In honour of Climate Week Jeremy Haggar, Head of the Agriculture, Health and Environment Department from the Natural Resources Institute at the University of Greenwich hosted an interesting lecture on 'Climate Change: a threat to coffee small-holders and our morning cup of coffee?'

1. Climate Change:
a threat to coffee small-holders and
our morning cup of coffee?
Jeremy Haggar, Natural Resource Institute, UK

2. Coffee and climate change in the news

3. Mean Temperature(°C) for the Months May-October
Lat 15N Lon 91W (Guatemala)
1.40
Deviation from average 61-90
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00 Average = 25.84 °C
-0.20
1960 1970 1980 1990 Std. Dev.= ± 0.31 °C
-0.40
-0.60
-0.80
Year
Temperature change for Atitlan, Guatemala:
Note the 1oC rise is equivalent to 150m in altitude or
the difference between a normal good coffee and a gourmet coffee

4. What do coffee producers say is happening?
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Rainfall is 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Rainfall has
normal substantially
changed
Brazil Tanzania Uganda/CI Kenya Guatemala Vietnam
 The majority of coffee farmers considered that the climate has changed,
with more hot days, changes in the rainfall patterns becoming more
unpredictable with rainfall erratic and in general no rainfall.
 This had led to a decline in yields, and more pests and diseases. Many
farmers were introducing more shade to the coffee plantations, but
some were reducing the area in coffee.

5. Impact of
Hurricane Stan
in Guatemala
2005-La Niña
 20% coffee harvest lost
on Pacific slope of
Guatemala
 Lost production from
coops estimated at $4
million

6. Greater climate variability is what most
producers are currently experiencing
- national production vs rainfall in
Nicaragua
Rainfall mm / 1000s sacks of coffee
2,500
La Niña La Niña
El Niño
2,000 Production
El Niño
1,500 Rainfall
1,000 Average rain
1971-2000
500
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

7. Economic impact of production variations
on small producers in Nicaragua
2005-06 2006-07
100lb sacks green coffee 41 17.5
US$ income 3310 1424
Production cost US$ 930 771
Net income US$ 2380 653
Average farm size 2 ha of coffee
Once again farmers are falling into debt,
cannot afford to send their kids to school,
nor renovate their coffee plantations

8. The climate
change predictions
for coffee regions
- Central America
much drier
- Colombia, S
Brazil wetter
- East Africa
wetter?
- SE Asia more
seasonal

9. Brazil – Large changes in distribution of coffee
Source: Pinto, Assad

10. Expected Changes for Coffee in Brazil
Estimate of suitable area, production and financial return in state of Sao
Paulo, relative to values from 2003:
Estimate of suitable area, production and financial return in state of Minas
Gerais, relative to values from 2003

11. Projections for Kenya
CIAT 2010
 Temperature rise of 2.2 – 2.4oC by 2050
 Rainfall increase of 135 – 205 mm by 2050
Current 2050
Lower altitudinal limit masl 1000 1400
Upper altitudinal limit masl 2100 2300

12. Changes coffee suitability in Kenya
(CIAT for Sangana PPP)

13. Green increase in
suitability
Orange-red loss of
suitability for coffee

14. Current and future coffee production suitability by
altitude for Nicaragua

15. Analysis of vulnerability to climate change of small-holders
CIAT/CATIE

16. What may happen to coffee in
Central America
Likely consequences
 Elimination of low-altitude
coffee also eliminate
environmental services
from shaded coffee
 Expansion of coffee at high
altitude will compete with
forest and conservation of
water resources

17. Does coffee production
also contribute to climate
change?
Of 59g CO2 emissions per cup,
PCF-Tchibo study
44% from agrochemicals on-
farm
Methods do not contemplate
sinks e.g. shade trees
Can we unlock the carbon
stocks in shaded coffee
and applying them to the
carbon footprint of a cup of
coffee
36 - 70 t C / ha Can we make coffee carbon
neutral?

18. Coffee Carbon Footprinting
Comparison of carbon footprint vs. C sequestered in 9 years

19. 3. What are our options to adapt to
climate change?

20. More efficient use of water ?
Need to intensify reduction in
water use and management of
contamination from wet milling
Some areas may introduce
irrigation but in others water for
irrigation will become limiting

21. Developing more resilient production systems
 Gradual renovation of the
coffee plantation
 Developing appropriate shade
levels and types
 Building soil fertility
 Soil and water conservation
 Diversifying income
Past-future yield variation
800
lbs green coffee per
600
acre
400
200
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year

22. The benefits of shade
 Shaded coffee landscapes less
vulnerable to effects of excess
rainfall and landslides
 Introduction or increase in
shade at high altitudes
 But there are limits to what
shade can do

23. Potential of new coffee varieties
New hybrids between traditional varieties and Ethiopian landraces
(CIRAD/PROMECAFE/CATIE):
Possibly greater resistance Increased cup quality at lower
to drought altitudes/higher temperatures

24. Chemical (cup)
characteristics
of hybrids are
less sensitive to
altitude
(temperature)
than traditional
varieties
Bertrand 2006

25. www.AdapCC.org
Support to producers…
 Develop examples with pilot groups to reinforce their capacity
to confront the impacts of climate change
 Improve their access to technical and financial mechanisms
Expected Results…
 Detailed information about the climate impacts and risks to
coffee production
 Joint vision of the measures to confront risks
 Methods to identify adaptation strategies
 Options for long term financial security
 Network of institutions and producers to exchange
experiences

26. Other industry initiatives to combat climate
change
 PPP GIZ, Neumann Climate friendly standards
Coffee Group, Tchibo etc Rainforest Alliance and 4C
 Invest in adaptation climate modules
capacity in Guatemala,
Brazil, Tanzania and  Develop climate adaptation
Vietnam and mitigation plans
 Reduce GHG emissions
 Coffee Under Pressure
 Sustainable production
Green Mountain Coffee practices for resilience
Roasters, CRS, CIAT
 Preparedness for natural
 Model of impacts and disasters
diversification options
 Socioeconomic livelihoods
and institutional adaptation
capacity

27. And what for our 3 coffees?
Guatemala Direct trade
 Produced by Mam ethnic group in Hueheutenango
 Union Coffee roasters – one of UK speciality coffee companies
 Very high altitude production may even expand with climate
change

28. And what for our 3 coffees?
Kenyan Fairtrade
 African countries continue to
loose coffee producers
 Considerable need to invest in
production and organization for
better market access – so
Fairtrade is critical
 With climate change highest
altitude prooducers will survive
but lower altitude leave
production
 Buyers say Kenyan coffee is
loosing it’s distinctive
blackcurrant flavour – so the
coffee may not be the same

29. And what for our 3 coffees?
Brazilian Naturals
 Vast majority of coffee beans
processed via dry method
 Coffee is produced under sun
without shade trees highly
technified with mechanical
harvesting
 Major component of most Italian
style coffee blends e.g. LavAzza
 Major shift in coffee producing
areas moving south

30. And humanities capacity to adapt