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The Diffusion of Clean Technologies
- 1. The diffusion of clean technologies: a review with suggestions for future diffusion analysis René Kemp, Massimiliano Volpi Paul Butler Available online 3 December 2007
- 2. Clean Technology Diffusion • Pollution Control Technologies • Cleaner manufacturing processes • Waste Management Techniques • Clean Processes not Products
- 3. • Early adopters • Early majority • Late majority • Laggards 5 Classes of Adopter • Innovators
- 5. Stylised Fact No. 1 Technology Adoption is not instantaneous
- 6. Stylised Fact No. 2 The diffusion of one innovation affects the diffusion of another innovation • Process Adaptations • New Processes • End of Pipe
- 7. Stylised Fact No. 3+4 Technology diffusion involves information transfer and has elements of innovation. Technology diffusion is not simply a matter of information transfer. EPIDEMIC Model
- 8. Stylised Fact No. 5 The more economically attractive a technology is, the quicker it will be adopted and the greater the number of companies that will adopt it. The higher the gain, the faster the diffusion as a general rule.
- 9. The converse of this is that an economically attractive technology does not automatically get adopted the moment it becomes economical to use it. Stylised Fact No. 6
- 10. TitleStylised Fact No. 7 The technology for diffusion is not constant but steadily improves. This affects technology diffusion.
- 11. Stylised Fact No. 8 Expensive and complex technologies tend to diffuse more slowly.
- 12. Stylised Fact No. 9 The population of potential adopters changes over time
- 13. Types of Models • Threshold Model • Critical Threshold = NPV • Endogenous & Exogenous nature of variables • Complementary innovations
- 14. Conclusions • Soft Innovations • Age structure of plants • Payback Periods & Sunk Costs • Regulatory Pressure
- 15. Analysis of Report Pros Cons New Methods proposed Copious reference points / Loose ConnectorsEconometric methods proposed for diffusion analysis / more rigorous References for Graphs within document do not check out Reads like a funding advertisment at times Lack of drill down reporting / ambiguous figures
- 16. Title Questions
Editor's Notes
- Pollution Control = Dephosphate methods, desulphurisation and industrial low burn burners. Also usage of emission control catalysts in pollution prevention and reverse osmosis. Cleaner manufacturing processes = Includes conserving raw materials and energy; eliminating toxic raw materials; and reducing the quantity and toxicity of all emissions and wastes before they leave a process. Waste management techniques = Lean management techniques originating with Toyota. Targets include Overproduction, Waiting, Transportation, Inappropriate processing and unnecessary inventory. Also unnecessary motions and Cost of defects.
- Rogers E. Diffusion of Innovations. 4 th Ed. New York: Free Press; 1983. Adoption of a clean technology by a population is not instantaneous. Even advantageous innovations tend to diffuse in a gradual manner. The propensity to adopt will be dependent on costs and benefits from adoption. Size, organisation, products, type of manufacturing process, management, relation with external parties and financial situation all have a bearing.
- This S or sigmoid graph is analagous to life cycle curves with initial growth, followed by replication & improvement then stabilisation and finally dying off. Used in marketing and also project management cycles.
- A stylised fact is an o bservations repeated in so many contexts that they are commonly accepted as empirical truths and set boundaries to which all new hypotheses must conform. Case Study: http://jonathanischwartz.wordpress.com/2009/03/06/technology-adoption-2-of-4/ Adoption is a non-economic phenomena, no money is spent, only time – yet it has extreme financial consequences. Let me give you an example. I was with a big customer of ours last year, and reading through my account briefing before the meeting, I knew we were doing well. An analysis of their download activity showed they were heavy users of Solaris and OpenSolaris, and they had a large internal community of MySQL users, as well. In the meeting, their CIO said “we love where Solaris is headed.” I then asked if we could help with MySQL, and he said… “I banned it.” Not exactly a buying signal. I was stunned. I asked, “why?” He responded, “Oracle is our global standard, and with 20,000 developers, people need to follow the rules.” I said we had a very good relationship with Oracle, and started talking about how fast Oracle runs against our new Open Storage products. Until he interrupted me, “…but my ban failed.” What? “We hire lots of people out of college every year, and they all come in knowing MySQL. All my prototypes are written to MySQL, and now I have a big base of MySQL apps I don’t want to port, and a bunch of MySQL programmers I don’t want to retrain. So I’d like a commercial relationship.” In a nutshell, that’s adoption in action. Change in IT isn’t just a top down phenomenon – it’s more often bottom up*.
- Explain each of the diffusion methods and impact on the manufacturing process.
- A stylised fact is an o bservations repeated in so many contexts that they are commonly accepted as empirical truths and set boundaries to which all new hypotheses must conform.
- For Stylised Fact 6 mention the case of thermal insulation for new homes, where education & building practices came out as more important than energy prices or heating days.
- Refers to the technologies which were studied.
- Refers to the technologies which were studied.
- Discuss the opinion of the paper in its circular reasoning and expansion of points which are merely the reverse of already stated viewpoints. Circular reasoning is a formal logical fallacy in which the proposition to be proved is assumed implicitly or explicitly in one of the premises. For example: " Only an untrustworthy person would run for office. The fact that politicians are untrustworthy is proof of this. " Such an argument is fallacious, because it relies upon its own proposition — "politicians are untrustworthy" — in order to support its central premise. Essentially, the argument assumes that its central point is already proven, and uses this in support of itself. Circular reasoning is different from the informal logical fallacy "begging the question", as it is fallacious due to a flawed logical structure and not the individual falsity of an unstated hidden co-premise as begging the question is.