The document summarizes a thesis that aimed to analyze monthly money supply data (M1, M2, M3) in Qatar from 1982 to 2006 using ARIMA models to forecast supply from 2007 to 2010. The thesis found the time series was non-stationary and trended due to inflation after 2003, requiring first differencing to make it stationary. It forecasted future M1 supply using an ARIMA(1,1,1) model, M2 using ARIMA(3,1,3), and M3 using ARIMA(1,1,0).
to indicate it is a summary and not the full text.
3. The summary should cover the main topics and key details discussed in the document while removing unnecessary information to remain under 3 sentences.
This is a series of Capacity Building documents that was prepared by the Sudanese Youth Leadership Development Program.
هذه مجموعة من المقالات في مجالات تدريبية متعددة مناسبة للجمعيات الطوعية تم تطويرها بين عامي 2003-2008 للبرنامج السوداني لإعداد القيادات الشبابية
This is a series of Capacity Building documents that was prepared by the Sudanese Youth Leadership Development Program.
هذه مجموعة من المقالات في مجالات تدريبية متعددة مناسبة للجمعيات الطوعية تم تطويرها بين عامي 2003-2008 للبرنامج السوداني لإعداد القيادات الشبابية
موقع ملزمتي - قصة عبد الرحمن بن عوف خامسة إبتدائي الترم الثانيملزمتي
The document discusses improving work efficiency through better time management. It suggests starting each day by planning tasks and priorities to stay focused on the most important work. Team meetings should be used to coordinate efforts, provide updates, and resolve any issues in a timely manner to maximize productivity.
This document provides a 3 sentence summary:
The text discusses several documents and their contents, including documents about meetings, reports on projects and their status, and notes from discussions. Dates ranging from 2023 to 2025 are mentioned for some of the documents. The documents are summarized briefly and their main topics and conclusions are outlined concisely.
1. Ahmed sent an encrypted message to the intelligence team about a planned terrorist attack.
2. The intelligence team worked to decrypt the message to gather details about the attack.
3. They were able to determine that the attack would target a public gathering using explosives but did not yet have the location or timing of the attack.
The document discusses a research paper that analyzes a dataset containing information about 456 patients. The research aims to identify factors that predict whether a patient will be readmitted to the hospital within 30 days of discharge. Some key findings from the research include:
1. Higher numbers of emergency room visits in the past six months and greater illness severity upon admission increased the likelihood of readmission.
2. Patients who were discharged on Friday had a higher readmission rate than those discharged earlier in the week.
3. Certain comorbidities such as diabetes and congestive heart failure also increased the risk of readmission.
to indicate it is a summary and not the full text.
3. The summary should cover the main topics and key details discussed in the document while removing unnecessary information to remain under 3 sentences.
This is a series of Capacity Building documents that was prepared by the Sudanese Youth Leadership Development Program.
هذه مجموعة من المقالات في مجالات تدريبية متعددة مناسبة للجمعيات الطوعية تم تطويرها بين عامي 2003-2008 للبرنامج السوداني لإعداد القيادات الشبابية
This is a series of Capacity Building documents that was prepared by the Sudanese Youth Leadership Development Program.
هذه مجموعة من المقالات في مجالات تدريبية متعددة مناسبة للجمعيات الطوعية تم تطويرها بين عامي 2003-2008 للبرنامج السوداني لإعداد القيادات الشبابية
موقع ملزمتي - قصة عبد الرحمن بن عوف خامسة إبتدائي الترم الثانيملزمتي
The document discusses improving work efficiency through better time management. It suggests starting each day by planning tasks and priorities to stay focused on the most important work. Team meetings should be used to coordinate efforts, provide updates, and resolve any issues in a timely manner to maximize productivity.
This document provides a 3 sentence summary:
The text discusses several documents and their contents, including documents about meetings, reports on projects and their status, and notes from discussions. Dates ranging from 2023 to 2025 are mentioned for some of the documents. The documents are summarized briefly and their main topics and conclusions are outlined concisely.
1. Ahmed sent an encrypted message to the intelligence team about a planned terrorist attack.
2. The intelligence team worked to decrypt the message to gather details about the attack.
3. They were able to determine that the attack would target a public gathering using explosives but did not yet have the location or timing of the attack.
The document discusses a research paper that analyzes a dataset containing information about 456 patients. The research aims to identify factors that predict whether a patient will be readmitted to the hospital within 30 days of discharge. Some key findings from the research include:
1. Higher numbers of emergency room visits in the past six months and greater illness severity upon admission increased the likelihood of readmission.
2. Patients who were discharged on Friday had a higher readmission rate than those discharged earlier in the week.
3. Certain comorbidities such as diabetes and congestive heart failure also increased the risk of readmission.
The three sentence summary is:
The article discusses the literary heritage of the Great Patriotic War of 1941-1945 through an analysis of war-time poetry written by soldiers on the front lines. It focuses on the work of Stepan Astakhov, a soldier in the Red Army who wrote poetry during his service in World War II to express his patriotism and the hardships of war. The summary highlights how Astakhov's poems provide insight into the experiences and mindsets of Soviet soldiers during the Great Patriotic War.
The document discusses a meeting summary in three points:
1. The key topics discussed at the meeting included project planning, budget issues, and next steps.
2. Concerns were raised about delays and budget overruns, but agreement was reached on solutions to address these issues.
3. Action items from the meeting involve revising the project schedule and budget plan, and having weekly check-ins to ensure the project stays on track.
The document discusses a meeting between two individuals. The main points discussed at the meeting include:
1. An overview of a project or initiative they are working on together. Details about timelines, deliverables, and next steps are mentioned.
2. Challenges or issues that have come up with the work. They discuss ways to address these challenges and get the project back on track.
3. Plans for following up on action items and keeping the work moving forward. They agree to continue communicating and collaborating to achieve their goals.
Electric Vehicles and Demand Response Opportunty in California, 2010-2030Brian Moss
Final presentation from my Master's Project. Our team spent 18 months researching and analyzing the how much additional revenue EV infrastructure firms such as Better Place could earn from using the EV batteries to help stabilize the electric grid in California.
Full report can be found at: http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/83544
The document discusses an engineering workshop focused on manufacturing solutions and processes, covering topics such as logistics, quality control, plant engineering, materials selection, and equipment maintenance. The workshop aims to help participants improve manufacturing operations through strategies for optimizing processes, reducing costs, and ensuring high product quality and reliability. Attendees will learn best practices for issues like production planning, equipment modernization, and implementing quality management systems.
Virtues some surahs of the noble qura'n - imaam al-albaaneeShahedur
The document discusses a meeting between two parties. It begins by welcoming everyone and providing an overview of the agenda. The main topics to be covered are then listed, including a project status update, a discussion of recent issues that were encountered, and plans for next steps. To proceed with the meeting, approval is requested from all attendees.
1. This document is a notification regarding a legal case filed on 27/12/1392.
2. It lists 10 items regarding details of the plaintiff, defendant, claims, court branch, and next court date.
3. The signature and seal at the end of the document confirms this is an official legal notification.
The document is a letter from an organization called "Voice of Preaching the Gospel" located in Colorado Springs, USA. It is informing the recipient about a new Arabic translation of the Gospel of Luke that has been done by Van Dycke. The letter provides brief details about the translation, noting that it aims to be an accurate yet easy to read version for Arabic speakers. It encourages the recipient to consider ordering copies of the new Gospel of Luke translation to help in their gospel outreach efforts. The summary is in 3 sentences as requested.
1) The document outlines a multi-step process involving several sections labeled with letters and numbers.
2) Each section contains groups of numbers, symbols, and letters that are compared or transformed in some way.
3) The overall structure repeats with each new lettered section building upon the outcomes of the previous sections.
Evolution towards the Internet of EverythingTim Winchcomb
The communications landscape has undergone radical change over recent decades – from analogue to digital and an explosion of short-range technologies, expanding the possibilities for personal and ubiquitous communication. This presentation introduces some of the highlights of this journey, based on pioneering innovation, and then looks forward to the latest emerging standards for ‘direct-to-cloud’ connectivity that will enable the true ‘Internet of Everything’.
الضبط بالتعقيد للمتشابه اللفاظي في القرآن المجيدRivado
The document discusses a meeting that was held. It provides details about the agenda items that were covered including a report on recent activities, a financial overview, and a discussion on future plans and projects. Key decisions and action items from the meeting are summarized.
1. The document discusses a new project to build affordable housing for low-income families.
2. It details the project plan to construct 100 units across three buildings, with amenities like a community center and playground.
3. The project aims to provide quality housing and a safe environment for families while staying within budget.
بوكلت الدراسات الإجتماعية للصف الرابع الابتدائى للترم الثانى أمنية وجدى
The document summarizes the key points of a meeting in 3 sentences:
The meeting discussed proposals to restructure the department and reduce costs. Concerns were raised about the impact on employee morale and workload. A final decision on the restructuring proposals will be made next month after further review.
The document discusses the history and interpretation of innovation, describing innovation as a process through which new ideas are formed and refined until accepted and adopted into a social system. Key factors for innovation include communication channels that allow ideas to spread over time among members of a social system, as well as the ability to adapt strategically to challenges. The summary highlights the importance of understanding audiences and key players in the innovation process.
بهینه سازی استفاده از آنزیمهای پروتئاز...Haleh Hadaegh
This document summarizes the results of an experiment investigating the effects of different concentrations of Aspergillus oryzae protease on the properties of bread. Bread samples were produced using 0%, 0.05%, 0.1%, and 0.15% concentrations of the protease and were analyzed for whiteness index, texture properties via a three-point bending test, and viscoelastic properties via frequency sweep testing. The whiteness index and elastic modulus increased with higher protease concentrations while hardness decreased, indicating the protease improved bread quality.
Artikel door Ferenc Postma, Die Eintragungen aus den Niederlanden im Stammbuch Bányai, over de Nederlandse inscripties in het Album Amicorum van de Hongaar Stephanus Bányai. 1740-1743
1. The document discusses a new method for summarizing documents in 3 sentences or less.
2. It provides high-level and essential information from the original text in a concise manner while maintaining coherence.
3. The method effectively captures the key details and meaning of the source document in a summarized form.
1. The document discusses the genealogy and family history of several individuals, providing their names and relationships.
2. Multiple generations are described, with the names and roles of ancestors and descendants listed.
3. The summary traces the family lineages and relationships between various individuals across generations.
1. The document discusses the history and development of a small village located near a forested area.
2. Over time, the village grew as more families moved to the fertile lands and built homes and farms.
3. The village is now a modest town with several hundred residents, and the surrounding forest still provides resources and beauty to the community.
Kurdistan Regional Government Iraq Ministry of Electricity generates electricity primarily from fossil fuels such as natural gas. Renewable energy sources such as hydro, solar, wind, and geothermal currently account for a smaller portion of electricity generation but their use is growing. Geothermal energy harnesses heat from within the earth through technologies such as hydrothermal, geopressure, and hot dry rock systems to generate electricity without direct emissions. Geothermal resources in the Kurdistan region show potential for development to increase renewable energy supply.
The three sentence summary is:
The article discusses the literary heritage of the Great Patriotic War of 1941-1945 through an analysis of war-time poetry written by soldiers on the front lines. It focuses on the work of Stepan Astakhov, a soldier in the Red Army who wrote poetry during his service in World War II to express his patriotism and the hardships of war. The summary highlights how Astakhov's poems provide insight into the experiences and mindsets of Soviet soldiers during the Great Patriotic War.
The document discusses a meeting summary in three points:
1. The key topics discussed at the meeting included project planning, budget issues, and next steps.
2. Concerns were raised about delays and budget overruns, but agreement was reached on solutions to address these issues.
3. Action items from the meeting involve revising the project schedule and budget plan, and having weekly check-ins to ensure the project stays on track.
The document discusses a meeting between two individuals. The main points discussed at the meeting include:
1. An overview of a project or initiative they are working on together. Details about timelines, deliverables, and next steps are mentioned.
2. Challenges or issues that have come up with the work. They discuss ways to address these challenges and get the project back on track.
3. Plans for following up on action items and keeping the work moving forward. They agree to continue communicating and collaborating to achieve their goals.
Electric Vehicles and Demand Response Opportunty in California, 2010-2030Brian Moss
Final presentation from my Master's Project. Our team spent 18 months researching and analyzing the how much additional revenue EV infrastructure firms such as Better Place could earn from using the EV batteries to help stabilize the electric grid in California.
Full report can be found at: http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/83544
The document discusses an engineering workshop focused on manufacturing solutions and processes, covering topics such as logistics, quality control, plant engineering, materials selection, and equipment maintenance. The workshop aims to help participants improve manufacturing operations through strategies for optimizing processes, reducing costs, and ensuring high product quality and reliability. Attendees will learn best practices for issues like production planning, equipment modernization, and implementing quality management systems.
Virtues some surahs of the noble qura'n - imaam al-albaaneeShahedur
The document discusses a meeting between two parties. It begins by welcoming everyone and providing an overview of the agenda. The main topics to be covered are then listed, including a project status update, a discussion of recent issues that were encountered, and plans for next steps. To proceed with the meeting, approval is requested from all attendees.
1. This document is a notification regarding a legal case filed on 27/12/1392.
2. It lists 10 items regarding details of the plaintiff, defendant, claims, court branch, and next court date.
3. The signature and seal at the end of the document confirms this is an official legal notification.
The document is a letter from an organization called "Voice of Preaching the Gospel" located in Colorado Springs, USA. It is informing the recipient about a new Arabic translation of the Gospel of Luke that has been done by Van Dycke. The letter provides brief details about the translation, noting that it aims to be an accurate yet easy to read version for Arabic speakers. It encourages the recipient to consider ordering copies of the new Gospel of Luke translation to help in their gospel outreach efforts. The summary is in 3 sentences as requested.
1) The document outlines a multi-step process involving several sections labeled with letters and numbers.
2) Each section contains groups of numbers, symbols, and letters that are compared or transformed in some way.
3) The overall structure repeats with each new lettered section building upon the outcomes of the previous sections.
Evolution towards the Internet of EverythingTim Winchcomb
The communications landscape has undergone radical change over recent decades – from analogue to digital and an explosion of short-range technologies, expanding the possibilities for personal and ubiquitous communication. This presentation introduces some of the highlights of this journey, based on pioneering innovation, and then looks forward to the latest emerging standards for ‘direct-to-cloud’ connectivity that will enable the true ‘Internet of Everything’.
الضبط بالتعقيد للمتشابه اللفاظي في القرآن المجيدRivado
The document discusses a meeting that was held. It provides details about the agenda items that were covered including a report on recent activities, a financial overview, and a discussion on future plans and projects. Key decisions and action items from the meeting are summarized.
1. The document discusses a new project to build affordable housing for low-income families.
2. It details the project plan to construct 100 units across three buildings, with amenities like a community center and playground.
3. The project aims to provide quality housing and a safe environment for families while staying within budget.
بوكلت الدراسات الإجتماعية للصف الرابع الابتدائى للترم الثانى أمنية وجدى
The document summarizes the key points of a meeting in 3 sentences:
The meeting discussed proposals to restructure the department and reduce costs. Concerns were raised about the impact on employee morale and workload. A final decision on the restructuring proposals will be made next month after further review.
The document discusses the history and interpretation of innovation, describing innovation as a process through which new ideas are formed and refined until accepted and adopted into a social system. Key factors for innovation include communication channels that allow ideas to spread over time among members of a social system, as well as the ability to adapt strategically to challenges. The summary highlights the importance of understanding audiences and key players in the innovation process.
بهینه سازی استفاده از آنزیمهای پروتئاز...Haleh Hadaegh
This document summarizes the results of an experiment investigating the effects of different concentrations of Aspergillus oryzae protease on the properties of bread. Bread samples were produced using 0%, 0.05%, 0.1%, and 0.15% concentrations of the protease and were analyzed for whiteness index, texture properties via a three-point bending test, and viscoelastic properties via frequency sweep testing. The whiteness index and elastic modulus increased with higher protease concentrations while hardness decreased, indicating the protease improved bread quality.
Artikel door Ferenc Postma, Die Eintragungen aus den Niederlanden im Stammbuch Bányai, over de Nederlandse inscripties in het Album Amicorum van de Hongaar Stephanus Bányai. 1740-1743
1. The document discusses a new method for summarizing documents in 3 sentences or less.
2. It provides high-level and essential information from the original text in a concise manner while maintaining coherence.
3. The method effectively captures the key details and meaning of the source document in a summarized form.
1. The document discusses the genealogy and family history of several individuals, providing their names and relationships.
2. Multiple generations are described, with the names and roles of ancestors and descendants listed.
3. The summary traces the family lineages and relationships between various individuals across generations.
1. The document discusses the history and development of a small village located near a forested area.
2. Over time, the village grew as more families moved to the fertile lands and built homes and farms.
3. The village is now a modest town with several hundred residents, and the surrounding forest still provides resources and beauty to the community.
Kurdistan Regional Government Iraq Ministry of Electricity generates electricity primarily from fossil fuels such as natural gas. Renewable energy sources such as hydro, solar, wind, and geothermal currently account for a smaller portion of electricity generation but their use is growing. Geothermal energy harnesses heat from within the earth through technologies such as hydrothermal, geopressure, and hot dry rock systems to generate electricity without direct emissions. Geothermal resources in the Kurdistan region show potential for development to increase renewable energy supply.
Kurdistan Regional Government Iraq Ministry of Electricity generates electricity primarily from fossil fuels such as natural gas. Renewable energy sources such as hydro, solar, wind, and geothermal currently account for a smaller portion of electricity generation but their use is growing. Geothermal energy harnesses heat from within the earth through technologies such as hydrothermal, geopressure, and hot dry rock systems to generate electricity without directly burning fuels. Geothermal resources in the Kurdistan region show potential for development to increase renewable energy supply and reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
Capitulo 3.9 Gestion Tributaria Mipro ERPDeath User
The document outlines various concepts related to the management of inmates in prison, including concepts like retention, series, and authorization. It provides tables with information on retention periods for different inmate records in months or years. The concepts are aimed at establishing policies and procedures for the standardized management of inmate records.
The document discusses using X-rays to examine a patient's bones and joints. It describes how X-rays provide images of the inside of the body by detecting the rays that pass through skin and tissue. The summary also notes that while X-rays can reveal problems, excessive exposure should be avoided due to the small radiation dose involved.
The document summarizes the key points of a meeting in 3 sentences:
The meeting discussed proposals to restructure the department and reduce costs. Concerns were raised about the impact on employee morale and workload. A final decision on the restructuring proposals will be made next month after further review.
The document discusses the history and importance of agriculture. It states that agriculture began over 10,000 years ago when humans transitioned from hunter-gatherers to growing and domesticating plants and animals. This allowed the development of permanent settlements as food supplies became more reliable. Agriculture continues to be a vital part of the global economy, providing food and materials while supporting a large population. The document emphasizes that modern agriculture relies on new technologies, but its foundations remain in ancient practices of growing crops and raising livestock.
1. The document summarizes the key points from a study on the migration patterns of eight bird species.
2. It describes the species studied, their typical migration routes, and average distances traveled.
3. The summary concludes with some overall findings about differences in migration distances between species.
The document summarizes the main points of a discussion about dispersing medication to patients in rural areas. It notes that medication is currently distributed through pharmacies in urban areas, which makes it difficult for rural patients to access their prescriptions. Alternatives discussed include having rural clinics stock common medications, partnering with rural health centers to distribute medication, or delivering prescriptions directly to patients' homes. Concerns about regulatory issues and costs were also raised.
The document discusses a meeting that was held. It provides details about the agenda items that were covered, including a report on recent activities and a discussion on future plans. Key points from various presentations are summarized. The meeting concluded with next steps being identified to advance ongoing projects.
This document provides contact information for several dental clinics and community health centers located in Atlanta, Georgia. The listings include addresses, phone numbers, and websites for New Face Dentistry, Grady Health System, Georgia State University, Morehouse School of Medicine, and others. Locations are provided across the city of Atlanta and the contact details allow for making appointments.
The document discusses word formation and provides examples of suffixes to form nouns from verbs like "-ost'" and "-ie" as well as examples of common Russian city names ending in suffixes like "-burg" and "-grad." It also gives examples of business terminology in Russian using suffixes such as "-aktsioner" and "-broker."
This document lists the names of various songs or musical artists along with the duration of each song in minutes and seconds. There are a total of 30 songs listed ranging from pop, rock, and classical genres. The longest song listed is 4 minutes and 30 seconds while the shortest is only 1 minute.
The document discusses a meeting between two people. It mentions that they discussed constructing a building, issues related to costs, and regulations related to construction. It also notes that they planned to continue their discussion at a later time to address additional details and reach an agreement.
الجزء الثانى أسئلة تنفيذية مهندس محمد زكى إسماعيلMohamed Saeed
The document discusses a construction project to build a new structure measuring 16.5 meters by 39.6 meters. Details provided include the dimensions of the building, materials used, estimated costs, and an overview of the work completed so far. The summary recaps the essential details about scope, specifications, and progress of the construction project presented in the source material.
1. The document discusses integration and properties of integrals. It shows that the integral of the derivative of a function equals the function evaluated from negative infinity to positive infinity.
2. Several integral properties are demonstrated, including properties related to adding or subtracting integrals and integrating with respect to different variables.
3. The document also explores integrals of functions over all real numbers and shows some integrals equal zero while others do not, depending on the properties of the functions.
1. The study investigated the relationship between parenting styles and the amount of sports participation among 184 high school female students.
2. The results showed a significant correlation between physical activity levels and authoritarian and permissive parenting styles, but no correlation with authoritative and neglectful styles.
3. More support from parents is associated with higher physical activity levels in children according to the findings.
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial ReportsEasyReports
Well-crafted financial reports serve as vital tools for decision-making and transparency within an organization. By following the undermentioned tips, you can create standardized financial reports that effectively communicate your company's financial health and performance to stakeholders.
Abhay Bhutada Leads Poonawalla Fincorp To Record Low NPA And Unprecedented Gr...Vighnesh Shashtri
Under the leadership of Abhay Bhutada, Poonawalla Fincorp has achieved record-low Non-Performing Assets (NPA) and witnessed unprecedented growth. Bhutada's strategic vision and effective management have significantly enhanced the company's financial health, showcasing a robust performance in the financial sector. This achievement underscores the company's resilience and ability to thrive in a competitive market, setting a new benchmark for operational excellence in the industry.
Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby...Donc Test
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby...
ARIMA
1. ARIMA1
Using ARIMA Models in Forecasting Money Supply in Qatar
State
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#$ % & +#M3SH $ T O+$ <ARIMA(1,1,0)
Abstract
The thesis aimed to study and analyzed the monthly data of the money
supply in the narrow (M1), wide (M2) and widest (M3) accuracy for Qatar State
from the period January 1982 till December 2006. That was done because of
the most important role in stationary of money, then the economic stationary of
the developed and growing states. The student used ARIMA models in
forecasting for the coming four years (the period from January 2007 till
December 2010), and that what named as Box-Jenkins methodology. The
thesis attained that the monthly time series for money supply is non-stationary
and has a trend, which was because of the inflation of money which, happened
in the State after January 2003. And that what required the first differences to
change the sires to time series stationary, then the student gain of most
competent models for the forecasting to the future period.
The thesis forecasted for the future monthly data for money supply (M1)
using the model ARIMA (1,1,1), forecasting for the future monthly data for
money supply (M2) using the model ARIMA (3,1,3). Then the forecasting for the
future monthly data for money supply (M3) was using the model ARIMA (1,1,0).
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_ ($ g . K N^ c5 & - &' U & - 5 & - & & 7 g 5
5 - - S *h - = M 7 _ ($ E & ) B . K 2 N^, 8 L ;Mi
I>?@?jk@[l
) B g U O+$ 8F ' M !* H/ I L ;M _ ($ < 9 NO 2 J #$ F(,-
IX - % K 8 &' #$ ) B m h 6- ' : - n - L# g . K &' L ;M
, X J 9 o " <pV$7p-L ;M _ ($ - #$ _ ($ 8 W &# J &'V$F &
# #
F' 5 L ;M P q & = - 5 - #$ & 7 8 &; = #$ % 0'
6 ' <Wilton Friedman- 9 J #$ & 7 ) B, 8 &# N- &; K m $2 6 g ' Er, $ 8 9 J
& ' : ) " < 5 g ) B,-i>?RCj>R>Friedmanl
&a- &' #$ & F * X : ' #$ - L ;M # M . K &e< 6 . K 6 ' < 7O'-
QE2 $, 6 XU' E I6 F K 9 '- # S *h UJ * 4 &+ $ )Mo , )M & F
#$ 8 PVU7 #* F( s " JM 6 +Y ' &+ $ G s " JM <5 &+Y
& -3 # #$ % K &+; &' #$ ) : T , ) P ch $ , 3 2 $ &' #$
F T M 3 # 7 &' L ; 1 2#$ %- UJ < t F*M - T , 2 u 8 -i
Kent ,1961:472l
G H- I #$ # M V'V &L T ) U _ $ :; & - = & - #$ # M 3 # , 6/
$ # M P h # : ' ", G ' E - I V7 :; 1 L 2 7 . K 4#'L ;M < #
1 L v O 6 * # ! P c + J G H- I :#
' 1 W ) +N . K s " & - . K V7 , :# V7 G$+ &' #$ & w u-
F' 5 M- # :#i' J - M-[ Dx:; 'lLT )M ' , G$+ - '- I
,H/ I] . K N^ % ;h . K 9 o " T - I F' 5 " JM )M 4 Z
&' #$ ! . K ' , m $2 6 7
)!" *+,(
& FJ & O 2- V7 :; G$ 8K 9 L ) * + (,+ E2 < !, * 9 - &0. /
&$ * = 6 * 7 Z &W - I&N = ! 2 " :; & - #$ %- UJ < ' V, 9 " c-
ACC[B 6 $a < H/ I :# #$ L ;M < #$ . K X : UJ 9 ' . / / G H 4c '- I
! K X : < B 4 U'/ N^ ' #$ % K <. / #$ % K < 9 ' V 9 ": G , X+ ' - I
< 9 NO 8 G H Y- 1 L - 9 o " B 7 #$ . K X : Y g y +
&N = ! 2 " #$ % K 9 ' 9 - a . / g I #$ % Ki3 "M14 -M24 -5 -
M3l
-9 ' J < L ; T , 8 ! / -O' - ! K X : - #$ % K 8 9 U" - 8' + & F( ,
, E & o ; & F( ' E I! K X : &+ $ #$ % K % "T* & J < t F* . / - I #$ % K
:; & - $ - - X Y * ,-
- #$ FZ ` $ -FZ 8 2 Y- ) - & ] 5 :,- u 4 - 9 '
8' n :T,- & ; c- G H 7 . ; I& $ - &+ $ & c T & * ' 9 ' 4 I #$ -
&W I #$ % K < B O+$ & z 5 - ) 4 , 4` :; < 8' +F $ - 4
m $+ < & +$c5 &' #$ 9 W 5 9 ' . / g , W 9 '- I :; & - < :"$ ` :# - = M
. / 4 E2 X :, H/ :# #$ L ;M < #$ % K < 9 +7 9 ' . / ) - &' :#
3. T - n ($,9 ,- ` ", 6- & - !a K 9 ' . K 9 : #$ % K . K ; - : :
& - G , < T
-!" .( / 0
'0 + E2 1K ' SH * P $ c 8 G H- I&' Z & $ & 7 #$ % K & - , . /
SH * T O+$ . KARIMA-& U $ . 'Box-JenkinsQE &'O+$ 9 # g 6 -
3 ! " #$ % &' ( ) * + , < SH $M14 ! " #$ % K-M2% K-
4 -5 ! " #$M3# Z &N = ! 2 " #$ % K 6 2- I :# #$ L ;M <
E,{ 9 G , < E
) : 4 & F , E *M SH * T O+$ - & $ V , T -
&7ARIMA& $ V L ;M - o LJh O+$ & F & a ' & U $ , -Time
Serieso LJh r * + T , H/SPSS V10ro $ . K L #$ % K ) *
SH * T -ARIMA:; & - < #$ % & # ) $ ) O+$ . K L ,
1!" %2
'3 :$0 +86 2 " & a <#$ % KMoney Supply8 9 :; & - <i>?@Ab
ACCDlK ) Z I#i` ",lG , < T )M ` , . K 9 - vF *
n"$ 9 '- I& c 8 B - n"$ 8 :; & - ) W 9 ' . / | 5 &c ' E2- I& -
2 - ) $ 9 <g & c 8
- n"$ 8 + ) W 9 ' 6/F( #$ %- 9 ' . / g K n"$ ` ", 4 B
. / g & &' = M 4' ( . K &W F ] "*h 4 ,- 2 4 :; & - < +7
g 5 1 L - 4' ( - <5 g #$ %- UJ 9 '
34 % 56 7(
0J + K) * + . KData' E - I *- F M ! ; . K V7 :; G$ 2 ($'
:# L ; - #$ U 8K ) * + ($ & T & & FJ & O
8!" %90 (
0J + K0 + & o # M &#' : . Ki#, &#' : QE2-&K U +, - & # +: & . K
3o # 8b9 2 ( & o LJ/ ) *bQE 3' 8K - * Eo $K- I 2 ", 9 2 e 8K
SH * T ) * +ARIMA) c $ M . / Wl
O+$ ro $ &; ) + X J &+ $ SH $ ,-o , ) W ,- ) c $ S- T G H- &'
K L , ro $ &; - & & 2 -
0 + 8 , #< G E -,^' 7 2 6 7 L< &j
& F( }' . K- I0 + & "' , & # . K g J 0 J 0 + }' -5 L" 8 ,
I! 2 - 0 +L - 0 + & a < . K g J 7 I0 + 8 1 . K-0 + < & T ) * +I
. K-0 + < & + 0 + & U $
L ;M O+$ 8 , #< * = L"Economic Forecasting] G E7- I& 2 - "
" . K- I& F - & K $ K $ O+$E2 g J G E7- I , * F - 2 - K F( & $ V
&N = ! * :; & - < #$ % & $ V . K L"i4 -5 - 4 - 3l
&7 ) : 4 & F , E *M SH $ ~ Z 8 , #< 0 = L"ARIMA,^(*
-, E *M . K &$ U $ - 2Autoregressive (AR)&7 ) : -
Moving Average (MA)&7 ) : 4 , E * n T F( -Autoregressive
Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)
K 4 L" g J -: F X* U .0 + # +o LJh 8 , H/ IiFl) * +
8 9 :; & - &' ( #$ % Ki>?@AbACCDlG , 8 8 = 5 - ^"75 SH $ 4
ro $ &; ) + 3<- SH $ ; 4 &* # . K &'O+$, 9 ; 3# , - SH $- J ;- I&'O+$
4. +O+$ 0J& +# & 5 ) $ 9 T SH $ T - I&' ( ) * + X J-8 9 IACCR
&' B -AC>CN IM0 + ` a &W T ) W - ) c $
)% (: ; < =6 7 >
)?@ % &' A0B(
)=6 7 > A0B(
. K KM 8 _ (* - &$ & < g ' # - 8 T !* . K L ;M O+$ }' , 8F '
!,P "7- !, + - O+$ & o # & FJ- & ) - 5 - &' L ;M ) * +iI &*->??@jDxl' H/
. K 1 I U 8 T, & K O+$_- Z ) < , H/ ' # - 8 T & K 8 & ; &U $
&$iLapid & Lorry,1999:159)
,• 7 2 O+$ & & 5 W $ -iI +ACCxjxjl
>O+$ 9 2 e ' ,
Aa < 9 2 e m &
[#, P ch O+$ 3o g J/ TSH $ ) '
x' # ro $ €#<- 9 2 e & +# 9 W
))=6 7 > % &'
. K : - # M 8 & a )M 3 # ,- $ - 4 . / ) F - ) O 7 1 ,
M & 2 < 8 +# g 3 # &" T ,V c^ & - g# M - 4 U & K cM - &' L ;
& - #$ -
) F #,--dU O+$ . / 1 , n:T - ) & - < & -O 9V c5 -
. K &# ; ) O+$ ,- I + c T - # M UJ- T - & :+)
9 2 e & K a - &; )M JM =7 4; ,- ' #, . K , * H/ I )M U &< 7 < & +#
H T, +; &+J L ) B - 2 * )M - 2 : & o ) 2 U,M 6 +,- +# < 0 +
*^( ;iI , + - V'VK>?@kj@Rl. K +# n :T & K 3 # & - O+$ + ' G E
Y 1 2• €#<- & - &J 1- e ! c !$ 9 " M - O+$ G H- 75 !c
&J ) * F h P a <-iI ->?@>j@@l
))% (: ; <Time Series
))% (: ; < 4 %
'5 - Z5 - L" - 8 $ 7 8 V X J & U # - ; 5 8 & 2 & $ V &
& K c - &' L ; K N^, w , 6 F, I8 V +K T' , U 8K 9 +K G E < I& $ 9 J- &' -
& f -iI - +ACCxjAx>l
T' : ,- & 3' 8K +# < 9 2 e & ; ' # & $ V T ,-
& $ ) < - ) ;- < B ‚T, # 8 & 2 & $ V & - I a < "* 9 2 e
I I * F G H . K & = 5 8 - I&+;I) L IS -Vƒ„iBrase &Brase: 32
l,^' 7 = , 8F '-j
zn yyyyyy ,...,,,, 4321= …(2-5)
6 0 Jj
321 ,, yyyj&+; ) " & $ V & ;
nj& $ V & ; ` U
5. + & $ QE2 $ < - $ $ -9 :; & - #$ % &' Z ) *i1982-2007l
& U $ TBox-Jenkins
)))% (: *<*< 4 A+(
I& $ V & ) * F ‚ T(, 8 ,^, & $ V & … L SH $ ' , < 9 : 2 6/
y 5 T * 6 8F ' ) * F G , ' , -Q ' , , 4 3< ' E
$ $ n FZ . K 4 B ; &7 K Q U, c- * J … ' * & $ V & = , $K-
) * F = , ) B QE2- IG H Y- J _ +2 N J ` ", - e $ B, FZ . K - n+ ' - L'
7 2- I& $ V &,^'i
Anderson ,1992 :172-175jl
>Q U,M 6 FTrend Component
A&' - 6 FCyclical Component
[& 6 FSeasonal Component
x& o ( 6 Fie $ YlIrregular Component
,• F( = , 8F '-j
C 5 ;+,DE(: *<*< 4 A+(%
)
-6 % (: ; <
&N = ! 2 " #$ % &' ( ) * + 4 U, , I0 + 1 2 4 U *M1, M2 & M39
&$ * = 6 * 7 Z 8>?@A-5 6 * 7 Z &' B -ACCD$' 6 F' G E - IA??E2- I9 2 (
( 8SH * 3 +: c o 6 F' ) 2ARIMAO+$
3 #$ % X7 ( $ †M1:; & - <i1l
4.17856 * 7 Z 8 9
&$ * =>?@A&$ -5 6 * 7 Z . /ACCA.$ #$ % K < 9 +F 9 'V - $ E2- I
3M14c& T 4' ( 8 ' < & * oM ) *- n"$ ` ", . / | 5
&' $ &' L ;M ) K :# 4 c g . K
M- B - n"$ 8 ) L ) o K ' #, a < :; & - &" T &' #$ ) * '-
' < +7 N ! F' 5. / g B - n"$ < +F ` ", M 6 < G H . / &< ah #$ % K 9
& & $+ ' : !$ +7 PVc ‚L E - = M ] "*h 9 ' N 8 - & F ) 'h 9 '
M < &' #$ & 9 ' . / g I& T & o 4' ( E "$,-:# #$ L ;
i1lQ U,M n & #<- I&' ( ) * + 4; - 8 - 0J + +; 8 &' ( $ )M w+ JXbaY ˆˆˆ +=
6. 3 #$ % ( $M1&$ * = 6 * 7 Z 8 9 :; & - <ACC[
&$ -5 6 * 7 Z &' B -ACCD9 QE X7 ( $ 6 7 #< I426.82929 " ##
#$ % ( $ < 9 +7M19 G
4 " #$ % KM23 " #$ % K 8K 9 +K 2 E -M1! / €<
&' M 4o4 " #$ % K . * H/M23 " #$ % K 6^Z G H < !*^ZM1
&$ * = 6 * 7 Z 8 9 +7 F(ACC[&$ -5 6 * 7 Z &' B -ACCD€ * €## I
# +7 ' Z@x @Dxk5 ] < 9 o " ` ", . / o K G H-
#$ % X7 ( $ -M2Q # * 3#J #< :; & - <>>>D >x?C9
&$ * = 6 * 7 Z 8ACC[' B -&$ -5 6 * 7 Z &ACCD
4 -5 " #$ % K = '-M3& & #$ % KM2&K ) M / €<
&' U m $+ SI&" T M 3' $W - M m $+7 M ) O giHosk & Zohn : 4
l
5 #$ % K c--4 -M39 ' . / g & K $L ) ' L ; e$ < : . / o K
^ 2 E - &LLT & < L - & ) T 9 o 4 ,- FZ ,- &: & ) O K
#' FZ5 QE2 )E ^< I& 9 ' c FZ 3' ,- S *h € o € $2 ' V " <5 ) - N . /
L; <- & , & 4< o - . / ' , & * F / 4 8' ) +Y 4 #< ,- X $ o & =
&$F 9 ;^ - 8F w;-)
I % K>?@?j>>kl
4‡ -5 .$ ‡ ‡#$ % K Z-M3Q ‡# ‡+7 ' ‡Z € ‡ * ‡:; &‡ - ‡<>AR C?@@‡Z 8‡ 9 ‡
&$ * = 6 * 7ACC[&$ ‡ -5 6 * ‡7 Z . -ACCD9 ‡'- &‡' U m ‡$+ - 4‡ ‡o K G‡ H- I
#$ % K < 9 +7 9 ' . / g E 5 I) . K +;h 9 ' 4 ) M &+ *M3&‡ - ‡<
Q ‡‡# X‡‡7 ‡‡ * ‡‡ ‡‡:;>xkC [>@C* ‡‡= 6 * ‡‡7 ‡‡Z 8‡‡ 9 ‡‡ACC[‡‡Z .‡‡ --5 6 * ‡‡7
ACCD; F( - IiAl:; & - < #$ % K ) $ $ = ' Q *j
; FZiAl* = 6 * 7 8 9 :; & - < #$ % K>?@A-5 6 * 7 &' B -ACCD
0.00
20,000.00
40,000.00
60,000.00
80,000.00
100,000.00
120,000.00
140,000.00
Jan-82Jan-83Jan-84Jan-85Jan-86Jan-87Jan-88
Jan-89
Jan-90Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02
Jan-03Jan-04
Jan-05Jan-06
=F$5GA%*(
M1
M2
M3
7. -
ARIMA
-% $5 %B*ARIMA
a ) * . K 2 K 8 G H- I F O+$ ] 2 g J/ & $ V , & K ,
I K ", n *- I 7 & + - I& 9 2 e +# 8K J a- =7 L, ' # I a -
< NO, ) NO -)I UACCDj>l
-) 8 &cE $ & & 5 ) "L - ‚o LT S $ & $ V , 8 1
+ M ! ' & G X $ SH $ . K L ' J- I& $ V & ) 2 ( ' ,
& +# # O+$ & K , & ˆ J ) a "& $ V &
& U $ L#'Box-Jenkins8 7 #+ & U $ G ,George Box-Gwilyn Jenkins
K & $ V . K>?RCI& $ V 7 ( 8 =F &' ; 9 e* & U $ QE2 #,- I
SH * , H/ I& $ V &# ; ) O+$, : ,-ARIMAU'h G H- SH $ ,- P $+ & e$ &#'
i= 5 SH $l& $ V ) * . K & $+ SH $ 8 8! K L ' = 5 SH $ -
&K SH $ < P : 5 - I o LJ/ & 2 ! < ) 7 w* 7 H/ = cH * '- IP : • .* 5
F(#iKang ,1980 : 7-8 )
-)H I J H5> 6Autocorrelation Function ACF
_ +, M " 6/Correlation& < & ) B 8 &; K c- Q $ ) B 8
$ < &:+, ) 2 ( - ) B 6 # < I& $ ViI +U>??>j[C[l
, E _ +, M v #'-kP&; 9 ;i_ +, Ml9 2 ( # 8tX-ktX −) 2 ( 8
& o ( ) B 8 -iI B>?RAj@@lU,M v"$ B , ) B w* 7 H‰< I9 ' Qi-
6 L#*l9 ' . / O, - ) B J <i6 L#* -lXc _ +, M 6 Eo $K # < • <
! &c . K -i+1l) B J 9 'V< v7 Q U, B , ) B w* 7 H/ Ii!* L#* -l. / O,
6 L#*i9 ' -l#'- Ig 5 # <! &c . K - X _ +, M 6 Eo $Ki-1l8 _ +, M + '-
, _ +, =7 - 8' BPerfectg 5 ) B < B 4 X $ 2 J < B 6 7 H/i
) I * (jA@kl
&; 9 ; &c - FZ 8K & o + 9 F< ) * + ( *M FZ : '-FZ 8 8 +, H‰< I) B 8
~- '- I_ +, M y J 3' 8K , ; , ; &c | ; 6‰< ) B 8 &; K c- ( *M
Xc _ +, M 8 _ +, Mi+1lX _ +, M -i-1l11− riI ZACC[j>k@l
C 5 K (DEJ H5> ;( ( LA*
b[oVU , E _ +, M &PACFPartial Autocorrelation Function
oVU , E _ +, M & = ,PACF8 $ 8 , < B & ; 8 &;
_ +, M & V '- Ig 5 ) " ) +N % < 4 I8 " TV oVU , EkkP_ +, M <
Pk
Zero
+1
! "
- 1
# "
8. 8 oVUtY-ktY −; + 4 I $ _ +, M . / ('tY8 , " 8 4#, g 5
t-t-kiI ~ACC[jRA?l
Y W 8F '-oVU , E _ +, M & a ' & &kkP, E _ +, M & 8ACF
,^' 7iIACCAj>>l
1
11
1
1
21
1
P
P
PP
P
Pkk ÷=
…(3-9)
1
1
1
1
1
12
11
21
312
21
11
PP
PP
PP
PPP
PP
PP
×=
-1M %ARIMA
-1H I 5 " > AARAutoregressive Model
, E *M &#' <AR& 9 " < B & ; ,tY) " < B v"* & ; . K
&#( )nttt YYY −−− ,...,, 21*M & , &#' : QE2 . K 3 :, G E I65 Š *M , H - , E
&# ) " < ! ; . K , B & ;
-1N > H * H I 5 " > AAR(1)
The First–Order Autoregressive Model
; B, SH $ E2 }L'tY9 J - 9 J1−tY. -5 &+, 8 , E *M SH * &Y W 8F '- I
&& ,•iIACCkjRAkl
ttt eYY ++= −1φφ …(3-10)
6 0 Jj
φ2 ' #, XU' , E *M &
φ, E *M w N6 9 K % "* n + - I0=φw N J c ' M
1−tY& $ V & &# ) 2 (tY
teJ n +: 4' 4+ ,- & # 6 F, 6 % "' & o ( ) B‹I "W
Q # w N 8' +,-
2
σ
,• $ . K ^ & M , E *M SH * & 7 8F '-iNamit & Others: 2)
( ) tt eYB =−φ1 …(3-11)
, E *M & 6 7φ6 XU'I9 J 9 o ; 4#, $K &' # M _ Z < ,
J - 2 :; }L* 9 o( )11 <<− φ6 F, $ < I1>φL; $ , E _ +, M FZ 6 F' 2 $K
F(i$2l6 7 H/ I!, Z/ B' 6 6-1<φF( L; $ , E _ +, M FZ 6 F' 2 $K
i$2l^, 7 $K !, Z/ B
, E _ +, M & -kP. -5 &+, 8 , E *M SH $AR(1)2j
1−= kk PP φ …(3-12)
$K0>k
oVU , E _ +, M &kkP, E *M & &'- 6 F,AR(1)) -
"W - , g 5 oVU , E _ +, MiI $BACC[j>>l
9. -1)% O H * H I 5 " > AAR(2)
The Second – Order Autoregressive Model
. -5 &+, 8 , E *M SH * . / 9 ' c , H * & &< a/ $KAR(1)…+L,
& * = &+, 8 , H * & &AR(2)& ,• &B Lj
tttt eYYY +++= −− 2211 φφφ …(3-13)
7 ]- " &#' : Q K & X F,-,•iMahmood : 33l
( ) tt eXBB =−− 2
21 φφ …(3-14)
,• 7 X F, SH $ E2 < , E _ +, M & -j
221 −− += kkk PPP φφ …(3-15)
, E _ +, M & < &' # M _ Z 6 F'-ACF* = &+, 8 , E *M SH $AR(2)
SH $ , E _ +, M & < &' # M _ ( (AR(1),• 7 Ij
11 <<− φ
oVU , E _ +, M &PACFSH $AR(2)* = ^ , o <i
Kang
,1980 : 9l
011 ≠φ
022 ≠φ
6 0 J022 ≠φ* = ^ $K2>k
-1)P " 4 A AMAMoving Average Model
E P B ‰ V '- I& $ V & & # n + n 2 m n) E
2 U, - & 9 2 ( # 8 9 +F ) U" P B / I& $ V & 8 9 +FiI JACC[j
>[l
^:T & ; m n SH * E ^'-te^:T & a # - #+ -
qttt eee −− ...,,, 1v - ! J <, E _ +, &+ $ G E7- I! "* B & ;ACF8
Œ &+; #tY, E *M &#' & J <AR, E _ +, M 6‰< &7 ) : &#' I
) #+ &+; # 8 6 Fi^:TlteiI>??CjA??l
[bkP " 4 A Q( *( + H I 5 " >ARIMA
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
I # Q $ a- - G H * 7H 7- I9 # Y 6 F, FZ X Y < &' L ;M & $ V 6/
Y & $ V & ' !*‰</ $K H/ I ]- " E XU' &$7 & $ & . / &$7
]- "dSH * . /ARMA(p, q)SH * . / SH $ 'ARIMA (p, d, q)
(,-p- I , E *M &+, . /d- I]- " &+, . /qX F,- I&7 ) : &+, . /
SH $ & a ' &B LARIMA (p, d, q), E *M SH * rAR(p)n SH * 4
mMA(q)& ,• &B L …+LiBeasley : 33l
qtqtttptpttt eee-eYYYY −−−−−− −−−++++= ...... 2212211 θθθφφφ …(3-31)
^ & M -j
22
21
2
21 ...1...1 qq
p
pt BBBBBBY θθθθφφ −−−−+−−−−= …(3-32)
1+ ;%*"4 %!"
E2 < #$3 ! " #$ % & $ V L"M1! " #$ % K-
4M24 -5 ! " #$ % K-M3&$ 8 & $ V 9 :; & - <>?@A&$ &' B -ACCD
SH * TARIMA, E _ +, M & 8 G H-ACF$ V & &' # &<<- I&
10. & $ & . / ' -5 ] " E ^$ < K Q U, . K = o JM & $ V & # K & J
_ +, M & 9 2 ( 8 - 9 # w +W & $ V & . K g 9 ‚ T(, U* N 9 #
, EACF&7 ) : &+, 'MAoVU , E _ +, M & T - IPACF‚ T(
, E *M &+,AR
) * + O+$ & o SH $ …Z * &J # SH $ ' # #* SH $ X, ‚ T( P c/ -
SH $ 8 8 = 5 SH $ T* 9 :T QE2 - I 7E &"*ˆ & $ VO+$ & Z - 9 T
3 #$ % O+$ G H- O+$ &; v ' # X JM14 -M24 -5 -M38 & +# 9
* = 6 * 7 ZACCR-5 6 * 7 Z &' B -AC>C
1R%S T 4 % ;%*"HM1ARIMA
1A M %
8; * + F(iAl* = 6 * 7 Z 8 9 3 #$ % K &>?@A&' B -
-5 6 * 7 ZACCD6 * 7 Z 8 9 W L ' V K Q U, . K , ) * + 6 •J *
* =ACC[-5 6 * 7 Z &' B -ACCDSH * 6 - IARIMA* + . K n#< 3+:$,, M )
. -5 &c ]- < E 8 G H- Q U,M & / 6• $ K !* I ' V K Q U, . K
, E _ +, M #* & $ V & # 8 7^ -ACF, E _ +, M & -
oVUPACFK - &' # 8K }(F ) * +, E _ +, M & - I& $ V & &' #ACF
,• & =j
VAR00001
Lag Number
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
ACF
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
C 5 ;+,D-EH I J H5> 4 ( (ACFM1
&#= - J S 4#' , E _ +, M FZ 6/ I * + F( 8 … '?kŽg . K>D9 U<
I& $ + * +7 2- Pn+ ‚; $ ' _ +, M 6 < G E7->D& 6 < - & $ 9 U<
9 # Y 3 " #$ % K3 #$ % K & . -5 ]- " . K L * 6 B+$' G E
M1
, E _ +, M & 8ACF$ % K ) * + & $ V & 6 U*#M1M !* 9 # Y
]- " E ^* 9 # & $ V & c- Q U,M & h- I& $ V & X $ SH $ ' , $$F '
i-5 ] "lQ U,M & h ]- " QE2 "F, 0 J I) * + +: ' Y E 4 ) * +
-* + F(,M3 #$ % . -5 ]- " & , E _ +, M &M1j
11. VAR00001
Transforms: natural log, difference (1)
Lag Number
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
ACF
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
C 5 ;+UD1EF > V B IW H I J H5> 4 ( (
) 6 … ' I. -5 3 #$ % K & ]- " , E _ +, M & FZ &$'
+, Me , E _ +, M ) ; 6 - I& $ V ) U" X Y5 &#= - J + Y 4#, , E _
8 & F & W5 & 6 - I9 # & $ V & 6 $ ' E2- I "L 8 &+' ; & $ V ) U"
. -5 &cid=1l
E _ +, M & FZ 9 2 ( 8 -m n &+, r $ * Q K ,MA (q)FZ I
, E *M &+, 8 + < Q * oVU , E _ +, M &AR (P)j
VAR00001
Transforms: natural log, difference (1)
Lag Number
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
PartialACF
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
C 5 ;+UD3EF > V B IW X:9 H I J H5> 4 ( (
1)A C ( $ H
' ,8 7 &+,AR-MAoVU , E _ +, M - , E _ +, M & 9 2 ( 8
w +W & $ V & 6 + K 8F '- I& o ( P : 5 & # & o # & a < +; 4 : * Q K
, P c‰ 6• #* ISH $ ' #, . / # *M 4 : *- 9 #ARIMA3<- & $ V &
& $ V & ) * + o SH $ + M Q K ) :T * G E -AARIMA (1,1,1)
,• 7 !, 6/-j
p = 1, E *M &cd = 1]- " &cq = 1&7 ) : &c
12. L * SH $ ' # -& ,• ro $ . Kj
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Number of residuals 298
Standard error 462.07842
Log likelihood -2249.9688
AIC 4505.9377
SBC 4517.029
Analysis of Variance:
DF Adj. Sum of Squares Residual Variance
Residuals 295 63062626.6 213516.46
Variables in the Model:
B SEB T-RATIO APPROX. PROB.
AR1 .98489 .035294 27.905585 .00000000
MA1 .94930 .058161 16.321731 .00000000
CONSTANT 116.09705 78.439934 1.480076 .13992015
< ~ # SH $ T 8F '- I& o LJh & J $ 8 &' 2 c 6 Q K ro $ 8 •J *
O+$
+ U*~ # SH $ ; +ARIMA (1,1,1), E _ +, M & 8
ACF_ +, M & -oVU , EPACF& ,•j
Error for VAR00001 from ARIMA, MOD_7 LN CON
Lag Number
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
ACF
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
C 5 ;+UD8EA H I J H5> 6AARIMA (1,1,1)
13. Error for VAR00001 from ARIMA, MOD_7 LN CON
Lag Number
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
PartialACF
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
;+UC 5DYEJ H5> 6A A X:9 H IARIMA (1,1,1)
6 = ) " &eJ 8 -. -5iP : h ) <l, E _ +, MACF, E _ +, M -
oVUPACF& o LJ/ * U* Ii&' $ Yl8F '- I o (K m ; + 6 $ 'T
#$ % 9 # ) * + = Q * * + F( 6 F'- I O+$ < ~ # SH $M1j
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan-82Jan-83Jan-84Jan-85Jan-86Jan-87Jan-88Jan-89Jan-90Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10
=F$5GA%*(
% % " C%
0 Z C%
C 5 ;+UD[ETM1O GA P .( * @ Z][)F ^ GA P $ _)` `
1)Q A T 4 % ;%*"HM2ARIMA
1)A M %
14. ; * + F( 8iAlZ 8 €P ' V K Q U, . K , ) * + 6 •J ** = 6 * 7
ACC[SH * 6/- IARIMA6• $ K !* I ' V K Q U, . K , M ) * + . K n#< 3+:$,
. -5 &c ]- < E 8 G H- Q U,M & /
, E _ +, M + U*-ACF(F ) * +&' # K - &' # 8K }&
, E _ +, M & - I& $ VACF,• 7 2j
VAR00001
Lag Number
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
ACF
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
C 5 ;+UD]EH I J H5> 4 ( (ACFM2
&#= - J S 4#, , E _ +, M ) 6/ I * + F( 8 … '?kŽg . K>D9 U<
6 < G E7- I& $ + * +7 2- Pn+ ‚; $ ' _ +, M>D& 6 < - & $ 9 U<
#$ % K & . -5 ]- " . K L * 6 B+$' G E I ' 9 # Y 3 " #$ % K
4M2
, E _ +, M & FZ 8ACF#$ % K ) * + & $ V & 6 U*M2Y]- " E ^*- 9 #
i-5 ] "l9 # & $ & . / & $ V & ' I) * + +: ' Y E 4 ) * +
, E _ +, M & * + F( -ACF,^' 7 ]- " Ej
VAR00001
Transforms: natural log, difference (1)
Lag Number
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
ACF
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
C 5 ;+UD`E> 4 ( (F ^ V B IW H I J H5
m n &+, r $ * Q K , E _ +, M & FZ 8MA (q)_ +, M & I
, E *M &+, 8 + < Q * oVU , EAR (P)j
15. VAR00001
Transforms: natural log, difference (1)
Lag Number
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
PartialACF
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
;+UDEX:9 H I J H5> 4 ( (F ^ V B IW
1))A C ( $ H
8 7 &+, ' ,AR-MA, E _ +, M FZ- , E _ +, M & FZ 9 2 ( 8
& $ V & 6 + K 8F '- I& o ( P : 5 & # & o # & a < +; 4 : * Q K oVU
*- 9 # w +W, P c‰ #* H/ ISH $ ' #, . / # *M 4 :ARIMA3<- & $ V &
& $ V & ) * + o SH $ + M Q K ) :T * G E -AARIMA (1,1,1)
E -,^' 7 !,j
p = 1, E *M &cd = 1" &c]-q = 1&7 ) : &c
& ,• ro $ . K L * SH $ ' # -j
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Number of residuals 298
Standard error 720.93926
Log likelihood -2383.0529
AIC 4772.1057
SBC 4783.197
Analysis of Variance:
DF Adj. Sum of Squares Residual Variance
Residuals 295 154058889.5 519753.42
Variables in the Model:
B SEB T-RATIO APPROX. PROB.
AR1 .99306 .01514 65.572039 .00000000
MA1 .90413 .03833 23.585864 .00000000
CONSTANT 552.41670 418.80617 1.319027 .18818299
~ # SH $ T 8F '- I& o LJh & J $ 8 &' 2 c 6 Q K ro $ 8 •J *
ARIMA (1,1,1)O+$ < I
+ U*~ # SH $ ; +ARIMA (1,1,1)& 8, E _ +, M
ACFoVU , E _ +, M & -PACF& ,•i
j
16. Error for VAR00002 from ARIMA, MOD_11 LN CON
Lag Number
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
ACF
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
C 5 ;+UD)E5> 6A A H I J HARIMA (1,1,1)
Error for VAR00002 from ARIMA, MOD_13 LN CON
Lag Number
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
PartialACF
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
C 5 ;+UD-EJ H5> 6A A X:9 H IARIMA (1,1,1)
. -5 6 = ) " &eJ 8 -iP : h ) <l, E _ +, MACF, E _ +, M -
oVUPACF& o LJ/ * U* Ii&' $ YlT 8F '- I o (K m ; + 6 $ '
O+$ < ~ # SH $Q * * + F( 6 F'-#$ % 9 # ) * + =M2
18. &#= - J S 4#' , E _ +, M FZ 6/ I * + F( 8 … '?kŽg . K>DU<I& $ 9
+ * +7 2- Pn+ ‚; $ ' _ +, M 6 < G E7->D#$ % K & 6 < - & $ 9 U<
9 # Y 4 -5 "& $ V & . -5 ]- " . K L * 6 B+$' G E
, E _ +, M & 8ACF% K ) * + & $ V & 6 U*#$M3$$F ' M !* 9 # Y
]- " E ^* 9 # & $ V & c- Q U,M & h- I& $ V & X $ SH $ ' ,i] "
-5lQ U,M & h ]- " QE2 "F, 0 J I) * + +: ' Y E 4 ) * +
* + -, E _ +, M &ACF,^' 7 -5 ] " Ej
VAR00001
Transforms: natural log, difference (1)
Lag Number
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
ACF
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
C 5 ;+UD8EF ^ V B IW H I J H5> 4 ( (
K , E _ +, M & FZ 8m n &+, r $ * QMA (q)_ +, M & I
oVU , E, E *M &+, 8 + < Q *AR (P)j
VAR00001
Transforms: natural log, difference (1)
Lag Number
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
PartialACF
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
C 5 ;+UDYEF ^ V B IW X:9 H I J H5> 4 ( (
19. 1-)A C ( $ H
8 7 &+, ' ,AR-MA, M & FZ- , E _ +, M & FZ 9 2 ( 8, E _ +
& $ V & 6 + K 8F '- I& o ( P : 5 & # & o # & a < +; 4 : * Q K oVU
, P c‰ #* H/ ISH $ ' #, . / # *M 4 : *- 9 # w +WARIMA3<- & $ V &
SH $ + M Q K ) :& $ V & ) * + oT * G E -AARIMA (1,1,0)
!, E2 !, -j
p = 1, E *M &+,d = 1]- " &+,q = 0&7 ) : &+,' # -
& ,• ro $ . K L * SH $j
FINAL PARAMETERS:
Number of residuals 299
Standard error 1952.9117
Log likelihood -2688.9157
AIC 5381.8314
SBC 5389.2323
Analysis of Variance:
DF Adj. Sum of Squares Residual Variance
Residuals 297 1133534923.4 3813864.1
Variables in the Model:
S B SEB T-RATIO APPROX. PROB.
AR1 -.44044 .052098 -8.4540806 .00000000
CONSTANT 385.13831 78.486545 4.9070616 .00000153
~ # SH $ T 8F '- I& o LJh & J $ 8 &' 2 c 6 Q K ro $ 8 •J *-
ARIMA(1,1,0)5 &+, 8 , H * SH * 2-. -AR (1)O+$ <
+ U*~ # SH $ ; +ARIMA (1,1,0), E _ +, M & 8
ACFoVU , E _ +, M & -PACF& ,•j
Error for VAR00001 from ARIMA, MOD_3 LN CON
Lag Number
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
ACF
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
C 5 ;+UD[EH5> 6A A H I JARIMA (1,1,0)
20. Error for VAR00001 from ARIMA, MOD_3 LN CON
Lag Number
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
PartialACF
1.0
.5
0.0
-.5
-1.0
Confidence Limits
Coefficient
C 5 ;+UD]EJ H5> 6A A X:9 H IARIMA (1,1,0)
. -5 6 = ) " &eJ 8 -iP : h ) <l, E _ +, MACFoVU , E _ +, M -
PACF& o LJ/ * U* Ii&' $ Yl6 $ 'SH $ T 8F '- I o (K m ; +
O+$ < ~ ##$ % 9 # ) * + = Q * * + F( 6 F'-M3
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Jan-82
Jan-83
Jan-84
Jan-85
Jan-86
Jan-87
Jan-88
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
=F$5GA%*(
% % " C%
0 Z C%
C 5 ;+UD)`ETM3O GA P .( * @ Z][)F ^ GA P $ _
)` `
21. 114 % A 4 a >
114 a >
>c- •J ' I :; & - < #$ % K v ' # &' ( ) * + & $ V * + F( 9 2 ( 8
* = 6 * 7 Z E$ #$ % K < +7 ' V,- 9 "ACC[-5 6 * 7 Z &' B -ACCDQE2- I
. / #$, 9 'Vj
#$ % K M15 6 * 7 Z-ACC[Q # X7 *xAD @A?A6 7 6
& a ) $ - 9 QE2 +; X7 $i& ` alx >R@k
#$ % K M2* = 6 * 7 ZACC[Q # X7 *>>>D >x?C6
9 QE2 +; X7 $ 6 7@x @Dxk
#$ % KM3* = 6 * 7 ZACC[Q # X7 *>xkC [>@C6
9 QE2 +; X7 $ 6 7>AR C?@@
A&N = ! 2 " :; & - < #$ % &' ( ) * + ,- & 8i3M1I
4 -M24 -5 - IM3lSH * T IARIMAAutoregressive Integrated -Moving
Average& U $ 1 ' -Box-Jenkins8 7 #+ 8 7 #+ IGeorge Box-
Gwilyn JenkinsK & $ V . K>?RC, E *M SH * 8 r . K & o # - IAR
Autoregressive) : SH *-&7MAMoving AverageT - & w W ,
, E _ +, M & )ACFX :, I9 # Y &N = ! 2 " #$ % & $ V 6 . /
]- " &#' Ti-5 ] " El9 # & $ . / ' & $ V ) * +
[#,SH * 'ARIMA8 - I :; & - < #$ % &' ( ) * + & $ V
% & +# &' ( ) * + 8 O+$ SH $ …Z * O+$ &; v ' # T & a "
* = 6 * 7 Z 8 9 :; & - < #$ACCR6 * 7 Z &' B - I-5AC>C,^' 7 - Ij
SH $ } u ,ARIMA (1,1,1)3 " #$ % O+$M1
SH $ } u ,ARIMA (3,1,3)4 " #$ % O+$M2
SH $ } u ,ARIMA (1,1,0)4 -5 " #$ % O+$M3
x#$ % K < +F ` ", M gV '* = 6 * 7 Z :; & -ACC[. / 2 9 -
& & - &' #$ & } a G E7- I& .$+ 4' ( < 4 . /- I B - n"$ ` ",
:; & - < #$ % - - Wh & K 9 h
11)4 % A
>o * 8 9 " M#$ % K v ' # & # & $ V 9 O+$ 3 ' < W L & QE2 r
iM1, M2, M3l-O Q + K :; & - < V7 G$+ X* c 8 &' #* & $+, - 4a- $K
:; & - < #$ # M 8K -5
A} u , 8 & +# & 0J + • ',Intervention Analysis4
SH *ARIMA9 #$ % K v ' # & $ V m . K z J E B … a G H- I
* = 6 * 7 Z 8ACC[-5 6 * 7 Z &' B -ACCD
[SH * T 0J + W 'ARIMA# o LJ/ , P c/ $KQE2 6‰< I& $ V
&U . K , ; 4 IO+$ < T 8F ' ^"75 SH $ . K L 8 8F ' SH $
& $ V * , 7 ( X Y
22. x&' #* & H T, 0J + W ' I :; & - < #$ % K ! * ' E +F #$ T X+
,n"$ ) - ! c & n:T 4a- 4 I :# L ;M < +$c5 - #$ 3< , 8 8
#$ T & F( ; ",- I :; & - < #$ % K 9 ' < 2 K 8 ' B -
k…+W 6 F' 5 M- :# ' _ +, G" 0J + W '&a K F' 5 M-
M- 8 # =75 &' #$ ) 8 & 8K 0 + X : ' I!< W < 9 ) + #
:# ' 1 W # 6 F' 5
23. 56 7
b>% _* 56 7
I8 J +K c 6 * KjX 7cd V eI G & c IACCA
*- F M 4; . Kpdf.1book221or/or/net.abarry.www://http
AbI - +U +K +Kjf% ^% % %X 7cdI6 5 I ($ ]- ( IACCx
[bb=:P g*- F M 4; Ij
aspx.defaultA/Arabic/qa.gov.qcb.www://http
xbI +U• +K X +J Zj% h 7cdII B I& F>??>
kbI U8j5 Q 4 % HD% A c 4 % HlG & 7 < ) - z + V7 I
I& $ 5 <ACCD
*- F M 4; . Kj
do.2R_032R/Reports_/032R142612Journal/Docs/sa.edu.kfsc.www://ttp
8cI Jjf% 'I (K 4 I& $ c & U IACC[
Db} ' X YI -jP U> Q 9 5 6d %* T B%i +(L ;M & U I
I4 I>?@>j
[IK a < % KjLA 6AI B I>?@?
?b8 J I Zj=A%" % B A h 7cdI6 5 I ($ P "W IACC[
`I +J5 8 J +Kj=5 6d k6 (I ($ 4 : I G & c IACCx
- I V'VKj, + 2 -j7 > 5 H %* T &5 6 $6 7 > 4=69 J & U I
I6 K I -5 I&' L ;M>?@k
)I!*-6- ˆ-I Kj4 %* d 5 6lIm F I6- 8 I>??@j
-I B K / I Bj!$ " h 7cd k6 (I B IP 2V & +: I>?RA
1b• +K 8 JI $Bj"H$6A < % +* C0 ^ 5 ' U % (: *<*< ;%*
%90 (Box-JenkinsI * = IV'V +K G & c & U IACC[
3I# +Kj% 6 7 > !$ "I&' $F h I&K +: & U IACCk
8I * (V 2 $J I 8 Jjh 7cdyI B I& F w & +: I)
YI ~~ " +K cjf* 5 %*%*"H 4 6' mVA< 5 =6 7 > ;W
5 ^I ($ - } ^ V7 I L < G & c IACC[
[IZ 2 6 * Kjf%4 % H V e X 7c>< & F & +: I9 L+ & c I
I9 L+>??C
b% n$:%*+ > _* 56 7
1- Anderson, David Ray and others, Quantitative Methods for Business, West
Publishing Company, 1992
2- .Beasley, J. EThe Forecasting.
F M 4; . K*-j
html.jeb/jeb/mastjjb~/uk.ac.brunel.people://http
3- Charles Brase & Brase, Under Standable Statistical
*- F M 4; . Kj
http://www.amazon.comunderstandable-statistics-Hen
24. 4-Friedman ,M: The Supply of Money and Changes in Prices and Output,
Macmillan, 1970.
5- b(1) Hosk, W. R. & Zohn, F.; Money Theory, Policy and Financial Markets.
*- F M 4; . Kj
pdf.catalog/catalog/edu.umdnj.dentalschool://http
6- (1)Kang,Chin-Sheng Alan: Identification of Autoregressive Integrated
Moving Average Time Series, Ph.thesis unpublishedm, Arizona State
University, 1980.
7- . Kent,R .P: Money and Banking, 4th Ed., New York, 1961
8-(1) Lapid & Lorry; New Development in Business Forecasting, 1999,
*- F M 4; . Kj
http://www.Forecasting-competition.com
9- Namit, Kal and Others Teaching Box-Jenkins Models Using Exel, Winston-
Salem State University
10- Mahmood, Hussain Shakir