Dr Michael Jackson, Shaping Tomorrow Third Asia-Pacific Futurist Network April 20/21 2017

1. Artificially Intelligent Futures
in Asia
Dr Michael Jackson, Shaping Tomorrow
Third Asia-Pacific Futurist Network
April 20/21 2017

2. Research method
 Automated horizon scan using Artificial
Intelligence from Shaping Tomorrow’s
system
 AI extraction of AI forecasts from articles,
reports and PowerPoint sources. Extracted
and analyzed by our robot from verbatim
forecasts taken daily from articles, reports
and social media using embedded AI and
text analytics
 Export of Forecasts to evidence spreadsheet
 Visualize
 Theme identification
 Construction of the presentation in drivers
and themes format from eyeballing the
Export and selecting relevant verbatim
Forecasts to this presentation
 Twitter style format rather than dense
reporting
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3. Search results
STEP 2 Produce search results and extract evidence and forecasts for the following slides
1000 Forecasts reviewed for this exercise
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4. Visualize
Shaping Tomorrow
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5. Identified Themes
Sensors | Robots | Software | Vehicles| Smart cities | Smart homes | Work |
Jobs| Health| Manufacturing and Logistics | Education | Economy |Market |
Retail | Science | Asia | Alternative futures
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6. What’s Next in Artificial Intelligence?
 The next four years will be characterized by rapid developments in the
fields of artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, virtual and
augmented reality, connected homes, and smart cities and many other
fields.
The key takeaway:
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7. Capabilities
 By 2020, 85% of customer interactions
will be managed without a human.
 Artificial intelligence will overtake human
beings not just in terms of knowledge, but
in terms of intelligence.
 Artificial intelligence will reach human
levels by around 2029 (The Singularity by
2045?)
 Within the next ten years today's
supercomputer like Watson will shrink to
the size of a sugar cube.
 By 2019, startups will overtake Amazon,
Google, IBM and Microsoft in driving the
AI economy with disruptive business
solutions.
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8. Sensors
 There will be an estimated six billion connected devices actively requesting support from
artificial intelligence platforms by 2018.
 By 2019, over 110 million consumer devices with embedded intelligent assistants will be
installed in U.S. households.
 Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) app development programs will begin to outgrow /
outpace consumer IoT app development programs within the next three years.
 Spending on IoT endpoints and services is predicted to reach nearly $2 trillion.
 By 2020 annual revenues could exceed$ 470B for the IoT vendors selling the hardware,
software and comprehensive solutions.
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9. Robots
 The impact of robotics and artificial intelligence in the
next 20 years will be a much more concentrated version
of the steady, incremental displacement that was
common throughout the 20th century.
 Supersmart robots will outnumber humans and more
than a trillion objects will be connected to the internet
within three decades.
 By 2025, advanced robotics could have a worldwide
economic impact in the range of US$1.7 trillion to 4.5
trillion annually.
 Robotic pollinators could be trained to learn pollination
paths using global positioning systems and artificial
intelligence.
 Precision agriculture will help with the need to feed 9
billion people by 2050.
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10. Software
 Millions of customer service
representatives around the world will lose
their jobs. (Chatbots/Swiping)
 Chatbots will become even more
prevalent with the adoption of
technologies such as Siri, Google
Assistant and Alexa and ST’s Athena
 2017 will be the year computers and
humans start talking to each other.
 In 2017, cognitive chatbots will set the
new golden standard in high quality
customer service for retailers.
 The global Intelligent Virtual Assistant
market is predicted to reach £9.64 billion
($12.28 billion) by 2024.
 AI types of programs will proactively seek
support services by 2018 and that 40
percent of mobile interactions will depend
on smart agents by 2020.
 Artificial intelligence will be key in keeping
hate speech and graphic content off
Facebook.
 In the next few years, integrated
technology will have a big impact on
commercial kitchen design.
 Machine learning in cybersecurity will
boost big data, intelligence, and analytics
spending to $96 billion by 2021.
Shaping Tomorrow’s Athena. A cognitive, empathetic, by-your-side
teaching companion, virtual coach, digital consultant, and site guide
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11. Vehicles
 There will be 380m connected cars by
2021.
 Navigation, cameras, radar and more will
use AI to understand the world around
them.
 AI will displace people in driving-focused
positions such as truck drivers, delivery
drivers and taxi drivers.
 Cars are becoming increasingly intelligent
and by 2018 one in five cars on the road
will be self-aware and able to discern and
share information on their mechanical
health, global position and status of their
surroundings.
 Ford Motor Company will be investing $1
billion into the artificial intelligence firm
Argo AI over the next 5 years.
 Rise of the empathetic vehicle
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12. Smart cities
 Leading smart cities around the world will
employ intelligent RSUs to help smooth
traffic flow and increase safety.
 The rise of smart cities will lead to more
intelligent routing, decreased traffic, and
easier delivery processes.
 IoT deployments will create $550 billion in
economic value for cities worldwide in
2019.
 Buildings will talk to each other.
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13. Smart homes
 69% of homes will be installed with a
connected device of some kind by 2019.
 Ford will let drivers access their home
Alexa devices from the road.
 One of the areas in focus is home safety
and security where Panasonic's security
cameras and sensors to detect
movement, glass breakage, door and
window opening will be coupled with
Watson's cognitive computing
capabilities.
 By 2022 there could be nearly 500 smart
devices that can be connected to a smart
home (furniture, fridges, food)
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14. Work
 By 2020 50% of all business analytics
software will incorporate prescriptive
analytics built on cognitive computing
technology.
 In 2017, modern BI will become the top
priority for global enterprises, early-stage
startups, and everything in between.
 Most AI investment in 2017 will be
targeted towards e-commerce.
 By 2018, 20% of all business content will
be authored by machines and 5% of all
economic transactions will involve
autonomous software agents.
 By 2018, 35% of line-of-business
managers will demand intelligent
enterprise applications to improve
business process and resource utilization.
 Virtual home assistants like Echo and
Alexa will enter the workplace, further
personalizing interactions and automating
meetings.
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15. Jobs
 Many commentators see a global
depression coming because soon robots will
eliminate millions of jobs.
 Artificial intelligence will cause the loss of
7.1 million jobs across 15 leading
economies over the next five years.
 The rise of robots and AI will see a net loss
of 5.1 million jobs over five years in 15 of the
world's leading economies.
 Intelligent agents and related robots will only
have eliminated 6% of jobs by 2021.
 There will be one million more IT jobs than
computer science students in the U.S. by
2020.
 Deloitte predicts automation will contribute to
the need for far fewer traditional lawyers and
legal sector jobs.
 AI will encourage some universities to
employ fewer faculty and graduate students.
 90% of journalism will be computerized by
2030.
 83 percent of jobs that pay less than $20 an
hour are under threat from automation.
 Data scientists in the US can expect a six-
figure starting salary.
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16. Health
 Machine learning could soon be
indispensable to healthcare.
 AI will know you're sick before you do
 Researchers have developed a deep
learning algorithm that can predict autism
in babies with a relatively high 81 percent
accuracy and 88 percent sensitivity.
 Robots for cognitive eldercare that will
track and monitor vital activities and
general health status in the day-to-day life
of seniors much like an in-home human
caregiver would.
 IBM will be creating a prototype of a
machine learning system that can help
mental health professionals diagnose
patients just from the content of their
speech.
 Artificial intelligence systems will generate
$6.7 billion in global revenue from
healthcare by 2021.
 Wider availability of intelligent health
devices will save the US health system an
estimated $50 billion by 2018.
 Healthcare IT will see tremendous growth
at a CAGR of 16.1 percent until 2025.
 New business models such as device-as-
a-service (DaaS) and health-as-a-service
will emerge.
 Advances in cognitive computing
capabilities will bring pharmacy data,
healthcare data and even non-traditional
data together to predict individual patient
health outcomes.
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17. Manufacturing and logistics
 Robotic production lines like Tesla's and
Amazon’s will continue to eat away at
manufacturing jobs.
 Researchers at the Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have
built and trained machine learning
algorithms to predict defect behavior in
certain intermetallic compounds with high
accuracy.
 Twizzlers and eventually other Hershey's
candies are going to get smaller now that
Hershey's is adding IoT sensors to its
candy-making manufacturing facilities to
make the process more efficient through
machine learning.
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18. Education
 2017 will see the proliferation of learning mechanisms.
 Just-in-time education, wherever you are!
 Gartner research predicts algorithms will positively alter the behavior of more than
one billion global workers by 2020.
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19. Economy
 The rapid rise of disruptive
technologies like artificial
intelligence, automation, and big data
could save the global economy
between $900bn to $1.6tr by 2035.
 The market for Artificial Intelligence-
based systems will grow to $70bn by
2020.
 Corporate spending on AI technology
will surge to $47 billion in 2020.
 Machines will not be able to
automatically file taxes with the IRS
for a few years.
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20. Market
 The global AI market will grow at an
astounding rate of 62.9 percent from 2016
to 2022 when it will reach $16.06 billion.
 Forrester predicts enterprise investments
in AI will increase 300% in 2017.
 AI will revolutionize marketing by 2020.
 Expect to see a lot more marketers using
content automation in 2017.
 The global market in content analytics,
discovery and cognitive systems software
will more than double from $4.5 billion in
2014 to $9.2 billion in 2019.5 By 2020.
 There's a great likelihood that by 2022
artificial intelligence will be able to create
brand identities and experiences.
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21. Retail
 Over the next five years a growing
number of retailers will buy into AI as it
becomes more affordable.
 In 2017, physical and digital retail will
merge entirely to create one consistent
shopping experience.
 H & R Block's customers will soon be able
to get tax advice from IBM's artificial
intelligence-powered seer Watson.
 KPMG has predicted the UK could see an
AI-based insurer within the next decade.
 Automated retail in Amazon Go or the
connected home appliances of Echo Alex
are just the tip of the way new things
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22. Science
 Applying machine learning to condensed
matter and statistical physics could open
entirely new opportunities for research
and real-world application.
 Creating AI agents that co-operate with
others could lead to systems that can
develop policies and real-world
applications.
 A breakthrough from MIT researchers
could see AI used to more quickly and
effectively design new drug compounds
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23. Asia
 China is setting up fully automated robotic
factories in the hope that becoming more
price competitive will let it continue to be
the manufacturing capital of the world.
 AI will accelerate expected growth in
Japan from 0.8 percent to 2.7 percent in
2035.
 By 2020, India will become a country with
the largest developer population in the
world.
 Increasing investments to develop
infrastructural facilities throughout Asia
Pacific (especially in nations such as
China, Japan, and India) is expected to
nurture exponential growth opportunities
for the intelligent transportation system
market during the forecast period.
 In China, fried chicken franchise KFC
recently unveiled its first "smart
restaurant" that uses facial recognition to
predict what meal customers are likely to
want.
 Companies working on the development
of energy intelligence solutions are
expected to gain lucrative growth
prospects in Asia Pacific.
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24. Alternative futures
 At some point in the next century artificial
intelligence will give rise to the fifth
revolution.
 Considering the opportunities of
advanced machine learning using
Twitter's vast data set could lead to
possibilities for more interactive content
on the platform.
 The future of the internet is going to be
under threat once the world's militaries
get good at artificial intelligence.
 In the next few years, things like manual
hand-drawn measurements will hopefully
be replaced by AI.
 Brain emulation based AI will become
feasible and then cheap enough to
completely change and take over the
world economy.
 The population of intelligent connected
devices will have competing
consequences as Smart Cities become a
reality.
 The possibility of using android and AI
technology for remote contact with a
distant lover is on the way.
 Quantum computers make current AI
efforts look like toys!
 Gates, Hawkin et al warn of the dangers
of AI running amok!
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25. Ethics
Expect to see an increasing number of corporate AI ethics statements
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26. How to use these slides
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Use the spreadsheet and/or the slides to collaboratively determine your Options on ST
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27. Then rank your Options collaboratively27
Then click the Option titles to develop robust strategies for agreed Options
From a standing start a team can develop their agreed options in less than 4 hours!
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28. Q. How long did this presentation take to produce?
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29. A. 80 minutes from scratch!
30 to 40 times faster than manual methods!
With publishing 3 hours (sourcing the pictures took longer than
finding the future!)
IMAGINE WHAT COULD BE DONE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS!
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30. Thanks for listening
Questions?
Mike.Jackson@shapingtomorrow.com
for copies of the presentation or to request a presentation on
your interest topic
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