The document discusses the need for low carbon and resilient infrastructure in Latin America given the risks of climate change in the region. It notes the potential for substantial sea level rise which could flood coastal cities and displace large portions of populations and economies. It also discusses the need to plan for more frequent and intense rainfall and drought. While the region's emissions are currently modest globally, continuing on a "business as usual" path could significantly increase Latin America's carbon footprint in the future. The document advocates for sustainable infrastructure development and finance to build resilience against these climate change impacts.

1. The case for low carbon
resilient infrastructure
in the Latin America
region
Climate Finance for Sustainable Infrastructure Development
February 22, 2012
Sustainable Infrastructure Finance Summit

2. Projected sea level rise: from bad to worse
Vermeer and Rahmstorf, 2009
Projections
(w/ proxy ice sheet
dynamics) Pfeffer et al., 2008
1m
------------------------------------------------------------------ Rahmstorf, 2007
Substantial implications for coastal cities and coastal
zones in general. Contingent planning is urgent, needs
to start now.
Observations
Today
?
Source: Bindschadler, 2011

3. Projected concentration of rainfall, recurrent
flooding… and drought
Source: Vergara & Scholz, 2011

4. Anticipated coastal zone flooding: Guyana
67% of the GDP,
75% of population
70% of agriculture
will be displaced
with a 1m increase
in sea level rise

5. LAC GHG Emissions …a “business as usual” path
would increase its global
footprint.
While emissions are modest 12000 16
in a global context…
14
30
Total Emissions, million metric tons CO2e
10000
12
25
metric tons CO2e per capita
2000 8000
10
20
2005
2007 6000 8
15
6
10 4000
Total Emissions, million metric tons 4
5 CO2e
2000 metric tons CO2e per capita
2
0
World LAC World LAC World LAC
0 2005 0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Land use change Agriculture (CH4 Energy (CO2)
& forestry (CO2) & N2O)
Source: IIASA, 2011 and staff estimates

6. Dynamics of Carbon Intensity, 1990-2008
$16,000
GDP pc, PPP (constant 2005 int'l $)
$14,000
Argentina
Mexico
$12,000
Chile Venezuela
$10,000
Brazil
0 0.1Colombia 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
$8,000
Peru Ecuador
kg CO2 per $1 GDP (PPP)
$6,000
Guatemala
$4,000
Bolivia
$2,000
Source: Generated by INE/CCS with data obtained from the
Millennium Development Goals Indicators (UN) and the World
Bank, 2012.
$-

7. LAC BAU Emissions Trajectory and Various Sector
Emissions Wedges, 2010-2050
9,000.00 12
Zero land-use emissions post 2020
Transportation
8,000.00 (1.25 GtCO2e)
10
7,000.00 0.79 GtCO2e
Million Metric Tons of CO2e
per capita (RHA)
Metric Tons of CO2e per capita
Historic and BAU
6,000.00 No new FF emissions 8
post 2030 2 GtCO2e
5,000.00
2.5 GtCO2e 6
4,000.00
Zero FF emissions by 2050
3,000.00 4
2.5 GtCO2e
Zero agriculture and waste
2,000.00 emissions by 2050
2
1,000.00 Power
LAC Target 2050: 2 metric tons CO2e per capita (RHA) (1.7 GtCO2e)
0.00 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
LAC emissions (historic) left-hand axis
LAC Emissions (BAU) left-hand axis
LAC Emissions ZNDD 2020 (Left-hand Axis)
ZNDD 2020 + no new FF emissions after 2030
ZNDD 2020 + 0 FF emissions in 2050 (Left -hand Axis)
-8-

8. Low carbon, resilient infrastructure
 Reduces or eliminates carbon footprint
 Reduces resource consumption
 Reduces land degradation and optimizes recovery of degraded
lands
 Shifts economic activity to low carbon path
 Breaks with resource intensive growth model of the past
 Minimizes exposure to anticipated unidirectional climate
impacts
 Conveys resilience to weather extremes
 Strengthen ability of economic activities to surmount climate
extremes
-9-

9. A Streamlined Climate Strategy
Three “foundation” building blocks.
IDB will support efforts to:
 Adapt to the consequences of climate
destabilization
 Promote improvements in quality of life
at low-carbon expenditures
 Link knowledge (science) to decision-
making

10. IDB’s Adaptation agenda
Engage immediately in a process of ambitious investments to
address consequences of climate change in LAC, e.g. programs
 to reduce impacts of cc in water supply/quality (Colombia-
Mountain Wetlands; Mexico-Grijalva)
 to reduce vulnerability to climate impacts in coastal & marine
ecosystems (Peru-Fisheries)
 to strengthen the resilience of forest and other fragile
terrestrial biomes to climate impacts (Brazil-Mata Atlantica;
Costa Rica-Biodiversity)
 to address the impacts of climate change in agriculture

11. IDB’s Mitigation agenda-
Promote
low-carbon power generation
adoption of low carbon transport
systems
avoided deforestation, reforestation
and low carbon agricultural
practices

12. IDB’s policy (GCI-9), strategy, action plan and
dedicated resources to the issue show
commitment to climate agenda in the region.
 Engage in international funding sources for the
region leveraged by own resources
 Green Climate Fund, Fast-track, Bilateral funding,
Climate Investment Funds
 Advocate for long-term planning, domestic financing
and investment to address adaptation
 Support efforts to reduce carbon signal of regional
economies
 Expand knowledge generation and management to
link science and decision making