This document outlines an agenda for a competitive war gaming workshop held in Miami in June 2015. The agenda includes discussions of the volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) retail environment, the retail-volution and how it impacts businesses, and an introduction to classic patterns of competitive war gaming and how gaming helps strategize. The document provides examples of war gaming techniques like using metaphors to understand competitors, developing attack strategies, and scenario planning to prepare for various futures.

1. CLASSIC PATTERNS OF
COMPETITIVE WAR GAMING
Brian Byrne, Aviador & Assoc.
Trump National Doral, Miami FL June 2015

2. Introduction
Competitor War Games Workshop
© Aviador 2015 2
What We DoWho We Work With

3. Today’s Agenda
I. Global “VUCA” Battlefield: Disruptive Retail
II. REtail-VOLUTION …What It Means To Us
III.War Gaming: How It Helps, How It Works
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“Moving from solving a world of problems, which demand speed,
analysis, and elimination of uncertainty to a world of dilemmas,
which demand patience, sense-making, and an ….
engagement of uncertainty.”
I. Global VUCA Battlefield

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A quantum change in the way we buy and sell goods
and services.
II. REtail-VOLUTION

10. The APPLE Amazing Experience
The STARBUCK’S Experience
Activism Meets Consumerism
Business War Games Workshop
© Brian T. Byrne and Associates / Aviador 2015
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Iconic “Experiential” Brands Face The Wrath of Counter-Consumerism Trend

11. “Canary In The Kitchen”, Too
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© Brian T. Byrne and Associates / Aviador 2015 11

12. The Joy (?) Of Shopping
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Did IT change or did WE ?

13. Mall Failure
 6,000 retail
locations
closing
 “Dead Malls”
 Rust belt
epicenter
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 Eroding middle
class
 Less disposable
income
 Demographic
shifts, Amazon

14. On-Demand: “Mall Killers”
 Mobile apps factor
 All about “deals on-
demand”
 What about Groupon,
Yelp?
 DASH button disruptor
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15. Old Things Made New Again
1. Missionary: challenges prevailing belief system
[Fashion: Louis Vuitton “Lifestyle”…not just luggage]
2. Visionary: challenges category purpose and role
[Cleansing: deep, gentle cleansing, not just washing]
3. Rule Breaker: challenges commonly accepted category rule
[Pop-Up Barber: Manly stuff + amazing AVEDA experience]
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CHALLENGERS know how to translate brand HERITAGE into HERESY

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Sun Tsu
Most battles won before they are fought;
Strategy without tactics is slow route to victory;
Tactics without strategy= “noise” before defeat.
III. BUSINESS WAR GAMING

17. Business War Gaming: How
Business War Games Workshop
© Brian T. Byrne and Associates / Aviador 2015
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 Frame Battlefield
 Micro Situation, Macro Trends
 Surprising-Scary Stuff
 New Insights: Metaphor Tool
 How To Challenge
 Scenario Planning & Risk
 Strategic Pillars: Battle Map
 Flesh Out Battle Plan
 Role Play THE ENEMY + Implications
 Priorities: Now, Soon, Later
Divergent
Activate
DAY ONE
DAY TWO
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18. Online Community Test Lab: Battle Plan
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 Output from two day WAR GAMING workshop
 Send it to ONLINE COMMUNITY for gaming feedback
 Adjust plan based on their feedback

19. Stretch Minds Beyond Accepted
Norms of Competition
 Understand enemy: character, culture capabilities
 Think like them, get into their head (role play)
 Develop disruptive strategic activation
 Scenario-plan opportunities and risks
 FIERCELY activate as a Samurai Warrior or Cossack
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20. As War Gamers, What To Look For?
 Over- or under- served customers
Excessive product complexity
Large segments of non-adopters
 Changing value dynamics
Acquisition targets & patterns
Disruptive suppliers in adjacent sectors
 Emerging “whitespace” segments or
differentiated competitors
Strong players in adjacent segments,
esp. mature markets
Source: Innosight, 2014
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CUSTOMER
DIAGNOSTIC
PORTFOLIO
DIAGNOSTIC
COMPETITOR
DIAGNOSTIC
Three Dimensions of Disruptions

21. Ask THE Right
Question
Game Theory: question-led… moves by
one player triggers moves by others
No player an island, all operate in a system
autiful Mind” movie, the story of John Forbes Nashhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFUF5OEUiD8
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Questions
with
Victoria
Beckham
A
Beautiful
Mind
Movie
With
Russell
Crowe
VIDEO:
Unmasking Enigmas: great interviewers
reveal essential truth of person, place, thing
Victoria Beckham: humanity behind “brand”

22. Shift Your MINDSET
METAPHORS are a way to:
1. stimulate “out of the box” thinking; shared reference for teams
2. synthesize market/ competitive situation; insights via analogies
3. understand how to compete in order to:
 visualize how “we” can act differently …
 …. based on “their” vulnerabilities and strengths
 develop new insights, help us think like THEM
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23. Categories & Metaphors
Hungry Gorilla v. Clever Monkey
Walled City v. Trojan Horse
Fat & Happy Whale v. Shark
Rich Idiot v. Smart Peasant
Roving Pirates v. Captain Philips
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Manchester U v. Arsenal
Medieval History
Animal Kingdom
Sports
Movies

24. Starbuck’s Was a “Walled City”
How to attack, conquer a Walled City?
 Surprise, Sneak Attack
 build less expensive “New City” nearby
Direct Attack – McCafe 2009
 “Stole” villagers from Walled City- similar coffee, lower price
How to survive it ?
 Take better care of your villagers (keep them loyal)
 Expand fiefdom in a novel direction
 Build a better Walled City (e.g. Sephora)
 Make experience so special that villagers stay
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25. Beauty Business: Like the “Hat
Competition” At Royal Ascot
“A Beautiful Mind” movie, the
story of John Forbes Nash
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26. Sephora NEW Walled City
Sephora emerges as leading digital retailer:
 One third-of online= mobile / tablet
 iSephora To Go app nurtures loyalty
and convenience [research in-store]
 app tracks current store promos, past
purchases, loyalty points earned
 if a customer is $$ shy of earning next
reward, she can update her basket
before she gets to the register
Past purchase info assistance:
 shoppers can lose track of exact
foundation shade or lipstick color
purchased previously
 For repeats, Sephora looks up info and
drives customer to make purchase in-
store
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"We think customers should use their phones in stores,
your phone is always in your hand, so we're using
mobile to transform the shopping experience. Our
customers can use the app to track Beauty Insider
points, so while shopping, she knows how many more
points to accumulate and can shop accordingly“
Johnna Marcus, Sephora
director of mobile, digital store marketing

27. PHYGITAL: Merge Physical + Digital
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“PHYGITAL” consumers will move in four areas:
1. On Demand: engage digitally anywhere, anytime
2. Data-Holistic: “whole” experiences using total lifestyle data
3. Personalized: expectation of precision-tailored experiences
4. Seamless: ease of use, end-to-end continuity: “no hassle”
Burberry World Live-Regent St.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CokbQWI_15U

28. Choose + Combine Attack Strategies
Direct Attack When bigger, richer and more resilient than competitor
Indirect Attack When same size/smaller than competitor (or in a deadlocked
position); initially distract and then secondarily attack their achilles heel
Envelopment Attack When your multi-brand portfolio can “surround” a lone
competitor and usurp whitespace
Bypass Attack When disadvantaged in a primary, home market -- transfer core
competencies to adjacent or unrelated category.
Guerrilla Attack Ideal for a centralized, command and control competitor who
will not be nimble enough to respond to random, constant stream of assaults
Infiltrate and Destroy From Within When your opponent has ferocious defenses,
impervious to classic attacks. Also known as “Trojan Horse” playbook.
Business War Games Workshop
© Brian T. Byrne and Associates / Aviador 2015 28

29. No Island To Invade? Just Build One
PIRATE ATTACK: South China Sea; China Builds Own Strategic Isles
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Apple Challenged Music, Mobile
Watch And Other Categories
NOW: Apple itself is being challenged !!!

31. Scenario: Lord of the Rings
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Cast of characters:
Android (Samsung)= Dark Lord Sauron Apple = [the One] Ring of Mordor
This one?
Or, this one?
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32. Q: Who Will Win Smartphone Battle?
…or Samsung or GooglePhone or ???
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33.  Tells consumers what they need
 Outsources manufacturing [i.e. a
Sales+Marketing company]
 Pushes product through channels
 Vertical focus: “mobility”
 Latest innovations: iWatch
 Conducts extensive CI on needs
 Manufactures internally, even key
components for Apple!
 Partners with distributors in design
 “at home” , “mobile lifestyle mgt.”
 Latest innovations: curved screen
Q: Who Wins GREAT WAR for Mobile
Lifestyle Control
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34. High Fashion Meets High Tech
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Angela Ahrends

35. Scenarios Prepare For Various Futures
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• Future is unpredictable---but preparing
for a range of possible futures is useful
• Leverages insights across functions and
uses this knowledge to build the
scenarios
• Designed to eliminate “jumping to a
single conclusion” while considering all
the possible risks and opportunities
Critical
Business Issue
Building
Scenarios and Risk Events
Cross Functional
Teams
Scenario Planning Process
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GOOGLE Wonderland Pop-up Store

36. Last Phone Standing: Envelop Apple!
[Be Switzerland, Not Poland]
• Defend from strong citadels
• Close whitespace gaps before “them”
• Second tier price flanker (China) w less
features
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Premium
Differentiated,
Integrated
Value
HTC (Droid) Value
HTC Titan-Premium
Functional,
Simple
VI
MOTO-X (Droid)
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ANDROID CHALLENGERS!

37. APPLE Mile Wide, Inch Deep
Android Envelopment
GOOGLE “Fewer, Better”
 Eroded iPhone margins (China)
 iCloud security chaos, iOS, Siri
and iMaps flops
 iTunes yields to Pandora
 iWatch: people expect it to be
a phone too
 What if Google buys Pandora?
 Retooling Maps-App, voice-
activated search
 G-Glass test and learn
 Self-Driving car
Keep An Eye on RIGHT Competitor
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38. “Reality” Isn’t What It Used to Be
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39. Q: Would You Trust Your Wallet to
Money: Mugardos, Spain Commerce: Online
BITCOIN
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40. Imagineer AUDACIOUS Scenarios
O P E N I N G O U R E Y E S T O A R A N G E O F P O T E N T I A L F U T U R E S …
… A N D A C C O M P A N Y I N G O P P O R T U N I T I E S & R I S K S
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DUBAI DOMED CITY 2025

41. What Is BIGGEST Risk We Imagine?
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Russian Asteroid Hurricane Sandy
What is the probability of it occurring?
How much would it Impact us ?
“BLACK SWANS” infrequent, but VERY HIGH impact
HIT PAUSE: think about what might happen

42. THANK YOU
Business War Games Workshop
© Brian T. Byrne Enterprises Ltd./ Aviador 2015
CONTACT: BByrne@Aviadorgroup.com
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May The FIERCE Be With you!