The document discusses a class on the State of the Future Index (SOFI) and text mining. It provides an overview of SOFI as a tool for policy analysis and education that combines weighted variables to measure if the future outlook is improving. It also discusses collecting expert judgments on variables, impacts, and future developments through techniques like the Real-Time Delphi to construct the SOFI. The document outlines sources and resources for more information on SOFI, text mining, and related topics.
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Overview of global challenges, strategies, new technologies to improve the prospects for humanity from the Millennium Project and its annual State of the Future report
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These slides analyze the 40 predictions of breakthrough technologies that were made betwee 2001 and 2005 by MIT’s Technology Review. Most of them are science-based technologies, and none of the science-based technologies predicted between 2001 and 2005 have markets larger than $10 billion. Among its 40 predictions, only four have markets larger than $10 billion and these technologies have little to do with recent advances in science and instead were enabled by Moore’s Law and improvements in Internet services. MIT also missed many technologies that have achieved market sales greater than $100 billion such as smart phones, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things and other technologies with sales greater than $50 billion such as e-commerce for apparel and tablet computers.
Spain work tech 2050 scenarios and national workshopsJerome Glenn
Intro to The Millennium Project, inevitability of new economics, global study on future work/technology 2050, three global work/tech 2050 scenarios, and workshops to explore national long-range strategies to address issue raised in the scenarios.
We should teach as much about the future as we do about the past! This presentation makes that case and provides some mathematical concepts that help students forecast future values.
This paper review how technology can be use to generate a more inclusive position both as instrument of dominion and emancipartion. This positive view of technology will be discuss with particular emphasis on the interrelationship between technology and quality of life that will bring about steady improvements in living conditions. This paper also talks about the usefulness of science, technology and lnnovations (STI) in adding value to our social system. The ability of local firms and enterprises to access technological know-how is fundamental in providing products and services. The use of computer in enhancing production, transportation, energy, commerce, education and health. STI will foster food production and accessibility to good health. This paper concluded that we cannot suppress change as a nation, we need to stop finding reasons why things cant be done and find the reasons why they must be done as well as the right way to do them before we wipe out ourselves.
State of the Future 2015-16: Report from the Millennium ProjectDavid Wood
Slides used by David Wood, Chair of London Futurists, to preview the London Futurists event, http://www.meetup.com/London-Futurists/events/224799635/, held at Bloomberg HQ London on 13th November 2015. These slides are derived from a set created by Jerome C. Glenn, The Millennium Project. Topics include the State of the Future Index 1995-2025, 15 Global Challenges, the inevitability of New Economics, Technological Unemployment, and Basic Income Guarantee.
Global Future Changes and Millennium ProjectJerome Glenn
Overview of global challenges, strategies, new technologies to improve the prospects for humanity from the Millennium Project and its annual State of the Future report
MIT's Poor Predictions About TechnologyJeffrey Funk
These slides analyze the 40 predictions of breakthrough technologies that were made betwee 2001 and 2005 by MIT’s Technology Review. Most of them are science-based technologies, and none of the science-based technologies predicted between 2001 and 2005 have markets larger than $10 billion. Among its 40 predictions, only four have markets larger than $10 billion and these technologies have little to do with recent advances in science and instead were enabled by Moore’s Law and improvements in Internet services. MIT also missed many technologies that have achieved market sales greater than $100 billion such as smart phones, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things and other technologies with sales greater than $50 billion such as e-commerce for apparel and tablet computers.
Spain work tech 2050 scenarios and national workshopsJerome Glenn
Intro to The Millennium Project, inevitability of new economics, global study on future work/technology 2050, three global work/tech 2050 scenarios, and workshops to explore national long-range strategies to address issue raised in the scenarios.
We should teach as much about the future as we do about the past! This presentation makes that case and provides some mathematical concepts that help students forecast future values.
This paper review how technology can be use to generate a more inclusive position both as instrument of dominion and emancipartion. This positive view of technology will be discuss with particular emphasis on the interrelationship between technology and quality of life that will bring about steady improvements in living conditions. This paper also talks about the usefulness of science, technology and lnnovations (STI) in adding value to our social system. The ability of local firms and enterprises to access technological know-how is fundamental in providing products and services. The use of computer in enhancing production, transportation, energy, commerce, education and health. STI will foster food production and accessibility to good health. This paper concluded that we cannot suppress change as a nation, we need to stop finding reasons why things cant be done and find the reasons why they must be done as well as the right way to do them before we wipe out ourselves.
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Dear Dr. Kornbluth and Mr. Gorenberg,
The US House of Representatives is deeply concerned by ongoing and pervasive acts of antisemitic
harassment and intimidation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Failing to act decisively to ensure a safe learning environment for all students would be a grave dereliction of your responsibilities as President of MIT and Chair of the MIT Corporation.
This Congress will not stand idly by and allow an environment hostile to Jewish students to persist. The House believes that your institution is in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, and the inability or
unwillingness to rectify this violation through action requires accountability.
Postsecondary education is a unique opportunity for students to learn and have their ideas and beliefs challenged. However, universities receiving hundreds of millions of federal funds annually have denied
students that opportunity and have been hijacked to become venues for the promotion of terrorism, antisemitic harassment and intimidation, unlawful encampments, and in some cases, assaults and riots.
The House of Representatives will not countenance the use of federal funds to indoctrinate students into hateful, antisemitic, anti-American supporters of terrorism. Investigations into campus antisemitism by the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Ways and Means have been expanded into a Congress-wide probe across all relevant jurisdictions to address this national crisis. The undersigned Committees will conduct oversight into the use of federal funds at MIT and its learning environment under authorities granted to each Committee.
• The Committee on Education and the Workforce has been investigating your institution since December 7, 2023. The Committee has broad jurisdiction over postsecondary education, including its compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, campus safety concerns over disruptions to the learning environment, and the awarding of federal student aid under the Higher Education Act.
• The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is investigating the sources of funding and other support flowing to groups espousing pro-Hamas propaganda and engaged in antisemitic harassment and intimidation of students. The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is the principal oversight committee of the US House of Representatives and has broad authority to investigate “any matter” at “any time” under House Rule X.
• The Committee on Ways and Means has been investigating several universities since November 15, 2023, when the Committee held a hearing entitled From Ivory Towers to Dark Corners: Investigating the Nexus Between Antisemitism, Tax-Exempt Universities, and Terror Financing. The Committee followed the hearing with letters to those institutions on January 10, 202
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Azerbaijan2.2.3 sofi and text scanning
1. State of the Future Index and Text Mining Second Semester Class 3 The Azerbaijan State Economic University March 4, 2011 Ted Gordon, Senior Fellow and Jerome Glenn, Executive Director, The Millennium Project Alan Porter, Director of R&D, Search Technology, Inc. & Co-Director, Technology Policy & Assessment Center Georgia Tech
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11. The Global SOFI Variables R&D expenditures Corruption Improved water sources Percent unemployment School Enrollment, secondary Renewable Energy Energy consumption per GDP Internet Users Carbon Dioxide emissions People killed or injured in terrorist attacks GDP per capita Physicians per 1000 population Literacy rate Population growth rate Forest Lands People voting in elections Life expectancy at birth Food availability Infant mortality Number of refugees Homicides, intentional Debt Service (% of GNI) Seats held by women in parliaments Prevalence of HIV People Living in Extreme Poverty Global Temperature Anomalies Nuclear Proliferation Number of infectious diseases Number of armed conflicts People in Countries that are Free
12. Global SOFI Example of SOFI (State of the Future Index) variables: Infant mortality Food availability GNP per capita Access to fresh water CO2 emissions Literacy Wars AIDS deaths Terrorist attacks Debt ratio Unemployment Calories per capita Health care Forest lands Rich poor gap …
21. Global SOFI Example of SOFI (State of the Future Index) variables: Infant mortality Food availability GNP per capita Access to fresh water CO2 emissions Literacy Wars AIDS deaths Terrorist attacks Debt ratio Unemployment Calories per capita Health care Forest lands Rich poor gap …
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25. Developments Variables (ordered by importance): Prob Import Ready 28. Massive financial crisis triggers a world depression as large as in the 1930's 42.39 7.56 7.14 53. New technology displaces carbon fuels as cheapest energy source 30.70 7.33 6.43 45. Gulf Cooperation Council moves countries in the region toward EU-like arrangements agreements 46.43 7.22 7.04 26. Extremist political religious groups change the current direction of the region 47.25 7.21 7.42 48. Aging population doubles government social costs 65.42 7.16 6.44 44. Water scarcity problems are essentially solved (for example, through low cost desalination) 27.69 7.08 6.77 37. Extremists detonate nuclear devices, dirty bombs, or other weapons of mass destruction 24.97 7.00 5.92 39. Stability achieved in Iraq 45.38 7.00 7.60 32. Renewable energy sources, like wind and solar, provide 50% of the world's power 26.30 6.84 6.70 29. Most glaciers melt twice as fast as in the decade 2000 - 2009 51.19 6.67 6.21 41. OPEC's ability to control oil production dramatically dissipates 41.66 6.65 7.29 40. Cyber warfare is more difficult to detect and triples in damages from 2010 levels. 63.62 6.54 6.45 51. Economic growth spike in other global regions limits ability to attract talent 73.46 6.44 6.79 42. Middle East oil producing countries successfully diversify beyond energy production (50% of income from sources other than oil) 34.57 6.32 6.17
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28. Tech Mining leverages text and data mining to analyze information. Since tech mining allows us to use computers to “read” the information, we can digest far more information than we could traditionally absorb. What does Tech Mining give us?
40. Cognitive Sci. Agri Sci Biomed Sci Chemistry Physics Engineering Env Sci & Tech Mtls Sci Infectious Diseases Psychology Social Studies Clinical Med Computer Sci. Business & MGT Geosciences Ecol Sci Econ. Polit. & Geography Health & Social Issues Azerbaijan Research, 2005-09 on Global Map of Science, SCI-SSCI 2007
41. Research Profile: Azerbaijan 2005-09 by Disciplines (top 5) Case Examples Macro-Discipline Author Affiliations Key Terms Authors Year Top 3 Top 5 Top 3 2008-09 Chemistry[475] Natl Acad Sci Azerbaijan [119] Baku State Univ [95] Azerbaijan Acad Sci [48] synthesis [72] thermodynamic properties [27] Density [24] Water [23] methanol [21] Abdulagatov, I M [25] Magerramov, A M [19] Chyragov, F M [18] 48% of 475 Materials Sci[382] Azerbaijan Acad Sci [95] Baku State Univ [66] Azerbaijan Natl Acad Sci [64] effect [29] TlInS2 [19] Incommensurate phase [17] CRYSTALS [17] SINGLE-CRYSTALS [14] Suleymanov, R A [16] Altindal, S [14] Tagiev, O B [13] Mammadov, T S [13] 51% of 382 Engineering[333] Natl Acad Sci Azerbaijan [83] Baku State Univ [74] Azerbaijan Acad Sci [38] methanol [14] Initial stresses [11] sufficient conditions [10] thermodynamic properties [10] approximation [10] boundedness [10] Akbarov, S D [22] Guliyev, V S [16] Khanmamedov, A K [9] Abdulagatov, I M [9] Nasibov, S M [9] 50% of 333 Physics[231] Azerbaijan Acad Sci [58] Baku State Univ [47] Azerbaijan Natl Acad Sci [35] MODEL [22] PHYSICS [12] SCATTERING [10] VARIABILITY [10] SYSTEMS [9] Shahverdiev, E M [13] Shore, K A [13] Aliev, T M [12] Sultansoy, S [12] 51% of 231 Biomed Sci[105] Baku State Univ [27] Azerbaijan Med Univ [9] Azerbaijan Acad Sci [7] EFFICIENCY [10] sturgeons [8] diencephalon [7] CYTOARCHITECTONIC ANALYSIS [7] Azerbaijan [7] EXPRESSION [7] organization [7] Zeynalov, R [9] Musayev, I [9] Rustamov, E K [8] Dadasheva, N [8] 39% of 105
42. Research Profile: Baku State University – 5 Researchers Case Examples Authors Subject Category Key Terms Authors Year Top 5 Items Top 5 Items Top 5 Items 2008-09 Magerramov, A M[19] Chemistry, Applied [8] Chemistry, Organic [7] Chemistry, Physical [3] Materials Science, Multidisciplinary [2] Optics [2] reaction [9] synthesis [9] DERIVATIVES [4] reactions [3] formation [3] Magerramov, A M [19] Allakhverdiev, M A [9] Mamedov, I G [5] Bairamov, M R [5] Farzaliev, V M [4] Rzaeva, I A [4] 68% of 19 Chyragov, F M[18] Chemistry, Analytical [14] Chemistry, Inorganic & Nuclear [4] complexation [15] photometric determination [11] stability constants [8] Chyragov, F M [18] Gadzhieva, S R [12] Makhmudov, K T [6] Alieva, R A [5] Guseinov, F E [4] 17% of 18 Allakhverdiev, M A[14] Chemistry, Applied [8] Chemistry, Organic [5] Chemistry, Physical [3] Energy & Fuels [2] Engineering, Chemical [2] Engineering, Petroleum [2] synthesis [8] reaction [6] antioxidant activity [3] cumene [3] Allakhverdiev, M A [14] Magerramov, A M [9] Farzaliev, V M [6] Rzaeva, I A [6] Guseinova, A T [4] 79% of 14 Gadzhieva, S R[14] Chemistry, Analytical [9] Chemistry, Inorganic & Nuclear [5] complexation [11] photometric determination [8] stability constants [6] Gadzhieva, S R [14] Chyragov, F M [12] Makhmudov, K T [6] Guseinov, F E [4] Pashaev, F G [3] 29% of 14 Babanly, M B[12] Materials Science, Multidisciplinary [8] Electrochemistry [2] Chemistry, Inorganic & Nuclear [2] X-ray diffraction [7] thermodynamic properties [6] differential thermal analysis [6] standard entropies [5] Babanly, M B [12] Babanly, N B [2] Sadygov, F M [2] Shykhyev, Y M [2] Imamalieva, S Z [2] Yusibov, Y A [2] 100% of 12
03/03/11 See the separate set of slides on Tech Mining case examples Our ceramics engine case is appended here too.
Loser only in the sense of no return on prior investment Ceramic vapor deposition = the thin films Sandia developed; spun off to a company. Purpose was for electronics mfg – components without etching. People in electronics used different terminology – able to explore very diff discipline with diff applications. (And Bob knew nothing about these) Interest from early analyses – showed publication not up too much, but complexity of the research well up. Beyond standard bibliometrics – counting – “dead area”. Kinds of organizations and richness of R&D – implying transition to real applications advancing. Bridging resources, able to show also patent activity and business lit interest rising. ~1987 talk about this R&D, but settled down to some key areas. Running ceramics to failure. By early 90s depth of R&D up – e.g., Mitsubishi patenting ceramic truck engine.