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Choice of Development Path and Development Strategy of Cambodia
1. Forum organized by Klaeng Panya Institute for National Strategies, College of
Government of Rangsit University, NIIS, CASS and IDIS. Bangkok, 04 July, 2018.
Neak Chandarith
Department of International Studies
Cambodia 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Research Center
Royal University of Phnom Penh
2. 1. From where?
2. Where we are up to?
3. To where next?
4. Conclusion
4. 1. Before Angkor
2. During Angkor
3. After Angkor
4. During the French Colonialism
ďAlmost wiped out
ďRescued by the French
ďFrench Colonial exploitation
5. 5. Sangkum Reah Niyum
o Restoring a nation
6. Lon Nol Regime
o Wars
7. Khmer Rouge Regime
⌠Total Destruction
⌠Genocide
8. Peopleâs Republic of Kampuchea/State of Cambodia
⌠Restoration
⌠Starting from scratch
⌠Political and economic sanctions
⌠Rehabilitation
9. Second Kingdom
6. Prior to Second Kingdom Second Kingdom
Political System
⢠Autocracy ⢠Democracy/constitutional monarch
⢠Patronage ⢠Human Rights, Individual Rights
Economic System
⢠Feudalism ⢠Market Economy - Capitalism
⢠Planning Economy ⢠Private Ownership
⢠Agrarian ⢠Some diversified economy
Social Conditions
⢠Majority farmers Decreasing number of farmers, increasing middle class
Increase basic education but with low quality
Limited social services
⢠Basic education
⢠Basic social services
Social Values
⢠History, culture ⢠History, culture
⢠Religion ⢠Religion=> decrease
⢠Family community ⢠family, community => decrease
⢠Nationalism?
7. Human Resourcesááááśááááťááá
Institutionsááááś ááá
Economic and Social Infrastructures á áááááś áá ááśáááááááá áááááśááˇá á ááˇáááááá
Social Norms/Thinking áááááááááˇá
⢠Social values (society)ááťáááááá (ááááá)
⢠Individual values ááťáááá (ááťááá)
23. ď˝ The world is under four major trends ááˇááá ááśá ááśááˇá ááááá˘áśáááťá¸áááśáˇáá á á ááááśáááˇááśá ááśáááááááá áááááá ááá˝á á¤á
1. Multipolar world áááťáááśáźááááááˇááá ááśá
ď The Rise of Chinaááśáá áážáá ážáááááááááá áááááá áˇá
ď Relative Decline of Japanááśáááśá ááá áťáťáá áááááááááá áááááááááśáťá
ď Competition between China and the USAááśáááááá˝ááááááááááśááááááááśá˘áśá áááˇá ááˇááááá áááááá áˇá
ď Europe, Brexit and Russianáááááááá˘áşááťá, Brexit, ááťááááťá¸
2. Asian centric growth of world economyá˘áśáááťá¸ááááťáááśá áááśáááááá áááá áážáá áááááśááˇá á
ď New Normal
ď Global Rebalancing
3 Transition of Industry 3.0 to 4.0á˘áááááśááá¸á§áááśáááá áŁ,á á á á§áááśáááá á¤,á
4. Climate Changeááśááááááááá˝áá˘áśááśááááśááť
ď˝ á ááááááááśáááá
ď ááááááá áááá
ď ááťáááááá
23
3. Where to next?
31. 31
3. Where to next?
ď˝ Long term aspiration ááśááááááááááá áááá ááááá
ď˝ Visionary policiesááśááááááá ááááśáá ááśááá ááááááá ááááá
ď˝ 2030 Milestoneááááááá á á˘á áŁá ááśáá áááá áá á
ď˝ Analysis on contexts, trends, opportunities, threats and challenges ááśááśááááˇááśá˘ááá¸áááˇááśáá, ááˇááśá ááśá, áąáááśáá áááááźá ááśááśáááááśáááááá, ááśáááááá
ď˝ Formulation of long term policies, macro strategies and monitoring systemsááśááśáá áááá ááááááá ááśááá ááá ááˇáááťáááááááááááááááááˇááááááś ááááźáááááśáááááá ááááá ááááááśááááááááá ááśá
ááááááˇáááśáááááá
ď˝ Determining Critical Factors, Trapping Factors, Breakthrough Factors
ď˝ Approachesáá áááá ááážá
⌠Top-down
⌠Bottom-up
⌠Scientific, Evidence-based Modelling
32. 1998 2018
3, 106 million USD GDP 24, 605 million USD
253 USD GDP Per Capita 1, 563 USD
14.7% Inflation 3.4%
53.2% Poverty Rate 13.5 %
800 million USD Exports 12, 123 million USD
390 million USD International Reserve 9, 494 million USD
15, 800 KHR/month Minimum Pension Per Person 480, 000 KHR/month
247 million USD Domestic Revenue 4,732 million USD
33. ď˝ What can be concluded:
1. A nation has risen with territorial unity and unified governance after suffering a near total wipe out and total destructionááá áážáá ážáááśáááááśááśááˇáá˝á
áááááááááŻáááśááááášáááḠáŻáááśáááááśá˘áááśá áááśáś áááá¸ááášááááááśáááááá¸ááááááḠááˇááá ááśá, á ááśáťááá¸ááśáááášáááá¸ááááźááááá˝áááźá
2. Undertaking a national building with its identityááááťááááťááááá áážáááśá ááśáááááááááááśááśááˇ, á˘áááááááá
3. Overall development are positive though with some shortcomings, remaining challenges and legacies of transition from one system to
anotherááśáá˘ááˇáááá ááśááááźá á áááááááááááˇáááááá á ááśáťááá¸ááááááááťáááááťá, ááśááááťáááśááááťá, á á á ááááááááááśááááááááá, áááááˇáááá¸ááśááááá áááááźáááááááá
4. Could have done better?
Conclusion áááááˇááááś á