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Measles Hysteria: 2015
Mark F. Blaxill
Health Choice
February 20, 2015
MEASLES MORTALITY IN THE 20TH CENTURY
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Deathsper100K
Measles vaccine licensed
Measles had ceased to be a deadly disease
long before the vaccine was introduced…
WHY MEASLES IS NO LONGER A THREAT IN THE U.S.
The U.S population risk of dying from measles has fallen essentially to zero
during the 20th century, for one major and one minor reason
1. Most important, measles long ago became a “self-limiting infection of short
duration, moderate severity, and low fatality.”1 Death rates among those
infected fell to very low levels
2. Of lesser importance, wild-type measles cases have also fallen to very low
levels following the introduction of the live virus measles vaccine
Since 2006,
• There have been over 1500 cases of wild-type measles in the U.S.
• There have been zero deaths from wild-type measles (the last in 2003)2
• Over 80 cases of deaths related to measles containing vaccines have been
reported to VAERS3
1. Alexander D. Langmuir et al., The Importance of Measles as a Health Problem, 52 AM. J. PUB. HEALTH 1, 1 (1962).
2. CDC spokesperson Helen (Amy) Rowland to Health Choice , January 30, 2015
3. Search for measles-containing vaccines, vaccination years 2006-2015 and death
http://www.medalerts.org/vaersdb/index.php
THE CHANGING RISK OF DEATH FROM A MEASLES
INFECTION: 1911-1965
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960
In the early 20th century, measles was
a dangerous illness, between 1-5%
of those who caught it died
After World War II, measles
became a mostly benign
childhood illness, with
less than 1 in 1000
dying from it
MEASLES INCIDENCE AND MORTALITY IN THE 20TH CENTURY
0
200
400
600
800
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Casesper100K
First measles vaccine licensed in 1963
0
5
10
15
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Deathsper100K
Measles vaccine licensed
Measles had ceased to be a deadly disease
long before the vaccination was introduced…
…but the measles vaccine did effectively
eliminate a common childhood illness
1. Measles was a
common childhood
disease through
the mid-60s…
BACKGROUND:
POSTWAR MEASLES CASES AND DEATHS IN THE US
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1…until cases began
declining with the 1963
monovalent vaccine
2. Some deaths
occurred despite
a low death rate…
2…then deaths became
rare as cases declined
3. Oddly, cases
seemed to rise
in the 80s with MMR II…
3…with a dangerous 1989-91
epidemic and surge in deaths
4. From the 1990s onward,
measles has become rare and
deaths have gone to near zero
THERE IS NOTHING UNUSUAL OR EXTREME ABOUT
THE RECENT MEASLES OUTBREAK
Total CA OH NY WA MN TX All Other
2009 71 9 1 18 1 1 1 40
2010 63 27 2 8 1 3 0 22
2011 220 31 0 32 4 26 6 122
2012 55 8 1 4 0 0 0 42
2013
through
8/24
159
(187 FY)
15 0 65 1 2 25 66
2014 645 34 382 9 34 0 8 178
2015
through
2/14
141 98 0 2 4 1 1 35
CDC DESCRIPTION OF RECENT OUTBREAKS
MN 2011
• “The largest outbreak occurred among 21 persons in a Minnesota population
in which many children were unvaccinated because of parental concerns
about the safety of measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine.”
TX 2013
• “In an ongoing outbreak in Texas, 20 confirmed cases have been reported as
of August 24 among members of a church community.”
NY 2013
• “A total of 58 cases* were identified, including six generations of measles
infection in two neighborhoods of the borough of Brooklyn. All cases were in
members of the orthodox Jewish community. No case was identified in a
person who had documented measles vaccination at the time of exposure
OH 2014
• “The U.S. experienced 23 measles outbreaks in 2014, including one large
outbreak of 383 cases, occurring primarily among unvaccinated Amish
communities in Ohio.”
Summary points
• The hysteria over measles is unfounded. Measles is not Ebola
• Measles long since ceased to be a dangerous illness for healthy
children. Most adults born before the mid-1960s all acquired
measles in childhood and experienced it as a minor inconvenience
• The injection of measles via live virus vaccines has made measles
increasingly rare and easier to fear. Measles should not cause panic
• The measles vaccine virus can shed and cause infections in
unhealthy children. Measles vaccination is not a civic duty
• Measles-containing vaccines like MMR now cause many more
deaths than measles
• The “Disneyland measles” episode is no larger or more serious than
other recent outbreaks

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Measles Hysteria, 2015

  • 1. Measles Hysteria: 2015 Mark F. Blaxill Health Choice February 20, 2015
  • 2. MEASLES MORTALITY IN THE 20TH CENTURY 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Deathsper100K Measles vaccine licensed Measles had ceased to be a deadly disease long before the vaccine was introduced…
  • 3. WHY MEASLES IS NO LONGER A THREAT IN THE U.S. The U.S population risk of dying from measles has fallen essentially to zero during the 20th century, for one major and one minor reason 1. Most important, measles long ago became a “self-limiting infection of short duration, moderate severity, and low fatality.”1 Death rates among those infected fell to very low levels 2. Of lesser importance, wild-type measles cases have also fallen to very low levels following the introduction of the live virus measles vaccine Since 2006, • There have been over 1500 cases of wild-type measles in the U.S. • There have been zero deaths from wild-type measles (the last in 2003)2 • Over 80 cases of deaths related to measles containing vaccines have been reported to VAERS3 1. Alexander D. Langmuir et al., The Importance of Measles as a Health Problem, 52 AM. J. PUB. HEALTH 1, 1 (1962). 2. CDC spokesperson Helen (Amy) Rowland to Health Choice , January 30, 2015 3. Search for measles-containing vaccines, vaccination years 2006-2015 and death http://www.medalerts.org/vaersdb/index.php
  • 4. THE CHANGING RISK OF DEATH FROM A MEASLES INFECTION: 1911-1965 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 In the early 20th century, measles was a dangerous illness, between 1-5% of those who caught it died After World War II, measles became a mostly benign childhood illness, with less than 1 in 1000 dying from it
  • 5. MEASLES INCIDENCE AND MORTALITY IN THE 20TH CENTURY 0 200 400 600 800 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Casesper100K First measles vaccine licensed in 1963 0 5 10 15 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Deathsper100K Measles vaccine licensed Measles had ceased to be a deadly disease long before the vaccination was introduced… …but the measles vaccine did effectively eliminate a common childhood illness
  • 6. 1. Measles was a common childhood disease through the mid-60s… BACKGROUND: POSTWAR MEASLES CASES AND DEATHS IN THE US 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1…until cases began declining with the 1963 monovalent vaccine 2. Some deaths occurred despite a low death rate… 2…then deaths became rare as cases declined 3. Oddly, cases seemed to rise in the 80s with MMR II… 3…with a dangerous 1989-91 epidemic and surge in deaths 4. From the 1990s onward, measles has become rare and deaths have gone to near zero
  • 7. THERE IS NOTHING UNUSUAL OR EXTREME ABOUT THE RECENT MEASLES OUTBREAK Total CA OH NY WA MN TX All Other 2009 71 9 1 18 1 1 1 40 2010 63 27 2 8 1 3 0 22 2011 220 31 0 32 4 26 6 122 2012 55 8 1 4 0 0 0 42 2013 through 8/24 159 (187 FY) 15 0 65 1 2 25 66 2014 645 34 382 9 34 0 8 178 2015 through 2/14 141 98 0 2 4 1 1 35
  • 8. CDC DESCRIPTION OF RECENT OUTBREAKS MN 2011 • “The largest outbreak occurred among 21 persons in a Minnesota population in which many children were unvaccinated because of parental concerns about the safety of measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine.” TX 2013 • “In an ongoing outbreak in Texas, 20 confirmed cases have been reported as of August 24 among members of a church community.” NY 2013 • “A total of 58 cases* were identified, including six generations of measles infection in two neighborhoods of the borough of Brooklyn. All cases were in members of the orthodox Jewish community. No case was identified in a person who had documented measles vaccination at the time of exposure OH 2014 • “The U.S. experienced 23 measles outbreaks in 2014, including one large outbreak of 383 cases, occurring primarily among unvaccinated Amish communities in Ohio.”
  • 9. Summary points • The hysteria over measles is unfounded. Measles is not Ebola • Measles long since ceased to be a dangerous illness for healthy children. Most adults born before the mid-1960s all acquired measles in childhood and experienced it as a minor inconvenience • The injection of measles via live virus vaccines has made measles increasingly rare and easier to fear. Measles should not cause panic • The measles vaccine virus can shed and cause infections in unhealthy children. Measles vaccination is not a civic duty • Measles-containing vaccines like MMR now cause many more deaths than measles • The “Disneyland measles” episode is no larger or more serious than other recent outbreaks