The document provides the following information in 3 sentences:
1) Share prices of major Malaysian property developers like SP Setia and Mah Sing have fallen significantly in the past week due to a report that the government may change how housing loans are calculated from gross to net pay to curb speculation.
2) While the analyst expected the news to impact share prices, they are surprised by the speed and severity of the selloff, which has also spread to construction companies with property exposure despite details of any policy changes still being unclear.
3) The analyst maintains an overweight rating on the property sector and outperform recommendations on all developers, seeing the share price falls as a buying opportunity, and believing the property market fundamentals
For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com
A presentation by Antje Biber, the Managing Partner at Feri Trust GmbH who presented on selection requirements for hedge funds at the Investment Consultant Summit, September 2012.
Join the 2014 Investments Summit along with leading regional investors in an intimate environment for a highly focused discussion on the latest investment strategies in the market.
For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com
For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com
A presentation by Antje Biber, the Managing Partner at Feri Trust GmbH who presented on selection requirements for hedge funds at the Investment Consultant Summit, September 2012.
Join the 2014 Investments Summit along with leading regional investors in an intimate environment for a highly focused discussion on the latest investment strategies in the market.
For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com
Burns-Fazzi, Brock specializes in providing benefit plans for credit union executives and directors. Utilize their expertise by reading this newsletter! This issue contains: understanding salary surveys, schedule of upcoming events, introducing the BFB Foundation, and BFB Earns SSAE 16 SOC 1 Type II Certification. www.nafcu.org/bfb/
SuperReturn 2010: Bumpy road ahead for Private Equity investorsValue Partners
In February the private equity industry came together in Berlin, Germany for its annual gathering of Limited Partners (LPs) and General Partners (GPs). Reassured by historical analysis of past booms & busts, some practitioners expect a new peak in capital allocations sometime this decade, while others quietly wondered if their investment houses would hold together long enough to enjoy the next wave of super-returns. One key message emerged loudly: future top quartile GPs will rely significantly less on financial engineering and much more on differentiated investment themes, deep sector expertise & insight, and renewed efforts on growing the EBITDA base of their portfolio companies. By Alfonso Marone, partner of Value Partners, London.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJVgJ5kPb70 is one of the world's foremost brokers advising on global medical insurance policies. We work with all the major worldwide medical insurance coverage firms and have places of work in Europe and Asia. Worldwide we have above +120,000 clients, the greater part of our customers are people but we also work with some of the world's leading organizations such as L<apos>Oreal and Unilever. Our skills is in supplying tips and support to individuals seeking for comprehensive international medical insurance policy, notably people living in developing nations around the world or overseas from their home country.
Burns-Fazzi, Brock specializes in providing benefit plans for credit union executives and directors. Utilize their expertise by reading this newsletter! This issue contains: understanding salary surveys, schedule of upcoming events, introducing the BFB Foundation, and BFB Earns SSAE 16 SOC 1 Type II Certification. www.nafcu.org/bfb/
SuperReturn 2010: Bumpy road ahead for Private Equity investorsValue Partners
In February the private equity industry came together in Berlin, Germany for its annual gathering of Limited Partners (LPs) and General Partners (GPs). Reassured by historical analysis of past booms & busts, some practitioners expect a new peak in capital allocations sometime this decade, while others quietly wondered if their investment houses would hold together long enough to enjoy the next wave of super-returns. One key message emerged loudly: future top quartile GPs will rely significantly less on financial engineering and much more on differentiated investment themes, deep sector expertise & insight, and renewed efforts on growing the EBITDA base of their portfolio companies. By Alfonso Marone, partner of Value Partners, London.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJVgJ5kPb70 is one of the world's foremost brokers advising on global medical insurance policies. We work with all the major worldwide medical insurance coverage firms and have places of work in Europe and Asia. Worldwide we have above +120,000 clients, the greater part of our customers are people but we also work with some of the world's leading organizations such as L<apos>Oreal and Unilever. Our skills is in supplying tips and support to individuals seeking for comprehensive international medical insurance policy, notably people living in developing nations around the world or overseas from their home country.
Unit Trust Fund: CIMB Islamic Asia Pacific Equity Fund vs CIMB-Principal ASEA...Afifah Nabilah
This is our group assignment for Investment Analysis (FIN 4020) class. We were required to compare between the Islamic and conventional unit trust fund which are coming from the same category.
BANKING Mar 09 Statistics Some ResilienceBoyboy cute
Positive signs. Loan disbursements, repayments, applications and
approvals rebounded with strong double-digit MoM growth, flattish-tolow-
teens YoY growth, and in absolute term, were back to pre-Aug/Sep
’08 levels. Absolute NPLs continued to inch lower, mainly from the
working capital segment. Nonetheless, it is early to tell whether these
are sustainable as global fundamentals remain weak.
Strong loan disbursements and repayments. Banking loans (net of
repayments) grew to RM733.9m in Mar ’09 (+0.6% MoM, +10.9% YoY)
on expansion in both household (+0.4% MoM, +8.8% YoY) and
business loans (+0.9% MoM, +9.5% YoY). The pace of disbursements
and repayments was strong (disbursements: +27.4% MoM, +9% YoY;
repayments: +15.7% MoM, +4.8% YoY), mainly for working capital.
YTD loans growth was +1% (household: +1.5%, business: +0.5%).
Forward indicators bounced MoM but still flattish YoY. Loan
applications and approvals also rebounded strongly: +24.3% MoM and
+35.3% MoM respectively. On a YoY comparison, loan applications
were up 4.7%, driven by household loan applications (+21.5%), mainly
for home purchases, which off-set lower applications from businesses
(-11%). Overall loan approvals were rather flattish YoY, with approvals
up for household loans (+12.6%) but down for business loans (-13%).
Absolute NPLs contracted further. Absolute gross NPLs continued
to inch lower, at a slightly higher pace of -3.7% MoM to RM33.6b (Feb
‘09: -0.04% MoM). On a 3-month comparison (see table in page 4),
the lower NPLs came mainly from the working capital segment,
reflecting perhaps resilient business strength. Meanwhile, net NPL ratio
was little changed at 2.24% (Feb ‘09: 2.23%).
Remain Underweight. YTD loans growth, if sustained, should lead to
the upper end of our 2-3% loans growth forecast for 2009. Our other
assumption is for absolute NPLs to expand by 50% YoY by end-2009,
leading to a projected 10% decline in combined net profit for 2009.
While loans quality was resilient in Mar ’09, we remain concerned over
rising NPLs – our analysis shows a 3-6 months interval from GDP
trough to NPL peak. The other main risk is a protracted economic
slowdown leading to rising unemployment and asset deflation.
Weakness ahead. Loan disbursements, applications and approvals
slowed in Apr, reflecting cautious sentiment. Loans growth was just
1.4% YTD, and 4.2% annualised. There was a slight uptick in absolute
NPLs, implying stress in some loans segments. The poor 1Q09 GDP
numbers suggest growing stress in system loans over the next few
months. We remain cautious on banks’ profits, especially from 3Q09.
1.4% YTD loans growth. Banking loans (net of repayments) grew to
RM736.5m in Apr ’09 (+0.4% MoM, +10.6% YoY) on expansion in both
household (+0.7% MoM, +8.5% YoY) and business loans (-0.03%
MoM, +9.2% YoY). Disbursements slowed (-6.6% MoM, -6.4% YoY)
but repayments were relatively stable (+1.3% MoM, -2.8% YoY). YTD
loans growth was +1.4% (4M2008: +3.4%), driven by household loans
(+2.2%) while business loans’ growth was anemic (+0.4%).
Forward indicators contracting. Loan applications and approvals fell
YoY: -5.4% and -18.2%. The business segment saw loan applications
and approvals down 24.2% and 35%, while the household segment
continued to see growing appetite in loan applications but flattish loan
approvals. On a MoM comparison, both indicators also showed
contraction. Loan applications fell 1.4% while approvals slipped 0.8%.
Absolute NPLs inched up. Absolute NPLs ticked-up by 0.34% MoM to
RM33.7b (Mar ‘09: -3.7% MoM). However, Apr ‘09’s absolute NPLs
were still lower than a year ago, by 14.7%. We suspect the rising NPLs
came from the business segment, especially exporters. The net NPL
ratio was unchanged at 2.24% due to the expanded loans base. Loan
loss coverage (LLC) remained adequate at 88.5% (Mar ’09: 88.3%).
Stay Underweight. The combined 1Q09 net profit of the six banking
stocks we cover was down 2.1% QoQ, and a sharper 13.1% YoY, on
lower treasury and FX income and higher loan loss provisions. We
expect sector earnings to contract 10% YoY in 2009 and reiterate our
concerns on asset and loan quality as the economy contracts over the
next two quarters. Our analysis shows a 3-6 months interval from GDP
trough to NPL peak. Banks are set to report weaker profits.
Be cautious into 3Q. 1Q09 results of the six banking stocks we cover
were generally in line, with combined net profit down 2.1% QoQ and
13.1% YoY. However, the weak 1Q09 GDP suggests growing stress in
system loans over the coming months. We remain cautious on banks’
profits, especially from 3Q09. Underweight the sector.
1Q down a sharp 13.1% YoY. Other than AMMB’s positive surprise,
results were generally in-line. The combined net profit of our banking
universe was flattish QoQ but fell a sharp 13.1% YoY on lower treasury
and FX income and higher loan loss provisions. Net interest income
expanded, but the weak equity market continued to affect brokerage
income, which contracted for the 5th to 6th consecutive quarter.
Some signs of stress. Domestic loans continued growing at most
banks. QoQ loan growth at the major banks (Maybank, CIMB Bank and
Public Bank) outpaced system growth. Some loan segments, however,
have begun showing stress. Domestic NPL saw upticks in the
consumer (mortgage, autos) and working capital segments. Net NPL
ratios continued to trend down due to the expanded loans base.
Earnings to contract. There were no major revisions in our individual
earnings forecasts except for AMMB (FY09: +16%, FY10: +7%). Our
combined net profit forecast was upgraded by a marginal 0.1% for 2009
and 0.7% for 2010. We expect sector earnings to contract 9.9% in
2009, before recovering to 6.8% growth in 2010 (previously -10.1%,
+6.1% respectively). This excludes further impairment in the value of
long-term investments, merger costs and other one-offs.
Asset quality concerns. 1Q09 GDP (-6.2% YoY, -7.7% QoQ) should
be the weakest, suggesting that the worst may be over. However, we
expect economic recovery to be slow, with real GDP to return to the
3Q08 high only in 4Q10. There is a 3-6 month interval from GDP trough
to NPL peak. Hence, banks are set to report weaker profits on rising
NPLs and higher credit charges from 3Q09.
Mainly Sells. Against regional peers, the larger Malaysian banks are
pricey. The current liquidity driven market has pushed valuations up but
prospects for a strong economic recovery stay hazy. Sell into strength.
Be realistic, be selective. We believe this market rally has pushed
valuations to the point where growth expectations have reached
implausible levels. In fact, profits have just begun to turn down. We are
not overly bearish – our Buy list is longer than our Sell list – but we
caution that optimism over growth can disappear as quickly as it
appeared. Domestic factors, particularly political developments, may
be a positive catalyst.
Profit recession has just begun. Industrial production peaked in
January 2008, but profits only began a broad-based decline in 1Q09.
Within our coverage, 63% of the companies that have released 1Q
earnings reported lower sequential quarterly net profits. In seven
sectors, our entire coverage list suffered profit contractions. This
suggests the recession in profits has just begun.
Market valuation implies an optimistic view of growth. The market
currently trades at 15.2x 2009 earnings, up from 12x earlier this year.
This is only 10% below the previous cycle’s mid-cycle value, but today,
we face growth of -7.7% (2009) and +9.7% (2010), taking market
earnings only 1% higher by the end of 2010 from its end-2008 level.
Market growth expectations seem to be running ahead of reality.
History tells us the bear market isn’t over. Two previous bear
markets over 1981-86 and 1993-98 lasted 57 and 58 months
respectively. It has now been 17 months from the January 2008
collapse. Those bear markets had 22-38 trend reversals of 5% or more;
we have now seen 12 since January 2008. These comparisons suggest
we are, at best, half way through this bear market.
Bet on Prime Minister Najib, but Sell hope. Our top stock picks are
in the construction sector. We expect PM Najib will deliver on the fiscal
spending promises, reinvigorating the construction and building
materials sectors. Our top Sells are stocks where high hopes and
expectations have been built in; where current prices have run well
ahead of both our and consensus target prices.
Politics a positive wildcard. Beyond rapidly executed fiscal packages,
the country’s new leadership could make further changes to longstanding
policies to attract foreign investment and win back broader
support from all Malaysians. These initiatives should be positive for
equity market at least in the short-term.
Brian X. Tierney, American Electric Power executive vice president and chief financial officer presented to an audience of investors at the Credit Suisse Energy Summit in Vail, Colo., on Feb. 8, 2011.
A webcast of the presentation can be accessed through the Internet at http://www.aep.com/investors/webcasts/.
During the conference, AEP reaffirmed its 2011 ongoing earnings guidance of $3.00 to $3.20 per share.
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iProperty.com Malaysia 2013 Property Sentiment Survey Results & AnalysisiProperty Malaysia
The iProperty.com Asia Property Market Sentiment Survey (H1) 2013, conducted on the iProperty Group’s leading websites in Malaysia (iproperty.com.my), Indonesia (Rumah123.com and rumahdanproperti.com), Hong Kong (GoHome.com.hk) and Singapore (iproperty.com.sg), is the first cross-market online property survey of its kind.
A total of 3,459 people responded to the online survey on iproperty.com.my from 5th December 2011 to 19th January 2012.
The results showed that 62.3% of survey respondents were keen on purchasing property in the next 6 to 12 months, with 71.3% stating that they had a budget under RM 500,000. Interestingly as well, 28% of respondents wished to purchase property as investment for resale, more than in other survey respondents in the other regions.
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Who might benefit? Anyone and everyone leading folks from the shop floor to top floor.
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CIMB Research — Developers’ Share Sell-down Overdone
1. QUICK TAKES
20 July 2011
MALAYSIA
CIMB Research Report
OVERWEIGHT Maintained
Property Sector
An overdone hammering
Terence Wong CFA +60(3) 20849689 - terence.wong@cimb.com
Steep fall in share prices
Sector leaders SP Setia and Mah Sing have been heavily sold down since last week
on the back of The Edge’s report on the possibility of a change in housing loan
calculations from gross to net pay. Although we did expect the news to rattle
investors, we are taken aback by the speed and severity of the selloff. The selldown is
excessive as the jitters even spilled over yesterday to construction companies with
property development exposure. The report is yet to be confirmed and even if the
measure is implemented, we believe it could be mild as the intention is to curb
speculation, not hammer overall sentiment. Investors should continue accumulating
property stocks on weakness. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT sector rating and an
Outperform on all developers. Mah Sing remains our top pick and SP Setia our core
holding.
The news
Share prices of property stocks have been on a downtrend since The Edge weekly
carried a report that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) had issued a white paper to obtain
feedback on the possibility of basing the calculation of household loans (mortgage and
hire purchase) on net pay instead of gross pay. Mah Sing led the fall in share prices
yesterday, which spilled over to construction companies with significant property
exposure.
Figure 1: Share price performance
Share price Share price Price c hg Sha re price Share price YTD
(RM) (RM) sinc e (RM) (RM) price
8-Jul 1 9-Jul Edge 3 0-Dec 19-Jul cha nge
Property develope rs
E&O 1 .55 1.43 -7.7% 1.18 1.43 21.2%
Ma h Sin g 2 .60 2.22 -1 4.6% 1.84 2.22 20.7%
SP Setia 4 .14 3.75 -9.4% 3.97 3.75 -5.5%
UM Land 2 .01 1.96 -2.5% 1.75 1.96 12.0%
UOA Dev 2 .22 2.09 -5.9% NA 2.09 NA
Average -8.0% 12.1%
KLPRP Index 1,096 .17 1036 .46 -5.4% 1 ,020.86 1 036.46 1.5%
Contractors
Gamu da 3 .81 3.55 -6.8% 3.82 3.55 -7.1%
IJM Corp 6 .46 6.19 -4.2% 6.23 6.19 -0.6%
MRCB 2 .32 2.20 -5.2% 1.99 2.20 10.6%
Mu hib bah 1 .36 1.16 -1 4.7% 1.50 1.16 -22.7%
Mu dajaya 3 .40 3.26 -4.1% 3.20 3.26 1.9%
WCT 3 .12 2.97 -4.8% 3.14 2.97 -5.4%
Average -6.6% -3.9%
KLCON Inde x 284 .71 270 .46 -5.0% 285.01 270.46 -5.1%
KLCI 1,594 .74 1555 .64 -2.5% 1 ,518.91 1 555.64 2.4%
Source: CIMB estimates, companies
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.
2. Comments
Although we expected share prices to fall on reports of possible measures to curb
excessive property speculation (see Property sector report dated 11 Jul for details),
we are surprised by the speed and severity of the selldown. We are also surprised
that the jitters have spilled over to construction companies which have much less
exposure to property than the pure developers.
As we stated early last week, the proposal by BNM to change the calculation from
gross pay to net pay is a negative surprise and would be negative for the property
sector in the short term. But we are not surprised that the central bank is concerned
about an overheating of the property market and excessive consumer debt. There has
also been talk of the possibility of the proposal of a higher real property gains tax
(RPGT) or a loans-to-value (LTV) cap for commercial property in the 2012 Budget
which will be tabled on 7 Oct. We view the change to net pay in the calculation of
housing loan limit as merely another way to curb property speculation.
Our views have not changed since last week. We think that any measures to curb
domestic speculation are likely to have only a short-lived impact on physical property
sales, as was the case when a flat 5% RPGT was levied in Oct 2009 and an LTV ratio
of 70% was imposed on the 3rd property purchase in Nov 2010. In both cases, the
impact on the real property market was a wait-and-see attitude by buyers for 2-3
months before they rushed back into the market when they realised that house prices
were firm and still rising. Even if we assume the worst-case scenario where a change
in the calculation results in a 26% fall in affordability, in line with the maximum
personal tax rate, the affordability ratio is still very healthy (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: Average affordability index (mortgage payment/household income)
Affordability index based on gross pay Affordability index based on net pay
0.4500
0.4500
0.4000 0.4000
0.3500 0.3500
0.3000 0.3000
0.2500 0.2500
0.2000 0.2000
0.1500 0.1500
0.1000 0.1000
0.0500 0.0500
0.0000
0.0000
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Source: BNM, CIMB Research
Also, we believe that the government will be careful not to implement measures that
would have too negative an impact on the property sector as 1) the authorities want to
encourage home ownership and restrictions would have the opposite effect, 2) the
government hopes to unlock the value of its idle land in the Klang Valley and
measures that would hurt the sector could result in lower bids for the land, and 3) the
performance of the property sector affects other key sectors of the economy and
property restrictions in the run-up to general elections may not be popular.
[ 2 ]
3. Valuation and recommendation
We continue to hold the view that there is no widespread property bubble and that the
strong appreciation of properties in certain locations is largely backed by
fundamentals. The price upsurge for landed property in the Klang Valley over the past
1-2 years by and large reflects the scarcity of land. The growth of new residential
property supply has been on a decline and last year’s 2.2% growth rate was the
slowest on record. Part of the reason for lower supply growth is the trickle of supply
from low-medium cost specialists such as Talam (TA MK, Not Rated) and LBS Bina
(LBS MK, Not Rated) as well as the dominance of developers such as SP Setia and
Mah Sing which have shifted their focus to higher-end properties. In fact, the proposed
cooling measures could lead to fewer new launches and slower supply growth, which
could result in even high property prices over the longer term.
Figure 3: Residential property supply growth
20.0%
18.0% KL Selangor
Johor Penang
16.0% Malaysia Klang Valley
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: PMR, CIMB Research
We view the weakness in share prices of both property developers and construction
companies as a buying opportunity. This is not the first time that concerns over
government measures have exerted pressure on share prices. After the cooling down
measures at end-2009 and end-2010, the market re-rated property stocks when it
realised that the impact on the real property market was temporary and mild. What
surprised us this time around is not just the immediate and intense reaction but also
the knock-on effects on the share prices of contractors. This could be a sign of jitters
among investors, who may have become more skittish after the Bersih street rally on
9 Jul.
Our view is that it is more important to analyse the health of the residential property
market and to gauge buyer sentiment and confidence. The residential property
market, in our view, remains strong, affordability is near its all-time best and we expect
both home prices and transaction volumes to remain robust in 2011/12 barring any
negative external shocks. Historically, residential property prices have almost always
been on an uptrend, falling only after recessions or a crisis. We are not predicting a
recession or a crisis. As for buyer sentiment and confidence, it will certainly be dulled
by measures to dampen speculation. However, it is too early to gauge the likely effect
as our checks with banks were not conclusive given the lack of details on the likely
calculations for net pay. Also, we think the final measures are likely to be mild in order
to avoid overkill.
[ 3 ]
4. Figure 4: Discount to RNAV and NTA
Share price RNAV/shr (Discount)/ NTA/shr (Discount)/
(RM) (RM) Premium (RM) Premium
E&O 1.44 2.82 -48.9% 1.26 14.3%
Mah Sing 2.35 2.52 -6.7% 1.02 130.4%
SP Setia 3.81 4.13 -7.7% 1.43 166.1%
UM Land 1.97 4.21 -53.2% 3.55 -44.5%
UOA Dev 2.08 2.62 -20.6% 1.19 74.8%
Average -27.4% 68.2%
Source: CIMB estimates, companies
Overall, we remain bullish on the residential property sector and maintain our
OVERWEIGHT sector rating. The selldown has made property stocks even more
attractive both on P/E and discount to RNAV basis. On average, property developers
are now trading at a 27% discount to RNAV and offer investors 43% upside to our
target prices. We have Outperform recommendations for all property developers. Mah
Sing remains our top pick in the sector. Yesterday’s sharp fall has taken its CY12 P/E
to only 8.7x. SP Setia’s share price was sold down last week and is now trading at an
8% discount to its fully diluted RNAV. Sector bellwethers typically trade at 40-50%
premium over RNAV during a market upcycle.
Figure 5: Recommendation, target price and basis
Recommendation Target basis Share price Target price Upside
(RM) (RM) to target
E&O Outperform 30% discount to RNAV 1.43 1.96 37%
Mah Sing Outperform Target market P/E of 14.5x 2.22 3.30 49%
SP Setia Outperform 30% premium over RNAV 3.75 5.37 43%
UM Land Outperform 40% discount to RNAV 1.96 2.53 29%
UOA Dev. Outperform 10% discount to target market P/E 2.09 3.25 56%
Sector Overweight 43%
Source: CIMB estimates, companies
[ 4 ]
5. Figure 6: Regional comparisons
Target Core P/BV Div RNAV Disc/
BB Price price Mkt cap P/E (x) (x) yield (%) Prem. To
ticker Recom. (Local) (Local) (US$ m) CY2011 CY2012 CY2011 CY2011 CY2011 RNAV
Singapore
Bukit Sembawang BS SP O 4.50 5.86 958 7.6 8.1 1.1 2.6 8.37 -46%
CapitaLand CAPL SP O 2.91 3.62 10,221 16.4 15.0 0.9 2.1 4.76 -39%
CMA CMA SP N 1.45 1.70 4,635 22.4 21.1 0.9 1.4 2.13 -32%
City Devt CIT SP U 10.14 10.86 7,586 16.8 13.5 1.4 1.2 13.10 -23%
F&N FNN SP O 5.76 7.34 6,672 14.0 11.5 1.2 4.6 8.15 -29%
Ho Bee HOBEE SP O 1.43 1.87 853 8.5 9.5 0.7 1.4 2.50 -43%
Keppel Land KPLD SP O 3.62 4.73 4,437 15.4 13.9 1.2 2.6 5.88 -38%
OUE OUE SP O 2.89 3.93 2,334 21.3 17.3 0.9 2.4 4.63 -38%
Singland SL SP O 6.95 10.22 2,358 15.7 15.2 0.7 2.9 12.02 -42%
UOL UOL SP N 4.95 5.55 3,127 9.7 13.3 0.8 2.5 6.68 -26%
Wheelock WP SP O 1.84 2.39 1,811 8.4 10.6 0.7 3.3 2.66 -31%
Wing Tai WINGT SP O 1.46 1.93 950 5.8 6.8 0.6 3.5 2.57 -43%
Simple average 13.5 13.0 0.9 2.5 -36%
Hong Kong/China
Agile 3383 HK O 11.94 16.58 5,323 7.8 7.0 1.6 3.1 20.7 -42%
China Overseas Land 688 HK O 16.06 19.18 16,837 10.5 9.3 2.0 1.9 19.2 -16%
China Resources 1109 HK N 14.60 15.34 10,091 14.3 11.0 1.6 2.2 21.9 -33%
Evergrande 3333 HK O 6.02 7.64 11,592 9.5 6.8 2.9 3.2 9.5 -37%
R&F 2777 HK U 9.96 8.89 4,120 6.3 6.1 1.2 4.4 18.5 -46%
KWG 1813 HK O 5.32 8.10 1,976 6.9 5.0 1.0 3.6 11.6 -54%
Poly HK 119 HK N 5.34 6.00 2,472 11.1 8.6 0.8 2.7 13.2 -60%
SOHO 410 HK O 7.22 8.60 4,809 24.9 7.5 1.8 4.3 - NA
Shimao Property 813 HK N 10.00 11.10 4,556 7.1 6.1 1.0 4.5 20.2 -51%
Sino-Ocean 3377 HK N 4.07 4.60 2,961 7.2 5.6 0.6 3.5 10.3 -61%
Simple average 10.5 7.3 1.4 3.4 -44%
Indonesia
Alam Sutera ASRI IJ O 380.00 460.00 794 14.0 9.9 2.6 1.9 685.4 -45%
Bakrieland ELTY IJ U 162.00 150.00 756 63.5 34.6 0.8 - 326.7 -50%
BSD BSDE IJ O 960.00 1,250.00 1,965 22.1 16.6 2.4 0.5 1,547.1 -38%
Ciputra CTRA IJ O 485.00 505.00 860 24.4 15.7 1.4 1.2 845.8 -43%
Lippo Karawaci LPKR IJ N 690.00 769.93 1,862 24.3 22.1 1.7 - 1,061.8 -35%
Summarecon SMRA IJ N 1,090.00 1,300.00 876 25.1 18.8 3.2 0.9 1,855.2 -41%
Simple average 28.9 19.6 2.0 0.8 -42%
Malaysia
E&O EAST MK O 1.44 1.98 436 20.5 12.9 1.1 2.4 2.8 -49%
KLCC Property KLCC MK U 3.30 3.03 1,025 15.0 13.2 0.5 4.5 5.2 -37%
Mah Sing MSGB MK O 2.22 3.30 614 12.3 9.9 1.8 4.1 2.6 -13%
SP Setia SPSB MK O 3.75 5.37 2,217 23.7 19.1 2.0 4.0 4.2 -10%
UOAD UOAD MK O 2.09 3.25 831 10.1 8.4 1.5 5.4 2.7 -23%
Simple average 16.7 12.6 1.6 4.0 (0.2)
Thailand
Asian Property AP TB O 5.75 6.90 542 8.1 6.6 1.4 4.9 - NA
LPN LPN TB O 11.00 13.80 543 7.8 6.8 2.2 6.4 - NA
Land And Houses LH TB TB 6.85 8.40 2,297 26.9 20.7 2.4 6.4 - NA
Pruksa Real Estate PS TB O 20.30 27.10 1,499 10.2 8.2 2.4 3.4 - NA
Quality Houses QH TB U 1.86 2.11 527 11.2 9.0 1.1 6.2 - NA
SPALI SPALI TB O 12.20 16.80 700 6.7 5.8 1.8 6.6 - NA
Simple average 11.8 9.5 1.9 5.7 -
Source: Company, CIMB estimates
[ 5 ]
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[ 6 ]
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RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK #1 *
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
OUTPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12
months.
NEUTRAL: The stock's total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a relevant NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
benchmark's total return. expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next
12 months.
UNDERPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12
months.
TRADING BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3
months.
TRADING SELL: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3
months.
* This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand and Jakarta Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be
temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
CIMB Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)
[ 7 ]
8. RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK #2 **
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
OUTPERFORM: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
12 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or
better over the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has
12 months. either (i) an equal number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of
+15% (or better) or -15% (or worse), or (ii) stocks that are predominantly
expected to have total returns that will range from +15% to -15%; both over the
next 12 months.
UNDERPERFORM: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
next 12 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or
worse over the next 12 months.
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 3 TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or
better over the next 3 months.
TRADING SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
3 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or
worse over the next 3 months.
** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the
prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
[ 8 ]