Presentation from the Doing Business with the Eurasian Economic Union Conference covers; Trade; Silk Road; Trump; China-US Leadership Transition; NATO; EU.

1. Playing the Trump Card in Eurasia
Brien Desilets, Claret Consulting
3rd Annual Doing Business with the Eurasian Economic Union Conference
Washington, DC | 28 November 2016

2. Topics
• Trade
• Silk Road
• Enter Trump
• China-US Leadership Transition
• NATO
• EU
• Conclusion

3. Trade is not the main issue
• China has increased its trade and investment around the world
• Nearly every country can boast an increase in Chinese investment
• The US and EU remain China and Russia’s top trading partners
• Russia is sometimes in the top 10 of China’s trading partners
• Russia is key to China-EU trade routes, mainly via Russian Railways
• Major Chinese investments in Russia include those in transportation
infrastructure to support China-EU trade
• Trade is the ultimate positive sum activity

4. Silk Road
• Plan to improve infrastructure and link the countries on China-Europe
trade routes
• Another positive sum activity
• AIIB created to support Silk Road but US did not join
• Security issues will need to be addressed along the Silk Road
• Potential for greater role in security by China Russia, and EU
• Russia already playing this role in Syria
• Need to address potential conflicts with US

5. Enter Trump
• Supports Russian role in Syria
• Critical of US role in Syria, Iraq, Libya, etc.
• A view shared by many
• Critical of ‘free-riders’ among NATO members
• Support for EU armed forces
• Conservative approach to military engagements
• May even welcome China’s increased security role
• Would follow the maxims of public finance & currency area theories,
assigning responsibility to the appropriate benefit area
• Yielding another positive sum result?

6. China-US Leadership Transition
• Generally accepted by some, though not all, that China will ascend to
global leadership
• Question remains whether the transition from US to Chinese
leadership will be peaceful
• The more the US willing yields to Chinese leadership in certain affairs,
the better the two countries will be able to collaborate and ensure
peace
• Reverberations from this relationship will affect the rest of the world

7. NATO
• Outdated organization seeking justification for its existence
• Staff eager to engage Russia to seem relevant
• Many external critics
• Many internal critics
• What is its role and function?

8. EU
• European experiment suffering from over-extension but also troubled
co-existence with NATO, US
• EU approach similar to China’s: investing in infrastructure, economic
growth in emerging regions, limiting military activity
• US-led NATO contributing to disasters along its frontier: Syria (and as
a result Turkey), Libya, etc
• Syrian refugees brining EU to breaking point
• Brexit correlated with limits on UK military engagements, criticism of
Iraq War and pro-Russian sentiment
• EU cannot let pro-US Eastern flank dominate policy
• Must adopt more flexible approach as it moves east and south

9. Conclusion
• Trump’s election offers a genuine opportunity to improve US foreign
policy and as a result international affairs in general
• Less military adventurism will reduce stress on existing institutions
such as EU, NATO, relations with Russia
• Conservative approach to military may accelerate EU army, China’s
role in security
• Effort to establish and support shared values with China is key to
ensuring peace, avoiding conflicts

10. Thank you!
Brien Desilets, Claret Consulting
bdesilets@claretconsult.com
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