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Capital Budgeting
Probability, Certainty Equivalent Approach, Risk Adjusted Discount Rate
Qn 1
Possible net cash flows of Projects A and B at the end of first year and
their probabilities are given below. Discount rate is 10 per cent. For
both the projects, initial investment is Rs.10,000. CALCULATE the
expected net present value for each project. STATE which project is
preferable.
PossibleEvent Project A Project B
Cash Flow Probability Cash Flow Probability
A 8,000 0.10 24,000 0.10
B 10,000 0.20 20,000 0.15
C 12,000 0.40 16,000 0.50
D 14,000 0.20 12,000 0.15
E 16,000 0.10 8,000 0.10
Qn 2
Probabilities for net cash flows for 3 years of a project are below
CALCULATE the expected net present value of the project using 10 per
cent discount rate if the Initial Investment of the project is Rs.10,000
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Cash
Flow
Probability Cash
Flow
Probability Cash
Flow
Probability
2,000 0.1 2,000 0.2 2,000 0.3
4,000 0.2 4,000 0.3 4,000 0.4
6,000 0.3 6,000 0.4 6,000 0.2
8,000 0.4 8,000 0.1 8,000 0.1
Qn 3
If Investment proposal costs Rs.45,00,000 and risk free rate is 5%,
CALCULATE net present value under certainty equivalent technique.
Year Expected
cash flow
Certainty
Equivalent
coefficient
1 10,00,000 0.90
2 15,00,000 0.85
3 20,00,000 0.82
4 25,00,000 0.78
Qn 4
A company employs certainty equivalent approach in the evaluation of
risky investments. The capital budgeting department has developed the
following information
Year Expected cash flow Certainty Equivalent
coefficient
0 -200 1
1 160 0.8
2 140 0.7
3 130 0.6
4 120 0.4
5 80 0.3
Qn 5
A company is considering two mutually exclusive projects. Amounts in
lakhs
The risk free rate of return is 9%, cost of capital is 13%, risk adjusted
discount rate is 16%. Which project should be accepted
Year Project X Certainty
Equivalents
Project
Y
Certainty
Equivalents
0 -40 1 -45 1
1 14.25 0.95 22.50 0.90
2 15.30 0.85 16.00 0.80
3 14.00 0.70 17.50 0.70
4 13.00 0.65 10.80 0.60
Qn 6
A company is considering an investment in one of the two mutually
exclusive proposals. The risk less rate is considered as 5%
Project A : Initial outlay of Rs.170,000/-
Project B : Initial outlay of Rs. 150,000/-
a) Which project should be acceptable? b) Which project is riskier?
c) If risk adjusted discount rate method, which project would be
analyzed with higher rate?
Year Project A Certainty
Equivalents
Project B Certainty
Equivalents
1 90,000 0.8 90,000 0.90
2 100,000 0.70 90,000 0.80
3 110,000 0.5 100,000 0.6

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Capital Budgeting.pptx

  • 1. Capital Budgeting Probability, Certainty Equivalent Approach, Risk Adjusted Discount Rate
  • 2. Qn 1 Possible net cash flows of Projects A and B at the end of first year and their probabilities are given below. Discount rate is 10 per cent. For both the projects, initial investment is Rs.10,000. CALCULATE the expected net present value for each project. STATE which project is preferable. PossibleEvent Project A Project B Cash Flow Probability Cash Flow Probability A 8,000 0.10 24,000 0.10 B 10,000 0.20 20,000 0.15 C 12,000 0.40 16,000 0.50 D 14,000 0.20 12,000 0.15 E 16,000 0.10 8,000 0.10
  • 3. Qn 2 Probabilities for net cash flows for 3 years of a project are below CALCULATE the expected net present value of the project using 10 per cent discount rate if the Initial Investment of the project is Rs.10,000 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Cash Flow Probability Cash Flow Probability Cash Flow Probability 2,000 0.1 2,000 0.2 2,000 0.3 4,000 0.2 4,000 0.3 4,000 0.4 6,000 0.3 6,000 0.4 6,000 0.2 8,000 0.4 8,000 0.1 8,000 0.1
  • 4. Qn 3 If Investment proposal costs Rs.45,00,000 and risk free rate is 5%, CALCULATE net present value under certainty equivalent technique. Year Expected cash flow Certainty Equivalent coefficient 1 10,00,000 0.90 2 15,00,000 0.85 3 20,00,000 0.82 4 25,00,000 0.78
  • 5. Qn 4 A company employs certainty equivalent approach in the evaluation of risky investments. The capital budgeting department has developed the following information Year Expected cash flow Certainty Equivalent coefficient 0 -200 1 1 160 0.8 2 140 0.7 3 130 0.6 4 120 0.4 5 80 0.3
  • 6. Qn 5 A company is considering two mutually exclusive projects. Amounts in lakhs The risk free rate of return is 9%, cost of capital is 13%, risk adjusted discount rate is 16%. Which project should be accepted Year Project X Certainty Equivalents Project Y Certainty Equivalents 0 -40 1 -45 1 1 14.25 0.95 22.50 0.90 2 15.30 0.85 16.00 0.80 3 14.00 0.70 17.50 0.70 4 13.00 0.65 10.80 0.60
  • 7. Qn 6 A company is considering an investment in one of the two mutually exclusive proposals. The risk less rate is considered as 5% Project A : Initial outlay of Rs.170,000/- Project B : Initial outlay of Rs. 150,000/- a) Which project should be acceptable? b) Which project is riskier? c) If risk adjusted discount rate method, which project would be analyzed with higher rate? Year Project A Certainty Equivalents Project B Certainty Equivalents 1 90,000 0.8 90,000 0.90 2 100,000 0.70 90,000 0.80 3 110,000 0.5 100,000 0.6