The document discusses the effectiveness of climate policies, contrasting mitigation efforts with adaptation strategies, particularly for developing countries that are vulnerable to climate change. It emphasizes the need for a reliable energy system to support the development of these regions and highlights the potential for a transition to renewable energy sources. Additionally, the document calls for investment in education and entrepreneurship in energy technologies to foster innovation and secure a role for Belgium in the global energy landscape.

1. Effectiveness / adequacy climate policy Johan Albrecht

2. Mitigation versus adaptation I Victim climate change: poor regions with limited adaptive capacity Climate policy à la Kyoto; mitigation or GHG-reduction policy Why? Adaptation not profitable enough for Western companies & more interest for own savings lamp… Adaptation measures; always profitable, even without climate change Mitigation; Kyoto-countries invest in emission reductions – no impact on climate damage in developing countries before 2060/2070 – climate vulnerability remains Mitigation; Kyoto-countries use less fossil fuels -> lower world price for other users – EU subsidizes fossil fuel consumption in rest of the world – great, but for how long? IEA (WEO 2007): historical CO 2 -emissions 1900-2030; EU=China

3. Mitigation versus adaptation II Stable global temperature = aggregate of local temperature changes Stable global temperature does not exclude climate problems in vulnerable regions What is a problematic local climate change for vulnerable regions? 0.2°C, 0.4°C, 0.6°C, etc Solution; development of vulnerable regions, and development starts with a reliable and comprehensive energy system

4. Wealth after the fossil scarcity Johan Albrecht

5. Energy transition and wealth Sloterdijk; Industrial Revolution (IR) was an energy revolution – classical economists as well as Marxists reduced energy to a resource (such as water), but energy is an agent, a leveller IR: fossil energy is transformed into wealth out of fossil energy systems Energy flows in the atmosphere are ‘unlimited’ Captation of energy flows in atmosphere around 2050 or earlier; rise of global wealth, especially favouring Asia and Africa Asians want to develop an ‘inclusive’ energy system Optimism; army of Asian engineers is on the move … and Asia needs to tackle the energy challenge (see succes of young Asian energy companies such as Suzlon)

6. Transition policy? Johan Albrecht

7. What to do? Transition of energy system; long-term exercise with many unknown variables Could the best scientists in 1907 or 1957 predict the energy landscape of today? Can we now predict the energy landscape of 2057 or 2107? Technological innovations do not fall from the trees… Priority for policymakers: to create a stimulating economic environment for intelligent energy technology entrepreneurship Climate policy today; lists with established and old technologies

8. What to do? (II) ‘ People’ produce innovations – ‘Belgium in the knowledge economy of tomorrow’ requires more students to pursue technological and science-based carreers Belgium is small and should find a place in international networks on hydrogen, long range distribution grids, off-shore wind, new nuclear etc One small SME can make a difference… Without an attractive climate for energy entrepreneurship; Belgium will buy intelligent energy technologies from other countries Climate and energy policy = invest in people, invest in the future