This document outlines Anna Cathey's dissertation research on hydro-ecologic modeling in the Okavango River Basin. Her objectives are to: 1) conduct an uncertainty analysis of the Okavango Delta hydrologic model; 2) develop a fish population model driven by the flood pulse; 3) perform an uncertainty analysis of the Pitman rainfall-runoff model in the Okavango Basin; and 4) integrate the models into a linked Okavango modeling environment. She will apply global sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis techniques to evaluate parameter importance and model output uncertainty. The research will provide insights into key hydrologic processes and support water resource management under changing conditions.
Multiple stress of eutrophication and climate change in lakes: projected ef...Jannicke Moe
The aim of this study is to assess the impact of nutrients in combination with climatic stressors on lakes in Northern Europe based on phytoplankton indicators, under current and future conditions. Eutrophication and climate change are considered an important stressor combination for lakes in most parts of the world. High concentrations of total phosphorus (TP) in combination with increased temperature tend to benefit growth of phytoplankton, and in particular cyanobacteria, which can result in harmful algal blooms. In this study, we used monitoring data from ca. 800 lakes in United Kingdom, Norway, Sweden and Finland (in total ca. 2000 lake-years). The data were compiled during the past EU project WISER and are being modelled in the on-going EU project MARS (2014-2018).
The first step was to quantify the empirical relationships between phytoplankton indicators (cyanobacteria, biomass and the Phytoplankton Trophic Index), nutrients (primarily TP) and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation and wind) and other lake characteristics (including typology factors such as mean depth, surface area, altitude, alkalinity and humic level). A hierarchical regression model was used account for lake types and for repeated measurements from lakes (lake-years). Following the conceptual model DPSIR (driver-pressure-state-impact-response), we also attempted to link the nutrient concentrations to drivers (population density and land use) and pressures (nutrient loads).
The second step was to construct a parametric model constructed based on the quantified relationships. The purpose of this model was to predict the ecological status of the lakes based phytoplankton indicators under different future scenarios of climate and potentially land use. Preliminary assessment by this model has indicated the risk of cyanobacteria concentrations exceeding an acceptable limit increases with higher temperature but decreases slightly with more precipitation. In the current assessment, more realistic future scenarios will be applied for each individual lake. Here we use future projections for climate and land use for the years 2030 and 2060, which are generated on a 0.5 degrees grid for all of Europe. The projections are based on the 3 storylines defined by the MARS project ("Techno world", "Consensus world", "Fragmented world"), which combine different climatic and socio-economic scenarios.
Presentation given by Anna Rymszewicz, John O'Sullivan, Michael Bruen, Jonathan Turner, Elisabeth Conroy, Mary Kelly-Quinn & Damien Lawler at the SILTFLUX workshop, UCD, Dublin, February 2016
Multiple stress of eutrophication and climate change in lakes: projected ef...Jannicke Moe
The aim of this study is to assess the impact of nutrients in combination with climatic stressors on lakes in Northern Europe based on phytoplankton indicators, under current and future conditions. Eutrophication and climate change are considered an important stressor combination for lakes in most parts of the world. High concentrations of total phosphorus (TP) in combination with increased temperature tend to benefit growth of phytoplankton, and in particular cyanobacteria, which can result in harmful algal blooms. In this study, we used monitoring data from ca. 800 lakes in United Kingdom, Norway, Sweden and Finland (in total ca. 2000 lake-years). The data were compiled during the past EU project WISER and are being modelled in the on-going EU project MARS (2014-2018).
The first step was to quantify the empirical relationships between phytoplankton indicators (cyanobacteria, biomass and the Phytoplankton Trophic Index), nutrients (primarily TP) and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation and wind) and other lake characteristics (including typology factors such as mean depth, surface area, altitude, alkalinity and humic level). A hierarchical regression model was used account for lake types and for repeated measurements from lakes (lake-years). Following the conceptual model DPSIR (driver-pressure-state-impact-response), we also attempted to link the nutrient concentrations to drivers (population density and land use) and pressures (nutrient loads).
The second step was to construct a parametric model constructed based on the quantified relationships. The purpose of this model was to predict the ecological status of the lakes based phytoplankton indicators under different future scenarios of climate and potentially land use. Preliminary assessment by this model has indicated the risk of cyanobacteria concentrations exceeding an acceptable limit increases with higher temperature but decreases slightly with more precipitation. In the current assessment, more realistic future scenarios will be applied for each individual lake. Here we use future projections for climate and land use for the years 2030 and 2060, which are generated on a 0.5 degrees grid for all of Europe. The projections are based on the 3 storylines defined by the MARS project ("Techno world", "Consensus world", "Fragmented world"), which combine different climatic and socio-economic scenarios.
Presentation given by Anna Rymszewicz, John O'Sullivan, Michael Bruen, Jonathan Turner, Elisabeth Conroy, Mary Kelly-Quinn & Damien Lawler at the SILTFLUX workshop, UCD, Dublin, February 2016
Changes in benthic communities in the Middle Atlas springs (Morocco) and thei...Innspub Net
The sources of the Moroccan Middle Atlas suffer not only the effects of anthropogenic pressures, but also those of climate change whose impact is difficult to predict. Our goal is to better understand the succession of processions fauna of the upper Guigou. It is a compendium comparative between the benthic fauna collected towards the end of the years 70 (1979) in the sources Arbalou Abrchane, Tit Zil and the Wadi Guigou. As well as those harvested in the same sites, thirty-four years after. This revealed a significant drop in dissolved oxygen concentration decreased from 7.4 (mg/l) in 1979 to 2.52 (mg/l) in 2015. We have also raised an increase in the workload in chlorides and major elements. Benthic fauna, a significant change in population since 1979, with the appearance and installation of more than a dozen of taxa were identified (Simulium pseudoquinum, Gammarus gauthieri, Phagocata sp., Dugesia gonocephala). Some of these species have become invasive, such as Amphipod crustaceans Gammarus gauthieri, either very abundant as Simulium pseudoquinum. We note the effect “medium” for the direct selection of the species. Other indirect effects due to the reduction of the three dimensional biogenic structures would have limited recognizably State niches by polluo-sensitive species (Ephemeroptera, Heteroptera, Coleoptera and Trichoptera) and could contribute to the total disappearance of all order plecoptera in favour of a dominance of the polluo-tolerant species (Oligochaetes). Over a period of 35 years, there is a deterioration of the health of the aquatic ecosystem studied, a State of art reflected by a decline of the benthic community that lives there.
Presentation given at the 2nd SILTFLUX workshop on 19/05/2015 at UCD. Authors: Elizabeth Conroy, Jonathan Turner, Michael Bruen, John O'Sullivan, Anna Rymszewicz, Mary Kelly-Quinn
Presentation given at the 2nd SILTFLUX workshop on 19/05/2015 at UCD. Authors: Michael Bruen, Mary Kelly-Quinn, John O'Sullivan, Jonathan Turner, Elizabeth Conroy, Anna Rymszewicz, Damian Lawler, John Wallace
Key lecture for the EURO-BASIN Training Workshop on Introduction to Statistical Modelling for Habitat Model Development, 26-28 Oct, AZTI-Tecnalia, Pasaia, Spain (www.euro-basin.eu)
Changes in benthic communities in the Middle Atlas springs (Morocco) and thei...Innspub Net
The sources of the Moroccan Middle Atlas suffer not only the effects of anthropogenic pressures, but also those of climate change whose impact is difficult to predict. Our goal is to better understand the succession of processions fauna of the upper Guigou. It is a compendium comparative between the benthic fauna collected towards the end of the years 70 (1979) in the sources Arbalou Abrchane, Tit Zil and the Wadi Guigou. As well as those harvested in the same sites, thirty-four years after. This revealed a significant drop in dissolved oxygen concentration decreased from 7.4 (mg/l) in 1979 to 2.52 (mg/l) in 2015. We have also raised an increase in the workload in chlorides and major elements. Benthic fauna, a significant change in population since 1979, with the appearance and installation of more than a dozen of taxa were identified (Simulium pseudoquinum, Gammarus gauthieri, Phagocata sp., Dugesia gonocephala). Some of these species have become invasive, such as Amphipod crustaceans Gammarus gauthieri, either very abundant as Simulium pseudoquinum. We note the effect “medium” for the direct selection of the species. Other indirect effects due to the reduction of the three dimensional biogenic structures would have limited recognizably State niches by polluo-sensitive species (Ephemeroptera, Heteroptera, Coleoptera and Trichoptera) and could contribute to the total disappearance of all order plecoptera in favour of a dominance of the polluo-tolerant species (Oligochaetes). Over a period of 35 years, there is a deterioration of the health of the aquatic ecosystem studied, a State of art reflected by a decline of the benthic community that lives there.
Presentation given at the 2nd SILTFLUX workshop on 19/05/2015 at UCD. Authors: Elizabeth Conroy, Jonathan Turner, Michael Bruen, John O'Sullivan, Anna Rymszewicz, Mary Kelly-Quinn
Presentation given at the 2nd SILTFLUX workshop on 19/05/2015 at UCD. Authors: Michael Bruen, Mary Kelly-Quinn, John O'Sullivan, Jonathan Turner, Elizabeth Conroy, Anna Rymszewicz, Damian Lawler, John Wallace
Key lecture for the EURO-BASIN Training Workshop on Introduction to Statistical Modelling for Habitat Model Development, 26-28 Oct, AZTI-Tecnalia, Pasaia, Spain (www.euro-basin.eu)
This presentation explains how to use social media in the health care industry effectively and the finer elements and available opportunities using Facebook and Twitter, specifically.
En esta tesis se estudian los efectos del estrés de origen natural y humano en los ecosistemas, usando macroinvertebrados y productores primarios de ríos como organismos modelo, y la salinidad del río y la intensificación de los usos del suelo en la cuenca como indicadores de estrés de origen natural y humano, respectivamente.
This thesis analyses the effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors on ecosystems using stream macroinvertebrates and primary producers as model organisms, and water salinity and land-use intensification as examples of natural and anthropogenic stressors, respectively.
SWaRMA_IRBM_Module2_#4, Water ecosystem interaction, Susan CuddyICIMOD
This presentation is the part of 12-day (28 January–8 February 2019) training workshop on “Multi-scale Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM) from the Hindu Kush Himalayan Perspective” organized by the Strengthening Water Resources Management in Afghanistan (SWaRMA) Initiative of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), and targeted at participants from Afghanistan.
Interface change of seawater and freshwater on Asam – Asam Watersheds, South ...Innspub Net
Temporal change of seawater and fresh water interface in the watershed area needs scientific study on dynamics of ecosystem parameters in different seasons and analysis of satellite imagery. This research aims to assess the change of interface seawater and freshwater from the temporal estuary upstream. The study used four methods: (1) Interviews with local community respondents; determined with snowball method. (2) Secondary data obtained from the Report of Environmental Monitoring Result of Power Plant Operations of Asam – Asam in 2014 (3) Observed parameters include pH, salinity, electrical conductivity in the dry season (August), transition (October) and rainy season (December). (4) Temporal observations with the use of satellite imagery analysis with Nipah (Nypa fruticans Wurmb) as indicator. According to the respondent, seawater intrusion has occurred extremely from the estuary of Asam-Asam river to the upstream. Secondary data shows significant differences in the intake value of DHL Asam-Asam power plant (546 μ mhos/cm) with upstream intake (231 μ mhos/cm) which means the intrusion of sea water is moderate to high level. Field observations show the dry season (August 2013) interface was 12.86 miles from the estuary, whereas in transitional season (October 2013) was 12.53 miles from estuary, and rainy season (December 2013) is 5.24 km from the estuary. Satellite imagery showed the interface in 1991 was 8.13 miles from the estuary and increase upstream from 0.03 to 1.86 per year. In 2014, the interface becomes 12.88 miles from the estuary. This shows that the sea water increasingly moving toward the river. Get more articles at: http://www.innspub.net/volume-6-number-4-april-2015-jbes/
This work has sought to answer how global environmental change affects the concentration of nutrients in Mediterranean rivers. By means of a modeling effort using data collected by water agencies, this work has contributed to the knowledge of the relevant factors that drive nutrient dynamics in Mediterranean rivers, and how these change in time and space. Furthermore, it has clearly shown the potential modeling and time-series analysis offer to river scientists and managers.
Sudheer Mechineni, Head of Application Frameworks, Standard Chartered Bank
Discover how Standard Chartered Bank harnessed the power of Neo4j to transform complex data access challenges into a dynamic, scalable graph database solution. This keynote will cover their journey from initial adoption to deploying a fully automated, enterprise-grade causal cluster, highlighting key strategies for modelling organisational changes and ensuring robust disaster recovery. Learn how these innovations have not only enhanced Standard Chartered Bank’s data infrastructure but also positioned them as pioneers in the banking sector’s adoption of graph technology.
Securing your Kubernetes cluster_ a step-by-step guide to success !KatiaHIMEUR1
Today, after several years of existence, an extremely active community and an ultra-dynamic ecosystem, Kubernetes has established itself as the de facto standard in container orchestration. Thanks to a wide range of managed services, it has never been so easy to set up a ready-to-use Kubernetes cluster.
However, this ease of use means that the subject of security in Kubernetes is often left for later, or even neglected. This exposes companies to significant risks.
In this talk, I'll show you step-by-step how to secure your Kubernetes cluster for greater peace of mind and reliability.
Alt. GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using ...James Anderson
Effective Application Security in Software Delivery lifecycle using Deployment Firewall and DBOM
The modern software delivery process (or the CI/CD process) includes many tools, distributed teams, open-source code, and cloud platforms. Constant focus on speed to release software to market, along with the traditional slow and manual security checks has caused gaps in continuous security as an important piece in the software supply chain. Today organizations feel more susceptible to external and internal cyber threats due to the vast attack surface in their applications supply chain and the lack of end-to-end governance and risk management.
The software team must secure its software delivery process to avoid vulnerability and security breaches. This needs to be achieved with existing tool chains and without extensive rework of the delivery processes. This talk will present strategies and techniques for providing visibility into the true risk of the existing vulnerabilities, preventing the introduction of security issues in the software, resolving vulnerabilities in production environments quickly, and capturing the deployment bill of materials (DBOM).
Speakers:
Bob Boule
Robert Boule is a technology enthusiast with PASSION for technology and making things work along with a knack for helping others understand how things work. He comes with around 20 years of solution engineering experience in application security, software continuous delivery, and SaaS platforms. He is known for his dynamic presentations in CI/CD and application security integrated in software delivery lifecycle.
Gopinath Rebala
Gopinath Rebala is the CTO of OpsMx, where he has overall responsibility for the machine learning and data processing architectures for Secure Software Delivery. Gopi also has a strong connection with our customers, leading design and architecture for strategic implementations. Gopi is a frequent speaker and well-known leader in continuous delivery and integrating security into software delivery.
GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...James Anderson
Effective Application Security in Software Delivery lifecycle using Deployment Firewall and DBOM
The modern software delivery process (or the CI/CD process) includes many tools, distributed teams, open-source code, and cloud platforms. Constant focus on speed to release software to market, along with the traditional slow and manual security checks has caused gaps in continuous security as an important piece in the software supply chain. Today organizations feel more susceptible to external and internal cyber threats due to the vast attack surface in their applications supply chain and the lack of end-to-end governance and risk management.
The software team must secure its software delivery process to avoid vulnerability and security breaches. This needs to be achieved with existing tool chains and without extensive rework of the delivery processes. This talk will present strategies and techniques for providing visibility into the true risk of the existing vulnerabilities, preventing the introduction of security issues in the software, resolving vulnerabilities in production environments quickly, and capturing the deployment bill of materials (DBOM).
Speakers:
Bob Boule
Robert Boule is a technology enthusiast with PASSION for technology and making things work along with a knack for helping others understand how things work. He comes with around 20 years of solution engineering experience in application security, software continuous delivery, and SaaS platforms. He is known for his dynamic presentations in CI/CD and application security integrated in software delivery lifecycle.
Gopinath Rebala
Gopinath Rebala is the CTO of OpsMx, where he has overall responsibility for the machine learning and data processing architectures for Secure Software Delivery. Gopi also has a strong connection with our customers, leading design and architecture for strategic implementations. Gopi is a frequent speaker and well-known leader in continuous delivery and integrating security into software delivery.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 5DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 5. In this session, we will cover CI/CD with devops.
Topics covered:
CI/CD with in UiPath
End-to-end overview of CI/CD pipeline with Azure devops
Speaker:
Lyndsey Byblow, Test Suite Sales Engineer @ UiPath, Inc.
Maruthi Prithivirajan, Head of ASEAN & IN Solution Architecture, Neo4j
Get an inside look at the latest Neo4j innovations that enable relationship-driven intelligence at scale. Learn more about the newest cloud integrations and product enhancements that make Neo4j an essential choice for developers building apps with interconnected data and generative AI.
GraphRAG is All You need? LLM & Knowledge GraphGuy Korland
Guy Korland, CEO and Co-founder of FalkorDB, will review two articles on the integration of language models with knowledge graphs.
1. Unifying Large Language Models and Knowledge Graphs: A Roadmap.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08302
2. Microsoft Research's GraphRAG paper and a review paper on various uses of knowledge graphs:
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/graphrag-unlocking-llm-discovery-on-narrative-private-data/
In his public lecture, Christian Timmerer provides insights into the fascinating history of video streaming, starting from its humble beginnings before YouTube to the groundbreaking technologies that now dominate platforms like Netflix and ORF ON. Timmerer also presents provocative contributions of his own that have significantly influenced the industry. He concludes by looking at future challenges and invites the audience to join in a discussion.
How to Get CNIC Information System with Paksim Ga.pptxdanishmna97
Pakdata Cf is a groundbreaking system designed to streamline and facilitate access to CNIC information. This innovative platform leverages advanced technology to provide users with efficient and secure access to their CNIC details.
Generative AI Deep Dive: Advancing from Proof of Concept to ProductionAggregage
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The Art of the Pitch: WordPress Relationships and SalesLaura Byrne
Clients don’t know what they don’t know. What web solutions are right for them? How does WordPress come into the picture? How do you make sure you understand scope and timeline? What do you do if sometime changes?
All these questions and more will be explored as we talk about matching clients’ needs with what your agency offers without pulling teeth or pulling your hair out. Practical tips, and strategies for successful relationship building that leads to closing the deal.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 6DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 6. In this session, we will cover Test Automation with generative AI and Open AI.
UiPath Test Automation with generative AI and Open AI webinar offers an in-depth exploration of leveraging cutting-edge technologies for test automation within the UiPath platform. Attendees will delve into the integration of generative AI, a test automation solution, with Open AI advanced natural language processing capabilities.
Throughout the session, participants will discover how this synergy empowers testers to automate repetitive tasks, enhance testing accuracy, and expedite the software testing life cycle. Topics covered include the seamless integration process, practical use cases, and the benefits of harnessing AI-driven automation for UiPath testing initiatives. By attending this webinar, testers, and automation professionals can gain valuable insights into harnessing the power of AI to optimize their test automation workflows within the UiPath ecosystem, ultimately driving efficiency and quality in software development processes.
What will you get from this session?
1. Insights into integrating generative AI.
2. Understanding how this integration enhances test automation within the UiPath platform
3. Practical demonstrations
4. Exploration of real-world use cases illustrating the benefits of AI-driven test automation for UiPath
Topics covered:
What is generative AI
Test Automation with generative AI and Open AI.
UiPath integration with generative AI
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Climate Impact of Software Testing at Nordic Testing DaysKari Kakkonen
My slides at Nordic Testing Days 6.6.2024
Climate impact / sustainability of software testing discussed on the talk. ICT and testing must carry their part of global responsibility to help with the climat warming. We can minimize the carbon footprint but we can also have a carbon handprint, a positive impact on the climate. Quality characteristics can be added with sustainability, and then measured continuously. Test environments can be used less, and in smaller scale and on demand. Test techniques can be used in optimizing or minimizing number of tests. Test automation can be used to speed up testing.
Essentials of Automations: The Art of Triggers and Actions in FMESafe Software
In this second installment of our Essentials of Automations webinar series, we’ll explore the landscape of triggers and actions, guiding you through the nuances of authoring and adapting workspaces for seamless automations. Gain an understanding of the full spectrum of triggers and actions available in FME, empowering you to enhance your workspaces for efficient automation.
We’ll kick things off by showcasing the most commonly used event-based triggers, introducing you to various automation workflows like manual triggers, schedules, directory watchers, and more. Plus, see how these elements play out in real scenarios.
Whether you’re tweaking your current setup or building from the ground up, this session will arm you with the tools and insights needed to transform your FME usage into a powerhouse of productivity. Join us to discover effective strategies that simplify complex processes, enhancing your productivity and transforming your data management practices with FME. Let’s turn complexity into clarity and make your workspaces work wonders!
Essentials of Automations: The Art of Triggers and Actions in FME
Cathey Quals
1. hydro-ecologic Modeling in the Okavango: hydrologic uncertainty analysis &the development of a fish model Anna Cathey Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering University of Florida
7. Uncertainty analysis (UA) is used to propagate parameter uncertainties onto the model output Inputs Output A MODEL B C B A Sensitivity analysis(SA) studies how the uncertainty in the output can be apportioned to the model inputs. C
18. Morris Method Input factor 1 X(3) X(2) Input factor 2 X(0) Global Sensitivity Analysis Qualitative Screening Tool Requires few simulations to map relative sensitivity Ranks input factors according to their effects on model output Two indices of sensitivity Main effect (mean µ): the direct effect of the input factor on a given output Interactions (standard deviation σ): the higher-order effects X(1) Input factor 3
19. Modified Morris Method results in two sensitivity measures σ - estimates the higher-order effects of the parameter. σ- Interactions μ* -Importance μ* - estimates the overall effect of the parameter on a given output.
25. GSA/GUA in the Okavango Basin Largest inland delta in the world Ramsar wetland of international significance Future development in Angola and Climate change may pose threats Ecology, tourism, fisheries, and collection of veld products all rely on hydrology Environmental flows are currently being set for the Delta No formal GSA/GUA has been run on the hydrologic models in the Okavango GUA can aid policy decisions GSA can reveal the most important processes in the system
26. A fish model Environmental flows are being set in the Delta Recommendation for the development of a quantitative relationship between the flood pulse and fish populations (Mosepele, 2009. Environmental Flow Specialist Report for the Okavango Delta) There is a theory that the flood pulse is a major driver for fish population has yet to be tested. This model will be used to test that hypothesis. Models can let us simulate experiments that are too big to conduct development climate change
27. Research Objectives Uncertainty Analysis of the Okavango Delta Hydrologic Model The development of hydrologically driven fish model Bucket model Spatial model Uncertainty analysis of the Pitman Model in the Okavango Basin Putting it all together: Scenarios in the linked Okavango modeling environment
29. HOORC Delta hydrologic model (Wolski, 2006) Structure Monthly time step Linked reservoir model Flow is input from Okavango River Groundwater flow and infiltration is represented sub-reservoirs Volume thresholds move water from one reservoir to another Represents Flood duration Flood frequency Flooding extents Outflow from the Boro River Model parameters for each reservoir include Area (surface, groundwater, island) Topography Evapotranspiration Rainfall ratio Flow resistance Extinction coefficient Volume threshold From Wolski (2006)
30. The Delta Hydrologic Model A reservoir model ~~~~~ linked to a ~~~~~ A GIS grid model Results are input into a grid model that inundates cells based on flood area Volume thresholds route water. Output is area of inundation Wolski Wolski, 2006
31. Step 1. Define pdfs U = uniform continuous distribution, D = uniform discrete distribution,
36. Interesting Model Behavior The maximum inundation for each of the reservoirs obtained during the GSA was mapped with interesting results. Degree to which the water is being moved around the system Future calibration may focus on refining the volume thresholds Panhandle Nqoga1 Thaoge Xudum
39. Bucket model: Flood Pulse Concept The main driver for riverine/ floodplain systems is the flood pulse The aquatic/terrestrial transition zone (ATTZ) is a ‘moving littoral’ high inputs of nutrients from dry land is dynamic and flowing Resulting high primary productivity in the ATTZ Impacts for fish utilization of floodplains Taken from Junk et al., 1989.
40. Okavango and the Flood Pulse Concept Food availability (Hoberg et al., 2002) “First flush” during advancing flood, nutrients released (4 mg/l N, 560 μg/l P) Burst in primary production (300 μg C/ ld, 24 μgchla/l) Resting zooplankton eggs hatch when submerged and feed on the phytoplankton (10 mg DW/l and up to 90 mg DW/l in near-shore edges) Fish spawn with the burst in zooplankton, providing food for the fry Spawning period (Merron, 1991) The larger the flood, the longer water is on the floodplain Leads to a longer spawning period and greater overall production of fish. (Mosepele et al., 2009) (Mmopelwa et al., 2009)
41. Everglades ALFISH model Fish model build on top of a flood pulsed hydrologic model (ATLSS) Periphyton, macrophytes, detritus, meso- and macro-invertebrates, and big and small fish are simulated Recruitment is based on fecundity and number of mature fish Fish move into floodplain as flood rises and into refugia as it recedes 3 types of mortality: background, predation, density dependant, failure to find refugia Growth is simulated by the von Bertalanffy relationships DeAngeles et al., 1997
42. Everglades ALFISH model But it’s more complicated than that… The coefficient of determination (R2) is only 0.35 for fish population and 0.88 for water depth Empirical findings show that depth only accounts for 20-40% of the variability in fish population Other factors like availability of prey and the frequency and size of the flood may be important Gaff et al., 2004
43. Murray-Darling Basin, Australia Experiences a flood pulse from snow melt Noted that floodplain utilization by fish was less than expected and that the relationships may be more complicated than previously thought Temperature, flood predictability, as well as inundation duration and area may also need to be considered King et al., 2003 http://www.sas.usace.army.mil/50/Images/drought.jpg http://www.mda.asn.au/
44. Okavango Fish Model www.ag.auburn.edu/.../details.php?image_id=534 Three-spotted tilapia (Oreochromisandersoni) is an indicator species for floodplain migratory fish in the Delta 120 age classes are simulated and tracked Beverton and Holt mortality equation von Bertalanffy age/weight/length relationships Flood based recruitment and additional mortality Based on monthly time step HOORC model of Delta inundation area Recruitment increases on the advancing flood (but is otherwise constant) Mortality increases on the receding flood (but is otherwise constant)
45. von Bertalanffyage/weight/length relationships Length from age Lt,n = Lmax(1-e-n) L is length (cm), n is age (years) Lmax is 53cm (Mosepele and Nengu, 2003) Biomass from length Bt,n = aLnb a and b are empirical parameters a is 0.004, and b is 3.242 (Mosepele and Nengu, 2003) (von Bertalanffy, 1957)
46. Beverton and HoltMortality Age class Time step Nn = R e(-Z*n) Nt,n = Nt-1,n-1e(-Z*Δn) N is number of fish, R is recruits, Z is mortality, and n is age class Z is 3.99 per year (Mosepele and Nengu, 2003) Z is divided into two parts natural (M) 1.39 fishing mortality (F) 2.60 per year Indicates that fishing pressure is relatively high (Mosepele and Nengu, 2003) (Beverton and Holt, 1956)
48. Flood pulse structural parameters Recruitment increases on the advancing flood R = R * At / At – 1 R is recruitment, A is area Mortality increases on the receding flood Nt,n = Nt-1,n-1e(-Z*Δn *(At / At-1)) N is number of fish, Z is mortality, and n is age in years
52. The spatial model Based on the flood pulse concept coupled with the foraging arena concept (Murray-Hudson, 2009)
53. Foraging Arena Concept Traditional Mass Action Principle: two well mixed species Number of encounters (predation) = density of sp1 *density sp2 Results in Strong top–down controls by predators Unstable community structure - predation affects biodiversity Field data from complex systems show mixed top-down and bottom–up controls Biodiversity is maintained in the face of predator/prey relationships Random distribution does not occur The Foraging Arena Theory addresses this discrepancy Organisms make spatial habitat choices that minimize the risk of predation Populations are divided into vulnerable (V) and safe (B-V) stocks Flux (v) between these states v(B-V) and vV Biomass flow rate from prey to predator Q = aVB. (Walters, 2006)
54. Okavango and the Foraging Arena Theory Mosepele (pers.comm., 2009) proposes vegetation related protection survivability is increased in denser vegetation types dense vegetation provides protection from predators Large predators typically reside in the stream channels, not in the floodplain
55. Foraging arena concept coupled with flood pulse concept High Flood Nutrients, Algae, and zooplankton High Predation Med Predation Low Predation Low Flood Crowding Dry, fish are forced to refugia
56. Vegetation in the Delta Vegetation types were modeled by Murray-Hudson (2009) based on the inundation duration of the HOORC grid model Four classes of functional vegetation types Mosepele proposes that predation varies among vegetation types Aquatic communities (Model survivability = N*0.8) Seasonally flooded sedgeland (Model survivability = N*0.95) Seasonally flooded grassland (Model survivability = N*0.9)
59. Pitman model (Pitman, 1973) Structure Rainfall runoff model Uses historic rainfall and temperature SPATSIM GUI Applications to Okavango Has been calibrated in the Okavango River (Hughes, 2006) Results can be used to drive the HOORC Delta model http://www.ru.ac.za/static/institutes/iwr/software/reserve/helpdss/model_frame.htm
60. GSA/GUA of the Pitman model Will use the Morris/FAST GSA/GUA technique GUA Understand the impact of the uncertainty of model inputs on streamflow Useful for decision making GSA Determine which inputs are most important Focus on the most important parameters Help to refine model structure
61. Preliminary Pitman Morris Results GW: Max rate of GW recharge R: Evap storage coefficient GPOW: Power storage-recharge curve FT: Runoff rate at ST ST: Max soil water storage POW: storage-runoff curve AFOR: % basin in type 2 veg FF: evaporation scaling factor RDF: Rainfall distribution factor *
62. Regionalization Based on varying characteristics that are spatially dependant East and West have difference geology resulting in different hydrographs South has less rainfall and can be a loosing reach Eastern sub-basins Southern sub-basins Western sub-basins
63. Preliminary Pitman GSA regionalized results E: Eastern watersheds W: Western watersheds S:Southern watersheds GW: Max rate of GW recharge R: Evap storage coefficient GPOW: Power storage-recharge curve
66. The whole systemPutting it all together The linked Okavango modeling environment will be run Pitman watershed model Delta hydrologic model Delta vegetation model Delta fish model Climate change and development scenarios will be simulated in the river basin along with GSA/GUA
68. Future work on Objective 2: the fish model Data will be collected for model calibration and testing The data that is available so far shows an annual signal Simulations of fishing, closed season, and other management strategies Alternative equations to compute mortality More spatially dynamic methods Alternatives to modeling responses to the flood food web based trophic models The GSA/GUA analysis will be refined (Mosepele et al., 2009) (Mmopelwa et al., 2009)
69. Future work on Objective 3: the Pitman GSA/GUA Refine the regionalization approach Run and analyze FAST GSA/GUA
70. Papers, Presentations, Posters Papers Cathey, A.M., R. Munoz-Carpena, P. Wolski, G. Kikers, (In edits) Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of the Okavango Delta Reservoir Model, Botswana Kiker, G.A., R. Muñoz-Carpena, P. Wolski, A. Cathey, A. Gaughan, & J. Kim. (2008) Incorporating uncertainty into adaptive, transboundary water challenges: a conceptual design for the Okavango river basin. Int. J. of Risk Assessment and Management Vol. 10, No.4 pp. 312 – 338. Presentations Cathey, A., G. Parent, A. Gaughn, W. Kanapaux, D. Wojick. 2009. Living with Thirst: People and Wildlife in Southern Africa’s Variable Climate. Video case study for the Ecological Society of America Case Millennium Conference. Athens, Georgia. Cathey, A., R. Muñoz-Carpena, P. Wolski. 2009. Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Hydro-Ecologic Models of the Okavango Basin, Botswana. Presentation at the University of Botswana Harry Oppenheimer Research Center. Maun, Botswana. Cathey, A., R. Muñoz-Carpena, G. Kiker. 2009. Uncertainty Analysis Using the Method of Morris on a Hydrologic Model of the Okavango Basin, Botswana. Presentation at the AWRA Summer Specialty Conference: Adaptive Management of Water Resources II. Snowbird, Utah. Cathey, A., R. Muñoz-Carpena, G. Kiker. 2009. Uncertainty Analysis of a Reservoir Model in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. Presentation at the Florida Section ASABE. Daytona Beach, Florida Cathey, A., R. Muñoz-Carpena, G. Kiker. 2009. Adaptive Management and Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Hydro-Ecologic Models of the Okavango Basin, Botswana. Presentation at the University of Botswana Harry Oppenheimer Research Center. Maun, Botswana. Posters Cathey A, Kiker, GA, Muñoz-Carpena,R. (2008) Incorporating Uncertainty into Adaptive, Transboundary Water Challenges: A Conceptual Design for the Okavango River Basin. Poster presented at University of Florida Water Institute Symposium, Gainesville, Florida and NSF IGERT Sustainability Conference, Fairbanks, Alaska.