Inflation continues on the rise in Canada - April 2017

This presentation looks at inflation including areas like housing costs or wage growth.

Economy & Finance

Inflation
continues on the
rise in Canada –
April 2017
Paul Young CPA, CGA
April 25, 2017

Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Financial Solutions
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

Consumer Price Index
▪ Source – BMO Economics
• April is seeing higher
gas prices
• Consumers price wars
• Food prices have been
increasing

Inflation vs Housing Prices
March 2017
Annualized
Inflation rate
1.6%
March 2017
Housing Price
8.2%

Inflation vs Wages
March 2017
Annualized
Inflation rate
1.6%
March 2017
Wages
1.1%
“Worst wage growth since 1998”
Huffington Post – April 8, 2017

Guarantee Income
▪ Premier Kathleen Wynne announced Monday a plan to study basic
income in Ontario, in a three-year pilot project based in Hamilton,
Lindsay and Thunder Bay.
▪ The province will explore the effectiveness of providing a basic
income — no matter what — to people who are currently living on low
incomes, "whether they are working or not," Wynne said.
▪ Wynne said the pilot will provide the basic income to 4,000
households chosen from applicants invited "randomly" by the province
in the coming weeks.
CBC News – April 24, 2017
• You cannot tax people to being rich
• Ontario has energy poverty
• Job market is facing pressure due to bad policies
• Hydro rates
• Carbon Tax
• Slow economic growth (3.4% globally and 2.0% Canada

Employment Market
Ranstad – April 18, 2017

Middle Class / Canada - Realities
▪ Middle class is not in decline
▪ Women income rise while Men income has fallen
▪ People know they are the middle class
▪ Easy to achieve middle class, but tough to save due to energy poverty, high housing
costs, taxation, etc
▪ Wages have risen, but have not kept pace with inflation. There is more job churning
today then any other time in history when it comes to the job market.
Globe and Mail

Government
▪ It is not one government policy that impacts inflation, but many
▪ Inflation is growing, but is no where near hyperinflation
▪ Impact of new taxation and/or hydro rates will continue put pressure on the inflation
rates across Canada
▪ Commodity prices continue to struggle and in many cases are 25-30% off their
peaks in 2007.

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Working from home is a long-run growth opportunity. Many such workers bring their jobs with them or start their own business in part because it is harder to find a similar job locally. One key need is good, reliable broadband. Overall Oregon does better than much of the country in terms of working from home and broadband access, however gaps exist. Furthermore there are a lot of inequities regarding access to technology. Broadband is important for social, economic, and educational needs.

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Canada’s economy has grown about 2% for the past 16+ years. The Liberals came to office and said they will increase GDP growth as the previous government did little in terms of growing the economy. Canada’s economy for the next decade or so will be on pace for 2% which is the same level from 2000-2015. Liberals will add $100B in new debt and have the same growth as the previous government of 2%.

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This presentation is one look at Ontario minimum wage changes. Job losses being forecasts are always dependent on assumptions. The job losses that may result in minimum wage changes range from 50,000 to 185,000. Canada’s economy is leaving more behind as the Federal Liberals have failed on many economic policies like the following goods to market (pipelines have not been built) or regulatory approval process drags out decisions (East-West cancelled, mines are not being developed, etc.) or Inability to sign new trade deal and/or re-negotiate existing agreements Canada’s inflation rate grew by nearly 50% in November due to higher energy costs. These same energy costs will be hit with carbon taxation by all provinces starting January 2018

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