Dr Christopher Hartwell, President of CASE's Management Board, and Professor Joanna Tyrowicz, of GRAPE and University of Warsaw, will present views and perspectives from Poland in response to Brexit. Topics to be covered will include: migration & labour markets trade growth Poland's priorities in the Brexit negotiations security and Russia general developments in the EU Dr Emma Carmel, Senior Lecturer at the University of Bath will provide responses. The roundtable will be chaired by Professor Nick Pearce, Director of the IPR.

1. Brexit – A view from Poland
(as if the Brits cared to begin with…)
Joanna Tyrowicz

2. Tough love
• How much do Poles care about Brexit?
• Poles very much consumed by own political situation
• Some households clearly more engaged than others
– What will change for those who work in the UK?
– Will there be any new business coming to Poland?
– Will there be any British business leaving?

3. An exceptional outlook in Poland
• Brexit talks take place when people feel relatively secure
• Unemployment hits a record low
• High welfare and expectation of welfare
• Economy booming (~5% pa in last q!)
• Even if:
– Huge political polarization
– Uncertainty about economic policy (businesses)
– Fear that this welfare is not affordable in the long run

4. Does Polish good outlook
make UK more or less attractive?
• Structural issues remain unaddressed:
• Job search takes forever
• Many job prospects are missing (periphery economy)
• Educational institutions of lower quality
• Infrastructure continues to drag opportunities down
• UK is a different environment to live in
• Financial benefits vs comprehensive support
• Less inequality vs greater opportunities
• And so on…

5. Does Polish good outlook
make UK more or less attractive?
• Why did Poles come to the UK to begin with?
• What is different now from 2004-2006?
• Eade & Garappich typology
• Was it good or bad for them?
• Statistical twins do about the same…
• In relative terms Poles do not do too well…
• Human capital penalty of about 15%

6. Poland’s place in the EU after Brexit
• Poland’s view of things less globalized than that of Britain
• Polish daily vs British daily
• The role of the UK in the EU was unclear for Poles
• The list of net contributors = one country
• NATO = one country
• Germany not a threat (possibly a political scape goat)
• EU – w/ or w/o UK -- would not stand up to Russia
• Sometimes with PL, sometimes against = country like any
other

7. An exercise in empathy
• Increased inflow of Ukrainians to Poland
• Experience inward migration (first time since WW2)
– Culture & language (also: wording of the narrative)
– Labor market functioning
– Reaction of employers, employees, local authorities
• No exercise in empathy with the recent EU enlargement
– Talks of money (how much less left for PL)
• No exercise in empathy with the migration crisis

8. Thank you for your attention!
w | grape.org.pl Joanna Tyrowicz: j.tyrowicz@grape.org.pl
fb | GRAPE.org
tt | GRAPE_ORG