The document discusses how social TV was not anticipated in 1995 forecasts of the future of television. It provides reasons why social TV was a blind spot, including that the major innovation came from outside the TV industry through well-funded internet startups that combined people's social needs, money, and new ways of integrating data on the internet. The rise of social networks like Facebook and Twitter has transformed television by giving audiences new ways to engage with TV content and shifting power to technology companies.

1. Social TV, Forecasting and Innovation Why didn’t we foresee the rise of social TV? Presentation for the European Creative Business Network conference “IPTV and Beyond,” Bristol, March 2011 Colin Donald Director www.futurescape.tv

2. Overview Social TV: a synthesis of TV and social networking 1. Transforming the medium of TV 2. A radical shift in power for the TV industry 3. How does social TV power manifest itself? Forecasting and Innovation 4. The future of TV as seen from 1995 5. What we didn’t foresee in 1995 – social TV 6. Why didn’t we anticipate it? 7. Implications for forecasting and innovation

3. 1. Social TV – transforming the medium of television

4. The social TV revolution Social TV – the biggest change in television since it was invented Qualitatively different from improvements to TV: colour, satellite, HD, 3D – all forms of better TV Audiences engaging with television via second screens (eg laptops) and connected TV systems Transforms medium and industry Gives social networks significant commercial roles in the TV business Why did we not foresee this major development?

5. What is social TV? Enabling technologies + viewer behaviour have significant business impact on TV industry People talk 24/7 about television on Facebook and Twitter Discuss, criticise, recommend and share it

7. Broadcasters embrace it BBC using on-air Twitter hashtags so people will discuss its shows Have I Got News For You

9. Broadcasters embrace it The official Oscars hashtag Host James Franco actually tweeting during the live show

12. Connected TVs enable social TV New connected TV sets and services are integrating social activity Twitter in a Sony Google TV

14. Social TV in EPGs Social functionality integrated into set-top box middleware NDS prototype EPG lets you share your viewing via Facebook within EPG

16. Social TV and online TV Similar integration with broadcasters’ online video players BBC iPlayer using Facebook and Twitter for viewers to recommend shows

19. Social TV via pay-TV platforms Social TV increasingly available via cable, satellite and IPTV Facebook integration from American IPTV operator Verizon FiOS

21. Social TV via consoles Social networking through game consoles No shortage of ways viewers can participate in new era of social TV

23. How big is social TV? Facebook and Twitter user numbers comparable to biggest TV audiences Two-screen usage widespread

24. Claims 500m users globally – July 2010 USA: 150m+ (30% of 500m) Compared to 2011 Super Bowl: Most-watched US TV broadcast ever 111m viewers (average home audience)

25. Claims 145m users globally (Sept 2010) Only 6% of US adult population use Twitter (Pew Internet study) 8% of US adult Internet users (Pew) Considerable potential for growth And for growing influence over television

26. Two-screen usage Nearly three-quarters of US consumers multitask while watching TV 42% are online 29% talking on mobile phones or devices 26% sending instant messages or texting Deloitte, February 2011

27. 2. Social TV – a radical shift in power for the TV industry

28. Two-screen viewing and Internet TVs give social activity considerable influence over the television industry

29. Social activity gives more power to the companies facilitating it

31. Facebook and Twitter are now major players in global television

32. Without making a single programme

33. Without broadcasting a single TV channel

35. 3. How does social TV power manifest itself?

36. Impact on Viewing Distribution Production Revenue

37. Impact on Viewing – people discussing shows can increase audience size and engagement

38. Impact on Viewing – people discussing shows can increase audience size and engagement Distribution – social networks becoming alternative distribution to cable or satellite

39. Impact on Viewing – people discussing shows can increase audience size and engagement Distribution – social networks becoming alternative distribution to cable or satellite Production – bringing the audience into the production process

40. Impact on Viewing – people discussing shows can increase audience size and engagement Distribution – social networks becoming alternative distribution to cable or satellite Production – bringing the audience into the production process Revenue – social networks enable audience pay-to-participate

41. Viewing: The Game BET launched new series of The Game, comedy-drama about football player Tapped into strong online fan base Twitter popular with African-Americans (25% of Twitter users vs 12% US pop) 600,000 Tweets during broadcast Second-most-watched show in BET’s 30-year history: 7.7m viewers

43. Distribution: movies via Facebook Warner Bros deal with Facebook to rent movies to Facebook users, March 2011 First title: The Dark Knight (no. 7 of all-time box-office grossers) Uses Facebook credits payment system Costs 30 credits ($3) for 48-hour access Successful trial – more titles added: Inception, Harry Potter

44. Production: Goa Hippy Tribe Documentary on history of hippies in Goa Social media commission by Australian broadcaster SBS, with Screen Australia Filmmaker Darius Devas set up Facebook group to contact interviewees Group discussion gave him feedback Short video episodes released through the Facebook group page

46. Revenue: X Factor voting X Factor in talks with Facebook Will use Facebook credits for paid voting Similar to phone voting X Factor to receive split of revenue To launch in time for autumn TV season

47. Television can benefit from social networks

48. However…

49. Facebook CTO predicts Social networks will disrupt media – just like gaming

51. Facebook CTO predicts “ We haven't seen tons of other industries as impacted as games by Facebook, and we think that the next big change is seeing the next few industries being disrupted by social platforms in the same way gaming has been.” “ It's probably going to be orientated around media or news, because they are so social. When you watch a television show with your friend, it's such an engaging social activity.” BBC interview with Facebook CTO Bret Taylor, 10 February 2011

52. Facebook and Twitter can compete for ad revenue, too

53. With socially-targeted advertising

54. Adidas World Cup video ad

55. Why did we not foresee this social TV revolution in television?

56. And what does this mean for forecasting and innovation?

57. Forecasting and Innovation

58. 4. The future of TV as seen from 1995

59. 1995 Netscape went public, sparking off the dotcom boom I was launching first Web sites for UK satellite TV channels A year when the new media future was actually taking shape

60. Why the future seen from1995? Moving house, reshelving books This one caught my eye The future of TV From 1995

61. Television at the Crossroads Authors were international design experts, working with young designers at Philips Speculative essays Concept artwork Prototype TV designs Scenario photos of homes of the future

63. Television at the Crossroads So what was the future of TV in 1995? Key essay Roadside Romance: TV Marries Computer on the Electronic Highway

64. Four accurate predictions 1. The TV is a “telecomputer” Processing power, network connectivity and videoconferencing all built into the set 2. Viewers accessing video-on-demand and networked multimedia (ie the Web) 3. Video production tools: prices fall, quality rises 4. Video production democratised People will be producer-consumers or “prosumers”

65. The TV is a “telecomputer” 2011 TV set full of silicon, particularly Google TV Internet connection will soon be standard feature for all flat screens And you can now buy a Skype videoconferencing TV from LG and Panasonic

68. VOD and networked multimedia VOD is ubiquitous “Networked multimedia” is the Web 4oD in the Channel 4 Web site

70. Cheap video tools democratise production “ Prosumers” taking on new role, as highly effective political activists in Middle East Libya: from smartphones to YouTube to broadcast TV

72. 5. What we didn’t foresee in 1995 – social TV

73. What we didn’t foresee in 1995 An Internet social sphere that is democratised – and also thoroughly commercialised

75. What we didn’t foresee in 1995 Massive social networking companies that affect the entire TV value chain

77. What we didn’t foresee in 1995 The emergence of social TV and its major implications for viewers and the TV industry

78. What we didn’t foresee in 1995 And that much of social TV has its roots outside the TV industry

79. 6. Why didn’t we anticipate it?

80. The blind spot Innovation coming from outside the TV industry and combining three factors: 1. People’s needs – for self-expression and socialising 2. Money – massive investment creating huge companies to meet those needs 3. Data – how the Internet enabled data to be integrated in so many novel ways

81. People’s social needs Broadcasters did appreciate social needs TV Web sites I launched had forums Viewers talked to each other and to the channel Trouble TV site: mouth icon for forums

83. People’s social needs But the main Internet social arena in 1995 was thoroughly non-commercial

85. People’s social needs But the main Internet social arena in 1995 was thoroughly non-commercial Unclear if commercial social businesses could even succeed on the Internet AOL, CompuServe just launching Web access in 1995

86. Money The major social innovation and aggregation came from outside television In successive generations of well-funded, fast-moving Internet start ups

91. Data The Internet has enabled data to be integrated in many novel ways Including connected TV systems

93. The future of social TV from 2011 In 2011, we can’t easily see the long-term impact of social media integration with TV But key elements in shaping the future of social TV remain: People’s social needs and behaviour Internet start-ups Innovation with data

94. 7. Implications for forecasting and innovation

95. How can we generalise from the experience of forecasting the future of TV?

96. Forecasting and blind spots Focused on the future of television – but not how the TV industry might be disrupted in the future Focused on linear improvement – but the future always includes non-linear disruption Linear improvements did take place – HD TV But significant discontinuous change came from outside the TV industry – rise of social networks

97. Remedies for blind spots Actively look for sources of discontinuous change and disruption Particularly external innovation – outside own sector / country / continent Engage in more cross-company / sector / country information exchange and innovation collaboration

98. The future of television For more Futurescape analysis on the future of television and social media, see our white paper “ How Connected Television Transforms the Business of TV” www.futurescape.tv

99. Colin Donald [email_address] www.futurescape.tv