This document provides an analysis and investment recommendation on Big Lots from Canaccord Genuity. Some key points:
1) Canaccord believes improved product initiatives, including a broader assortment of consumables, will drive sales momentum and support same-store sales growth at Big Lots in fiscal year 2012.
2) Forecasts include double-digit bottom-line growth for Big Lots in fiscal year 2012 with EPS increasing to $3.50, and EPS growth at a five-year compound annual growth rate of 12%.
3) Shares of Big Lots currently trade at a discount to peer discount retailers but offer above-average growth potential, leading Canaccord to reiterate their "Buy" recommendation on
Toronto real estate statistics january 2012John Helfrich
Toronto Real Estate Market Statistics for January 2012. Focus on East End Toronto Homes and East End Toronto Real Estate. The Toronto Beaches, Riverdale, Leslieville, Danforth Village, East Danforth, Danforth Mosaic.
Analytical Thinking is a fortnightly newsletter from the UK Business Analytics team.
The purpose of the newsletter is to raise awareness about why analytics is a hot topic at the moment, where is analytics being referenced in the press and in what ways are organisations using analytics.
Business Analytics (Operational Research) is part of the Digital Transformation team in Capgemini Consulting UK
Toronto real estate statistics january 2012John Helfrich
Toronto Real Estate Market Statistics for January 2012. Focus on East End Toronto Homes and East End Toronto Real Estate. The Toronto Beaches, Riverdale, Leslieville, Danforth Village, East Danforth, Danforth Mosaic.
Analytical Thinking is a fortnightly newsletter from the UK Business Analytics team.
The purpose of the newsletter is to raise awareness about why analytics is a hot topic at the moment, where is analytics being referenced in the press and in what ways are organisations using analytics.
Business Analytics (Operational Research) is part of the Digital Transformation team in Capgemini Consulting UK
CLC-SWOT Matrix, BCG Matrix, and IE MatrixJose Alonso,WilheminaRossi174
CLC-SWOT Matrix, BCG Matrix, and IE Matrix
Jose Alonso, Tamberlyn Crayton, Dinaja Dowdy, Pauline Morgan, and Brad Overson
Colangelo College of Business, Grand Canyon University Comment by Daniel Smith: Team - well done. Your write-up was thorough, clearly presented and you included critical thinking in your write-up. I hope that this exercise was helpful for you.
Dr. Smith
MGT 660: Strategic Management
May 19, 2021
SWOT Matrix
Strengths
1. Strong brand- Starbucks is a popular well-known coffee brand that continues to prove its self-year after year in growing popularity and sales.
2. Public presence – Starbucks has increased its locations drastically and continues to build its presence in every neighborhood.
3. Supply chain- With having stores across the globe they have managed to become known for their supply chain with its global network of suppliers.
4. Competition acquisition- Due to the financial success, Starbucks has been able to acquire some of its competitors such as Seattle’s Best taking over their portion of the market share. Comment by Daniel Smith: Reasonable strengths - excellent
Weaknesses
1. First and foremost, as most of us coffee drinkers are aware, Starbucks is expensive!
2. They offer coffee just the same as Circle K, Dunkin, McDonald’s, along with the ability to make it yourself in the convenience of your own home.
3. They do not change what they make for the culture, if you have been on vacation, they do not alter what they offer to meet the local culture (could be a strength as well).
Opportunities
1. Coffee is continually growing in popularity, especially amongst the younger generation. The opportunity for expansion is quite high and probably in other countries as well.
2. The opportunity to develop something new and unique to the coffee world.
3. Opportunity to work on getting into more home brewing coffees.
4. Increase online sales (like subscribe and save-similar to amazon)
5. Order from your phone for a pick-up or delivery
Threats
1. Competitors tasting better for a lower cost.
2. Current competitors can make better moves to gain market share.
3. Take over from a local small business, not a chain.
4. Economic Recession- Starbucks coffee is a luxury, not a necessity.
BCG Matrix
The BCG Matrix for Starbucks will help Starbucks in implementing the business-level strategies for its business units. The analysis will first identify where the strategic business units of Starbucks fall within the BCG Matrix for Starbucks.
Stars Question Marks
The financial services strategic business unit is a star in the BCG matrix of Starbucks. It operates in a market that shows potential in the future.
Starbucks earns a significant amount of its income from this SBU. Starbucks should vertically integrate by acquiring other firms in the supply chain ...
FEEDBACK FOR REVISINGI want you to imagine you are writing .docxmydrynan
FEEDBACK FOR REVISING:
I want you to imagine you are writing for a C-level person. Don;t think it is me. This is someone who has never read anything else you have written. With that in mind, what would that person need to read in order to better understand the market and the competitors? Also, does that person need more details in the SWOT to better understand the situation they are facing? Tell me more about the competition in your own words. I can read a balance sheet, but tell me who these other competitors are and why they are getting the better of Kohl's.
Read the paper again and work on the flow. Does it flow or does it feel choppy? (again, this is a general comment and may not be specific to your paper).
Is the main problem a drop in sales? Or, is it that Kohl's isn't able to innovate and deliver what customers want? Sales are a symptom of another problem. Focus on the problem. You can add the symptoms, but focus on the problem.
When you are addressing each problem in your solutions section, make sure you address each problem as you listed them in the previous section. For instance, if you say:
Kohl's problems are:
1) lack of innovation
2) poor marketing
3) strong competition
Then, in the solutions section you would write about each problem in that order. Don't make the reader think. Especially in a business setting. Most likely, the reader will only read the Executive Summary. But, I will be reading the entire paper.
I will be really looking at your problem descriptions, your solutions, your implementation plans, and success metrics. These are relatively new section (with the exception of the problem descriptions). Regardless if I agree or disagree with the solutions, I want to hear you make the case for why your proposed solution is THE solution. Does that make sense?
Surname 1
Term Paper Title
Name
BA 301 Final Term Paper
Section Number (e.g., Section 002)
Date
Table of Contents
3Executive Summary
Situation Analysis
4
Problem Analysis & Description
9
Solution
s, Evaluation & Recommendation12
Implementation Plan15
Success Metrics17
1Bibliography
8
Executive Summary
Kohl Corporation is a reputed player in the lifestyle industry. The company has weathered a fair share of storms, with the global economic crisis in 2008 hitting it the hardest. However, the company has maintained strong performance in the aftermath of the crisis, setting good records on growth. In the last three years, however, revenues have grown at a slower pace than expected, mainly due to ineffective marketing strategies.
The paper examines the situation for Kohl, citing the need for solutions towards a very profitable future. First, the Y generation, commonly called the millennials, is tech-savvy, preferring to do shopping online as opposed to stores. That raises the need for Kohl to construct solutions on this level to take advantage of the economic growth, increase consumption and trendy lifestyles of the millennials. In so doing, the compa ...
This document brings together a set
of latest data points and publicly
available information relevant for
Retail & Consumer Goods Industry.
We are very excited to share this
content and believe that readers will
benefit from this periodic publication immensely.
NO1 Uk Divorce problem uk all amil baba in karachi,lahore,pakistan talaq ka m...Amil Baba Dawood bangali
Contact with Dawood Bhai Just call on +92322-6382012 and we'll help you. We'll solve all your problems within 12 to 24 hours and with 101% guarantee and with astrology systematic. If you want to take any personal or professional advice then also you can call us on +92322-6382012 , ONLINE LOVE PROBLEM & Other all types of Daily Life Problem's.Then CALL or WHATSAPP us on +92322-6382012 and Get all these problems solutions here by Amil Baba DAWOOD BANGALI
#vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore#blackmagicformarriage #aamilbaba #kalajadu #kalailam #taweez #wazifaexpert #jadumantar #vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore #blackmagicforlove #blackmagicformarriage #aamilbaba #kalajadu #kalailam #taweez #wazifaexpert #jadumantar #vashikaranspecialist #astrologer #palmistry #amliyaat #taweez #manpasandshadi #horoscope #spiritual #lovelife #lovespell #marriagespell#aamilbabainpakistan #amilbabainkarachi #powerfullblackmagicspell #kalajadumantarspecialist #realamilbaba #AmilbabainPakistan #astrologerincanada #astrologerindubai #lovespellsmaster #kalajaduspecialist #lovespellsthatwork #aamilbabainlahore #Amilbabainuk #amilbabainspain #amilbabaindubai #Amilbabainnorway #amilbabainkrachi #amilbabainlahore #amilbabaingujranwalan #amilbabainislamabad
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
1. Daily Letter | 1
17 April 2012
Big Lots
Laura Champine, CFA 212.389.8056
BUY lchampine@canaccordgenuity.com
BIG : NYSE : US$45.32
Target: US$58.00 Jason Smith 212.389.8059
jsmith@canaccordgenuity.com
COMPANY STATISTICS:
52-week Range: 28.89 - 47.22
Consumer & Retail -- Specialty Retail
Market Cap (M): US$2,963.8
Shares Out (M): 65 DEEP DIVE: WE EXPECT PRODUCT
EARNINGS SUMMARY:
FYE Jan 2011A 2012E 2013E
INITIATIVES TO DRIVE SALES
P/Sales (x):
Revenue (M):
0.6x
5,202.3
0.5x
5,617.5
0.5x
5,846.8
MOMENTUM AT BIG
EPS: 2.99 3.50 3.90
P/E (x): 15.2x 13.0x 11.6x Investment recommendation
We believe BIG’s improving product assortment will drive traffic
Revenue (M): Q1 1,227.3 1,337.5 1,396.6
Q2 1,167.1 1,263.4 1,317.7 and support the company’s SSS momentum. The company
Q3 1,138.3 1,226.3 1,289.3 should benefit from efforts to shift sales mix to higher-demand
Q4 1,669.6 1,790.3 1,843.2
Total 5,202.3 5,617.5 5,846.8 categories, broadening its selection of consumables and
EPS: Q1 0.70 0.81 0.90 underpenetrated discretionary segments. At 13x our FY12 EPS
Q2 0.50 0.56 0.65
Q3 0.06 0.14 0.21 estimate and 6x FY12E EV/EBITDA, we don’t believe shares fully
Q4 1.75 1.99 2.15 reflect the SSS growth we are projecting in FY12 and beyond. We
Total 2.99 3.50 3.90
believe BIG would only need to generate SSS growth in the LSD
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE: range to achieve the significant upside potential we project.
Investment highlights
• We estimate BIG will generate FY12 SSS growth of 2.9% on
top of +0.1%, which would be the company’s highest full-year
increase since FY06.
• We forecast double-digit bottom-line growth in FY12 and
expect EPS to increase at a five-year CAGR of 12%.
• Shares trade at only 13x our FY12 EPS estimate and 6x
Source: Interactive Data Corporation
FY12E EV/EBITDA. BIG trades at lower multiples than its
COMPANY DESCRIPTION: discounter retail peers despite above-average FY12 growth
BIG is the nation's largest broadline closeout retailer,
operating approximately 1,450 stores in the U.S. and 82 prospects.
in Canada. BIG offers brand-name closeouts from over
3,000 manufacturers. The product assortment includes
consumables, furniture, home furnishings, seasonal, and
electronics.
All amounts in US$ unless otherwise noted.
Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Financial Inc. (CF : TSX | CF. : AIM)
The recommendations and opinions expressed in this Investment Research accurately reflect the Investment Analyst’s personal,
independent
independent and objective views about any and all the Designated Investments and Relevant Issuers discussed herein. For important
information, please see the Important Disclosures section in the appendix of this document or visit Canaccord Genuity’s Online Disclosure
Database.
2. Daily Letter | 2
17 April 2012
WE BELIEVE AN IMPROVED ASSORTMENT WILL DRIVE
TRAFFIC AND SUPPORT SSS MOMENTUM
In May 2011 BIG bolstered its merchandising team by hiring Doug Wurl to serve
as EVP of merchandising. Wurl brought a wealth of merchandising experience,
having served as general merchandise manager of Sears’ home division for over
four years and in leadership positions at Shopko and Macy’s in the years prior.
Wurl’s impact on the company’s merchandising strategies and product
assortment can already be seen in his short time as GMM. Since his arrival, BIG
has taken a more aggressive approach to its closeout strategy, which has enabled
it to broaden its product assortment, specifically in consumables. According to
management, Wurl has been able to garner better deals from vendors on a more-
consistent basis than the company had in the past. BIG has also added more
upscale vendors to its roster and has expanded the breadth of its global sourcing.
BIG has become more competitive in its pricing strategy, which we believe will
continue to drive traffic as budget-conscious shoppers seek out values. Additional
changes include a narrower focus on the merchandising schedule, with planning
throughout the year now completed in nine-week increments, similar to how the
company had previously planned for its Christmas assortment.
The consumables segment is BIG’s largest product category, accounting for 31%
of total sales. BIG continued to improve its product assortment throughout FY11,
specifically adding a more consistent mix of consumables. BIG has expanded its
consumables assortment to include more gourmet and specialty items. BIG has
also heightened its focused on improving marketing and in-store execution,
including more prevalent signage and the addition of the “Wall of Values” which
highlights deals within consumables. Closeout remains the focus within
consumables, making up about 70%-80% on average of the total assortment. BIG
has broadened its SKU base, which we believe will add some stability in the
category. Management commented that an expanded selection of gourmet
products and European imports have been well received by consumers. The
Fresh Finds captive label program was expanded in Q3, and it continues to
resonate with customers. BIG’s captive label brands are developed jointly with
various domestic and overseas manufacturers, using a well-respected third party
to help develop the line. BIG has been able to generate brand identity and as a
result pricing power with some of its captive label products. Sales trends
improved in the consumables category in FY11, with comparable sales up in the
mid- to high-single-digit range in the final three quarters of the year. We believe
an improved consumables assortment was largely responsible for BIG’s SSS
recovery in H2/11. We expect a broader mix of basics and the addition of
specialty items and more captive label brands to drive traffic into stores in 2012.
3. Daily Letter | 3
17 April 2012
Figure 1: An improved consumables assortment helped generate SSS momentum in FY11
Q1:11 Q2:11 Q3:11 Q4:11
Consumables yr./yr. growth 3.7% 8.2% 11.4% 9.5%
SSS -3.6% -1.5% 1.7% 3.4%
Source: Company reports
BIG should benefit from an improved product mix within its discretionary
assortment as well. The company has shifted its product mix away from apparel
and its traditional toy business, increasing inventory and allocating more floor
space to better-performing categories. BIG offered a larger seasonal assortment in
Q4, adding square footage to display trees and trim. This resulted in a
comparable sales increase in the low double digits for the category. We believe
the seasonal business sustained momentum in Q1, boosted by warmer weather
and a high-quality product assortment that will resonate with shoppers. The
seasonal business faces an easy Q1 comparison as difficult weather resulted in DD
comparable sales declines in northern regions of the country in FY11.
The company is in the process of completing the expansion of its home business,
specifically adding floor space for merchandise such as bedding and table top
items to better leverage the strength of its furniture business. Management
expects sales growth within the category to accelerate as FY12 progresses. Our
recent store checks revealed an attractive assortment of seasonal and home
inventory. It is notable the company’s new GMM has a wealth of experience in
home, and we believe he has brought in buyers with whom he has worked in the
past.
Electronics is a category BIG believes can excel beyond a seasonal business and
be a full-year growth driver. Electronics turned in a strong performance in Q4
with comparable sales up nearly 20%, and management commented on the latest
conference call that sales momentum has continued in Q1. We believe BIG will
benefit from an increased inventory of popular products such as tablets, chargers,
headphones and ear-buds, flash drives and memory cards, MP3 players, phone
and tablet covers as well as other accessories for mobile devices. The focus here
will be on low-end and discount models that will likely appeal to BIG shoppers.
The company has not significantly expanded floor space for electronics, but the
merchandise is receiving greater exposure in stores. As small items are taking the
place of TVs, the company can significantly improve SKU range without needing
to take square footage from other categories.
4. Daily Letter | 4
17 April 2012
Figure 2: FY11 sales mix by product category
Play 'n Wear
Consumables
15%
31%
Seasonal
13%
Hardlines & Other
8% Home
16%
Furniture
17%
Category Products
Consumables Food, health, beauty, plastics, paper, and pet
Furniture Upholstery, mattresses, ready-to-assemble and case goods
Home Domestics, stationary, and home decorative
Play n' Wear Electronics, toys, jewelery, infant, and apparel
Seasonal Lawn and garden, Christmas, and summer assortments
Hardlines & Other Appliances, tools, and home maintenance
Source: Company reports, Canaccord Genuity
We expect BIG will generate more-consistent SSS growth in FY12. Our Q1
estimate calls for SSS growth of 4% on top of -3.6%. Management guided for Q1
SSS to be up 2%-4%, and the consensus estimate is 2.7%. For FY12, we forecast a
SSS increase of 2.9% on top of +0.1%, which is a 40bps improvement in the two-
year stacked SSS trend. This is at the high end of management’s guidance range
of +2% to +3% and would represent BIG’s largest full-year SSS gain since FY06.
5. Daily Letter | 5
17 April 2012
Figure 3: We estimate BIG will generate consistent SSS growth in FY12
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
Q1:07 Q1:08 Q1:09 Q1:10 Q1:11 Q1:12E
Yr./yr. SSS growth
Source: Company reports, Canaccord Genuity
WE FORECAST A GROSS MARGIN RECOVERY IN H2/12
BIG’s gross margin contracted 85bps in FY11, largely the result of more
competitive pricing and the shift in sales mix to lower-margin consumable
products. We believe consumables are in higher demand and turn faster in stores,
which should translate to increased levels of store traffic as the assortment
improves. The shift in mix within the discretionary businesses should help boost
profit given the higher-margin nature of the home and furniture businesses.
Lower markdown activity should also help drive margin expansion. Warmer
weather should result in improved pricing yr./yr. within seasonal in H1, while
BIG plans to lessen its reliance on the segment in Q3, given the high level of
markdowns that were necessary in the October quarter in FY11. We forecast
gross margin expansion of 60bps in H2/12 as an improved product assortment
supports SSS gains and BIG begins to lap a period of higher markdown activity.
We estimate BIG’s gross margin will expand 10bps in FY12 and increase 10bps-
15bps annually in FY13-FY16.
WE ESTIMATE DOUBLE-DIGIT EPS GROWTH IN FY12 AND
BEYOND
Our Q1 forecast calls for operating EPS of $0.81, at the high end of management’s
guidance range of $0.75-$0.81 and $0.02 above consensus. We project gross
margin contraction of 55bps in Q1 as a result of the continued shift in mix to
lower-margin consumables and more-competitive pricing. We forecast a flat
SG&A expense rate with leverage on 4% SSS growth offset by higher depreciation
6. Daily Letter | 6
17 April 2012
and incentive costs. For FY12, we estimate EPS of $3.50. FY12 guidance is $3.40-
$3.50, and the consensus estimate is $3.50 with a lower implied share count
versus our model adding $0.04. We are projecting EPS to increase at a five-year
CAGR of 12%.
CANADA APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING, BUT IT IS STILL IN
THE EARLY STAGES OF ITS TURNAROUND
In mid-2011 BIG completed the $20MM acquisition of Liquidation World, an 89-
store closeout franchise in Canada. Our initial visit to three LW locations in
Calgary shortly after the acquisition revealed obscure locations, dated buildings,
and sparse inventory excluding a solid furniture assortment. BIG closed seven
locations and invested $46MM in the Canadian business over H2:11 to build
inventory, staff operations, and refurbish store locations. Q4 sales of $37MM
came in $7MM above the high end of guidance, which management credited to a
strong initial response to the introduction of new products and categories within
stores. We view this as a positive sign given the limited assortment available
through much of the quarter. Inventory ended FY11 at $22MM, and management
plans to sustain levels in the $25MM to $30MM range. BIG expects to reach this
level by Q2, but adjustments to product assortment will continue through Q3.
Similar to the U.S., we expect BIG to shift its product mix to more in-demand
items. This translates to a broader assortment of consumables, which we believe
will be a healthy traffic driver. The Canadian operations will not likely see
significant marketing support in FY12 as BIG is focused on testing store execution
once shelves are fully stocked before launching any sizable marketing agenda.
For FY12 BIG guided for sales in Canada of $140MM-$150MM, up from $60MM
over seven months in FY11. Guidance calls for the Canadian operations to be a
drag on EPS of $0.21-$0.26 as BIG continues to build up inventory, recruit talent,
and refurbish stores. Management indicated it was close to hiring a head
merchant, which would largely complete the initial phase of its staffing efforts.
Sales dollars are expected to increase and operating losses to decline sequentially
throughout FY12 as inventory levels improve. BIG is targeting a breakeven
bottom line by FY13.
BIG TRADES AT ATTRACTIVE MULTIPLES COMPARED WITH
ITS DISCOUNT RETAIL PEERS
We believe shares of BIG are currently undervalued, trading at approximately a
20% discount to peers. We think this discount is based on BIG’s inconsistent sales
trends and expect the gap to close as the company reports improved SSS growth
in 2012. Based on our FY12 EPS estimates, shares trade at 13x EPS and 6x
EV/EBITDA, below the peer averages of 16x and 8x, respectively. We don’t
believe the discount is warranted given our forecast for above-average growth in
EPS.
7. Daily Letter | 7
17 April 2012
Figure 4: Shares trade below the peer group’s average
CY12E CY12E CY12 Sales CY12 EPS
Discount retailers P/E EV/EBITDA Growth Growth
Big Lots 13x 6.1x 8% 17%
Dollar General* 17x 9.1x 8% 16%
Dollar Tree 20x 10.4x 12% 21%
Family Dollar 17x 8.3x 9% 18%
Fred's* 15x 5.6x 5% 15%
Ross Stores 18x 9.1x 8% 16%
Target* 14x 7.4x 5% 0%
TJX Companies 18x 9.2x 7% 17%
Wal-Mart* 13x 7.2x 6% 8%
Average 16x 8.1x 8% 14%
*Based on consensus estimates
Source: Canaccord Genuity, Thomson Reuters
OUR DCF ANALYSIS INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
SHARE-PRICE GAINS
On our FY12 estimates, BIG shares currently trade at 11x FY12 EV/NOPAT, but
our model suggests the stock should trade at a 14x multiple. This suggests BIG
holds potential upside of over 25% in the next 12 months.
8. Daily Letter | 8
17 April 2012
Figure 5: Our discounted NOPAT model implies potential upside of over 25%
Discount rate 10%
Annual NOPAT Growth 4%
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
NOPAT 267 293 322 350 379 394 410 426 443 461 461
Y/Y growth 10% 10% 9% 8% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 0%
PV of NOPAT 242 240 239 236 231 217 205 193 182 171 171
Sum of PVs 2,156
Terminal multiple 10 (Implies no growth beyond terminal year)
Terminal value (PV) 1,647
Enterprise value 3,803
Implied multiple 14x
Actual multiple 11x
Potential
Actual Implied Upside
FY11E NOPAT 267 267
Multiple 11x 14x
Enterprise value 2,961 3,803
Plus: cash 69 69
Less: debt (66) (66)
Equity value 2,964 3,806
Shares o/s 65 65
Value per share $45.32 $58.19 28%
Source: Canaccord Genuity
10. Daily Letter | 10
17 April 2012
Valuation
Our PT of $58 is based on our discounted NOPAT model. Shares currently trade at
a FY12E EV/NOPAT multiple of 11x. Our model suggests BIG should trade at a
multiple of 14x. Assuming shares approach their intrinsic value over the next 12
months, BIG offers potential upside of over 25% over its current price. Based on
our FY12 estimates, shares currently trade at 13x EPS and 6x EV/EBITDA. Our
PT implies multiples of 17x and 8x, respectively.
Investment risks
A slowdown in sales stemming from a product assortment that does not resonate
with shoppers would pose a risk to our projections. Macroeconomic factors and
extreme weather could also impact sales trends. Rising cost pressures could
impact margins. The LW acquisition could require a greater capital investment to
refurbish stores and replenish inventories than management anticipates.
11. Daily Letter | 11
17 April 2012
APPENDIX: IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Analyst Certification: Each authoring analyst of Canaccord Genuity whose name appears on the front page of this investment
research hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in this investment research
accurately reflect the authoring analyst’s personal, independent and objective views about any and all of the
designated investments or relevant issuers discussed herein that are within such authoring analyst’s coverage
universe and (ii) no part of the authoring analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the authoring analyst in the investment
research.
Site Visit: An analyst has visited the issuer's material operations in Columbus, Ohio. No payment or reimbursement was
received from the issuer for the related travel costs.
Price Chart:*
Distribution of Ratings: Coverage Universe
Global Stock Ratings IB Clients
(as of 2 April 2012) Rating # % %
Buy 503 59.3% 31.0%
Speculative Buy 91 10.7% 73.6%
Hold 232 27.4% 18.5%
Sell 22 2.6% 9.1%
848 100%
Canaccord Ratings BUY: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of over 10% during the next 12 months.
System: HOLD: The stock is expected to generate risk-adjusted returns of 0-10% during the next 12 months.
SELL: The stock is expected to generate negative risk-adjusted returns during the next 12 months.
NOT RATED: Canaccord Genuity does not provide research coverage of the relevant issuer.
“Risk-adjusted return” refers to the expected return in relation to the amount of risk associated with the
designated investment or the relevant issuer.
Risk Qualifier: SPECULATIVE: Stocks bear significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamental
criteria. Investments in the stock may result in material loss.
12. Daily Letter | 12
17 April 2012
Canaccord Research Disclosures as of 17 April 2012
Company Disclosure
Big Lots 5, 7
1 The relevant issuer currently is, or in the past 12 months was, a client of Canaccord Genuity or its affiliated
companies. During this period, Canaccord Genuity or its affiliated companies provided the following services
to the relevant issuer:
A. investment banking services.
B. non-investment banking securities-related services.
C. non-securities related services.
2 In the past 12 months, Canaccord Genuity or its affiliated companies have received compensation for
Corporate Finance/Investment Banking services from the relevant issuer.
3 In the past 12 months, Canaccord Genuity or any of its affiliated companies have been lead manager, co-lead
manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities of the relevant issuer or any publicly disclosed offer
of securities of the relevant issuer or in any related derivatives.
4 Canaccord Genuity acts as corporate broker for the relevant issuer and/or Canaccord Genuity or any of its
affiliated companies may have an agreement with the relevant issuer relating to the provision of Corporate
Finance/Investment Banking services.
5 Canaccord Genuity or any of its affiliated companies is a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities
of the relevant issuer or in any related derivatives.
6 In the past 12 months, Canaccord Genuity, its partners, affiliated companies, officers or directors, or any
authoring analyst involved in the preparation of this investment research has provided services to the
relevant issuer for remuneration, other than normal course investment advisory or trade execution services.
7 Canaccord Genuity intends to seek or expects to receive compensation for Corporate Finance/Investment
Banking services from the relevant issuer in the next six months.
8 The authoring analyst, a member of the authoring analyst’s household, or any individual directly involved in
the preparation of this investment research, has a long position in the shares or derivatives, or has any other
financial interest in the relevant issuer, the value of which increases as the value of the underlying equity
increases.
9 The authoring analyst, a member of the authoring analyst’s household, or any individual directly involved in
the preparation of this investment research, has a short position in the shares or derivatives, or has any
other financial interest in the relevant issuer, the value of which increases as the value of the underlying
equity decreases.
10 Those persons identified as the author(s) of this investment research, or any individual involved in the
preparation of this investment research, have purchased/received shares in the relevant issuer prior to a
public offering of those shares, and such person’s name and details are disclosed above.
11 A partner, director, officer, employee or agent of Canaccord Genuity and its affiliated companies, or a
member of his/her household, is an officer, or director, or serves as an advisor or board member of the
relevant issuer and/or one of its subsidiaries, and such person’s name is disclosed above.
12 As of the month end immediately preceding the date of publication of this investment research, or the prior
month end if publication is within 10 days following a month end, Canaccord Genuity or its affiliate
companies, in the aggregate, beneficially owned 1% or more of any class of the total issued share capital or
other common equity securities of the relevant issuer or held any other financial interests in the relevant
issuer which are significant in relation to the investment research (as disclosed above).
13 As of the month end immediately preceding the date of publication of this investment research, or the prior
month end if publication is within 10 days following a month end, the relevant issuer owned 1% or more of
any class of the total issued share capital in Canaccord Genuity or any of its affiliated companies.
14 Other specific disclosures as described above.
Canaccord Genuity is the business name used by certain subsidiaries of Canaccord Financial Inc., including
Canaccord Genuity Inc., Canaccord Genuity Limited, Canaccord Genuity Securities LLC, and Canaccord
Genuity Corp.
The authoring analysts who are responsible for the preparation of this investment research are employed by
Canaccord Genuity Corp. a Canadian broker-dealer with principal offices located in Vancouver, Calgary,
Toronto, Montreal, or Canaccord Genuity Inc., a US broker-dealer with principal offices located in Boston,
New York, San Francisco and Houston or Canaccord Genuity Securities LLC, a US broker-dealer with
principal offices located in New York or Canaccord Genuity Limited., a UK broker-dealer with principal
offices located in London and Edinburgh (UK).
In the event that this is compendium investment research (covering six or more relevant issuers), Canaccord
Genuity and its affiliated companies may choose to provide specific disclosures of the subject companies by
13. Daily Letter | 13
17 April 2012
reference, as well as its policies and procedures regarding the dissemination of investment research. To
access this material or for more information, please send a request to Canaccord Genuity Research, Attn:
Disclosures, P.O. Box 10337 Pacific Centre, 2200-609 Granville Street, Vancouver, BC, Canada V7Y 1H2 or
disclosures@canaccordgenuity.com.
The authoring analysts who are responsible for the preparation of this investment research have received (or
will receive) compensation based upon (among other factors) the Corporate Finance/Investment Banking
revenues and general profits of Canaccord Genuity. However, such authoring analysts have not received, and
will not receive, compensation that is directly based upon or linked to one or more specific Corporate
Finance/Investment Banking activities, or to recommendations contained in the investment research.
Canaccord Genuity and its affiliated companies may have a Corporate Finance/Investment Banking or other
relationship with the company that is the subject of this investment research and may trade in any of the
designated investments mentioned herein either for their own account or the accounts of their customers, in
good faith or in the normal course of market making. Accordingly, Canaccord Genuity or their affiliated
companies, principals or employees (other than the authoring analyst(s) who prepared this investment
research) may at any time have a long or short position in any such designated investments, related
designated investments or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon.
Some regulators require that a firm must establish, implement and make available a policy for managing
conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication or distribution of investment research. This investment
research has been prepared in accordance with Canaccord Genuity’s policy on managing conflicts of interest,
and information barriers or firewalls have been used where appropriate. Canaccord Genuity’s policy is
available upon request.
The information contained in this investment research has been compiled by Canaccord Genuity from sources
believed to be reliable, but (with the exception of the information about Canaccord Genuity) no representation
or warranty, express or implied, is made by Canaccord Genuity, its affiliated companies or any other person
as to its fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness. Canaccord Genuity has not independently verified
the facts, assumptions, and estimates contained herein. All estimates, opinions and other information
contained in this investment research constitute Canaccord Genuity’s judgement as of the date of this
investment research, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal
responsibility or liability.
Canaccord Genuity’s salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market
commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our proprietary trading desk that reflect opinions that are
contrary to the opinions expressed in this investment research. Canaccord Genuity’s affiliates, principal
trading desk, and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the
recommendations or views expressed in this investment research.
This investment research is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or
solicitation to buy or sell any designated investments discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or
solicitation would be prohibited. As a result, the designated investments discussed in this investment
research may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This investment research is not, and under no
circumstances should be construed as, a solicitation to act as a securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction
by any person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on the business of a securities broker or
dealer in that jurisdiction. This material is prepared for general circulation to clients and does not have
regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors
should obtain advice based on their own individual circumstances before making an investment decision. To
the fullest extent permitted by law, none of Canaccord Genuity, its affiliated companies or any other person
accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from or relating to any use of the
information contained in this investment research.
For Canadian Residents: This Investment Research has been approved by Canaccord Genuity Corp., which accepts sole responsibility
for this Investment Research and its dissemination in Canada. Canadian clients wishing to effect transactions
in any Designated Investment discussed should do so through a qualified salesperson of Canaccord Genuity
Corp. in their particular jurisdiction.
For United Kingdom This investment research is distributed in the United Kingdom, as third party research by Canaccord Genuity
Residents: Limited, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. This research is for
distribution only to persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients only and is exempt from
the general restrictions in section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 on the communication of
invitations or inducements to engage in investment activity on the grounds that it is being distributed in the
United Kingdom only to persons of a kind described in Article 19(5) (Investment Professionals) and 49(2)
(High Net Worth companies, unincorporated associations etc) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000
(Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended). It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or
indirectly, to any other class of persons. This material is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to retail
clients, as defined under the rules of the Financial Services Authority.
For Jersey, Guernsey This research is sent to you by Collins Stewart (CI) Limited ("CSCI") for information purposes and is not to be