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Pure Energy Consultants, LLC


Field Development Plan of Texas
   Creek Oriskany Sandstone
       Client: Shell (Fm. East Resources)
               Date: 7 April 2011

     Mike Cronin             Matt Minemier
    716-479-2722             814-222-1854
  mbc5043@psu.edu          mtm5097@psu.edu

     Zach Fidurko              Naser Saleh
    716-378-5970              814-441-1599
  zmf5005@psu.edu           nbs5043@psu.edu
Introduction
• Deliverables:
  1) Reservoir Characterization
  2) Reservoir Development Options w/ Economics

• Findings:
  1) OGIP = 5.8 Bscf
  2) Economics - Gas Price ($4/Mscf)
     • Gas Storage Infeasible
     • Infill Drilling Sub-Economic
  3) Recommend Depleting Field to 500psi with Existing
  Wells.
Reservoir Characterization


                                       -OGIP = 5.8 Bscf
                                       -Swcon = 25%
                                       -Thickness = 30ft
                                       -Net Pay = 15ft
                                       -Porosity = 5%
                                       -GWC at 6200ft



Structure Map with Water Saturation:
Looking NW
History Match
History Match
                                                                1600000                                     Graham 2
                                                                1400000
• Cumulative Gas




                                                     Cumulative Production (MMscf)
                                                                1200000
  Produced vs. Time                                             1000000

                                                                               800000
                                                                                                                                           Graham 2
                                                                               600000
                                                                                                                                           Modeled
                                                                               400000

                                                                               200000

                                                                                            0
                                                                           1/22/2010             5/2/2010      8/10/2010    11/18/2010   2/26/2011
                                                                      -200000                                 Time (Days)



 • Daily Gas Produced                                              16000                                    Graham 2
                                                                   14000
   vs. Time
                                                                   12000
                           Daily Production (mscf)




                                                                   10000

                                                                                     8000
                                                                                                                                             Historical
                                                                                     6000
                                                                                                                                             Modeled
                                                                                     4000

                                                                                     2000

                                                                                        0
                                                                            1/22/2010
                                                                         -2000                  5/2/2010       8/10/2010    11/18/2010    2/26/2011
                                                                                                              Time (Days)
Development Options
1) Production to Abandonment
  -Add Wells
  -No Additional Wells


2) Gas Storage
Abandonment Strategy
For P abandonment of 500psi:

1) Addition of One Well (Two Test Locations)
                  VS
2) Produce Existing Wells Until Depleted
TW-1
Incremental Economics TW-1
                           TW- 1
                  • Gas produced 4.31
                    BCF
                  • Recovery Factor 74 %
                  • At $4 Mscf additional
                    revenue will equal
                    $1.8 million
                  • Cost to Drill Well
                    (from East AFE) $ 1.3
                    million
                  • NPV @ 10 % give
                    $-325,946
                  • ROR equals 3.3 %
                    NPV=Net Present Value
                    ROR=Rate of Return
TW-2
Incremental Economics TW-2
                           TW- 2
                 • Gas produced 4.28
                   BCF
                 • Recovery Factor 73%
                 • At $4 Mscf additional
                   revenue will equal
                   $1.68 million
                 • Cost to Drill Well
                   (from East AFE) $ 1.3
                   million
                 • NPV @ 10 % give
                   $-355,968
                 • ROR equals 3.2 %
                   NPV=Net Present Value
                   ROR=Rate of Return
Economics of Abandonment
• Plan Produce Original Three Wells to Abandonment
  Pressure (500 psi)
• Abandonment Date
• Total Gas Produced        BCF
• At $4 Mscf
   - Producing to Abandonment

   - Stopping Production @ 1000 psi for injection
Gas Storage Strategy
Np, Pressures at inject
-Burst pressure (FG work)

Working Gas: OGIP-Np = 5.8-3.9 = 1.9 Bscf

No new wells, convert existing wells to injectors

-6month injection/production cycling
Gas Storage Results
• Losing X % per cycle

• -(Storage Cost + Summer Buy Price)*Vinj
• + (Winter Sell Price)*Vprod
• -12.5% *Value of Unproduced Accessible Gas
Economics
                                             at t=0 Gas Produced vs. Injected Produced
                           6.00E+09


                           5.00E+09


                           4.00E+09
Cumulative Gas SC (ft^3)




                           3.00E+09
                                                                                                                  Production
                           2.00E+09                                                                               Injection


                           1.00E+09


                           0.00E+00
                                12/27/2014    5/10/2016    9/22/2017          2/4/2019   6/18/2020   10/31/2021
                           -1.00E+09
                                                                       Date
Economics




 Summer Price   $3.75
 Winter Price   $4.75
Economics


Cycle       Money loss               Cycle       Gas loss (ft3)          Cycle       % Gas Loss (ft3)
        1                -7.67E+06           1                1.90E+09           1            14.98537127
        2                -8.90E+06           2                2.27E+09           2            28.18611201
        3                -9.20E+06           3                2.44E+09           3            39.47369726
        4                -9.07E+06           4                2.52E+09           4            48.29953467
Conclusions
-OGIP:
-Reserves:

-Abandonment Economics

-Gas Storage Economics
Questions
Support Slides
Delciotto 2 History Match
                       1600000                                            Delciotto 2
                       1400000




               Cumulative Production (MMscf)
                       1200000

                       1000000

                                      800000
                                                                                                          Historical
                                      600000
                                                                                                          CMG
                                      400000

                                      200000

                                                   0
                                  1/22/2010                   5/2/2010      8/10/2010     11/18/2010    2/26/2011
                             -200000
                                                                           Time (Days)


                                          14000                          Delciotto 2
                                          12000

                                          10000
  Daily Production (mscf)




                                               8000
                                                                                                            Del 2 Hist
                                               6000
                                                                                                            CMG
                                               4000

                                               2000

                                                   0
                                                  1/22/2010   5/2/2010       8/10/2010     11/18/2010    2/26/2011
                                               -2000                        Time (Days)
Delciotto 1 History Match
                                             250000                    Delciotto 1
                                             200000




             Cumulative Production (MMscf)
                                             150000


                                             100000                                                      CMG
                                                                                                         Historical
                                              50000


                                                    0
                                                1/22/2010    5/2/2010       8/10/2010    11/18/2010   2/26/2011
                                             -50000                        Time (Days)

                                             3000                       Delciotto 1
                                             2500
 Daily Production (mscf)




                                             2000

                                             1500
                                                                                                             Del 1
                                             1000
                                                                                                             CMG
                                              500

                                                0
                                               1/22/2010    5/2/2010       8/10/2010     11/18/2010   2/26/2011
                                             -500                         Time (Days)
Graham 2 History Match
1600000                          Graham 2
1400000
1200000
1000000
 800000
                                                                           Graham 2
 600000
                                                                           Modeled
 400000
 200000
        0
     1/22/2010
-200000      3/13/20105/2/20106/21/2010
                                      8/10/2010
                                              9/29/2010
                                                      11/18/2010
                                                               1/7/20112/26/2011


16000                             Graham 2
14000

12000

10000

 8000
                                                                                Historical
 6000
                                                                                Modeled
 4000

 2000

    0
   1/22/20103/13/2010 5/2/2010 6/21/20108/10/20109/29/2010
                                                         11/18/20101/7/2011 2/26/2011
-2000
Pure Energy Consultants, LLC

                    • Gas Produced
                       3.86 BCF
                    • Recovery Factor
                       67%
                    • With no
                      additional Wells
Pure Energy Consultants, LLC

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Png 492 pec final-presentation[1][1]

  • 1. Pure Energy Consultants, LLC Field Development Plan of Texas Creek Oriskany Sandstone Client: Shell (Fm. East Resources) Date: 7 April 2011 Mike Cronin Matt Minemier 716-479-2722 814-222-1854 mbc5043@psu.edu mtm5097@psu.edu Zach Fidurko Naser Saleh 716-378-5970 814-441-1599 zmf5005@psu.edu nbs5043@psu.edu
  • 2. Introduction • Deliverables: 1) Reservoir Characterization 2) Reservoir Development Options w/ Economics • Findings: 1) OGIP = 5.8 Bscf 2) Economics - Gas Price ($4/Mscf) • Gas Storage Infeasible • Infill Drilling Sub-Economic 3) Recommend Depleting Field to 500psi with Existing Wells.
  • 3. Reservoir Characterization -OGIP = 5.8 Bscf -Swcon = 25% -Thickness = 30ft -Net Pay = 15ft -Porosity = 5% -GWC at 6200ft Structure Map with Water Saturation: Looking NW
  • 5. History Match 1600000 Graham 2 1400000 • Cumulative Gas Cumulative Production (MMscf) 1200000 Produced vs. Time 1000000 800000 Graham 2 600000 Modeled 400000 200000 0 1/22/2010 5/2/2010 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 -200000 Time (Days) • Daily Gas Produced 16000 Graham 2 14000 vs. Time 12000 Daily Production (mscf) 10000 8000 Historical 6000 Modeled 4000 2000 0 1/22/2010 -2000 5/2/2010 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 Time (Days)
  • 6. Development Options 1) Production to Abandonment -Add Wells -No Additional Wells 2) Gas Storage
  • 7. Abandonment Strategy For P abandonment of 500psi: 1) Addition of One Well (Two Test Locations) VS 2) Produce Existing Wells Until Depleted
  • 9. Incremental Economics TW-1 TW- 1 • Gas produced 4.31 BCF • Recovery Factor 74 % • At $4 Mscf additional revenue will equal $1.8 million • Cost to Drill Well (from East AFE) $ 1.3 million • NPV @ 10 % give $-325,946 • ROR equals 3.3 % NPV=Net Present Value ROR=Rate of Return
  • 10. TW-2
  • 11. Incremental Economics TW-2 TW- 2 • Gas produced 4.28 BCF • Recovery Factor 73% • At $4 Mscf additional revenue will equal $1.68 million • Cost to Drill Well (from East AFE) $ 1.3 million • NPV @ 10 % give $-355,968 • ROR equals 3.2 % NPV=Net Present Value ROR=Rate of Return
  • 12. Economics of Abandonment • Plan Produce Original Three Wells to Abandonment Pressure (500 psi) • Abandonment Date • Total Gas Produced BCF • At $4 Mscf - Producing to Abandonment - Stopping Production @ 1000 psi for injection
  • 13. Gas Storage Strategy Np, Pressures at inject -Burst pressure (FG work) Working Gas: OGIP-Np = 5.8-3.9 = 1.9 Bscf No new wells, convert existing wells to injectors -6month injection/production cycling
  • 14. Gas Storage Results • Losing X % per cycle • -(Storage Cost + Summer Buy Price)*Vinj • + (Winter Sell Price)*Vprod • -12.5% *Value of Unproduced Accessible Gas
  • 15. Economics at t=0 Gas Produced vs. Injected Produced 6.00E+09 5.00E+09 4.00E+09 Cumulative Gas SC (ft^3) 3.00E+09 Production 2.00E+09 Injection 1.00E+09 0.00E+00 12/27/2014 5/10/2016 9/22/2017 2/4/2019 6/18/2020 10/31/2021 -1.00E+09 Date
  • 16. Economics Summer Price $3.75 Winter Price $4.75
  • 17. Economics Cycle Money loss Cycle Gas loss (ft3) Cycle % Gas Loss (ft3) 1 -7.67E+06 1 1.90E+09 1 14.98537127 2 -8.90E+06 2 2.27E+09 2 28.18611201 3 -9.20E+06 3 2.44E+09 3 39.47369726 4 -9.07E+06 4 2.52E+09 4 48.29953467
  • 21. Delciotto 2 History Match 1600000 Delciotto 2 1400000 Cumulative Production (MMscf) 1200000 1000000 800000 Historical 600000 CMG 400000 200000 0 1/22/2010 5/2/2010 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 -200000 Time (Days) 14000 Delciotto 2 12000 10000 Daily Production (mscf) 8000 Del 2 Hist 6000 CMG 4000 2000 0 1/22/2010 5/2/2010 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 -2000 Time (Days)
  • 22. Delciotto 1 History Match 250000 Delciotto 1 200000 Cumulative Production (MMscf) 150000 100000 CMG Historical 50000 0 1/22/2010 5/2/2010 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 -50000 Time (Days) 3000 Delciotto 1 2500 Daily Production (mscf) 2000 1500 Del 1 1000 CMG 500 0 1/22/2010 5/2/2010 8/10/2010 11/18/2010 2/26/2011 -500 Time (Days)
  • 23. Graham 2 History Match 1600000 Graham 2 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 Graham 2 600000 Modeled 400000 200000 0 1/22/2010 -200000 3/13/20105/2/20106/21/2010 8/10/2010 9/29/2010 11/18/2010 1/7/20112/26/2011 16000 Graham 2 14000 12000 10000 8000 Historical 6000 Modeled 4000 2000 0 1/22/20103/13/2010 5/2/2010 6/21/20108/10/20109/29/2010 11/18/20101/7/2011 2/26/2011 -2000
  • 24. Pure Energy Consultants, LLC • Gas Produced 3.86 BCF • Recovery Factor 67% • With no additional Wells