policy
from a central banking symposium in Jackson Hall which got underway on Thursday. Gold traded in a
narrow $6 range, as traders appeared to keep their powder dry ahead of key speeches by European Central
Bank president Mario Draghi and Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen. Draghi, however, is not expected to
offer much insight into the European Central Bank’s thinking on monetary policy but traders are expected
to parse Yellen’s comments to gauge the Fed’s sentiment on a third rate hike later this year. Analyst
expectations have turned lower for a third rate hike in December, following the release of the Fed’s
minutes last week showing that policymakers remained concerned with the slow pace of inflation. “Yes
the Fed may hike in December and yes the ECB may announce a further taper for 2018 in October but
recent events may mean that now might not be the time they choose to guide markets towards such an
outcome.
Gold prices nudged lower on Thursday, but held near the $1,300-level as market players awaited
comments on monetary policy from the Jackson Hole meeting set to begin later in the day. An annual
meeting of top central bankers and economists hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in
Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is set to take place from Thursday to Saturday. The focus will be on speeches
from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Friday.
Their comments will be closely watched for fresh policy signals from the world’s two most powerful
central banks. Comex gold futures slipped $1.10, or around 0.1%, to $1,293.64 a troy ounce by 2:50AM
ET. The yellow metal rose to its highest level since November at $1,306.90 late last week. Gold prices
added about 0.3% on Wednesday, as U.S. political developments kept investors on edge and supported
safe-haven demand for the precious metal. President Donald Trump raised the specter of a government
shutdown to fulfill a campaign pledge of building a wall at the U.S.-Mexican border. Elsewhere on the
Comex, silver futures inched down 3.8 cents, or around 0.2%, to $17.00 a troy ounce.
Gold prices fell in Asia on Thursday as investors geared up for a slate of central bank chiefs at Jackson
Hole, Wyoming, over the next two days to discuss global monetary policies. Gold futures for December
delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange drifted down 0.12% to $1,293.20 a
troy ounce. Traders remained cautious of initiating large positions in the precious metal ahead of speeches
by European Central Bank president Mario Draghi and Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen at the central
banking symposium. The Jackson Hole conclave is expected to shed further light on the path of interest
rate hikes in the U.S. this year and on unwinding stimulus efforts by central banks globally, with a
particular focus on the European Central Bank. Ahead of the central banking symposium analysts have
scaled back expectations of further monetary policy tightening. “Yes the Fed may hike in December and
yes the ECB may announce a further taper for 2018 in October but recent events (softer inflation, softer
market sentiment and the strong Euro for the ECB) may mean that now might not be the time they choose
to guide markets towards such an outcome.
Gold prices held steady near the key $1,300-level on Wednesday, as market players braced for an annual
gathering of central bankers, where the heads of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are set
to deliver speeches on the outlook for monetary policy and interest rates. Comex gold futures tacked on
$1.20, or around 0.1%, to $1,292.22 a troy ounce by 2:45AM ET. The yellow metal rose to its highest
level since November at $1,306.90 late last week. Gold prices fell on Tuesday, as strength in the U.S.
dollar pressured the precious metal. An annual meeting of top central bankers and economists hosted by
the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is set to take place from Thursday
to Saturday, with keynote speeches from Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi in the spotlight. Their comments
will be closely watched for fresh policy signals from the world’s two most powerful central banks.
Meanwhile, U.S. political developments kept investors on edge after President Donald Trump raised the
specter of a government shutdown to fulfill a campaign pledge of building a wall at the U.S.-Mexican
border.
Gold prices fell on Tuesday, pressured by the stronger U.S. dollar ahead of an annual meeting of central
bankers this week, while palladium fell from its highest level since February 2001. Spot gold XAU= was
down 0.4 percent at $ 1,285.25 an ounce by 2:15 p.m. EDT, holding near last week's peak at $1,300.80, its
highest since early November. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled down 0.4 percent at $1,291. Investors
awaited speeches by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and U.S. Federal Reserve Chair
Janet Yellen on Friday at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for clues to the direction of interest and currency rates.
The firm greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other
currencies, which could subdue demand. "Draghi could take the opportunity to downplay the idea of
monetary tightening in the euro zone, which would have a dampening effect on the euro and lift the
dollar. "From the Fed's perspective, we think they are not too concerned about weaker than expected
inflation readings. It's pretty clear the Fed needs to raise rates." The Federal Reserve next meets on Sept.
19-20. Fed funds futures prices show traders see a 42 percent chance of an interest rate increase by the
December meeting, with a marginal chance of a rate cut. monetary policy, especially from the Fed, and/or
significant escalation of geopolitical risks are potential triggers. We expect the former to have a more
durable price impact," said Joni Teves, strategist for UBS, in reference to what could drive gold prices
above $ 1,300.
Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday, as market players looked ahead to the annual meeting of top central
bankers and economists in Jackson Hole, Wyoming later this week. Comex gold futures shed $ 7.50, or
around 0.6%, to $ 1,289.15 a troy ounce by 3:05AM ET. The yellow metal logged its highest finish in
nearly 11 weeks on Monday as tensions between the U.S. and North Korea came back in focus. An annual
meeting of top central bankers and economists hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in
Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is set to take place from Thursday to Saturday, with keynote speeches from
Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi in the spotlight. Their comments will be closely watched for fresh policy
signals from the world’s two most powerful central banks. Fed chair Yellen will speak on the topic of
financial stability at 10:00AM ET Friday. With minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's latest
deliberations showing concern about soft inflation, she is not likely to give new guidance on policy.
Markets remain skeptical the Fed will raise rates a third time this year due to worries over the subdued
inflation outlook, but it is widely expected to start the process of reducing its balance sheet by September.
Later in the day, ECB chief Draghi will deliver remarks at 3:00PM ET. While market expectations had
been previously high that Draghi would use his address to signal ECB tapering in the autumn, reports last
week suggest he will not be making major policy announcements. Investors are likely to continue to fret
over the latest headlines coming out of Washington after political developments shook the market last
week.
Gold dipped in Asia on Tuesday after President Donald Trump laid out a strategy for keeping troops in
Afghanistan after 16 years, though promising a tougher and more pragmatic approach to supporting the
government in Kabul and working with partners such as Pakistan. Gold futures for December delivery on
the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange dipped 0.17% to $1,294.51 a troy ounce. Gold
prices traded near session highs on Monday, in the wake of continued dollar weakness, following growing
fears over geopolitical tensions in North Korea, after the U.S. and South Korea began military drills. Safe
haven demand rose, supporting a move higher in gold prices, after the U.S. and South Korea began
computer-simulated military exercises on Monday, risking a reaction from North Korean leader Kim Jong
un, who may view such exercises as preparation for an invasion of the isolated nation. Pyongyang warned
on Sunday that the annual U.S.-South Korea military exercises are “reckless behavior driving the situation
into the uncontrollable phase of a nuclear war.” The rise in geopolitical tensions in the Korean Peninsula
comes amid turmoil in Washington, as investors continued to doubt whether the recent political
controversies engulfing President Donald Trump will delay the introduction of his pro-growth economic
agenda. Gold’s move higher, however, could come under pressure later this week should speeches by
central bankers Janet Yellen or Mario Draghi include hawkish undertones.
AHEAD OF THE COMING WEEK SIGNIFICANT EVENTS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE
MARKETS.
Monday, August 28
Financial markets in the UK are to remain closed for a holiday.
Tuesday, August 29
Canada is to release data on raw materials price inflation.
The U.S. is to report on consumer confidence.
Wednesday, August 30
Australia is to release data on building approvals and completed construction work.
Germany is to release preliminary inflation data.
The UK is to produce data on net private lending.
The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report as well as revised data on second quarter growth.
Thursday, August 31
China is to release survey data on activity in the manufacturing and services sectors.
New Zealand is to publish a report on business confidence.
Australia is to produce data on private capital spending.
The euro zone is to release its preliminary inflation estimate while Germany is to report on retail sales.
Canada is to release monthly data on GDP growth.
The U.S. is to put out a string of data, including reports on jobless claims, personal income and spending
and pending home sales.
Friday, September 1
China is to publish its Caixin manufacturing PMI.
The UK is to release data on manufacturing activity.
The U.S. is to round up the week with the non-farm payrolls report for August and the Institute for Supply
Management is to publish its manufacturing index.
ENERGY
Crude oil prices were mixed in Asia on Monday in the aftermath as the U.S. benchmark was hit by initial
weaker demand expectations after the massive hit taken to U.S. Gulf Coast output and refineries from
Hurricane Harvey and follow-on flooding inland in Texas. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude
October contract fell 0.36% to $47.70 a barrel. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent
oil for October delivery gained 0.40% to $ 52.19 a barrel. Hurricane Harvey has knocked offline ~22% of
Gulf of Mexico oil production, or nearly 380M bbl/pay out of 1.75M, and ~26% of natural gas output, or
828M cf/day out of 3.22T, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Safety and
Environmental Enforcement. In the refining sector, most Texas Gulf Coast refining and shipping is shut or
curtailed. Exxon Mobil closed its Baytown refinery at the Houston Ship Channel - the second largest
refinery in the U.S., with production capacity of 560K bbl/day - due to severe flooding. Royal Dutch
Shell says its 325K bbl/day Deer Park refinery and chemical plant complex may be shut for a week,
Petrobras shut its 112K bbl/day Pasadena plant, and Phillips 66 shut its 247K bbl/day Sweeny refinery.
All Corpus Christi refineries already were closed, so the Houston plant closures compound worries about
fuel shortages that could develop as rain continues; long-term refinery outages could cause fuel shortages
and sharply higher gasoline prices around the U.S. Houston also is the starting point of the massive
Colonial Pipeline that takes gasoline, diesel and jet fuel as far north as New York, but operations had not
been affected as of this afternoon; Shell is one of Colonial's partners. Last week, oil prices ended higher
on Friday, as Hurricane Harvey threatened to disrupt production and refinery activity along the Gulf
Coast.
Crude oil prices were poised to gain in Asia on Monday in the aftermath of the massive hit taken to U.S.
Gulf Coast output from Hurricane Harvey and follow-on flooding inland in Texas. The U.S. West Texas
Intermediate crude October contract was last quoted up 0.10% to to $ 47.92 a barrel. Elsewhere, on the
ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for October delivery was last quoted at $ 51.98 a barrel.
Hurricane Harvey has knocked offline ~22% of Gulf of Mexico oil production, or nearly 380M bbl/pay
out of 1.75M, and ~26% of natural gas output, or 828M cf/day out of 3.22T, according to the U.S.
Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. In the refining sector,
most Texas Gulf Coast refining and shipping is shut or curtailed. Exxon Mobil closed its Baytown
refinery at the Houston Ship Channel - the second largest refinery in the U.S., with production capacity of
560K bbl/day - due to severe flooding Royal Dutch Shell says its 325K bbl/day Deer Park refinery and
chemical plant complex may be shut for a week, Petrobras shut its 112K bbl/day Pasadena plant, and
Phillips 66 shut its 247K bbl/day Sweeny refinery.
Oil prices ended higher on Friday, as Hurricane Harvey threatened to disrupt production and refinery
activity along the Gulf Coast. About 25% of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production was offline due to storm
activity, the U.S. Department of the Interior's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said on
Saturday. That equates to approximately 428,568 barrels of oil per day out of the roughly 1.75 million bpd
pumped from the Gulf. Around 112 platforms have been evacuated in the Gulf so far as a result of
Harvey, about 15% of those in the region. Half of the drilling rigs in the Gulf have also been evacuated,
BSEE said. Prices received additional support after an update from oilfield services firm Baker Hughes
showed its weekly count of oil rigs operating in the U.S. fell for the second time in row, by four rigs to a
total of 759. The weekly rig count is an important barometer for the drilling industry and serves as a
proxy for oil production and oil services demand. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude October
contract tacked on 44 cents, or around 0.9%, to end at $ 47.87 a barrel by close of trade. Elsewhere, on
the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for October delivery advanced 37 cents, or about 0.7%, to
settle at $52.41 a barrel. The rise in oil prices on Friday failed to offset losses sustained earlier in the
week, as crude futures slipped to their fourth-straight weekly loss. New York-traded crude ended the week
down 64 cents, or nearly 1.3%, while the global Brent benchmark shed 31 cents, or roughly 0.6%. Oil
prices have been under pressure in recent weeks as concern over rising U.S. shale output canceled out
production cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC members.
Oil prices rose on Friday as the U.S. petroleum industry prepared for potential output disruptions as
Hurricane Harvey headed for the heart of the nation's oil industry in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm has
rapidly intensified since Thursday, spinning into potentially the biggest hurricane to hit the U.S. mainland
in 12 years and taking aim between Houston and Corpus Christi on the coast of Texas. West Texas
Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $ 47.74 a barrel at 0320 GMT, up 31 cents, or 0.7 percent, from
their last settlement. International Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $52.39 per barrel, up 35 cents, or
0.7 percent, from their last close. Prices rose as production in the affected area shut down in preparation
for the hurricane, and on expectations that closures could last if the storm causes extensive damage.
"Damage and flooding to refineries and shale fields, disrupted production in the Gulf of Mexico and
infrastructure damage are unlikely to be bearish for WTI. U.S. gasoline prices RBc1 have shot up by
almost 10 percent since Wednesday to $ 1.73 per gallon, their highest level since April as refiners also
shut down in preparation to the storm. Beyond the storm's potential impact on the oil industry, crude
remains in ample supply globally despite efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries to hold back production in order to prop up prices. OPEC, together with other producers
including Russia, has pledged to cut output by around 1.8 million barrels per day this year and during the
first quarter of 2018.
Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, after U.S. government data revealed a weekly climb in domestic
production to the highest level in over two years. An eighth consecutive weekly drop in U.S. crude
supplies helped limit losses. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude October contract was at $48.30 a
barrel by 3:10AM ET, down 11 cents, or around 0.2%. Elsewhere, Brent oil for October delivery on the
ICE Futures Exchange in London dipped 8 cents to $ 52.49 a barrel. Oil prices ended more than 1%
higher on Wednesday, as investors digested weekly supply data from the U.S. Energy Information
Administration. Crude oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels, according to the EIA figures, the eighth
weekly decline in a row. Gasoline stockpiles were down 1.2 million barrels for the week, while distillate
stockpiles remained unchanged, according to the EIA. However, domestic crude production edged up by
26,000 barrels a day to 9.528 million last week, the highest level since July 2015.
Oil prices fell on Wednesday, weighed down by concerns of oversupply as Libyan output improves and as
U.S. gasoline inventories rose despite the peak summer driving season. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the
international benchmark for oil prices, were at $51.65 per barrel at 0655 GMT, down 22 cents, or 0.4
percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $47.65 a barrel,
down 18 cents, or 0.4 percent. Libya's Sharara oil field, the country's largest, was gradually restarting on
Tuesday after a shutdown, although instability in the country means that output there could be volatile,
traders said. Sharara recently reached output of 280,000 barrels per day, but closed earlier this week due
to a pipeline blockade. Its production is key to Libya's oil output, which surged above 1 million bpd in
late June, about four times its level last summer. rising output is a headache for the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries , which together with non-OPEC producers including Russia has pledged
to hold back around 1.8 million bpd of supplies between January this year and March 2018 to tighten
supplies. However, OPEC has so far fallen short of its pledge, in part due to Libya's strong output. The
OPEC-member has been exempt from cuts. towards oil remains bearish amid oversupply fears and the
possible threat of OPEC's supply cut deal falling apart.
Oil prices fell early on Wednesday, squeezed between concerns of oversupply, sparked by rising Libya
output, and fears of reduced future investment in the industry. Brent crude futures, LCOc1 the
international benchmark for oil prices, were at $51.61 per barrel at 0105 GMT, down 26 cents, or 0.5
percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $ 47.63 a barrel,
down 20 cents, or 0.4 percent. Bernstein Research warned that low prices and ample supplies were
resulting in low oil industry investment levels. "We see (oil and gas)...order intake activity at almost the
same low level as in 2016...For now, we remind investors that contract levels appear to still be insufficient
to drive recovery in earnings," Bernstein Research said.
Oil prices inched up early on Tuesday, lifted by indications that supply is gradually tightening, especially
in the United States. Brent crude futures, LCOc1 the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $
51.78 per barrel at 0026 GMT, up 12 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude
futures CLc1 were at $47.52 a barrel, up 15 cents. "U.S. crude oil stocks have been falling consistently in
recent weeks. If the downtrend in oil inventories is maintained, then a bullish case can be made for oil,
especially given the ongoing supply restrictions from OPEC and Russia," said Fawad Razaqzada, market
analyst at futures brokerage Forex.com. U.S. commercial crude inventories have fallen by almost 13
percent from their March peaks, to 466.5 million barrels. And although U.S. crude production has broken
through 9.5 million barrels per day, its highest since July 2015, analysts said this growth may soon slow
as U.S. energy firms are cutting the amount of rigs drilling for new oil. a major commodity exchange, said
that "it looks like the growth in U.S. production is quickly running out of steam and, all else being equal,
this should be good news for OPEC and the price of oil". The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries together with non-OPEC producers including Russia has pledged to hold back around 1.8
million bpd of output between January this year and March 2018 in order to tighten supplies and prop up
prices.
Oil prices fell nearly 2 percent on Monday, pulling back from last week's rally built on signs the global
market is starting to rebalance from chronic oversupply. Brent crude futures LCOc1 lost 2 percent, or
$1.07, at $51.65 a barrel as of 12:01 p.m. EDT , after surging more than 3 percent on Friday. U.S. West
Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 fell 1.9 percent, or 90 cents, to $ 47.63 a barrel. The contract had
also risen 3 percent in the previous session. "We are currently seeing some profit-taking after Friday's
strong rally ahead of this week's inventory data. "Fresh uncertainty about inventories and OPEC
compliance could be enough reason to sell some of the long positions." U.S. hedge funds and money
managers have already started reducing bets on rising prices, with Commodity Futures Trading
Commission data showing on Friday that investors had cut bullish bets on U.S. crude for a second straight
week. in Europe disagree on the outlook, however, as data from the InterContinental Exchange showed
speculators raised bullish Brent crude bets last week. world remains awash with oil despite a deal struck
by some of the world's biggest producers to rein in output. Rising U.S. production has been a major factor
keeping supply and demand from balancing. There are indications that U.S. output may soon slow, as
energy companies cut rigs drilling for new oil for a second week in three, energy services firm Baker
Hughes said on Friday. Drillers cut five rigs in the week to Aug. 18, decreasing the count to 763.
Commercial crude inventories have fallen almost 13 percent from their March peaks to 466.5 million
barrels.
BASE METAL’S OUTLOOK :
Trading Ideas: -
ALUMINIUM -
➢ Aluminium trading range for the day is 129.5-134.3.
➢ Aluminium prices dropped after LME inventories continued to rise.
➢ On-warrant stocks have gained 101,725 tonnes or 10 percent in around two weeks.
➢ Aluminium is finding support from expectations of a decline in supply as China braces for
capacity shutdowns at its smelters over the winter months.
NICKEL -
➢ Nickel trading range for the day is 712.3-755.9.
➢ Nickel dropped as prices took a breather despite news that lawmakers in the Philippines filed a bill
to ban mining in watershed areas and halt exports of unprocessed ores.
➢ Net imports of refined nickel were 19,700 tonnes in July, the highest monthly total so far this year.
➢ Existing home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased in the month of July, according to a report
released by the National Association of Realtors.
ZINC -
➢ Zinc trading range for the day is 191.6-202.4.
➢ Zinc dropped tracking weakness in LME prices due to profit booking after prices seen supported
on the back of robust demand signs in China and falling stockpiles.
➢ Bulls will take heart from July’s refined metal imports of 68,000 tonnes, the highest monthly tally
since March 2016.
➢ Concentrate imports are up 26 percent at 1.46 million tonnes this year, largely because of a close
to 50 percent surge from Peru.
COPPER -
➢ Copper trading range for the day is 422.6-433.4.
➢ Copper dropped as investors locked in profits from a rally seen after driven by computer-driven
funds as inventories continued to fall.
➢ Weekly copper stocks in warehouses registered by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 8.2
percent to 187,444 tonnes, data showed.
➢ China’s latest trade figures on copper offered little in the way of fresh insight but rather an
extension of the twin trends of lower Chinese imports of refined metal.
BASE METAL
NICKEL✍ - ( 26 - AUG - 2017 )
Nickel prices declined by 0.46 per cent to Rs 751.20 per kg in futures trade today as speculators cut down
bets, driven by easing demand in the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery
in September fell by Rs 3.50, or 0.46 per cent, to Rs 751.20 per kg, in a business turnover of 182 lots.
Likewise, the metal for delivery in August shed Rs 3.30, or 0.44 per cent, to Rs 747.20 per kg in 536 lots.
Analysts said offloading of positions by participants on the back of sluggish demand from alloy-makers in
the spot market, mainly weighed on nickel prices at futures trade.
LEAD✍ - ( 26 - AUG - 2017 )
Lead prices rose by 0.33 per cent to Rs 152.15 per kg in futures trade today as speculators built up
positions, driven by a firming trend at the spot market on rising demand from battery makers. At the Multi
Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in current month was up 50 paise, or 0.33 per cent, at Rs 152.15
per kg, in a business turnover of 94 lots. According to market analysts, rising demand from battery makers
at spot markets helped lead futures trade higher.
COPPER✍ - ( 25 - AUG - 2017 )
Copper prices were trading higher by 0.36 per cent to Rs 423.05 per kg in futures trading today as
speculators raised bets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in current month spurted
by Rs 1.50, or 0.36 per cent, to Rs 423.05 per kg in a business turnover of 466 lots. Similarly, the metal
for delivery in November traded higher by Rs 1.30, or 0.30 per cent, to Rs 428.70 per kg in 10 lots.
Analysts attributed the rise in copper futures trade to raising of bets by participants following a firm trend
at the domestic spot markets on increased demand.
ALUMINIUM✍ - ( 25 - AUG - 2017 )
Aluminium prices eased further by 0.49 per cent to Rs 133.30 per kg in futures trade today as speculators
engaged in reducing their exposure amid subdued demand from consuming industries in the spot market.
At the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in August shed 65 paise, or 0.49 per cent to
trade at Rs 133.30 per kg in business turnover of 697 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in September
contracts traded lower by 65 paise, or 0.48 per cent to Rs 134.10 per kg in 64 lots. Analysts said cutting
down of holdings by participants on the back of tepid demand from consuming industries in the physical
market mainly kept aluminium prices lower at futures trade.
ZINC✍ - ( 25 - AUG - 2017 )
Zinc prices were up by 0.33 per cent to Rs 199.35 per kg in futures trade today as speculators built up
positions, driven by uptick in demand in the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for
delivery in August edged up by 65 paise, or 0.33 per cent to Rs 199.35 per kg in business turnover of
1,987 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in September contracts was trading higher by a similar margin
to Rs 199.95 per kg in 62 lots. Analysts said fresh positions created by traders following upsurge in
demand from consuming industries in the spot market, mainly influenced zinc prices at futures trade.
ALUMINIUM✍ - ( 24 - AUG - 2017 )
Aluminium prices were trading up by 1.33 per cent to Rs 133.45 per kg in futures trade today as
speculators built up fresh positions amid pick-up in demand in the spot market.
Aluminium for delivery in September moved up by Rs 1.75, or 1.33 per cent, to Rs 133.45 per kg in a
business turnover of 292 lots at the Multi Commodity Exchange. Similarly, the metal for delivery in
August was trading higher by Rs 1.70, or 1.30 per cent, to Rs 132.75 per kg in 1,155 lots. Analysts said
fresh positions created by participants due to uptick in demand from consuming industries in the spot
market mainly led to the rise in aluminium prices at futures trade.
LEAD✍ - ( 24 - AUG - 2017 )
Lead prices edged higher by 1 per cent to Rs 151.90 per kg in futures trade today as speculators created
fresh positions supported by rising demand from battery-makers in domestic spot markets. At the Multi
Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in August was up by Rs 1.50, or 1 per cent, to Rs 151.90 per kg
in a business turnover of 2,181 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in September was trading higher by
Rs 1.35, or 0.89 per cent, to Rs 152.95 per kg in 150 lots. Analysts attributed the rise in lead futures to
fresh positions built up by participants following pick-up in demand from battery-makers at domestic spot
market.
ZINC✍ - ( 23 - AUG - 2017 )
Zinc surged above $3,000 a metric ton for the first time in almost a decade while aluminum approached a
three-year high, adding momentum to a metals rally fueled by bets on tightening supplies and robust
demand. Zinc jumped as much as 5.8 per cent to $3,132.50 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, the
highest since 2007, before settling at $3,119 at 5:51 p.m. in London. Aluminum rose as much as 2.7 per
cent to the highest since September 2014, while nickel, copper and lead also advanced. The rally boosted
mining shares, with Freeport-McMoRan Inc. among the biggest gainers.
ALUMINIUM✍ - ( 22 - AUG - 2017 )
Aluminium prices were trading up by 1.33 per cent to Rs 133.45 per kg in futures trade today as
speculators built up fresh positions amid pick-up in demand in the spot market. Aluminium for delivery in
September moved up by Rs 1.75, or 1.33 per cent, to Rs 133.45 per kg in a business turnover of 292 lots
at the Multi Commodity Exchange. Similarly, the metal for delivery in August was trading higher by Rs
1.70, or 1.30 per cent, to Rs 132.75 per kg in 1,155 lots. Analysts said fresh positions created by
participants due to uptick in demand from consuming industries in the spot market mainly led to the rise
in aluminium prices at futures trade.
LEAD✍ - ( 22 - AUG - 2017 )
Lead prices edged higher by 1 per cent to Rs 151.90 per kg in futures trade today as speculators created
fresh positions supported by rising demand from battery-makers in domestic spot markets. At the Multi
Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in August was up by Rs 1.50, or 1 per cent, to Rs 151.90 per kg
in a business turnover of 2,181 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in September was trading higher by
Rs 1.35, or 0.89 per cent, to Rs 152.95 per kg in 150 lots. Analysts attributed the rise in lead futures to
fresh positions built up by participants following pick-up in demand from battery-makers at domestic spot
market.
ZINC✍ - ( 21 - AUG - 2017 )
Zinc surged above $3,000 a metric ton for the first time in almost a decade while aluminum approached a
three-year high, adding momentum to a metals rally fueled by bets on tightening supplies and robust
demand. Zinc jumped as much as 5.8 per cent to $3,132.50 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, the
highest since 2007, before settling at $3,119 at 5:51 p.m. in London. Aluminum rose as much as 2.7 per
cent to the highest since September 2014, while nickel, copper and lead also advanced. The rally boosted
mining shares, with Freeport-McMoRan Inc. among the biggest gainers.
ALUMINIUM✍ - ( 21 - AUG - 2017 )
Aluminium prices were higher by 2.16 per cent to Rs 132.40 per kg in futures trade today as speculators
built up fresh positions, driven by pick up in demand at the spot market. At the Multi Commodity
Exchange, aluminium for delivery in September went up by Rs 2.80, or 2.16 per cent to Rs 132.40 per kg
in business turnover of 492 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in August was trading higher by Rs 2.75,
or 2.13 per cent to Rs 131.70 per kg in 986 lots. Analysts said fresh positions created by participants on
the back of rise in demand from consuming industries in the spot market, mainly attributed the rise in
aluminium prices at futures trade.
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES OF NCDEX MARKET -
REFINED SOYA OIL✍ - ( 26 - AUG - 2017 )
Extending its rising streak for the second day, refined soya oil prices strengthened by another 0.49 per
cent to Rs 672.30 per 10 kg in futures trading today as speculators engaged in building up
positions,driven by rising demand in the spot market. At the National Commodity and Derivatives
Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in October gained Rs 3.25, or 0.49 per cent to Rs 672.30 per 10 kg
with an open interest of 39,910 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in September contracts was trading
higher by Rs 2.65, or 0.40 per cent to Rs 663.50 per 10 kg in 47,420 lots. Analysts said expanding of
positions by traders on the back of rising demand in the spot market against restricted supplies from
producing belts mainly kept refined soya oil prices in positive terrain at futures trade.
WHEAT✍ - ( 26 - AUG - 2017 )
Wheat prices were marginally up by 0.12 per cent to Rs 1,677 per quintal in futures trade today on
speculative buying. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, wheat for delivery in October
traded marginally up by Rs 2, or 0.12 per cent to Rs 1,677 per quintal with an open interest of 1,350 lots.
However, wheat for delivery in September contracts held steady at Rs 1,655 per quintal in 15,700 lots.
Analysts attributed the marginal rise in wheat futures to raising of bet s by speculators.
CHANA✍ - ( 25 - AUG - 2017 )
Chana prices rose by 1.25 per cent to Rs 5,855 per quintal in futures trading today as traders built up fresh
positions amid uptick in demand in the spot market. At the National Commodity and Derivatives
Exchange, chana for delivery in October shot up by Rs 72, or 1.25 per cent to Rs 5,855 per quintal with
an open interest of 18,210 lots. Likewise, the commodity for delivery in September contracts traded
higher by Rs 53, or 0.90 per cent to Rs 5,912 per quintal in 21,980 lots. Analysts attributed the rise in
chana prices in futures trade to fresh positions created by participants after pick up in demand in the spot
market.
CRUDE PALM OIL✍ - ( 24 - AUG - 2017 )
Crude palm oil prices rose by 0.54 per cent to Rs 516.80 per 10 kg in futures trading today as speculators
enlarged positions on the back of rising demand in the spot market. Moreover, a tight stocks in the market
due to fall in supplies from producing belts supported the upmove. At the Multi Commodity Exchange,
crude palm oil for delivery in September went up by Rs 2.80, or 0.54 per cent to Rs 516.80 per 10 kg in
business turnover of 95 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in August traded higher by Rs 2.50, or 0.48 per
cent to Rs 518.50 per 10 kg in 31 lots. Marketmen said widening of positions by traders due to pick up in
demand in the spot market against restricted supplies from producing belts, mainly led to rise in crude
palm oil prices at futures trade.
MENTHA OIL✍ - ( 24 - AUG - 2017 )
Mentha oil prices drifted lower by 1.86 per cent to Rs 1,161 per kg in futures trade today as speculators
trimmed their positions, taking negative cues from spot market on fall in demand from consuming
industries. Besides, ample stock positions on higher supplies from producing regions too weighed on
mentha oil prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in August fell by Rs 22, or
1.86 per cent to Rs 1,161 per kg in business turnover of 385 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in
September contracts declined by Rs 21.80, or 1.82 per cent to Rs 1,174.10 per kg in 282 lots. Analysts
said offloading of positions by traders owing to slackened demand from consuming industries in the spot
market against adequate stocks position on increased supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh mainly
led to the fall in mentha oil prices at futures trade.
GUAR GUM✍ - ( 24 - AUG - 2017 )
Tracking a firming trend in global markets, guar gum prices flared up by Rs 67 to Rs 8,684 per quintal in
futures trade today as participants widening their positions. Marketmen said raising of bets by operators,
driven by a firming trend overseas and strong export demand lifted guar gum prices in futures trade here.
Moreover, halt in supplies in domestic markets from producing belts enthused trading sentiments, they
added. At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, guar gum to be delivered in far-month
November month contracts hardened by Rs 67 or 0.78 per cent to Rs 8,684 per quintal, in an open interest
of 5,185 lots. Likewise, the most-traded delivery in October month contract surged by Rs 62 or 0.73 per
cent to Rs 8,558 per quintal, persisting an open interest of 44,585 lots.
CASTOR SEED✍ - ( 24 - AUG - 2017 )
Castor seed prices dropped by Rs 20 to Rs 4,650 per quintal after traders liquidated holdings amid a weak
trend at the physical markets. Marketmen said the fall in castor seed prices in futures trade was offloading
of positions by participants amid a subdued trend at the spot markets on increased arrivals from growing
belts against muted demand from consuming industries. Besides fading export demand kept pressure on
castor seed prices here, they added. At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, castor seed for
delivery in September contracts slipped by Rs 20 or 0.43 per cent to Rs 4,650 per quintal, having an open
interest of 69,330 lots. In a similar way, the delivery for the October contract eased by Rs 19 or 0.40 per
cent to Rs 4,749 per quintal, with the business turnover of 31,790 lots.
CHANA✍ - ( 24 - AUG - 2017 )
Continuing its rising streak for the second day, chana prices shot up by another 1.59 per cent to Rs 5,759
per quintal in futures trade today as participants engaged in enlarging their positions, tracking a firm trend
at spot market on rising demand. Besides, tight stocks position on fall in supplies from producing regions
and enquiries from dal mills fuelled the uptrend. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange,
chana for delivery in September month jumped up by Rs 90, or 1.59 per cent, to Rs 5,759 per quintal with
an open interest of 18,690 lots. In a similar fashion, the commodity for delivery in October gained Rs 86,
or 1.54 per cent, to Rs 5,668 per quintal in 14,170 lots. Analysts said expanding of positions by traders,
driven by strong demand in the physical markets against tight stocks position on decline in arrivals from
producing belts mainly kept chana prices higher at futures trade.
CRUDE PALM OIL✍ - ( 23 - AUG - 2017 )
Amid pick up in domestic demand at the spot market, restricted supplies from producing belts, crude palm
oil prices went up by 0.91 per cent to Rs 519 per 10 kg in futures trade today as speculators created fresh
positions. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in September rose by Rs 4.70,
or 0.91 per cent to Rs 519 per 10 kg in business turnover of 165 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in
August contracts was trading higher by Rs 4.20, or 0.82 per cent to Rs 519 per 10 kg in 97 lots. Analysts
said fresh positions built up by participants following pick up in demand in the physical markets against
restricted arrivals from growing regions , mainly led to the rise in crude palm oil prices at futures trade.
MENTHA OIL✍ - ( 23 - AUG - 2017 )
Mentha oil prices fell by 0.97 per cent to Rs 1,172 per kg in futures trade today as speculators trimmed
their positions, taking negative cues from spot market on easing demand from industries. Besides, ample
stock positions on higher supplies from producing regions too weighed on mentha oil prices. At the Multi
Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in August declined by Rs 11.50, or 0.97 per cent to Rs
1,172 per kg in business turnover of 321 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in September contracts shed
Rs 11.30, or 0.94 per cent to Rs 1,184.50 per kg in 165 lots. Analysts said cutting down of positions by
participants owing to slackened demand from consuming industries in the spot market against ample
stock positions on higher supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh mainly led to the fall in mentha oil
prices in futures trade.
REFINED SOYA OIL✍ - ( 23 - AUG - 2017 )
Rising for the second day, refined soya oil prices advanced by 0.46 per cent to Rs 671.45 per 10 kg in
futures trading today as speculators engaged in building up positions, taking positive cues from spot
market on strong demand. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for
delivery in October month rose by Rs 3.10, or 0.46 per cent, to Rs 671.45 per 10 kg with an open interest
of 30,420 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in September contracts was trading higher by Rs 2.40, or
0.36 per cent, to Rs 661.50 per 10 kg in 50,200 lots. Analysts said widening of positions by traders,
tracking a firm trend at spot market on rising demand against restricted arrivals from producing regions,
mainly kept refined soya oil prices higher at futures trade.
REFINED SOYA OIL✍ - ( 22 - AUG - 2017 )
Refined soya oil prices edged up by 0.23 per cent to Rs 667.55 per 10 kg in futures trading today as
speculators created fresh positions supported by pick up in demand. Besides, tight stocks position on fall
in supplies from producing regions fuelled the uptrend. Besides, tight stocks position on fall in supplies
from producing regions fuelled the uptrend. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange,
refined soya oil for delivery in October rose Rs 1.55, or 0.23 per cent, to Rs 667.55 per 10 kg with an
open interest of 26,200 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in September edged up by 90 paise, or
0.14 per cent, to Rs 657.75 per 10 kg in 48,710 lots. Analysts said fresh positions created by traders
following upsurge in demand in the physical market against restricted arrivals from producing regions,
mainly led to the rise in refined soya oil prices at futures trade.
CRUDE PALM OIL✍ - ( 22 - AUG - 2017 )
Crude palm oil prices weakened by 0.06 per cent to Rs 509.40 per 10 kg in futures market today as traders
reduced exposure amid subdued demand in the spot market. Besides, ample stocks position following
higher supplies from producing belts fuelled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude
palm oil for delivery in August shed 30 paise, or 0.06 per cent, to Rs 509.40 per 10 kg in a business
turnover of 55 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in September was trading lower by 20 paise, or
0.04 per cent, to Rs 511.30 per 10 kg in 53 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by speculators
owing to slackened demand in the spot market against ample stocks position mainly weighed on crude
palm oil prices.
MUSTARD SEED✍ - ( 22 - AUG - 2017 )
Mustard seed prices were higher by Rs 13 to Rs 3,800 per quintal in futures trade today as traders raised
their bets in tune with rising demand in spot markets. According to marketmen, widening of holdings by
speculators back up by strong demand in the spot markets, that influenced mustard seed prices in futures
trade. At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, mustard seed prices rose by Rs 13 or 0.34
per cent to Rs 3,800 per quintal, with the business turnover of 57,120 open lots. Likewise, the delivery for
the October contract rose by a similar margin to trade at Rs 3,843 per quintal, open interest stood at
11,280 lots.
GUAR GUM✍ - ( 21 - AUG - 2017 )
Guar gum prices soared by Rs 188 to Rs 8,365 per quintal in futures trade today following widening of
holdings by operators, due to upbeat cues in the spot and overseas. Market players said the rise in guar
gum prices in futures trade was mostly supported by a firm trend at the spot markets, sparked by robust
spot and overseas demand amid halt in arrivals from producing belts. At the National Commodity and
Derivatives Exchange, guar gum for delivery in October flared up by Rs 188, or 2.30 per cent, to Rs 8,365
per quintal, having an open interest of 43,625 lots. The delivery for the November too spurted by Rs 182,
or 2.19 per cent, to Rs 8,485 per quintal, with an open interest of 4,075 lots.
CRUDE PALM OIL✍ - ( 21 - AUG - 2017 )
Crude palm oil prices drifted lower by 0.66 per cent to Rs 494.70 per 10 kg in futures trade today as
traders booked profits amid easing demand at the spot market. Besides, sufficient stocks position
following higher supplies from the producing belts too fuelled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity
Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in August declined by Rs 3.30, or 0.66 per cent to Rs 494.70 per 10
kg in business turnover of 107 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in September contracts was trading
lower by Rs 3.20, or 0.64 per cent to Rs 496.40 per 10 kg in 82 lots. Analysts said besides profit-booking
by speculators at prevailing higher levels, fall in demand at the spot market against ample stocks position
mainly weighed on crude palm oil prices.
CHANA✍ - ( 21 - AUG - 2017 )
Chana prices fell by 1.19 per cent to Rs 5,470 per quintal in futures trade today as speculators booked
profits amid fall in demand in the spot market. In futures trading at the Multi Commodity Exchange,
crude palm oil for delivery in September fell by Rs 66, or 1.19 per cent to Rs 5,470 per quintal with an
open interest of 16,880 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in October declined by Rs 48, or 0.88 per cent
to Rs 5,382 in 13,350 lots. Analysts said besides profit-booking by participants at prevailing higher levels,
easing demand at the spot market against ample stocks position mainly weighed on chana prices at futures
trade.
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Commodity Research Report 28 August 2017 Ways2Capital

  • 1.
  • 2. BULLION METALS OUTLOOK - GOLD - Gold on MCX settled up 0.2% at 29164 recouping much of the decline suffered in the previous session, as a wobbly dollar and losses in U.S. equities. Overnight, gold prices rose as US political uncertainty resurfaced, after President Donald Trump threatened to ‘close down’ the government, sparking fresh fears that continued political uncertainty in Washington could further delay the introduction of tax-reform. Gold’s path to $ 1300 was made easier somewhat as investors fretted the possibility of further turmoil in Washington , following President Trump’s threat to shut down the government if he does not get funding for a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. Also on Wednesday, US economic data were mixed, with the service and manufacturing sectors going in different directions in August. The IHS Markit flash manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to a two-month low, while the services PMI rose to a 28-month high. New-home sales fell to a seven-month low in July. Now traders and investors showed caution ahead of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank’s three-day Jackson Hole, Wyo., symposium of global central bankers beginning Thursday. Financial markets will be looking for hints from central bankers on any changes to monetary policy, especially in marquee speeches from the Fed’s Janet Yellen and the ECB’s Mario Draghi on Friday. Higher rates tend to boost the dollar, cutting demand for gold investors using other currencies. Higher rates also boost the appeal of investments that offer a yield, which gold does not. Technically market is getting support at 29088 and below same could see a test of 29011 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 29228, a move above could see prices testing 29291. GOLD CHART Chart Details - On the Above given Daily Chart of Gold has Appiles the Bollinger Band Along with MACD A closer look at price action sees gold holding within the confines of a well-defined ascending channel formation off the July lows. Last week we highlighted that the rally in gold price had failed at, “1300 before pulling back sharply. Price response to this level leaves the immediate risk lower heading into next week, but the broader outlook remains weighted to the topside while above 1251. A topside breach eyes subsequent targets at 1321/25.” Prices held a tight range into the start of the week with Fed Chair Yellen’s speech on Friday charging a quick drop before turning sharply higher to close the week in the black. Technically market is getting support at 29088 and below same could see a test of 29011 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 29228, a move above could see prices testing 29291. Monday 28 Aug 2017
  • 3. SILVER -Silver on MCX settled up 0.35% at 39074 as sentiment on the greenback soured following remarks by U.S. President Trump and as investors remained cautious ahead of Jackson Hole summit. Gold’s path to $ 1,300 was made easier somewhat as investors fretted the possibility of further turmoil in Washington, following President Trump’s threat to shut down the government if he does not get funding for a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. New U.S. single-family home sales unexpectedly fell in July, dropping to their lowest in seven months amid a surge in prices, raising concerns of a slowdown in the housing market recovery. Euro zone business growth maintained a solid clip in August, driven by the best manufacturing performance in 6-1/2 years despite a strong euro, easily offsetting a mild slowdown in services growth, a key private sector survey showed. Unconventional monetary policy is a success, but gaps in understanding the relatively new tools remain, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said, cautioning against hasty policy responses to the new reality. The European Central Bank should quickly end asset buys next year as the outlook does not warrant the extension of its 2.3 trillion euro scheme, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said, weighing in on the biggest issue facing the ECB this autumn. Traders, however, remained cautious of initiating large positions in the precious metal ahead of speeches by European Central Bank president Mario Draghi and Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen at a two-day central banking symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which gets underway on Thursday. Technically now Silver is getting support at 38907 and below same could see a test of 38741 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 39192, a move above could see prices testing 39311. SILVER CHART Detail of Chart -Silver continues to maintain the rising channel and despite last week’s key reversal-day we’ll continue to respect the lower parallel for as long as it holds. There has been a lot of ‘play’ around the 200-day MA, with several days failing to close above only twice it has, fractionally during the past couple of weeks. We are definitely seeing this moving average exert its influence. If silver can free itself from the 200-day, a break to the 8/18 high at 17.32 can unfold, which depending on the timing may be in confluence with the trend-line running down off the 2017 high. Technically now Silver is getting support at 38907 and below same could see a test of 38741 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 39192, a move above could see prices testing 39311.
  • 4. MCX DAILY LEVELS✍ DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 ALUMINIUM 31-AUG-17 143 139 135 133 131 129 127 123 119 COPPER 31- AUG-2017 442 437 432 429 427 424 422 417 412 CRUDE OIL 19-SEP-17 3153 3121 3089 3073 3057 3041 3025 2993 2961 GOLD 05-OCT-2017 30397 29950 29503 29335 29056 28888 28609 28162 27715 LEAD 31-AUG-17 163 158 153 150 148 145 143 138 133 NATURAL GAS 26-SEP-2017 201 196 191 188 186 183 181 176 171 NICKEL 31-AUG-17 799 777 755 742 733 720 711 689 667 SILVER 05-SEP-2017 41796 40821 39846 39429 38871 38454 37896 36921 35946 ZINC 31-AUG-17 215 209 203 199 197 193 191 185 179 MCX WEEKLY LEVELS✍ WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 ALUMINIUM 31-AUG-17 144 138 136 134 132 130 128 123 118 COPPER 31-AUG-17 466 452 438 432 424 418 410 396 382 CRUDE OIL 19-SEP-17 3388 3280 3172 3115 3064 3007 2956 2848 2740 GOLD 05-OCT-2017 30697 30160 29623 29395 29086 28858 28549 28012 27475 LEAD 31-AUG-17 173 165 157 152 149 144 141 133 125 NATURAL GAS 26-SEP-2017 211 203 195 190 187 182 179 171 163 NICKEL 31-AUG-17 873 825 777 753 729 705 681 633 585 SILVER 05-SEP-2017 41796 40821 39846 39429 38871 38454 37896 36921 35946 ZINC 31-AUG-17 221 213 205 200 197 192 189 181 173
  • 5. FOREX DAILY LEVELS✍ DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 USDINR 29-AUG-17 64.24 64.22 64.20 64.18 64.14 64.10 63.96 63.92 63.88 EURINR 29-AUG-17 76.64 76.54 76.40 76.28 76.06 75.86 75.48 75.22 75.10 GBPINR 29-AUG-17 83.52 83.24 82.92 82.74 82.16 81.96 81.74 81.26 81.04 JPYINR 29-AUG-17 59.44 59.20 59.06 58.86 58.76 58.68 58.52 58.46 58.12 FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍ WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 USDINR 29-AUG-17 64.82 64.64 64.46 64.22 64.08 63.94 63.70 63.48 63.26 EURINR 29-AUG-17 77.78 77.04 76.82 76.40 76.14 75.88 75.06 74.98 74.62 GBPINR 29-AUG-17 84.92 84.62 83.77 83.18 82.93 81.92 81.12 80.78 79.93 JPYINR 29-AUG-17 62.45 62.07 61.86 61.64 60.58 59.26 58.74 58.55 58.27
  • 6. NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍ DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 SYOREFIDR 20-SEP -2017 675 671 667 665 663 661 659 655 651 SYBEANIDR 20-SEP -2017 3385 3346 3307 3292 3268 3253 3229 3190 3151 RMSEED 20-SEP -2017 4041 3977 3913 3888 3849 3824 3785 3721 3657 JEERAUNJHA 20-SEP -2017 21401 20951 20501 20303 20051 19853 19601 19151 18701 GUARSEED10 20-SEP -2017 4644 4490 4336 4285 4182 4131 4028 3874 3720 TMC 20-SEP -2017 7780 7660 7540 7480 7420 7360 7300 7180 7060 NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍ WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4 SYOREFIDR 20-SEP -2017 676 662 648 643 634 629 620 606 592 SYBEANIDR 20-SEP -2017 3415 3306 3252 3197 3011 2950 2888 2800 2770 RMSEED 20-SEP -2017 4196 4016 3836 3767 3656 3587 3476 3296 3116 JEERAUNJHA 20-SEP -2017 25726 23571 21416 20378 19261 18223 17106 14951 13874 GUARSEED10 20-SEP -2017 4718 4468 4218 3968 3875 3783 3625 3468 3375 TMC 20-SEP -2017 9789 8947 8105 7818 7263 6976 6421 5579 5158
  • 7. MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )✍ GOLD✍ Gold prices gained slightly in Asia on Monday as investors noted the weaker dollar as central bank chiefs in Wyoming dodged policy discussions and the impact of Hurricane Harvey on the U.S. growth outlook was under review. Gold futures for December delivery rose 0.14% to $1,299.66 a troy ounce. This week, Friday’s U.S. jobs report for August is in focus to gauge how it will impact on the path of Fed policy. Traders will also be closely watching a revised reading of U.S. second quarter growth. Financial markets in the UK are closed on Monday. Last week, gold prices ended higher in a volatile session on Friday, reversing earlier losses as the U.S. dollar weakened after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole didn’t specifically address monetary policy. Gold gained ground as the dollar fell after Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium did not discuss the outlook for monetary policy, disappointing some investors who had hoped she would sound a hawkish tone. The dollar index has fallen around 10% so far this year amid ongoing uncertainty over the economic agenda of U.S. President Donald Trump and doubts that the Fed will deliver a third rate hike this year. A weaker U.S. currency makes the dollar-denominated metal cheaper for foreign buyers. Among base metals, copper ended at $3.05 a pound, remaining close to three year highs amid expectations that ongoing demand from China will continue to support prices. Gold prices ended higher in a volatile session on Friday, reversing earlier losses as the U.S. dollar weakened after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole didn’t specifically address monetary policy. Gold futures for December delivery settled up 0.3% at $1,295.95 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, after falling as low as $1,281.3 earlier, the weakest level since August 16. Gold gained ground as the dollar fell after Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium did not discuss the outlook for monetary policy, disappointing some investors who had hoped she would sound a hawkish tone. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.82% at 93.47 late Friday after falling as low as 92.34 earlier. The dollar index has fallen around 10% so far this year amid ongoing uncertainty over the economic agenda of U.S. President Donald Trump and doubts that the Fed will deliver a third rate hike this year. A weaker U.S. currency makes the dollar-denominated metal cheaper for foreign buyers. Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver rose 0.57% to $17.07 a troy ounce late Friday, while platinum was down 0.54% at $977.3. Among base metals, copper ended at $3.05 a pound, remaining close to three year highs amid expectations that ongoing demand from China will continue to support prices. In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. jobs report for August to gauge how it will impact on the path of Fed policy. Traders will also be closely watching a revised reading of U.S. second quarter growth.
  • 8. Thursday’s euro zone preliminary inflation estimate will also be in focus. Gold firmed on Friday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen made no mention of monetary policy in her much-anticipated speech, while investors awaited clues from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose slightly, reflecting reduced expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates further this year, after Yellen skipped mention of it when speaking in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. relieved the market of a little bit of concern about that," said Bill O'Neill, partner with Logic Advisors in Saddle River, New Jersey, adding this was positive for gold prices and pressured the dollar. She clearly came off dovish, saying maybe we need a few changes in bank regulation, but they should be modest." Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the greenback. Draghi is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole central bankers meeting at 1900 GMT. Monday is a bank holiday in the United Kingdom. Spot gold XAU= was up 0.5 percent at $ 1,292.14 an ounce by 2:00 p.m. EST and was on track to close the week up 0.6 percent. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up 0.5 percent at $ 1,297.90. Earlier, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan called for patience on raising interest rates any further but urged speed in reducing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. data showed home resales unexpectedly fell in July to an 11-month low as a chronic shortage of properties boosted prices, the latest sign that the housing market recovery was slowing. Weekly jobless claims rose, and new orders for key U.S.-made capital goods were better than expected in July. geopolitical concerns were also preventing gold prices from retreating significantly, market participants said. Gold prices were little changed on Friday, as investors remained cautious ahead of comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi at Jackson Hole later in the day. Comex gold futures were steady at $ 1,292.06 a troy ounce by 03:00 a.m. ET. Neither Yellen nor Draghi were expected to announce new policy messages later Friday, but market participants will be eyeing any potential hints on future policy moves. Gold prices had benefited from a weaker dollar earlier in the week, after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would be willing to shut down the government to finance a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and that he might terminate the NAFTA trade treaty. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was steady at 93.26. The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases. Market participants were also looking ahead to U.S. reports on durable goods orders, due later in the day. Elsewhere on the Comex, silver futures were steady at $16.96 a troy ounce. Gold dipped slightly in Asia on Friday with markets poised to react to any cues on monetary policy from the Fed or European Central bank chiefs later in the day. Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.01% to $1,291.94 a troy ounce. Overnight, gold prices were flat amid thin trading volumes as market participants awaited clues on monetary policy
  • 9. from a central banking symposium in Jackson Hall which got underway on Thursday. Gold traded in a narrow $6 range, as traders appeared to keep their powder dry ahead of key speeches by European Central Bank president Mario Draghi and Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen. Draghi, however, is not expected to offer much insight into the European Central Bank’s thinking on monetary policy but traders are expected to parse Yellen’s comments to gauge the Fed’s sentiment on a third rate hike later this year. Analyst expectations have turned lower for a third rate hike in December, following the release of the Fed’s minutes last week showing that policymakers remained concerned with the slow pace of inflation. “Yes the Fed may hike in December and yes the ECB may announce a further taper for 2018 in October but recent events may mean that now might not be the time they choose to guide markets towards such an outcome. Gold prices nudged lower on Thursday, but held near the $1,300-level as market players awaited comments on monetary policy from the Jackson Hole meeting set to begin later in the day. An annual meeting of top central bankers and economists hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is set to take place from Thursday to Saturday. The focus will be on speeches from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Friday. Their comments will be closely watched for fresh policy signals from the world’s two most powerful central banks. Comex gold futures slipped $1.10, or around 0.1%, to $1,293.64 a troy ounce by 2:50AM ET. The yellow metal rose to its highest level since November at $1,306.90 late last week. Gold prices added about 0.3% on Wednesday, as U.S. political developments kept investors on edge and supported safe-haven demand for the precious metal. President Donald Trump raised the specter of a government shutdown to fulfill a campaign pledge of building a wall at the U.S.-Mexican border. Elsewhere on the Comex, silver futures inched down 3.8 cents, or around 0.2%, to $17.00 a troy ounce. Gold prices fell in Asia on Thursday as investors geared up for a slate of central bank chiefs at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, over the next two days to discuss global monetary policies. Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange drifted down 0.12% to $1,293.20 a troy ounce. Traders remained cautious of initiating large positions in the precious metal ahead of speeches by European Central Bank president Mario Draghi and Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen at the central banking symposium. The Jackson Hole conclave is expected to shed further light on the path of interest rate hikes in the U.S. this year and on unwinding stimulus efforts by central banks globally, with a particular focus on the European Central Bank. Ahead of the central banking symposium analysts have scaled back expectations of further monetary policy tightening. “Yes the Fed may hike in December and yes the ECB may announce a further taper for 2018 in October but recent events (softer inflation, softer market sentiment and the strong Euro for the ECB) may mean that now might not be the time they choose to guide markets towards such an outcome. Gold prices held steady near the key $1,300-level on Wednesday, as market players braced for an annual gathering of central bankers, where the heads of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are set to deliver speeches on the outlook for monetary policy and interest rates. Comex gold futures tacked on
  • 10. $1.20, or around 0.1%, to $1,292.22 a troy ounce by 2:45AM ET. The yellow metal rose to its highest level since November at $1,306.90 late last week. Gold prices fell on Tuesday, as strength in the U.S. dollar pressured the precious metal. An annual meeting of top central bankers and economists hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is set to take place from Thursday to Saturday, with keynote speeches from Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi in the spotlight. Their comments will be closely watched for fresh policy signals from the world’s two most powerful central banks. Meanwhile, U.S. political developments kept investors on edge after President Donald Trump raised the specter of a government shutdown to fulfill a campaign pledge of building a wall at the U.S.-Mexican border. Gold prices fell on Tuesday, pressured by the stronger U.S. dollar ahead of an annual meeting of central bankers this week, while palladium fell from its highest level since February 2001. Spot gold XAU= was down 0.4 percent at $ 1,285.25 an ounce by 2:15 p.m. EDT, holding near last week's peak at $1,300.80, its highest since early November. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled down 0.4 percent at $1,291. Investors awaited speeches by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Friday at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for clues to the direction of interest and currency rates. The firm greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies, which could subdue demand. "Draghi could take the opportunity to downplay the idea of monetary tightening in the euro zone, which would have a dampening effect on the euro and lift the dollar. "From the Fed's perspective, we think they are not too concerned about weaker than expected inflation readings. It's pretty clear the Fed needs to raise rates." The Federal Reserve next meets on Sept. 19-20. Fed funds futures prices show traders see a 42 percent chance of an interest rate increase by the December meeting, with a marginal chance of a rate cut. monetary policy, especially from the Fed, and/or significant escalation of geopolitical risks are potential triggers. We expect the former to have a more durable price impact," said Joni Teves, strategist for UBS, in reference to what could drive gold prices above $ 1,300. Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday, as market players looked ahead to the annual meeting of top central bankers and economists in Jackson Hole, Wyoming later this week. Comex gold futures shed $ 7.50, or around 0.6%, to $ 1,289.15 a troy ounce by 3:05AM ET. The yellow metal logged its highest finish in nearly 11 weeks on Monday as tensions between the U.S. and North Korea came back in focus. An annual meeting of top central bankers and economists hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is set to take place from Thursday to Saturday, with keynote speeches from Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi in the spotlight. Their comments will be closely watched for fresh policy signals from the world’s two most powerful central banks. Fed chair Yellen will speak on the topic of financial stability at 10:00AM ET Friday. With minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's latest deliberations showing concern about soft inflation, she is not likely to give new guidance on policy. Markets remain skeptical the Fed will raise rates a third time this year due to worries over the subdued inflation outlook, but it is widely expected to start the process of reducing its balance sheet by September. Later in the day, ECB chief Draghi will deliver remarks at 3:00PM ET. While market expectations had
  • 11. been previously high that Draghi would use his address to signal ECB tapering in the autumn, reports last week suggest he will not be making major policy announcements. Investors are likely to continue to fret over the latest headlines coming out of Washington after political developments shook the market last week. Gold dipped in Asia on Tuesday after President Donald Trump laid out a strategy for keeping troops in Afghanistan after 16 years, though promising a tougher and more pragmatic approach to supporting the government in Kabul and working with partners such as Pakistan. Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange dipped 0.17% to $1,294.51 a troy ounce. Gold prices traded near session highs on Monday, in the wake of continued dollar weakness, following growing fears over geopolitical tensions in North Korea, after the U.S. and South Korea began military drills. Safe haven demand rose, supporting a move higher in gold prices, after the U.S. and South Korea began computer-simulated military exercises on Monday, risking a reaction from North Korean leader Kim Jong un, who may view such exercises as preparation for an invasion of the isolated nation. Pyongyang warned on Sunday that the annual U.S.-South Korea military exercises are “reckless behavior driving the situation into the uncontrollable phase of a nuclear war.” The rise in geopolitical tensions in the Korean Peninsula comes amid turmoil in Washington, as investors continued to doubt whether the recent political controversies engulfing President Donald Trump will delay the introduction of his pro-growth economic agenda. Gold’s move higher, however, could come under pressure later this week should speeches by central bankers Janet Yellen or Mario Draghi include hawkish undertones. AHEAD OF THE COMING WEEK SIGNIFICANT EVENTS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE MARKETS. Monday, August 28 Financial markets in the UK are to remain closed for a holiday. Tuesday, August 29 Canada is to release data on raw materials price inflation. The U.S. is to report on consumer confidence. Wednesday, August 30 Australia is to release data on building approvals and completed construction work. Germany is to release preliminary inflation data. The UK is to produce data on net private lending. The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report as well as revised data on second quarter growth. Thursday, August 31 China is to release survey data on activity in the manufacturing and services sectors.
  • 12. New Zealand is to publish a report on business confidence. Australia is to produce data on private capital spending. The euro zone is to release its preliminary inflation estimate while Germany is to report on retail sales. Canada is to release monthly data on GDP growth. The U.S. is to put out a string of data, including reports on jobless claims, personal income and spending and pending home sales. Friday, September 1 China is to publish its Caixin manufacturing PMI. The UK is to release data on manufacturing activity. The U.S. is to round up the week with the non-farm payrolls report for August and the Institute for Supply Management is to publish its manufacturing index. ENERGY Crude oil prices were mixed in Asia on Monday in the aftermath as the U.S. benchmark was hit by initial weaker demand expectations after the massive hit taken to U.S. Gulf Coast output and refineries from Hurricane Harvey and follow-on flooding inland in Texas. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude October contract fell 0.36% to $47.70 a barrel. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for October delivery gained 0.40% to $ 52.19 a barrel. Hurricane Harvey has knocked offline ~22% of Gulf of Mexico oil production, or nearly 380M bbl/pay out of 1.75M, and ~26% of natural gas output, or 828M cf/day out of 3.22T, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. In the refining sector, most Texas Gulf Coast refining and shipping is shut or curtailed. Exxon Mobil closed its Baytown refinery at the Houston Ship Channel - the second largest refinery in the U.S., with production capacity of 560K bbl/day - due to severe flooding. Royal Dutch Shell says its 325K bbl/day Deer Park refinery and chemical plant complex may be shut for a week, Petrobras shut its 112K bbl/day Pasadena plant, and Phillips 66 shut its 247K bbl/day Sweeny refinery. All Corpus Christi refineries already were closed, so the Houston plant closures compound worries about fuel shortages that could develop as rain continues; long-term refinery outages could cause fuel shortages and sharply higher gasoline prices around the U.S. Houston also is the starting point of the massive Colonial Pipeline that takes gasoline, diesel and jet fuel as far north as New York, but operations had not been affected as of this afternoon; Shell is one of Colonial's partners. Last week, oil prices ended higher on Friday, as Hurricane Harvey threatened to disrupt production and refinery activity along the Gulf Coast. Crude oil prices were poised to gain in Asia on Monday in the aftermath of the massive hit taken to U.S. Gulf Coast output from Hurricane Harvey and follow-on flooding inland in Texas. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude October contract was last quoted up 0.10% to to $ 47.92 a barrel. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for October delivery was last quoted at $ 51.98 a barrel. Hurricane Harvey has knocked offline ~22% of Gulf of Mexico oil production, or nearly 380M bbl/pay
  • 13. out of 1.75M, and ~26% of natural gas output, or 828M cf/day out of 3.22T, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. In the refining sector, most Texas Gulf Coast refining and shipping is shut or curtailed. Exxon Mobil closed its Baytown refinery at the Houston Ship Channel - the second largest refinery in the U.S., with production capacity of 560K bbl/day - due to severe flooding Royal Dutch Shell says its 325K bbl/day Deer Park refinery and chemical plant complex may be shut for a week, Petrobras shut its 112K bbl/day Pasadena plant, and Phillips 66 shut its 247K bbl/day Sweeny refinery. Oil prices ended higher on Friday, as Hurricane Harvey threatened to disrupt production and refinery activity along the Gulf Coast. About 25% of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production was offline due to storm activity, the U.S. Department of the Interior's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said on Saturday. That equates to approximately 428,568 barrels of oil per day out of the roughly 1.75 million bpd pumped from the Gulf. Around 112 platforms have been evacuated in the Gulf so far as a result of Harvey, about 15% of those in the region. Half of the drilling rigs in the Gulf have also been evacuated, BSEE said. Prices received additional support after an update from oilfield services firm Baker Hughes showed its weekly count of oil rigs operating in the U.S. fell for the second time in row, by four rigs to a total of 759. The weekly rig count is an important barometer for the drilling industry and serves as a proxy for oil production and oil services demand. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude October contract tacked on 44 cents, or around 0.9%, to end at $ 47.87 a barrel by close of trade. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for October delivery advanced 37 cents, or about 0.7%, to settle at $52.41 a barrel. The rise in oil prices on Friday failed to offset losses sustained earlier in the week, as crude futures slipped to their fourth-straight weekly loss. New York-traded crude ended the week down 64 cents, or nearly 1.3%, while the global Brent benchmark shed 31 cents, or roughly 0.6%. Oil prices have been under pressure in recent weeks as concern over rising U.S. shale output canceled out production cuts by OPEC and non-OPEC members. Oil prices rose on Friday as the U.S. petroleum industry prepared for potential output disruptions as Hurricane Harvey headed for the heart of the nation's oil industry in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm has rapidly intensified since Thursday, spinning into potentially the biggest hurricane to hit the U.S. mainland in 12 years and taking aim between Houston and Corpus Christi on the coast of Texas. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $ 47.74 a barrel at 0320 GMT, up 31 cents, or 0.7 percent, from their last settlement. International Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $52.39 per barrel, up 35 cents, or 0.7 percent, from their last close. Prices rose as production in the affected area shut down in preparation for the hurricane, and on expectations that closures could last if the storm causes extensive damage. "Damage and flooding to refineries and shale fields, disrupted production in the Gulf of Mexico and infrastructure damage are unlikely to be bearish for WTI. U.S. gasoline prices RBc1 have shot up by almost 10 percent since Wednesday to $ 1.73 per gallon, their highest level since April as refiners also shut down in preparation to the storm. Beyond the storm's potential impact on the oil industry, crude
  • 14. remains in ample supply globally despite efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to hold back production in order to prop up prices. OPEC, together with other producers including Russia, has pledged to cut output by around 1.8 million barrels per day this year and during the first quarter of 2018. Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, after U.S. government data revealed a weekly climb in domestic production to the highest level in over two years. An eighth consecutive weekly drop in U.S. crude supplies helped limit losses. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude October contract was at $48.30 a barrel by 3:10AM ET, down 11 cents, or around 0.2%. Elsewhere, Brent oil for October delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London dipped 8 cents to $ 52.49 a barrel. Oil prices ended more than 1% higher on Wednesday, as investors digested weekly supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Crude oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels, according to the EIA figures, the eighth weekly decline in a row. Gasoline stockpiles were down 1.2 million barrels for the week, while distillate stockpiles remained unchanged, according to the EIA. However, domestic crude production edged up by 26,000 barrels a day to 9.528 million last week, the highest level since July 2015. Oil prices fell on Wednesday, weighed down by concerns of oversupply as Libyan output improves and as U.S. gasoline inventories rose despite the peak summer driving season. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $51.65 per barrel at 0655 GMT, down 22 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $47.65 a barrel, down 18 cents, or 0.4 percent. Libya's Sharara oil field, the country's largest, was gradually restarting on Tuesday after a shutdown, although instability in the country means that output there could be volatile, traders said. Sharara recently reached output of 280,000 barrels per day, but closed earlier this week due to a pipeline blockade. Its production is key to Libya's oil output, which surged above 1 million bpd in late June, about four times its level last summer. rising output is a headache for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries , which together with non-OPEC producers including Russia has pledged to hold back around 1.8 million bpd of supplies between January this year and March 2018 to tighten supplies. However, OPEC has so far fallen short of its pledge, in part due to Libya's strong output. The OPEC-member has been exempt from cuts. towards oil remains bearish amid oversupply fears and the possible threat of OPEC's supply cut deal falling apart. Oil prices fell early on Wednesday, squeezed between concerns of oversupply, sparked by rising Libya output, and fears of reduced future investment in the industry. Brent crude futures, LCOc1 the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $51.61 per barrel at 0105 GMT, down 26 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $ 47.63 a barrel, down 20 cents, or 0.4 percent. Bernstein Research warned that low prices and ample supplies were resulting in low oil industry investment levels. "We see (oil and gas)...order intake activity at almost the same low level as in 2016...For now, we remind investors that contract levels appear to still be insufficient
  • 15. to drive recovery in earnings," Bernstein Research said. Oil prices inched up early on Tuesday, lifted by indications that supply is gradually tightening, especially in the United States. Brent crude futures, LCOc1 the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $ 51.78 per barrel at 0026 GMT, up 12 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $47.52 a barrel, up 15 cents. "U.S. crude oil stocks have been falling consistently in recent weeks. If the downtrend in oil inventories is maintained, then a bullish case can be made for oil, especially given the ongoing supply restrictions from OPEC and Russia," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at futures brokerage Forex.com. U.S. commercial crude inventories have fallen by almost 13 percent from their March peaks, to 466.5 million barrels. And although U.S. crude production has broken through 9.5 million barrels per day, its highest since July 2015, analysts said this growth may soon slow as U.S. energy firms are cutting the amount of rigs drilling for new oil. a major commodity exchange, said that "it looks like the growth in U.S. production is quickly running out of steam and, all else being equal, this should be good news for OPEC and the price of oil". The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries together with non-OPEC producers including Russia has pledged to hold back around 1.8 million bpd of output between January this year and March 2018 in order to tighten supplies and prop up prices. Oil prices fell nearly 2 percent on Monday, pulling back from last week's rally built on signs the global market is starting to rebalance from chronic oversupply. Brent crude futures LCOc1 lost 2 percent, or $1.07, at $51.65 a barrel as of 12:01 p.m. EDT , after surging more than 3 percent on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 fell 1.9 percent, or 90 cents, to $ 47.63 a barrel. The contract had also risen 3 percent in the previous session. "We are currently seeing some profit-taking after Friday's strong rally ahead of this week's inventory data. "Fresh uncertainty about inventories and OPEC compliance could be enough reason to sell some of the long positions." U.S. hedge funds and money managers have already started reducing bets on rising prices, with Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showing on Friday that investors had cut bullish bets on U.S. crude for a second straight week. in Europe disagree on the outlook, however, as data from the InterContinental Exchange showed speculators raised bullish Brent crude bets last week. world remains awash with oil despite a deal struck by some of the world's biggest producers to rein in output. Rising U.S. production has been a major factor keeping supply and demand from balancing. There are indications that U.S. output may soon slow, as energy companies cut rigs drilling for new oil for a second week in three, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday. Drillers cut five rigs in the week to Aug. 18, decreasing the count to 763. Commercial crude inventories have fallen almost 13 percent from their March peaks to 466.5 million barrels.
  • 16. BASE METAL’S OUTLOOK : Trading Ideas: - ALUMINIUM - ➢ Aluminium trading range for the day is 129.5-134.3. ➢ Aluminium prices dropped after LME inventories continued to rise. ➢ On-warrant stocks have gained 101,725 tonnes or 10 percent in around two weeks. ➢ Aluminium is finding support from expectations of a decline in supply as China braces for capacity shutdowns at its smelters over the winter months. NICKEL - ➢ Nickel trading range for the day is 712.3-755.9. ➢ Nickel dropped as prices took a breather despite news that lawmakers in the Philippines filed a bill to ban mining in watershed areas and halt exports of unprocessed ores. ➢ Net imports of refined nickel were 19,700 tonnes in July, the highest monthly total so far this year. ➢ Existing home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased in the month of July, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors. ZINC - ➢ Zinc trading range for the day is 191.6-202.4. ➢ Zinc dropped tracking weakness in LME prices due to profit booking after prices seen supported on the back of robust demand signs in China and falling stockpiles. ➢ Bulls will take heart from July’s refined metal imports of 68,000 tonnes, the highest monthly tally since March 2016. ➢ Concentrate imports are up 26 percent at 1.46 million tonnes this year, largely because of a close to 50 percent surge from Peru. COPPER - ➢ Copper trading range for the day is 422.6-433.4. ➢ Copper dropped as investors locked in profits from a rally seen after driven by computer-driven funds as inventories continued to fall. ➢ Weekly copper stocks in warehouses registered by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 8.2 percent to 187,444 tonnes, data showed. ➢ China’s latest trade figures on copper offered little in the way of fresh insight but rather an extension of the twin trends of lower Chinese imports of refined metal.
  • 17. BASE METAL NICKEL✍ - ( 26 - AUG - 2017 ) Nickel prices declined by 0.46 per cent to Rs 751.20 per kg in futures trade today as speculators cut down bets, driven by easing demand in the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in September fell by Rs 3.50, or 0.46 per cent, to Rs 751.20 per kg, in a business turnover of 182 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in August shed Rs 3.30, or 0.44 per cent, to Rs 747.20 per kg in 536 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by participants on the back of sluggish demand from alloy-makers in the spot market, mainly weighed on nickel prices at futures trade. LEAD✍ - ( 26 - AUG - 2017 ) Lead prices rose by 0.33 per cent to Rs 152.15 per kg in futures trade today as speculators built up positions, driven by a firming trend at the spot market on rising demand from battery makers. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in current month was up 50 paise, or 0.33 per cent, at Rs 152.15 per kg, in a business turnover of 94 lots. According to market analysts, rising demand from battery makers at spot markets helped lead futures trade higher. COPPER✍ - ( 25 - AUG - 2017 ) Copper prices were trading higher by 0.36 per cent to Rs 423.05 per kg in futures trading today as speculators raised bets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in current month spurted by Rs 1.50, or 0.36 per cent, to Rs 423.05 per kg in a business turnover of 466 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in November traded higher by Rs 1.30, or 0.30 per cent, to Rs 428.70 per kg in 10 lots. Analysts attributed the rise in copper futures trade to raising of bets by participants following a firm trend at the domestic spot markets on increased demand. ALUMINIUM✍ - ( 25 - AUG - 2017 ) Aluminium prices eased further by 0.49 per cent to Rs 133.30 per kg in futures trade today as speculators engaged in reducing their exposure amid subdued demand from consuming industries in the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in August shed 65 paise, or 0.49 per cent to trade at Rs 133.30 per kg in business turnover of 697 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in September contracts traded lower by 65 paise, or 0.48 per cent to Rs 134.10 per kg in 64 lots. Analysts said cutting down of holdings by participants on the back of tepid demand from consuming industries in the physical market mainly kept aluminium prices lower at futures trade.
  • 18. ZINC✍ - ( 25 - AUG - 2017 ) Zinc prices were up by 0.33 per cent to Rs 199.35 per kg in futures trade today as speculators built up positions, driven by uptick in demand in the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in August edged up by 65 paise, or 0.33 per cent to Rs 199.35 per kg in business turnover of 1,987 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in September contracts was trading higher by a similar margin to Rs 199.95 per kg in 62 lots. Analysts said fresh positions created by traders following upsurge in demand from consuming industries in the spot market, mainly influenced zinc prices at futures trade. ALUMINIUM✍ - ( 24 - AUG - 2017 ) Aluminium prices were trading up by 1.33 per cent to Rs 133.45 per kg in futures trade today as speculators built up fresh positions amid pick-up in demand in the spot market. Aluminium for delivery in September moved up by Rs 1.75, or 1.33 per cent, to Rs 133.45 per kg in a business turnover of 292 lots at the Multi Commodity Exchange. Similarly, the metal for delivery in August was trading higher by Rs 1.70, or 1.30 per cent, to Rs 132.75 per kg in 1,155 lots. Analysts said fresh positions created by participants due to uptick in demand from consuming industries in the spot market mainly led to the rise in aluminium prices at futures trade. LEAD✍ - ( 24 - AUG - 2017 ) Lead prices edged higher by 1 per cent to Rs 151.90 per kg in futures trade today as speculators created fresh positions supported by rising demand from battery-makers in domestic spot markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in August was up by Rs 1.50, or 1 per cent, to Rs 151.90 per kg in a business turnover of 2,181 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in September was trading higher by Rs 1.35, or 0.89 per cent, to Rs 152.95 per kg in 150 lots. Analysts attributed the rise in lead futures to fresh positions built up by participants following pick-up in demand from battery-makers at domestic spot market. ZINC✍ - ( 23 - AUG - 2017 ) Zinc surged above $3,000 a metric ton for the first time in almost a decade while aluminum approached a three-year high, adding momentum to a metals rally fueled by bets on tightening supplies and robust demand. Zinc jumped as much as 5.8 per cent to $3,132.50 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, the highest since 2007, before settling at $3,119 at 5:51 p.m. in London. Aluminum rose as much as 2.7 per cent to the highest since September 2014, while nickel, copper and lead also advanced. The rally boosted mining shares, with Freeport-McMoRan Inc. among the biggest gainers. ALUMINIUM✍ - ( 22 - AUG - 2017 ) Aluminium prices were trading up by 1.33 per cent to Rs 133.45 per kg in futures trade today as speculators built up fresh positions amid pick-up in demand in the spot market. Aluminium for delivery in
  • 19. September moved up by Rs 1.75, or 1.33 per cent, to Rs 133.45 per kg in a business turnover of 292 lots at the Multi Commodity Exchange. Similarly, the metal for delivery in August was trading higher by Rs 1.70, or 1.30 per cent, to Rs 132.75 per kg in 1,155 lots. Analysts said fresh positions created by participants due to uptick in demand from consuming industries in the spot market mainly led to the rise in aluminium prices at futures trade. LEAD✍ - ( 22 - AUG - 2017 ) Lead prices edged higher by 1 per cent to Rs 151.90 per kg in futures trade today as speculators created fresh positions supported by rising demand from battery-makers in domestic spot markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in August was up by Rs 1.50, or 1 per cent, to Rs 151.90 per kg in a business turnover of 2,181 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in September was trading higher by Rs 1.35, or 0.89 per cent, to Rs 152.95 per kg in 150 lots. Analysts attributed the rise in lead futures to fresh positions built up by participants following pick-up in demand from battery-makers at domestic spot market. ZINC✍ - ( 21 - AUG - 2017 ) Zinc surged above $3,000 a metric ton for the first time in almost a decade while aluminum approached a three-year high, adding momentum to a metals rally fueled by bets on tightening supplies and robust demand. Zinc jumped as much as 5.8 per cent to $3,132.50 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, the highest since 2007, before settling at $3,119 at 5:51 p.m. in London. Aluminum rose as much as 2.7 per cent to the highest since September 2014, while nickel, copper and lead also advanced. The rally boosted mining shares, with Freeport-McMoRan Inc. among the biggest gainers. ALUMINIUM✍ - ( 21 - AUG - 2017 ) Aluminium prices were higher by 2.16 per cent to Rs 132.40 per kg in futures trade today as speculators built up fresh positions, driven by pick up in demand at the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in September went up by Rs 2.80, or 2.16 per cent to Rs 132.40 per kg in business turnover of 492 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in August was trading higher by Rs 2.75, or 2.13 per cent to Rs 131.70 per kg in 986 lots. Analysts said fresh positions created by participants on the back of rise in demand from consuming industries in the spot market, mainly attributed the rise in aluminium prices at futures trade. NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES OF NCDEX MARKET - REFINED SOYA OIL✍ - ( 26 - AUG - 2017 ) Extending its rising streak for the second day, refined soya oil prices strengthened by another 0.49 per
  • 20. cent to Rs 672.30 per 10 kg in futures trading today as speculators engaged in building up positions,driven by rising demand in the spot market. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in October gained Rs 3.25, or 0.49 per cent to Rs 672.30 per 10 kg with an open interest of 39,910 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in September contracts was trading higher by Rs 2.65, or 0.40 per cent to Rs 663.50 per 10 kg in 47,420 lots. Analysts said expanding of positions by traders on the back of rising demand in the spot market against restricted supplies from producing belts mainly kept refined soya oil prices in positive terrain at futures trade. WHEAT✍ - ( 26 - AUG - 2017 ) Wheat prices were marginally up by 0.12 per cent to Rs 1,677 per quintal in futures trade today on speculative buying. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, wheat for delivery in October traded marginally up by Rs 2, or 0.12 per cent to Rs 1,677 per quintal with an open interest of 1,350 lots. However, wheat for delivery in September contracts held steady at Rs 1,655 per quintal in 15,700 lots. Analysts attributed the marginal rise in wheat futures to raising of bet s by speculators. CHANA✍ - ( 25 - AUG - 2017 ) Chana prices rose by 1.25 per cent to Rs 5,855 per quintal in futures trading today as traders built up fresh positions amid uptick in demand in the spot market. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in October shot up by Rs 72, or 1.25 per cent to Rs 5,855 per quintal with an open interest of 18,210 lots. Likewise, the commodity for delivery in September contracts traded higher by Rs 53, or 0.90 per cent to Rs 5,912 per quintal in 21,980 lots. Analysts attributed the rise in chana prices in futures trade to fresh positions created by participants after pick up in demand in the spot market. CRUDE PALM OIL✍ - ( 24 - AUG - 2017 ) Crude palm oil prices rose by 0.54 per cent to Rs 516.80 per 10 kg in futures trading today as speculators enlarged positions on the back of rising demand in the spot market. Moreover, a tight stocks in the market due to fall in supplies from producing belts supported the upmove. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in September went up by Rs 2.80, or 0.54 per cent to Rs 516.80 per 10 kg in business turnover of 95 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in August traded higher by Rs 2.50, or 0.48 per cent to Rs 518.50 per 10 kg in 31 lots. Marketmen said widening of positions by traders due to pick up in demand in the spot market against restricted supplies from producing belts, mainly led to rise in crude palm oil prices at futures trade. MENTHA OIL✍ - ( 24 - AUG - 2017 ) Mentha oil prices drifted lower by 1.86 per cent to Rs 1,161 per kg in futures trade today as speculators trimmed their positions, taking negative cues from spot market on fall in demand from consuming industries. Besides, ample stock positions on higher supplies from producing regions too weighed on
  • 21. mentha oil prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in August fell by Rs 22, or 1.86 per cent to Rs 1,161 per kg in business turnover of 385 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in September contracts declined by Rs 21.80, or 1.82 per cent to Rs 1,174.10 per kg in 282 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders owing to slackened demand from consuming industries in the spot market against adequate stocks position on increased supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh mainly led to the fall in mentha oil prices at futures trade. GUAR GUM✍ - ( 24 - AUG - 2017 ) Tracking a firming trend in global markets, guar gum prices flared up by Rs 67 to Rs 8,684 per quintal in futures trade today as participants widening their positions. Marketmen said raising of bets by operators, driven by a firming trend overseas and strong export demand lifted guar gum prices in futures trade here. Moreover, halt in supplies in domestic markets from producing belts enthused trading sentiments, they added. At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, guar gum to be delivered in far-month November month contracts hardened by Rs 67 or 0.78 per cent to Rs 8,684 per quintal, in an open interest of 5,185 lots. Likewise, the most-traded delivery in October month contract surged by Rs 62 or 0.73 per cent to Rs 8,558 per quintal, persisting an open interest of 44,585 lots. CASTOR SEED✍ - ( 24 - AUG - 2017 ) Castor seed prices dropped by Rs 20 to Rs 4,650 per quintal after traders liquidated holdings amid a weak trend at the physical markets. Marketmen said the fall in castor seed prices in futures trade was offloading of positions by participants amid a subdued trend at the spot markets on increased arrivals from growing belts against muted demand from consuming industries. Besides fading export demand kept pressure on castor seed prices here, they added. At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, castor seed for delivery in September contracts slipped by Rs 20 or 0.43 per cent to Rs 4,650 per quintal, having an open interest of 69,330 lots. In a similar way, the delivery for the October contract eased by Rs 19 or 0.40 per cent to Rs 4,749 per quintal, with the business turnover of 31,790 lots. CHANA✍ - ( 24 - AUG - 2017 ) Continuing its rising streak for the second day, chana prices shot up by another 1.59 per cent to Rs 5,759 per quintal in futures trade today as participants engaged in enlarging their positions, tracking a firm trend at spot market on rising demand. Besides, tight stocks position on fall in supplies from producing regions and enquiries from dal mills fuelled the uptrend. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in September month jumped up by Rs 90, or 1.59 per cent, to Rs 5,759 per quintal with an open interest of 18,690 lots. In a similar fashion, the commodity for delivery in October gained Rs 86, or 1.54 per cent, to Rs 5,668 per quintal in 14,170 lots. Analysts said expanding of positions by traders, driven by strong demand in the physical markets against tight stocks position on decline in arrivals from producing belts mainly kept chana prices higher at futures trade.
  • 22. CRUDE PALM OIL✍ - ( 23 - AUG - 2017 ) Amid pick up in domestic demand at the spot market, restricted supplies from producing belts, crude palm oil prices went up by 0.91 per cent to Rs 519 per 10 kg in futures trade today as speculators created fresh positions. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in September rose by Rs 4.70, or 0.91 per cent to Rs 519 per 10 kg in business turnover of 165 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in August contracts was trading higher by Rs 4.20, or 0.82 per cent to Rs 519 per 10 kg in 97 lots. Analysts said fresh positions built up by participants following pick up in demand in the physical markets against restricted arrivals from growing regions , mainly led to the rise in crude palm oil prices at futures trade. MENTHA OIL✍ - ( 23 - AUG - 2017 ) Mentha oil prices fell by 0.97 per cent to Rs 1,172 per kg in futures trade today as speculators trimmed their positions, taking negative cues from spot market on easing demand from industries. Besides, ample stock positions on higher supplies from producing regions too weighed on mentha oil prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in August declined by Rs 11.50, or 0.97 per cent to Rs 1,172 per kg in business turnover of 321 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in September contracts shed Rs 11.30, or 0.94 per cent to Rs 1,184.50 per kg in 165 lots. Analysts said cutting down of positions by participants owing to slackened demand from consuming industries in the spot market against ample stock positions on higher supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh mainly led to the fall in mentha oil prices in futures trade. REFINED SOYA OIL✍ - ( 23 - AUG - 2017 ) Rising for the second day, refined soya oil prices advanced by 0.46 per cent to Rs 671.45 per 10 kg in futures trading today as speculators engaged in building up positions, taking positive cues from spot market on strong demand. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in October month rose by Rs 3.10, or 0.46 per cent, to Rs 671.45 per 10 kg with an open interest of 30,420 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in September contracts was trading higher by Rs 2.40, or 0.36 per cent, to Rs 661.50 per 10 kg in 50,200 lots. Analysts said widening of positions by traders, tracking a firm trend at spot market on rising demand against restricted arrivals from producing regions, mainly kept refined soya oil prices higher at futures trade. REFINED SOYA OIL✍ - ( 22 - AUG - 2017 ) Refined soya oil prices edged up by 0.23 per cent to Rs 667.55 per 10 kg in futures trading today as speculators created fresh positions supported by pick up in demand. Besides, tight stocks position on fall in supplies from producing regions fuelled the uptrend. Besides, tight stocks position on fall in supplies from producing regions fuelled the uptrend. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in October rose Rs 1.55, or 0.23 per cent, to Rs 667.55 per 10 kg with an open interest of 26,200 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in September edged up by 90 paise, or
  • 23. 0.14 per cent, to Rs 657.75 per 10 kg in 48,710 lots. Analysts said fresh positions created by traders following upsurge in demand in the physical market against restricted arrivals from producing regions, mainly led to the rise in refined soya oil prices at futures trade. CRUDE PALM OIL✍ - ( 22 - AUG - 2017 ) Crude palm oil prices weakened by 0.06 per cent to Rs 509.40 per 10 kg in futures market today as traders reduced exposure amid subdued demand in the spot market. Besides, ample stocks position following higher supplies from producing belts fuelled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in August shed 30 paise, or 0.06 per cent, to Rs 509.40 per 10 kg in a business turnover of 55 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in September was trading lower by 20 paise, or 0.04 per cent, to Rs 511.30 per 10 kg in 53 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by speculators owing to slackened demand in the spot market against ample stocks position mainly weighed on crude palm oil prices. MUSTARD SEED✍ - ( 22 - AUG - 2017 ) Mustard seed prices were higher by Rs 13 to Rs 3,800 per quintal in futures trade today as traders raised their bets in tune with rising demand in spot markets. According to marketmen, widening of holdings by speculators back up by strong demand in the spot markets, that influenced mustard seed prices in futures trade. At the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, mustard seed prices rose by Rs 13 or 0.34 per cent to Rs 3,800 per quintal, with the business turnover of 57,120 open lots. Likewise, the delivery for the October contract rose by a similar margin to trade at Rs 3,843 per quintal, open interest stood at 11,280 lots. GUAR GUM✍ - ( 21 - AUG - 2017 ) Guar gum prices soared by Rs 188 to Rs 8,365 per quintal in futures trade today following widening of holdings by operators, due to upbeat cues in the spot and overseas. Market players said the rise in guar gum prices in futures trade was mostly supported by a firm trend at the spot markets, sparked by robust spot and overseas demand amid halt in arrivals from producing belts. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, guar gum for delivery in October flared up by Rs 188, or 2.30 per cent, to Rs 8,365 per quintal, having an open interest of 43,625 lots. The delivery for the November too spurted by Rs 182, or 2.19 per cent, to Rs 8,485 per quintal, with an open interest of 4,075 lots. CRUDE PALM OIL✍ - ( 21 - AUG - 2017 ) Crude palm oil prices drifted lower by 0.66 per cent to Rs 494.70 per 10 kg in futures trade today as traders booked profits amid easing demand at the spot market. Besides, sufficient stocks position following higher supplies from the producing belts too fuelled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in August declined by Rs 3.30, or 0.66 per cent to Rs 494.70 per 10 kg in business turnover of 107 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in September contracts was trading
  • 24. lower by Rs 3.20, or 0.64 per cent to Rs 496.40 per 10 kg in 82 lots. Analysts said besides profit-booking by speculators at prevailing higher levels, fall in demand at the spot market against ample stocks position mainly weighed on crude palm oil prices. CHANA✍ - ( 21 - AUG - 2017 ) Chana prices fell by 1.19 per cent to Rs 5,470 per quintal in futures trade today as speculators booked profits amid fall in demand in the spot market. In futures trading at the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in September fell by Rs 66, or 1.19 per cent to Rs 5,470 per quintal with an open interest of 16,880 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in October declined by Rs 48, or 0.88 per cent to Rs 5,382 in 13,350 lots. Analysts said besides profit-booking by participants at prevailing higher levels, easing demand at the spot market against ample stocks position mainly weighed on chana prices at futures trade.
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