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Business Model of Social Games

       University of Bournemouth

              (2012-Mar-01)


               Gerald Tan
       Co-Founder, COO (Head of Product)
Does music go away?
GERALD TAN
Co-founder, COO (Head of Product)
Plumbee

Strategic Advisor Hooplo Media 2011
Independent Consultant 2011

Senior Product Manager / Producer Playfish (EA) 2009-2011

Finance and Business Manager Pogo.com and EA Online
Publishing (EA) 2007-2009

Financial Reporting and Control Manager EMI Group PLC
2004 - 2007

ICAEW Qualified Chartered Accountant
2002

gerald@plumbee.co.uk
Twitter: @tan_gerald
Business Model of Social Games
8
Evolution




      9
Games Timeline




 PONG
                        2008

         Golden
         age of
         arcade
        machines   Social Games
Before 2008:
• Games = Niche
• Big, But Closed Industry
• Non-Gamers Not Welcome
• Barriers to entry – you need a console
Number of gamers exploded:
    2000: 250M
    2011: 1B+




•   New fast-growing „open‟ platforms (Fb, iOS)
•   Metrics-led design, new generation of game devs
•   Broadband penetration so very accessible
•   Free to play
Like 90s dot.com boom it is hyped and
inflated…

But Social Games companies have REAL
REVENUE and PROFTIABLE

Zynga
• Q4 revenue = $311K … and raised $1B
  IPO in Dec-11
• Market capitalization $9B vs $5B for EA
Why Should You Care?


• 150B minutes spent EVERY MONTH on social games
   •   That’s an average of 10 minutes for everyone on the planet!



• 81M people play social games at least once a day
   •   49M play a few times a day


• 33% of console players said regular playing pattern
  declined since starting social games
   •   Console market expected to shrink globally
Social games = (much) bigger
than primetime TV shows
Social Games




Mobile Games

Source: Mashable, Oct 2011           16
Console vs PC




          17
Rise of PC Gaming




 Source: ignite Game Technolgies Sept-11
Different Business Models

Subscriptions   Freemium +       Lite         Freemium
                Advertising                        +
                  (Display)                Microtransactions




    Freemium + MTX : Most effective business model
                                                       19
Definitions                     Uses

         Freemium:                  Freemium:
 - use for free but premium   - low barrier entry point
     content chargeable

    Microtransactions:          Microtransactions:
- virtual items purchasable   - pay according to what
    for small amounts of         “perceived” value is
       real currency




                                                          20
Social Games




Social Games = Fastest Growing and
          Most Disruptive

                                 21
Not just small Game Studios




Source: Various
Users
What do Social Gamers like?




Source: Various (see appendix)
Game is a Service not a Product

                                                           More
                       New                                          Ready to
    Live                              Reiterate          veteran
                     Features                                       x-promo
                                                         features
                                                                      Scale
                                                                      down



                                Time dependent on game

•   Launching the game is just the beginning

•   Metrics and analytics

•   User Lifecycle

•   Ready to x-promo out

                                                                          25
User life cycle
                               Engagement
                                              Conversion                    Repeat
     Installs       Virality       and                       Monetization
                                              and Billing                   spend
                                 Retention




•   Different features for different stages of user life cycle

•   Fine tune with metrics

•   Predictive analytics

•   KNOW YOUR USER




                                                                                     26
The two week sprint

                         Planning:
Specs and      Sprint     Stories and   Assigning
Roadmaps     Planning        Tasks        team      GO




                          Sprint:
              Coding
Art goes       starts       Code         Play
                                                    LIVE
   first    (front and     Review       testing
             backend




                                                       27
Studio SetupStudio Setup
        Tech Lead              Producer
                                                                      Marketing




Lead Back     Lead Flash      Lead Art &    Game
                                                          PM          CM
   End        Developer         Design     Designer


Back End        Flash            Art &
                                Design                  Analyst
Developer     Developer


Back End        Flash
Developer     Developer




• Size is dependent on                       • Game Design =       • Communication
  needs of the game         • UI               Fun                   channels
                                                                               28
  especially on             • Artstyle       • Game Intel = Data   • Community
  production                                                         management
Funnel


              Reach             size of audience

Acquisition + Liquidity        adding audience

          Retention           keeping audience

          Spenders        converting to spenders

           Revenue                   bottom line
Each key metric is connected




                               30
Right
benchmarks
   essential

        31
#1   Reach




       32
Reach
                                   Reach
                    Acquisition + Liquidity
                                Retention
  MAU and DAU                    Spenders
                                 Revenue




                    >30M MAU
        Peaked at     = largest
        100M MAU    Poker site in
                     the world 33
Reach
                                                                                               Reach
                                                                            Acquisition + Liquidity
                                                                                         Retention
                                                                                         Spenders
Differs by genre                                                                         Revenue
       Resources Mgt                         Casual
•   DAU big ranges (Cityville    •   “Real game mechanics”
    peaked at                    •   Light and easy to get                 RPG
    100M, Millionaire City           into - casual player      •   Zombie Lane (1.9M)
    2.5M, Restaurant City        •   Bubble Witch Saga         •   Vampire Diaries (0.3M)
    5M)                              (4.2M DAU and rising)     •   Combines social but
•   Competitive genre –          •   Bejeweled Blitz (peaked       more with a role-playing-
    most games are in this           at 4.6M)                      game element
    category


       Gaming / Casino                  Hidden Objects
•   “New-ish” category           •   Garden‟s of Time 8.3M
•   Slotomania                       but most popular game
    (1.7M), DoubleDown               on Facebook in terms of        And many more…
    Casino (1.1M), Bingo Blitz       satisfaction              •   Sports
    (0.9M)                       •   New games: Hidden         •   Mid-core strategy
•   High ARPDAU                      Chronicles, Jane          •   etc
•   Older female skew                Austen‟s inpsired Rouge
                                     and Romance (BBC)
                                                                                           34
Source: Various Feb-12
#2   Acquisition and Liquidity




                           36
Reach


Acquisition and Liquidity
                            Acquisition + Liquidity
                                        Retention
                                         Spenders
                                         Revenue




Paid Installs




Viral Installs

                                           37
#3   Retention




                 38
Reach


                 Retention
                                                              Acquisition + Liquidity
                                                                          Retention
                                                                           Spenders
                                                                           Revenue

    Retention rates
•   Day 2 retention rates is crucial
•   Good games retain 35% to 40%
•   Overtime quality installs drops
•   Retention by level and on-boarding
    drop offs to prevent lapsing users




                                         Newbies and Veterans
                                           • Day 3 - 7, D14, D21, D30, D60 –
                                             there is a difference between
                                             newbies and veteran retention


                                                                             39
Newbie + Veteran Average Retention
Decay curve of a social game


                      Only 35% and 45% of users
  % returning users




                        Veterans
                       actually come back the
                                next day



                               Newbies




                         The rest lapse out
                                                  40
#4   Spenders




          41
Reach


 Spenders
                                                   Acquisition + Liquidity
                                                                Retention
                                                                Spenders
                                                                 Revenue
 Metrics
• Small % of spenders ( <5%)
• Depends on the product offering
• By genre ARPDAU is different

   Price



           $50               Small % of spenders will
                              generate most of the
             $20
                                    revenue
                       $5
                              $1

                   1% - 5%           95%+               No of users
                                                                      42
#5   Revenue




         43
Reach


Revenue
                                  Acquisition + Liquidity
                                              Retention
                                               Spenders
                                               Revenue




     DAU      ARPDAU




              Conversion
     DAU        rate
                           Spenders




   Spenders    ARPPU



                                                 44
Reach


Revenue
          Acquisition + Liquidity
                      Retention
                       Spenders
                       Revenue




                         45
46
Gerald Tan

gerald@plumbee.co.uk
twitter.com/tan_gerald




                         47

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Business Model of Social Games (Detailed) - Gerald Tan (2012-Mar-01)

  • 1. Business Model of Social Games University of Bournemouth (2012-Mar-01) Gerald Tan Co-Founder, COO (Head of Product)
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5. GERALD TAN Co-founder, COO (Head of Product) Plumbee Strategic Advisor Hooplo Media 2011 Independent Consultant 2011 Senior Product Manager / Producer Playfish (EA) 2009-2011 Finance and Business Manager Pogo.com and EA Online Publishing (EA) 2007-2009 Financial Reporting and Control Manager EMI Group PLC 2004 - 2007 ICAEW Qualified Chartered Accountant 2002 gerald@plumbee.co.uk Twitter: @tan_gerald
  • 6. Business Model of Social Games
  • 7.
  • 8. 8
  • 10. Games Timeline PONG 2008 Golden age of arcade machines Social Games
  • 11. Before 2008: • Games = Niche • Big, But Closed Industry • Non-Gamers Not Welcome • Barriers to entry – you need a console
  • 12. Number of gamers exploded: 2000: 250M 2011: 1B+ • New fast-growing „open‟ platforms (Fb, iOS) • Metrics-led design, new generation of game devs • Broadband penetration so very accessible • Free to play
  • 13. Like 90s dot.com boom it is hyped and inflated… But Social Games companies have REAL REVENUE and PROFTIABLE Zynga • Q4 revenue = $311K … and raised $1B IPO in Dec-11 • Market capitalization $9B vs $5B for EA
  • 14. Why Should You Care? • 150B minutes spent EVERY MONTH on social games • That’s an average of 10 minutes for everyone on the planet! • 81M people play social games at least once a day • 49M play a few times a day • 33% of console players said regular playing pattern declined since starting social games • Console market expected to shrink globally
  • 15. Social games = (much) bigger than primetime TV shows
  • 16. Social Games Mobile Games Source: Mashable, Oct 2011 16
  • 18. Rise of PC Gaming Source: ignite Game Technolgies Sept-11
  • 19. Different Business Models Subscriptions Freemium + Lite Freemium Advertising + (Display) Microtransactions Freemium + MTX : Most effective business model 19
  • 20. Definitions Uses Freemium: Freemium: - use for free but premium - low barrier entry point content chargeable Microtransactions: Microtransactions: - virtual items purchasable - pay according to what for small amounts of “perceived” value is real currency 20
  • 21. Social Games Social Games = Fastest Growing and Most Disruptive 21
  • 22. Not just small Game Studios Source: Various
  • 23. Users
  • 24. What do Social Gamers like? Source: Various (see appendix)
  • 25. Game is a Service not a Product More New Ready to Live Reiterate veteran Features x-promo features Scale down Time dependent on game • Launching the game is just the beginning • Metrics and analytics • User Lifecycle • Ready to x-promo out 25
  • 26. User life cycle Engagement Conversion Repeat Installs Virality and Monetization and Billing spend Retention • Different features for different stages of user life cycle • Fine tune with metrics • Predictive analytics • KNOW YOUR USER 26
  • 27. The two week sprint Planning: Specs and Sprint Stories and Assigning Roadmaps Planning Tasks team GO Sprint: Coding Art goes starts Code Play LIVE first (front and Review testing backend 27
  • 28. Studio SetupStudio Setup Tech Lead Producer Marketing Lead Back Lead Flash Lead Art & Game PM CM End Developer Design Designer Back End Flash Art & Design Analyst Developer Developer Back End Flash Developer Developer • Size is dependent on • Game Design = • Communication needs of the game • UI Fun channels 28 especially on • Artstyle • Game Intel = Data • Community production management
  • 29. Funnel Reach size of audience Acquisition + Liquidity adding audience Retention keeping audience Spenders converting to spenders Revenue bottom line
  • 30. Each key metric is connected 30
  • 31. Right benchmarks essential 31
  • 32. #1 Reach 32
  • 33. Reach Reach Acquisition + Liquidity Retention MAU and DAU Spenders Revenue >30M MAU Peaked at = largest 100M MAU Poker site in the world 33
  • 34. Reach Reach Acquisition + Liquidity Retention Spenders Differs by genre Revenue Resources Mgt Casual • DAU big ranges (Cityville • “Real game mechanics” peaked at • Light and easy to get RPG 100M, Millionaire City into - casual player • Zombie Lane (1.9M) 2.5M, Restaurant City • Bubble Witch Saga • Vampire Diaries (0.3M) 5M) (4.2M DAU and rising) • Combines social but • Competitive genre – • Bejeweled Blitz (peaked more with a role-playing- most games are in this at 4.6M) game element category Gaming / Casino Hidden Objects • “New-ish” category • Garden‟s of Time 8.3M • Slotomania but most popular game (1.7M), DoubleDown on Facebook in terms of And many more… Casino (1.1M), Bingo Blitz satisfaction • Sports (0.9M) • New games: Hidden • Mid-core strategy • High ARPDAU Chronicles, Jane • etc • Older female skew Austen‟s inpsired Rouge and Romance (BBC) 34
  • 36. #2 Acquisition and Liquidity 36
  • 37. Reach Acquisition and Liquidity Acquisition + Liquidity Retention Spenders Revenue Paid Installs Viral Installs 37
  • 38. #3 Retention 38
  • 39. Reach Retention Acquisition + Liquidity Retention Spenders Revenue Retention rates • Day 2 retention rates is crucial • Good games retain 35% to 40% • Overtime quality installs drops • Retention by level and on-boarding drop offs to prevent lapsing users Newbies and Veterans • Day 3 - 7, D14, D21, D30, D60 – there is a difference between newbies and veteran retention 39
  • 40. Newbie + Veteran Average Retention Decay curve of a social game Only 35% and 45% of users % returning users Veterans actually come back the next day Newbies The rest lapse out 40
  • 41. #4 Spenders 41
  • 42. Reach Spenders Acquisition + Liquidity Retention Spenders Revenue Metrics • Small % of spenders ( <5%) • Depends on the product offering • By genre ARPDAU is different Price $50 Small % of spenders will generate most of the $20 revenue $5 $1 1% - 5% 95%+ No of users 42
  • 43. #5 Revenue 43
  • 44. Reach Revenue Acquisition + Liquidity Retention Spenders Revenue DAU ARPDAU Conversion DAU rate Spenders Spenders ARPPU 44
  • 45. Reach Revenue Acquisition + Liquidity Retention Spenders Revenue 45
  • 46. 46

Editor's Notes

  1. Explosion in number of gamers – 4 years ago WoW was cultural phenomenon with 12M players (today medium sized social game)
  2. And Facebook: $60Btoday, Omnicom = $15B
  3. Based on key learnings and experience
  4. Based on key learnings and experience
  5. Based on key learnings and experience