This document provides an overview of the schedule and topics for a futures research methodology class. The class covers environmental scanning, wild cards, and prediction markets on March 8th. It includes readings to complete and assignments such as setting up real-time Delphis for class projects and selecting topics for individual research projects. The document outlines the course schedule and objectives for each class over the semester.
This presentation was held for the FTA conference. It stresses the importance of "Wild card and impact rich issue" narratives as instruments that are used by individuals and groups as mean to influence future developments.
Angelo Susi' s presentation at PMI Academic Workshop 2016Silvia Valentini
The RISCOSS project aimed to specify risk identification, management, and mitigation methods for open source software adoption. It developed a 3-layer framework using statistical, logic-based, and multi-criteria decision making techniques to assess risks at the software, community, and business levels. The framework was evaluated through a collaboration between the Fondazione Bruno Kessler and the Project Management Institute - Trento Chapter, where volunteers used the tool to evaluate predefined and real-world scenarios and provided feedback on its usefulness and usability.
The results of the RISCOSS evaluation have been presented in the PMI academic workshop 2016 at the United Nations Global Service Centre in Brindisi. Many thanks to PMI-NIC volunteers and to TAAS branch.
The results of the RISCOSS evaluation have been presented in the PMI academic workshop 2016 at the United Nations Global Service Centre in Brindisi. Many thanks to PMI-NIC volunteers and to TAAS branch.
A summary of my personal expertise and knowledge completed by a description of some of the most relevant research and developments engagements carried out so far via specific examples
This presentation was held for the FTA conference. It stresses the importance of "Wild card and impact rich issue" narratives as instruments that are used by individuals and groups as mean to influence future developments.
Angelo Susi' s presentation at PMI Academic Workshop 2016Silvia Valentini
The RISCOSS project aimed to specify risk identification, management, and mitigation methods for open source software adoption. It developed a 3-layer framework using statistical, logic-based, and multi-criteria decision making techniques to assess risks at the software, community, and business levels. The framework was evaluated through a collaboration between the Fondazione Bruno Kessler and the Project Management Institute - Trento Chapter, where volunteers used the tool to evaluate predefined and real-world scenarios and provided feedback on its usefulness and usability.
The results of the RISCOSS evaluation have been presented in the PMI academic workshop 2016 at the United Nations Global Service Centre in Brindisi. Many thanks to PMI-NIC volunteers and to TAAS branch.
The results of the RISCOSS evaluation have been presented in the PMI academic workshop 2016 at the United Nations Global Service Centre in Brindisi. Many thanks to PMI-NIC volunteers and to TAAS branch.
A summary of my personal expertise and knowledge completed by a description of some of the most relevant research and developments engagements carried out so far via specific examples
Australia's Environmental Predictive CapabilityTERN Australia
Federating world-leading research, data and technical capabilities to create Australia’s National Environmental Prediction System (NEPS).
Community consultation presentation.
3-12 February 2020
Dr Michelle Barker (Facilitator)
(Presentation v5)
This document summarizes the methodology used to evaluate knowledge in the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). It describes a theory-based approach using multiple components: mapping FAO's complex knowledge structure; developing evaluation questions; conducting case studies, surveys, and a meta-evaluation of past reports; and analyzing data through contribution analysis and cybermetrics. The methodology provided increased learning around using a theory of change but drawing overall conclusions was challenging given FAO's diverse knowledge production and management.
Automatic Classification of Springer Nature Proceedings with Smart Topic MinerFrancesco Osborne
The document summarizes research on automatically classifying Springer Nature proceedings using the Smart Topic Miner (STM). STM extracts topics from publications, maps them to a computer science ontology, selects relevant topics using a greedy algorithm, and infers tags. It was tested on 8 Springer Nature editors who found STM accurately classified 75-90% of proceedings and improved their work. However, STM is currently limited to computer science and occasional noisy results were found in books with few chapters. Future work aims to expand STM to characterize topic evolution over time and directly support author tagging.
The Statistical Office (SORS) and the Social Science Data Archives (ADP) are both partners of the DwB project which promotes a more thorough cooperation between European archives, NSI's and research communities. To improve the conditions in the research environment and promote official statistics microdata use in Slovenia, SORS and ADP decided to add additional activities to the cooperation.
SORS collects and distributes a significant amount of data and a researchers' need for an additional support has been recognized. Easy-to-use microdata, quality metadata and a detailed overview of available data-sets are needed. Files that a researcher receives from SORS are mostly limited to ASCII delimited microdata files and questionnaires. ADP adds value (1) by preparing microdata in a format which could later be changed to any desired statistical software format, (2) by adding variable and value labels and missing values, (3) by providing additional logical data checks, (4) preparing metadata using DDI standard and organizing all the documentation a researcher might need in one place in the safe room or by the remote access and (5) programming a tool to browse micro- and metadata. Public use files (PUF) will also be prepared by both organizations and distributed by ADP. Additionally, a list of available SORS microdata will soon be made available on both SORS and ADP webpages.
Slovenian cooperation is an example of a good practice and should be as such, in a country specific form, implemented in other European countries as well.
"Data in Context" IG sessions @ RDA 3rd PlenaryBrigitte Jörg
The Data in Context Interest Group at the 3rd RDA Plenary in Dublin discussed developing standards and requirements for representing data context through the data lifecycle. They reviewed several existing data lifecycle and metadata models, as well as relevant standards organizations. Their work plan involves creating an overview of context-aware standards by month 6 and a prioritized requirements list by month 12. The long-term goal is to establish a Working Group to implement standardized profiles and enable automated transformation between standards to represent data context.
Data in Context Interest Group Sessions @ RDA 3rd Plenary, Dublin (March 26-2...Brigitte Jörg
The Data in Context Interest Group at the 3rd RDA Plenary in Dublin discussed developing a common understanding of data context and lifecycles. They reviewed several existing data lifecycle models and standards that address contextual metadata. Their goals are to provide an overview of relevant standardization work, prioritize requirements, and establish a working group to further develop standardized profiles and facilitate transformation between standards to represent data context. The group plans initial deliverables reviewing contextual standards work and prioritizing requirements, to inform establishing a working group.
PERICLES presentation on Appraisal - IDCC15 workshopPERICLES_FP7
This presentation was presented during the PERICLES workshop entitled “automated capture of the environment in a sheer curation context”, which took place at the 10th International Digital Curation Conference on the 11 Feb 2015 in London, UK.
Simon Waddington (King’s College London) provided an outline of the objectives of the recently started investigation into appraisal. As there exist a number of definitions of appraisal, such as “identifying digital objects of continuing business value”, the question of relevant appraisal criteria and their evaluation was raised, motivated by examples from the PERICLES science and media case studies.
- The document discusses open risk analysis software, data, and methodologies. It introduces the Alliance for Global Open Risk Analysis (AGORA), which aims to promote open-source risk analysis tools and collaboration.
- AGORA includes universities and organizations that work to develop open-source risk software, share data and methodologies, and facilitate information exchange.
- An example project described is MIRISK, which intends to create a user-friendly tool using open-source software to help decision-makers assess natural hazard risks and vulnerabilities.
C1.04: GOOS Biology and Ecosystems Panel - In a complex space can we fit a si...Blue Planet Symposium
There is no single model that describes how marine biodiversity and ecosystems are fairing or predict how they will change in the future under increasing anthropogenic pressures. Thus there is no unique set of Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) for biological components of the ecosystem that will satisfy the scientific understanding needed to support and monitor management actions. Yet there is a need to come to international agreement on a set of variables that can be developed globally to support advanced and advancing countries and international conventions in understanding and managing the marine environment. The DPSIR framework is a commonly accepted framework used to identify the information needs to understand and manage human impacts on the environment and provides one high level model that can guide the process to identify EOVs. It is a complex space with many existing initiatives that we need to integrate with and build on. In this talk we are seeking input and feedback on our early progress in filling in this framework:
D what are the societal questions, sectoral trends, national and international obligations and that Drive the need to monitor marine biodiversity and ecosystem health
P what are the human Pressures affecting the environment that are or will impact marine biodiversity and ecosystem health
S what are the existing initiatives that could be built on to measure the State of the marine environment
I what are the priority Impacts on the marine environment that need to be monitored and how well do existing initiatives address those needs – what are the key gaps
R which monitoring information is most likely to be used to help society Respond to identified impacts
Expert workshop on Improving activity data for Tier 2 estimates of livestock emissions: Dealing with data gaps
July 17-18, 2018
Summary and workplan
Lini Wollenberg, Sinead Leahy, Harry Clark
Global Futures Intelligence System talk at WFSF 2013Jerome Glenn
The document summarizes the work of The Millennium Project, a global futures research organization. It describes The Millennium Project as a collaborative system with Nodes around the world that identify experts, translate materials, and conduct workshops. The purposes of The Millennium Project are to improve thinking about the future and make that thinking available for policymaking, education, and public education. Key aspects of their work include studies using a global network, an annual State of the Future report on 15 Global Challenges, and developing methodologies for futures research. The Global Futures Intelligence System (GFIS) is presented as a collective intelligence system that brings all their work and resources together in an online platform.
iSamples Research Coordination Network (C4P Webinar)Kerstin Lehnert
The iSamples (Internet of Samples in the Earth Sciences) Research Coordination Network is part of EarthCube and focuses on the integration of physical samples and collections into digital data infrastructure in the Earth sciences. This presentation summarizes the activities of the iSamples RCN and presents results from a major community survey about sharing and management of physical samples that was conducted as part of the RCN.
This document summarizes the key steps and considerations for conducting a systematic literature review (SLR). It provides two examples of SLRs conducted on software architecture evolution and CBSE publications. The main steps discussed are developing a review protocol, searching literature sources, selecting primary studies, extracting and analyzing data, and synthesizing findings. For the software architecture evolution SLR, 82 primary studies were analyzed and classified into different categories. For the CBSE publications SLR, 318 papers were analyzed to understand impact, topics covered, and maturity levels. Both SLRs extracted statistical data on publications and citations to synthesize new findings on research trends and maturity. Validation of the SLR process and findings is also an important consideration.
Introduction to Futures Studies: Methods and TechniquesVahid Shamekhi
This document provides an overview of various futures studies methods and techniques, including:
1) Technology monitoring and forecasting to gather information and anticipate technological changes.
2) Qualitative and quantitative techniques like scenario planning, roadmapping, and cross-impact analysis to explore uncertainties and alternative futures.
3) Participatory methods like the Delphi technique and futures workshops to incorporate diverse perspectives.
It also describes several specific techniques in more detail, such as environmental scanning, trend analysis, causal layered analysis, and relevance trees/morphological analysis. The document serves as an introduction to the field of futures studies and the range of analytical approaches used.
The document discusses the Humidtropics program, which takes an integrated systems approach to agricultural research across several humid tropical regions. It outlines the program's theory of change, framework, flagship projects, site selection process, and collaboration with other CGIAR research programs. The program aims to enhance livelihoods and environmental sustainability through systems research, innovation, and partnerships in target regions including West Africa, East and Central Africa, Central America and the Caribbean, and the Central Mekong.
Role of ontologies in beach safety management analytics systemsMahdi_Fahmideh
Events at public beaches are one of the most popular recreational activities of local communities and international visitors in all places around the world. Amongst others, the beach safety management in protected areas needs support for continuous analysis and decision making on incidents at the beach areas. There is a lack of available standard models to assist data scientists to represent analytics models including different spheres of interplay domain variables related to beach safety management. Using the Design Science Research Methodology (DSRM), we developed ontological models that facilitate a unified representation and maintenance analytics models. We contribute to the ontology design theory for analytics models underlying analytics systems for the beach safety management domain. Our research findings can be used in the general class of ontology design problem for analytics systems in practice.
Presentation given at the 1st Regional Workshop on Microdata Access in European Countries, titled "Cooperation between National Statistical Institutes & Social Science Data Archives". The emphasis was on providing an overview of forms of the cooperation between the Social Sicence data archives and the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia.
Humidtropics presentation describing how the Program organizes its regional research, and which principles and procedures it applies for site selection - Meeting of CGIAR’s Independent Science and Partnership Council (ISPC), September 2014.
This document discusses making bioinformatics tools more accessible to non-experts. It describes developing easy-to-use tools and distributing them online through platforms like GenePattern. GenePattern provides a simple interface for analyzing genomic data using tools from R, Java and other languages without requiring local computing resources. The author has used GenePattern successfully in teaching and workshops. Developing GenePattern modules for analyzing second generation sequencing data could further increase accessibility. A community effort involving researchers and end users is needed to develop useful tools and facilitate their uptake.
Australia's Environmental Predictive CapabilityTERN Australia
Federating world-leading research, data and technical capabilities to create Australia’s National Environmental Prediction System (NEPS).
Community consultation presentation.
3-12 February 2020
Dr Michelle Barker (Facilitator)
(Presentation v5)
This document summarizes the methodology used to evaluate knowledge in the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). It describes a theory-based approach using multiple components: mapping FAO's complex knowledge structure; developing evaluation questions; conducting case studies, surveys, and a meta-evaluation of past reports; and analyzing data through contribution analysis and cybermetrics. The methodology provided increased learning around using a theory of change but drawing overall conclusions was challenging given FAO's diverse knowledge production and management.
Automatic Classification of Springer Nature Proceedings with Smart Topic MinerFrancesco Osborne
The document summarizes research on automatically classifying Springer Nature proceedings using the Smart Topic Miner (STM). STM extracts topics from publications, maps them to a computer science ontology, selects relevant topics using a greedy algorithm, and infers tags. It was tested on 8 Springer Nature editors who found STM accurately classified 75-90% of proceedings and improved their work. However, STM is currently limited to computer science and occasional noisy results were found in books with few chapters. Future work aims to expand STM to characterize topic evolution over time and directly support author tagging.
The Statistical Office (SORS) and the Social Science Data Archives (ADP) are both partners of the DwB project which promotes a more thorough cooperation between European archives, NSI's and research communities. To improve the conditions in the research environment and promote official statistics microdata use in Slovenia, SORS and ADP decided to add additional activities to the cooperation.
SORS collects and distributes a significant amount of data and a researchers' need for an additional support has been recognized. Easy-to-use microdata, quality metadata and a detailed overview of available data-sets are needed. Files that a researcher receives from SORS are mostly limited to ASCII delimited microdata files and questionnaires. ADP adds value (1) by preparing microdata in a format which could later be changed to any desired statistical software format, (2) by adding variable and value labels and missing values, (3) by providing additional logical data checks, (4) preparing metadata using DDI standard and organizing all the documentation a researcher might need in one place in the safe room or by the remote access and (5) programming a tool to browse micro- and metadata. Public use files (PUF) will also be prepared by both organizations and distributed by ADP. Additionally, a list of available SORS microdata will soon be made available on both SORS and ADP webpages.
Slovenian cooperation is an example of a good practice and should be as such, in a country specific form, implemented in other European countries as well.
"Data in Context" IG sessions @ RDA 3rd PlenaryBrigitte Jörg
The Data in Context Interest Group at the 3rd RDA Plenary in Dublin discussed developing standards and requirements for representing data context through the data lifecycle. They reviewed several existing data lifecycle and metadata models, as well as relevant standards organizations. Their work plan involves creating an overview of context-aware standards by month 6 and a prioritized requirements list by month 12. The long-term goal is to establish a Working Group to implement standardized profiles and enable automated transformation between standards to represent data context.
Data in Context Interest Group Sessions @ RDA 3rd Plenary, Dublin (March 26-2...Brigitte Jörg
The Data in Context Interest Group at the 3rd RDA Plenary in Dublin discussed developing a common understanding of data context and lifecycles. They reviewed several existing data lifecycle models and standards that address contextual metadata. Their goals are to provide an overview of relevant standardization work, prioritize requirements, and establish a working group to further develop standardized profiles and facilitate transformation between standards to represent data context. The group plans initial deliverables reviewing contextual standards work and prioritizing requirements, to inform establishing a working group.
PERICLES presentation on Appraisal - IDCC15 workshopPERICLES_FP7
This presentation was presented during the PERICLES workshop entitled “automated capture of the environment in a sheer curation context”, which took place at the 10th International Digital Curation Conference on the 11 Feb 2015 in London, UK.
Simon Waddington (King’s College London) provided an outline of the objectives of the recently started investigation into appraisal. As there exist a number of definitions of appraisal, such as “identifying digital objects of continuing business value”, the question of relevant appraisal criteria and their evaluation was raised, motivated by examples from the PERICLES science and media case studies.
- The document discusses open risk analysis software, data, and methodologies. It introduces the Alliance for Global Open Risk Analysis (AGORA), which aims to promote open-source risk analysis tools and collaboration.
- AGORA includes universities and organizations that work to develop open-source risk software, share data and methodologies, and facilitate information exchange.
- An example project described is MIRISK, which intends to create a user-friendly tool using open-source software to help decision-makers assess natural hazard risks and vulnerabilities.
C1.04: GOOS Biology and Ecosystems Panel - In a complex space can we fit a si...Blue Planet Symposium
There is no single model that describes how marine biodiversity and ecosystems are fairing or predict how they will change in the future under increasing anthropogenic pressures. Thus there is no unique set of Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) for biological components of the ecosystem that will satisfy the scientific understanding needed to support and monitor management actions. Yet there is a need to come to international agreement on a set of variables that can be developed globally to support advanced and advancing countries and international conventions in understanding and managing the marine environment. The DPSIR framework is a commonly accepted framework used to identify the information needs to understand and manage human impacts on the environment and provides one high level model that can guide the process to identify EOVs. It is a complex space with many existing initiatives that we need to integrate with and build on. In this talk we are seeking input and feedback on our early progress in filling in this framework:
D what are the societal questions, sectoral trends, national and international obligations and that Drive the need to monitor marine biodiversity and ecosystem health
P what are the human Pressures affecting the environment that are or will impact marine biodiversity and ecosystem health
S what are the existing initiatives that could be built on to measure the State of the marine environment
I what are the priority Impacts on the marine environment that need to be monitored and how well do existing initiatives address those needs – what are the key gaps
R which monitoring information is most likely to be used to help society Respond to identified impacts
Expert workshop on Improving activity data for Tier 2 estimates of livestock emissions: Dealing with data gaps
July 17-18, 2018
Summary and workplan
Lini Wollenberg, Sinead Leahy, Harry Clark
Global Futures Intelligence System talk at WFSF 2013Jerome Glenn
The document summarizes the work of The Millennium Project, a global futures research organization. It describes The Millennium Project as a collaborative system with Nodes around the world that identify experts, translate materials, and conduct workshops. The purposes of The Millennium Project are to improve thinking about the future and make that thinking available for policymaking, education, and public education. Key aspects of their work include studies using a global network, an annual State of the Future report on 15 Global Challenges, and developing methodologies for futures research. The Global Futures Intelligence System (GFIS) is presented as a collective intelligence system that brings all their work and resources together in an online platform.
iSamples Research Coordination Network (C4P Webinar)Kerstin Lehnert
The iSamples (Internet of Samples in the Earth Sciences) Research Coordination Network is part of EarthCube and focuses on the integration of physical samples and collections into digital data infrastructure in the Earth sciences. This presentation summarizes the activities of the iSamples RCN and presents results from a major community survey about sharing and management of physical samples that was conducted as part of the RCN.
This document summarizes the key steps and considerations for conducting a systematic literature review (SLR). It provides two examples of SLRs conducted on software architecture evolution and CBSE publications. The main steps discussed are developing a review protocol, searching literature sources, selecting primary studies, extracting and analyzing data, and synthesizing findings. For the software architecture evolution SLR, 82 primary studies were analyzed and classified into different categories. For the CBSE publications SLR, 318 papers were analyzed to understand impact, topics covered, and maturity levels. Both SLRs extracted statistical data on publications and citations to synthesize new findings on research trends and maturity. Validation of the SLR process and findings is also an important consideration.
Introduction to Futures Studies: Methods and TechniquesVahid Shamekhi
This document provides an overview of various futures studies methods and techniques, including:
1) Technology monitoring and forecasting to gather information and anticipate technological changes.
2) Qualitative and quantitative techniques like scenario planning, roadmapping, and cross-impact analysis to explore uncertainties and alternative futures.
3) Participatory methods like the Delphi technique and futures workshops to incorporate diverse perspectives.
It also describes several specific techniques in more detail, such as environmental scanning, trend analysis, causal layered analysis, and relevance trees/morphological analysis. The document serves as an introduction to the field of futures studies and the range of analytical approaches used.
The document discusses the Humidtropics program, which takes an integrated systems approach to agricultural research across several humid tropical regions. It outlines the program's theory of change, framework, flagship projects, site selection process, and collaboration with other CGIAR research programs. The program aims to enhance livelihoods and environmental sustainability through systems research, innovation, and partnerships in target regions including West Africa, East and Central Africa, Central America and the Caribbean, and the Central Mekong.
Role of ontologies in beach safety management analytics systemsMahdi_Fahmideh
Events at public beaches are one of the most popular recreational activities of local communities and international visitors in all places around the world. Amongst others, the beach safety management in protected areas needs support for continuous analysis and decision making on incidents at the beach areas. There is a lack of available standard models to assist data scientists to represent analytics models including different spheres of interplay domain variables related to beach safety management. Using the Design Science Research Methodology (DSRM), we developed ontological models that facilitate a unified representation and maintenance analytics models. We contribute to the ontology design theory for analytics models underlying analytics systems for the beach safety management domain. Our research findings can be used in the general class of ontology design problem for analytics systems in practice.
Presentation given at the 1st Regional Workshop on Microdata Access in European Countries, titled "Cooperation between National Statistical Institutes & Social Science Data Archives". The emphasis was on providing an overview of forms of the cooperation between the Social Sicence data archives and the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia.
Humidtropics presentation describing how the Program organizes its regional research, and which principles and procedures it applies for site selection - Meeting of CGIAR’s Independent Science and Partnership Council (ISPC), September 2014.
This document discusses making bioinformatics tools more accessible to non-experts. It describes developing easy-to-use tools and distributing them online through platforms like GenePattern. GenePattern provides a simple interface for analyzing genomic data using tools from R, Java and other languages without requiring local computing resources. The author has used GenePattern successfully in teaching and workshops. Developing GenePattern modules for analyzing second generation sequencing data could further increase accessibility. A community effort involving researchers and end users is needed to develop useful tools and facilitate their uptake.
Similar to Futures methods year4-class3-es-wc-pm (20)
1. Futures Research Methodology
Second Semester, Class 3
Environmental Scanning
Wild Cards
Prediction Markets
The Azerbaijan State Economic University
March 8, 2013
Reyhan Huseynova, AFSS & ASEU
Jerome Glenn, Executive Director
Theodore Gordon, Senior Research Fellow
Elizabeth Florescu, Research Director
Jose Cordeiro, Venezuela Node Chair
www.millennium-project.org
2. Semester 2 Course Schedule
READ: https://themp.org/content/methods-table-of-contents.html
•February 22, Class 1: Review Semester 1, Introduction to futures methods,
individual and class projects
•March 1, Class 2: Delphi, Real-Time Delphi (RTD) (Future Day!)
•March 8, Class 3: Environmental Scanning, Wild Cards, Prediction Markets (IWD!)
•March 15, Class 4: State of the Future Index (SOFI)
•March 22, No Class: Spring Festival, Happy Novruz!
•March 29, Class 5: Data Mining, Cross Impact Analysis and Trend Impact Analysis
•April 5, Class 6: Scenarios, Interactive Scenarios, Normative Forecasting
•April 12, Class 7: Mid-term Exam (Status Report); Gaming and Simulations
•April 19, Class 8: Statistical Modeling, IFs, Chaos and Non-Linear Systems
•April 26, Class 9: Collective Intelligence, Futures Wheel
•May 3, Class 10: Participatory Methods
•May 10, Class 11: Frontiers of Futures Research
•May 17, Class 12: Final Exam (written reports, briefing presentations and videos)
3. Review of Class 2
• Delphi and Real Time Delphi (RTD)
• Azerbaijan SOFI
• Review Az-SOFI 2011
• Real Time Delphi online access
• Peace Scenarios (Middle East example)
http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/rd1-mepeace.html
http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/rd2-mepeace.html
http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/MEPS-rd3.html
http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/study04.html
• Review literature and treaties
• Real Time Delphi online access
4. Set up RTDs for Class Projects
• Use the administrator login: student@FScourse.net
(but do not change the password)
• For editing, please access: https://themp.org/rtd/
Az-SOFI 2013
https://themp.org/rtd/azerbaijan_2013_sofi/
Peace Scenarios
https://themp.org/rtd/azerbaijan_peace_scenarios_study
5. Assignments for Class 3
• Reading of chapters in FRM v3:
https://themp.org/content/methods-table-of-contents.html
• Environmental Scanning (Chapter 2)
• Wild Cards (Chapter 10)
• Prediction Markets (Chapter 26)
• Preliminary results of the RTDs set up
• List of variables and historic data for Az-SOFI
• Discussion on the peace preconditions
• List of experts to be invited to participate
• Selection of Topics for Individual Projects
6. Final Class Projects
Individual research on Class (2 groups) reports
a specific topic on Future of Azerbaijan
Choose a specific subject, e.g.:
economy, energy, technology, State of the Future Index Peace Scenarios
governance, environment, health, (SOFI) for Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh conflict)
international relations, etc.
and show how its evolution could
impact the future of Azerbaijan
Written report and Written report, Written report,
briefing briefing and video briefing and video
Optional: contributing, writing or editing an article in Wikipedia or GFIS
(Global Futures Intelligence System, The Millennium Project)
7. Individual Research Topics
Examples (4-5 pages for final class, including graphs):
• Improving innovation in Azerbaijan
• Alternative energy futures for Azerbaijan by 2025
• Alternative economic drivers for Azerbaijan by 2025
• Post-oil futures for Azerbaijan
• Employment distribution by 2025
• Social demographics of Azerbaijan to 2025 and beyond
• Geopolitical futures for the Caucasus region by 2025
• Health in the future
• Artificial biology and its effects on Azerbaijan
• Tele-Azerbaijan
8.
9. Environmental Scanning
• Everyone does environmental scanning
• Vital to futures research – as Crow’s Nest on a ship
• “Environmental Scanning” used in the 1960-1980s
• Other terms used today:
• Futures Scanning Systems
• Early Warning Systems
• Horizon Scanning
• Futures Intelligence Systems
• Increasingly the output is being called “Collective
Intelligence”
10. Purposes of Scanning Systems
1. Identify threats and opportunities
2. Monitor information sources about these threats and
opportunities that can provide early warning
3. Support the analysis of the information to produce intelligence
and incorporation into an information system
4. Respond to feedback about the utility of such early warnings in
order to change information sought; and hence, continually
improve the system and the collective intelligence for strategic
planning, policies, and decisionamking in general
Horizon scanning capability - ‘systematic examination of information to identify
potential threats, risks, emerging issues and opportunities, beyond the
Parliamentary term’
Jon Day, Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee, UK
11. Scanning Steps
• Determine the theme and key words
• Choose sources
• Recognize signal of noise
• Identify issues
• Identify patterns
• Recognize strong and weak signals
• Examined the issues separately and in context
• Use ICT tools to expand knowledge (collaboration,
social networks, tweets, blogs, etc.)
12. General Model of Scanning
• Category/Domain/Theme
• Sources (news, reports, papers, etc.)
• Leading issues
• Leading sources (most reliable and complex)
• Data availability (indicators, databases, etc.)
• Knowledge gaps
• Significance to the future (timeframe,
importance, scope and spectrum of impact)
• Objectives
13. General Model of Scanning (cont.)
• Relation to other issues/domains
• Current status and potential trajectories
• Actors
• Potential strategies
• Timeframes
• Who is observing the issues (subscribe,
establish contact)
• Write report
14. Tools for Scanning
• Feeds (RSS) , news listserves, Google News,
tweets, etc.
• Social network analysis (blogs, facebook, etc.)
• Wikies
• Bookmarklet
• Data Mining
• Use of aggregators
• Computer-augmented collaborative systems
• Create your own files with categories and scores
• Personalize collective intelligence software
16. Aggregation
Use ICT to aggregate:
• News
• Expert opinions
• Identify clusters
• Find agglomeration of items, or items that are
“outsiders”
• Identify patterns
• Update present situation
Open Source frameworks make data available on the
emerging semantic web using sets of conventions
17. Experts and those with Insight
• Candidate panelists can be identified through literature searches,
nomination by two or more peers, "daisy chains” and
recommendations of professional organizations
• Panelists should be compensated
• Important qualifications of panelists are their discipline, experience,
work, and interests, creativity
• Questions of fact should be directed to panelists who are experts;
panelists should be able to excuse themselves from answering
questions beyond their expertise
• Panelist responses should be anonymous when fed back to the
group as a whole, although the list of participants should be known
to all
• In any practical design, the number of respondents will be small;
therefore, an environment "lookout" panel cannot produce
statistically significant results.
18. Environmental Scanning Example
• Emerging Environmental Security Issues
(http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/env-
scanning.html)
• Monthly
(see also http://www.aepi.army.mil/reports)
• Organized by themes (e.g. ES-2010-11.pdf)
19. Monthly Scanning Report
www.aepi.army.mil (click reports)
Item 1. An Emerging Nordic-Baltic Alliance Might Have Security Implications……………1
Item 2. International Air Cargo Screening Cooperation Requested…………………………1
Item 3. Fuel efficiency standards are changing around the world…….……………………...2
Item 4. Prosecution of Pillage of Natural Resources as War Crime………………………….2
Item 5. Technological Advances with Environmental Security Implications………………..3
5.1 Flexible Supercapacitor Could Power Wearable Environmental Sensors……..…….3
5.2 Nanoimprint May Create Synthetic, Chemical-Free, Anti-Bacterial Surfaces……....3
5.3 Potential Bioweapon Countermeasure against Ebola and Marburg Virus……..…….4
5.4 Charged Particle Generators Produce Desert “Rainstorms”……...…………………..4
5.5 New Detection and Cleanup Techniques………...………………………………...…4
5.6 Environment-friendly Cement Processes………..………………………………...…6
Item 6. Updates on Previously Identified Issues…………………………………………….....6
6.1 UN Review of Sustainable Development in Preparation for Rio+20 in 2012……….6
6.2 More Aggressive Action Needed to Curb Ozone Depletions………………………..7
6.3. The Battle for Rare Earth Elements Continues…………………………………...…7
6.4 EU to Set Resource Efficiency Targets………………………………………………8
6.5 NATO Continues to Develop Cyber Defense Policies……………………………….8
6.6 India Urges Strengthening Outer Space Treaty……………………………………....9
6.7 Climate Change………………………………………………………..……….…….9
6.7.1 Scientific Evidence and Natural Disasters……………………………………..9
6.7.2 Food and Water Security……………………………………………………..10
6.7.3 Melting glaciers and sea ice…………………………………………………..10
6.7.4 Health…………………………………………………………………………10
6.7.5 Computer Modeling and Scenarios…………………………………...………11
6.8 Nanotechnology Safety Issues……………………………………………………....11
Item 7. Reports and Information Suggested for Review……………………………………..12
7.1 Comprehensive Assessment of Environmental Security……………………………12
7.2 New Global Land Cover Maps……………………………………………...………12
7.3 Evolution of Environmental Management Philosophy in China……………...…….12
Appendix…………………………………………………………………………….…………..14
20. Example of a Scanning Item
Item 3. Fuel efficiency standards are changing around the world
UNEP in cooperation with other agencies has developed guidelines on sustainable procurement
of vehicles for the UN. Recent reports by international organizations are pointing to the need for
globally harmonized standards for assessing the efficiency of different fuels and relevant new
technologies. The UN Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) report Motor Systems
Efficiency Supply Curves notes the lack of a transparent methodology for quantifying the energy
efficiency of motor systems and insufficient data for documenting present and future cost
effectiveness potentials. The International Energy Agency’s 50by50 Prospects and Progress
report calls for global fuel economy reduction to about 8L/100km with emissions halved in new
automobiles by 2030 and in all automobiles by 2050 (by the Global Fuel Economy Initiative). A
European expert group states that alternative fuels could replace fossil fuels by 2050. A RAND
Corporation study Alternative Fuels for Military Applications concludes that the military should
direct its efforts more towards increasing energy efficiency rather than investing in alternative
fuels.
Military Implications:
It is fair to speculate that the UN procurement guidelines might be expanded to peacekeeping
operations and therefore affect the military and its contractors. At the same time, fuel efficiency
standards are increasing around the world, which increases the likelihood of global standards with
assessment methodologies eventually affecting the military. The opportunity for military-to-
military programs in fuel efficiency should be explored.
Sources:
Buying Better Vehicles for the UN
http://www.greeningtheblue.org/news/buying-better-vehicles-un
New report gives green light to the feasibility of halving carbon emissions from new cars by 2030
http://www.iea.org/index_info.asp?id=1775
Clean Transport Systems
http://ec.europa.eu/transport/urban/vehicles/road/clean_transport_systems_en.htm
RAND study concludes use of alternative fuels by US military would convey no direct military
benefit; recommends energy efficiency instead
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2011/01/rand-20110125.html
23. Collective Intelligence
• It is an emergent property
• from synergies among
• data/info/knowledge
• software/hardware
• experts and others with insight
• that continually learns from feedback
• to produce (nearly) just in time knowledge
for better decisions
• than these elements acting alone
29. Wild Cards
• Surprise events that:
• are “barely possible” according to conventional thinking
• have low probability of occurring
• would have high impact if they would occur
• act as “disruptors”
• shock the entire system
• have consequences that not obvious
• Black Swans
• rare/surprise event
• extreme 'impact‘
• retrospectively (not prospectively) predictable
30. Types of Wild Cards
• Known or unknown
• Predictable or unpredictable
• Announced by weak signals or not
• Single or cascading event(s)
• Avoidable or unavoidable
• Simple or complex
• Positive or negative
• Immediate impact or prolonged
• Monitorable or non-monitorable
31. Examples of Wild Cards
• Past: 9/11; stock market crash; discovery of
DNA; understanding the “unknowables” in
chemistry; man-made or natural disasters;
• Potential: SIMAD; asteroid strike; shift of
system of values; worldwide famine; UN
system collapse; energy revolution; satellites
system collapse; faster-than-light travel;
hackers take over online banking and/or
information dissemination; immortality;
revolution of robots; extraterrestrial contact;
etc.
• www.iknowfutures.com
33. Monitoring Wild Cards
• If monitoring is possible:
• Identifying areas of vulnerability
• Discipline the wild card
• Increase resilience
• Unconventional methods:
• Intuition
• Systems thinking
• Creativity training
• New theories and techniques
• Reference Impact Grid (RIG)
34. Energy Price
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40. Prediction Markets
• Prediction markets are competitive betting games designed to tap
collective intelligence to predict the future.
Lumenogic http://www.newsfutures.com/
• Participants rewarded function of accuracy (precision and timeline)
• Help:
• improve forecasting
• gain customer insights
• create idea markets
• evaluate uncertainty about expectations
• focus attention to some weak signals or wild cards
• Predictive power increased by:
• cognitive diversity
• informed contrarian opinions (non-informed ~ loss)
• Increased cognitive performance
41. Accuracy of Market Prediction
More accurate than other common forms of predictions such as
polling, surveys, and expert opinions
42. Examples and References
• Lumenogic http://www.newsfutures.com/
• Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for
Public and Private Decision Making,
by Michael Abramowicz
• The Foresight Exchange Prediction Market
http://www.ideosphere.com/ Top 10 Claims:
• Cold Fusion
• US President Visits Cuba
• Collapse of US Govt. by 2025
• US non-Christian President by 2016
• Humanly mobile robot by 2036
• Operational fusion reactor
43. Assignments for Next Class
• Read about State of the Future Index (SOFI)
• SOFI and Interactive SOFI (FRM, Chapters 34 and 38)
• SOFI in the 2012 State of the Future (2012 SOF, Chapter
2)
• Az-SOFI done in 2011
• Review Status of the RTDs
• Status of RTDs set up
• List of variables and historic data for the Az-SOFI 2013
• Discussion on the peace preconditions
• List of experts to be invited to participate
• Discuss Status of Individual Projects