CIPR’s Public Affairs Group have published a Horizon Scan document, exploring trends and topics likely to impact the future of working in public affairs.

1. n Virtual reality
surgeries
n Increase in
digital fraud
n Regulatory tax on
tech firms/platforms
(will it empower
Government)
n Disinformation –
steps to tackle it?
n 5G
n Gender gap
importance
n Decline in trust in
politics and business
n Increase in
individualism/
self-actors
n Increase in tribalism
n Increase in choice
n Increase in nepotism
n Global connectivity n Increased use of VR
n Break up of Union n An English
Parliament
n New emerging
industries
n Global economy
shift from west to east
n General Election
n Fiscal reform
(ie Barnett Formula to
devolved regions)
n Modernisation
of mechanisms
of government
(Parliamentary reform)
n Increase of
size of state;
further workload of
government, more
lobbying targets
n Rise of cost of
living/consuming
n Increased
wealth divide
n Rise in cost of
social care
n Growth in social
care sector
n Big data
n Disinformation
n 5G
n Privacy Intrusion
n Digital lifestyles
n Tech Intrusion
n General Election
n Labour Government –
nationalisation of public services
n Regional devolution (cities,
mayors)
n Population rise
n Rise of personality politics
n Increasing polarisation,
changing political identities,
increase in personality politics
n Dominance of echo chambers –
fragmentation
n Me too movement continues
n Backlash/violence against
journalist class
n New social channels – changing
popularity of current channels
n Hyper connected communities
n Increase in importance of
Influencers
n Fragmentation and re-
clustering of social activism
n Growth and regulation of gig
economy
n UK economy shrinks (hits PR
budgets)
n Financial crash; uncertainty
increases demand for PA
n Call for risk taking, more
“bombastic” corporate comms
n Growth of digital industry as
major lobbying group
n Climate change changing
consumer behaviour
n Financial impact of general
election
n No Deal Brexit – doom or
boom?
• House price crash
n Big Data
n Greater
access to
politicians by
constituents
and voters
n Need for
lobbyists?
Can business
leaders
interact
directly with
politicians
via new
digital media
platforms
n Politicisa­
tion of civil
service
n Change in
Government
– possible
shift from
capitalism if
Labour
n Greater
access to
politicians by
constituents
and voters
n Change
in lobbying
regulation
n Impact of
automation
on lobbying
n Develop­
ments in
big Data
n Increase
in number
of political
parties
n Aging
population
n Increase
in loneliness
and isolation
n Increase in
immigration
and
demographic
tensions
persisting
n Decline
in value
of privacy
and data
protection to
individuals
n Connect­
ivity in
transport/
infrastructure
(Crossrail/
HS2)
n More
cities and
mega cities
n UK less
London
centric
n Retirement
age rises (75+)
n MPs increasingly
consulting
constituents; more
transparency
n Restruc­
ture of MP
roles (2 per
constituency;
1 local /
1 Parlia­
mentary)
n End of cash
n Link between virtue
and data – (Chinese
social credit)
n De-genderisatinn
n Fight back against
misinformation
n Impersonalisation of
healthcare
n Increase in role
of citizen
n Breakdown of Party system n Closer alignment with USA
(51st State)
n Monitored staff and
work environments
n Global decision making n Changes in work/life balancen Change in diet with
alternative find sources
(e.g. insects)
n Increase in urbanisation n Aging populationn Euthanasia
– life planning
n Reproduc­
tion rates
decline
n Society
more at
ease with
automation
n Capitalism
becomes
‘lighter’
n Embracing
virtual reality
n Major shift
in skills –
new digital
skills highly
valuable.
Repetitive
task jobs
less valuable
n Social
Shockwave
– demand
for purpose
driven
businesses
n Changing
nature of
work –
blurring of
work/life
balance
n 24/7
economy
and
businesses
n Rise of
globally
focused
politics/
decision
making
(ie on
environment)
n Networked
individuals v
the digitally
dispossessed
n Internet
of things
n Big data
increasingly
used in
decision
making on
policy/politics
n Rise of
Republicanism
n Migration shift –
south to north
n Rebranding
of Britain to
remove the
“Great”
n Decline
in natural
resources
n Rise in
alternative
foods
n Rise in
environmental
consciousness
n Increase
in demand
for technical
education
n Changing
world of work
n Increase in
globalisation
n Boom
period (?)
n Nature of
work changes
due to AI
n Rapid
deregulation
n ‘High skill’
gig economy
leading to
de-skilling
HORIZON ONE
(TO END OF 2020)
HORIZON TWO
(2021-2023)
HORIZON THREE
(2024-2030)
HORIZON FOUR
(BEYOND 2030)
SOCIAL
POLITICALTECHNOLOGICAL
PUBLIC AFFAIRS
HORIZON SCAN
ECONOMIC