1. The US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2014, driven by strong growth in consumer spending. 2. The unemployment rate fell to 5.5% in February 2015, near the Federal Reserve's estimate of full employment, however labor force participation remains low at 62.8%. 3. Hiring continued at a strong pace in February with 295,000 new jobs added, however wage growth remained slow at 2% annually and temporary employment declined.

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ECONOMIC UPDATE
March 2015
Mark Landwer
Vice President of Operations

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4th Qtr. GDP: 2.2% (Second Estimate)
SUMMARY & GDP
Sources: Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Takeaways from the Employment Report (Wall Street Journal)
2013 2014
Components
of GDP 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Consumers
2.45% 1.23% 1.39% 2.51% 0.83% 1.75% 2.21% 2.83%(Personal
Consumption)
*Businesses
1.12% 1.03% 2.50% 0.62% -1.13% 2.87% 1.18% 0.84%(Gross Private
Domestic
Investment)
Net Exports
-0.08% -0.54% 0.59% 1.08% -1.66% -0.34% 0.78% -1.15%(Exports-
Imports)
Government -0.75% 0.04% 0.04% -0.71% -0.15% 0.31% 0.80% -0.32%
Total GDP 2.74% 1.76% 4.52% 3.50% -2.11% 4.59% 4.97% 2.20%
*Inventories
0.70% 0.30% 1.49% -0.34% -1.16% 1.42% -0.03% 0.12%component
of Business
1. Hiring Shows Momentum
First the good news: Nonfarm payrolls increased 295,000 in February, continuing a 12-month
string of monthly job gains in excess of 200,000. The pace of hiring is picking up, as evidenced by
the rising six-month average on payroll increases.
2. Full Employment? Maybe Not
A notable drop in the February unemployment rate to 5.5% made for the lowest reading since
May 2008—on the upper edge of the Federal Reserve’s estimate of full employment. But here’s
another number to keep in mind: 66.1%. That was the share of working-age adults who were
employed or looking for work in May 2008. The February labor-force participation rate was only
62.8%, down from 62.9% in January. That means millions of adults have exited the workforce,
suggesting the economy has more slack in labor markets than the 5.5% jobless rate shows.
3. Wage Growth In a Rut
The big disappointment in the report was the inability of wage growth to break out of its 2%
yearly pace. Indeed, wage growth for all private employees and production workers slowed in
February from January. Bigger pay raises remain the missing piece of a healthy labor market
picture.
4. Downshift in Factory Hiring
Manufacturing payrolls increased by just 8,000 in February, down from the average job gain of
18,000 of the past 12 months. The Labor Department said a strike in the petroleum and coal
product sector meant a loss of 6,000 factory jobs last month. Another reason for the low number
was a downshift in hiring at motor vehicle and parts makers. While a small part of the factory
sector, the swing in auto employment accounts for a large part of the volatility in manufacturing
payrolls. If consumers slow their auto purchases, hiring at automakers will slow as well.
5. Misery in the Oil Patch
The energy sector continued to feel the pain of falling oil prices. Oil and gas extractors laid off
nearly 3,000 workers in January and February. Industries that support the mining sector have
done away with 11,000 positions in the same two months. More pain is on the way: A tally of job
cut announcements done by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas found the energy
sector accounted for one-third of the layoffs announced in February.

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Unemployment Rate: 5.5% -0.2%
Number of people employed as a temporary employee
divided by total non farm payroll employment
Temp Employment
Temporary help services lost -7,800 jobs.
Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important?
“Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for
Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead
nonfarm employment by three months when the
economy is emerging from a recession and by six
months during periods of normal economic growth.”
American Staffing Association
US EMPLOYMENT SITUATION
Temp Penetration Rate: 2.01% -0.01% Job Loss/Gain: +295,000 Jobs
I
Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or higher
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
3.0% 3.2% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7%
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association
Nonfarm Payroll –
Job Growth Details
Jobs
Added/Lost
Private Sector 288,000
Government Sector 7,000
Total 295,000
Job Gains
Change from
Previous Month
Leisure & Hospitality 66,000
Professional &
Business Services
51,000
Retail Trade 32,000
Construction 29,000
Financial Activities 10,000
Manufacturing 8,000
Government 7,000
Education & Health Services 54,000
- Education 21,300
- Healthcare 23,800
- Social Assistance 9,000

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GDP Projections
Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)
Wages & Job Types
Wall Street Journal
PROJECTIONS & LABOR METRICS
Sources: Wall Street Journal
Please note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report,
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/03/06/februarys-jobs-report-in-10-charts/
Unemployment Rate Projections
Survey of Economist (Wall Street Journal)