The document discusses an early warning system for avian influenza (H5N1) using Dempster-Shafer theory and web mapping, aimed at reducing the risks faced by individuals in Indonesia, which has the highest number of avian influenza deaths. It outlines the system's architecture, advantages of Dempster-Shafer theory, and the role of web mapping in visualizing data. The application aims to identify symptoms of avian influenza and provide timely information for effective response and risk management.

1. INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR
INDONESIAN STUDENTS IN ASEAN
" Green Technology, Social Work and Public
Health for Development of Indonesia"
Bangkok, Thailand
28 - 29 Oktober 2011
Avian Influenza (H5N1) Warning System using
Dempster-Shafer Theory and Web Mapping
Andino Maseleno
andinomaseleno@yahoo.com
DEPARTMENT OF COMPUTER SCIENCE
FACULTY OF SCIENCE
UNIVERSITI BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

2. AGENDA
 INTRODUCTION
 FLOWCHART
 DEMPSTER-SHAFER
 WEB MAPPING
 IDENTIFICATION
 ARCHITECTURE
 CONCLUSION

3. INTRODUCTION
 World Health Organization (WHO): In the 2011 from 15
countries, Indonesia has the largest number death
because Avian Influenza which 146 deaths.
 Early warning is the provision of timely and effective
information, through identified institutions, that allows
individuals exposed to a hazard to take action to avoid or
reduce their risk and prepare for effective response.
 Dempster-Shafer theory to combine beliefs in certain
hypotheses under conditions of uncertainty and
ignorance, and allows quantitative measurement of the
belief and plausibility in our identification result.
 Web Mapping for displaying maps on a screen to visualize
the result of identification process.

4. FLOWCHART
Flowchart of Avian Influenza (H5N1) Warning System
Start
Location
Yes Input
Symptoms m1 (B) m2 (C)
No
m (A) = 1
Location and Disease
End

5. DEMPSTER-SHAFER
The advantages of the Dempster-Shafer theory:
 It has the ability to model information in a flexible way
without requiring a probability to be assigned to each
element in a set.
 It provides a convenient and simple mechanism
(Dempster’s combination rule) for combining two or more
pieces of evidence under certain conditions.
 It can model ignorance explicitly.

6. WEB MAPPING
Web mapping is the process of
designing, implementing, generating and delivering
maps on the World Wide Web.
The web mapping server is the engine behind the
maps. The mapping server or web mapping program
needs to be configured to communicate between
the web server and assemble data layers into an
appropriate image.

7. IDENTIFICATION
Avian Influenza (H5N1) Symptoms:
1. Depression
2. Combs, wattle, bluish face region
3. Swollen face region
4. Narrowness of eyes
5. Balance disorders

8. IDENTIFICATION
Symptom 1
Depression is a symptom of Avian Influenza
(AI), Newcastle Disease (ND), Fowl Cholera
(FC), Infectious Bronchitis respiratory form
(IBRespi), Infectious Bronchitis reproduction form
(IBRepro), and Swollen Head Syndrome (SHS).
The measures of uncertainty, taken collectively are
known in Dempster Shafer Theory terminology as a
``basic probability assignment'' (bpa ).
m1{AI, ND, FC, IBRespi, IBRepro, SHS} = 0.7
m1{Θ} = 1 - 0.7 = 0.3

9. IDENTIFICATION
Symptom 2
 Combs, wattle, bluish face region are symptoms of Avian
Influenza with a bpa of 0.9, so that:
m2{AI} = 0.9
m2 {Θ} = 1 – 0.9 = 0.1
 calculate the new bpa value

10. IDENTIFICATION
Symptom 3
 Swollen face region is a symptom of Avian
Influenza, Newcastle Disease, Fowl Cholera with a bpa of
0.83, so that
m4 {AI, ND, FC} = 0.83
m4 (Θ) = 1 – 0.83= 0.17
 calculate the new bpa value

11. IDENTIFICATION
Symptom 4
 Narrowness of eyes is a symptom of Swollen Head Syndrome with a
bpa of 0.9, so that:
m6 (SHS) = 0.9
m6 (Θ) = 1 – 0.9 = 0.1
 Calculate the new bpa value

12. IDENTIFICATION
Symptom 5
 Balance disorders are symptoms of Newcastle Diseases and Swollen
Head Syndrome with a bpa of 0.6, so that:
m8 {ND,SHS} = 0.6
m8 {Θ} = 1 - 0.6 = 0.4
 Calculate the new bpa value

13. ARCHITECTURE
Architecture of Avian Influenza (H5N1) Warning System
Dempster-Shafer
Map Database Map Dempster-Shafer Database
Map Dempster-
Components Shafer Model
Spatial Knowledge
Database Base
Web Server
Data Preparation, File Management, Application Execution
Web Browser
Menu, Hyperlinks, Map Display, Query Spasial, Diseases
Identification, Location Identification

14. IMPLEMENTATION
Selecting Region and Symptoms

15. IMPLEMENTATION
Results

16. CONCLUSION
 Identification of avian influenza can be performed using
Dempster Shafer Theory and Web Mapping.
 Application is built to display the map of the region by
the villages, districts, and regencies or municipalities.
 Web Mapping and Dempster-Shafer theory can be built
as an early warning system of avian influenza.
 Dempster-Shafer theory to combine beliefs in certain
hypotheses under conditions of uncertainty and
ignorance, and allows quantitative measurement of the
belief and plausibility in identification result.
 Web Mapping is also used for displaying maps on a
screen to visualize the result of the identification process.

17. Thank You