C4.07: Using models to help shape sustainable coasts - Beth Fulton
Australia sees itself as the coastal nation and the world is following suite, with more than three quarters to the global population projected to live within coastal zones by mid century. As the point where land and sea meet coasts represent a rich diversity of environment types, livelihoods, opportunities and conflicting objectives. Models a one means of navigating through the situation, bringing together information in a consistent framework and helping people visualise what alternative futures may contain. The diversity of modelling tools available has grown in sophistication over the last 30 years, growing to encompass consideration of ecosystem and human dimensions of the coastal zone. Drawing on examples from Australia and around the world this discussion will show that while there is plenty of scope for future development, modelling approaches have matured to a point that they provide a tailorable toolbox of approaches that can get beyond impact modelling to address the socioecological and operational challenges involved in finding pragmatic sustainable options for coastal zone development and management.
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C4.07: Using models to help shape sustainable coasts - Beth Fulton
- 1. Using models to help shape sustainable coasts Beth Fulton 2015 CSIRO Oceans & ATMOSPHERE Flagship Photo: Surf coast shire
- 2. Humans - The Coastal Species Using models to help shape sustainable coasts | Beth Fulton | Page 2 2% Map: ABS
- 3. Humans - The Coastal Species Using models to help shape sustainable coasts | Beth Fulton | Page 3 Map: http://studiosimpel.nl/map/hiresmap.png
- 4. Humans - Coastal Species Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 4 Map: http://www.depi.vic.gov.au/ New YorkLos Angeles Lima Buenos Aires Rio de Janeiro Istanbul Lagos Karachi Mumbai Madras Calcutta Jakarta Bangkok Osaka SeoulTianjin Dhaka Manila Shanghai Tokyo Mega-cities
- 5. Humans - The Coastal Species Using models to help shape sustainable coasts | Beth Fulton | Page 5 45% 75%
- 6. Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 6 Crowded space
- 7. Multiple & clashing objectives Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 7
- 8. Helping find desirable futures Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 8
- 9. Evolution of modelling Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 9 0D 3D Finer scales More - processes - habitats - species (& trophic levels)
- 10. Evolution of modelling Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 10
- 11. CORSA External demand Imports Domestic demand Inter-sectoral demand Employment Income Socio-economic land demand Land Use Industry activities Food web Habitats Climate Population Migration C Pool C Market Infrastructure Zoning Ecosystem state Physical environment Suitability Use map
- 12. Tour Boats Tourists Residents Fish schools Finally resolved (GPS & individuals)
- 13. Socioecological models Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 13 & EXPERIENCE
- 14. Don’t forget the humans Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 14 Air temperature Sea level Due to the human bits Plot: Yin (2015) NCC
- 15. Data… Data… Data… Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 15
- 16. Wrapping Up a. Crowded coastal space b. Multiple conflicting objectives c. Synthesising information and providing options d. From (operational) biophysical to (strategic) socioecological e. Human role important so don’t forget (or chop) them Presentation title | Presenter name | Page 16
- 17. Thank you CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere Beth Fulton t +61 3 6232 5018 E beth.fulton@csiro.au w http://atlantis.cmar.csiro.au/ CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric
Editor's Notes
- To give you an example takes layers of infrastructure, zoning, environmental layers (read in from GIS); an embedded foodweb and habitat model in each cell that responds to what it experiences; layered over the top is an industry and land use model which responds to local resources and is shaped by (and shapes) the population and economy
- To put this together you lay down a bathymetric grid Add habitat Biomass pools live on the habitat (bit circles) Schools of fish (yellow and light blue) with different habitat preferences individual animals (black silhouettes) for the top predators Including migrants through the system (hammerhead)