The document analyzes the impact of climate change on farm productivity and income through bioeconomic models, revealing significant productivity and income losses for both irrigated and rainfed crops. It indicates that productivity losses can range from 15-20% in the near term to 35-55% in the long run, with income losses projected between 5-20% and 45-70%, respectively. The findings suggest that irrigation can mitigate some negative effects of climate change, particularly for a 1°C increase in temperature.

1. Simulating the Impact of Climate
Change and Adaptation
Strategies on Farm
Productivity and Income:
A Bioeconomic Analysis
Presented by:
Ismael Fofana
International Food Policy
Research Institute - Dakar
www.agrodep.org
AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Climate Change
Analysis
June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal
Please check the latest version of this presentation on:
http://www.agrodep.org/first-annual-workshop

2. Simulating the Impact
of Climate Change and
Adaptation Strategies
on Farm Productivity
and Income: A
Bioeconomic Analysis
Ismaël Fofana
International Food Policy
Research Institute
West and Central Africa
Dakar, Senegal

3. 1.
1 Issue and objective
2. Methodology
- Biophysical Model
- Economic Model
- Climate Scenarios
3. Results

4. 1. Issue and objective
• Our
O r climate is changing more and more
changing;
evidences on rising temperature, sea-levels,
frequency and severity of droughts and floods …
floods,
• Agricultural
A i lt l sector i hi hl climate sensitive
t is highly li t iti
• Climate defines production areas for crops
• Climate’s effect on yield is important

5. 1. Issue and objective (cont.)
Objective
• Better understand the impact of climate change
on farmers and agricultural p
g production
• Help to properly anticipate and adapt farming to
optimize food production
• Analysis at the farm level is a crucial step before
moving into a large and general analysis

6. 2. Methodology (cont.)
S
Scenarios on changes i
i h in
temperature, precipitation, & CO2
Gross Profit
Margin
6 Future
Climate
Scenarios
S i
Farm
Econ. Model Biophysical
(Linear optimization) Model
(CropSyst)
Fixed
Prices Crop yields
Inputs use
Price taking
assumption

7. CropSyst or Cropping Systems Simulation Model
LOCATION
 WEATHER
 Storms
 Evapotranspiration
 Freezing climates
 Wind
CROP
 Classification
 Planting
 Growth
 Morphology MANAGEMENT
 Phenology  Harvest
 Vernalization  Irrigation
 Photoperiod  Clipping
 Harvest  Nitrogen
g
 Residue  Conservation
 Nitrogen  Tillage
 Salinity
 CO2
 Dormancy
SOIL
 Leaching
 Runoff
 RUSLE
 Volatilization
 Texture
 Hydraulics

8. CropSyst (cont.)
Crop growth

9. CropSyst (cont.)
Soil texture

10. CropSyst (cont.)
Evapotranspiration model

11. CropSyst (cont.)
Irrigation

12. CropSyst (cont.)
Hard wheat
(RL 39% + IL 16%)
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
Fodder
barley SIMULATION CONTROLE
(RL 2%) Rotation Soft wheat
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
Soil profile (RL 4%)
Residue [Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
Nitrogen
Runoff
Fava beans
CO2
(RL 2%)
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
Validation
Oat hay
Chi k
Chickpeas (IL 8%)
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
(RL 1%)
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]

13. CropSyst (cont.)
Simulation
Sim lation controle

14. CropSyst (cont.)
Crop and management rotation table

15. CropSyst (cont.)
Atmospheric CO2

16. CropSyst (cont.)
Runtime graphic display
u t e g ap c d sp ay
Atmospheric conditions graph
• Average daily temperature
• Actual evapotranspiration
Growth • Potential evapotranspiration
stage • Precipitation Atmospheric conditions graph
graph • Runoff • Plant height
• Actual transpiration • Biomass
• Potential transpiration • Leaf area index
• Green area index
• Total stress
• Nitrogen stress
• Light stress
g
• Water stress
Harvest
• Temperature stress
Totals
Display Plant
Pl t Plant Available
Pl t A il bl
Available Nitrogen graph
Water graph [ammonium & nitrate]

17. Validation
Real yield Simulated yield
50
45
40
35
Calibration results
Yield (ton/ha)
30
25
for irrigated hard
g
20
15 wheat
10
5
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Years
Real yield
Real yield Simulated yield
Simulated yield
60
50
Calibration results
/ha)
40
Yield (ton/
for rainfed hard 30
wheat 20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Year

18. No modeling of:
• Tree crops
• Weeds
W d
• Diseases
• Pests
• Grassland
• Livestock
• Physical damage (soil)
• Plant characteristics
• Intercropping system
• Food quality
q y

19. Crop Development Models (incomplete list)
International
I i l
Decision Support System for Consortium for http://www.icasa.ne
DSSAT
Agrotechnology Transfer Agricultural Systems t/dssat
Applications
The Commonwealth
Agricultural Production Scientific and http://www.apsim.in
APSIM
Systems Simulator Industrial Research fo
Organization
Cropping Systems Washington State http://www.bsye.
CropSyst
Simulation Model University wsu.edu/cropsyst
wsu edu/cropsyst
United States
Erosion Productivity Impact http://epicapex.brc.
EPIC Department of
Calculator tamus.edu
Agriculture
http://wwww.fao.or
Aquacrop crop water productivity model FAO
g
Wageningen http://www.wofost.
http://www wofost
WOFOST WOrld FOod STudies
University wur.nl

20. Economic Model
Objective
   
max     c , m  Tc , m  with  c , m    y c , m , j  pc , j     qc , m , i  pc , i 
L
c ,m
 j   i 
Constraints
Soil occupation:  Tc,m  T S
c m
min5 years max5 years
Rotation: Scc,mi  Scf ,mi and S c  Sc  S c
Water:  Wc ,t  Wt s
c
Surface allocated to barley fodder compensated for the
Animal food:
change in supplies of animal food (stubbles)

21. Assumptions (cont.)
• Rational decision making with gross margins the
only variable influencing surface allocation
• Fixed products and factor prices (price taker)
• No constraint on the farm’s access to other
productive factors e g labor and capital
factors, e.g.
• Water supply mostly comes from surface water
and its availability is proportionally affected by the
change in rainfall
g

22. Climate Change Scenarios
Change in daily temperature
CO2 Change in
concentration daily
precipitation +1°C
C +2°C
C +3°C
3C
-10% Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 5
700 ppm
-20% Scenario 2 Scenario 4 Scenario 6

23. 2. Methodology (cont.)
A
Assumption on changes i
ti h in
temperature, precipitation, & CO2
Gross Profit
Margin
6 Future
Climate
Scenarios
S i
Farm
Econ. Model Biophysical
(Linear optimization) Model
(CropSyst)
Fixed
Prices Crop yields
Inputs use
Price taking
Assumption

24. 2. Methodology
GHG
Emissions
Global/Regional Future
Climate
Circulation Models Scenarios
5
Future
Climate
Scenarios
Micro- Biophysical
Behavioral Model
Model
Crop yields
Inputs use
Prices GHG emissions
2
4
Multi-Sectoral
Partial/General Crop yields
Inputs use
Pi
Prices
Equilibrium GHG emissions
Model

25. 3. Results
Productivity effects (%)
Productivity loss:15 to
20% in the near-term; 35
to 55% in the long run
Income effects (%)
Income loss: 5 to 20% in
the near-term; 45 to 70%
in the long run

26. 3. Results (cont.)
Yield of rainfed hard wheat (%) Yield of irrigated hard wheat (%)
• Irrigated crops less affected than rainfed crops
(with 10 percentage points of productivity gap)
• Precipitation-induced
Precipitation induced productivity gap lessens as
the climate warms up

27. 3. Results (cont.)
Yield of irrigated oat hay ( )
g y (%) Yield of irrigated hard wheat ( )
g (%)
Yield of rainfed fava beans (%) Yield of rained fodder barley (%)

28. 3. Results (cont.)
Hard wheat yield (tons/ha)
Compensation
for the negative
effects of
climate change
li t h
through
irrigation is
Percentage variation of hard wheat yield (%) worthwhile only
for a 1°C
increase in
temperature

29. Summary
1.
1 Yield loss: 1oC 15 20% ; 2oC to 3oC
15-20% 35 55%
35-55%
2. Rev.
2 Rev loss: 1oC 5-20% ; 2oC to 3oC
5 20% 45-70%
45 70%
3. Irrigated crops less affected than rainfed crops
g p p
4. Precipitation-induced productivity gap lessen as
p p yg p
the climate warms up
5. Some crops less affected than others
6. Irrigation, as an adaptation strategy, i worthwhile
6 I i ti d t ti t t is th hil
only for a 1°C increase in temperature

30. Thank you for your attention
More information at
www.ifpri.org
www.agrodep.org
g p g