This document summarizes a research study on the impact of inflation on Nigeria's economic growth from 1981 to 2018. The study used an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model and data from the Central Bank of Nigeria. The results showed that inflation had a negative and significant impact on economic growth, while exchange rate had a negative but insignificant impact. The study concluded that curbing inflation is important for Nigeria's economy. It recommended that monetary authorities reduce money supply through fiscal and monetary policies to lower inflation.
Monetary policy aims to control inflation and stabilize prices in Nigeria. The study uses data from 1981-2008 to examine the impact of inflation and monetary policy on economic growth. The results show that while money supply is positively related to economic growth, inflation rate has no significant impact. This suggests that monetary policy alone cannot control inflation in Nigeria and should be supplemented with fiscal and other measures. The Central Bank of Nigeria needs a more transparent monetary policy to better manage expectations and address the inertia of inflation.
EFFECTIVE MONETARY POLICY AS A RECIPE FOR MACROECONOMIC STABILITY IN NIGERIApaperpublications3
Abstract: The basic objective of this paper was to investigate effective monetary policy as a recipe for macroeconomic stability in Nigeria, using annual time series data from 1981 to 2014. The paper employs OLS methodology with all the BLUE assumption. The results show that considering the magnitude, 1% increase in RGDP (proxy for economic growth) is brought about by 0.86% increase in narrow money supply (M1), 0.63% increase in broad money supply (M2), 258% decrease in inflation rate (INFLARATE), 1276.3% increase in lending rate (LEDRATE), and 143.9% increase in gross fixed capital formation. This implies that an increase in lending rate and other related variables will lead to a significant increase in real GDP, proxy for economic growth in Nigeria. The estimated value of R2 (goodness of fit) of 0.67 or 67% shows that 67% systematic variation in Real GDP is caused by variation in narrow money supply, broad money supply, inflation rate, lending rate, and gross fixed capital formation. This indicates that indeed, monetary policy has an effect on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. The study seems to suggest that concerted efforts should be made by the government to focus on increment in narrow and broad money supplies which will aid in the financing of the country’s monetary growth, balancing the price increase, stimulating increased spending, and further enhancing the country’s macroeconomic variables.
This document examines the impact of monetary policy on the Nigerian economy from 1981 to 2008. The results of the analysis show that monetary policy, as represented by money supply, has a positive impact on GDP growth and the balance of payments, but a negative impact on inflation. The recommendations are that monetary policy should facilitate investment through appropriate interest rates, exchange rates, and liquidity management, and that the money market should provide more financial instruments to satisfy the growing sophistication of participants.
The document discusses several macroeconomic problems including capital and labor misallocation, inflation, and business cycles. It defines inflation and its types. Moderate inflation can boost growth but high inflation is harmful. Measures to control inflation include monetary, fiscal and income policies. Business cycles consist of expansion, peak, recession, trough and recovery phases, though their timing and severity vary. No single measure can adequately curb inflation and both monetary and fiscal approaches are needed.
This document discusses inflation and its impact on the Indian stock market. It begins with an abstract that outlines how the relationship between stock prices and inflation has been extensively researched. The document then discusses the objectives of studying the impact of inflation on various Indian stock indexes like BSE SENSEX, NSE NIFTY, NIFTY Bank, and BSE FMCG based on yearly data. It acknowledges those who helped with the research. The contents section provides an outline covering topics like the different types of inflation, its causes and effects, a comparison of inflation and GDP, the stock market, and analyses of various stock indexes in relation to inflation.
Impact of Inflation growth Rate of Bangladeshmonjurul347
This document discusses inflation in Bangladesh. It defines inflation as a rise in the general price level of goods and services over time. The inflation rate is calculated by comparing the current average price level to the level from one year ago. Types of inflation include sectoral, comprehensive, wartime, and peacetime inflation. Effects of inflation include impacts on investment, exchange rates, interest rates, unemployment, and stock prices. Reasons for inflation in Bangladesh include excess money borrowing, food prices, exchange rate fluctuations, and money supply growth. Methods to control inflation include monetary policy, fixed exchange rates, wage and price controls, and ensuring export growth, remittances, infrastructure development, and adequate utilities.
Agenda:
1. What is Inflation.
2. Real life example
3. Causes of inflation
4. Effects of inflation on economy
5. Control Mechanism for inflation
6. Recent and past Inflation rate of Bangladesh
7. Reasons of inflation and measures taken to control inflation in
Bangladesh.
Monetary policy aims to control inflation and stabilize prices in Nigeria. The study uses data from 1981-2008 to examine the impact of inflation and monetary policy on economic growth. The results show that while money supply is positively related to economic growth, inflation rate has no significant impact. This suggests that monetary policy alone cannot control inflation in Nigeria and should be supplemented with fiscal and other measures. The Central Bank of Nigeria needs a more transparent monetary policy to better manage expectations and address the inertia of inflation.
EFFECTIVE MONETARY POLICY AS A RECIPE FOR MACROECONOMIC STABILITY IN NIGERIApaperpublications3
Abstract: The basic objective of this paper was to investigate effective monetary policy as a recipe for macroeconomic stability in Nigeria, using annual time series data from 1981 to 2014. The paper employs OLS methodology with all the BLUE assumption. The results show that considering the magnitude, 1% increase in RGDP (proxy for economic growth) is brought about by 0.86% increase in narrow money supply (M1), 0.63% increase in broad money supply (M2), 258% decrease in inflation rate (INFLARATE), 1276.3% increase in lending rate (LEDRATE), and 143.9% increase in gross fixed capital formation. This implies that an increase in lending rate and other related variables will lead to a significant increase in real GDP, proxy for economic growth in Nigeria. The estimated value of R2 (goodness of fit) of 0.67 or 67% shows that 67% systematic variation in Real GDP is caused by variation in narrow money supply, broad money supply, inflation rate, lending rate, and gross fixed capital formation. This indicates that indeed, monetary policy has an effect on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. The study seems to suggest that concerted efforts should be made by the government to focus on increment in narrow and broad money supplies which will aid in the financing of the country’s monetary growth, balancing the price increase, stimulating increased spending, and further enhancing the country’s macroeconomic variables.
This document examines the impact of monetary policy on the Nigerian economy from 1981 to 2008. The results of the analysis show that monetary policy, as represented by money supply, has a positive impact on GDP growth and the balance of payments, but a negative impact on inflation. The recommendations are that monetary policy should facilitate investment through appropriate interest rates, exchange rates, and liquidity management, and that the money market should provide more financial instruments to satisfy the growing sophistication of participants.
The document discusses several macroeconomic problems including capital and labor misallocation, inflation, and business cycles. It defines inflation and its types. Moderate inflation can boost growth but high inflation is harmful. Measures to control inflation include monetary, fiscal and income policies. Business cycles consist of expansion, peak, recession, trough and recovery phases, though their timing and severity vary. No single measure can adequately curb inflation and both monetary and fiscal approaches are needed.
This document discusses inflation and its impact on the Indian stock market. It begins with an abstract that outlines how the relationship between stock prices and inflation has been extensively researched. The document then discusses the objectives of studying the impact of inflation on various Indian stock indexes like BSE SENSEX, NSE NIFTY, NIFTY Bank, and BSE FMCG based on yearly data. It acknowledges those who helped with the research. The contents section provides an outline covering topics like the different types of inflation, its causes and effects, a comparison of inflation and GDP, the stock market, and analyses of various stock indexes in relation to inflation.
Impact of Inflation growth Rate of Bangladeshmonjurul347
This document discusses inflation in Bangladesh. It defines inflation as a rise in the general price level of goods and services over time. The inflation rate is calculated by comparing the current average price level to the level from one year ago. Types of inflation include sectoral, comprehensive, wartime, and peacetime inflation. Effects of inflation include impacts on investment, exchange rates, interest rates, unemployment, and stock prices. Reasons for inflation in Bangladesh include excess money borrowing, food prices, exchange rate fluctuations, and money supply growth. Methods to control inflation include monetary policy, fixed exchange rates, wage and price controls, and ensuring export growth, remittances, infrastructure development, and adequate utilities.
Agenda:
1. What is Inflation.
2. Real life example
3. Causes of inflation
4. Effects of inflation on economy
5. Control Mechanism for inflation
6. Recent and past Inflation rate of Bangladesh
7. Reasons of inflation and measures taken to control inflation in
Bangladesh.
Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Dominance and the Conduct of Monetary Policy in ...AJHSSR Journal
The study empirically investigates fiscal dominance and the conduct of monetary policy in
Nigeria, using quarterly data from 1986Q1 to 2016Q4. It adopts the vector error correction mechanism (VECM)
and cointegration technique to analyze the data and make inference. The findings reveal that there is no
evidence of fiscal dominance in Nigeria. The empirical results show that budget deficit, domestic debt and
money supply have no significant influence on the average price level. However, budget deficit and domestic
debt are shown to have significant influence on money supply, but only in the short-run. The policy implication
is that the government should enforce fiscal discipline through the appropriate institution and the Central Bank
should be given autonomy to perform the primary function of long-term price stability, among other functions.
Inflation in Bangladesh and its Impact on Economic GrowthAkib Al Adib Pranto
The document discusses inflation trends in Bangladesh from 2012-2017. Some key points:
- Inflation in Bangladesh averaged 6.60% from 1994-2017, with a high of 10.21% in September 2011 and low of -0.03% in December 1996.
- In September 2017, Bangladesh's inflation rate was 5.45%. Food inflation has generally been higher than non-food inflation.
- Inflation reduces purchasing power and national savings, while also raising import prices and discouraging investment. Both demand-pull and cost-push factors can cause inflation.
- Monetary and fiscal policies can help control inflation in the short-run, while supply reforms and workforce changes aid
The impact of inflation, policy rate and government consumption expenditure o...Alexander Decker
This document analyzes the impact of inflation, policy rate, and government consumption expenditure on GDP growth in Ghana from 1980-2010 using time series econometric analysis. The results show:
1) There is a positive long-run relationship between inflation and GDP growth as well as between the policy rate and GDP growth. However, government consumption expenditure has a negative long-run impact on GDP growth.
2) In the short-run, inflation and government consumption expenditure positively impact GDP growth, while the policy rate has an inverse relationship with GDP growth.
3) Of the three variables, only inflation has a statistically significant impact on real GDP growth in Ghana. The study recommends prudent monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabil
This document discusses inflation in Bangladesh. It provides definitions of inflation and discusses its causes and effects. Inflation in Bangladesh is currently around 9.15% due to factors like excess money supply, food and non-food price rises, exchange rate fluctuations, and increased money supply and remittances. Controlling inflation requires monetary policy tools like interest rates and exchange rates, as well as wage and price controls combined with policies addressing underlying causes. The conclusion calls for proactive fiscal and monetary policies to contain double-digit inflation in Bangladesh.
This document discusses inflation in India. It provides definitions of inflation and how it is calculated in India using the Wholesale Price Index. Several factors that cause inflation in India are discussed, including excess money supply, high demand for goods and services, increased production and labor costs, high interest rates, taxes, and supply shocks. The inflation rate in India was last reported at 9.72% in September 2011. Future inflation in India is expected to remain high due to strong economic growth, rising commodity prices, and ongoing food inflation issues.
Impact of injection and withdrawal of money stock on economic growth in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examines the impact of injecting and withdrawing money stock on economic growth in Nigeria from 1970 to 2008. It uses regression analysis to study the relationship between money supply (M2) and interest rates as indicators of money stock changes, and gross domestic product (GDP) as a measure of economic growth. The study finds that injecting money stock by increasing the money supply tends to reduce interest rates and increase investment, thereby stimulating economic growth. However, excessive money stock increases that are not matched by growth in real output can lead to inflation instead of higher growth.
Dynamic Impact of Money Supply on Inflation: Evidence from ECOWAS Member Statesiosrjce
According to the monetarists, inflation is essentially a monetary phenomenon in the sense that a
continuous rise in the general price level is due to the rate of expansion in money supply far in excess of the
money actually demanded by economic units. But the link between changes in money supply and inflation is not
instantaneous. This study, therefore, assessed this dynamic linkage between money supply and inflation in
ECOWAS member states; West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) and West African Economic Monetary Union
(WAEMU) for the period 1980-2012. The stationary properties of the series are explored both at univariate and
panel sense using KPSS and ADF; IPS and LLC. The results revealed that money supply and inflation are
stationary at the level for individual countries and at panel sense. The random effect model for ECOWAS
member states shows that the impact of money supply on inflation is effective in the current and first period.
While the impact is effective in the first period for WAMZ, WAEMU experiences the impact in current period.
The finding also reveals that there are significant specific-country effects on the variables. This implies that the
objective of macroeconomic convergence is yet to be achieved. The paper, therefore recommends that inflation
should be used as an operational guide in evaluating the effectiveness of monetary policy and also a strong
monetary cooperation programme among ECOWAS member states should be evolved.
Using a series of econometric techniques, the study analysed interaction between monetary policy and private sector credit in Ghana. This study made use of monthly dataset spanning January 1999 to December 2019 of credit to the private sector (PSC) and broad money supply (M2). The results reveal that there exists cointegration, a long run stationary relation between monetary policy and private sector credit. This implies, increases in credit should prompt long-term increases in monetary policy. It is not surprising that growth in the private sector might have a stronger effect on monetary policy. The Error Correction Test is statistically significant and that all the variables demonstrate similar adjustment speeds. This implies that in the short run, both money supply and credit are somewhat equally responsive to their last period’s equilibrium error. There is unidirectional causation from private sector credit to monetary policy. It can be said that, there is an interaction between money supply and private sector credit. Thus, credit to private sector holds great potential in promoting economic growth. It can be recommended to the government to increase the credit flow to the private sector because of its strategic importance in creating and generating growth of the economy.
The document discusses inflation in Bangladesh. It defines inflation as a sustained increase in prices or fall in the value of money. Inflation occurs when currency levels exceed production levels. The document outlines types and causes of inflation including demand-pull and cost-push factors. Effects of inflation are also examined along with methods to control inflation such as monetary and fiscal measures. Current inflation rates in Bangladesh and other SAARC countries are presented.
1) The document analyzes macroeconomic variables like interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, GDP, and inflation in China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia from 2000 to 2017 to determine leading indicators of economic stability.
2) The ARDL panel analysis shows that leading indicators of controlling economic stability differ across countries. For India it is interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, and GDP. For Vietnam it is interest rates, money supply, and GDP. For Indonesia it is interest rates and money supply, and for China it is money supply.
3) The analysis finds that money supply has a significant effect on inflation in the panel as a whole, but results vary by country
Monetary policy determines the supply and availability of money in an economy in order to achieve objectives like economic growth and price stability. It is implemented by central banks and involves managing interest rates and the money supply. When the economy is slowing, monetary policy aims to increase the money supply and lower rates to boost aggregate demand. When inflation is high, it seeks to tighten the money supply or raise rates to reduce aggregate spending. The goals are macroeconomic stability with low unemployment and inflation alongside steady growth.
Econometric analysis of the effectiveness of fiscal policy in economic growth...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that analyzed the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Nigeria between 1985-2003. It investigated the impact of fiscal policy on GDP, inflation, and balance of payments. The study found that fiscal policy was effective in controlling inflation and balance of payments, as the models explained 75-76% of variations in these variables. However, fiscal policy was not effective in controlling GDP, as the model only explained 48% of GDP variations. The study concluded that government expenditure was not directed towards productive ventures that could increase GDP. It recommended that government redirect spending towards productive sectors and provide tax concessions to infant industries.
This document analyzes the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Bangladesh from 1980 to 2014. It finds that inflation has negatively impacted growth when inflation rates are very high, such as over 20%. However, moderate inflation rates between 3-8% appear correlated with higher economic growth of around 5-6%. The relationship between inflation and growth is non-linear, with inflation potentially stimulating growth up to a certain threshold, after which high inflation hinders growth. Understanding this relationship is important for Bangladesh's central bank in conducting monetary policy.
Macroeconomic stability in the DRC: highlighting the role of exchange rate an...IJRTEMJOURNAL
This study is part of a macroeconomic approach and seeks to identify the role of the rate of
economic growth and the exchange rate in controlling the macroeconomic framework. The approaches adopted
in this paper are part of Keynesian thinking on macroeconomic stability using the macroeconomic stability
index proposed by Burnside and Dollars (2004) and A. Amine (2005). Our results argue that economic growth
is causing macroeconomic stability and that the exchange rate is negatively and significantly accounting for
macroeconomic stability in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
This document examines the relationship between capital market development and economic growth in Nigeria from 2008 to 2018. It uses market capitalization, interest rate, and inflation rate as proxies for capital market development and GDP as the measure of economic growth. Multiple regression analysis is employed to analyze the data. The results suggest that the stock market has a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. It is recommended that capital market regulators be more flexible to promote innovation without compromising investor protection. The government should also improve infrastructure to create a better business environment and boost productivity and economic activity.
The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth and Price Stability in Kenya...iosrjce
The government of Kenya’s economic blueprint dubbed ‘Kenya Vision 2030’ acknowledges the
importance of maintaining a stable macro-economic environment. Despite Kenya implementing monetary
policy aimed at achieving stable prices and fostering economic growth, the economy has been reporting low
economic growth and high rates of inflation. These implies there is still a point of disconnect between what
Central bank of Kenya Pursues and the outcome of the objectives. In this study, structural vector autoregresion
(SVAR) model is estimatedto trace the effects of monetary policy shocks on economic growth and prices in
Kenya. Three alternative monetary policy instruments were put into use i.e. broad money supply (M3), interbank
lending rate (ILR) and the real effective exchange rate (REER). The study found evidence that monetary policy
innovations carried out on the quantity-based nominal anchor (M3) has modest effects on economic growth and
prices with a very fast speed of adjustment. Innovations on the price-based nominal anchors (ILR and REER)
have relative and fleeting effects on real GDP. The study recommended that Central Bank of Kenya should
place more emphasis on the use of the quantity-based nominal anchor rather than the price-based nominal
anchor
Deflation refers to a sustained reduction in the overall price level, where the inflation rate falls below zero percent and prices continue to decrease. This occurs when aggregate demand in the economy declines significantly. While a one-time price decrease is not a problem, sustained deflation can lead to a deflationary spiral as consumers delay purchases in expectation of even lower prices, further reducing demand and economic activity. Central banks aim to prevent deflation through monetary policies that increase the money supply, such as lowering interest rates, in order to stimulate demand. According to the passage, India's current low inflation rate is considered disinflation rather than deflation, as prices have not started falling continuously and the economy remains robust with around 6.5%
The Nigerian Government both previous and present has introduced several policies and programmes to reduce or proffer remedial measures to militate against the negative impact of high inflationary levels on the Nigerian economy. All these measures have not led to a productive result as the inflation rate has continued to sour higher over the years. This paper aimed at examining the economic influence of the determinant factors that influence inflationary trends that are multi-dimensional and dynamic which continue to defy solutions. The data used for this work was sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and Central Bank of Nigeria, from 1983 to 2020. The ordinary least square approach was used to analyze the data and the result shows that consumer’s price index, interest rate and total export has a positive effect on Nigeria inflation, but only the Consumer’s Price Index (CPI) have a statistically significant effect on the Nigeria inflation at 99% confidence interval. Result also shows that the exchange rate, foreign reserve, money supply, real GDP, real income and total imports has a negative effect though not statistically significant on the Nigeria inflation rate. The result of the granger causality test shows exchange rate and total imports to granger cause Nigeria inflation. It is recommended that Government should improve locally manufacture products to meet international demands to reduce total imports.
Effect of Government Policies on Price Stability in Nigeriaijtsrd
This study examined the effect of monetary and fiscal policies on price stability in Nigeria using a data rich framework spanning from 1986 2020. The main problem with the macro economic policies that prompted this study was the fact that despite the series of the CBN Monetary Policy Committee decisions and government tax and expenditure implementation there is apparently no useful effect on inflation price . The study employed Auto regression Distributed Lag ARDL Bound Test for Co integration of data analysis depending upon the time series properties of the data that confer mixed order of integration in addition to the conduct of the unit root test and Error Correction Model ECM estimation. The ADF test revealed that LNCPI, EXR, GSDMD, GEXP, GTX and M2 were stationary at 1 1 while RIR, MPR and BOP at 1 0 . Pesaran, Shin and Smith 2001 established that the ARDL bounds technique allows a mixture of 1 1 and 1 0 variables as regressors. Hence, we proceed to perform the ARDL bounds test for integration. The results of the ARDL bounds revealed that the null hypotheses were all rejected implying that a long run effect exists among monetary and fiscal policies variables and CPI in a multivariate framework. ECM coefficient of 0.2942 conforms with expectation. Durbin Watson statistic 0f 1 9925 revealed that the model seems not to have any case of autocorrelation. The result of our analysis shows that fiscal policy rather than monetary policy exerts a more potent effect on price stability in Nigeria. The study recommends that both monetary and fiscal policies should be complementary in order to be effective in taming inflation in Nigeria. Onehi, Damian Haruna | Ibenta, Steve Nkem | Adigwe, Patrick, K. | Emejulu, Ikenna Justin "Effect of Government Policies on Price Stability in Nigeria" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-7 | Issue-1 , February 2023, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd52766.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/accounting-and-finance/52766/effect-of-government-policies-on-price-stability-in-nigeria/onehi-damian-haruna
Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Dominance and the Conduct of Monetary Policy in ...AJHSSR Journal
The study empirically investigates fiscal dominance and the conduct of monetary policy in
Nigeria, using quarterly data from 1986Q1 to 2016Q4. It adopts the vector error correction mechanism (VECM)
and cointegration technique to analyze the data and make inference. The findings reveal that there is no
evidence of fiscal dominance in Nigeria. The empirical results show that budget deficit, domestic debt and
money supply have no significant influence on the average price level. However, budget deficit and domestic
debt are shown to have significant influence on money supply, but only in the short-run. The policy implication
is that the government should enforce fiscal discipline through the appropriate institution and the Central Bank
should be given autonomy to perform the primary function of long-term price stability, among other functions.
Inflation in Bangladesh and its Impact on Economic GrowthAkib Al Adib Pranto
The document discusses inflation trends in Bangladesh from 2012-2017. Some key points:
- Inflation in Bangladesh averaged 6.60% from 1994-2017, with a high of 10.21% in September 2011 and low of -0.03% in December 1996.
- In September 2017, Bangladesh's inflation rate was 5.45%. Food inflation has generally been higher than non-food inflation.
- Inflation reduces purchasing power and national savings, while also raising import prices and discouraging investment. Both demand-pull and cost-push factors can cause inflation.
- Monetary and fiscal policies can help control inflation in the short-run, while supply reforms and workforce changes aid
The impact of inflation, policy rate and government consumption expenditure o...Alexander Decker
This document analyzes the impact of inflation, policy rate, and government consumption expenditure on GDP growth in Ghana from 1980-2010 using time series econometric analysis. The results show:
1) There is a positive long-run relationship between inflation and GDP growth as well as between the policy rate and GDP growth. However, government consumption expenditure has a negative long-run impact on GDP growth.
2) In the short-run, inflation and government consumption expenditure positively impact GDP growth, while the policy rate has an inverse relationship with GDP growth.
3) Of the three variables, only inflation has a statistically significant impact on real GDP growth in Ghana. The study recommends prudent monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabil
This document discusses inflation in Bangladesh. It provides definitions of inflation and discusses its causes and effects. Inflation in Bangladesh is currently around 9.15% due to factors like excess money supply, food and non-food price rises, exchange rate fluctuations, and increased money supply and remittances. Controlling inflation requires monetary policy tools like interest rates and exchange rates, as well as wage and price controls combined with policies addressing underlying causes. The conclusion calls for proactive fiscal and monetary policies to contain double-digit inflation in Bangladesh.
This document discusses inflation in India. It provides definitions of inflation and how it is calculated in India using the Wholesale Price Index. Several factors that cause inflation in India are discussed, including excess money supply, high demand for goods and services, increased production and labor costs, high interest rates, taxes, and supply shocks. The inflation rate in India was last reported at 9.72% in September 2011. Future inflation in India is expected to remain high due to strong economic growth, rising commodity prices, and ongoing food inflation issues.
Impact of injection and withdrawal of money stock on economic growth in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examines the impact of injecting and withdrawing money stock on economic growth in Nigeria from 1970 to 2008. It uses regression analysis to study the relationship between money supply (M2) and interest rates as indicators of money stock changes, and gross domestic product (GDP) as a measure of economic growth. The study finds that injecting money stock by increasing the money supply tends to reduce interest rates and increase investment, thereby stimulating economic growth. However, excessive money stock increases that are not matched by growth in real output can lead to inflation instead of higher growth.
Dynamic Impact of Money Supply on Inflation: Evidence from ECOWAS Member Statesiosrjce
According to the monetarists, inflation is essentially a monetary phenomenon in the sense that a
continuous rise in the general price level is due to the rate of expansion in money supply far in excess of the
money actually demanded by economic units. But the link between changes in money supply and inflation is not
instantaneous. This study, therefore, assessed this dynamic linkage between money supply and inflation in
ECOWAS member states; West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) and West African Economic Monetary Union
(WAEMU) for the period 1980-2012. The stationary properties of the series are explored both at univariate and
panel sense using KPSS and ADF; IPS and LLC. The results revealed that money supply and inflation are
stationary at the level for individual countries and at panel sense. The random effect model for ECOWAS
member states shows that the impact of money supply on inflation is effective in the current and first period.
While the impact is effective in the first period for WAMZ, WAEMU experiences the impact in current period.
The finding also reveals that there are significant specific-country effects on the variables. This implies that the
objective of macroeconomic convergence is yet to be achieved. The paper, therefore recommends that inflation
should be used as an operational guide in evaluating the effectiveness of monetary policy and also a strong
monetary cooperation programme among ECOWAS member states should be evolved.
Using a series of econometric techniques, the study analysed interaction between monetary policy and private sector credit in Ghana. This study made use of monthly dataset spanning January 1999 to December 2019 of credit to the private sector (PSC) and broad money supply (M2). The results reveal that there exists cointegration, a long run stationary relation between monetary policy and private sector credit. This implies, increases in credit should prompt long-term increases in monetary policy. It is not surprising that growth in the private sector might have a stronger effect on monetary policy. The Error Correction Test is statistically significant and that all the variables demonstrate similar adjustment speeds. This implies that in the short run, both money supply and credit are somewhat equally responsive to their last period’s equilibrium error. There is unidirectional causation from private sector credit to monetary policy. It can be said that, there is an interaction between money supply and private sector credit. Thus, credit to private sector holds great potential in promoting economic growth. It can be recommended to the government to increase the credit flow to the private sector because of its strategic importance in creating and generating growth of the economy.
The document discusses inflation in Bangladesh. It defines inflation as a sustained increase in prices or fall in the value of money. Inflation occurs when currency levels exceed production levels. The document outlines types and causes of inflation including demand-pull and cost-push factors. Effects of inflation are also examined along with methods to control inflation such as monetary and fiscal measures. Current inflation rates in Bangladesh and other SAARC countries are presented.
1) The document analyzes macroeconomic variables like interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, GDP, and inflation in China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia from 2000 to 2017 to determine leading indicators of economic stability.
2) The ARDL panel analysis shows that leading indicators of controlling economic stability differ across countries. For India it is interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, and GDP. For Vietnam it is interest rates, money supply, and GDP. For Indonesia it is interest rates and money supply, and for China it is money supply.
3) The analysis finds that money supply has a significant effect on inflation in the panel as a whole, but results vary by country
Monetary policy determines the supply and availability of money in an economy in order to achieve objectives like economic growth and price stability. It is implemented by central banks and involves managing interest rates and the money supply. When the economy is slowing, monetary policy aims to increase the money supply and lower rates to boost aggregate demand. When inflation is high, it seeks to tighten the money supply or raise rates to reduce aggregate spending. The goals are macroeconomic stability with low unemployment and inflation alongside steady growth.
Econometric analysis of the effectiveness of fiscal policy in economic growth...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that analyzed the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Nigeria between 1985-2003. It investigated the impact of fiscal policy on GDP, inflation, and balance of payments. The study found that fiscal policy was effective in controlling inflation and balance of payments, as the models explained 75-76% of variations in these variables. However, fiscal policy was not effective in controlling GDP, as the model only explained 48% of GDP variations. The study concluded that government expenditure was not directed towards productive ventures that could increase GDP. It recommended that government redirect spending towards productive sectors and provide tax concessions to infant industries.
This document analyzes the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Bangladesh from 1980 to 2014. It finds that inflation has negatively impacted growth when inflation rates are very high, such as over 20%. However, moderate inflation rates between 3-8% appear correlated with higher economic growth of around 5-6%. The relationship between inflation and growth is non-linear, with inflation potentially stimulating growth up to a certain threshold, after which high inflation hinders growth. Understanding this relationship is important for Bangladesh's central bank in conducting monetary policy.
Macroeconomic stability in the DRC: highlighting the role of exchange rate an...IJRTEMJOURNAL
This study is part of a macroeconomic approach and seeks to identify the role of the rate of
economic growth and the exchange rate in controlling the macroeconomic framework. The approaches adopted
in this paper are part of Keynesian thinking on macroeconomic stability using the macroeconomic stability
index proposed by Burnside and Dollars (2004) and A. Amine (2005). Our results argue that economic growth
is causing macroeconomic stability and that the exchange rate is negatively and significantly accounting for
macroeconomic stability in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
This document examines the relationship between capital market development and economic growth in Nigeria from 2008 to 2018. It uses market capitalization, interest rate, and inflation rate as proxies for capital market development and GDP as the measure of economic growth. Multiple regression analysis is employed to analyze the data. The results suggest that the stock market has a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. It is recommended that capital market regulators be more flexible to promote innovation without compromising investor protection. The government should also improve infrastructure to create a better business environment and boost productivity and economic activity.
The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth and Price Stability in Kenya...iosrjce
The government of Kenya’s economic blueprint dubbed ‘Kenya Vision 2030’ acknowledges the
importance of maintaining a stable macro-economic environment. Despite Kenya implementing monetary
policy aimed at achieving stable prices and fostering economic growth, the economy has been reporting low
economic growth and high rates of inflation. These implies there is still a point of disconnect between what
Central bank of Kenya Pursues and the outcome of the objectives. In this study, structural vector autoregresion
(SVAR) model is estimatedto trace the effects of monetary policy shocks on economic growth and prices in
Kenya. Three alternative monetary policy instruments were put into use i.e. broad money supply (M3), interbank
lending rate (ILR) and the real effective exchange rate (REER). The study found evidence that monetary policy
innovations carried out on the quantity-based nominal anchor (M3) has modest effects on economic growth and
prices with a very fast speed of adjustment. Innovations on the price-based nominal anchors (ILR and REER)
have relative and fleeting effects on real GDP. The study recommended that Central Bank of Kenya should
place more emphasis on the use of the quantity-based nominal anchor rather than the price-based nominal
anchor
Deflation refers to a sustained reduction in the overall price level, where the inflation rate falls below zero percent and prices continue to decrease. This occurs when aggregate demand in the economy declines significantly. While a one-time price decrease is not a problem, sustained deflation can lead to a deflationary spiral as consumers delay purchases in expectation of even lower prices, further reducing demand and economic activity. Central banks aim to prevent deflation through monetary policies that increase the money supply, such as lowering interest rates, in order to stimulate demand. According to the passage, India's current low inflation rate is considered disinflation rather than deflation, as prices have not started falling continuously and the economy remains robust with around 6.5%
The Nigerian Government both previous and present has introduced several policies and programmes to reduce or proffer remedial measures to militate against the negative impact of high inflationary levels on the Nigerian economy. All these measures have not led to a productive result as the inflation rate has continued to sour higher over the years. This paper aimed at examining the economic influence of the determinant factors that influence inflationary trends that are multi-dimensional and dynamic which continue to defy solutions. The data used for this work was sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and Central Bank of Nigeria, from 1983 to 2020. The ordinary least square approach was used to analyze the data and the result shows that consumer’s price index, interest rate and total export has a positive effect on Nigeria inflation, but only the Consumer’s Price Index (CPI) have a statistically significant effect on the Nigeria inflation at 99% confidence interval. Result also shows that the exchange rate, foreign reserve, money supply, real GDP, real income and total imports has a negative effect though not statistically significant on the Nigeria inflation rate. The result of the granger causality test shows exchange rate and total imports to granger cause Nigeria inflation. It is recommended that Government should improve locally manufacture products to meet international demands to reduce total imports.
Effect of Government Policies on Price Stability in Nigeriaijtsrd
This study examined the effect of monetary and fiscal policies on price stability in Nigeria using a data rich framework spanning from 1986 2020. The main problem with the macro economic policies that prompted this study was the fact that despite the series of the CBN Monetary Policy Committee decisions and government tax and expenditure implementation there is apparently no useful effect on inflation price . The study employed Auto regression Distributed Lag ARDL Bound Test for Co integration of data analysis depending upon the time series properties of the data that confer mixed order of integration in addition to the conduct of the unit root test and Error Correction Model ECM estimation. The ADF test revealed that LNCPI, EXR, GSDMD, GEXP, GTX and M2 were stationary at 1 1 while RIR, MPR and BOP at 1 0 . Pesaran, Shin and Smith 2001 established that the ARDL bounds technique allows a mixture of 1 1 and 1 0 variables as regressors. Hence, we proceed to perform the ARDL bounds test for integration. The results of the ARDL bounds revealed that the null hypotheses were all rejected implying that a long run effect exists among monetary and fiscal policies variables and CPI in a multivariate framework. ECM coefficient of 0.2942 conforms with expectation. Durbin Watson statistic 0f 1 9925 revealed that the model seems not to have any case of autocorrelation. The result of our analysis shows that fiscal policy rather than monetary policy exerts a more potent effect on price stability in Nigeria. The study recommends that both monetary and fiscal policies should be complementary in order to be effective in taming inflation in Nigeria. Onehi, Damian Haruna | Ibenta, Steve Nkem | Adigwe, Patrick, K. | Emejulu, Ikenna Justin "Effect of Government Policies on Price Stability in Nigeria" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-7 | Issue-1 , February 2023, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd52766.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/accounting-and-finance/52766/effect-of-government-policies-on-price-stability-in-nigeria/onehi-damian-haruna
Monetary Policy and Trade Balance in NigeriaYogeshIJTSRD
Nigeria apex bank Central Bank of Nigeria CBN has continued to battle with the job of reviving the ailing economy and putting it on the path of growth. The economy has witnessed unprecedented job loss, rising poverty level, accelerating inflation, sluggish economic growth and disequilibrium in the balance of trade. The study therefore examine the effect of monetary policy on trade balance in Nigeria. Specifically the study ascertained the extent to which inflation, demand deposit, liquidity ratio, exchange rate and interest rate have influenced trade balance in Nigeria using an econometric regression model of the Ordinary Least Square OLS . From the result of the OLS, it is observed that monetary policy rate, demand deposit, liquidity ratio and exchange rate have a significant positive impact on foreign trade in Nigeria. This means that increases in monetary policy rate, demand deposit, liquidity ratio and exchange rate, will lead to increase in foreign trade in Nigeria. On the other, inflation rate and interest rate has a significant negative impact on foreign trade in Nigeria, meaning that as inflation rate and interest rate increases, will be bring about a decline in foreign trade in Nigeria. Based on the findings of this study, the study recommends that the government should employ a contractionary monetary policy to fight inflation by reducing the money supply in the country through decreased bond price. inflation, demand deposit, liquidity ratio, exchange rate and interest rate have influenced trade balance in Nigeria. The government should intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to build reserves for themselves or provide them to the bank to help stabilize the exchange rate. The government should strive to improve trade performance in the short and long run. They should also reduce government spending and tax capital inflow. Edokobi, Tonna David | Okpala, Ngozi Eugenia | Okoye, Nonso John "Monetary Policy and Trade Balance in Nigeria" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-5 , August 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd45080.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/public-sector-management/45080/monetary-policy-and-trade-balance-in-nigeria/edokobi-tonna-david
Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeriaijtsrd
"The chequered history of the Nigeria monetary policy has created a visible asymmetry in the two known monetary regimes before and after SAP in the country. Years after the Structural Adjustment Programme SAP , the Nigeria economy grew to become the strongest economy in Africa and suddenly plunging into recession, a situation that have adversely affected the growth and development of the economy by ways of rising unemployment rate, soaring poverty and swollen external debt, thus suggesting that the failure of the monetary policy in curbing price instability has caused growth instability as Nigeria's record of growth and development has become very poor. This study therefore examines the effect of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria using secondary data covering the period of 1980 2017 that were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. The model's estimates were estimated via multiple econometric model of the ordinary least square to ascertain the effect of money supply, credit in the economy, interest rate on credit, infrastructure, inflationary rate, external debts, price index on growth in Nigeria. The results show that money supply, interest rate on credit, infrastructure and external debt were statistically significant in explaining its impacts on economic growth while other variables used in the study were all found to be statistically insignificant in explaining the growth rate of the Nigerian economy. The study recommends among others that for effective operation of the monetary policy measures in the Nigerian economy, the Central Bank of Nigeria should be granted full autonomy on its monetary policy functions. Partial autonomy should be replaced with full autonomy for the central banks in the developing economies at large which is invariably subjected to government interference and its politics. Onwuteaka, Ifeoma Cecilia | Okoye, P. V. C | Molokwu, Ifeoma Mirian ""Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria"" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-3 | Issue-3 , April 2019, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd22984.pdf
Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/humanities-and-the-arts/economics/22984/effect-of-monetary-policy-on-economic-growth-in-nigeria/onwuteaka-ifeoma-cecilia"
Currency fluctuations and inflation are the natural norm for most major economies. Numerous factors influence economic growth, including a country’s exchange rate system performance, the outlook for inflation, and interest rate differentials. These are the most significant factors that hinder the economic growth of every nation. As a result, this analysis investigates the impact of exchange rate and inflation on Nigeria’s growth performance from 1986 to 2021. Impulse response and variance decomposition were estimated. The real gross domestic product (RGDP) was used as a proxy for growth performance, while the inflation rate (IFNR), real exchange rate (REXR), and interest rate (INTR) were also used as proxies. The results of impulse response and variance decomposition estimates in the short-run (third quarter) and long-run (tenth quarter) show that real exchange rate D(REXR), INTR, and IFNR all have a positive impact on RGDP variation, with values of 13.38%, 31.88%, and 22.40%, respectively, in the third quarter. In the long run (the 10th quarter), REXR contributed approximately 28.76% of the variation in RGDP. The interest rate contributed 24.14%, while the IFNR has contributed about 28.27% of the variation in RGDP in the long run. Therefore, summing the contributions of REXR, INTR, and INFR to RGDP, these variables contributed about 81.17% of the variation in RGDP in the long run. Hence, the research concluded that REXR, INTR, and IFNR have a positive effect on growth performance as proxied by RGDP in Nigeria within the period of the research. The research recommended that the government should provide a policy that will reduce the excess growth of aggregate demand (AD) in the economy, which will reduce inflationary pressure, in order to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs) of 2030 in Nigeria, which include restoring economic growth and macroeconomic stability through macroeconomic variables such as the exchange rate, inflation, and other significant variables.
Long Run Impact of Exchange Rate on Nigeria’s Industrial Outputiosrjce
While many scholars have carried out a lot of research on the impact of exchange rate volatility and
price shocks on economic growth, this study departs from previous studies and seeks to provide suggestions for
Nigerian policy makers on the attainment of an ideal exchange rate necessary to boost industrialization and
industrial output. The economies of all the countries of the world are linked directly or indirectly through asset
and goods markets. This linkage is made possible through trade and foreign exchange. The price of foreign
currencies in terms of a local currency (i.e. foreign exchange) is therefore important to the understanding of the
growth trajectory of all countries of the world. The consequences of substantial misalignments of exchange rates
can lead to output contraction and extensive economic hardship. These therefore, bring up the issue of an ideal
exchange rate necessary for the achievement of a set of diverse objectives - economic growth, containment of
inflation and maintenance of external competiveness. This study employed the use of the ordinary least square
technique to examine the impact of exchange rate stability on industry output in Nigeria using annual time
series data from 1980 to 2013. The result of the study showed that domestic capital, foreign direct investment,
population growth rate, and real exchange rate were significant determinants of industrial output. The changes
in external balance and inflation were of little or no consequences to industrial output. Based on the findings,
the researcher recommended that conscious efforts should be made by government to fine-tune the various
macroeconomic variables in order to provide an enabling environment that stimulates industrial output and
eventual economic growth.
This study examined the effect interest rate on economic growth in Nigeria. Augmented Dickey – Fuller (ADF), Bound Test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) were employed to examine the effect of impact of interest rate on economic growth in Nigeria. The unit root test showed gross domestic product was 1(0) while interest rate, investment and gross capital formation were 1(1). The result of the Bound Test indicated long run relationship among the macroeconomic variables employed in the study. The result of the ARDL indicated that interest rate had negative effect on economic growth both in short run and long run. However, in the long run investment and gross capital formation were established to have positive effect on economic growth with gross capital formation being insignificant. It was concluded that interest rate has a macroeconomic tool is not effective in stimulating economic growth in Nigeria. It was recommended that the level of interest rate should be adequately controlled for the purpose of stimulating economic growth without inflationary pressure. Finally, robust macroeconomic policies aimed at ensuring economic stability should be formulated in order to increase capital formation and attract investment in order to promote economic growth.
Analyzing the Effect of Government Expenditure on Inflation Rate in Nigeria 1...ijtsrd
Nigeria is a developing economy with active participation of the federal government in various economic sectors not only to promote economic growth and development but also to instill fiscal and economic discipline in the economy. Government participation in the economy means greater funding of economic activities and this is expected to impact on economic indicators. This study analyses the effect of government expenditure on inflation rate in Nigeria within a period of 39 years spanning 1981 2019 . The study specifically seek to ascertain, determine, explore and assess the extent to which government expenditures on key sectors of agriculture, education, health and telecommunications respectively affect inflation rate in Nigeria. In line with the specific objectives of this study, four research questions are raised and four hypotheses duly formulated. Data used for this study were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria CBN Statistical Bulletin. Government Expenditure on Agriculture GOA , Government Expenditure on Education GOE , Government Expenditure on Health GOH and Government Expenditure on Telecommunication GOT are the independent variables while inflation rate INF is the dependent variable. Descriptive statistics, diagnostic test employing the Augmented Dickey Fuller and a multivariate regression based on Johanson Cointegration and Error Correction Model ECM are used to analyze the data. Our findings indicate that government expenditures on education and agriculture have positive but insignificant effect on inflation rate and on the other hand, government expenditure on health and government expenditure on telecommunications have positive and significant effect on inflation rate. Based on our findings, the study recommends that government should increase its allocation to the health and education sectors to trigger increased skills and healthcare of economic operators for enhanced human capital development and economic productivity. Government should also provide adequate infrastructures to facilitate economic growth and reduce high inflation rate. Mbanefo, Patrick Amaechi | Atueyi, Chidi Leonard "Analyzing the Effect of Government Expenditure on Inflation Rate in Nigeria (1981-2019)" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-6 | Issue-2 , February 2022, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd49237.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/management-development/49237/analyzing-the-effect-of-government-expenditure-on-inflation-rate-in-nigeria-19812019/mbanefo-patrick-amaechi
Inflation in Sri Lanka has been volatile over the past decade. It peaked at 22.6% in 2008 due to high commodity prices and money supply growth, but declined to 3.56% in 2009 as monetary policy tightened and prices fell. Inflation then gradually increased until 2012, and decreased to 6.94% in 2013. Maintaining price stability is a key objective of Sri Lanka's central bank, as high and unpredictable inflation can negatively impact the economy by redistributing wealth, lowering real incomes, and increasing borrowing costs. The document discusses inflation measurement, trends, and causes in Sri Lanka from 2008 to the present.
Exchange Rate Deregulation and Nigeria’s Industrial Output (1970-2015)AJHSSR Journal
The study examined the effect of exchange rate deregulation on the industrial output of Nigeria
over the period 1970 – 2015. Data for the study comprising Nigeria‟s Industrial Sector‟s Output, Exchange Rate,
Capacity Utilization and Inflation Rate were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin
2015 edition. The data were analyzed using Error Correction Model and Ordinary Least Squares technique. The
result of the analysis revealed that exchange rate deregulation impacted positively and significantly on Industrial
output over the long run period. The dummy variable, which was introduced in the data to segment pre-SAP and
post-SAP periods also showed that exchange rate deregulation was beneficial to the industrial sector. In
conclusion, the study recommended that exchange rate should continue to be deregulated and closely monitored
to discourage rent-seekers and price arbitrage. Also, the government should support export-led growth,
particularly in provision of incentives and soft loans to aid in the export of locally produced industrial outputs.
In addition, government should create a favorable and enabling environment for production such as constant
supply of electricity and good road networks.
CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND INFLATION IN NIGERIAAJHSSR Journal
ABSTRACT :This study examined the impact of inflation and capital market development in Nigeria. The
ultimate objective of the study is centered on an empirical investigation of inflation and its impact on the growth
of the Nigerian capital market, and also the trend of inflation and capital market development in Nigeria. In
order to achieve these objectives, the study used tables and graphs to examine the trend of inflation and capital
market development in Nigeria. Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test was used to check the behavior of data,
and the ARDL bound test was used to check if variables are cointegrated. Post estimation test which includes
the serial correlation, heteroskedasticity and the histogram normality test was also conducted. Data were
collected from secondary sources, such as central bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin and the world development
indicator. The unit root test revealed that the financial sector, financial intermediaries and interest rate were
stationary at levels but exchange rate, inflation, government spending and trade openness became stationary
after the first difference. Empirical findings confirmed that there is a statistically significant long- and short-run
negative effect of inflation on capital market development. On the contrary, economic growth has a statistically
significant long- and short-run positive impact on capital market performance. In addition, results confirmed
that there is positive support of the previous financial sector policies on capital market performance in the
current period.
Understanding the Predictors of Consumer Sentiments: Lessons for Inflation Ta...Moses Oduh
This document discusses a study that aimed to identify factors that predict consumer confidence in Nigeria using quarterly data from 2009 to 2012. The study found that:
1) A stable, non-volatile exchange rate appreciation and announced exchange rate depreciation positively impacted consumer confidence.
2) Actual and expected income levels also positively influenced consumer confidence.
3) However, actual and expected inflation levels as well as unemployment had dampening effects on consumer confidence.
4) For Nigeria to successfully implement inflation targeting, consumer expectations must be incorporated, with a higher weight given to food inflation over durable goods inflation and actual inflation levels.
Comparative Longitudinal Analysis on Global Inflation with a special emphasis...Ram Sharma
https://zenodo.org/record/7939068#.ZGQTS_dX6Ef
This is the presentation for the research “Comparative Longitudinal Analysis on Global Inflation with a special emphasis on Indian Economy” presented at the Second International Conference at the Daly College of Business Management, DAVV Indore.
The research was further published in its peer to peer reviewed conference journal.
The economic fluctuations in Indian housing markets have been time and again proved to be led by inflation (Granger Cause) (Richa Pandey & V. Mary Jessica, 2020).
The purpose of this study is to perform a comparative longitudinal analysis on Global Inflation with a special emphasis on Indian Economy.
The study aims to observe the positive cause-effect relationship between the rise of money supply and circulation in the economy and the succeeding rise in housing prices.
As Gregory Wolfe theorised, “The inflation of our time is intimately connected with some of its most obdurate ideas, forces, postulates, and institutions and can be overcome only by influencing these profound causes and conditions. It is not just a disorder of the monetary system which can be left to financial experts to redress, it is a moral disease, a disorder of society. This inflation, too, belongs to the things which can be understood and remedied only in the area beyond supply and demand.”
Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis suggests that people would change their desired consumption if changes in housing prices affect their expected lifetime wealth. Moreover, an inflationary housing market can be termed essentially, as one of the most major contributors to a nation’s overall inflation (Jared Bernstein, Ernie Tedeschi, and Sarah Robinson, 2021).
A comparative longitudinal analysis on inflation can provide significant insights into the evolution of prices over time. By comparing inflation rates across different countries, researchers can identify patterns and commonalities that can help explain the underlying causes of inflation.
Additionally, by looking at inflation over a long period of time, this research can help economists, administrators and businesses in identifying periods of high and low inflation to investigate the factors that may have contributed to these changes. In general, inflation is defined as a sustained increase in the price level of goods and services in an economy.
Over time, inflation can erode the purchasing power of a currency, as prices for goods and services rise faster than the currency’s value. There are a variety of factors that can contribute to inflation, including increases in the cost of production, changes in monetary policy, and demand-side pressures.
https://zenodo.org/record/7942937#.ZGQQyPdX6Ed
Extant literature revealed that international trade plays a key role to address the economic phenomena and can help to earn foreign exchange. Despite the accruable benefits from international trade and the countrys huge oil export that account for about 90 of its foreign exchange earnings, Nigerias trade balance and exchange rate remain unfavourable. The persistent rise in Nigerias exchange rate and unfavourable trade balance in recent time warrants an empirical probe. This study therefore examines the effect of exchange rate, domestic income, foreign income, consumption expenditure, money supply and interest rate on trade balance using a secondary time series data covering a period of thirty years from 1991 2020. The study employed a regression technique of the Ordinary Least Square OLS . All data used were secondary data obtained from the statistical bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria CBN and National Bureau of Statistics NBS annual publications. After determining stationarity of the study variables using the ADF Statistic, it was discovered that the variables were all integrated at level, first and second difference, and found out to be stationary at their first difference. The study also using Johansen Cointegration Test, found that there is a long run relationship between the variables. Hence, the implication of this result is that there is a long run relationship between trade balance and other variables used in the model. From the result of the OLS, it is observed that exchange rate, domestic income, foreign income and money supply have a positive and significant impact on trade balance in Nigeria. The study recommends that the government should fixed or peg on the exchange rate through the central bank. This will enable the government to buy and sell its own currency against the currency to which it is pegged. The government should strive to reduce inflation to make exports more competitive. The government should also enhance supply side policies to increase long term competitiveness. Edokobi, Tonna David | Okpala, Ngozi Eugenia | Okoye, Nonso John "Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Nexus" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-5 , August 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd45079.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/public-sector-management/45079/exchange-rate-and-trade-balance-nexus/edokobi-tonna-david
The impact of interest rates on the development of an emerging market empiric...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a journal article about the impact of interest rates on the development of emerging markets, using Nigeria as an empirical case study. It acknowledges people who assisted with the research. The abstract indicates that interest rates are difficult to forecast and impact borrowing costs for businesses. While higher rates could encourage savings in the long-run, current high rates in Nigeria of 12% are negatively impacting growth. The literature review discusses how inflation can stimulate or deter human capital formation and how interest rates influence savings, investment, and financial intermediation. It recommends Nigeria adopt pragmatic policies to reduce lending rates to single digits to boost the economy.
This document summarizes the key aspects of monetary policy in Bangladesh. It discusses how the central bank uses interest rates and money supply to influence inflation. However, monetary policy faces limitations in Bangladesh due to imperfect markets and the economy's reliance on imports. The transmission of interest rate changes is also weak as banks determine rates collusively. While price stability is ideal, monetary policy alone has limited impact on inflation in Bangladesh given global price influences and excess bank liquidity reducing the central bank's policy instruments.
Monetary Policy Shocks and Agricultural Output Growth in Nigeriaiosrjce
This document summarizes a research paper that investigated the transmission of monetary policy shocks to agricultural output growth in Nigeria from 1970 to 2012. The study used a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyze the data. The results showed that:
1) Both monetary policy shocks transmitted through interest rates and increases in production costs from inflation have significant impacts on agricultural output growth in Nigeria.
2) Monetary policy shocks transmitted through interest rate channels were found to be more effective at influencing agricultural output than other transmission mechanisms.
3) The study recommends Nigerian monetary policy focus more on using differential interest rates and other tools to revitalize the agricultural sector.
This summary provides an overview of the document:
1) The document investigates the impact of monetary policy rate, interbank rate, and savings deposit on inflation rate in Nigeria from 2006-2014 using an autoregressive distributed lag model.
2) The results of the long-run model show that monetary policy rate, interbank rate, and savings deposit were all negatively and significantly affecting inflation rate during the period studied.
3) In the short-run, monetary policy rate and interbank rates were found to negatively and significantly determine inflation fluctuations, while savings deposit had a positive but insignificant impact.
The nexus between budget deficit and inflation in the nigerianAlexander Decker
This research paper examines the relationship between budget deficits and inflation in Nigeria from 1980 to 2009. It uses time series data and the vector error correction mechanism to analyze the correlation between the two macroeconomic variables. The results show there is a significant causal relationship from budget deficits to inflation, but not from inflation to budget deficits, indicating a unidirectional causality. This means budget deficits directly and indirectly affect inflation through increases in the money supply in the Nigerian economy. The paper recommends adequate monetary policy to balance the role of money supply in influencing both budget deficits and inflation, given the unidirectional relationship found between the two variables.
1) The document examines the influence of external bailouts on macroeconomic stability in Ghana from 2008 to 2021 using time series data and vector error correction modeling.
2) It finds that while external bailouts have no short-term impact, there is a long-term causal relationship between bailouts and macroeconomic stability as well as with foreign direct investment, GDP, and imports.
3) To improve stability, the authors recommend that Ghana reduce reliance on external bailouts, increase foreign reserves, and expand agriculture and industrialization.
- The document discusses a study on increasing brand awareness of Oranger Mobile, which is a courier service partner of PT Pos Indonesia responsible for pickups, deliveries, and direct sales.
- Brand awareness of Oranger is currently low, as the number of Oranger drivers did not meet targets in 2021 and most respondents in a survey were not familiar with the Oranger brand.
- The study uses a mixed-methods approach, collecting both qualitative data to measure brand awareness and quantitative data to analyze factors influencing awareness. The results show advertising, publicity, sponsorship, and word-of-mouth can increase Oranger's brand awareness.
The document summarizes a study on optimizing the stock portfolio of PT XYZ, a state-owned pension fund company in Indonesia. In 2021, PT XYZ's actual stock portfolio performed poorly, with a return of 0.56% and Sharpe ratio of 2.39%, below targets. Using the Markowitz portfolio model and 5 years of stock price data, the study optimized the 2021 portfolio. The optimized portfolio increased the Sharpe ratio to 21.67% and return to 1.62%, outperforming the actual portfolio. An efficient frontier analysis identified multiple portfolio options with different risk-return profiles. The results recommend PT XYZ use the Markowitz method to improve future portfolio performance and evaluation.
The document analyzes the financial performance of 20 health sector companies in Indonesia from 2018-2021 using various financial ratios and DuPont analysis. It finds that hospital companies generally benefited during the pandemic due to increased patient numbers, while pharmaceutical companies saw mixed results depending on retail and distribution impacts. Specifically, the analysis found that one hospital, Metro Healthcare Indonesia, had the highest average return on equity of 0.26 over the period. Other key findings are also presented regarding factors influencing financial performance changes before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
This document discusses a proposed marketing strategy for Hirka, a shoe company that makes shoes from chicken claw skin. Hirka currently markets its products through social media, e-commerce, and word of mouth. However, brand awareness and sales are still low due to a lack of marketing and advertising. The products are also currently only available for men. The study aims to identify the target market and appropriate marketing strategy to increase Hirka's brand awareness and purchase intention. A survey was conducted of 206 respondents to assess their brand recognition of and purchase intention toward Hirka's products. The results showed most respondents were unaware of the Hirka brand and had low purchase intention. Various analyses were used to develop marketing strategies,
1) The document proposes a marketing strategy to enhance customer loyalty for RAM Water, a water processor product experiencing declining sales.
2) It reviews literature on customer loyalty and satisfaction and how the marketing mix (7Ps) can impact satisfaction.
3) An analysis was conducted using SEM-PLS to evaluate the relationships between the 7Ps, customer satisfaction, and loyalty using data from 153 RAM Water users. The results showed the 7Ps significantly impacted satisfaction which significantly impacted loyalty.
This document proposes an integrated luggage storage and transportation scheme. It analyzes the current luggage storage market and compares traditional and new "Internet +" models. The proposed scheme designs functional modules like storage, transportation, tourism services and insurance. It provides solutions for different business scenarios like short/long term storage, inter-station delivery, and tourism services. The goal is to improve resource utilization and provide convenient luggage services for travelers.
- The Ecobiz.id platform was created to help farmers in Indonesia by facilitating knowledge sharing and connecting farmers to buyers. However, the platform still lacks interactivity and network effects due to poor existing content that does not meet user needs.
- This study examines how to motivate stakeholders, especially potential content creators, to actively participate and create valuable, interesting, and relevant content for users. Improving the quality and variety of content is expected to increase interactivity on the platform and provide value to users.
- Interviews and observations of stakeholders and users were conducted to understand their perspectives on existing content and how content could motivate involvement and interaction on the platform. The results will help improve content marketing strategies to better engage users.
This document analyzes strategies to increase brand awareness and intention to use PosAja, an application-based delivery service owned by PT Pos Indonesia. It conducts external and internal analyses, as well as surveys consumers to measure brand awareness and factors influencing intention to use. The survey finds low brand recognition of PosAja. Quantitative analysis shows brand logo and advertisements significantly impact brand awareness, while brand name and promotions do not. Further analysis is needed to identify strategies to improve awareness and drive more customers to use PosAja.
This document summarizes a research study that examined the effect of budgetary participation and internal control on managerial performance, with job relevant information as a moderating variable. The study was conducted at three type C regional general hospitals in Jambi Province, Indonesia that had intermediate accreditation levels. The results showed that budgetary participation and internal control positively affected managerial performance. Job relevant information was found to moderate the relationship between internal control and managerial performance, but did not moderate the relationship between budgetary participation and managerial performance. The document provides background information on the hospitals studied, discusses relevant theories, and outlines the research questions and objectives.
This document analyzes and compares environmentally friendly cryptocurrencies with the highest trading classical cryptocurrencies from July 2019 to April 2022. It finds a statistically significant correlation between the values of eco-friendly and classical cryptocurrencies, suggesting investors apply similar investment approaches to both. It also concludes the demand for eco-friendly cryptocurrencies is increasing as the world moves toward sustainability. The study uses daily closing price data from various sources to analyze 7 eco-friendly and 7 highest value classical cryptocurrencies over 34 months. Descriptive statistics of the data are presented in a table.
This document summarizes the evolution and enlightenment of global financial regulatory systems based on a comparative analysis of systems in the UK, US, and China. It finds that financial regulatory systems generally evolve from mixed/centralized models to separated/institutional models to more integrated approaches. The UK and US systems demonstrate a progression from separation to unification to twin peaks models. China's system has transitioned from the central bank as sole regulator to separated then integrated regulation. Key lessons for China include understanding the role of regulation in promoting development while preventing risks, and adapting international best practices to its national context.
This study analyzed the impact of e-service quality (e-servqual) on customer satisfaction and loyalty at Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI). A survey was conducted with 274 BNI customers who use the mobile banking app. The results of structural equation modeling showed that e-servqual has a significant positive effect on both customer satisfaction and loyalty. Customer satisfaction also has a significant positive effect on loyalty. The study concludes that improving e-servqual can increase customer satisfaction and loyalty for BNI, which is important for the bank's future success.
The document discusses intellectual effort and references. It notes that the brain is just a gateway to the mind, and the mind needs to maintain the brain to concentrate on useful thoughts. It also argues that those who do evil will not get an afterlife, and animals cannot attain infinite spiritual energy or an afterlife. The document concludes that solving problems requires analyzing causes, and that politics and total quality management will become more connected over time. Reform requires having a theory and being a bit of a philosopher.
- Evergrande Group, one of China's largest real estate developers, fell into a major debt crisis with total liabilities reaching 1.97 trillion yuan.
- The crisis was caused by deteriorating cash flow, an overreliance on high-leverage financing, and aggressive diversification into unrelated industries.
- Potential countermeasures discussed include restructuring debt through negotiations, asset sales, and government support to stabilize the real estate market and prevent wider economic impact.
- The document discusses strategies for increasing brand awareness and intention to use Pospay, a digital wallet launched by PT Pos Indonesia.
- Currently, 98.5% of Pospay users are PT Pos Indonesia employees, showing low brand awareness and usage outside the company.
- The study analyzes factors influencing brand awareness and usage intention through a literature review, value proposition canvas analysis, and survey data.
- Results show Pospay can create discounts/cashback and develop new features like inter-wallet transfers to boost awareness and intention to use.
The document proposes an integrated marketing communication strategy for KOST.ON3 Residence through benchmarking against competitors. It analyzes KOST.ON3 Residence's external environment and internal capabilities. The proposed strategy focuses on strengthening advertising using third-party platforms to improve brand awareness and reputation based on insights from an integrated marketing communication analysis and customer journey analysis. Using third-party platforms can help KOST.ON3 Residence expand its customer base by developing greater trust in its brand.
This document proposes marketing strategies to improve the performance of Wifi.id Corner, an internet access service provided by PT Telkom Indonesia. It analyzes Wifi.id Corner's external environment using PESTEL, Porter's Five Forces, and competitor and consumer analyses. An internal analysis uses STP and the 7Ps. SWOT and TOWS matrix analyses identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Based on these, three strategies are proposed: using social media effectively, collaborating with the government and SMEs, and improving Wifi.id Corner's ambience. The goal is to enhance sales by creating purchase intention among consumers.
Datang International is a major Chinese power company that discloses carbon information in its social responsibility reports. The summary analyzes:
1) Datang International's carbon disclosure includes monetary information like environmental fees and subsidies, and non-monetary strategies, measures, and goals.
2) Disclosed strategies commit to green development and increasing clean energy, but some details are lacking.
3) Carbon reduction measures focus on upgrading generator units, developing clean energy, and conserving resources. However, some financial data is not reported.
This document summarizes a research article about the effect of social media marketing and quality of human resources on business development of MSMEs in Maros Regency, Indonesia. The article provides background on the importance of MSMEs to the Indonesian economy. It then reviews literature on topics like the definition of MSMEs, quality of human resources, use of social media marketing, and benefits of social media. The research aims to analyze the effect of social media marketing and quality of human resources on business development of MSMEs in Maros Regency using a quantitative survey method.
Industrial Tech SW: Category Renewal and CreationChristian Dahlen
Every industrial revolution has created a new set of categories and a new set of players.
Multiple new technologies have emerged, but Samsara and C3.ai are only two companies which have gone public so far.
Manufacturing startups constitute the largest pipeline share of unicorns and IPO candidates in the SF Bay Area, and software startups dominate in Germany.
❼❷⓿❺❻❷❽❷❼❽ Dpboss Matka Result Satta Matka Guessing Satta Fix jodi Kalyan Final ank Satta Matka Dpbos Final ank Satta Matta Matka 143 Kalyan Matka Guessing Final Matka Final ank Today Matka 420 Satta Batta Satta 143 Kalyan Chart Main Bazar Chart vip Matka Guessing Dpboss 143 Guessing Kalyan night
Part 2 Deep Dive: Navigating the 2024 Slowdownjeffkluth1
Introduction
The global retail industry has weathered numerous storms, with the financial crisis of 2008 serving as a poignant reminder of the sector's resilience and adaptability. However, as we navigate the complex landscape of 2024, retailers face a unique set of challenges that demand innovative strategies and a fundamental shift in mindset. This white paper contrasts the impact of the 2008 recession on the retail sector with the current headwinds retailers are grappling with, while offering a comprehensive roadmap for success in this new paradigm.
Building Your Employer Brand with Social MediaLuanWise
Presented at The Global HR Summit, 6th June 2024
In this keynote, Luan Wise will provide invaluable insights to elevate your employer brand on social media platforms including LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok. You'll learn how compelling content can authentically showcase your company culture, values, and employee experiences to support your talent acquisition and retention objectives. Additionally, you'll understand the power of employee advocacy to amplify reach and engagement – helping to position your organization as an employer of choice in today's competitive talent landscape.
Structural Design Process: Step-by-Step Guide for BuildingsChandresh Chudasama
The structural design process is explained: Follow our step-by-step guide to understand building design intricacies and ensure structural integrity. Learn how to build wonderful buildings with the help of our detailed information. Learn how to create structures with durability and reliability and also gain insights on ways of managing structures.
The 10 Most Influential Leaders Guiding Corporate Evolution, 2024.pdfthesiliconleaders
In the recent edition, The 10 Most Influential Leaders Guiding Corporate Evolution, 2024, The Silicon Leaders magazine gladly features Dejan Štancer, President of the Global Chamber of Business Leaders (GCBL), along with other leaders.
Brian Fitzsimmons on the Business Strategy and Content Flywheel of Barstool S...Neil Horowitz
On episode 272 of the Digital and Social Media Sports Podcast, Neil chatted with Brian Fitzsimmons, Director of Licensing and Business Development for Barstool Sports.
What follows is a collection of snippets from the podcast. To hear the full interview and more, check out the podcast on all podcast platforms and at www.dsmsports.net
B2B payments are rapidly changing. Find out the 5 key questions you need to be asking yourself to be sure you are mastering B2B payments today. Learn more at www.BlueSnap.com.
Event Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challengesHolger Mueller
Holger Mueller of Constellation Research shares his key takeaways from SAP's Sapphire confernece, held in Orlando, June 3rd till 5th 2024, in the Orange Convention Center.
Storytelling is an incredibly valuable tool to share data and information. To get the most impact from stories there are a number of key ingredients. These are based on science and human nature. Using these elements in a story you can deliver information impactfully, ensure action and drive change.
Best practices for project execution and deliveryCLIVE MINCHIN
A select set of project management best practices to keep your project on-track, on-cost and aligned to scope. Many firms have don't have the necessary skills, diligence, methods and oversight of their projects; this leads to slippage, higher costs and longer timeframes. Often firms have a history of projects that simply failed to move the needle. These best practices will help your firm avoid these pitfalls but they require fortitude to apply.
Discover timeless style with the 2022 Vintage Roman Numerals Men's Ring. Crafted from premium stainless steel, this 6mm wide ring embodies elegance and durability. Perfect as a gift, it seamlessly blends classic Roman numeral detailing with modern sophistication, making it an ideal accessory for any occasion.
https://rb.gy/usj1a2
Understanding User Needs and Satisfying ThemAggregage
https://www.productmanagementtoday.com/frs/26903918/understanding-user-needs-and-satisfying-them
We know we want to create products which our customers find to be valuable. Whether we label it as customer-centric or product-led depends on how long we've been doing product management. There are three challenges we face when doing this. The obvious challenge is figuring out what our users need; the non-obvious challenges are in creating a shared understanding of those needs and in sensing if what we're doing is meeting those needs.
In this webinar, we won't focus on the research methods for discovering user-needs. We will focus on synthesis of the needs we discover, communication and alignment tools, and how we operationalize addressing those needs.
Industry expert Scott Sehlhorst will:
• Introduce a taxonomy for user goals with real world examples
• Present the Onion Diagram, a tool for contextualizing task-level goals
• Illustrate how customer journey maps capture activity-level and task-level goals
• Demonstrate the best approach to selection and prioritization of user-goals to address
• Highlight the crucial benchmarks, observable changes, in ensuring fulfillment of customer needs
IMPACT Silver is a pure silver zinc producer with over $260 million in revenue since 2008 and a large 100% owned 210km Mexico land package - 2024 catalysts includes new 14% grade zinc Plomosas mine and 20,000m of fully funded exploration drilling.
1. American International Journal of Business Management (AIJBM)
ISSN- 2379-106X, www.aijbm.com Volume 3, Issue 2 (February 2020), PP 10-24
*Corresponding Author: Efanga, Udeme Okon www.aijbm.com 10 | Page
Inflation and Nigeria’s Economic Growth, An Auto Regressive
Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model Approach (1981-2018)
Efanga, Udeme Okon1
, Ugwuanyi, Georgina Obinne Ph.D2
,
Umoh, Emmanuel Alphonsus3
1&2
Department of Banking and Finance, College of Management Sciences, Michael Okpara University of
Agriculture, Umudike, Nigeria.
3
Department of Statistics, Akwa Ibom State Polytechnic, Ikot Osurua, Nigeria.
*Corresponding Author: Efanga, Udeme Okon1
ABSTRACT:-This study empirically ascertained the impact of inflation on economic growth of Nigeria
employing annual time series data collected from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin between 1981 and
2018. The data was modeled and analyzed using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model. Other
diagnostic test such as; unit root test, test of Normality, Auto correlation test, Heteroskedasticity test and
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test were also carried out and they confirmed the validity and reliability
of the model employed. Real gross domestic product was employed as the explained variable, while inflation
was employed as the explanatory variable and exchange rate was employed as controlled variable. The results
elicited from the study suggested that inflation rate had a negative significant impact on economic growth of
Nigeria, while exchange rate recorded a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth of Nigeria. This
study concluded that inflation is dangerous to the economy of Nigeria as such, must be curbed. The study
therefore recommended that effort should be made my monetary authorities in Nigeria to reduce money supply
using various fiscal and monetary policy instruments thereby reducing the availability of money in circulation
which will in turn reduce inflation rate in Nigeria.
KEY WORDS:- inflation rate, economic growth, exchange rate, auto regressive distributed lag model,
Central Bank of Nigeria.
I. INTRODUCTION
The cardinal objective of macro economic policies is primarily to foster and enhance economic growth
and to keep inflation rate as low as possible. Inflation is a phenomenon that threatens all economics because of
its perceived undesirable effects. The problem of inflation surely is not a new phenomenon. It has been a core
economic problem of Nigeria over the years. Inflation is a household economic indicator for all market oriented
economics, it is important to note that though inflation is always looked upon in a negative light, mild or
creeping inflation may have a positive effect or impact on an economy. It is believed that mild inflation greases
the wheel of growth of any economy. Mild inflation would encourage producers and sellers to produce and
purchase more and make extra profit from the slight increase in price of a certain product thereby increasing
production capacity, creating more employment and increasing economies of scale. However, chronic inflation
is very harmful and inimical to any economy (Omoke and Ugwuanyi 2010[1]).
Pursuing and maintaining price stability continues to be an indispensable objective of monetary policy
targets for most countries in the world today. The emphasis given to price stability in conduct of monetary
policy is with a view to promoting sustainable growth and development as well as strengthening the purchasing
power of the domestic currency amongst others. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) employs the monetary
targeting framework in the conduct of its monetary policy. This is based on the assumption of a stable and
predictable relationship between money supply and inflation. Consequently, the need to understand the
relationship between inflation and economic growth of the Nigerian economy become imperative and the
dynamics of inflation became central to the success of monetary policy to ensure the achievement of price
stability. The effect of inflation (price instability) in the growth and development of the Nigerian economy
cannot be over-emphasized.
According to Umaru and Zubairu (2012[2]) failure to pay adequate attention to price instability in
managing monetary policy in order to maintain sustainable national growth and development cum strengthening
purchasing power of the local currency is tantamount to steering the ship of state economy to a halt. Admittedly,
the necessity to advance research on the dynamics of inflation and its effect on economic growth in Nigeria
became crucial to researchers, policymakers, Central Bank of Nigeria among others.
2. Inflation And Nigeria’s Economic Growth (1981-2018): An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
*Corresponding Author: Efanga, Udeme Okon www.aijbm.com 11 | Page
This paper is segmented into five segments, with the first segment being the introductory segment, and then the
review of related literature and theories associated with inflation and economic growth. The third segment
emphasizes on the methodology employed in this study, thereafter, followed by data analysis and results
interpretation in the fourth segment. The last segment concludes the study and proffers some recommendations.
II. Review of Related Literature
2.1 Concept of Inflation
Inflation is described as the general and recurrent rise in the overall level of prices for goods and
services. It is measured as an annual percentage increase. As inflation rises, every naira one owns buys one a
smaller percentage of a good or service. The value of a naira does not remain constant during inflation. The
value of a naira is measured in terms of purchasing power, which is the real, tangible goods that money can buy.
When inflation rises, there is usually a decline in the purchasing power of money. Inflation is measured by the
consumer price index, which reflects annual percentage change in the cost borne by an average consumer when
he or she buys a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or varied from time to time usually on annual
basis. The Laspeyres formula is generally used (Anyanwaokoro, 1999[3]). There are a few causes of inflation
where aggregate demand rises faster than aggregate supply, thereby increasing the cost of goods and services.
The imbalance of aggregate demand and supply is associated with government's deficit, expansion of bank's
interest rates and increase of foreign demand. Considering the influence of inflation on economic growth,
Hossain, Ghosh and Islam (2012[4]) posit that besides high inflation level which constrains economic
performance or zero inflation that actually stagnates it, mild (single digit) inflation rate is sine qua non for
economic prosperity. In spite of that the problem posed by inflation is a global phenomenon since it cuts across
both developed and emerging economies; therefore, its control remains a “nightmare” to economic
policymakers throughout the world. Nowadays in Nigeria, concerns have been raised over the persistent rise in
inflation rate with attendant eroding of value of naira and general price instability. In that regard various
scholars hold diverse views on inflation and growth relationship some of which are summarized below: Barro
(2013[5]) observes that the severity of inflation on growth in the short run is insignificant, but adversely affects
living standards. Likewise, Kasidi and Mwakanemela (2013[6]) argue that inflation has a negative impact on
growth stressing that there is no long run relationship with growth. Furthermore, Bruno & Easterly (1998)
affirm that growth declines significantly during high inflation periods, adding that inflation nevertheless
promotes growth when its rate is at lower levels. This means that high inflation does not promote growth; it
affects economic growth negatively after attaining a certain threshold (i.e. the level at which effect begins).
Jones and Manuelli (2001[7]) trace lull in economic activities cum growth to inflationary pressures, which
manifest in several respects: waste in time and resources by individuals and businesses while trying to safeguard
their wealth from inflation. This phenomenon likely brings about inefficient allocation of production resources
with a general decline in macroeconomic performance. Also, decreased savings brings about decreased
investments, which ultimately diminishes growth level. General uncertainty about future price levels
discourages investment and likely lower capital formation in the economy. Besides, the returns on investments
are reduced by inflation; for this reason investors may invest in short-term capital rather than making long-term
investments. Investors would rather invest in assets that can hedge against inflation (property, equity) instead of
productive assets such plant and equipment (Jones and Manuelli, 2001[7]). This may further weaken the
production capacity of the economy, incessant labour negotiations waste resources and rise in nominal wages
resulting in unproductiveness and lower growth. Ambler (2003) posits that higher inflation discourages
competitiveness in international trade with trading partners, affecting export-import trading relations, thereby
resulting in disequilibrium in the balance of payments in form of a current account deficit. Reduced foreign
exchange capacity in any economy over time will limit a country’s ability to enhance its current account deficit.
In addition, with the relaxed competition in international markets, profits accruing to merchandise sector will
decrease. In essence, resources will move away from the merchandise sector into the non-merchandise sector.
Inflation understates the real value of depreciation (i.e. the amount or percentage by which goods or services
decrease in value over time, usually one year). In this case, higher profits are declared resulting in higher tax
paid on profits. This situation is likely to be unfavourable to companies desiring to make additional investments.
Consider an economy where an individual splits his wealth into two parts, namely: capital stock and money. Of
course money is earmarked for consumption and investment. A higher inflation level could result in decreased
consumption rate, while investment may increase because investment, ceteris paribus, brings in a higher return.
However, with the low return on money, the net return becomes low, and because of that investment and capital
stock level drop. In consequence, economic growth drops on account of lower consumption, lower investment
and lower capital stock. During higher inflationary pressures, there are likely outcomes: First is an increase in
the growth rate because, as depreciation rises, the tax paid on capital is reduced. Secondly, there is a decrease in
growth rate. As the volume of money enlarges likewise does the nominal interest rate.
3. Inflation And Nigeria’s Economic Growth (1981-2018): An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
*Corresponding Author: Efanga, Udeme Okon www.aijbm.com 12 | Page
Unfortunately, inflation rate creates confusion with regard to buying, selling, borrowing, investing, and so on.
For any of these, one needs to anchor one’s decisions on current and future prices. Uncertainty creates confusion
about these prices, thereby discouraging investment with accompanying decreased capital stock in an economy.
This brings about a higher chance of correctly forecasting shorter-term prices than longer-term ones. However,
willing investors will expect to be compensated for their risk due to the increased uncertainty making investing
more costly for borrowers.
2.1.2 Types of Inflation in Nigeria
Broadly speaking, inflation can be grouped into four types according to its magnitude.
1. Creeping inflation: This occurs when the rise in price is very slow. A sustained annual rise in prices of less
than 3 percent per annum falls under this category. Such an increase in prices is regarded safe and essential for
economic growth.
2. Walking inflation: This occurs when prices rise moderately and annual inflation rate is a single digit. This
happens when the rate of rise in prices is in the intermediate range of 3 to less than 10 percent. Inflation of this
rate is a warning signal for the government to control it before it turns into running inflation.
3. Running inflation: When prices rise rapidly at the rate of 10 to 20 percent per annum, it is called running
inflation. This type of inflation has tremendous adverse effects on the poor and middle class its control required
strong monetary and fiscal measures.
4. Hyper inflation: Hyper inflation occurs when price rises very fast at double or triple digit rates. This could
get to a situation where the inflation rate can no longer be measurable and absolutely uncontrollable prices could
rise many times everyday. Such a situation brings a total collapse of the monetary system because of the
continuous fall in the purchasing power of money.
Basically, two causes of inflation have been identified, namely, demand-up and costs push inflation.
i. Demand-pull inflation is caused by an increase in the conditions of demand; these could either be an increase
in the ability to buy goods or an increase in the willingness to do so.
ii. Cost – push inflation arises from anything that causes the conditions of supply to decrease. Some of these
factors include a rise in the cost of production, an increase in government taxation and a decrease in quantity of
foods produced.
2.2 Concept of Economic Growth
Economic growth means the increase in the overall productivity that is measured by the gross domestic product
(GDP). Productivity in this context means the tendency or the ability of a state to produce goods and services
from its own resources. Any rise in the productivity marks the increase in the economic growth.
Nell in Munyeka (2014[8]) refers to economic growth as the most important single measure of the performance
of an economy. Economic growth connotes an increase in the capacity of a country to produce goods and
services by comparing contemporary output level with previous ones. Thus, the comparison may result in a
positive or negative growth. Conventionally, it is measured as the percent rate of increase in real gross domestic
product, or RGDP. Growth is normally calculated in real terms such as inflation adjusted terms so as to
minimize the effect of inflation on the price of an economy’s total production.
2.2.1 Types of economic growth
Economic growth is further divided into two, which are: real economic growth and nominal economic growth.
i. Real economic growth
Real economic growth is when the rate of change of overall productivity is rising. That is, if a state is becoming
more capable of producing goods and services with each passing year because of an increase in natural and
human resources or any other factors available, then it is said to have risen in its real economic growth.
ii. Nominal economic growth
The nominal economic growth is contrary to the real economic growth. The nominal economic growth
is when the GDP of a state is rising merely because there is an increase in the prices of commodities or if the
pay rates are rising. This is just the growth in numbers where there is no growth in real sense because the state is
not showing any extraordinary progress in real sense. So this kind of economic growth is determined by the rate
of inflation which is exactly not what a state should aim for.
Economic growth is not exactly measured in terms of increased production of goods and services. Yes
that is what the productivity is but some goods and services are more valuable than the rest. It means that the
quantity does not matter, what matters is the quality and the value of the goods and services. That is what is
meant by the real productivity. Hence, economic growth is measured in U.S. dollars.
4. Inflation And Nigeria’s Economic Growth (1981-2018): An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
*Corresponding Author: Efanga, Udeme Okon www.aijbm.com 13 | Page
2.2.2 Factors affecting economic growth
There are several factors that impair economic growth some of which are unemployment, inflation,
brain drain, poverty, lack of natural resources, lack of human resources, dearth of foreign investments, education
setbacks, social evils, terrorism, disturbed law and order situation, poor healthcare facilities, bad living standard
etc (Wikipedia,2017).
2.3 Implication of Inflation on Economic Growth
The traditional Keynesian model comprises of the Aggregate demand (AD) and Aggregate Supply
(AS) curves, which aptly illustrates the inflation growth relation sip. According to this model, in the short run,
the (AS) curve is upward sloping rather than vertical, which is its critical features. If the AS curve is vertical,
Changes on the demand side of the economy affect only prices. However, if it is upward sloping changes in AD
affect both prices, and output, Dornbusch, et al, (1996[9]). This holds with the fact that many factors drive the
inflation rate and the level of output in the short-run. These include changes in expectations, labour force, prices
of other factors of production, fiscal and /or monetary policy.
In moving from the short-run to the hypothetical long-run, the above mentioned factors and its shock
on the steady state of the economy are assumed to balance out. In this steady state situation, nothing is changing,
as the name suggests. The dynamic adjustment of the short-run AD and AS curve yields an adjustment path
which exhibits an initial positive relationship between inflation and growth, however, turns negative towards the
later part of the adjustment path.
Therefore, even if the prices of goods in the economy have increase, output would not decline, as the
producer has to fulfill the demand of the consumer with whom the agreement was made. The aggregate supply-
aggregate demand (AS-AD) framework also postulated a positive relationship between inflation growth whereas
growth increased, so did inflation. In the 1970’s however, the concept of stag inflation gained permanence, and
the validity of the positive relationship was questioned. Widely accepted at that time, the Philips curve
relationship had appeared to not hold. This was evidenced by periods of low or negative output growth, and
inflation rates that were historically high. During this period, prices rose sharply, while the economics around
the world experienced massive unemployment.
2.4 Theoretical Review
2.4.1The Monetarists: The monetarists, following from the Quantity Theory of Money (QTM), have
propounded that the quantity of money is the main determinant of the price level, or the value of money, such
that any change in the quantity of money produces an exactly direct and proportionate change in the price level.
The QTM is traceable to Irving Fisher’s famous equation of exchange: MV=PQ, where M stands for the stock of
money; V for velocity of circulation of money; Q is the volume of transactions which take place within the
given period; while P stands for the general price level in the economy.
Transforming the equation by substituting Y (total amount of goods and services exchanged for
money) for Q, the equation of exchange becomes: MV=PY. The introduction of Y provides the linkage between
the monetary and the real side of the economy. In this framework, however, P,V, and Y are endogenously
determined within the system. The variable M is the policy variable, which is exogenously determined by the
monetary authorities. The monetarists emphasize that any change in the quantity of money affects only the price
level or the monetary side of the economy, with the real sector of the economy totally insulated. This indicates
that changes in the supply of money do not affect the real output of goods and services, but their values or the
prices at which they are exchanged only. An essential feature of the monetarists model is its focus on the long-
run supply-side properties of the economy as opposed to short-run dynamics (Dornbush, et al, 1996[9]).
2.4.2 The Keynesian: The Keynesian opposed the monetarists view of direct and proportional relationship
between the quantity of money and prices. According to this school, the relationship between changes in the
quantity of money and prices is non-proportional and indirect, through the rate of interest. The strength of the
Keynesian theory is its integration of monetary theory on the one hand and the theory of output and employment
through the rate of interest on the other hand. Thus, when the quantity of money increase, the rate of interest
falls, leading to an increase in the volume of investment and aggregate demand, thereby raising output and
employment. In other words, the Keynesians see a link between the real and the monetary sectors of the
economy an economic phenomenon that describes equilibrium in the goods and money market (IS-LM). Equally
important about the Keynesian theory is that they examined the relationship between the quantity of money and
prices both under unemployment and full employment situations. According, so long as there is unemployment,
output and employment will change in the same proportion as the quantity of money, but there will be no
change in prices. At full employment, however, changes in the quantity of money will induce a proportional
change in price. Olofin (2001) thus, this approach has the virtue of emphasizing that the objectives of full
employment and price stability may be inherently irreconcilable.
5. Inflation And Nigeria’s Economic Growth (1981-2018): An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
*Corresponding Author: Efanga, Udeme Okon www.aijbm.com 14 | Page
2.4.3 The Neo-Keynesian: The neo-Keynesian theoretical exposition combines both aggregate demand and
aggregate supply. It assumes a Keynesian view on the short-run and a classical view in the long-run. The
simplistic approach is to consider changes in public expenditure or the nominal money supply and assume that
expected inflation is zero. As a result, aggregate demand increases with real money balances and, therefore,
decreases with the price level. The neo-Keynesian theory focuses on productivity, because, declining
productivity signals diminishing returns to scale and, consequently, induces inflationary pressures, resulting
mainly from over-heating of the economy and widening output gap.
2.5 Empirical Review
Hussain, Shabir and Kashif (2016[10]) explored the impact of macroeconomic indicators such as
inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate on GDP of Pakistan covering a sample period of 32 years
from1980 to 2011. The research made use of secondary data sourced from website of the State Bank of Pakistan
and the World Bank. Descriptive statistics and multiple regressions were used for analysis. The variables
contained in the model consisted of GDP as dependent variable, while the explanatory variables were interest
rate, exchange rate and inflation rate. The study revealed that inflation rate and interest rate had a significant
negative impact on GDP, while exchange rate related significantly and positively with GDP. Based on the
results and analysis, it was recommended that the government should adopt tight monetary policy measures to
control inflation. Bakare, Kareem and Oyelekan (2015[11]) assessed the effects of inflation rate on economic
growth in Nigeria using annualized time series data for the period 1986 – 2014. The secondary data were
sourced from CBN Statistical Bulletin. The ADF econometric technique was used to determine the stationarity
of the series, while Granger causality test was employed to ascertain the causal direction of dependent and
independent variables. The study found out that inflation rate related negatively and significantly with economic
growth. Also, the finding test indicated that GDP granger caused inflation, and inflation did not granger cause
GDP. Regarding policy implication of the result, it was recommended that productive activity should be
intensified in the economy so as to reduce and stabilize prices of goods and services for the purpose of
promoting economic growth. Chughtai, Malik and Aftab (2015[12]) investigated the impact of major economic
variables like inflation rate, interest rate and exchange rate on economic growth of Pakistan. Secondary data
spanning the period 1981 – 2013 were utilized for this study. Findings from multiple linear regression revealed
that both inflation and interest rates related negatively with economic growth, whereas exchange rate had
significant positive effect on the economy.
Semuel and Nurina (2015[13]) analyzed the effect of inflation, interest rates and exchange rates on
GDP of Indonesia. There was a significant negative relationship of inflation and interest rates on GDP and a
significant positive relationship of the exchange rates on the GDP, while inflation had a non-significant
influence on GDP. Agwu (2015) explored the factors that contribute to economic growth in Nigeria. For the
purpose of realizing the research objectives, Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) was applied in order
to ascertain the short-run and long-run dynamics of economic growth. The long-run estimate indicated that
government expenditure and oil revenue boosted economic growth, while interest rate and inflation rate had
significant negative effects on economic growth. The paper suggested stiffer measures to lessen incidences of
corrupt practices in the economy. Agalega, and Antwi (2013[14]) examined the impact of macroeconomic
variables on GDP in Ghana covering from 1980 – 2010. Annualized time series data were obtained from Bank
of Ghana publications and bulletins, Ghana Statistical Service, the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic
Research (ISSER). The study applied multiple linear regressions to prove that there existed a fairly significant
positive correlation between GDP, Interest rate and inflation, but inflation and interest rate could only achieve
causation in GDP by mere 44 percent. The paper also proved that there existed positive relationship between
inflation and GDP, while interest rate was negative. It was suggested among others that the government together
with the Bank of Ghana should develop and pursue prudent monetary policies that could target lowering and
stabilizing both the micro and selected macroeconomic indices in order to positively drive the economy. Kasidi
and Nwakanemela (2013[14]) studied the impact of inflation on economic growth in Tanzania. Annual time-
series data for the period 1990 - 2011 were employed for analysis. Correlation coefficient and co-integration
technique established the relationship between inflation and GDP and coefficient of elasticity were used to
measure the degree of responsiveness of change in GDP to changes in general price levels. Findings indicated
that inflation had a negative effect on economic growth. The study further established that there was no co-
integration (absence of long-run relationship) between inflation and economic growth in Tanzania within the
period studied.
Omoke and Ugwuanyi (2010[1]) tested the relationship between money, inflation and output by
employing cointegration and Granger-causality test analysis. The findings revealed no existence of a
cointegrating vector in the series used. Money supply was seen to Granger cause both output and inflation. The
result suggest that monetary stability can contribute towards price stability in Nigerian economy since the
variation in price level is mainly caused by money supply and also conclude that inflation in Nigeria is to much
6. Inflation And Nigeria’s Economic Growth (1981-2018): An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
*Corresponding Author: Efanga, Udeme Okon www.aijbm.com 15 | Page
extent a monetary phenomenon. They find empirical support in context of the money-price-output hypothesis
for Nigerian economy. M2 appears to have a strong causal effect on the real output as well as prices. Using
Okun’s law, “each percentage point of cyclical unemployment is associated with a loss equal to 2% of full-
employment output; if full-employment output is $10 trillion, each percentage point of unemployment sustained
for one year costs $200 billion”. Williams and Adedeji (2004[15]) examined price dynamics in the Dominican
Republic by exploring the joint effects of distortions in the money and traded-goods markets on inflation,
holding other potential influences constant. The study captured the remarkable macroeconomic stability and
growth for period 1991 to 2002. Using a parsimonious and empirically stable error-correction model, the paper
found that the major determinants of inflation were changes in monetary aggregates, real output, foreign
inflation, and the exchange rate. However, there was an incomplete pass-through of depreciation from the
exchange rate to inflation. The authors established a long-run relationship in the money and traded-goods
markets, observing that inflation was influenced only by disequilibrium in the money market.
Anidiobu, Okolie and Oleka (2018[16] examined the effect of inflation on economic growth in Nigeria
utilizing annualized data covering the period 1986 – 2015, which were obtained from the Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin of various issues. This study employed ex-post research design because the
variables were based on events that had already taken place, which the researcher could neither control nor
manipulate. Some preliminary tests were performed to ensure data stationarity, and also ascertain how well the
series were distributed. While Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) was adopted for the former, descriptive
statistics explained the latter. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique was used to estimate the variables. Real
Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) formed the dependent variable, Inflation Rate (INFR), Interest Rate (Interest
Rate) and Exchange Rate (EXCHR) made up the independent variables. Statistical outcomes were interpreted
based on a 5 percent level of significance. The regression results indicated that INFR had a positive and non-
significant effect on economic growth (measured by RGDP) in Nigeria for the period studied. The study
recommended that government should adopt tight monetary policy measures to stabilize tide of inflationary
pressures on our economy. It also recommended that political leaders should minimize unjustified public
spending and promote fiscal prudence.
Aminu and Anono (2012[17] investigated the impact of inflation on economic growth and
development in Nigeria between 1970-2010 through the application of Augmented Dickey-Fuller technique in
testing the unit root property of the series and Granger causality test of causation between GDP and inflation.
The results of unit root suggested that all the variables in the model were stationary and the results of Causality
suggested that GDP causes inflation and not inflation causing GDP. The results also revealed that inflation
possessed a positive impact on economic growth through encouraging productivity and output level and on
evolution of total factor productivity. A good performance of an economy in terms of per capita growth may
therefore be attributed to the rate of inflation in the country.
III. METHODOLOGY
3.1 Research Design
This study adopts the ex-post facto research design as it deals with event that had taken place and
secondary data were readily available for collection. Real GDP was adopted as the effect variable, while
inflation rate was employed as the causal variable, while exchange rate was used as the control variable. The
model was estimated using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. Since we are making use of annualized
time-series data and the study cover a long sample period, we made sure our data set were not impaired by unit
root; hence we tested for stationarity of the series by employing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF).
3.2 Source of Data Collection
Data for this study are elicited from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin of 2018[18] under. The
study period covers 1981 through 2018.
3.3 Method of Data Analysis
This study used descriptive statistics, unit root test, correlation and ordinary least squares (OLS) linear
regression model in testing the hypothesis of the study. E-view 9.0 econometric statistical software package was
used for the analysis.
3.4 Model Specification
This research paper adapted the economic model previously used by Anidiobu, et al (2018[16]) that
researched on the Analysis of Inflation and Its Effect on Economic Growth in Nigeria. The study, which had
earlier been reviewed in the preceding section are specified below:
Y = β0 + β1X1 + β2X2 + β3X3 + εi ……………………………………….……........................ (1)
The model is rewritten as:
7. Inflation And Nigeria’s Economic Growth (1981-2018): An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
*Corresponding Author: Efanga, Udeme Okon www.aijbm.com 16 | Page
RGDP = β0 + β1INTR + β2INFR + β3EXCH(R + εi .................................... ............................ (2)
Where RGDP is real gross domestic product, β0 = constant, β1, β2 and β3 are coefficients. INFR is inflation rate,
INTR is interest rate, EXCHR is official exchange rate and ε is error term. However, this study adapted the
scholars’ work by excluding interest rate as a controlled variable since exchange rate is already included as a
controlled variable. This was done to check for multi co-linearity and avoid over bloating the model. In that
regard, our regression model is specified thus:
LogRGDP= β0+ β1INFR + β2EXCHR + εi......................................................................... (3)
Where RGDP is real GDP and other acronyms in the model (INFR, EXCHR and ε) remain as explained above.
IV. DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
4.1 Descriptive Statistics
Table 4.1 Descriptive Statistics
EXR IFR RGDP
Mean 104.4552 19.33263 33737.67
Median 111.1675 12.55000 23068.85
Maximum 306.1000 72.84000 70333.00
Minimum 4.536700 5.380000 13779.26
Std. Dev. 78.39935 17.25014 19604.06
Observations 38 38 38
Source: Author’s analysis using e-view 9 output with data in Appendix
From the table of descriptive statistics above, the means of exchange rate, inflation rate and real gross domestic
product were N104.45, 19.33% and N33737.67 billion respectively. When their minimum stood at N4.544,
5.38& and N19604.06 billion, their maximum were N306.1, 72.84 and N70333 billion respectively. The number
of years covered by this study is 38 years, hence the number of observation being 38.
4.2 Correlation Matrix
Table 4.2 Correlation Matrix
EXR IFR RGDP
EXR 1.000000
IFR -0.445803 1.000000
RGDP 0.821999 -0.340353 1.000000
Source: Author’s analysis using e-view 9 output with data in Appendix
Correlation test to see the relationship that exists amongst variables; from the correlation matrix above, the
result shows that all the three variables are negatively or inversely correlated, which implies that an increase in
any of the variables, would bring about a decrease in the other variables and vice versa.
4.3 Diagnostic Test (Unit Root Test)
Table 4.3 Unit Root Test
Variables Augmented Dickey-
Fuller test statistic
Probability Value ADF Critical at
5%
Inference
EXR -3.537770 0.0125 -2.945842 I(1)
IFR -3.471794 0.0147 -2.945842 I(0)
RGDP -5.590692 0.0000 -2.951125 I(1)
Source: Author’s analysis using e-view 9 output with data in Appendix
The unit root test result shows that the order of integration of the variables comprises of a mixture of
1(0) and 1(1), as such the most appropriate model to be adopted in analyzing data remains Auto - Regressive
Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model.
8. Inflation And Nigeria’s Economic Growth (1981-2018): An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
*Corresponding Author: Efanga, Udeme Okon www.aijbm.com 17 | Page
4.4 Inferential Results
Results of ARDL Model
Table 4.4 Results of ARDL Model
Variable Coefficien
t
Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.*
LOG(RGDP(-2)) -0.600931 0.134084 -4.481750 0.0001
LOG(IFR(-2)) -0.034801 0.009357 -3.719036 0.0009
LOG(EXR) -0.019654 0.013234 -1.485105 0.1487
C 0.126771 0.131182 0.966372 0.3421
R-squared 0.997752 Mean dependent var 10.30495
Adjusted R-squared 0.997190 S.D. dependent var 0.555135
S.E. of regression 0.029425 Akaike info criterion -
4.020808
Sum squared resid 0.024243 Schwarz criterion -
3.668915
Log likelihood 80.37454 Hannan-Quinn criter. -
3.897988
F-statistic 1775.641 Durbin-Watson stat 2.264983
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Source: Author’s analysis using e-view 9 output with data in Appendix
The ARDL result as shown in the table above suggests that both inflation rate and exchange rate have
negative impacts on real gross domestic product. This result is in support or in tandem with the results elicited
from the correlation analysis earlier conducted. The result further revealed that a percentage increase in inflation
rate would bring about a 0.035 percent decrease in real gross domestic product. Also, a percentage increase in
exchange rate would bring about a 0.02 percent decrease in real gross domestic product, and vice versa.
A keen examination of the result shows that inflation rate had a negative significant impact on real gross
domestic product at 5% level of significance as supported by the corresponding probability value of 0.0009
which is < 5% significance level. Exchange rate can be said to have exerted a negative, yet insignificant impact
on real gross domestic product as shown by its corresponding probability value of 0.1487 which is > 5%
significance level.
The R-squared as well as the Adjusted R-squared of 0.99 showed that the explanatory variables
accounted for more than 99% variations in the explained variable.
F-statistic of 1775.6 showed that the model is a good fit as confirmed by its corresponding probability
value of 0.000000 which means that the model is significant both at 1% and 5% levels of significance.
Durbin-Watson stat. of 2.26 suggests that the variables are free from auto-correlation since it is very close to 2.
4.5 Test of Serial Correlation
Table 4.5 Test of Serial Correlation
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 1.499901 Prob. F(2,26) 0.2418
Obs*R-squared 3.723918 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.1554
Source: Author’s analysis using e-view 9 output with data in Appendix
In line with the rules, the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test table above shows that the
probability values of 0.2418 and 0.1554 are statistically insignificant at 5% level of significance, the model is
said to be free from serial correlation.
4.6 Test of Heteroskedasticity
Table 4.6 Test of Heteroskedasticity
Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey
F-statistic 3.797156 Prob. F(7,28) 0.0051
Obs*R-squared 17.53173 Prob. Chi-Square(7) 0.0143
Scaled explained SS 5.189151 Prob. Chi-Square(7) 0.6369
Source: Author’s analysis using e-view 9 output with data in Appendix
9. Inflation And Nigeria’s Economic Growth (1981-2018): An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
*Corresponding Author: Efanga, Udeme Okon www.aijbm.com 18 | Page
The Heteroskedasticity test above suggests the problem of Heteroskedasticity since the p-values of F-stat. and
Obs*R-squared are < 5% significance level. However, the Scaled explained SS suggest the absence of
Heteroskedasticity.
4.7 Test of Normality
This test is conducted to ensure that the data employed in this study are normally distributed. Observing from
the normality diagram (see appendix) as well as the Jaque Bera value of 1.65 which is >5% significant level
confirms that the data are normally distributed.
4.8 Correlogram Q-Statistic
This test is carried out to further test for auto correlation and to consolidate the result of Durbin Watson Stat.
which suggested that the variables are free from auto correlation. From the correlogram Q- Stat. table (see
appendix) indicates that all p-values were >5% hence the conclusion that the model was free from auto
correlation.
V. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
This study empirically analysed the impact of inflation on economic growth of Nigeria using time
series data covering a period of 38 years, between 1981 and 2018. Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
model approach was employed to ascertain the impact of inflation of economic growth of Nigeria.
The result of the (ARDL) model suggested that inflation rate had a negative significant impact on
economic growth of Nigeria, agreeing with economic expectations that inflation maintains an inverse
relationship with economic growth proxied by real gross domestic product. This result is in consonance with the
empirical documentations of Hussain, Shabir and Kashif (2016), Chughtai, Malik and Aftab (2015) and Semuel
and Nurina (2015) who also recorded negative relationships between inflation and economic growth, but in
negation of the work of Aminu and Anono (2012) who recorded a positive impact of inflation on economic
growth. The controlled variable employed in this study (exchange rate) was found to have a negative and
insignificant impact on economic growth of Nigeria within the period under review. This study concludes that
inflation is dangerous to the growth of an economy, most especially to developing and fragile economy as that
of Nigeria.
This study therefore recommends that;
1. Government and key monetary authorities such as Central Bank of Nigeria and ministry of finance should
adopt a contractionary monetary policy in order to curb excess money supply in the economy which could in
turn lead to inflation.
2. Both monetary and fiscal policy instruments should be employed and harnessed so as to work in tandem in
regulating interest rates, government taxes and its spending activities all in a bit to control and regulate the
availability of money in the economy.
REFERENCES
[1]. Ademola, and A. Badiru, The impact of unemployment and inflation on economic growth in Nigeria.
International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences, 9(1), 2016, 47 – 55.
[2]. E. Agalega, and S. Antwi, The impact of macroeconomic variables on gross domestic product:
Empirical evidence from Ghana. International Business Research, 6(5), 2013, 108 – 116.
[3]. Anyanwaokoro. Theory and policy of money and banking, Enugu: Hosanna Publications, (1999).
[4]. H. Bakare, R. Kareem, and O. Oyelekan, Effects of inflation rate on economic growth in Nigeria.
Developing Country Studies, 5(8), 2015, 153 – 160.
[5]. R. Barro, Inflation and economic growth. Annals of Economics and Finance, 14(1), 2013, 85 – 109.
[6]. M. Bruno, and W. Easterly, Inflation crises and long-run growth. Journal of Monetary Economics,
14(1), 1998, 3 – 26.
[7]. Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN (2018). Statistical Bulletin, 2018.
[8]. M. Chughtai, M. Malik and R. Aftab, Impact of major economic variables on economic growth of
Pakistan. Deta Universitatis Danubius, 11(2), 2015, 94 – 106.
[9]. R. Dornbusch, et al, Macroeconomic. Sydney: The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. 1996.
[10]. E. Hossain, B. Ghosh, and K. Islam, Inflation and economic growth in Bangladesh. International
Refereed Research Journal, 4(2), 2012.
[11]. Hussain, H. Sabir, and M. Kashif, Impact of macroeconomic variables on GDP: Evidence from
Pakistan. European Journal of Business and Innovation Research, 4(3), 2016,38 – 52.
[12]. L. Jones, and R. Manuelli, Growth and the effects of inflation. National Bureau of Economic Research,
Paper 4523, 2001.
10. Inflation And Nigeria’s Economic Growth (1981-2018): An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
*Corresponding Author: Efanga, Udeme Okon www.aijbm.com 19 | Page
[13]. K, Kasidi, and K., Mwakanemela, Impact of inflation on economic growth: A case of Tanzania. Asian
Journal of Empirical Research, 3(4), 2013, 363 – 380.
[14]. W. Munyeka, The relationship between economic growth and inflation in South African economy.
Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5(15), 2014,119 – 129.
[15]. P. Omeke, and C. Ugwunyi, Money, Price and Output: A Causality Test for Nigeria. American Journal
of Scientific Research ISSN 1456-223X, Issue 8, 2010, pp.78-87. Euro Journals Publishing, Inc.
[16]. ,H. Semuel and S. Nurina, Analysis of the effect of inflation, interest rates and exchange rates on gross
domestic product (GDP) in Indonesia., Proc. International Conf. on Global Business, Economics,
Finance and Social Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand,1- 13, 2015.
[17]. Umaru, and A. Zubairu, Effect of inflation on the growth and development of the Nigerian economy:
An empirical analysis. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(10), 2012,183 – 191.
[18]. O. Williams, and O. Adedeji, ‟Inflation Dynamics in the Dominican Republic” IMF Working Paper,
WP/04/29, 2004, Western Hemisphere Department: Washington, D.C.,February.
[19]. G. Anidiobu, P. Okolie and D. Oleka, Analysis of Inflation and Its Effect on Economic Growth in
Nigeria, IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance (IOSR-JEF) e-ISSN: 2321-5933, p-ISSN: 2321-
5925. 2018, Volume 9, Issue 1 Ver. IV (Jan.- Feb .2018), PP 28-36 www.iosrjournals.org
[20]. U. Aminu, A. Anono, Effect of Inflation on the Growth and Development of the Nigerian Economy
(An Empirical Analysis) International Journal of Business and Social Science Vol. 3 No. 10, 2012,
[Special Issue – May 2012]
APPENDICES
Data Employed for Analysis
YEAR EXR RGDP IFR
1981 110.39 15,258 20.81
1982 109.86 14,985.08 7.7
1983 109.84 13,849.73 23.21
1984 113.20 13,779.26 17.82
1985 99.90 14,953.91 7.44
1986 51.89 15,237.99 5.72
1987 14.72 15,263.93 11.29
1988 4.5367 16,215.37 54.51
1989 7.3916 17,294.68 50.47
1990 8.0378 19,305.63 7.36
1991 9.9095 19,199.06 13.01
1992 17.2984 19,620.19 44.59
1993 22.0511 19,927.99 57.17
1994 21.8861 19,979.12 57.03
1995 21.8861 20,353.20 72.84
1996 21.8861 21,177.92 29.27
1997 21.8861 21,789.10 8.53
1998 21.8861 22,332.87 10
1999 92.6934 22,449.41 6.62
2000 102.1052 23,688.28 6.93
2001 111.9433 25,267.54 18.87
2002 120.9702 28,957.71 12.88
2003 129.3565 31,709.43 14.03
2004 133.5004 35,020.55 15
2005 132.147 37,424.95 17.86
2006 128.6516 39,995.50 8.24
11. Inflation And Nigeria’s Economic Growth (1981-2018): An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
*Corresponding Author: Efanga, Udeme Okon www.aijbm.com 20 | Page
Source: CBN Statistical Bulletin of 2018
Dependent Variable: LOG(RGDP)
Method: ARDL
Date: 01/15/20 Time: 08:26
Sample (adjusted): 1983 2018
Included observations: 36 after adjustments
Maximum dependent lags: 4 (Automatic selection)
Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC)
Dynamic regressors (4 lags, automatic): LOG(IFR) LOG(EXR)
Fixed regressors: C
Number of models evalulated: 100
Selected Model: ARDL(2, 2, 1)
Note: final equation sample is larger than selection sample
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.*
LOG(RGDP(-1)) 1.594804 0.129397 12.32491 0.0000
LOG(RGDP(-2)) -0.600931 0.134084 -4.481750 0.0001
LOG(IFR) -0.028277 0.009987 -2.831283 0.0085
LOG(IFR(-1)) 0.046672 0.010609 4.399165 0.0001
LOG(IFR(-2)) -0.034801 0.009357 -3.719036 0.0009
LOG(EXR) -0.019654 0.013234 -1.485105 0.1487
LOG(EXR(-1)) 0.019435 0.012657 1.535452 0.1359
C 0.126771 0.131182 0.966372 0.3421
R-squared 0.997752 Mean dependent var 10.30495
Adjusted R-squared 0.997190 S.D. dependent var 0.555135
S.E. of regression 0.029425 Akaike info criterion -4.020808
Sum squared resid 0.024243 Schwarz criterion -3.668915
Log likelihood 80.37454 Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.897988
F-statistic 1775.641 Durbin-Watson stat 2.264983
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
*Note: p-values and any subsequent tests do not account for model
selection.
2007 125.8331 42,922.41 5.38
2008 118.5669 46,012.52 11.54
2009 148.8802 49,856.10 11.54
2010 150.298 54,612.26 13.72
2011 153.8616 57,511.04 10.84
2012 157.4994 59,929.89 12.22
2013 157.3112 63,218.72 8.84
2014 158.5526 67,152.79 8.06
2015
2016
193.2792
253.4923
69,023.93
67,931.24
9.01
15.68
2017 305.8000 68,490.98 16.52
2018 306.1000 70,333.00 12.09
12. Inflation And Nigeria’s Economic Growth (1981-2018): An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
*Corresponding Author: Efanga, Udeme Okon www.aijbm.com 21 | Page
UNIT ROOT TEST
Null Hypothesis: IFR has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic - based on AIC, maxlag=10)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.471794 0.0147
Test critical values: 1% level -3.626784
5% level -2.945842
10% level -2.611531
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(IFR)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/15/20 Time: 08:33
Sample (adjusted): 1983 2018
Included observations: 36 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
IFR(-1) -0.502593 0.144765 -3.471794 0.0015
D(IFR(-1)) 0.302230 0.164287 1.839654 0.0748
C 9.954901 3.626141 2.745315 0.0097
R-squared 0.269453 Mean dependent var 0.121944
Adjusted R-squared 0.225177 S.D. dependent var 15.44895
S.E. of regression 13.59879 Akaike info criterion 8.137494
Sum squared resid 6102.591 Schwarz criterion 8.269453
Log likelihood -143.4749 Hannan-Quinn criter. 8.183551
F-statistic 6.085813 Durbin-Watson stat 1.767674
Prob(F-statistic) 0.005626
Null Hypothesis: D(EXR) has a unit root
Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on AIC, maxlag=10)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.537770 0.0125
Test critical values: 1% level -3.626784
5% level -2.945842
10% level -2.611531
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(EXR,2)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/15/20 Time: 08:35
Sample (adjusted): 1983 2018
Included observations: 36 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(EXR(-1)) -0.537859 0.152033 -3.537770 0.0012
C 2.942650 3.402118 0.864946 0.3931
R-squared 0.269066 Mean dependent var 0.023148
Adjusted R-squared 0.247568 S.D. dependent var 22.82964
S.E. of regression 19.80308 Akaike info criterion 8.863505
Sum squared resid 13333.51 Schwarz criterion 8.951478
Log likelihood -157.5431 Hannan-Quinn criter. 8.894210
F-statistic 12.51582 Durbin-Watson stat 1.879317
Prob(F-statistic) 0.001190