This document discusses the potential for the UK to achieve an "energy efficiency revolution" through innovations that improve energy efficiency. It notes that innovations emerge first in niche applications and are driven to wider diffusion through factors like economies of scale, learning effects, and the development of supportive policies, regulations, and infrastructure. The document also presents frameworks for analyzing socio-technical systems and their transitions over time under different trends and innovations. It raises questions about whether efficiency gains may be offset by increased energy usage in other areas in a phenomenon known as the "rebound effect."

1. Can the UK achieve an
‘energy efficiency
revolution’?
All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group
London, 12th June 2014

2. Centre on Innovation and
Energy Demand (CIED)
Steve Sorrell
All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group
London, 12th June 2014

3. CIED
• One of six RCUK Centres on End Use
Energy Demand (EUED)
• 5-year, £3.5m programme involving 12
researchers & 5 PhDs from Sussex,
Manchester & Oxford
• Themes: emergence, diffusion and impact
of low energy innovations
• Multiple projects on specific topics – urban
transport, non-domestic buildings, ESCOs,
rebounds, district heating, policy mix,
• Interdisciplinary and policy relevant

4. Engineering - techno-
economic potential
Social psychology – behavioural
determinants, sustainable consumption
Economics – barriers,
incentives,
information
Different approaches to
improving energy efficiency
Adoption versus innovation
Incremental versus radical
Technology versus system
Short term versus long term
Local versus global

5. Innovations Emerge in niche applications that facilitate improvements and cost
reductions. Diffusion is driven by positive feedbacks (scale/learning
economies, decreasing uncertainty, network effects), reinforced by co-evolving
skills, institutions, interests, infrastructures, regulations, norms etc.
Emergence and diffusion
Government
Business
Consumers
Policy Interventions
Investors
Investments
Commer-
cial
Supported
commer-
cial
-
Pre com-
mercial
Demon-
stration
R&D
Product/ Technology Push
Market Pull
Academia

6. Socio-technicalsystem
fortransportation
Cultureandsymbolic
meaning(e.g.
Freedom,individuality)
Regulationsandpolicies
(e.g.trafficrules,parkingfees,
emissionstandards,cartax)
Roadinfrastructure
andtrafficsystem
(e.g.lights,signs)
Vehicle(artefact)
Marketsanduserpractices
(mobilitypatterns,driver
preferences)
Industrystructure
(e.g.carmanufacturers,
suppliers)
Maintenanceand
distributionnetwork
(e.g.repairshops,dealers)
Fuelinfrastructure
(oilcompanies,
petrolstations)
Socio-technical system
for transportation
Culture and symbolic
meaning (e.g.
Freedom, individuality)
Regulations and policies
(e.g. traffic rules,parking fees,
emission standards, car tax)
Road infrastructure
and traffic system
(e.g. lights, signs)
Vehicle (artefact)
Markets and user practices
(mobility patterns, driver
preferences)
Industry structure
(e.g. car manufacturers,
suppliers)
Maintenance and
distribution network
(e.g. repair shops, dealers)
Fuel infrastructure
(oil companies,
petrol stations)
Socio-technical systems

7. Innovations
Future
transport
system
Trends and events
Current
transport
system
Oil depletion ICT and smart grids
Urban mass transit
Lithium ion batteries
Hybrid drivetrains
Battery electric vehicles
Car
dependent
Oil
intensive
Congested
Climate
change
(Sustainable)
Low energy
Low carbon
Integrated
Shared
System transitions
Adapted from Geels

8. Lower
running
costs
Driver further and
more often
Lower
gasoline
bills
Holiday
in Spain
Less energy
More energy
Infrastructural
investment
Changed
living and
working
arrangements
Direct
Indirect
Transformational
More energy
Embodied
Savings
(in bigger & more powerful cars)
System impacts

9. IPCC 5th AR 2014
An energy efficiency
revolution?