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EUpDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic Indicators

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Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a Quick Review of the Economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.

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EUpDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic Indicators

  1. 1. EUpDates April 2018 AAA MMMooonnnttthhhlllyyy SSStttaaatttiiissstttiiicccaaalll BBBuuulllllleeetttiiinnn 2018 SSSuuurrrgggeee RRReeessseeeaaarrrccchhh SSSuuuppppppooorrrttt wwwwwwwww...eeecccooofffiiinnn---sssuuurrrgggeee...cccooo...iiinnn
  2. 2. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 2 A Quick Review of the Economy Global growth indicators remained strong in the first quarter of 2018 after a 3% (qoq, saar) rise in output in the final quarter of 2017. The JP Morgan Global Composite PMI stood at 53.3 in March, after reaching 54.8 in February, the highest since mid-2014. Though unemployment rates in many countries are seeing lows not seen for a decade or more, the rise in inflation remains incipient providing leg-room for orderley winding down of easy money policies. Global oil prices,which had climbed down by 5% (mom) in February on higher inventories,rose again in late March on fears of sanctions agaist Iran. The US economy continued to gain; tax cuts boosted personal disposable incomes taking the savings rate to 3.2% in January from a decade-long low of 2.5%. The labour market added 313,000 jobs in February as compared to an average of 200,000 since 2011. The new Fed Chaiperson increased the policy rate by 25bps on 21st March. The Euro area has also maintained more or less robust growth in early 2018. Recent euro-area data have disappointed however, with gauges for economic activity and retail sales missing estimates and investor confidence slipping. The slide has been particularly pronounced in Germany, the region’s largest economy, where exports and industrial output both saw a sharp drop in February. The trend continued with French manufacturing and Italian industrial production both posting unexpected declines. Fiscal positions of some members of the euro area were still “sub-optimal” despite the window of opportunity provided by the ECB’s still-accommodative policy to improve their positions and implement structural reforms. Japan’s recent indicatrs suggest steady improvement after a 1.7% growth in 2017. Japan's unemployment rate increased in February, but still at its lowest level since April 1993. China’s inflation numbers indicate slowing growth in 2018. Producer price inflation continued to cool in March, slowing to a 17-month low, and softening for five months in a row, supporting the view that a slowdown in the world's second largest economy is inevitable, weighed down by the cooling property market and rising borrowing costs. Consumer inflation also eased in the previous month as the effects of booming demand spurred by the Lunar New Year holiday in February receded, The President promised to open the country's economy further and lower import tariffs on products like cars, in a speech seen as an attempt to defuse the increasingly bitter dispute with the US. China will allow foreign firms to compete on an equal footing with domestic companies in the financial sector by year-end. Global financial markets, after recoveringfrom a bout of turbulence in February, faced renewd volatility in late March, arising from fears of increasing protectionism. The better news for investors comes after words from both Beijing and Washington in the latest signs of a climbdown from the brink of a potentially damaging trade war. While the Chinese president promised economic reforms and lower import tariffs, soothing fears over the country’s simmering trade standoff with the US, the US president tweeted confirmation that the US could rejoin the Pacific Rim pact (TPP) if offered a better deal. A gauge of global equity price movements, the MSCI All Country World equity index reached a High of 529.77 and a Low of 498.72 in March. India's IIP sustained the growth momentum and acceleratedto 7.5% in January, on the back of strong manufacturingcoupled with higher off take of consumer and capital goods. Manufacturing output rose 8.7%, Electricity generation rose 7.6%, while Infrastructure and construction goods’ output grew 6.8%. Mining output rose just 0.1%, as compared with an 8.6% rise in the same month, last year. The use-based classification showed that production of primary goods rose 5.8%, while Capital goods, a barometerof investments, showed a sharp increase in output by 14.6% in January, 2018 as against a decline of 0.6% year ago. Consumer non-durable goods, which are mainly fast moving consumer goods, too showed an increase of 10.5% as against a growth of 9.6%. Consumer durable goods recorded a growth rate of 8% in January 2018 against a contractionof 2% a year ago. As 16 of the 23 industry groups in the manufacturing sector showed growth, the industrial sector which registered the highest positive growth, was other transport equipment at 33.1%, followed by 27.8% growth in furniture and 26.6% in motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers.Cumulative IIP growth for the period of April-January over the corresponding period of the previous year stands at 4.1%, as compared to 5% in same period in previous financial year. The Index of Eight Core Industries, which represent the output of major sectors like coal, steel, cement and electricity,rose by 5.3% in February compared with an increase of 6.1% in January and 0.6% in the correspondingmonth of 2017.
  3. 3. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 3 WPI inflation eased to 2.48% in February, dipping for the third straight month after touching an eight-month high in November,helped by a softer rise in food and fuel prices. The rate of inflation based on WPI Food Index consisting of ‘Food Articles’ from Primary Articles group and ‘Food Product’ from Manufactured Products group decreased from 1.65% in January to 0.07% in February. From a year earlier, the prices of pulses have fallen by nearly 25% and of sugar by almost 10%. However,vegetables prices in February were up 15.3% from a year ago period. The index for Primary Food Articles group declined by 2% to 137.8 from 140.6 for the previous month due to lower price of fruits & vegetables (9%), gram, tea and masur (4% each), rajma and bajra (3% each), egg, fish-marine, peas and urad (2% each) and wheat (1%). However, the price of arhar, maize, condiments & spices, coffee, moong, fish-inland, poultry chicken and paddy (1% each) moved up. The index for Fuel & Power rose by 1.2% to 98.1 from 96.9 for the previous month. The index for ‘Mineral Oils’ group rose by 1.8% to 89.8 from 88.2 for the previous month due to higher price of ATF (7%), kerosene and lube oils (4% each), furnace oil (3%), HSD and petrol (2% each) and petroleum coke (1%). The index for Manufactured Products rose by 0.4% to 115.2 from 114.7 for the previous month. CPI based inflation eased to a four-month low of 4.44% in February as food prices softened. Among the CPI components, inflation of food and beverages dipped to 3.38% in February from 4.58% in January Inflation in vegetables was 17.57%, down from 26.97% in January, and for fruits it was 4.80% (as against 6.24%). Milk and its products too were less expensive with inflation print of 4.21%, cereals and products at 2.10%, meat & fish at 3.31% while for eggs the prices grew at a slower pace of 8.51%. Inflation for the fuel and light category was at 6.80% in February (against 7.73% in January). However, the rate of price increase was higher for transport and communication services at 2.39% (1.97% January). A hike in import taxes last month across agri-commodities such as oilseeds, pulses and wheat could impact domestic food inflation. The inflation for housing increased to 8.28%, while that for transport and communication2.39% and health 4.95%, while it has eased for personal care and effects to 4.24%, education 4.05%, household goods and services 4.16%. The inflation for clothing and footwear increased to 5.00%. India's fiscal deficit will be narrower than the revised budget estimate of 3.5% of GDP in 2017-18; the fiscal deficit target was revised upwards to 3.5% of GDP or Rs. 5.94 trillion from 3.2% or Rs. 5.46 trillion. Buoyant direct tax collections and record divestment proceeds exceeding Rs. 1 trillion have helped the government in meeting its fiscal deficit. Direct tax collections in FY18 are estimated at Rs. 9.95 trillion. While growth in corporate tax collections was 17%, it was 19% for personal income tax. India reported a fiscal deficit of 7.2 trillion rupees ($110.42 billion) for April-February, which was 120.3 % of the budgeted target for the current fiscal year. Buoyancy in the stock markets, with high trading turnover, particularly in the derivatives segment, has helped the government collect a record amount from the securities transaction tax (STT) in 2017-18. The STT collection for the fiscal year stood at Rs. 111.23 billion, an increase of 24% over 2016-17. The amount is also 43% higher than the Revised Estimates of Rs. 77.7 billion. The government fixed its borrowing target for the first half of the next fiscal (April-September period of 2018-19) to Rs 2.88 trillion. The amount is 48% of the government's budgeted amount for the full fiscal year, much lower than the Rs 3.72 trillion it had borrowed in the first half of 2017-18, in a bid to calm volatile markets. Overnight CMRs mostly remained within the bounds of the policy rate corridor in March, however, moving closer to the upper bound since mid-month and shooting up by 10 bps on the 31st, on account of advance tax outflows and FY closing. Overnight rates traded mostly in alignment with the CMR. With the net G-sec borrowing for FY2018-19 target lowered, bond yields softened somewhat. However, the volatility in global financial markets was reflected in the irregular movements in secondary market yields. Constant maturity yields (CMYs) at the shortest end of the maturity spectrum fell —3-month CMY by 15 bps and the 1-year by 10 bps. YTMS for 2- to5-year residual maturities firmed marginally—3-year by 8 bps and the 5-year by 4 bps. The 10 and 20-year CMYs softened by 2 bps, while CMYs of the in between residual maturity groups firmed by 2 bps. In the First Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement for 2018-19, in early April, the RBI held the policy repo rate under the LAF at 6%. Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF is at 5.75%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate are at 6.25%. The Indian stock markets continued to correct in March. Investor sentiment was already weakened by the February’s sell-off and the government’s decision to re-introduce a tax on long-term equity gains, after 14 years, to boost revenue. Exits by institutional investors looking to avoid the tax by selling before March 31 contributed to the losses in late March. Stock markets lost globally toward end of March as trade skirmishes between the US and China eroded demand for riskier assets. Further investors offloaded positions ahead of March F&O expiry and financial year ending. The mid-caps have seen higher price cuts in the recent correction, but their valuations are still high. In the January-Marchquarter, the Sensex plunged 3.2% and Nifty slumped 3.96%, posting their first quarterly loss since December 2016. For the financial year 2017-18, the Sensex rallied 11.3% and the Nifty surged 10% while the Nifty Realty was the biggest gainer with nearly 38% upside. The Sensex reached a High of 34,278.6 and a Low of 32,483.8 in March and closed the month at 32,968.7, down from 34184 in the previous month. The Nifty reached a High of 10,525.5 and a Low of 9,951.9 in March and closed the month at 10,113.7, down from 10493 in the previous month. FPI net investment in the equity market recoveredand rose by Rs. 11654.3 crore (US$1793 million). However, FPI investment in the debt market turned negative for the first time this fiscal with a net outflow of Rs. 9043.9 crore (US$1391 million). FPI flows in stock markets more than halved to Rs. 260 billion in 2017-18 on fears of faster than expected rate hike by the US Fed and higher valuations of Indian equities. However, a sharp turnaround was seen in FPI inflows into debt markets in the fiscal as FPIs poured in a staggering Rs. 1.2 trillion against a net outflow of about Rs. 73 billion in 2016-17. FPIs' cumulative net investment in the Indian equity market, since being allowed over two decades ago in November 1992, were at Rs. 8.86 trillion till end 2017-18. The cumulative figure for debt securities has also grown to Rs. 4.2 trillion — taking the total for both debt and equities to Rs. 13 trillion. Mutual Funds' net investments in the equity market rose by Rs. 9255.5 crore and in the debt market by Rs. 37977.5 crore in March. Global volatility pushed some investors into redeeming funds as Indian markets fell 10% in little over a month from its January high. Inflows into Indian equity funds in March were the smallest in 13 months. Inflows into balanced funds, which buy stocks and bonds, jumped 34% over February to Rs. 67.5 billion. India's merchandise exports grew by 4.5% in February to $25.8 billion, driven by strong growth in chemicals (30.41%), petroleum products (27.44%) and electronic goods (29.71%). Though exports in 18 out of 30 sectors grew, outbound shipments of engineering, apparels, gems and jewellery, cotton textile and carpets reported negative growth. The gems and jewellery sector is facing huge liquidity issue as banks are tightening their lending norms in the aftermath of the fraud reported by PNB. Imports rose by a higher 10.4% to $37.8 billion during the month, leaving a trade deficit of $12 billion. Import growth was driven by crude and products (32.05%, global Brent crude oil prices have increased 17.90% in February), electronic goods (18.95%), machinery, electricaland non-electrical goods (23.04%). Gold imports declined by 17% to $2.89 billion in February as against $3.48 billion in the same month last year. Services exports during the month at $16.3 billion outpaced imports of $9.8 billion. Though the trade deficit narrowed to a five-month low in February it was considerably higher than the $9.5 billion in February last year. During April-February period of the current fiscal, exports recorded a growth of 11% to $273.7 billion, while imports grew by 21% to $416.87 billion. The trade deficit was $143.13 billion.
  4. 4. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 4 Contents Page ………… 5 ………… 6 ………… 8 ………… 9 ………… 11 ………… 13 ………… 16 ………… 19 ………… 22 ………… 24 ………… 25 ………… 26 ………… 27 Special Feature—Highlights of RBI’s First Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2018-19 Table of Contents 1. Key Rates to Remember 2. Indian Economy — Growth Indicators 3. Indian Economy — Price Indicators 4. Indian Economy — Banking Indicators 10. Global Economy — Economic Indicators 11. Global Economy — Stock Indices 12. Global Economy — Commodity Indices 5. Indian Economy — Exchange Rates 6. Indian Economy — Interest Rates 7. Indian Economy — Stock Markets 8. Indian Economy — Capital Flows 9. Indian Economy — Commodity Markets www.ecofin-surge.co.in
  5. 5. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 5 For more click: http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/terminology.html 2017-18* 6.6% Jan-18 7.5% 2016-17** 7.1% Jan-17 3.5% As on 31-Mar-18 31-Mar-17 As of week ended 30-Mar-18 31-Mar-17 Repo rate 6.00% 6.25% CRR 4.00% 4.00% Reverse repo rate 5.75% 5.75% TermDeposit>1Yr 6.25-6.75% 6.50-7.00% MSF rate 6.25% 6.75% Base rate 8.65-9.45% 9.25-9.60% CMR 4.90-8.45% 5.00-9.50% 10-YrGSecYld 7.42% 7.00% Inflation CPI-C* CFPI-C* WPI** WPI-Food** Feb-18 4.44% 3.26% 2.48% 0.07% Feb-17 3.65% 2.01% 5.51% ... *Base: 2012=100; **Base: 2011-12=100 Mar-18 64.17 28-Mar-18 65.04 Mar-17 50.90 31-Mar-17 64.84 US$ per barrel RBI Reference rate Nikkei India PMI March BSE Consumer Sentiment Index* Rural Urban All India Manufacturing PMI 51.0 31-Mar-18 95.45 87.71 92.43 Services BAI 50.3 31-Mar-17 96.17 91.53 94.37 *Monthly Average GDP IIP QE; Base : 2011-12=100. Oil Price (World Average) *2nd AE and **1st RE (at 2011-12 prices). US$/INR Rate http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/index.html For explanations click:
  6. 6. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 6 GDP Growth Rates (at 2011-12 prices for IIP & WPI) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY 2017-18 5.7 6.5 7.2 6.6 (2nd AE) 2016-17 7.9 7.5 7.0 6.1 7.1 (1st RE) GVA at Basic Price by Economic Activity 1 Agriculture, forestry & fishing 17,67,397 3.0 17,16,746 6.3 2 Mining & quarrying 3,82,204 3.0 3,71,066 13.0 3 Manufacturing 21,53,147 5.1 20,48,711 7.9 4 Electricity, gas, water supply & other utlility services 2,62,923 7.3 2,44,934 9.2 5 Construction 9,15,878 4.3 8,78,110 1.3 6 Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting 23,13,932 8.3 21,37,102 7.4 7 Financial, real estate & professional services 26,12,670 7.2 24,37,857 6.0 8 Public administration, defence and Other Services 15,56,327 10.1 6,37,056 12.7 9 GVA at basic prices (1 to 8) 119,64,479 6.4 112,47,629 7.1 Estimates of Final Expenditures on GDP 10 Private final consumption 72,24,982 6.1 (55.6) 68,12,334 7.3 (55.9) 11 Government final consumption 14,00,183 10.9 (10.8) 12,62,124 12.2 (10.3) 12 Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) 40,86,592 7.6 (31.4) 37,97,875 10.1 (31.1) 13 Changes in stocks (CIS) 93,883 4.0 (0.7) 90,256 `-61.2 (0.7) 14 Valuables 2,72,240 70.4 (2.1) 1,59,735 `-13.9 (1.3) 15 Exports 25,99,495 4.4 (20.0) 24,89,079 5.0 (20.4) 16 Less (-) Imports 28,71,386 9.9 (22.1) 26,11,628 4.0 (21.4) 17 Discrepancies (GDP less 10 to 16) 1,97,909 `(1.5) 1,96,232 `(1.6) 18 GDP (10 to 17) 130,03,897 6.6 (100.0) 121,96,006 7.1 (100.0) AE: Advance Estimates; PE: Provisional Estimates; RE: Revised Estimates. *Over 1st RE of 2016-17 and **Over 2nd RE of 2015-16. Growth Indicators YoY Growth** (Share in GDP) (%) GDP [at Constant(2011-12) prices] (using the new series of IIP and WPI with base 2011-12 released on 12th May, 2017.) 2017-18 (2nd AE) Rs.Crore YoY Growth* (Share in GDP) (%) 2016-17 (1st RE) Rs. Crore
  7. 7. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 7 1 GVA at basic prices 119,64,479 6.4 112,47,629 7.1 2 Net Taxes 10,39,417 9.6 9,48,376 7.4 3 GDP (1+2) 130,03,897 6.6 121,96,006 7.1 (100.0) 4 Net Domestic Product (GDP less Consumption of Fixed Capital) 115,46,654 6.7 108,26,074 7.0 5 Net factor income from abroad -1,38,436 -1,44,481 6 Gross National Income (4+6) 128,65,461 6.8 120,51,525 7.1 7 Net National Income (GNI less Consumption of Fixed Capital) 114,08,219 6.8 10681594 4 7.0 8 Population (in million) 1,283 1.3 1,299 1.2 9 Per capita GDP (Rs.) 98,814 5.2 93,888 5.8 10 Per capita GNI (Rs.) 97,762 5.4 92,775 5.8 11 Per capita NNI (Rs.) 86,689 5.4 82,229 5.7 12 Per capita PFCE (Rs.) 54,901 4.7 52,443 5.9 AE: Advance Estimates; RE: Revised Estimates. *Over 1st RE of 2016-17 and **Over 2nd RE of 2015-16. Index of Industrial Production Oct-17 Jan-17 FY2017-18* FY2016-17* General Index 122.5 123.1 132.3 7.5 4.1 5.0 1. Mining 100.8 114.4 114.5 0.1 2.5 4.8 2. Manufacturing 123.7 123.1 133.8 8.7 4.3 4.8 3. Electricity 149.8 138.9 149.5 7.6 5.3 6.3 1. Capital goods 97.6 98.8 113.2 14.6 4.4 3.0 2. Primary goods 122.1 122.0 129.1 5.8 3.7 5.3 3. Infrastructure/ Construction goods 132.0 128.7 134.1 6.8 4.4 4.9 4. Consumer durables 119.0 116.7 126.0 8.0 -0.3 4.1 Final indices for October 2017; *April–January. Change (YoY, %) 2016-17 (1st RE) Rs.Crore YoY Growth** (%) GDP [at Constant(2011-12) prices] using the new series of IIP and WPI with base 2011-12 released on 12th May, 2017. 2017-18 (2nd AE) Rs.Crore YoY Growth* (%) Index 2011-12 =100 Jan-18 102.5 101.7 121.0 125.0 141.6 149.7 120.0 123.6 117.5 120.5 101.5 102.5 125 129.7 122.6 122.3 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 2016-17 2017-18 IIP-Annual Averages (Base : 2011-12=100) Mining & Quarrying (14.373) Manufacturing (77.633) Electricity (7.994) General Index (100.0) Primary goods (34.048) Capital goods (8.223) Infrastructure goods (12.338) Consumer durables (12.893)
  8. 8. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 8 Wholesale Price Index (Base: 2011-12=100) (Annual Inflation %) All Commodities 100.00% Primary Articles 22.62% Food Articles 15.26% Non-food Articles 4.12% Fuel&Power 13.15% Manufactured Products 64.23% December-2017 115.8 (3.58) 131.7 (3.72) 144.1 (4.51) 119 (-0.34) 96.5 (8.39) 114 (2.54) January-2018 115.8 (2.84) 129.7 (1.02) 140.6 (0.94) 120.7 (-1.33) 96.9 (5.10) 114.7 (3.13) February-2018 115.8 (2.5) 128 (0.78) 137.8 (0.87) 120.6 (-2.74) 98.1 (3.67)) 115.2 (2.95) Consumer Price Index (Inflation %) All India General Index (All Groups combined) Base 2010=100 Rural Areas (All Groups) Base 2010=100 Urban Areas (All Groups) Base 2010=100 Industrial Workers Base 2001=100 Rural Labourers Base 1986- 87=100 Agricultural Labourers Base 1986- 87=100 December-2017 137.2 (5.21) 139.8 (5.27) 134.1 (5.09) 286 (4.00) 906 (2.84) 900 (2.74) January-2018 136.9 (5.07) 139.3 (5.21) 134.1 (4.93) 288 (5.11) 901 (2.85) 895 (2.87) February-2018 136.4 (4.44) 138.4 (4,37) 134.0 (4.52) 287 (4.74) 896 (2.52) 889 (2.3) Price Indicators Build up of inflation in the financial year so far is 2.30% compared to a build up of 4.92% in the corresponding period of the previous year. 110.2 111.4 111.8 111.1 110.0 109.9 110.1 109.9 109.4 108.0 107.1 107.7 109.0 110.4 111.7 111.8 111.2 111.4 111.5 111.9 111.7 112.6 113.0 113.4 113.2 112.8 112.7 113.9 114.8 114.3 115.5 116.3 115.7 115.8 115.8 100.0 102.0 104.0 106.0 108.0 110.0 112.0 114.0 116.0 118.0 120.0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar WPI (Base 2011-12=100) 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 CPI Inflation –February 2018 Rural Urban Combined Cereals & Pdcts. 2.33 1.51 2.10 Pulses & Pdcts. -17.02 -18.24 -17.35 Oils etc 0.74 1.66 1.09 Meat & Fish 3.90 2.22 3.31 Milk & Pdcts. 3.21 4.79 3.83 Vegetables 19.48 13.89 17.57 Food & Beverages 3.74 2.65 3.38 Fuel & Light 6.83 6.80 6.80 Clothing etc 5.49 4.18 5.00
  9. 9. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 9 March 31, 2017 February 2018 March 2018 Reserve Money : 19,00,480 23,07,200 24,20,250 % change during the month 3.23 4.90 % change since March 31 21.40 27.35 (A) Components of Reserve Money (1+2+3) 1 Currency in circulation 13,35,270 17,90,030 18,30,020 % change during the month 2.90 2.23 % change since March 31 34.06 37.05 2 Banker's deposits with RBI 5,44,130 4,96,340 5,63,630 % change during the month 4.64 13.56 % change since March 31 (8.78) 3.58 3 "Other" deposits with RBI 21,090 20,830 26,600 % change during the month (1.09) 27.70 % change since March 31 (1.23) 26.13 (B) Sources of Reserve Money (4+5+6+7-8) 4 Net RBI credit to Government 6,20,810 4,46,030 4,65,550 % change during the month 1.20 4.38 % change since March 31 (28.15) (25.01) 5 RBI credit to Banks & Commercial Sector (3,09,280) (1,350) 67,630 % change during the month (97.44) (5,109.63) % change since March 31 (99.56) (121.87) 5.1 RBI credit to banks(including NABARD) (3,16,570) (10,140) 53,600 % change during the month (83.10) (628.60) % change since March 31 (96.80) (116.93) 5.2 RBI credit to Commercial Sector 7,290 8,790 14,030 % change during the month 19.59 59.61 % change since March 31 20.58 92.46 6 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of RBI 23,97,210 27,43,610 27,59,680 % change during the month 1.53 0.59 % change since March 31 14.45 15.12 7 Govt's Currency Liabilities to the Public 25,090 25,600 25,600 % change during the month - - % change since March 31 2.03 2.03 8 Net Non-monetary Liabilities of RBI 8,33,350 9,06,690 8,98,200 % change during the month 2.92 (0.94) % change since March 31 8.80 7.78 Note: (i) Figures in parentheses denote negative numbers. Banking Indicators COMPONENTS & SOURCES OF RESERVE MONEY AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs. crore)
  10. 10. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 10 March 31, 2017 February 2018 March 2018* M3 128,44,390 136,77,570 136,83,750 % change during the month 0.96 0.05 % change since March 31 6.49 6.53 (A) Components of M3 ( 1+2+3+4) 1 Currency with the public 12,63,710 17,19,890 17,52,850 % change during the month 3.11 1.92 % change since March 31 36.10 38.71 2 Demand deposits with banks 14,10,630 12,82,560 12,96,870 % change during the month 1.63 1.12 % change since March 31 (9.08) (8.06) 3 Time deposits with banks 101,48,950 106,54,290 106,13,050 % change during the month 0.55 (0.39) % change since March 31 4.98 4.57 4 Other deposits with RBI 21,090 20,830 20,980 % change during the month (1.09) 0.72 % change since March 31 (1.23) (0.52) (B) Sources of M3 (5+6+7+8-9) 5 Net bank credit to govt.(i+ii) 38,69,090 40,70,360 40,03,680 % change during the month 0.01 (1.64) % change since March 31 5.20 3.48 i RBI's credit 6,20,810 4,46,030 4,49,300 % change during the month 1.20 0.73 % change since March 31 (28.15) (27.63) ii Other banks' credit 32,48,280 36,24,330 35,54,370 % change during the month (0.13) (1.93) % change since March 31 11.58 9.42 6 Bank credit to commercial sector (i+ii) 84,51,430 89,28,000 89,59,510 % change during the month 1.00 0.35 % change since March 31 5.64 6.01 i RBI's credit 7,290 8,790 9,190 % change during the month 19.59 4.55 % change since March 31 20.58 26.06 ii Other banks' credit 84,44,140 89,19,220 89,50,330 % change during the month 0.99 0.35 % change since March 31 5.63 5.99 7 Net foreign exchange assets of the banking sector 24,92,010 28,71,240 28,60,900 % change during the month 1.46 (0.36) % change since March 31 15.22 14.80 8 Government's currency liabilities to the public 25,090 25,600 25,600 % change during the month - 0.0 % change since March 31 2.03 2.0 9 NNML of the banking sector (i+ii) 19,93,230 22,17,620 21,65,940 % change during the month (0.01) (2.33) % change since March 31 11.26 8.66 i RBI's NNML 8,33,350 9,06,690 8,95,400 % change during the month 2.92 (1.25) % change since March 31 8.80 7.45 ii Other bank's NNML(Residual) 11,59,880 13,10,930 12,70,540 % change during the month (1.94) (3.08) % change since March 31 13.02 9.54 COMPONENTS & SOURCES OF MONEY STOCK (M3) AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs. crores) Note: Figures in parentheses denote negative numbers. *: Data are of 16 March, 2018.
  11. 11. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 11 Date Day Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1-Mar-18 Thu 65.19 65.47 65.92 66.52 79.44 79.87 80.70 81.90 2-Mar-18 Fri na na 5-Mar-18 Mon 65.12 65.43 65.87 66.47 80.11 80.58 81.40 82.60 6-Mar-18 Tue 64.97 65.25 65.69 66.30 80.49 80.93 81.75 82.98 7-Mar-18 Wed 64.90 65.19 65.66 66.25 80.61 81.07 81.94 83.16 8-Mar-18 Thu 65.16 65.47 65.93 66.54 80.60 81.07 81.93 83.17 9-Mar-18 Fri 65.18 65.49 65.96 66.58 80.18 80.65 81.50 82.75 12-Mar-18 Mon na na 13-Mar-18 Tue na na 14-Mar-18 Wed 64.84 65.15 65.61 66.20 80.26 80.75 81.62 82.85 15-Mar-18 Thu 64.95 65.27 65.73 66.35 80.22 80.72 81.58 82.84 16-Mar-18 Fri 64.95 65.27 65.74 66.37 80.01 80.50 81.36 82.63 19-Mar-18 Mon 65.19 65.27 65.74 66.37 80.27 80.50 81.36 82.63 20-Mar-18 Tue 65.21 65.56 66.01 66.64 80.25 80.78 81.62 82.89 21-Mar-18 Wed 65.22 65.56 66.03 66.63 80.05 80.54 81.40 82.63 22-Mar-18 Thu 65.12 65.45 65.89 66.49 80.26 80.74 81.57 82.79 23-Mar-18 Fri 65.02 65.36 65.80 66.41 80.26 80.76 81.59 82.82 26-Mar-18 Mon 64.88 65.22 65.68 66.29 80.54 81.05 81.90 83.14 27-Mar-18 Tue 64.99 65.27 65.72 66.38 80.62 81.04 81.88 83.19 28-Mar-18 Wed 65.19 65.47 65.93 66.59 80.82 81.23 82.08 83.40 29-Mar-18 Thu na na 30-Mar-18 Fri na na Date Day Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1-Mar-18 Thu 89.60 90.04 90.85 91.96 61.11 61.45 62.07 62.97 2-Mar-18 Fri na na 5-Mar-18 Mon 89.99 90.48 91.27 92.38 61.65 62.02 62.62 63.52 6-Mar-18 Tue 90.23 90.69 91.47 92.62 61.11 61.47 62.07 62.98 7-Mar-18 Wed 89.95 90.41 91.25 92.37 61.41 61.76 62.41 63.31 8-Mar-18 Thu 90.29 90.78 91.61 92.75 61.38 61.76 62.39 63.30 9-Mar-18 Fri 90.09 90.57 91.40 92.56 61.05 61.42 62.05 62.96 12-Mar-18 Mon na na 13-Mar-18 Tue na na 14-Mar-18 Wed 90.61 91.11 91.96 93.09 60.91 61.28 61.92 62.82 15-Mar-18 Thu 90.49 91.01 91.84 93.01 61.27 61.66 62.29 63.23 16-Mar-18 Fri 90.67 91.19 92.02 93.22 61.47 61.85 62.50 63.44 19-Mar-18 Mon 91.67 91.19 92.02 93.22 61.36 61.85 62.50 63.44 20-Mar-18 Tue 91.40 91.96 92.78 93.97 61.24 61.65 62.27 63.21 21-Mar-18 Wed 91.63 92.15 92.99 94.14 61.38 61.78 62.41 63.32 22-Mar-18 Thu 92.21 92.73 93.53 94.67 61.65 62.03 62.64 63.55 23-Mar-18 Fri 91.79 92.32 93.11 94.27 61.94 62.33 62.94 63.86 26-Mar-18 Mon 92.32 92.87 93.69 94.85 61.74 62.14 62.76 63.70 27-Mar-18 Tue 91.70 92.14 92.95 94.17 61.46 61.78 62.40 63.37 28-Mar-18 Wed 92.22 92.66 93.48 94.72 61.41 61.73 62.34 63.31 29-Mar-18 Thu na na 30-Mar-18 Fri na na Exchange Rates Movement of the Rupee (INR) (Average of Buying & Selling Rates) Dollar Euro Pound Yen
  12. 12. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 12 Euro Date Day 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1-Mar-18 Thu 5.28 4.56 4.12 6.69 6.50 6.30 2-Mar-18 Fri na na 5-Mar-18 Mon 5.77 4.66 4.17 7.27 6.60 6.33 6-Mar-18 Tue 5.30 4.51 4.14 6.84 6.41 6.30 7-Mar-18 Wed 5.50 4.77 4.20 7.07 6.74 6.41 8-Mar-18 Thu 5.86 4.81 4.28 7.31 6.77 6.48 9-Mar-18 Fri 5.76 4.84 4.33 7.27 6.78 6.51 12-Mar-18 Mon na na 13-Mar-18 Tue na na 14-Mar-18 Wed 5.89 4.84 4.26 7.58 6.95 6.56 15-Mar-18 Thu 6.17 4.89 4.37 7.74 6.96 6.64 16-Mar-18 Fri 6.08 4.96 4.42 7.60 6.92 6.66 19-Mar-18 Mon 1.48 3.42 3.65 3.49 5.54 5.97 20-Mar-18 Tue 6.63 5.00 4.43 8.14 6.98 6.67 21-Mar-18 Wed 6.34 5.03 4.35 7.68 6.92 6.55 22-Mar-18 Thu 6.25 4.81 4.25 7.50 6.69 6.42 23-Mar-18 Fri 6.36 4.85 4.31 7.82 6.80 6.49 26-Mar-18 Mon 6.47 4.99 4.38 7.87 6.90 6.56 27-Mar-18 Tue 5.20 4.54 4.31 6.51 6.40 6.49 28-Mar-18 Wed 5.28 4.62 4.34 6.34 6.41 6.50 29-Mar-18 Thu na na 30-Mar-18 Fri na na Date Day 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1-Mar-18 Thu 6.05 5.70 5.34 6.89 6.43 6.18 2-Mar-18 Fri na na 5-Mar-18 Mon 6.73 5.81 5.39 7.45 6.48 6.18 6-Mar-18 Tue 6.29 5.63 5.37 7.20 6.40 6.20 7-Mar-18 Wed 6.31 5.93 5.45 7.06 6.67 6.27 8-Mar-18 Thu 6.71 5.95 5.52 7.69 6.71 6.34 9-Mar-18 Fri 6.66 5.97 5.56 7.52 6.71 6.36 12-Mar-18 Mon na na 13-Mar-18 Tue na na 14-Mar-18 Wed 6.83 6.09 5.55 7.54 6.77 6.35 15-Mar-18 Thu 7.12 6.13 5.66 7.91 6.83 6.48 16-Mar-18 Fri 7.10 6.11 5.70 7.78 6.87 6.51 19-Mar-18 Mon -6.17 1.54 3.40 10.02 7.61 6.88 20-Mar-18 Tue 7.53 6.15 5.69 8.23 6.90 6.54 21-Mar-18 Wed 7.10 6.09 5.55 8.00 6.88 6.42 22-Mar-18 Thu 7.05 5.87 5.41 7.76 6.61 6.28 23-Mar-18 Fri 7.15 5.88 5.47 7.82 6.65 6.31 26-Mar-18 Mon 7.39 6.09 5.57 7.95 6.77 6.43 27-Mar-18 Tue 5.84 5.54 5.46 6.53 6.26 6.33 28-Mar-18 Wed 5.88 5.58 5.48 6.54 6.23 6.28 29-Mar-18 Thu na na 30-Mar-18 Fri na na Pound Yen Dollar Annualised Forward Premia
  13. 13. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 13 RBI LAF Net Injection(+)/ Absorption(-) of Liquidity (Rs. billion)* Repo Rates (Repo/Reverse Repo) Over- night Rates (%) Call Money** CBLO** Mibor USD Libor 01-Mar-18 -206.9 6.00/5.75 5.56 5.75 6.05 1.446 02-Mar-18 -114.3 5.69 5.96 05-Mar-18 -446.6 5.88 5.75 6.05 1.448 06-Mar-18 66.3 5.87 5.75 6.00 1.448 07-Mar-18 -412.0 5.89 5.85 6.00 1.447 08-Mar-18 -201.0 5.88 5.86 6.00 1.447 09-Mar-18 -205.4 5.89 5.85 6.00 1.447 12-Mar-18 -461.6 5.86 5.77 6.00 1.447 13-Mar-18 -516.9 5.86 5.73 6.00 1.445 14-Mar-18 -626.3 5.83 5.73 5.95 1.445 15-Mar-18 -480.3 5.91 5.85 6.00 1.445 16-Mar-18 4.4 5.66 5.65 6.00 1.445 17-Mar-18 5.61 5.88 19-Mar-18 -202.4 5.91 5.96 6.04 1.446 20-Mar-18 -100.3 5.92 5.83 6.00 1.448 21-Mar-18 -562.4 5.94 5.95 6.04 1.448 22-Mar-18 -460.6 5.93 5.88 6.05 1.449 23-Mar-18 -242.1 5.93 5.82 6.05 1.698 26-Mar-18 -399.0 5.98 5.80 6.05 1.698 27-Mar-18 -437.7 6.00 5.91 6.05 1.698 28-Mar-18 -371.1 6.04 4.60 6.05 0.477 29-Mar-18 -695.6 1.698 31-Mar-18 6.00/5.75 6.14 *Includes liquidity provided under MSF at 6.25%; **Weighted average rates. Money Market Rates & Liquidity Interest Rates 1.436 1.486 1.536 1.586 1.636 1.686 5.55 5.65 5.75 5.85 5.95 6.05 6.15 1-Mar-18 2-Mar-18 3-Mar-18 4-Mar-18 5-Mar-18 6-Mar-18 7-Mar-18 8-Mar-18 9-Mar-18 10-Mar-18 11-Mar-18 12-Mar-18 13-Mar-18 14-Mar-18 15-Mar-18 16-Mar-18 17-Mar-18 18-Mar-18 19-Mar-18 20-Mar-18 21-Mar-18 22-Mar-18 23-Mar-18 24-Mar-18 25-Mar-18 26-Mar-18 27-Mar-18 28-Mar-18 29-Mar-18 30-Mar-18 31-Mar-18 Repo ReverseRepo Call Money Mibor USD Libor
  14. 14. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 14 On Developing Constant Maturity Yield Curves for India: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=300052 Date 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year >10 Year & <=15 Year >15 Year & <= 20 Year >20 Year 1-Mar-18 6.32 6.47 6.67 6.93 7.17 7.48 7.48 7.78 7.87 7.95 7.93 2-Mar-18 5-Mar-18 6.30 6.63 6.94 7.17 7.49 7.53 7.76 7.87 8.01 8.04 8.02 6-Mar-18 6.28 6.47 6.62 6.97 7.18 7.48 7.49 7.75 7.89 7.97 8.03 8.04 7-Mar-18 6.27 6.47 6.64 6.96 7.18 7.42 7.49 7.71 7.72 7.92 8.01 7.97 8-Mar-18 6.45 6.62 6.93 7.18 7.41 7.48 7.67 7.67 7.88 7.96 7.91 9-Mar-18 6.22 6.43 6.61 6.94 7.18 7.41 7.50 7.70 7.68 7.92 8.00 7.93 12-Mar-18 6.20 6.60 6.94 7.17 7.39 7.47 7.74 7.65 7.97 7.96 7.90 13-Mar-18 6.18 6.54 6.94 7.21 7.42 7.47 7.68 7.63 7.96 7.95 14-Mar-18 6.19 6.49 6.56 6.95 7.22 7.43 7.51 7.70 7.79 7.98 7.96 7.95 15-Mar-18 6.14 6.42 6.50 6.90 7.18 7.42 7.49 7.75 7.80 7.90 7.95 16-Mar-18 6.13 6.37 6.44 6.86 7.13 7.35 7.44 7.69 7.75 7.92 7.92 19-Mar-18 6.13 6.43 6.85 7.15 7.35 7.43 7.61 7.57 7.83 7.89 7.90 20-Mar-18 6.11 6.52 6.88 7.18 7.36 7.41 7.61 7.61 7.82 7.89 7.90 21-Mar-18 6.13 6.40 6.49 6.89 7.17 7.34 7.46 7.68 7.63 7.88 7.92 7.90 22-Mar-18 6.13 6.40 6.49 6.88 7.17 7.37 7.47 7.66 7.58 7.86 7.89 7.90 23-Mar-18 6.42 6.50 6.88 7.15 7.37 7.47 7.66 7.54 7.86 7.84 7.88 26-Mar-18 6.14 6.48 6.46 6.89 7.18 7.40 7.54 7.70 7.60 7.84 7.93 27-Mar-18 6.11 6.37 6.46 6.83 7.09 7.27 7.37 7.51 7.49 7.66 7.71 7.74 28-Mar-18 6.09 6.37 6.81 7.07 7.25 7.36 7.50 7.46 7.61 7.73 7.67 March-2018 6.18 6.43 6.55 6.90 7.16 7.39 7.47 7.68 7.67 7.88 7.92 7.91 Constant Maturity Yields for Government Bonds—March 2018 Debt Market Yields Constant Maturity Yields relates the yield on a security to its time to maturity. The usual practice worldwide is to provide yields of traded bonds for finely defined residual maturity brackets. The monthly CMYs given here provide information on (Indian government) bond yields for several chosen residual maturities, like 3 & 6 months, 1/2/5/10/12/15 years. Say, the market determined YTMs for all traded Gilts with 340 to 380 days left to mature would give the CMY for the 1 year maturity bracket. The monthly CMYs are estimated from marketwide data. For the estimation methodology see:
  15. 15. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 15 Debt Market Yields 6.63 6.34 6.50 6.61 6.63 6.70 6.84 6.91 6.94 6.94 7.05 7.18 7.19 7.26 7.36 7.43 7.42 7.41 7.42 7.40 7.49 7.52 7.62 7.53 7.61 7.70 7.67 7.71 7.85 7.88 7.83 7.83 7.82 7.80 7.86 7.62 7.87 7.92 7.66 7.94 7.90 7.76 7.87 7.86 7.89 7.93 7.92 7.92 7.85 7.85 7.92 6.30 6.80 7.30 7.80 8.30 April2018 April2018 September2018 February2019 June2019 July2019 January2020 January2020 May2020 June2020 December2020 April2021 May2021 November2021 February2022 May2022 June2022 August2022 September2022 December2022 May2023 June2023 November2023 December2023 June2024 July2024 May2025 September2025 January2026 July2026 September2026 November2026 February2027 May2027 August2027 January2028 June2028 March2029 December2029 March2030 May2030 December2030 September2031 February2032 August2032 November2033 December2033 December2034 July2040 December2043 December2044 WeightedAverageYTMs Maturity Year Yieldsof G-Secs Traded in March 2018 7.40 7.40 7.45 7.52 8.00 7.69 7.56 7.87 8.04 7.83 7.57 7.83 8.19 7.62 7.99 8.38 8.25 8.61 8.11 7.60 7.91 7.76 7.81 8.33 7.73 7.74 8.16 7.79 8.17 8.45 7.89 8.00 9.85 7.93 7.97 7.87 6.21 8.03 8.44 8.89 8.84 8.53 11.308.34 10.45 8.40 8.21 8.29 8.05 8.29 8.64 8.18 9.87 8.17 8.21 8.68 8.31 8.47 9.10 8.28 8.66 8.57 9.15 8.79 8.83 8.51 8.48 8.20 8.60 8.19 8.28 8.64 8.99 7.90 8.31 8.17 8.59 8.70 6.19 8.35 8.12 8.26 6.13 6.19 6.21 6.20 7.91 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 June2018 June2018 July2018 July2018 August2018 October2018 November2018 December2018 December2018 January2019 January2019 April2019 May2019 May2019 June2019 July2019 September2019 September2019 September2019 March2020 May2020 June2020 August2020 September2020 September2020 September2020 November2020 April2021 July2021 September2021 October2021 March2022 April2022 August2022 September2022 October2022 February2023 March2023 June2023 September2023 September2023 February2024 June2024 June2024 June2024 August2024 August2024 August2024 September2024 September2024 September2024 October2024 December2024 December2024 January2025 February2025 August2025 November2025 May2026 May2026 June2026 July2026 July2026 August2026 August2026 September2026 September2026 November2026 November2026 March2027 May2027 May2027 June2027 June2027 June2027 June2027 September2027 October2027 August2028 September2029 May2030 May2030 January2031 March2031 March2031 March2031 December2031 WeightedAverageYTM MaturityYear Yields of CorporateBonds(AAA)Traded in March 2018
  16. 16. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 16 Month/ Year No of Companies Listed* No. of Securities Traded* Turnover (Rs.cr) Average Daily Turnover (Rs.cr) Market Capitalisation (Rs.cr)* Month High Month Low Month- Closing P/E P/B Dividend Yield Dec-17 5616 3150 95689.4 4784.5 15173866.9 34138.0 32565.2 34056.8 24.67 3.05 1.16 Jan-18 5613 3158 122537.5 5569.9 15320977.7 36444.0 33703.4 35965.0 25.69 3.22 1.10 Feb-18 5637 3029 81758.2 4303.1 14765583.2 36256.8 33482.8 34184.0 24.04 3.18 1.15 Month/ Year No of Companies Listed* No. of Securities Traded* Turnover (Rs.cr) Average Daily Turnover (Rs.cr) Market Capitalisation (Rs.cr)* Month High Month Low Month- Closing P/E P/B Dividend Yield Dec-17 1897 2118 598032.0 29902.0 14982296.0 10552.4 10033.4 10530.7 26.42 3.48 1.10 Jan-18 1906 2165 814839.0 37038.0 15140453.0 11171.6 10404.7 11027.7 27.24 3.63 1.05 Feb-18 1916 2300 639682.6 33667.5 14564090.8 11117.4 10276.3 10492.9 25.61 3.56 1.08 *End of the Month. No. of contracts Turnover (Rs. cr.) No. of contracts Turnover (Rs. cr.) No. of contracts Notional Turnover (Rs. cr.) No. of contracts Notional Turnover (Rs. cr.) No. of contracts Turnover (Rs. cr.) Dec-17 19 1.4 19 1.4 0.07 Jan-18 62 4.3 62 4.3 0.20 Feb-18 40 2.8 40 2.8 0.13 No. of contracts Turnover (Rs. cr.) No. of contracts Turnover (Rs. cr.) No. of contracts Notional Turnover (Rs. cr.) No. of contracts Notional Turnover (Rs. cr.) No. of contracts Turnover (Rs. cr.) Dec-17 4769247 406555.8 17181163 1244069.0 123101774 11318350 9862509 738175.5 154914693 13707150.3 685357.5 Jan-18 5031029 450375.5 21968814 1698946.5 134189456 12768507 13536102 1091950.0 174725401 16009779.0 727717.2 Feb-18 6420118 556256.2 19092878 1354151.7 143940748 13288804 10981511 827405.9 180435255 16026617.6 843506.2 Stock Options Total Average Daily Turnover (Rs. cr.) STOCK MARKETS Equity Market Turnover S&P BSE Sensex (30 Scrips) (1978-79=100)BSE Equity Market Total Average Daily Turnover (Rs. cr.) CNX Nifty (50 Scrips)(Nov.3, 1993=100)NSE Capital Market Segment BSE Derivatives (F&O) Trades NSE Derivatives (F&O) Segment Month/ Year Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options Derivatives Turnover Month/ Year Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options
  17. 17. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 17 Open High Low Close Price/Earnings Price/Bookvalue Dividend Yield 01-Mar-18 34141.2 34278.6 34015.8 34046.9 23.61 3.14 1.16 05-Mar-18 34034.3 34034.3 33653.4 33746.8 23.34 3.10 1.16 06-Mar-18 34047.4 34060.1 33209.8 33317.2 23.06 3.06 1.18 07-Mar-18 33279.4 33331.2 32991.1 33033.1 22.89 3.04 1.19 08-Mar-18 33244.5 33440.0 33037.5 33351.6 23.07 3.06 1.18 09-Mar-18 33465.1 33519.5 33256.4 33307.1 22.91 3.04 1.18 12-Mar-18 33468.2 33962.5 33468.2 33917.9 23.42 3.11 1.16 13-Mar-18 33818.2 34077.3 33723.0 33856.8 23.39 3.11 1.16 14-Mar-18 33733.6 33875.2 33580.7 33835.7 23.40 3.11 1.16 15-Mar-18 33843.5 33866.3 33637.3 33685.5 23.30 3.09 1.16 16-Mar-18 33685.9 33691.3 33119.9 33176.0 22.93 3.04 1.18 19-Mar-18 33269.0 33275.8 32856.5 32923.1 22.71 3.01 1.19 20-Mar-18 32876.5 33102.7 32810.9 32996.8 22.72 3.02 1.19 21-Mar-18 33090.8 33354.9 33070.5 33136.2 22.80 3.03 1.19 22-Mar-18 33207.0 33281.8 32963.3 33006.3 22.76 3.02 1.19 23-Mar-18 32650.9 32720.0 32483.8 32596.5 22.50 2.99 1.20 26-Mar-18 32536.4 33115.4 32515.2 33066.4 22.87 3.04 1.17 27-Mar-18 33173.0 33371.0 33077.1 33174.4 22.93 3.04 1.17 28-Mar-18 33098.1 33104.1 32917.7 32968.7 22.66 3.01 1.18 Open High Low Close Price/Earnings Price/Bookvalue Dividend Yield 01-Mar-18 10480.0 10525.5 10447.2 10458.4 25.59 3.53 1.19 05-Mar-18 10428.3 10428.7 10323.9 10358.9 25.40 3.50 1.20 06-Mar-18 10420.5 10441.4 10215.9 10249.3 25.02 3.46 1.21 07-Mar-18 10233.0 10243.4 10141.6 10154.2 24.79 3.43 1.28 08-Mar-18 10216.3 10270.4 10146.4 10242.7 25.00 3.46 1.27 09-Mar-18 10271.3 10296.7 10211.9 10226.9 24.97 3.45 1.28 12-Mar-18 10301.6 10433.7 10295.5 10421.4 25.44 3.52 1.25 13-Mar-18 10389.5 10478.6 10377.9 10426.9 25.45 3.52 1.25 14-Mar-18 10393.1 10420.4 10336.3 10410.9 25.41 3.52 1.25 15-Mar-18 10405.5 10420.0 10346.2 10360.2 25.28 3.50 1.26 16-Mar-18 10345.2 10346.3 10180.3 10195.2 24.87 3.44 1.28 19-Mar-18 10215.4 10224.6 10075.3 10094.3 24.61 3.41 1.29 20-Mar-18 10051.6 10155.7 10049.1 10124.4 24.69 3.42 1.29 21-Mar-18 10182.0 10227.3 10133.0 10155.3 24.76 3.43 1.28 22-Mar-18 10167.5 10207.9 10105.4 10114.8 24.67 3.42 1.29 23-Mar-18 9968.8 10027.7 9951.9 9998.1 24.38 3.38 1.30 26-Mar-18 9989.2 10143.5 9958.6 10130.7 24.70 3.42 1.29 27-Mar-18 10188.0 10207.9 10139.7 10184.2 24.83 3.44 1.28 28-Mar-18 10143.6 10158.4 10096.9 10113.7 24.66 3.42 1.29 Index Movements BSE: S&P BSE Sensex (30 Scrips) (1978-79=100) NSE: Nifty (50 Scrips) (Nov.3, 1993=100)
  18. 18. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 18 9950 10050 10150 10250 10350 10450 10550 32400 32600 32800 33000 33200 33400 33600 33800 34000 34200 34400 01-Mar-18 05-Mar-18 06-Mar-18 07-Mar-18 08-Mar-18 09-Mar-18 12-Mar-18 13-Mar-18 14-Mar-18 15-Mar-18 16-Mar-18 19-Mar-18 20-Mar-18 21-Mar-18 22-Mar-18 23-Mar-18 26-Mar-18 27-Mar-18 28-Mar-18 Sensex High Low Nifty High Low FUTIDX-NIFTY Futures (Expiry 28 March 2018) Open High Low Close No. of Contracts Turnover ('00,000) Change in OI 01-Mar-18 10498.0 10530.0 10439.2 10456.6 128141 1008046 1108875 05-Mar-18 10369.9 10394.9 10320.0 10365.6 163559 1270557 699525 06-Mar-18 10404.2 10437.0 10223.0 10248.6 186130 1444620 1175700 07-Mar-18 10200.0 10254.0 10155.0 10171.6 198900 1521895 -504975 08-Mar-18 10217.9 10277.0 10155.8 10243.0 184511 1413198 -739350 09-Mar-18 10270.7 10300.0 10193.4 10216.5 149319 1148333 -190650 12-Mar-18 10331.2 10443.4 10295.2 10432.8 187584 1457988 -249825 13-Mar-18 10401.3 10490.0 10374.5 10426.4 193274 1513077 -439875 14-Mar-18 10391.4 10438.0 10342.1 10425.4 150514 1172935 71850 15-Mar-18 10396.9 10429.3 10359.1 10372.3 111358 868157 672600 16-Mar-18 10344.0 10344.0 10197.0 10232.5 212317 1635277 887175 19-Mar-18 10230.0 10236.0 10102.0 10122.8 189024 1439955 -750825 20-Mar-18 10094.0 10185.0 10078.3 10143.2 169571 1289387 79650 21-Mar-18 10188.9 10266.0 10148.0 10180.2 173630 1328735 -180900 22-Mar-18 10195.9 10237.9 10110.0 10127.9 167097 1273808 -75975 23-Mar-18 9999.6 10043.9 9960.0 10003.9 196128 1470698 -654675 26-Mar-18 9989.9 10161.3 9976.4 10146.2 235039 1773171 -5407275 27-Mar-18 10190.7 10210.9 10147.0 10179.0 172547 1317355 -3438375 28-Mar-18 10135.1 10159.7 10105.8 10120.3 185310 1407587 -3815850
  19. 19. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 19 Capital Flows Equity/Trading Date Gross Purchases (Rs Crores) Gross Sales (Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) 01-Mar-18 2415.7 2578.2 -162.5 05-Mar-18 2298.0 2473.8 -175.8 06-Mar-18 2281.3 2733.1 -451.8 07-Mar-18 3061.1 2885.1 176.0 08-Mar-18 3168.6 2594.2 574.4 09-Mar-18 2024.9 2166.6 -141.8 12-Mar-18 2202.2 2475.1 -273.0 13-Mar-18 5852.9 2611.8 3241.1 14-Mar-18 2170.4 2266.6 -96.1 15-Mar-18 2504.8 2032.7 472.0 16-Mar-18 3363.1 4438.9 -1075.7 19-Mar-18 3076.9 2940.2 136.6 20-Mar-18 2658.0 1770.8 887.2 21-Mar-18 2514.5 2367.0 147.5 22-Mar-18 2522.1 2091.2 430.9 23-Mar-18 2907.4 3887.9 -980.5 26-Mar-18 5711.5 3117.0 2594.5 27-Mar-18 4202.9 1967.5 2235.4 28-Mar-18 7646.1 5929.0 1717.1 Total for March 62582.22 53326.71 9255.51 Debt/ Trading Date Gross Purchases (Rs Crores) Gross Sales (Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) 01-Mar-18 11006.6 7694.1 3312.5 05-Mar-18 7990.7 7413.9 576.8 06-Mar-18 7943.8 6375.3 1568.5 07-Mar-18 10391.7 9108.8 1283.0 08-Mar-18 11971.7 14011.6 -2039.9 09-Mar-18 17749.1 12039.5 5709.7 12-Mar-18 8118.5 7294.9 823.6 13-Mar-18 10648.2 9508.5 1139.8 14-Mar-18 9046.9 8393.4 653.5 15-Mar-18 12741.7 10685.7 2056.0 16-Mar-18 11937.5 9111.3 2826.3 19-Mar-18 12364.5 10513.0 1851.5 20-Mar-18 9896.2 9181.5 714.7 21-Mar-18 13803.2 11682.3 2120.9 22-Mar-18 10735.0 9132.3 1602.7 23-Mar-18 12747.2 10311.3 2435.9 26-Mar-18 15683.4 11849.3 3834.2 27-Mar-18 23068.5 13947.7 9120.8 28-Mar-18 18888.7 20501.6 -1612.9 Total for March 236733.12 198755.61 37977.51 Mutual Funds Investment Trends
  20. 20. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 20 Mutual Funds' Asset Position (Rs. Crore) April 1, 2017 to March 31, 2018 Private Sector Mutual Funds Public Sector Mutual Funds (of which) UTI Total 17,65,740.5 3,70,295.3 1,35,957.2 21,36,035.8 82.66% 17.34% 6.36% 100.00% Cumulative Position of Net Assets as on March 31, 2018 209,98,652.0 Net Inflow/ Outflow (-ve) of funds Mobilisation of Funds 173,82,188.9 36,16,463.0 18,37,933.7 -1,261.0 2,71,796.62,28,470.8 43,325.8 ECB (& FCCB) Jan-18 Feb-18 Automatic Route 4604,74,554 2,057,214,208 Approval Route 799,90,000 2673,98,372 Total ECB 5404,64,554 2,324,612,580 Value in US$. 01-Mar-18 1014.6 2760.69 -1746.09 -268.2 05-Mar-18 1071.83 2190.16 -1118.33 -171.5 06-Mar-18 516.62 267.81 248.81 38.2 07-Mar-18 592.17 771.22 -179.05 -27.6 08-Mar-18 816.25 1015.54 -199.29 -30.7 09-Mar-18 462.1 2264.07 -1801.97 -277.6 12-Mar-18 770.24 3163.55 -2393.31 -367.8 13-Mar-18 955.6 2406.9 -1451.3 -223.2 14-Mar-18 512.77 1336.15 -823.38 -126.8 15-Mar-18 2552.62 1798.24 754.38 116.1 16-Mar-18 2025.91 3944.29 -1918.38 -295.4 19-Mar-18 1991.42 2558.92 -567.5 -87.5 20-Mar-18 1369.7 759.53 610.17 93.8 21-Mar-18 1687.19 1112.59 574.6 88.1 22-Mar-18 2139.83 1238.39 901.44 138.2 23-Mar-18 1115.2 1999.46 -884.26 -135.9 26-Mar-18 1615.83 1301.75 314.08 48.2 27-Mar-18 1970.74 1984.57 -13.83 -2.1 28-Mar-18 2326.84 1677.54 649.3 100.2 Total for March 25507.46 34551.37 -9043.91 -1391.19 Total for 2018 82642.29 83417.13 -774.84 -83.55 Debt/Reporting Date Gross Purchases (Rs Crores) Gross Sales (Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) Net Investment US$ million FPI Investments in Primary & Secondary Markets
  21. 21. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 21 01-Mar-18 8756.4 10474.6 -1718.1 -263.9 05-Mar-18 5684.0 5260.2 423.8 65.0 06-Mar-18 6148.4 6492.7 -344.3 -52.9 07-Mar-18 5929.3 5180.1 749.2 115.3 08-Mar-18 4870.3 5475.1 -604.8 -93.1 09-Mar-18 6795.5 5635.0 1160.5 178.8 12-Mar-18 4598.7 3990.8 608.0 93.4 13-Mar-18 5339.4 3925.9 1413.4 217.4 14-Mar-18 9122.7 4188.0 4934.7 759.7 15-Mar-18 4305.9 4355.6 -49.6 -7.6 16-Mar-18 4752.8 4945.6 -192.8 -29.7 19-Mar-18 15233.4 14182.1 1051.3 162.1 20-Mar-18 4461.1 3947.7 513.4 78.9 21-Mar-18 5185.6 4692.0 493.6 75.7 22-Mar-18 5561.0 5631.5 -70.5 -10.8 23-Mar-18 5230.3 5158.1 72.3 11.1 26-Mar-18 8219.8 5589.0 2630.8 403.9 27-Mar-18 4426.3 4936.8 -510.5 -78.6 28-Mar-18 6242.8 5148.9 1093.9 168.8 Total for March 120863.7 109209.4 11654.3 1793.3 Total for 2018 360497.2 346098.5 14398.7 2248.6 Equity/Reporting Date Gross Purchases (Rs Crores) Gross Sales (Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) Net Investment US$ Million -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1-Mar-18 8-Mar-18 15-Mar-18 22-Mar-18 -1,718.1 423.8 -344.3 749.2 -604.8 1,160.5 608.0 1,413.4 4,934.7 -49.6 -192.8 1,051.3 513.4 493.6 -70.5 72.3 2,630.8 -510.5 1,093.9 -162.5 -175.8 -451.8 176.0 574.4 -141.8 -273.0 3241.1 -96.1 472.0 -1075.7 136.6 887.2 147.5 430.9 -980.5 2594.5 2235.4 1717.1 NetFlows(Rs.Cr.) FPI Equity MF Equity Foreign Investment 2016-17* 2017-18* Jan-18 Feb-18 Foreign Investment Inflows 39,265.0 37,693.0 2,318.0 4,538.0 Net Direct Investments 35,680.0 29,645.0 1,913.0 4,007.0 Net Portfolio Inflows –1324 20,969.0 3,499.0 -2,369.0 US$ million; *April-February.
  22. 22. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 22 Turnover (Rs. Crore) Corporate Bonds-NSE Corporate Bonds-BSE Currency Derivatives - NSE Currency Derivatives- BSE Interest rate Derivatives- NSE Interest rate Derivatives- BSE Commodity Dervatives- MCX Commodity Dervatives- NCDEX Jan-18 94,875 45,963 4,81,163 5,40,691 32,065 16,608 4,93,563 69,722 Feb-18 84,030 38,639 5,06,671 4,21,034 23,711 23,671 4,97,065 57,194 Date Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot 01-Mar-18 3361.0 3186.4 1725.0 1781.4 761.6 747.6 3985.0 4013.0 30165.0 30269.0 02-Mar-18 3999.0 3978.0 30448.0 30269.0 05-Mar-18 3361.0 3192.3 1759.0 1800.0 787.6 770.4 4077.0 3995.0 30352.0 30488.0 06-Mar-18 3361.0 3170.0 1784.0 1800.0 794.1 4067.0 4070.0 30573.0 30438.0 07-Mar-18 3361.0 3153.4 1783.0 1797.0 787.5 779.9 3971.0 4069.0 30474.0 30565.0 08-Mar-18 3361.0 3150.0 1782.0 1797.8 795.3 775.2 3952.0 3972.0 30429.0 30459.0 09-Mar-18 3361.0 3137.5 1781.0 1790.3 793.3 774.3 4023.0 3903.0 30401.0 30369.0 12-Mar-18 3361.0 3116.5 1776.0 1786.4 783.2 770.5 3991.0 4037.0 30332.0 30271.0 13-Mar-18 3361.0 3117.2 1776.0 1782.8 790.1 767.7 3940.0 3990.0 30377.0 30238.0 14-Mar-18 3361.0 3103.0 1790.0 1780.0 782.5 768.6 3966.0 3944.0 30405.0 30375.0 15-Mar-18 3361.0 3092.5 1789.0 1785.6 786.7 765.8 3999.0 3962.0 30299.0 30320.0 16-Mar-18 3361.0 3085.0 1788.0 1789.8 788.9 765.0 4065.0 3973.0 30224.0 30299.0 19-Mar-18 3361.0 3080.5 1765.0 1780.0 779.6 765.0 4070.0 4044.0 30418.0 30154.0 20-Mar-18 3361.0 3072.5 1763.0 1780.7 783.8 763.9 4159.0 4036.0 30263.0 30251.0 21-Mar-18 3361.0 3070.5 1750.0 1767.5 787.2 762.9 4251.0 4143.0 30449.0 30300.0 22-Mar-18 3261.0 3054.1 1708.0 1767.4 784.3 765.9 4201.0 4250.0 30493.0 30495.0 23-Mar-18 3164.0 3035.7 1685.0 1768.8 780.2 765.0 4266.0 4183.0 30907.0 30700.0 26-Mar-18 3058.0 3042.5 1674.0 1770.0 777.8 765.0 4247.0 4291.0 30902.0 30756.0 27-Mar-18 3041.0 3026.3 1678.0 1766.5 776.1 763.3 4232.0 4255.0 30699.0 30718.0 28-Mar-18 3071.0 3055.6 1675.0 1769.4 779.0 764.1 4185.0 4228.0 30521.0 30630.0 29-Mar-18 4234.0 4188.0 30408.0 *National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd. **Multi Commodity Exchange of India. Futures: April contracts. (100 Kgs) (100 Kgs) (10 Kgs) (1 Bbl.) (10 Grams) Commodity Futures & Spot Prices Sugar* Wheat* Refined Soya Oil* Energy: Crude Oil** Bullion: Gold** Commodity Futures & Spot Markets
  23. 23. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 23 MCXCOMDEX MCXAGRI MCXMETAL MCXENERGY NCDEX-Dhaanya 01-Mar-18 3615.42 2766.35 5214.79 2802.13 3116.17 02-Mar-18 3635.18 2807.48 5237.05 2810.69 05-Mar-18 3649.67 2855.47 5206.87 2854.54 3113.16 06-Mar-18 3662.74 2861.74 5237.80 2854.47 3142.13 07-Mar-18 3623.51 2843.00 5197.53 2802.11 3118.15 08-Mar-18 3609.32 2869.48 5160.13 2789.35 3107.37 09-Mar-18 3642.07 2851.90 5217.28 2826.16 3124.05 12-Mar-18 3615.16 2813.95 5178.65 2813.80 3064.05 13-Mar-18 3612.42 2810.52 5205.78 2781.25 3099.72 14-Mar-18 3610.48 2795.80 5198.28 2791.06 3096.43 15-Mar-18 3608.07 2794.69 5180.22 2803.42 3096.41 16-Mar-18 3621.32 2803.07 5168.92 2844.97 3109.01 19-Mar-18 3618.58 2773.11 5177.54 2844.22 3052.52 20-Mar-18 3630.31 2799.39 5139.09 2900.01 3027.83 21-Mar-18 3669.76 2824.61 5177.57 2951.49 3039.23 22-Mar-18 3645.96 2820.48 5146.25 2922.99 3048.99 23-Mar-18 3659.06 2802.40 5153.50 2958.85 3001.06 26-Mar-18 3659.80 2816.13 5153.71 2953.71 3038.81 27-Mar-18 3658.64 2820.59 5148.45 2953.72 3019.37 28-Mar-18 3646.51 2823.11 5140.93 2928.45 3036.86 29-Mar-18 3662.70 2825.75 5148.12 2962.03 Multi Commodity Exchange of India and National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd: Index Close Commodity Futures Indices 2600.0 2800.0 3000.0 3200.0 3400.0 3600.0 3800.0 4000.0 4200.0 4400.0 4600.0 4800.0 5000.0 5200.0 5400.0 1-Mar 2-Mar 3-Mar 4-Mar 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar 16-Mar 17-Mar 18-Mar 19-Mar 20-Mar 21-Mar 22-Mar 23-Mar 24-Mar 25-Mar 26-Mar 27-Mar 28-Mar 29-Mar MCXCOMDEX MCXMETAL MCXENERGY MCXAGRI NCDEX-Dhaanya
  24. 24. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 24 http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/ Stock Market Country Risk Indicator/ Country (per US$) Q4 February USA 2.6 Feb 4.3 2.2 2.7 2.32 2.74 -1.1 Jan -818.7 125.7 AA+/Stable Canada 2.9 Jan 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.69 2.17 -8.6 1.28 Jan -19.8 86.5 AAA/Stable UK 1.4 Jan 1.6 2.7 2.6 0.72 1.41 -4.7 0.71 Jan -177.9 161.0 AA/-ve Euro area 2.7 Jan 2.7 1.4 1.6 -0.33 0.50 -1.3 0.81 Jan 276.3 62.9 (EU)AA/Stable Germany 2.9 Jan 5.5 1.4 1.8 -0.33 0.50 -5.2 0.81 Jan 282.3 166.4 AAA/Stable France 2.5 Jan 1.2 1.2 1.5 -0.33 0.72 -0.9 0.81 Jan -69.6 AA/Stable Italy 1.6 Jan 4.0 0.9 1.8 -0.33 1.76 5.2 0.81 Jan 54.6 BBB/Stable Spain 3.1 Jan 4.0 1.1 1.3 -0.33 1.09 -3.0 0.81 Jan -29.5 BBB+/+ve Russia 0.9 Feb 1.3 2.2 5.2 8.13 7.4 57.6 Jan 120.2 453.6 BBB-/Stable Japan 2.0 Feb 1.4 1.5 2.5 -0.04 0.02 -1.0 107.00 Jan 47.0 1261.7 A+/ Stable China 6.8 Feb 7.2 2.9 3.7 4.31 3.65 -2.1 6.30 Feb 437.9 3134.5 A+/Stable Hong Kong 3.4 Q4 0.6 3.1 1.20 1.95 -1.7 7.85 Feb -62.6 443.4 AA+/Stable Malaysia 5.9 Jan 3.0 1.4 3.68 3.95 5.7 3.87 Jan 24.1 103.7 A-/Stable Singapore 3.6 Feb 8.9 0.5 -0.8 2.31 -0.1 1.31 Feb 46.1 AAA/Stable South Korea 2.8 Feb -6.4 1.0 1.65 2.62 -1.4 1.60 Mar 93.2 394.8 AA/Stable Taiwan 3.3 Feb -1.9 2.2 0.66 1.00 3.8 29.1 Feb 17.0 456.7 AA-/Stable Thailand 4.0 Feb 4.6 0.4 1.05 2.42 2.7 31.2 Feb 12.2 212.7 BBB+/Stable Brazil 2.1 Feb 2.8 2.8 6.30 8.04 9.2 3.35 Mar 66.5 377.0 BB-/Stable Chile 3.3 Feb 8.9 2.0 0.36 4.48 0.9 605.00 Feb 9.5 38.4 A+/ Stable Mexico 1.5 Jan 0.9 5.3 7.84 7.29 3.1 18.20 Feb -11.5 177.6 BBB+/Stable South Africa 1.5 Jan 1.5 4.0 4.2 6.89 8.07 -4.5 11.90 Feb 4.2 50.0 BB/Stable India 7.2 Jan 7.5 4.4 2.5 6.05 7.29 -5.0 65.2 Feb -157.1 422.5 BBB-/Stable Note: Trade balance for last 12 months. FX Reserves at end of period. *Per cent change of the major index in US$ terms between December 29, 2017 and April 04, 2018. **Foreign Currency Ratings by S&P. 04 April 2018 Global Economic Indicators February GDP Short- term Rate Long- term Rate Exchange Rate Trade BalanceIIP CPI PPI Share Price Growth* Sovereign Rating** (% change on year ago) (%) (US$ bn.) FX Reserves Economic & Financial Market Indicators for Major Global Economies Growth Inflation Interest Rates External Sector For more Countrywise Indicators and Updates visit: 3.4 3.2 3.6 3.7 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.3 2.8 2.4 4.2 4.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 2015 2016 2017 2018 WorldOutput, Inflation& Trade (% change, IMF, WEO Database & Updates) GDP Inflation Trade
  25. 25. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 25 S&P BSE Sensex (India) DJI (US) S&P 500(US) FTSE 100(UK) FTSE 100 (Europe) NIKKEI 225 (Japan) HSI (HongKong) IPC (Mexico) BOVESPA (Brazil) 01-Mar-18 34,046.94 24,608.98 2,677.67 7,175.64 2,831.94 21,724.47 31,044.25 47,599.42 85,378.00 02-Mar-18 24,538.06 2,691.25 7,069.90 2,770.52 21,181.64 30,583.45 47,548.10 85,761.00 05-Mar-18 33,746.78 24,874.76 2,720.94 7,115.98 2,798.99 21,042.09 29,886.39 47,720.91 86,023.00 06-Mar-18 33,317.20 24,884.12 2,728.12 7,146.75 2,796.76 21,417.76 30,510.73 47,884.63 85,653.00 07-Mar-18 33,033.09 24,801.36 2,726.80 7,157.84 2,804.42 21,252.72 30,196.92 47,662.12 85,484.00 08-Mar-18 33,351.57 24,895.21 2,738.97 7,203.24 2,833.26 21,368.07 30,654.52 48,240.00 84,985.00 09-Mar-18 33,307.14 25,335.74 2,786.57 7,224.51 2,842.65 21,469.20 30,996.21 48,556.45 86,371.00 12-Mar-18 33,917.94 25,178.61 2,783.02 7,214.76 2,849.19 21,824.03 31,594.33 48,671.29 86,900.00 13-Mar-18 33,856.78 25,007.03 2,765.31 7,138.78 2,819.37 21,968.10 31,601.45 48,557.01 86,384.00 14-Mar-18 33,835.74 24,758.12 2,749.48 7,132.69 2,815.66 21,777.29 31,435.01 48,156.44 86,051.00 15-Mar-18 33,685.54 24,873.66 2,747.33 7,139.76 2,829.08 21,803.95 31,541.10 47,817.05 84,928.00 16-Mar-18 33,176.00 24,946.51 2,752.01 7,164.14 2,842.36 21,676.51 31,501.97 47,477.58 84,886.00 19-Mar-18 32,923.12 24,610.91 2,712.92 7,042.93 2,806.91 21,480.90 31,513.76 83,913.00 20-Mar-18 32,996.76 24,727.27 2,716.94 7,061.27 2,822.09 21,380.97 31,549.93 47,076.51 84,164.00 21-Mar-18 33,136.18 24,682.31 2,711.93 7,038.97 2,819.02 31,414.52 47,521.84 84,977.00 22-Mar-18 33,006.27 23,957.89 2,643.69 6,952.59 2,776.14 21,591.99 31,071.05 47,361.04 84,768.00 23-Mar-18 32,596.54 23,533.20 2,588.26 6,921.94 2,747.99 20,617.86 30,309.29 46,515.93 84,377.00 26-Mar-18 33,066.41 24,202.60 2,658.55 6,888.69 2,730.84 20,766.10 30,548.77 46,858.46 85,088.00 27-Mar-18 33,174.39 23,857.71 2,612.62 7,000.14 2,765.14 21,317.32 30,790.83 46,793.58 83,808.00 28-Mar-18 32,968.68 23,848.42 2,605.00 7,044.74 2,783.18 21,031.31 30,022.53 46,124.85 83,874.00 29-Mar-18 24,103.11 2,640.87 7,056.61 2,798.01 21,159.08 30,093.38 85,366.00 30-Mar-18 21,454.30 Closing Values International Stock Index Movements vs S&P BSE Sensex, March-2018 (with 1st Mar=100) Global Stock Indices Selected Indian & International Stock Indices DJI (US) S&P 500 (US) FTSE 100(UK) FTSE 100 (Europe) NIKKEI 225 (Japan) HSI (HongKong) IPC (Mexico) BOVESPA (Brazil)
  26. 26. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 26 Units Descriptor Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Index Number* Non-Energy Commodities 84.73 85.78 84.36 87.32 88.44 87.84 Index Number* Agriculture 90.15 90.08 88.26 87.53 89.16 90.18 Index Number* Food 93.24 93.07 91.25 91.49 93.41 94.66 Index Number* Grains 77.89 78.11 77.40 86.09 86.86 89.11 Index Number* Metals & Minerals 74.54 77.94 77.34 88.57 88.61 84.47 Index Number* Energy 68.89 69.41 65.32 85.47 80.50 80.95 USD per Barrel Crude Oil, Brent 54.89 55.49 51.97 68.99 65.42 66.45 USD per Barrel Crude Oil Dubai Fateh 53.37 54.17 51.16 66.02 62.79 63.29 USD per Barrel Crude Oil WTI 52.51 53.40 49.58 63.67 62.17 62.76 USD per Million Metric British Thermal Unit Natural Gas, H H, Louisiana 3.26 2.82 2.87 3.88 2.67 2.69 USD per Metric Ton Coal, Australian Thermal 83.73 80.41 80.55 106.85 104.71 95.85 USD per Metric Ton Aluminum 1791.24 1860.75 1901.47 2209.73 2181.79 2069.24 USD per Metric Ton Copper 5754.56 5940.91 5824.63 7065.85 7006.52 6799.18 USD per Metric Ton Iron Ore 80.41 89.44 87.65 76.34 77.46 70.35 USD per Troy Oz. Gold 1192.10 1234.20 1231.42 1331.30 1330.73 1324.66 USD per Kg Rubber 2.16 2.23 1.97 1.50 1.46 1.44 USD per Kg Cotton 1.82 1.88 1.91 2.01 1.95 2.03 USD per Metric Ton Palm oil 809.00 774.00 734.00 677.00 663.00 681.00 USD per Metric Ton Sunflower Oil 817.00 808.00 783.00 784.00 794.25 790.00 USD per Metric Ton Soybean Oil 872.00 835.00 812.00 864.00 842.00 834.00 USD per Metric Ton Soybeans 425.25 427.00 404.00 405.00 418.00 433.00 USD per Kg Sugar, European 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.40 0.40 0.40 USD per Kg Sugar, U.S. 0.65 0.67 0.66 0.59 0.57 0.55 USD per Kg Sugar, World (ISA) 0.45 0.45 0.40 0.31 0.30 0.29 USD per Kg Tea*** 2.99 2.87 2.88 3.05 2.94 2.31 USD per Kg Coffee, Arabicas 3.72 3.67 3.53 3.06 3.00 2.98 USD per Metric Ton Rice, Bangkok 377.00 367.00 370.00 442.00 425.00 430.00 USD per Metric Ton Wheat, US 173.61 181.00 176.54 178.34 190.56 198.86 *World Bank commodity price indices for low and middle income countries (2010=100); ** Avg.of Colombo, Kolkata & Mombasa auctions. Primary Commodity Indices*/ Prices Global Commodity Prices 111.05 100.00 112.32 112.16 123.87 117.01 132.35 132.33 120.13 113.25 115.59 112.76 140.83 143.84 149.04 150.63 126.57 119.73 144.45 146.46 95.20 80.29 94.24 94.02 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 2015 2016 2017 2018 Observed& ProjectedPrice Movements, IMF WEO Database Crude Oil Index(Petroleum), Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai Fateh Metals Price Index, Copper, Aluminum, Iron Ore, Tin, Nickel, Zinc, Lead,and Uranium Price Indices Food Price Index includes Cereal, Vegetable Oils, Meat, Seafood, Sugar, Bananas, and Oranges Agricultural Raw Materials Index includes Timber, Cotton, Wool, Rubber, and Hides Price Industrial Inputs Price Index includes Agricultural Raw Materials and Metals Fuel and Non-Fuel Price Indices
  27. 27. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 27 Following are the Highlights of RBI’s First Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2018-19: Policy Measures The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) unchanged at 6.00%. Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF remains unchanged at 5.75%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate are at 6.25%. The decision of the MPC is consistent with a neutral stance of monetary policy in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4% within a band of +/- 2%, while supporting growth. Assessment Global economic activity has gathered further momentum, both in AEs and EMEs, though financial market volatility and potential trade wars pose a threat to the outlook. The US economy, which ended 2017 on a slightly weak note, appeared to have bounced back in Q1:2018; the unemployment rate remains low with hiring around multi- month highs. In the Euro Area, economic activity remained buoyant, although consumer spending and factory activity slowed down due to the strengthening of the euro, but a consistently falling unemployment rate and elevated consumer confidence continued to underpin the strength of the economy. The Japanese economy registered eight straight quarters of growth till Q4:2017; available data for 2018 point to a slower start to the year with weak machinery orders and an easing manufacturing PMI in February-March. Economic activity remained robust in EMEs in Q1:2018. The Chinese economy started the year on a strong note; retail sales picked up pace indicating robust consumption, while industrial production also registered a strong increase in Q1:2018 on improved mining and manufacturing activity. In Brazil, economic activity is gaining momentum, driven by higher commodity prices. The Russian economy continued to recover in Q1; industrial production expanded in January-February, after two months of contraction, while exports grew at a robust pace. In South Africa, manufacturing PMI and business confidence, improved in Q1. Inflation remains below target in many key AEs and EMEs. World trade volume growth is expected to have been robust in Q1, as gauged from the data on container trade throughput, air freight and export orders. After softening in February, from multi-year highs on increased production in the US, crude prices hardened in the second half of March driven by rebalancing of supply by OPEC and Russia, and drawdown of US inventories. Metal prices have come under selling pressure, with copper touching a three-month low in March on uncertainty stemming from global trade protectionism and US monetary policy. Gold prices, which touched a two-month low in March, have recently witnessed some uptick on fears of intensification of a trade war. Global financial markets have turned volatile. Equity markets globally have shed most of the gains of the previous quarter in a heavy sell off in February-March, caused by the US imposition of new tariffs on Chinese goods. Yields in the US traded sideways on weaker than expected inflation pressures and the anticipated rate hike by the Fed. Yields in other major AEs have fallen, while among EMEs, they have remained divergent. In currency markets, the US dollar, which recovered somewhat in early March on an optimistic outlook of the economy, shed most of its gains in the latter part of the month on a less hawkish stance of the Fed and on anxieties surrounding a possible trade war. The euro continued to appreciate on an improving growth outlook for the region. Most EME currencies have retreated in the wake of the recent market volatility and the improving US economic outlook. In India GDP growth in 2017-18 at 6.6 per cent, according to the second advance estimates, was lower than 7.1 per cent in 2016-17 and the deceleration was broad-based. Private consumption growth – whose contribution to GDP growth in 2017-18 was 68 per cent – moderated in the second half. GST implementation had an adverse effect on urban consumption through loss of output and employment in the labour-intensive unorganised sector. Government expenditure provided sustained support to aggregate demand, with a pick-up in pace in the second half. GFCF turned around in Q2 and accelerated markedly in Q3. Net exports dragged down aggregate demand in 2017-18 due to a surge in imports and deceleration in exports in Q3, the latter being driven in part by GST-related working capital disruptions. Capital goods production registered a 19-month high growth in January 2018, indicative of the likely traction in investment demand. The manufacturing PMI remained in an expansionary mode for the eighth consecutive month in March. Retail inflation, measured by year-on-year change in the CPI, fell from a high of 5.1 per cent in January to 4.4 per cent in February due to a decline in inflation in food and fuel. Food inflation declined by 120 bps in February, pulled down by a sharp decline in vegetable prices, especially of onions and tomatoes, along with continuing deflation in
  28. 28. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 28 pulses. The fall in prices was also observed in other food components such as eggs, sugar, meat and fish, oils, spices, cereals and milk. In the fuel and light group, inflation in respect of liquefied petroleum gas declined in line with international price movements. CPI inflation excluding food and fuel, remained unchanged at 5.2 per cent for the third consecutive month in February. Liquidity in the system moved between surplus and deficit during February-March 2018. From a daily net average surplus of Rs. 272 billion during February 1-11, liquidity moved into deficit during February 12-March 1, reflecting a slowdown in government spending and large tax collections. After turning into surplus during March 2-15, the system moved into deficit again during March 16-22 mainly on account of quarterly advance tax outflows. Anticipating the seasonal tightening of liquidity at the end of March, the Reserve Bank conducted four additional longer tenor (24-31 days) variable rate repo operations aggregating Rs.1 trillion, apart from the regular repo operations. In mid- March, additional liquidity of Rs. 1 trillion got released into the system through redemption of Treasury Bills issued under the MSS in April and May 2017. The Reserve Bank injected Rs. 60 billion and Rs. 213 billion on a net daily average basis in February and March, respectively. The weighted average call rate inched closer to the policy repo rate from 12 basis points below the policy rate in January to 7 bps in February, and 5 bps in March. Merchandise exports decelerated in January and February 2018, pulled down by a slowdown in exports of gems and jewellery, readymade garments and engineering goods. Imports also moderated in February due to a decline in gold imports, lower growth in non-oil non-gold imports, and contraction in imports of transport equipment, vegetable oils and pulses. As import growth continued to exceed export growth in January-February the trade deficit widened. The CAD increased in Q3:2017-18, primarily on account of the higher trade deficit. Net FDI moderated in April- January 2017-18 vis-à-vis the level a year ago. FPIs made net purchases in 2017-18, despite net sales in the wake of a global sell-off in February. India’s foreign exchange reserves were at US$424.4 billion on March 30, 2018. Outlook GDP growth for 2018-19 is projected to improve, from 6.6 per cent in 2017-18, to 7.4 per cent – in the range of 7.3-7.4 per cent in H1 and 7.3-7.6 per cent in H2 – with risks evenly balanced around this baseline path. There are now clearer signs of revival in investment activity as reflected in the sustained expansion in capital goods production and still rising imports. Global trade growth has accelerated which should encourage exports and reduce the drag from net exports. The teething troubles relating to implementation of the GST are receding. Credit off-take has improved in the recent period and is becoming increasingly broad-based. the long-term growth potential is also expected to be reinforced by various structural reforms introduced in the recent past. On the downside, the deterioration in public finances risks crowding out private financing and investment. Furthermore, even as global growth and trade have been strengthening, rising trade protectionism and financial market volatility could derail the ongoing global recovery. In this unsettling global environment, it is especially important that domestic macroeconomic fundamentals are strengthened, deleveraging of distressed corporates and rebuilding of bank balance sheets persisted with, and the risk-sharing markets deepened. CPI inflation in Q4:2017-18 is now projected at 4.5 per cent. It is projected to pick up from 4.4 per cent in February 2018 to 5.1 per cent in Q1:2018-19 due to unfavourable base effects and then moderate to 4.7 per cent in Q2, and 4.4 per cent in Q3 and Q4, with risks tilted to the upside. Overall food inflation should remain under check on the assumption of a normal monsoon and effective supply management by the Government. The revised formula for MSP as announced in the Union Budget 2018-19 for kharif crops may have an impact on inflation. International crude oil prices have become volatile in the recent period, with a distinct hardening bias in the second half of March, imparting considerable uncertainty to the near-term outlook. Indian domestic demand is expected to strengthen during the course of the year. The statistical impact of an increase in HRA for central government employees under the 7th CPC will continue till mid-2018, and gradually dissipate thereafter.
  29. 29. E-UpDates April 2018 Surge Research Support 29 E-UpDates Subscription (Renewal) form One year subscription: Rs. 3600.00 Back issue: Rs. 150.00 (per issue) SUBSCRIBER INFORMATION (Please complete the form clearly to receive information and offerings from Ecofin-Surge) Subscription for……………………………. Subscription Number……………..………… (New subscription or Renewal or Back issue) (for renewal) Issues from……………………………………………….. to ………………………………………………. (please specify for Back issues) Name ……………………………………………………………………………………… Organization ……………………………………………………………………………… Address1…………………………………………………………………………………... Address2…………………………………………………………………………………... City…………………………………………….. State …………………………………… Pin……………………..Phone………………….…… Email……………………………. PAYMENT INFORMATION Cheque (in favour of SURGE RESEARCH SUPPORT) Cheque Number …………………. Bank ………..…………………….. Date………………………….. Amount…………… OR Bank Transfer (made payable to SURGE RESEARCH SUPPORT) Bank Name: Axis Bank Branch: Rashbehari Avenue, Kolkata A/C Number: 911020021891851 IFS Code: UTIB0000253 Date………………………….. Amount…………… Please complete this page and mail (/email) it to: Sakuntala Sarkar For: Surge Research Support 772, R.N. Tagore Road Kolkata 700 077 West Bengal, INDIA Email: ecofin.surge@gmail.com
  30. 30. E-UpDates April 2018 EUpDates April 2018 A Monthly Statistical Bulletin 2018 Surge Research Support 30 EUpDates April 2018 A Monthly Statistical Bulletin To subscribe visit www.ecofin-surge.co.in/kiosk.html or email ecofin-surge@gmail.com Rs. 3600.00 (12 Issues) Surge Research Support www.ecofin Surge Research SupportSurge Research Support www.ecofin-surge.co.in 4/12/2018

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