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- 1. Terrorist Groups Operating In Mali Likely To Experience Increased Funding from ISIL 18 January 2015 Claire Ellsworth Mercyhurst University Mali Map. Source: http://www.mmama.net/emap.html
- 2. Executive Summary Terrorist groups operating in Mali are likely to experience increased funding from ISIL in the next 12 to 24 months. • ISIL’s strong financial network likely to expand to Mali • ISIL and Malian operatives likely training in Libya together • Parisian terrorist is a Malian with allegiance to ISIL
- 3. ISIL’s strong financial network likely to expand to Mali • Five-year plan includes conquering Muslim world • Plan indicates that a partnership with Malian groups logical • ISIL’s financial network is diversified and therefore relatively stable
- 4. ISIL 5-Year Plan ISIL Five Year Territorial Plan. Source: http://tinyurl.com/q7lr2ns
- 5. ISIL and Malian operatives likely training in Libya together • Libya source for Malian terrorists’ weapons • Malian terrorists pushed to Libya, now host to terrorist training camps • ISIL and Malian terrorists train at same camps in Libya ISIL Training camp in Libya. Source: http://tinyurl.com/na6seky
- 6. Parisian terrorist was a Malian with allegiance to ISIL • Amedi Coulibaly posted a video pledging allegiance to ISIL • Told hostages he ‘belong[ed] to the Islamic State’ • In both instances, identified himself as Malian first Amedi Coulibaly. Source: http://tinyurl.com/m7cfunp
- 7. Analytic Confidence • Analytic Confidence: High • Analyst corroborated sources • Sources are numerous and reliable • Medium to high subject matter expertise • Worked alone • Medium subject complexity • Time to complete: sufficient
- 9. References • http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2674736/ISIS-militants-declare- formation-caliphate-Syria-Iraq-demand-Muslims-world-swear-allegiance.html http://pamelageller.com/2014/06/islamic-state-map-world-militants-outline- chilling-five-year-plan-global-domination-declare-formation-caliphate.html • http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/11052919/How- Isil-is-funded-trained-and-operating-in-Iraq-and-Syria.html • http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/10/the-new-terrorist- training-ground/309446/ • http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=68667 • http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/isis-sets-training-camps-libya-u-s- army-gen-david-n261336 • http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=68667 • http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11338159/Paris- attacks-video-emerges-of-Amedy-Coulibaly-pledging-allegiance-to-Isil.html • http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2903950/First-chilling-image-shows- murdered-hostage-dramatic-standoff-ends-deaths-terororist-four-captives.html
Editor's Notes
- Good morning, my name is Claire Ellsworth. I am an intelligence analyst at Mercyhurst University working on Cross-Border Terrorism Financing and Training in Mali. I would like a few minutes of your time to present to you my Short Form Analytic Report on the likelihood of terrorist groups operating in Mali to experience increased funding from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. This group will hereafter be referred to as ISIL. All information contained in this presentation is unclassified and all sources of information have been evaluated as reliable.
- Malian terrorist groups are likely to experience increased funding in the next 12 to 24 months due to a link between ISIL and Malian terrorist groups. ISIL’s strong financial network will likely support expanded terrorist operations in Mali. ISIL also likely training operatives in southern Libya alongside Malian terrorists. Additionally, Parisian terrorist operative, Amedi Coulibaly, is Malian and pledged allegiance to ISIL, further indicating a likely connection between Mali and ISIL.
- My first piece of evidence is that ISIL’s strong financial network is likely to expand into Mali. In June of 2014, ISIL revealed its five-year plan, which includes conquering the Muslim world, the Sahara, the Sahel, Central Africa, the Balkans, the Middle East, South Asia, Portugal and Spain. This plan indicates that a partnership with Malian terrorist groups would be logical relationships for ISIL to form. Mali is in the heart of desired territory and is particularly susceptible due to having one of the weakest governments in the regions. ISIL’s financial network includes drug and human trafficking, oil revenue, kidnapping-for-ransom and money from sympathizers. This diversified and relatively stable financial network could obtain a strong foothold in this territory that currently has minimal oversight and little territorial control.
- Pictured is ISIL’s five year plan it released in June of 2014. Were this plan to come to fruition, Mali would be located in the heart of the Maghreb region.
- Next, ISIL and Malian terrorist operatives are likely training in Libya together. Libya has been the source for Malian terrorists’ weapons since early 2013, when the demand increased due to the french military intervention in Mali which began in 2012. That intervention pushed Malian terrorist groups into southern Libya, a largely ungoverned region since Muammar Gadhaffi was deposed in late 2011. Reports indicate that ISIL operatives and Malian operatives are training at the same camps in southern Libya. This lays the foundation for an amicable relationship between the groups, falling in line with ISIL’s designs on the African continent.
- Lastly, Amedi Coulibaly, the Parisian terrorist who killed a french police officer and four people at a jewish kosher market on January 9, 2015, posted a video shortly before he attacked the market identifying himself as a Malian pledging his allegiance to ISIL, justifying why he needed to attack people. Additionally, during the hostage situation, he justified his actions to the hostages, stating he was Malian and ‘belong[ed] to the Islamic State’ *The Islamic State is the name that ISIL prefersto be called. It is important to note that in both instances Coulibaly identified himself as a Malian first. While there could be many reasons for his statements, it is logical to assume that he considered his identity as a Malian to support his allegiance to ISIL. This indicates that there may be other Malians who consider the goal of ISIL to support their goals and national identity.
- My analytic confidence in this product is high. I corroborated my sources which were numerous and largely reliable. I have moderate subject matter expertise on Mali, however I have high subject matter expertise on religious extremist terrorist activity. I worked alone, the subject is of medium complexity and I had sufficient time to complete.
- Thank you for your attention. Do you have any questions at this time? If any further matters or questions arise, please contact me at the displayed email address. Thank you again.