Emerging Digital Democracy?
Social Media & Sri Lanka's
Presidential Election 2015
By Nalaka Gunawardene
Science writer, columnist & new media watcher
Institute of Commonwealth Studies,
University of London
& Commonwealth Journalists’ Association (CJA)
London 12 Feb 2015

My Perspective…
 Science writer & journalist for 25+ yrs
 Exploring technology-society nexus…
 Chronicling (since 1990) how new comm
technologies are reshaping Lankan society
 Blogger since 2007: nalakagunawardene.com
 On Twitter since 2009: @NalakaG
 Ranked among Top 10 tweeps during
#PresPollSL

My limitations…
 Not a political scientist or analyst
 Not affiliated with any political
party or lobby group
 Views here entirely my own
 Have more questions than
answers right now!
Images used in good faith, non-commercially

Sri Lanka Presidential Election 2015:
A Brief Chronology
 20 Nov 2014: incumbent President Rajapaksa
issued proclamation calling for a presidential
election 2 yrs ahead of schedule
 21 Nov: Rajapaksa’s Health Minister & Party Gen
Sec Maithripala Sirisena defects, becomes
Common Opposition Candidate
 8 Dec: Nominations given by 19 candidates
 8 Jan 2015: Election Day: 81.52% voter turn-out
 9 Jan 2015: Maithripala Sirisena declared
winner, sworn in the same day

#PresPollSL
Results in summary
Full official results at:
http://www.slelections.gov.lk/presidential2015/AIVOT.html

A very close contest…
Result that surprised many…

More than a change of guard:
A new political culture emerging?

Rajapaksa vs Sirisena: MR vs MS
Contest in physical & cyber worlds…

Election campaigning period:
All typical factors were seen…
Elections happen in rough-and-tumble world of
politics. During 50 days of #PresPollSL, we saw:
 Political parties realigning
 Some Members of Parliament crossing over
 Large volumes of money being spent
 (minor) ideological differences
 Some physical violence (but not as feared)
 Issues eclipsed by personalities

Key campaign issues:
Structural changes dominant
 Abolition of all-powerful Executive Presidency
 Constitutional reforms
 Need for genuine reconciliation (civil war
ended in mid 2009)
 Good governance, specifically:
 Ending widespread corruption
 Ending nepotism and cronyism
 Ensuring independence of the Judiciary
 Guaranteeing freedom of expression
 Cost of living & state of the economy

2 important trends this time
 Stronger civil society participation:
 NGOs, professionals, progressive clergy
 Framing political debates
 Presenting demands & priorities to candidates
 Shaping manifesto of Common Opp Candidate
 Unprecedented use of new media
 Mobile phones (esp smartphones)
 Social Media (esp Facebook, Twitter, YouTube)
 Politically unaffiliated cyber-activists vocal
 Candidates’ using new media (but not engaging)

Emerging Information Society?
Is Sri Lanka’s information society reaching
maturity?
 Mobile phones for 25 yrs (since 1989)
 Commercial Internet for 20 yrs (since 1995)
 Progressive telecom regulation  market
competition  affordable telecom services
 No longer limited to cities, English speakers or
middle class demographics
 Game changer: Mobiles & Smartphones
connecting to the web

Mobile phone subscriptions
growth: 1991 – 2014 March
 This is the way
Source: Telecom Regulatory Commission of Sri Lanka
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
19921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
Mar
Subscribers

Internet subscriptions (accounts)
1995-2014 (No of users: x 2 or x 3)
Source: Telecom Regulatory Commission of Sri Lanka
0
2,00,000
4,00,000
6,00,000
8,00,000
10,00,000
12,00,000
14,00,000
16,00,000
18,00,000
20,00,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mar
I& E-mail
Mobile BB

New Media Use in Sri Lanka
Headline figures to note
 Sri Lanka total pop: 21 million
 105 mobile subscriptions per 100 persons
 Allowing for multiple SIMs, approx most
adults use or have easy access to a mobile
 Est. 2.5 – 3 million smartphones in use
 Around 22% of pop using Internet regularly
 Most web access thru mobile devices
 Costs of connection & use among lowest in
world (smartphones from £50 up; data
packages from £1.50/month)

Still not clear…
 WHEN does an emerging information
society reach critical threshold when
connectedness influences voter
behaviour significantly?
 Internet use rate: 20%, 25% or 40%?
 Mobile penetration: 50%, 75%, 100%?
 Which are the enabling or mitigating
factors in such scenarios?
 More social science research needed!
 Pity Lankan universities don’t study this

My analogy on what’s going on:
Umbra + Penumbra during eclipses!
 Something similar happening in LK with 22%
Internet users’ access casting a wider shadow
in society: needs more research to understand

Leading political commentator
& blogger agrees…
“This election saw an
unprecedented use of social
media in Sri Lanka. Over 80% of
our youth is computer literate -
many have smartphones and
regularly log in to social media.
Political content they absorb
from online sources spreads fast
to (offline) communities in
villages.”
Ajith Perakum
Jayasingha
Blogger & Tweep
@ajithperakum

Social Media and Elections:
What is happening in Asia?
 Social Media and Elections in
Asia-Pacific – The Growing
Power of the Youth Vote
 Pub: Konrad-Adenauer-
Stiftung’s Media Programme
Asia in Singapore; Nov 2013
 Editors: Alastair Carthew &
Simon Winkelmann
 Full book for free download:
http://www.kas.de/wf/doc/kas_
35939-1522-2-30.pdf?
131105090233

Sri Lanka Case Study:
Colombo Municipal Election Oct 2011
 Chapter by Nalaka Gunawardene
& Chanuka Wattegama:
Did youth vote & social media
make a difference in CMC (local
govt) Election of Oct 2011?
 Our conclusion: Not quite -- but a
new trend is emerging: Watch
This Space!
 Full chapter download:
http://goo.gl/a8ByOs

#PresPollSL 2015 (38 months later)
Trends clearer & stronger
 Political parties still in ‘broadcast mode’:
centrally produced messages & materials
disseminated thru media, outdoors
 For party campaign managers, web &
social media just another outlet/medium?
 Neither MR nor MS campaigns really
engaged voters much online
 Tech-savvy citizens used social media to
deepen & enrich public debates
 Had a ripple effect on society as a whole

Most vibrant discussions online
Also a lot of noise (unavoidable)
Hashtag #PresPollSL was used by thousands as
common denominator in Twitter & Facebook

Arise, tech-savvy citizens!
During #PresPollSL campaign period, numerous
citizens used social media to:
 Question candidates on specifics
 Advocate public interest and/or reforms
 Counter misinformation from campaigns
 Ridicule excessive campaign practices
 Mobilise all voters to turn up
 Protest against election violence
 Lobby for ignored but vital issues

Online conversation topics
(Different to mainstream media’s)
My impressionistic listing is based on many
observations during election campaign period:
 Racial & religious harmony
 Excessive militarization of society
 large scale corruption & lack of law
enforcement
 declining rule of law
 lack of media freedom
 state of the economy
 Rise of ultra-nationalism and superstition

Role of social media during election:
as seen by cartoonist of Ceylon Today

Mainstream media cautious, flooded
with paid campaign advertising
All newspaper frontpages bought by Rajapaksa campaign on
nominations day, 8 Dec 2014

Gross misuse of state power, esp
state media by the incumbent

Outdoor promotion frenzy by
MR campaign

Maithri campaign more subdued,
promising Unity & Real Change

Ethnic minority voters
initially uncertain of what it means
Daily Mirror cartoon by Awantha Artigala

Mahinda ‘Brand’ promotion
Incumbent was promoted on these factors:
 Tried and tested leader
 Winning the 26-yr war
 Economic growth & infrastructure dev
 Patriot who stood up to the West & rest
 Only he can safeguard territorial integrity of
Sri Lanka
 Give one more term ‘to finish what he started’

Rajapaksa campaign: showcasing
post-war growth & rebuilding

Maithri ‘brand’ promotion
 Grassroots politician, man of the people
 Unifying figure for a broad political alliance
 Vote for him to end corruption & family rule
 He will abolish (or dilute) Executive Presidency
 Restore rule of law
 Respect rights and dignity of all citizens
 Unitary state, but a multicultural society

Uncluttered imagery:
candidate and his
rainbow alliance
Play on his
name which
means
compassion

MR & MS Mainstream Media
campaigns: Total advertising spend?
 Rajapaksa: LKR 2.03 billion = GBP 10.12m
All came from public funds and budget for
president’s office and other ministries
 Sirisena: LKR 676 million = GBP 3.42m
 Airtime and print space buying only (not
covering production costs)
Source:
 The Sunday Times (Sri Lanka): 15 Jan 2015
http://www.sundaytimes.lk/150118/business-
times/former-president-spent-over-rs-2-bln-in-state-funds-
on-election-ads-130623.html

Political campaigns online…
 Official websites
 Official Facebook pages
 Official Twitter accounts
 Fan/supporter efforts
ORCHESTRATED, MOSTLY ONE-WAY
CONTRASTED WITH CONTESTED SPACE
ON SOCIAL MEDIA

Indian cyber factor in
#PresPollSL 2015?
 Rajapaksa campaign
reportedly engaged Arvind
Gupta @buzzindelhi (key
social media advisor to
Narendra Modi in 2014)
 The Hindu & other media
reports not fully confirmed
 MR’s online presence far
stronger than Maithri’s
 However, it’s not only a
numbers game…
Cartoon by The Sunday
Times, Sri Lanka

Sirisena social media:
A small miracle?
 Seemed to be driven mostly by
volunteers (not necessarily party
supporters)
 Passionate – but not always well
coordinated – individuals
 Helped to rebalance huge
asymmetry of resources between
two campaigns
 Underdog sympathy enjoyed

Trend 1:
Web memes come of age!
 Words, images or combination
 Some funny, others serious
 Creators unknown (or stayed
anonymous)
 Ideal for quick sharing on social
media
 Spurring much discussion
 No ‘Sacred Cows’! (monks &
military included)

Memes galore!
(most in local languages)

Adapting existing memes…

Two of the most widely shared citizen
icons/memes during election

My own simple meme:
Widely shared on The Day After

Trend 2:
Big PR & Advertising trumped
 Unpaid, unknown citizen
creations more appealing &
widely shared online
 Officially engaged (and
highly paid) PR firms & ad
agencies had competition!
 “Rough & Dirty” wins over
slick & costly
 Most jibes were aimed at
incumbent, e.g. 
“Modern proverb:
Borrowing from China;
donating to Palestine!”

Pro-incumbent creation: “Criticise him, but don’t forget
we breathe today thanks to this brave leader!”

Shortly after Sirisena defected to the Opposition and
became Common Presidential Candidate…

Salman Khan’s role in MR campaign:
Lampooned avidly in social media!
 Brief campaign appearance
for Rajapaksa in late Dec

Trend 3:
‘Long tails’ of politico words & videos
 Politicians’ past words &
deeds located & showcased
online by cyber activists…
 Video clips of campaign
gaffes shared on Facebook &
YouTube
 Having to EAT THEIR OWN
WORDS?
 Indiscretions can no longer
be played down or wished
way: They live online!

Loose Talk,
amplified online!
 Daily Mirror front page
report on remark by
Rajapaksa govt’s minister:
“We have plundered
enough!” 
 Immediately seized &
very widely shared by
social media users
 Such unguarded words
achieved long shelf-life on
YouTube, Facebook

Trend 4:
Social Media as a networking space
 Provided space for activists,
artistes, university students &
public intellectuals to network,
collaborate & disseminate
political info & opinions
 Critical political websites were
blocked within Lanka - BUT not
social media platforms!
 Vital in view of mainstream
media’s self-censorship +
widespread repression of
dissent
Anti-govt street
protest notice,
shared online

[Left] Transparency Int call to
citizens to protect public property
being misused during election
campaigns
[Above] Countdown to Maithri Era

Trend 5:
Civil Society is web-savvy & creative!
 Going beyond statements, press releases,
placards, physical marches, rallies, etc.
 Innovating online for political advocacy:
 Infographics (e.g. making sense of numbers)
 word-clouds (e.g. visualizing manifestos)
 interactive maps (e.g. geo-referencing election
violence)
 Online surveys showcasing citizen sentiments
 Online petitions on specific reforms

Rajapaksa manifesto
Keywords captured in word cloud
By Groundviews.org on 27 Dec 2014
http://groundviews.org/2014/12/27/mahinda-rajapaksa-
maithripala-sirisena-2015-manifesto-wordclouds/

Sirisena manifesto
Keywords captured in word cloud
By Groundviews.org on 27 Dec 2014
http://groundviews.org/2014/12/27/mahinda-rajapaksa-
maithripala-sirisena-2015-manifesto-wordclouds/

CPA’s online survey: 12-16 Dec 2014: based on 1,394
respondents

 Campaign by Groundviews.org
urging every voter to turn up on
Election Day
 81.52% registered voters did:
highest in any LK Presidential
Election

My finger ‘selfie’ shared online
8 Jan 2015 (just after I voted)

Trend 6:
Citizens talk back on Social Media!
 Orthodoxy, sycophancy and
sometimes gross misinformation in
sections of mainstream media
countered by bloggers, tweeps and
other social media users
 Many alternative political discussions
unfolding online
 Leading local language bloggers have
bigger readership than some
mainstream daily newspapers!

Rare instance of citizen engagement:
by Maithri campaign heavyweight

 JHU (Buddhist monks’ party) became key supporters
of Sirisena. But their leader avoided my questions on
multiculturalism, 13th
Amendment to Constitution
(devolution)
 QUSTION NOT ANSWERED!

 QUSTION NOT ANSWERED!
 Also avoided: Questions on 13th
Amendment to the
Constitution that devolves power to Provinces

Trend 7:
Social media amplifying Mainstream Media
 MSM+SM came together at
times
 Some news, analysis or
cartoons in mainstream widely
shared on social media…
 Inspiring discussion & debate
 Assuming momentum of own
 Adding to citizen demands for
clarity on manifestos, for non-
violent campaigning, etc.

 It is our democratic right to cast our vote to any
candidate of our choice, without fear or influence
 Wijeya Newspapers cartoonist Awantha Artigala’s
creation widely shared in social media

Mainstream news photos
going ‘viral’ on SM
 Protesting
university
students
attacked by
police in
Colombo
 This police
officer’s son
condemned
dad’s attack on
Facebook
 It went viral!

Thousands of Voices online…
Top 10 Tweeps using #PresPollSL
Eclectic mix comprising:
 2 main candidates’ official accounts
 2 foreign corrs (BBC Sinhala, BBC corr in Colombo)
 3 mainstream journalists (tweeting personally)
 1 daily newspaper (Daily Mirror official newsfeed)
 1 automated bot (Siripala)
 4 citizen journalists
 1 hybrid journalist (myself!)
 Full analyis on Read.Me online IT Magazine:
http://readme.lk/running-prespollsl/

This is a highly visualized map of the flow of information
along the #PresPollSL hashtag, dating from now to the 10th
of January. Each twitter account is represented by a circle
(node). The size of each node directly corresponds to the
number of tweets it’s pushing out.
Details: http://readme.lk/running-prespollsl/

Archive of tweets on 2015
Presidential Election
 Every single tweet with
hashtag #PresPollSL, used by
mainstream media, leading
civic media & citizen
journalism initiatives in Sri
Lanka to post updates around
Presidential Election 2015
 http://groundviews.org/2014/
11/27/archive-of-tweets-on-
2015-presidential-election/

Elections & Social Media:
Rapidly evolving nexus
“Tactics such as owning,
controlling and displaying media
(e.g. posters & large cutouts)
that would have worked 6 yrs
ago, don’t seem to work
anymore. Even the social media
we think we know and
understand is changing rapidly…”
- Angelo Fernando
technology columnist;
author, Chat Republic
(2013) @heyangelo

Was #PresPollSL 2015 Sri Lanka’s
first Cyber Election?
 We have more questions than
answers for now!
 Worth probing further, as I said in
my essay capturing impressions &
examples
 Groundviews.org: 15 Jan 2015
 http://groundviews.org/2015/01/1
3/was-prespollsl-2015-sri-lankas-
first-cyber-election/

Unanswered Questions!#
Attn: media & info society researchers!
 Did myriads of open, public conversations
raise level of public awareness of key political
issues relevant to this election?
 How much of citizen awakening can be
attributed to the fast spread of smartphones
and broadband Internet?
 Could such fleeting communications really
have influenced how people voted?
 Did cyber-savvy Lankans play a decisive role in
the peaceful regime change that happened on
Jan 8/9?

Thank You!
Blog: www.nalakagunawardene.com
Column archive:
https://collidecolumn.wordpress.com
Twitter: @NalakaG
This is a contested space:
Always open for debate!