The document discusses climate change tipping points and their implications. It notes that Arctic sea ice in 2011 was the second lowest on record and unprecedented releases of methane from permafrost were observed in 2011. Greenhouse gas emissions also increased by the highest percentage on record in 2010. The International Energy Agency warned that the world is on the brink of irreversible climate change and will hit a point of no return in five years.
Climate change tipping points and their implications - downloadablePaul Mahony
Climate change presentation dealing with: the science; tipping points; implications (including insurance); denialism; media reporting; and essential measures.
The impression conveyed in the media of a debate among scientists is not supported by the evidence. The overwhelming majority of climate researchers most actively publishing in the field, concur that the climate is changing rapidly due to human activity.
Urgent and meaningful action is required if we are to avoid runaway climate change, leading to a planet vastly different to the one in which human civilisation has developed.
Solar Or Soy: Which is better for the planet? (A review of animal agriculture...Paul Mahony
Climate change is real
Humans are having a massive impact
Animal agriculture's issues:
- Inherent and gross inefficiency
- Scale
- Greenhouse gases and other warming agents
- Deforestation
- Water usage
- Nutrition
The document discusses the impacts of livestock on climate change through greenhouse gas emissions and land use. It outlines that livestock farming is an inherently inefficient use of resources, as only a small fraction of plant calories fed to livestock are ultimately obtained from meat production. A large portion of agricultural land and fresh water is used for livestock as well. The document notes that official greenhouse gas emissions figures omit or underestimate emissions from livestock such as methane, which has a stronger warming effect than carbon dioxide over shorter time periods. The Arctic is seeing unprecedented melting, with the Greenland ice sheet losing over 250 cubic km of ice per year. This level of melting is not accounted for in projections of sea level rise by the IPCC. If left unaddressed
This document summarizes concepts related to insolation and temperature on Earth's landscape. It discusses how temperature affects living and nonliving things, the forms of energy from the sun, and the processes by which heat is transferred within the atmosphere and oceans. These include radiation, conduction, convection, and the greenhouse effect. It also addresses global patterns in temperature, factors influencing these patterns like latitude and land-water distribution, and concerns about rising global temperatures due to increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Atmospheric aerosols are particles in the air that can affect climate in various ways. They can cool the climate by reflecting sunlight, but also impact clouds and precipitation. Aerosols have likely offset some warming from greenhouse gases in the past, but exactly how much is unclear. The presenter studies aerosols using climate models to better understand their effects on climate and how their future reduction may influence additional warming from rising carbon dioxide levels.
1. The document analyzes the role of clouds in modifying estimates of the direct radiative effect of aerosols using satellite observations from CALIPSO and CloudSat.
2. It finds that the global mean direct radiative effect is -1.9 W/m^2, agreeing with prior estimates. However, there are significant regional differences when compared to estimates from the CESM climate model.
3. These differences may be partly due to biases in the model's representation of cloud cover, as patterns in cloud fraction biases correspond to patterns in direct radiative effect biases.
Climate change tipping points and their implications - downloadablePaul Mahony
Climate change presentation dealing with: the science; tipping points; implications (including insurance); denialism; media reporting; and essential measures.
The impression conveyed in the media of a debate among scientists is not supported by the evidence. The overwhelming majority of climate researchers most actively publishing in the field, concur that the climate is changing rapidly due to human activity.
Urgent and meaningful action is required if we are to avoid runaway climate change, leading to a planet vastly different to the one in which human civilisation has developed.
Solar Or Soy: Which is better for the planet? (A review of animal agriculture...Paul Mahony
Climate change is real
Humans are having a massive impact
Animal agriculture's issues:
- Inherent and gross inefficiency
- Scale
- Greenhouse gases and other warming agents
- Deforestation
- Water usage
- Nutrition
The document discusses the impacts of livestock on climate change through greenhouse gas emissions and land use. It outlines that livestock farming is an inherently inefficient use of resources, as only a small fraction of plant calories fed to livestock are ultimately obtained from meat production. A large portion of agricultural land and fresh water is used for livestock as well. The document notes that official greenhouse gas emissions figures omit or underestimate emissions from livestock such as methane, which has a stronger warming effect than carbon dioxide over shorter time periods. The Arctic is seeing unprecedented melting, with the Greenland ice sheet losing over 250 cubic km of ice per year. This level of melting is not accounted for in projections of sea level rise by the IPCC. If left unaddressed
This document summarizes concepts related to insolation and temperature on Earth's landscape. It discusses how temperature affects living and nonliving things, the forms of energy from the sun, and the processes by which heat is transferred within the atmosphere and oceans. These include radiation, conduction, convection, and the greenhouse effect. It also addresses global patterns in temperature, factors influencing these patterns like latitude and land-water distribution, and concerns about rising global temperatures due to increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Atmospheric aerosols are particles in the air that can affect climate in various ways. They can cool the climate by reflecting sunlight, but also impact clouds and precipitation. Aerosols have likely offset some warming from greenhouse gases in the past, but exactly how much is unclear. The presenter studies aerosols using climate models to better understand their effects on climate and how their future reduction may influence additional warming from rising carbon dioxide levels.
1. The document analyzes the role of clouds in modifying estimates of the direct radiative effect of aerosols using satellite observations from CALIPSO and CloudSat.
2. It finds that the global mean direct radiative effect is -1.9 W/m^2, agreeing with prior estimates. However, there are significant regional differences when compared to estimates from the CESM climate model.
3. These differences may be partly due to biases in the model's representation of cloud cover, as patterns in cloud fraction biases correspond to patterns in direct radiative effect biases.
This presentation was given by Prof Herman Russchenberg, director of TU Delft Climate Institute, at the kick-off meeting on March 1st 2012. It describes background, aims and goals of the new institute.
This article discusses findings from the MESSENGER spacecraft revealing details about Mercury's dynamic atmosphere. The spacecraft found that Mercury's polar regions contain large amounts of water ice, fulfilling predictions. However, measurements also surprisingly showed that the laser altimeter detected very low reflectance of Mercury's surface in polar regions, indicating it is coated in a dark, absorbing material in addition to water ice. Further studies are needed to understand the nature and origin of this dark material.
2014 state of the climate carbon dioxideJulianne Cox
Carbon dioxide is the primary greenhouse gas emitted by human activities such as burning fossil fuels. Global carbon dioxide levels have increased over 40% since the Industrial Revolution, causing global warming and ocean acidification. In 2014, the average carbon dioxide concentration was 397.2 parts per million, up 1.9 ppm from 2013. Scientists have directly measured rising carbon dioxide levels at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii since 1968, showing a 25% increase over this period. The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide has accelerated from 0.6 ppm annually in the 1960s to around 2 ppm in recent years, though it varies slightly due to natural phenomena like El Niño.
- Dust can both positively and negatively impact rainfall over the Red Sea coast. Using a WRF-Chem model, the study finds dust enhances extreme rainfall events but suppresses normal rainfall.
- For normal rainfall, dust's suppressing direct effect, from weakening sea breezes due to SW cooling, is dominant. For extreme rainfall events, diverse synoptic processes are more influential than sea breezes.
- The study highlights both problems with dust for air quality but also its positive role in modulating rain, with implications for regional water management and cloud seeding practices over dusty regions.
Web science emerged as a new interdisciplinary field to study and understand the World Wide Web. It aims to:
1) Model the Web's structure as a scale-free network and understand the architectural principles that fueled its growth.
2) Discover how online human interactions are driven by social conventions and how these interactions shape emergent properties like social networking and online communities.
3) Develop approaches to harness the Web's positive potential while addressing issues like privacy, security, and intellectual property through technical and policy solutions.
Major universities have established the Web Science Research Initiative to advance this new field through research collaborations, publications, and conferences. Important insights into search algorithms, network structure, and online behavior
The document discusses greenhouse gases and their effect on the environment. It defines greenhouse gases as gases that trap heat in the atmosphere and contribute to global warming. The main greenhouse gases are water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane. The document discusses how human activities like burning fossil fuels and deforestation have greatly increased greenhouse gas levels since the Industrial Revolution. This intensified greenhouse effect has led to consequences like rising global temperatures, changes in weather patterns, and sea level rise. The document also examines potential solutions to mitigate the greenhouse effect through sectors like industry, transportation, renewable energy, and forestry.
NATIONAL SERVICE SCHEME AND NATIONAL GREEN CORPS CLIMATE EDUCATION MODULEW G Kumar
A training module to introduce College Lecturers and School Teachers to the subject of Climate Education and Live Projects that they can do in their institution and elsewhere
The document discusses the atmospheres of terrestrial planets. It begins by defining what an atmosphere is and its basic structure. It then discusses atmospheric structure and composition for Earth, Venus, and Mars. Key points are made about how planetary atmospheres developed over time based on interactions between gravity, heating from the sun, and geological processes like volcanism. The document notes that atmospheric conditions on these planets have changed dramatically since their formations.
Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish PerspectiveforestryCommission
The document discusses the impacts of climate change from a Scottish perspective. It notes that the effects of releasing fossil fuel CO2 into the atmosphere will persist for hundreds of thousands of years. Comparison of modern temperatures with paleoclimate data suggests the planet is currently at its warmest in the past one million years, constituting dangerous climate change. The impacts of climate change are already being observed globally through rising temperatures and sea levels as well as decreasing snowfall.
The year 2014 tied with 2010 as the warmest year on record for the last century. The melting of Greenland, mountain glaciers, and thermal expansion is raising sea levels four times faster than in 1900. Sea level rises of 2 to 6 feet are predicted by the end of the century. Flood highs from hurricanes Sandy and Katrina were ~ 10 feet.
The article “Treading Water” in the February 2015 "National Geographic" tells how Dutch Docklands LLC sees profit not loss from rising sea levels. They are building floating homes in Miami, FL. A floating classroom could assure ASPEC’s long-term future. It would provide a place to meet in the event of flooding by the 10-foot ocean surges that accompany hurricanes.
Dr. Carr describes how increasing greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, trap the radiation that is warming our planet. Advances in non-carbon emitting energy sources can reduce global warming. Solar PV panels are now generating electricity at $0.07/kWhr, less than the national utility average of $0.12kWhr. Rising sea levels are a better measure of global warming than atmospheric temperature, as 90% of our planet’s heat content is in our oceans.
You can learn more at www.RiskyBusiness.org.
The 2016 die-off of coral on the Great Barrier Reef was the largest ever recorded. Higher-than-normal sea temperatures caused corals to expel the algae they rely on for survival, turning the reefs white. If temperatures remain high, the corals typically die within months. This event demonstrates how climate change is negatively impacting fragile ecosystems through rising ocean temperatures.
Is change always good? Eight of the ten warmest years on record have occurred since 2001. Extreme weather conditions have become more common with climate change. Today, buildings in the USA consume approximately 65% of the nation’s electricity and account for 40% of the total energy use. Accelerated burning of fossil fuels to quench the ever growing thirst of the global energy demands is having an unprecedented impact on the environment while contributing to higher energy costs and reduced reserves. However, many opportunities exist to minimize the footprint left behind from the construction, renovation and operation of buildings. This presentation explores the evidence in support of climate change, the contributions of the US Green Building Council to help solve this problem and why this information should be important to you. Your journey along the pathway of sustainability should continue from here…now! The earth’s children are depending on you!
This document describes observations of microclimates within Ilingas Gorge in Crete. 19 locations within the gorge were studied and measurements were taken of light intensity, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The data showed variations between the left, center, and right sides of the gorge at each location, likely due to differences in shade, slope, and morphology. For example, locations near the entrance recorded higher temperatures on sunny sides compared to shaded sides. The analysis indicates distinctive microclimates exist due to the complex topography creating micro-variations in climatic conditions within the narrow gorge system.
This document discusses greenhouse gases and the greenhouse effect. It describes the major greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere, including water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. It explains that while greenhouse gases occur naturally, human activities like burning fossil fuels have substantially increased their levels since the Industrial Revolution. The document also outlines the role of greenhouse gases and water vapor in the greenhouse effect, sources of anthropogenic emissions, how long gases remain in the atmosphere, their global warming potential, and some related effects.
Global warming refers to the increase in average surface temperatures on Earth since the late 19th century due to human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that human activity such as burning fossil fuels has been the main driver of increased temperatures since the mid-20th century. If emissions continue at a high rate, global surface temperatures are projected to increase between 1.1 to 6.4°C by 2100. Increased temperatures are expected to cause sea level rise, more extreme weather events, and disruptions to ecosystems. While opinions vary on responses, many countries have agreed to limit greenhouse gas emissions through agreements like the Kyoto Protocol.
The IMF warns that human fortunes will “evaporate like water under a relentless sun” if climate change is not checked. “It’s nice for people to talk about two degrees,” says Bill Gates, a philanthropist and investor. “But we don’t even have the commitments that are going to keep us below four degrees of warming.”
Alarmist?
On the contrary - my review has changed my world view and it's not a comfortable feeling.
But you know what's funny ? I mean odd not humourous - this site only allows me to file this paper under 'science'!
The money view - between “5 and 20 per cent of global GDP every year now and forever"
Radiometric survey of aluu landfill, in rivers state, nigeriaAlexander Decker
The document summarizes a study that measured terrestrial radioactivity around the Aluu landfill in Nigeria. Measurements were taken in four directions around the landfill at intervals of 10 meters up to 100 meters, using radiation meters and GPS. The average radiation levels ranged from 0.0123 to 0.0151 mR/hr, equivalent to an average dose of 1.001 to 1.270 mSv/yr. This exceeds the recommended public dose limit of 1.0 mSv/yr. Over half of the sampling locations had radiation levels above normal background levels, indicating a potential long-term health risk from the landfill.
Stockholm environment institute (ccac november 2012)ESTHHUB
1) Implementing 16 measures to reduce short-lived climate pollutants like black carbon, methane and tropospheric ozone could reduce global warming by 0.5°C by 2050, slowing the rate of near-term warming.
2) Reducing these pollutants through measures like improved cookstoves, landfill gas recovery, and fugitive methane emission controls provides both climate and health benefits, avoiding 2.4 million premature deaths annually globally.
3) Latin America and the Caribbean would see significant benefits from reducing short-lived climate pollutants, including reduced warming of 0.5°C by 2050, avoided crop losses, and 39,000 fewer premature deaths each year
Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms evidence from paleoclimatesim8283
This paper uses climate modeling, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to investigate the impacts of rapid ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland on global climate. The modeling finds that meltwater injection leads to ocean stratification, which retains heat at depth and promotes further ice shelf melting. This causes surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, increasing Earth's energy imbalance and ocean heat uptake. The paleoclimate data from the last interglacial period provides evidence that these processes occurred when Earth was slightly warmer, resulting in rapid sea level rise and extreme storms. Modern observations also show signs that these impacts may already be underway due to human-caused climate change.
The document discusses several factors related to climate change:
1. It discusses three primary factors that influence Earth's orbit and axial tilt - eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession - and how these Milankovitch cycles impact climate over long time periods.
2. It explains the Ruddiman hypothesis, which suggests that human agricultural activities beginning around 8,000 years ago prevented the onset of a natural ice age, and industrialization in the 19th century further disrupted the climate cycle.
3. It provides examples of how human activities like fossil fuel use, deforestation, and agriculture have increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere like carbon dioxide and methane, driving unprecedented modern climate change.
This presentation was given by Prof Herman Russchenberg, director of TU Delft Climate Institute, at the kick-off meeting on March 1st 2012. It describes background, aims and goals of the new institute.
This article discusses findings from the MESSENGER spacecraft revealing details about Mercury's dynamic atmosphere. The spacecraft found that Mercury's polar regions contain large amounts of water ice, fulfilling predictions. However, measurements also surprisingly showed that the laser altimeter detected very low reflectance of Mercury's surface in polar regions, indicating it is coated in a dark, absorbing material in addition to water ice. Further studies are needed to understand the nature and origin of this dark material.
2014 state of the climate carbon dioxideJulianne Cox
Carbon dioxide is the primary greenhouse gas emitted by human activities such as burning fossil fuels. Global carbon dioxide levels have increased over 40% since the Industrial Revolution, causing global warming and ocean acidification. In 2014, the average carbon dioxide concentration was 397.2 parts per million, up 1.9 ppm from 2013. Scientists have directly measured rising carbon dioxide levels at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii since 1968, showing a 25% increase over this period. The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide has accelerated from 0.6 ppm annually in the 1960s to around 2 ppm in recent years, though it varies slightly due to natural phenomena like El Niño.
- Dust can both positively and negatively impact rainfall over the Red Sea coast. Using a WRF-Chem model, the study finds dust enhances extreme rainfall events but suppresses normal rainfall.
- For normal rainfall, dust's suppressing direct effect, from weakening sea breezes due to SW cooling, is dominant. For extreme rainfall events, diverse synoptic processes are more influential than sea breezes.
- The study highlights both problems with dust for air quality but also its positive role in modulating rain, with implications for regional water management and cloud seeding practices over dusty regions.
Web science emerged as a new interdisciplinary field to study and understand the World Wide Web. It aims to:
1) Model the Web's structure as a scale-free network and understand the architectural principles that fueled its growth.
2) Discover how online human interactions are driven by social conventions and how these interactions shape emergent properties like social networking and online communities.
3) Develop approaches to harness the Web's positive potential while addressing issues like privacy, security, and intellectual property through technical and policy solutions.
Major universities have established the Web Science Research Initiative to advance this new field through research collaborations, publications, and conferences. Important insights into search algorithms, network structure, and online behavior
The document discusses greenhouse gases and their effect on the environment. It defines greenhouse gases as gases that trap heat in the atmosphere and contribute to global warming. The main greenhouse gases are water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane. The document discusses how human activities like burning fossil fuels and deforestation have greatly increased greenhouse gas levels since the Industrial Revolution. This intensified greenhouse effect has led to consequences like rising global temperatures, changes in weather patterns, and sea level rise. The document also examines potential solutions to mitigate the greenhouse effect through sectors like industry, transportation, renewable energy, and forestry.
NATIONAL SERVICE SCHEME AND NATIONAL GREEN CORPS CLIMATE EDUCATION MODULEW G Kumar
A training module to introduce College Lecturers and School Teachers to the subject of Climate Education and Live Projects that they can do in their institution and elsewhere
The document discusses the atmospheres of terrestrial planets. It begins by defining what an atmosphere is and its basic structure. It then discusses atmospheric structure and composition for Earth, Venus, and Mars. Key points are made about how planetary atmospheres developed over time based on interactions between gravity, heating from the sun, and geological processes like volcanism. The document notes that atmospheric conditions on these planets have changed dramatically since their formations.
Climate Change and Wilderness - A Scottish PerspectiveforestryCommission
The document discusses the impacts of climate change from a Scottish perspective. It notes that the effects of releasing fossil fuel CO2 into the atmosphere will persist for hundreds of thousands of years. Comparison of modern temperatures with paleoclimate data suggests the planet is currently at its warmest in the past one million years, constituting dangerous climate change. The impacts of climate change are already being observed globally through rising temperatures and sea levels as well as decreasing snowfall.
The year 2014 tied with 2010 as the warmest year on record for the last century. The melting of Greenland, mountain glaciers, and thermal expansion is raising sea levels four times faster than in 1900. Sea level rises of 2 to 6 feet are predicted by the end of the century. Flood highs from hurricanes Sandy and Katrina were ~ 10 feet.
The article “Treading Water” in the February 2015 "National Geographic" tells how Dutch Docklands LLC sees profit not loss from rising sea levels. They are building floating homes in Miami, FL. A floating classroom could assure ASPEC’s long-term future. It would provide a place to meet in the event of flooding by the 10-foot ocean surges that accompany hurricanes.
Dr. Carr describes how increasing greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, trap the radiation that is warming our planet. Advances in non-carbon emitting energy sources can reduce global warming. Solar PV panels are now generating electricity at $0.07/kWhr, less than the national utility average of $0.12kWhr. Rising sea levels are a better measure of global warming than atmospheric temperature, as 90% of our planet’s heat content is in our oceans.
You can learn more at www.RiskyBusiness.org.
The 2016 die-off of coral on the Great Barrier Reef was the largest ever recorded. Higher-than-normal sea temperatures caused corals to expel the algae they rely on for survival, turning the reefs white. If temperatures remain high, the corals typically die within months. This event demonstrates how climate change is negatively impacting fragile ecosystems through rising ocean temperatures.
Is change always good? Eight of the ten warmest years on record have occurred since 2001. Extreme weather conditions have become more common with climate change. Today, buildings in the USA consume approximately 65% of the nation’s electricity and account for 40% of the total energy use. Accelerated burning of fossil fuels to quench the ever growing thirst of the global energy demands is having an unprecedented impact on the environment while contributing to higher energy costs and reduced reserves. However, many opportunities exist to minimize the footprint left behind from the construction, renovation and operation of buildings. This presentation explores the evidence in support of climate change, the contributions of the US Green Building Council to help solve this problem and why this information should be important to you. Your journey along the pathway of sustainability should continue from here…now! The earth’s children are depending on you!
This document describes observations of microclimates within Ilingas Gorge in Crete. 19 locations within the gorge were studied and measurements were taken of light intensity, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The data showed variations between the left, center, and right sides of the gorge at each location, likely due to differences in shade, slope, and morphology. For example, locations near the entrance recorded higher temperatures on sunny sides compared to shaded sides. The analysis indicates distinctive microclimates exist due to the complex topography creating micro-variations in climatic conditions within the narrow gorge system.
This document discusses greenhouse gases and the greenhouse effect. It describes the major greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere, including water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. It explains that while greenhouse gases occur naturally, human activities like burning fossil fuels have substantially increased their levels since the Industrial Revolution. The document also outlines the role of greenhouse gases and water vapor in the greenhouse effect, sources of anthropogenic emissions, how long gases remain in the atmosphere, their global warming potential, and some related effects.
Global warming refers to the increase in average surface temperatures on Earth since the late 19th century due to human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that human activity such as burning fossil fuels has been the main driver of increased temperatures since the mid-20th century. If emissions continue at a high rate, global surface temperatures are projected to increase between 1.1 to 6.4°C by 2100. Increased temperatures are expected to cause sea level rise, more extreme weather events, and disruptions to ecosystems. While opinions vary on responses, many countries have agreed to limit greenhouse gas emissions through agreements like the Kyoto Protocol.
The IMF warns that human fortunes will “evaporate like water under a relentless sun” if climate change is not checked. “It’s nice for people to talk about two degrees,” says Bill Gates, a philanthropist and investor. “But we don’t even have the commitments that are going to keep us below four degrees of warming.”
Alarmist?
On the contrary - my review has changed my world view and it's not a comfortable feeling.
But you know what's funny ? I mean odd not humourous - this site only allows me to file this paper under 'science'!
The money view - between “5 and 20 per cent of global GDP every year now and forever"
Radiometric survey of aluu landfill, in rivers state, nigeriaAlexander Decker
The document summarizes a study that measured terrestrial radioactivity around the Aluu landfill in Nigeria. Measurements were taken in four directions around the landfill at intervals of 10 meters up to 100 meters, using radiation meters and GPS. The average radiation levels ranged from 0.0123 to 0.0151 mR/hr, equivalent to an average dose of 1.001 to 1.270 mSv/yr. This exceeds the recommended public dose limit of 1.0 mSv/yr. Over half of the sampling locations had radiation levels above normal background levels, indicating a potential long-term health risk from the landfill.
Stockholm environment institute (ccac november 2012)ESTHHUB
1) Implementing 16 measures to reduce short-lived climate pollutants like black carbon, methane and tropospheric ozone could reduce global warming by 0.5°C by 2050, slowing the rate of near-term warming.
2) Reducing these pollutants through measures like improved cookstoves, landfill gas recovery, and fugitive methane emission controls provides both climate and health benefits, avoiding 2.4 million premature deaths annually globally.
3) Latin America and the Caribbean would see significant benefits from reducing short-lived climate pollutants, including reduced warming of 0.5°C by 2050, avoided crop losses, and 39,000 fewer premature deaths each year
Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms evidence from paleoclimatesim8283
This paper uses climate modeling, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to investigate the impacts of rapid ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland on global climate. The modeling finds that meltwater injection leads to ocean stratification, which retains heat at depth and promotes further ice shelf melting. This causes surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, increasing Earth's energy imbalance and ocean heat uptake. The paleoclimate data from the last interglacial period provides evidence that these processes occurred when Earth was slightly warmer, resulting in rapid sea level rise and extreme storms. Modern observations also show signs that these impacts may already be underway due to human-caused climate change.
The document discusses several factors related to climate change:
1. It discusses three primary factors that influence Earth's orbit and axial tilt - eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession - and how these Milankovitch cycles impact climate over long time periods.
2. It explains the Ruddiman hypothesis, which suggests that human agricultural activities beginning around 8,000 years ago prevented the onset of a natural ice age, and industrialization in the 19th century further disrupted the climate cycle.
3. It provides examples of how human activities like fossil fuel use, deforestation, and agriculture have increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere like carbon dioxide and methane, driving unprecedented modern climate change.
Proposing the use of a global probe based network of durable marine “laborato...Hofstra University
This was my final project for my sedimentary geology class. The task was to come up with an original research project that was based on a topic relevant to the environment.
1) The document discusses the discovery and growth of the ozone hole over Antarctica.
2) Research in the 1970s first detected chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere, even in very small concentrations, and subsequent research showed that CFCs were destroying ozone molecules in the stratosphere.
3) This led to the realization that human-produced chemicals could be damaging the protective ozone layer and increasing UV radiation exposure worldwide.
The document summarizes arguments in favor of conducting solar radiation management (SRM) experiments. It reviews literature on geoengineering, finding support from prominent scientific bodies for limited SRM experiments under governance frameworks. However, the UN Convention on Biological Diversity currently has a moratorium on geoengineering. The document argues this prevents critical research and that principles of addressing climate change through innovative solutions, SRM's affordability and potential impact, and including SRM as part of a portfolio of solutions justify establishing governance for controlled SRM experiments before considering deployment.
The document summarizes several dictators throughout history who abused their power:
1) Adolf Hitler ruled Germany from 1933-1945 and was responsible for the Holocaust that killed over 6 million Jews. He started World War II and committed suicide when facing defeat.
2) Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq from 1979-2003, invading neighboring countries, imprisoning and killing countless people. He was captured and executed after the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.
3) Idi Amin ruled Uganda from 1971-1979, initially welcomed but later harassed and killed ethnic minorities and as many as half a million people total. He ruined Uganda.
4) Hosni Mubarak ruled Egypt from 1981-
THE WAYS IN WHICH GEO -ENGINEERING COULD TRANSFORM THE ENVIRONMENTVARUN KESAVAN
Varun Kesavan discusses how geoengineering could be used to address the climate emergency. Specifically, solar radiation management techniques like stratospheric aerosol injection aim to reflect sunlight back into space to cool the planet. While once dismissed, major universities are now researching geoengineering due to the urgent threat of climate change. However, the large-scale effects are still uncertain and it may discourage climate action or have unintended impacts if halted. Overall, geoengineering shows potential to significantly benefit society and the environment according to studies, despite some risks, and could provide time to further address the root causes of climate change.
The document discusses middle range theory in archaeology. Middle range theory aims to connect raw archaeological data to broader conclusions about human behavior in the past. It seeks to develop testable theories that are abstract enough for generalization but grounded in empirical evidence. While archaeologists initially applied middle range theory haphazardly, it has the potential to play an important role in the future by refocusing research on theoretical issues and human behavior rather than just interpretation. However, more work needs to be done to further define middle range theory in archaeology.
This is a summary of some of the key types of geoengineering, including both SRM (Solar Radiation Managment) and CDR (Carbon Dioxide Removal).
*Note - while all of the information featured in this presentation is entirely factual, Harrison Wyld, Lulu Richmond and Bluebird are fictional entities and are part of an alternate reality initiative by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. More information at http://abc.net.au/bluebird
The document discusses the objectives and activities of the Joint Task Force (JTF) established in 2012 by the ITU, WMO, and IOC to examine using submarine telecommunication cables for ocean and climate monitoring. The JTF is exploring establishing a global network of mini-observatories along cables to measure temperatures, pressures, and other data to study climate change, ocean health, and improve tsunami warning systems. Current plans include developing a pilot project with cable industry partners and researchers. The JTF aims to address the urgent need for more ocean observations through this innovative dual-use of existing infrastructure.
This document discusses contemporary issues in reconstructing ancient climates from proxy data like tree rings. It notes that while tree ring data contains climate information, uncertainties exist in extracting climate signals due to non-climatic tree growth factors and noise in proxy records. Statistical methods are needed to combine multiple proxy records but must account for these issues to avoid overfitting. The document also explores using tree ring data to study decadal scale climate variability and whether proxies may amplify low frequency climate signals.
This document provides an overview and objectives of a research proposal on climate change and weather weapons using HAARP technology. The proposal aims to understand HAARP and how it works to modify the ionosphere and potentially weather. It summarizes that HAARP can be used to change weather patterns, air pressure, temperatures, and cause earthquakes or floods according to predictions of scientists. The proposal outlines research methodologies and questions to focus on developing defenses against potential weapons and initiating research programs. Key terms like ionosphere and plasma are also defined.
Environmental monitoring of soil radon in a very tectonic area in south west ...Anax Fotopoulos
This document summarizes a study on environmental monitoring of soil radon in a seismically active area of South West Greece. Researchers set up a radon monitoring station to investigate links between soil radon anomalies and earthquakes. Notable radon disorders were detected in 2008, 2-3 months before a magnitude 6.5 earthquake. Spectral analysis found fractal behavior and low frequency enhancement in radon levels prior to the quake. While radon changes did not correlate with environmental parameters, the anomalies may be explained by an asperity model of heterogeneous medium fracture. Further multivariate analysis of radon anomalies could strengthen understanding of earthquake precursors.
1. Ozone depletion is caused by chlorofluorocarbons and other ozone depleting substances which react with ozone in the stratosphere.
2. Increased UV radiation due to ozone depletion leads to health impacts like skin cancer and eye diseases in humans. It also harms plants, marine ecosystems, and causes global declines in amphibian populations.
3. The Montreal Protocol was enacted in 1987 to phase out ozone depleting substances, helping to prevent further ozone depletion.
Global climate change and us environmental law power point presentation fi...Sam Bleicher
This document outlines a presentation on global climate change and US environmental law. It discusses the effects of climate change like rising sea levels and more extreme weather. It then explains the causes, like increasing greenhouse gas emissions from human activities like burning fossil fuels. Major sources of emissions are identified as China, the US, and the EU. The cumulative nature of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is also summarized.
This document summarizes a chapter about impacts and extinctions from an earth science textbook. It discusses different types of objects in space like asteroids, meteoroids and comets. It explains how impacts can create airbursts or impact craters on Earth and the evidence these provide. A major focus is on the mass extinction event at the end of the Cretaceous period, proposing that it was caused by the impact of an asteroid approximately 180km wide that formed the Chicxulub crater. The sequence of events from impact to aftermath and extinction of dinosaurs is described. Risks of impacts are assessed and methods to minimize the hazard by tracking nearby objects are outlined.
Confronting Climate Change: Cooperation between States, International Regimes...inventionjournals
This document discusses climate change and its impact on environmental refugees from both a sociological and international relations perspective. It first provides background on the causes and effects of climate change, both natural and human-induced. It then discusses Ulrich Beck's theory of the risk society, which argues that modern threats like climate change are global risks that do not respect borders. One consequence of climate change discussed is environmental migration. The theory of risk society helps explain how climate change impacts are unevenly felt and some are able to escape risks while others have no choice but to migrate as environmental refugees.
This document summarizes a response to the Victorian government's review of animal welfare legislation. It makes three key points:
1) Current exemptions in legislation allow widespread cruelty to farmed animals, with over 146 million slaughtered annually compared to 7 million pets.
2) The government claims exemptions do not permit cruelty, but many routine practices like debeaking, confinement, and separating mothers and babies constitute cruelty.
3) Responsibility for farmed animals falls to the agriculture department rather than the RSPCA, so their welfare is not properly overseen. The review represents "window dressing" rather than meaningful reform.
The Low Emissions Diet: Eating for a safe climatePaul Mahony
The aim of this booklet is to highlight the greenhouse gas emissions associated with different types of food. To assist you in adopting or retaining a climate-friendly diet, we have included a sample of mouth-watering recipes complemented by charts showing the relevant carbon footprints.
Livestock production, particularly beef, has significant negative environmental impacts:
1) It is one of the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, with beef alone producing nearly double the emissions of all non-ferrous metals in Australia.
2) It consumes vast amounts of water, with beef requiring five times more water than rice to produce. The beef and dairy industries use nearly three times more water than all of Australia's towns and cities combined.
3) The sector produces around 40% more greenhouse gases than the entire global transport system and is a major source of water and land pollution worldwide.
Most climate change campaigners focus on the fossil fuel sector.
While it's essential that we move away from fossil fuels if we're to avoid an ongoing climate catastrophe, we must also move away from animal agriculture.
The concept of the electric cow aims at providing some context to livestock's greenhouse gas emissions by comparing such emissions to those of: (a) electricity generated by fossil fuels; and (b) aluminium smelting, known within the industry as "congealed electricity" due to its enormous energy requirements.
I have an interest in the world of insurance, which is a far more comprehensive and intricate industry than suggested by domestic insurers’ multi-policy discounts and the like.
In fact, commerce and industry in general would not operate without the insurance mechanism to support it.
Risk management is a related discipline, consisting of insurance (within its "risk transfer" component) and many other elements.
I also have a keen interest in climate change, and have felt for some time that its near-term and longer-term impacts are not fully appreciated by various major participants in the insurance industry. For that reason, I have developed this presentation, which I will soon expand into a more comprehensive discussion paper:
Some Quotations on Climate Change from the World of Politics and ElsewherePaul Mahony
- President Lyndon Johnson in 1965 stated that the current generation had altered the atmosphere through increasing carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. This quote is presented along with the names of subsequent US presidents.
- Barack Obama in 2006 stated that climate change is real, its effects are already occurring, and it is creating man-made natural disasters. The document questions what Obama has done about climate change.
- Former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott in 2009 called the climate change argument "absolute crap". The document argues Australia is knowledgeable about climate change.
- A quote from the 2008 Environmental Activists' Conference is presented, calling climate change a precipice and saying human actions will soon be unable to control climate trajectory. The need for action
The document summarizes a speech given by Paul Mahony of Melbourne Pig Save on October 13, 2012. It discusses the cruel treatment of pigs and sows in factory farms, including mutilations without anesthesia, confinement of pregnant sows in small stalls, and the slaughter process involving beating pigs with sledgehammers and leaving them to die in agony over six minutes without stunning. The document specifically calls out Wally's Piggery in NSW, where hidden camera footage revealed sick and dying animals, workers throwing and kicking piglets and beating sows, and infestations of flies. Protesters were bringing awareness to the public about the treatment of animals used for food like ham, bacon, and pork.
National food-plan-green-paper-submission-sep-12-ePaul Mahony
This document is a submission in response to Australia's National Food Plan addressing the need to transition to a plant-based diet. It discusses how animal agriculture significantly contributes to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions and land clearing for grazing. It also impacts water usage and biodiversity loss. Charts show Arctic sea ice melting at an accelerating rate, indicating the climate change emergency. The submission argues for educating the public on environmental benefits of a plant-based diet and pricing animal products to fully account for environmental costs.
A climate-of-opportunity-submission-paul-mahony-9-july-08Paul Mahony
The document is a submission in response to the Victorian government's climate change summit paper. It argues that the most significant contribution individuals can make is to adopt a plant-based diet to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from animal agriculture. Adopting such diets could help Australia meet its emissions reduction targets and address other environmental problems like water pollution, biodiversity loss, and land degradation. The submission calls on the government to better inform the public about the environmental benefits of dietary choices, as these could have a much larger impact than other encouraged practices around water and energy use.
Victorian climate green paper submission sep '09 vnv - 5Paul Mahony
This document is a submission in response to the Victorian State Government's Climate Change Green Paper. It makes the following key points:
1. Adopting a plant-based diet is the most significant action individuals can take to address climate change and environmental problems.
2. The government needs to inform the community of the environmental benefits of dietary choices, as the impact would be much greater than other measures promoted.
3. Pricing of animal agriculture products needs to incorporate external environmental costs not currently included to reflect their full costs.
4. A plant-based diet can easily meet nutritional needs and has far greater environmental benefits than animal-based diets.
Environmental Impacts of Animal Agriculture - Part 2Paul Mahony
This document compares the environmental impacts of beef versus plant-based foods like soy, wheat, rice and potatoes. It finds that:
1) Beef has significantly higher greenhouse gas emissions and water usage per hectare than plant-based foods, but provides less protein, energy, and other nutrients per hectare.
2) Producing beef is inherently inefficient, as it takes many kilograms of plant foods to produce one kilogram of beef.
3) Individual dietary choices can significantly impact the environment, so reducing meat consumption, especially beef, could help avoid catastrophic climate change.
Environmental Impacts of Animal Agriculture - Part 1Paul Mahony
To provide some context to the consideration of livestock’s environmental impact, this article compares it to: (a) aluminium;
and (b) coal-fired power; both of which are widely recognised as being extremely greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions intensive.
Comments on Meat & Livestock Australia's So-Called "Myth Busters"Paul Mahony
This article considers material produced by Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) in the form of what
it calls “myth busters” and “red meat green facts”.
It deals with:
- water usage;
- greenhouse gas emissions;
- other environmental impacts; and
- human health.
2. Some recent developments
Arctic sea ice Nov 2011: Summer sea ice second
lowest on record
Permafrost Dec 2011: “Astonishing”
and unprecedented
releases of methane
Global greenhouse Nov 2011: 2010 highest
gas emissions percentage increase on
record
International Energy Agency Nov 2011: The world is on the brink of
irreversible climate change . . . in five
Paul Mahony 2012
years global warming will hit a point of
no return after which it will be
Image: iStockphoto Jan Rysavy
impossible to reverse the process.
3. Presentation outline
The science, incl. amplifying feedbacks
Tipping points, incl. examples and recent
developments:
• Arctic sea ice
• Greenland ice cap
• Methane clathrates/hydrates
- Permafrost
- Ocean sediments
Implications
Denialism and media reporting
Essential Measures
Paul Mahony 2012
Conclusion
5. as infrared (long wave)
radiation.
5
NASA, Global Climate Chang, Vital Signs of the Planet, http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/ with additional text re infrared radiation
9. Our warming planet
Paul Mahony 2012
http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=123437001
9
10. Our warming planet
Paul Mahony 2012
http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=123437001
10
11. Our warming planet
Paul Mahony 2012
http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=123437001
11
12. Our warming planet
Paul Mahony 2012
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?
year_last=2012&month_last=1&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2010&year2=2010&base1=1951&base2=1980
&radius=1200&pol=reg 12
13. Our warming planet
s.
r at time
e
be cool
y
a s ma
e are
Som
Paul Mahony 2012
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?
year_last=2012&month_last=1&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2010&year2=2010&base1=1951&base2=1980
&radius=1200&pol=reg 13
14. Tipping Point Definition
A critical threshold at which a small change in
human activity can have large, long-term
consequences for the Earth’s climate system.
Paul Mahony 2012
Science Daily, “Tipping Elements in Earth’s Climate System” , 4th Feb 2008 (Accessed 4 February 2012)
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080204172224.htm; Image: iStockphoto Jan Rysavy
15. Record number of hot and cold days in Australia since 1960
Paul Mahony 2012
Source: CSIRO, “The Science of Climate Change: Questions and Answers”, Fig. 3.3, p. 8
19. Amplifying Feedbacks in Climate System
Paul Mahony 2012
CSIRO, “Climate Change: Science and Solutions for Australia” , http://www.csiro.au/resources/Climate-Change-Book.html
and http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/6558.htm 19
20. Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Annual)
Around
Around 6% p.a.
2.5% p.a.
Around
1% p.a.
Paul Mahony 2012
Borenstein, S, “Biggest jump ever in global warming gases”, The Age, 4 Nov, 2012,
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-world/biggest-jump-ever-in-global-warming-gases-20111104-1myf5.html
Chart: Katharine Hayhoe, Atmospheric Scientist, cited in Brook, B. “Depressing climate-related trends – But who gets It?”,
6 Nov 2011, http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/11/06/depressing-climate-trends/, Original http://twitpic.com/7b8v2j
20
21. Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Annual)
e
ed b y th
e jump has
ioxid nergy ng
arb on d of E at sl ow i
p pi ng c artment rts are
a t-tra US Dep ld's effo
put of he d, the or
ut o r t he w
gl o bal o nt on rec w feeble Around
The t amou f ho g.” 6% p.a. eport.
“
e s sign o armin Around r
bigg lated, a bal w 2.5% p.a. ’s 2007
ca lcu e glo IPCC
-mad rom
ma n Around a rio f
1% p.a. e
s scen
w or st ca ard o
f.
n he
e r tha t is un
High as e tha
r" incre
o nste
a "m
It is
Paul Mahony 2012
Borenstein, S, “Biggest jump ever in global warming gases”, The Age, 4 Nov, 2012,
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-world/biggest-jump-ever-in-global-warming-gases-20111104-1myf5.html
Chart: Katharine Hayhoe, Atmospheric Scientist, cited in Brook, B. “Depressing climate-related trends – But who gets It?”,
6 Nov 2011, http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/11/06/depressing-climate-trends/, Original http://twitpic.com/7b8v2j
21
22. Temperature Change
Comments from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies
• The year 2011 was the 9th warmest in the GISS analysis.
• It was cooled by a moderately strong La Nina.
• Nine of the ten warmest years have been in the 21st century.
• The only exception was 1998, which was warmed by the strongest El Nino
of the past century.
• The 5-year running mean global temperature hints at a slowdown in the
global warming rate during the past few years. However:
– La Nina phase dominant for the past three years.
– Deepest solar minimum in the period of satellite data.
Paul Mahony 2012
Hansen, J; Ruedy, R; Sato, M; Lo, K, “Global Temperature in 2011, Trends, and Prospects”, 18 January, 2012 (This
22
and previous slide), p. 1 and p. 9, http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20120119_Temperature.pdf
23. Temperature Change
Comments from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies
• The year 2011 was the 9th warmest in the GISS analysis.
e
• It was cooled by a moderately strong La Nina. to prov
likely ext few
ing is r the n
arm g ove
• Nine of the ten warmest years have been in the 21st century.
w
w n of pearin
w do ing ap
slo rm
• The only exception was 1998, which was warmed by the strongest El Nino
at the a
of the past century.pid w d
d e th e ra
co nclu mor t al, ibi
We y, w ith n, J, e
“ The 5-year e
• s or running mean global temperature hints at a slowdown in the
llu .” Hans
i global warming rate during the past few years. However:
s
year
– La Nina phase dominant for the past three years.
– Deepest solar minimum in the period of satellite data.
Paul Mahony 2012
Hansen, J; Ruedy, R; Sato, M; Lo, K, “Global Temperature in 2011, Trends, and Prospects”, 18 January, 2012 (This
23
and previous slide), p. 1 and p. 9, http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20120119_Temperature.pdf
25. GHGs, sea levels and temperature
Potentially
catastrophic
Benign
Benign
Paul Mahony 2012
Note: The shaded circles include the 10,000 years (approx.) of human civilisation.
25
Source: Hansen, J. et al “Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?”, 2008
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2008/Hansen_etal.html
26. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2
300
1750
2,000 years
Paul Mahony 2012
Source: Adapted from CSIRO, “The Science of Climate Change: Questions and Answers”,
0
Fig. 4.1, p. 10 26
27. 394 ppm as Atmospheric concentrations of CO2
at Mar 2012
380 2000
300
1750
2,000 years
Paul Mahony 2012
Source: Adapted from CSIRO, “The Science of Climate Change: Questions and Answers”,
0
Fig. 4.1, p. 10 27
30. Tipping Points
• Arctic sea ice*
• Greenland* and Antarctic ice sheets
• Glaciers
• Methane hydrates/clathrates (permafrost and ocean sediments)*
• Forest destruction, incl. Amazon
• Atlantic Thermoline Circulation (THC)
• El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
• Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM)
Paul Mahony 2012
• Sahara/Sahel and West African Monsoon (WAM)
30
* Referred to in this presentation
31. Arctic Summer Sea Minimum
Paul Mahony 2012
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio, http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/thick-melt.html
31
32. Arctic Summer Sea Minimum
Paul Mahony 2012
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio, http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/thick-melt.html
32
33. Arctic Summer Sea Ice
Paul Mahony 2012
33
National Snow and Ice Data Center, “September 2011 compared to past years ” http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2011/10/
34. Arctic Summer Sea Ice
Paul Mahony 2012
1958-1976 1993-97
34
Philippe Rekacewicz,UNEP GRID-Arendal, “Thinning of Arctic Sea Ice”, updated 22 Feb, 2012
http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/thinning-of-the-arctic-sea-ice_f4eb#
35. Arctic Summer Sea Ice
Paul Mahony 2012
From Brook, B. “Depressing climate-related trends – but who gets it?”, 6 Nov 2011
http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/11/06/depressing-climate-trends/ based on Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System
(PIOMAS, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) graphs from the Polar Science Center of the Applied Physics Laboratory at the University of
35
Washington, http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/, reported in
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/10/piomas-september-2011-volume-record-lower-still.html
36. Arctic Summer Sea Ice
e
s som r ice
u nles umme
e that rctic s
clud the A
on r s , ang
e&
c Ch
ab le to occu 0.” li mate
rea s on r ound by 2 0 2 e for C
i t is e turn a r-zero In stitut
“. . . rkabl en ea ea rch
re ma w il l b r, Res aide
lu me irecto f Adel ts it
?”
vo o k, D
y o o ge
rry Bro niversit bu t wh
f. Ba bility, U
Pro ina nds –
ta te d tre
Sus te-rela
gclima
ressin
“Dep
From
Paul Mahony 2012
From Brook, B. “Depressing climate-related trends – but who gets it?”, 6 Nov 2011
http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/11/06/depressing-climate-trends/ based on Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System
(PIOMAS, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) graphs from the Polar Science Center of the Applied Physics Laboratory at the University of
36
Washington, http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/, reported in
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/10/piomas-september-2011-volume-record-lower-still.html
37. Arctic Summer Sea Ice
David Spratt, Co-author of “Climate Code Red: the case for
emergency action” and Damien Lawson:
The danger is that an ice-free state in the Arctic summer will
kick the climate system into run-on warming and create an
aberrant new climate state many, many degrees hotter.
Paul Mahony 2012
Spratt, D and Lawson, D, “Bubbling our way to the Apocalypse”, Rolling Stone, November 2008, pp. 53-55
37
38. Arctic Summer Sea Ice
David Spratt, Co-author of “Climate Code Red: the case for
emergency action” and Damien Lawson:
The Arctic sea-ice is the first domino and it is falling fast.
Paul Mahony 2012
Spratt, D and Lawson, D, “Bubbling our way to the Apocalypse”, Rolling Stone, November 2008, pp. 53-55
38
39. Arctic Summer Sea Ice
David Spratt, Co-author of “Climate Code Red: the case for
emergency action” and Damien Lawson:
Those dominoes include the Greenland ice sheet.
Paul Mahony 2012
Spratt, D and Lawson, D, “Bubbling our way to the Apocalypse”, Rolling Stone, November 2008, pp. 53-55
39
40. Arctic Summer Sea Ice
Dr James Hansen:
“It is difficult to imagine how the Greenland ice sheet could
survive if Arctic sea ice is lost entirely in the warm season.”
Paul Mahony 2012
Quotation: Hansen, J., “Storms of my granchildren”, p. 164
Chart included in Brook, B. “Depressing climate-related trends – but who gets it?”, 6 Nov 2011,
http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/11/06/depressing-climate-trends/ . Original contained in
40
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/10/piomas-september-2011-volume-record-lower-still.html and based on Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean
Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) graphs from the Polar Science Center of the Applied Physics
Laboratory at the University of Washington, http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly
41. Greenland Ice Sheet
Paul Mahony 2012
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
“GRACE Mission measures global ice mass changes”, 7 Feb, 2012
http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=131826971 41
42. Greenland Ice Sheet
Paul Mahony 2012
42
Scale comparison of Greenland (the largest island) and Australia (the smallest continent) by Joanna Serah, 26 Oct
2011, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Australia-Greenland_Overlay.png
44. Greenland Ice Sheet
Paul Mahony 2012
44
M. Todesco, Cryospheric Processes Laboratory, City College New York City, http://cryocity.org/
45. Greenland Ice Sheet
Graphic video of Greenland torrents cascading down a moulin or crater
to the base:
"Greenland Rapids" recorded in 2009 by researchers from the
Cryospheric Processes Laboratory, City College, New York City
As of 2009, the Greenland ice sheet was losing over 250 cubic
kilometres of ice per year in a dynamic wet melting process, after
neither gaining nor losing mass at a substantial rate as recently as the
1990’s.
This dynamic melting process is not taken into account in the IPCC’s
projections of sea level rise. (Refer to subsequent slides.)
Paul Mahony 2012
Video: M. Todesco, Cryospheric Processes Laboratory, City College New York City, http://cryocity.org/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGxLs8YV9MM&feature=related
Comments on loss of ice mass: Hansen, J., “Storms of my grandchildren”, Bloomsbury, pp. 255-256 and p. 287. (An
alternative ice loss figure to the quoted figure of 250 cubic km from p. 287 had been shown on p. 255 but the correct
figure has been confirmed as 250 cubic km in emails of 15th and 16th June, 2011.) 45
46. Greenland Ice Sheet
A second video of Greenland torrents cascading down a moulin or
crater to the base. This is from The Telegraph, UK:
Scientists capture dramatic footage of Arctic glaciers melting in hours
Paul Mahony 2012
Source: “Scientists capture dramatic footage of Arctic glaciers melting in hours”, The Telegraph, 20th Feb, 2009
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/4734859/Scientists-capture-dramatic-footage-of-Arctic-glaciers-meltin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3F9FbdqGRsg&feature=related
46
47. Greenland Ice Sheet
Paul Mahony 2012
47
M. Todesco, Cryospheric Processes Laboratory, City College New York City, http://cryocity.org/
48. Greenland Ice Sheet
Paul Mahony 2012
48
M. Todesco, Cryospheric Processes Laboratory, City College New York City, http://cryocity.org/
49. Greenland Ice Sheet
Mass change 2003-2010 (Blue indicates loss of ice mass.)
Paul Mahony 2012
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology,
“GRACE Mission measures global ice mass changes”, 7 Feb, 2012
http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=131826971 49
51. Greenland Ice Sheet
ng
ind icati
fb lue, ummer
ad es o t this s
red in sh ess ligh
is colo as 20% l ecade.
esheet much e last d
nt ire ic cted as rt of th
yt he e et refle arly pa
Vir tuall ice she in the e
he id
that t than it d
1]
[201
Paul Mahony 2012
51
NOAA Climate Services, http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2011/greenland-ice-sheet-getting-darker-2
53. Greenland Ice Sheet
in the
an ges
e to ch s its
s is du pack a
area snow
ting e
o n -mel als in th
in the n e cryst
rke ni ng of the i c
Th e da nd size .
pe a ure rises
sha rat
e
temp
Paul Mahony 2012
53
NOAA Climate Services, http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2011/greenland-ice-sheet-getting-darker-2
55. Greenland Ice Sheet
Paul Mahony 2012
55
Laura Margueritte,UNEP GRID-Arendal, “Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet”,
http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/mass-balance-of-the-greenland-ice-sheet_a555
57. Average sea level
Causes:
- 40% from thermal expansion of oceans due to warming
- 35% from melting of continental glaciers and ice caps
- 25% from melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
Paul Mahony 2012
Image: CSIRO, “The Science of Climate Change: Questions and Answers”, August, 2010, Fig. 3.4, p. 9
http://www.science.org.au/reports/climatechange2010.pdf
Causes: Steffen, W, “The Critical Decade: Climate Science, risks and responses”, Climate Commission,
Fig. 8, p. 12 http://climatecommission.gov.au/topics/the-critical-decade/ 57
58. Global sea level rise
Projections to 2100:
IPCC: 0.19 m – 0.59 m (but higher values cannot be excluded)
Vermeer and Rahmstorf: nearly 2 m
Hansen: Potentially several metres (see next slide)
Impacts:
Experienced through “high sea-level events” .
A combination of sea-level rise, high tide and storm surge.
Modest rises in sea-level, e.g. 50 cm, can lead to lead to very high multiplying factors
– sometimes 100 times or more – in the frequency of occurrences of high sea-level
events
Paul Mahony 2012
Steffen, W, “The Critical Decade: Climate Science, risks and responses”, Climate Commission, Fig. 8, p. 12
http://climatecommission.gov.au/topics/the-critical-decade/
Hansen, J., “Storms of my granchildren”, pp. 255-256 and p. 287. (An alternative ice loss figure to the quoted figure of 250 cubic km from
58
p. 287 had been shown on p. 255 but the correct figure has been confirmed as 250 cubic km in emails of 15/6/11 and 16/6/11.)
59. Global sea level rise
What about IPCC’s projection of 0.19 metres – 0.59 metres?
Only allows for certain short feedback mechanisms, e.g. changes in:
• water vapour
• clouds
• sea ice
Does not allow for slow feedbacks, e.g.:
• ice sheet dynamics;
• changes in vegetation cover;
• permafrost melting; and
• carbon-cycle feedbacks.
Paul Mahony 2012
Spratt, D and Sutton, P, “Climate Code Red: The case for emergency action”, Scribe, 2008, p. 47
59
60. Global sea level rise
What about IPCC’s projection of 0.19 metres – 0.59 metres?
James Hansen:
• Current sea level increase around 3 centimetres per decade.
• If ice sheet disintegration continues to double every decade, we will be faced
with sea level rise of several meters this century.
• IPCC treats sea level change basically as a linear process. It is more realistic
that ice sheet disintegration will be non-linear, which is typical of a system that
can collapse.
Paul Mahony 2012
Hansen, J., “Storms of my granchildren”, pp. 255-256 and p. 287. (An alternative ice loss figure to the quoted figure of 250 cubic km from
60
p. 287 had been shown on p. 255 but the correct figure has been confirmed as 250 cubic km in emails of 15/6/11 and 16/6/11.)
61. Global sea level rise
Tim Flannery, Australian Climate Change Commissioner and former Australian
of the Year:
IPCC is “painfully conservative”
because it
“works by consensus and includes government representatives from the United
States, China and Saudi Arabia, all of whom must assent to every word of every
finding”.
Paul Mahony 2012
Spratt, D,“Global Warming – No more business as usual: This is an emergency!”, Environmental Activists’ Conference 2008: Climate
Emergency – No More Business as Usual, 10 October, 2008, reproduced in Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal,
http://links.org.au/node/683 (Accessed 4 February 2012) 61
63. Permafrost
Paul Mahony 2012
Connor, S, “Vast methane 'plumes' seen in Arctic ocean as sea ice retreats”, The Independent, 13 December,
2011,
63
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html
(Accessed 4 February 2012)
64. Permafrost
Paul Mahony 2012
Connor, S, “Vast methane 'plumes' seen in Arctic ocean as sea ice retreats”, The Independent, 13 December,
2011,
64
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html
(Accessed 4 February 2012)
65. Permafrost
• Dramatic and unprecedented plumes of methane . . .
have been seen bubbling to the surface of the Arctic
Ocean by scientists undertaking an extensive survey of
the region.
• The scale and volume of the methane release has
astonished the head of the Russian research team
who has been surveying the seabed of the east
Siberian Arctic Shelf off northern Russia for nearly 20
years.
• Igor Semiletov of the International Arctic Research
Centre at the University of Alaska Fairbanks . . . said
that he has never before witnessed the scale and force
has never before witnessed the scale and force
of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic
seabed.
Paul Mahony 2012
Connor, S, “Vast methane 'plumes' seen in Arctic ocean as sea ice retreats”, The Independent, 13 December,
2011,
65
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html
(Accessed 4 February 2012)
66. Permafrost
Dramatic and unprecedented
astonished
has never before witnessed the scale and force
of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic
seabed.
Paul Mahony 2012
Connor, S, “Vast methane 'plumes' seen in Arctic ocean as sea ice retreats”, The Independent, 13 December,
2011,
66
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html
(Accessed 4 February 2012)
67. Permafrost
A dramatic example of methane coming to the surface from
melting permafrost:
Hunting for methane with Katey Walter Anthony, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YegdEOSQotE&NR=1&feature=endscreen
Paul Mahony 2012
67
68. Methane Clathrates/Hydrates
Paul Mahony 2012
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) GRID-Arendal collaborating centre
68
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/world-ocean-thermohaline-circulation
69. What are insurers saying?
Climate change has nothing to do with the recent string of natural
disasters that have cost insurance companies more than $3.6 billion.
"The catastrophe events that have taken place this year, the floods in
Queensland, the fires, have nothing to do with climate change. They are
part of Australia's really long history of floods, fires, droughts.”
QBE Chair, Belinda Hutchinson, 19 April, 2011
Paul Mahony 2012
“QBE blames La Nina for disasters”, Gareth Hutchens, Sydney Morning Herald, 20/04/11,
http://www.smh.com.au/business/qbe-blames-la-nina-for-disasters-20110419-1dng1.html 69
70. On the other hand:
“It’s not the right question to ask if this storm or that storm is due to
global warming, or is it natural variability.
Nowadays, there’s always an element of both.... there is a
systematic influence on all of these weather events nowadays
because of the fact that there is [more] water vapor lurking
around in the atmosphere than there used to be say 30 years
ago.”
Dr Kevin Trenberth, US National Center Atmospheric Research
Paul Mahony 2012
Dr Kevin Trenberth, US Nat. Center Atmospheric Research, cited in Spratt, D, “Bridging the gap between science
and politics”, Climate Action Summit, 9 April, 2011
70
71. What are scientists saying?
Western European heatwave of 2003, caused 35,000 premature deaths and
€13.1 billion in losses.
This was a large, extreme weather event that could have happened without
human-caused climate change.
Human-caused climate change made the heatwave
about six times more likely than it would otherwise
have been.
Dr Myles Allen and colleagues, Oxford University
Paul Mahony 2012
Dr Myles Allen and colleagues, Oxford University, cited in “Cuts in emissions are at a premium” by Liam Phelan
lecturer in environmental studies at the University of Newcastle.
71
72. Relative likelihood of Western European heatwave of
2003 (35,000 premature deaths and €13.1 billion in
losses)
Likelihood without human-caused Likelihood with human-caused climate
climate change change
Paul Mahony 2012
Dr Myles Allen and colleagues, Oxford University, cited in “Cuts in emissions are at a premium” by Liam Phelan
lecturer in environmental studies at the University of Newcastle,
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/cuts-in-emissions-are-at-a-premium-20110124-1a2ul.html
72
73. Victorian floods (Australia), 12-14 Jan 2011
“Yarra bursts banks as floods hit Melbourne”, The Age, 14 Jan 2011
The total precipitable water in the atmosphere in Melbourne on 13 Jan
was 65.0 mm, well in excess of the previous record of 54.5 mm
20% above previous record
Paul Mahony 2012
Karoly, Prof. David, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, “The recent extreme weather in eastern Australia: A sign of climate
change or the response to La Niña?”, 23rd April, 2011 at Firbank Grammar, Brighton 73
74. What is Munich Re saying?
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Paul Mahony 2012
Nikolaus von Bomhard, CEO of Munich Re, 21 Dec, 2009,
http://www.munichre.com/en/group/focus/climate_change/strategy_and_policy/after_copenhagen/default.aspx
74
75. What is Munich Re saying?
Paul Mahony 2012
75
Source: IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4, cited in Munich Re, “Climate Change and Impacts”
76. Paul Mahony 2012
76
http://www.munichre.com/app_pages/www/@res/pdf/media_relations/press_dossiers/durban_2011/press_folder_durban_2011_en.pdf?2
77. Paul Mahony 2012
77
http://www.munichre.com/app_pages/www/@res/pdf/media_relations/press_dossiers/durban_2011/press_folder_durban_2011_en.pdf?2
78. Paul Mahony 2012
78
http://www.munichre.com/app_pages/www/@res/pdf/media_relations/press_dossiers/durban_2011/press_folder_durban_2011_en.pdf?2
79. What about others?
“Not only is it real, it's here, and its effects are giving rise to a frighteningly
new global phenomenon: the man-made natural disaster.”
Paul Mahony 2012
79
81. . . . and others?
“This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global
scale through a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of
fossil fuels.”
Paul Mahony 2012
81
82. . . . and others?
“This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global
scale through a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of
fossil fuels.”
President Lyndon Johnson, 1965
Paul Mahony 2012
President Lyndon Johnson, 1965 message to Congress, cited in The Science Show, ABC Radio National, 8
January, 2011, “Naomi Areskes – Merchants of Doubt”
82
83. Additional Points
Ice-melt water cools ocean basins. Continents continue to heat due to increasing
greenhouse gases and feedbacks. The resultant ocean-land temperature polarity
generates storms.
A 10% increase in wind speed = 33% increase in destructive capacity.
50 cm rise in sea-level = very high multiplying factors in the frequency of high
sea-level events – sometimes 100 times or more
4 degree temperature increase = a planet that cannot support more than 1 billion
people (currently 7 billion)
Stabilization [of CO2 concentrations] much below 650 ppmv CO2-e is
improbable.
That equates to + 2–3 degrees C; 13 - 37 metres sea level rise; permanent El-Nino
Paul Mahony 2012
Glikson, A, “As emissions rise, we may be heading for an ice-free planet”, The Conversation, 18 Jan 2012
Hansen, J, “Storms of my grandchildren”
Schelnhuber, H.J., cited in Spratt, D 83
Tyndall Centre, cited in Glikson, A “Dangerous Climate Change”
84. Denialism
Support for IPCC's position on human-caused climate change among
climate researchers most actively publishing in the field
Based on a
dataset of
1,372 97% - 98% The relative climate
climate expertise and scientific
researchers
and their prominence of these
publication researchers were
and citation significantly below the
data. Data
set compiled
others
from lists
that included
Ian Plimer,
Bob Carter
and Fred 2% - 3%
Singer.
Support Do not support
William R. L. Anderegg, James W. Prall, Jacob Harold, and Stephen H. Schneider, “Expert Credibility in Climate Change”,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 21 June, 2010, www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1003187107 and
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.full.pdf+html 84
85. Denialism
Support for IPCC's position on human-caused climate change among
climate researchers most actively publishing in the field
versus
Relevant media coverage
Based on a
dataset of
1,372
climate Assumed figures
97% - 98% The relative climate
researchers based on “balanced
and their expertise and scientific reporting” argument
publication prominence of these
and citation researchers were
data. Data significantly below 50% 50%
set compiled the others
from lists
that included
Ian Plimer,
Bob Carter 2% - 3%
and Fred
Singer. Support Do not support Media coverage of Media coverage of
those who support those who do not
support
William R. L. Anderegg, James W. Prall, Jacob Harold, and Stephen H. Schneider, “Expert Credibility in Climate Change”,
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 21 June, 2010, www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1003187107 and
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.full.pdf+html
85
86. Denialism
Percentage of Americans who consider climate
change to be their country's most urgent problem
99%
1%
Yes No
Paul Mahony 2012
Robert Manne, “How can climate change denialism be explained?” ABC The Drum, 9 Dec 2011,
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3722126.html, originally published in The Monthly, 8 Dec 2011,
86
http://www.themonthly.com.au/blog-how-can-climate-change-denialism-be-explained-robert-manne-4386
87. Denialism
S. Fred Singer: prominent denier and Heartland Institute “expert”
In challenging EPA (USA) re second-hand tobacco (1993):
“If we do not carefully delineate the government’s role in regulating
dangers, there is essentially no limit to how much government can
ultimately control our lives.”
In challenging the science of the ozone hole involving
regulation of CFC emissions (1989):
“And then there are those with hidden agendas of their own, not just
to save the environment, but to change our economic system. Some
of these coercive utopians are socialists, some are technology-hating
luddites, and most have a great desire to regulate on as large a scale
as possible.”
Paul Mahony 2012
Prof. Naomi Oreskes, co-author of “Merchants of Doubt” on The Science Show, ABC Radio National, 8 January, 2011
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/naomi-oreskes---merchants-of-doubt/3012690
Fred Singer’s Heartland Institute connection: 87
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Heartland_Institute/Global_warming_experts
88. Denialism
S. Fred Singer: prominent denier and Heartland Institute “expert”
In challenging EPA (USA) re second-hand tobacco (1993):
?
in C FC’s
“If we do not carefully delineate the government’s roleon regulating
dangers, there is essentially no limit to how positio
n
much government can
r’s
ultimately control our lives.” S inge
d Fred
d opte
In challengingd a science of the ozone hole involving
h a the
t if w e of CFC emissions (1989):
Wh a
regulation
“And then there are those with hidden agendas of their own, not just
to save the environment, but to change our economic system. Some
of these coercive utopians are socialists, some are technology-hating
luddites, and most have a great desire to regulate on as large a scale
as possible.”
Paul Mahony 2012
Prof. Naomi Oreskes, co-author of “Merchants of Doubt” on The Science Show, ABC Radio National, 8 January, 2011
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/naomi-oreskes---merchants-of-doubt/3012690
Fred Singer’s Heartland Institute connection: 88
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Heartland_Institute/Global_warming_experts
89. Denialism
What if we had adopted Fred Singer’s position on CFC’s?
Annual CO2-equivalent emissions prevented by 2012 (billion tonnes)
12.5 max
9.7 min
CFCs would have almost
destroyed the ozone layer by
now, and would be having the
most impact of all greenhouse
gases on global temperatures.
2.0
1987 Montreal Protocol on CFCs Kyoto Protocol assuming all countries
Paul Mahony 2012
meet their commitments
Anon, “The global warming potential of deodorants”, Australasian Science, Nov-Dec 2007, p. 39,
http://www.control.com.au/bi2007/2810Brook.pdf
89
91. Media
What about other news?
An example
Nature Geoscience reports that West Antarctica’s Pine
Island Glacier is now melting 50 percent faster than in 1994
Coverage in Australia’s newspapers:
Nil
Paul Mahony 2012
Jo Chandler, “When science is undone by fiction”, The Age, 29 June 2011
Image: NASA “GRACE Mission Measures Global Ice Mass Changes”, 91
http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=131826971
92. Denialism
Prof. Ian Plimer: author “Heaven and Earth”
Comments on the book from Prof. Ian Enting, University of Melbourne
• numerous
internal inconsistencies
• key data are unattributed
• the content of references is often
misquoted
• misrepresents the content of
IPCC reports
• misrepresents the operation of the IPCC and the authorship of IPCC
reports
• misrepresents data records
Paul Mahony 2012
• Misrepresents data from cited sources
92
Prof. Ian Enting, “Rogues or respectable? How climate change sceptics spread doubt and denial”, The Conversation, 23
June 2011,
93. Denialism
Prof. Ian Plimer: author “Heaven and Earth”
Comments on the book from Prof. Kurt Lambeck, President of the
Australian Academy of Sciences
• “Heaven and Earth” is not a work of
science. It is an opinion piece of an
author who happens to be a scientist.
• . . . the concept that hundreds of researchers are conspiring to defraud
the world’s policy-makers requires a level of conspiracy theory that not
even Dan Brown has reached.
Paul Mahony 2012
93
Prof. Kurt Lambeck, “Comments on Heaven and Earth: Global Warming: The missing science”, 7 June 2009 The
Science Show, ABC Radio National
94. Denialism
Prof. Ian Plimer: author “Heaven and Earth”
Comments on the book from Michael Ashley, Professor of
Astrophysics, University of New South Wales
• If Plimer is right, then it would rank as one
of the greatest discoveries of the century
and would almost certainly earn him a Nobel
Prize.
This is the scale of Plimer’s claim.
• The arguments that Plimer advances in the 503 pages and 2,311 footnotes . . . are
nonsense. The book is largely a collection of contrarian ideas and conspiracy
theories that are rife in the blogosphere. The writing is rambling and repetitive;
the arguments flawed and illogical.
Paul Mahony 2012
Prof. Michael Ashley, “No Science in Plimer’s primer”, 9 May 2009, The Australian 94