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L a t e F a l l 2 0 1 7
Apparel
Quarterly
Update
Market Update
K E Y D A T A P O I N T S
Our Quarterly Apparel Report is intended to provide consistent
quarterly insights into all things Apparel. We hope you will find this
report, and the other reports to follow, as a useful source of
information on current market conditions, trends and transaction
activity.
From an M&A perspective, Consumer1 transactions continue to
surge – over $25 billion of transaction value in Q3 2017 alone – with
valuations we have not seen since the economic downtown of 2008.
This activity is underpinned by the strength of the debt capital
markets where middle-market debt multiples have increased to
almost 6x EBITDA. Consumer confidence continues to climb, now
exceeding pre-recession levels, and the eight-plus year bull market
surged forward with the S&P 500 rising 4% last quarter.
With that said, there are still headwinds in the Apparel sector that are
undeniable. Brands reliant upon a rapidly evolving wholesale model
must navigate a world that likely includes fewer doors and greater
markdown dollars. Digitally native brands must cope with rising
customer acquisition costs and lifetime value metrics that are
increasingly on the come. All this is to say nothing of brick and mortar
retailers, who continue to face declining foot traffic and a pervasive
shift to online purchasing.
We believe the uncertainty within the current market has created
opportunities for companies who are nimble and well-capitalized:
opportunities to problem solve through a convergence of innovation,
human capital and technology. We are excited for these
opportunities, and for brands that are affecting change, and look
forward to sharing our thoughts with you.
The S&P 500 rose 16.2% over the trailing 12 months,
continuing a steady upward trend, with the S&P
Consumer Discretionary Index rising 12.8% over the
same period3
Consumer confidence has exceeded pre-recession
levels, rising 2.8% to 120.62 in Q3 2017;
unemployment dropped to 4.2% for the same period
Within Consumer, the Active Apparel and Footwear
index garnered the highest valuations at 12.6x LTM
EBITDA
Over $210 billion of transaction value in Consumer
M&A was consummated in the trailing 12 months, as
compared to $134 billion over the same period last
year3
$
1$
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Conference Board
I N T R O D U C T I O N
2 Consumer confidence index is benchmarked to 1985=100
3 Trailing 12 months from 9/30/2017 and 9/30/2016, respectively
1 Consumer includes both the consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors
Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017
Page 3
Trends and Insights
As customer acquisition costs continue to rise, companies are realizing that it
is much cheaper to retain than acquire a customer. Marketing channels such
as email, social media and native content are among some of the most
effective ways to drive customer loyalty.
Showrooms Gain in Popularity
Email
Marketing
Social
Media
Marketing
Content
Marketing
Referral
Marketing
Search
Engine
Optimization
56%
37%
32%
26%
13%
Only 42% of companies are able to measure Customer Lifetime
Value (CLV) accurately, yet 76% of companies see CLV as an
important concept for their organization4
The probability of selling to an existing customer is 60-70%,
while the probability of selling to a new prospect is 0-20%4
Existing customers are 50% more likely to try new products and
spend 31% more, when compared to new customers4
1 2Customer Retention > Customer Acquisition
A growing number of online and brick-and-mortar companies are adopting the
concept of showrooming, which is the process by which a shopper visits a brick-
and-mortar store to examine or browse for products but then purchases online.
Showrooming has grown popular because people ultimately prefer to touch, try and
test out products. At the same time, retailers benefit by holding less inventory.
(Estimated Sales per Square Foot)
Bonobos
The Gap
$3,000
$450
4 “Customer Acquisition Costs vs. Retention Costs.” Invesp. 5 “85% of Consumers Prefer to Shop at Physical Stores vs. Online.” TimeTrade.
6 “2017 Retail Trends.” PwC.
7 “Why Retailers Are Trying on Showrooms.” RetailDIVE.
Most Effective Digital Marketing Tactics for Customer Retention4
Showrooming vs. Traditional Retail7
An apparel showroom needs to stock only around 220 items to
address its style and size assortment. By contrast, a typical
specialty apparel retailer might stock more than 3,600 items in
jeans alone6
In fashion apparel, physical stores experience a return rate of
about 3%, compared with about 25% for online sales6
85% of shoppers still prefer to make their purchases in person5
Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017
Page 4
Almost every
month
Every season
(2-3 months)
Twice a year
(4-6 months)
Once a year
(12 months)
Approximately
1-2 years
Approximately
2+ years
3%
17%
26%
22%
9%
4%
Trends and Insights
The Rise of Menswear Denim is Rebounding
Men are increasingly prioritizing personal grooming and fashion. Actors,
musicians and athletes are paying attention to fashion, which is driving growth
in the menswear category. Nevertheless, men are less frequent buyers than
women, instead choosing to focus on quality and style over fast fashion. As a
result, growth in men’s designer apparel and footwear is surpassing growth in
overall menswear, as men are more inclined to pay a premium for branded
products that they know and trust.
3
Growth in the denim market is being driven by the expanding urban population,
an increase in the number of white-collar employees, changing perceptions
about “executive wear” and the resulting acceptance of jeans as business
casual attire. Additionally, the emergence of four-way stretch, softer cotton and
features such as heattech, anti-odor and windproof lines in denim jeans will
likely generate interest among consumers over the next four years.
4
Analysts forecast the global menswear market to grow at a
CAGR of 4.51% during the period 2016-2020, compared with
1.8% for the overall U.S. apparel market8
The men’s fashion industry is growing in excess of two times
that of women’s fashion9
The $13.5 billion U.S. denim market is the largest denim market
in the world and grew 4% in 2016, indicating its rebound from
recent challenging times11
The global market for denim jeans is forecasted to reach $79.2
billion by 202212
Women own seven pairs of jeans on average, while men own
six13
Growth in menswear from
millennials is largely taking
place in department stores
Department
stores
All other retail
64%
18%
8 “Global Menswear Market.” Reportlinker.
9 “The Present And Future Of Men’s Fashion.” OglIvy.
10 “Millennials Increase Sales Revenues For Menswear Apparel By 64%.” SOR|CG.
11 “Denim Sales on the Rise in the U.S.” The NPD Group.
12 “The Global Denim Jeans Market.” Global Industry Analysts, Inc.
13 “The Denim Industry in Detail.” FashionUnited.
14 “How Fast Fashion Affects the Product Lifecycle of Jeans.” Ethan Brown, et. al.
Increase in Menswear Apparel Sales for Millennial Men10 Jeans Purchase Frequency14
Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017
Page 5
Recent Apparel M&A Transaction Activity
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
04/03/2017
05/04/2017
05/16/2017
06/06/2017
07/10/2017
07/27/2017
08/01/2017
08/14/201701/11/2017
04/25/2017
05/08/2017
06/02/2017
06/16/2017
07/25/2017
07/28/201702/01/2017
08/03/2017
08/17/2017
Sept
2017
Jan
2017
Apparel and Fashion Active Apparel and Footwear RetailAccessories
Sectors
was acquired by
was acquired by
was acquired by
was acquired by
was acquired by
was acquired by
was acquired by
received an
investment from
was acquired by
IPO Filing
was acquired by
IPO Filing
was acquired by
was acquired by
was acquired by
was acquired by
was acquired by
was acquired by
Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017
Page 6
Transaction Spotlight
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Pitchbook,
Mergermarket, and The Deal
Apparel and Fashion Active Apparel and Footwear RetailAccessories
Sectors
“[Kate Spade] brings important brand
attitude and customer diversification
to our portfolio. Importantly, Kate
Spade has successfully introduced a
broad range of lifestyle categories to
create a well-articulated brand
expression.”
- Victor Luis, Chief Executive Officer
and Director of Coach, Inc.
May 2017
Kate Spade & Company was
acquired by Coach, Inc. for
$2,776 million EV
Kate Spade & Company designs
and markets hand bags, small
leather goods and fashion
accessories.
Coach, Inc. is a multinational
luxury fashion company offering
women’s and men’s bags, apparel
and accessories.
“We’re seeing momentum in the
business as we expand our value
proposition with customers and it’s
incredible to see how fast we’re
moving. Adding innovators like [Andy
Dunn] will continue to help us shape
the future of Walmart, and the future
of retail. I’m thrilled to welcome Andy
and the entire Bonobos team.”
- Marc Lore, President and CEO of
Walmart U.S. eCommerce
June 2017
Bonobos, Inc. was acquired by
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. for
$310 million EV
Bonobos, Inc. offers pants, shorts,
shirts, suiting, sweaters, outwear,
shoes and accessories for men.
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. is an
American multinational retailing
corporation operating various
discount stores and hypermarkets.
“We believe that Jimmy Choo is
poised for meaningful growth in the
future and our company is committed
to supporting the strong brand equity
that Jimmy Choo has built over the
last 20 years.”
- John D. Idol, Chairman and Chief
Executive Officer of Michael Kors
July 2017
Jimmy Choo PLC was acquired
by Michael Kors Holdings Limited
for $1,066 million EV
Jimmy Choo PLC manufactures
and sells shoes and accessories
for men and women worldwide.
Michael Kors Holdings Limited
retails branded apparel, footwear,
watches, handbags and other
accessories.
“We are very excited about this
acquisition. With its golf heritage,
culture of product excellence and
double-digit growth in the golf and
lifestyle apparel business,
TravisMathew is a great fit with our
business, brands, culture and our
strategy to grow in areas tangential to
golf.”
- Chip Brewer, President and Chief
Executive Officer of Callaway Golf
Company
August 2017
TravisMathew LLC was acquired
by Callaway Golf Company, Inc.
for $126 million EV
TravisMathew LLC manufactures
and retails golf apparel, outerwear,
shoes, socks, belts, hats, luggage
and accessories.
Callaway Golf Company, Inc.
manufactures and sells golf clubs,
bags, balls and accessories.
Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017
Page 7
Sector Performance Scorecard
Details on pages 9 through 13
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, as of
September 30, 2017
Apparel and
Fashion
Active Apparel
and Footwear
Accessories
Retail
(15.0%)
(5.0%)
5.0%
15.0%
25.0%
(15.0%)
(5.0%)
5.0%
15.0%
25.0%
(15.0%)
(5.0%)
5.0%
15.0%
25.0%
(15.0%)
(5.0%)
5.0%
15.0%
25.0%
Enterprise Value
Revenue EBITDA
| 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 |Indexed Stock Performance
3.65x
0.47x
1.82x
16.6x
6.6x
10.7x
19.0x
5.0x
12.6x
14.5x
4.4x
9.4x
13.6x
3.1x
6.9x
0.76x
0.17x
0.68x
4.15x
0.28x
2.07x
3.16x
0.26x
1.85x
Strongest Indexed
Stock Performance
Highest Average
Valuation
Apparel and Fashion Active Apparel and Footwear RetailAccessories
Sectors
High
Mean
Low
Upper
Quartile
Lower
Quartile
LEGEND
Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017
Page 8
Eye on Retail
Indexed Stock Price Performance – Last 12 Months
(40.0%)
(30.0%)
(20.0%)
(10.0%)
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17
Mass and Club Department Off-Price Specialty Retail
Sector index weight based upon company market capitalization at valuation date.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence; index constituents for Mass and Club,
Department, Off-Price and Specialty Retail are listed on pages 12 and 13.
Struggles at Department and
Specialty Retail offset by
performance of Mass and Club
Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017
Page 9
Public Apparel Valuations
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of
September 30, 2017. Represents most actively
traded public apparel companies
($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM
Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA
30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin
Apparel & Fashion
Burberry Group plc $23.60 93.7% $10,044 $8,967 2.42x 2.41x 2.36x 12.8x 11.1x 10.5x 18.9%
Cherokee Inc. 2.75 23.2% 38 82 1.76x 2.18x 1.89x NM 7.7x 5.2x 8.1%
Delta Galil Industries Ltd. 111.50 91.7% 2,832 3,027 2.28x NA NA NM NM NM 8.1%
G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. 29.02 88.0% 1,415 1,925 0.75x 0.69x 0.64x 14.0x 10.3x 8.4x 5.4%
Hanesbrands Inc. 24.64 91.0% 8,981 12,757 2.00x 1.98x 1.94x 12.2x 11.9x 11.4x 16.4%
Hugo Boss AG 88.12 98.3% 6,082 6,268 1.95x 1.95x 1.90x 11.1x 10.7x 10.2x 17.6%
Iconix Brand Group, Inc. 5.69 52.7% 325 1,288 3.65x NM NM 8.2x 11.5x 10.5x 44.4%
Kering S.A. 398.36 100.0% 50,303 56,490 3.42x 3.23x 3.01x 16.6x 15.5x 14.0x 20.6%
Li & Fung Limited 3.92 95.6% 33,202 33,573 2.09x 2.14x 2.11x NM NM NM 3.0%
Michael Kors Holdings Limited 47.85 90.8% 7,254 7,136 1.60x 1.64x 1.66x 6.7x 7.6x 7.7x 24.0%
Perry Ellis International, Inc. 23.66 81.6% 372 402 0.47x 0.46x 0.45x 9.9x 6.6x 6.1x 4.8%
Prada S.p.A 32.15 72.7% 82,260 82,542 NM NM NM NM NM NM 18.6%
PVH Corp. 126.06 96.4% 9,760 12,408 1.48x 1.43x 1.37x 10.8x 10.8x 9.9x 13.6%
Ralph Lauren Corporation 88.29 77.4% 7,175 6,502 1.01x 1.06x 1.08x 6.6x 7.1x 7.1x 15.3%
Sequential Brands Group, Inc. 2.99 35.2% 189 876 NM NM 4.74x 8.6x 8.7x 7.8x 60.1%
Vince Holding Corp. 0.60 10.0% 70 138 0.53x NA NA NM NM NM (0.5%)
Median 89.4% $6,628 $6,385 1.85x 1.95x 1.89x 10.8x 10.5x 9.2x 15.9%
Mean 74.9% $13,769 $14,649 1.82x 1.74x 1.93x 10.7x 10.0x 9.1x 17.4%
Apparel and Fashion Active Apparel and Footwear RetailAccessories
Sectors
($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM
Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA
30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin
Apparel and Fashion
Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017
Page 10
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of
September 30, 2017. Represents most actively
traded public active apparel and footwear companies
($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM
Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA
30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin
Active Apparel & Footwear
Adidas AG $226.25 95.2% $45,851 $46,446 1.87x 1.81x 1.65x NM 16.0x 13.7x 9.2%
ASICS Corporation 14.88 66.0% 2,825 2,812 0.81x 0.77x 0.74x 9.8x 9.6x 8.8x 8.2%
Billabong International Limited 0.41 36.0% 81 197 0.26x NA NA 5.0x NM NM 5.1%
Columbia Sportswear Company 61.58 96.9% 4,295 3,698 1.54x 1.51x 1.44x 11.6x 11.4x 10.6x 13.3%
Crocs, Inc. 9.70 98.5% 696 722 0.71x 0.71x 0.71x 17.5x 14.0x 9.0x 4.1%
Deckers Outdoor Corporation 68.41 94.1% 2,189 1,942 1.06x 1.10x 1.08x 8.6x 8.5x 8.0x 12.4%
Lululemon Athletica Inc. 62.25 85.6% 8,428 7,706 3.16x 2.98x 2.70x 14.8x 13.7x 12.2x 21.3%
NIKE, Inc. 51.85 85.7% 85,106 83,401 2.43x 2.41x 2.25x 15.6x 16.8x 14.5x 15.6%
PUMA SE 388.22 88.4% 5,800 5,636 1.22x 1.16x 1.06x 19.0x 16.5x 13.2x 6.4%
Skechers U.S.A., Inc. 25.09 83.6% 3,975 3,402 0.89x 0.84x 0.76x 7.9x 7.9x 6.4x 11.3%
Under Armour, Inc. 16.48 42.0% 7,267 8,057 1.62x 1.54x 1.39x 15.3x 17.8x 15.8x 10.6%
V.F. Corporation 63.57 98.5% 25,023 27,636 2.30x 2.34x 2.18x 14.8x 14.5x 13.5x 15.6%
Wolverine World Wide, Inc. 28.85 98.8% 2,788 3,189 1.26x 1.36x 1.38x 11.8x 10.7x 10.1x 10.7%
Median 88.4% $4,295 $3,698 1.26x 1.43x 1.38x 13.3x 13.8x 11.4x 10.7%
Mean 82.3% $14,948 $14,988 1.47x 1.55x 1.44x 12.6x 13.1x 11.3x 11.1%
Public Apparel Valuations
Apparel and Fashion Active Apparel and Footwear RetailAccessories
Sectors
($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM
Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA
30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin
Active Apparel and Footwear
Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017
Page 11
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of
September 30, 2017. Represents most actively
traded accessories companies
($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM
Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA
30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin
Accessories
Coach, Inc. $40.28 82.5% $11,390 $9,886 2.20x 1.89x 1.65x 9.9x 8.6x 7.4x 22.3%
Essilor International Société Anonyme 123.80 85.8% 26,485 29,649 3.37x 3.31x 3.15x 14.5x 14.3x 13.3x 23.2%
Fossil Group, Inc. 9.33 25.3% 453 791 0.28x 0.28x 0.29x 4.4x 5.3x 4.7x 6.2%
Luxottica Group S.p.A. 55.89 82.2% 26,741 28,009 2.55x 2.55x 2.43x 11.8x 11.9x 11.2x 21.7%
Movado Group, Inc. 28.00 87.6% 643 510 0.95x 0.95x 0.92x 8.8x 7.5x 7.3x 10.8%
Pandora A/S 98.71 66.3% 10,883 11,459 3.40x 3.15x 2.81x 9.0x 8.4x 7.5x 37.9%
Compagnie Financière Richemont SA 104.60 99.6% 59,079 52,247 4.15x 4.00x 3.80x NM 17.2x 15.3x 19.7%
Safilo Group S.p.A. 6.68 55.7% 419 552 0.40x 0.43x 0.41x NM 8.7x 5.9x 1.4%
Tiffany & Co. 91.78 94.3% 11,428 11,516 2.85x 2.82x 2.70x 11.9x 11.6x 10.8x 24.0%
Vera Bradley, Inc. 8.81 55.5% 317 232 0.49x 0.50x 0.56x 4.7x 5.0x 4.8x 10.6%
Median 82.3% $11,137 $10,672 2.38x 2.22x 2.04x 9.4x 8.7x 7.4x 20.7%
Mean 73.5% $14,784 $14,485 2.07x 1.99x 1.87x 9.4x 9.8x 8.8x 17.8%
Public Apparel Valuations
Apparel and Fashion Active Apparel and Footwear RetailAccessories
Sectors
Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017
Page 12
Public Apparel Retailer Valuations
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of
September 30, 2017. Represents most actively
traded department stores, mass and club retailers
($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM
Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA
30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin
Department
The Bon-Ton Stores, Inc. $0.43 21.7% $9 $990 0.38x NA NA 9.1x NM NM 4.2%
Dillard's, Inc. 56.07 67.2% 1,627 2,310 0.37x 0.37x 0.38x 4.6x 4.9x 5.1x 8.0%
Hudson's Bay Company 10.17 73.3% 1,857 5,238 0.45x 0.45x 0.44x 18.5x 13.0x 11.0x 2.5%
J. C. Penney Company, Inc. 3.81 35.5% 1,184 5,178 0.41x 0.42x 0.43x 5.8x 4.9x 5.2x 7.1%
Macy's, Inc. 21.82 48.1% 6,645 12,174 0.49x 0.49x 0.51x 4.6x 4.2x 4.8x 10.6%
Nordstrom, Inc. 47.15 75.1% 7,838 9,659 0.64x 0.63x 0.62x 5.7x 6.0x 5.9x 11.3%
Stage Stores, Inc. 1.84 31.3% 51 252 0.17x 0.16x 0.16x 8.6x 9.1x 5.6x 2.0%
Stein Mart, Inc. 1.30 18.8% 62 222 0.17x NA NA NM NM NM 0.0%
Kohl's Corporation 45.65 76.5% 7,696 11,710 0.63x 0.63x 0.64x 5.1x 5.1x 5.3x 12.5%
Median 48.1% $1,627 $5,178 0.41x 0.45x 0.44x 5.8x 5.1x 5.3x 7.1%
Mean 49.7% $2,997 $5,304 0.41x 0.45x 0.45x 7.7x 6.8x 6.1x 6.5%
($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM
Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA
30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin
Mass & Club
Amazon.com, Inc. $961.35 88.7% $461,813 $463,981 3.09x 2.67x 2.10x NM NM 19.1x 8.2%
Best Buy Co., Inc. 56.96 90.0% 17,042 14,743 0.37x 0.36x 0.36x 5.9x 5.6x 5.7x 6.2%
Costco Wholesale Corporation 164.29 89.7% 72,056 70,597 0.57x 0.54x 0.51x 13.6x 12.8x 11.9x 4.2%
Target Corporation 59.01 74.4% 32,233 42,188 0.61x 0.60x 0.60x 5.9x 6.4x 6.5x 10.3%
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. 78.14 95.3% 233,420 277,602 0.57x 0.56x 0.55x 8.4x 8.4x 8.3x 6.7%
Median 89.7% $72,056 $70,597 0.57x 0.56x 0.55x 7.2x 7.4x 8.3x 6.7%
Mean 87.6% $163,313 $173,822 1.04x 0.95x 0.82x 8.5x 8.3x 10.3x 7.1%
Apparel and Fashion Active Apparel and Footwear RetailAccessories
Sectors
($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM
Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA
30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin
Mass and Club
Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017
Page 13
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of
September 30, 2017. Represents most actively
traded public off-price and specialty retailers
($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM
Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA
30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin
Off-Price
Ross Stores, Inc. $64.57 92.5% $24,898 $24,143 1.81x 1.73x 1.65x 11.0x 10.4x 9.8x 16.4%
The TJX Companies, Inc. 73.73 91.1% 46,912 46,190 1.36x 1.29x 1.22x 10.2x 9.7x 9.2x 13.3%
Burlington Stores, Inc. 95.46 91.7% 6,584 7,830 1.36x 1.29x 1.21x 13.1x 11.5x 10.3x 10.4%
Median 91.7% $24,898 $24,143 1.36x 1.29x 1.22x 11.0x 10.4x 9.8x 13.3%
Mean 91.8% $26,131 $26,054 1.51x 1.44x 1.36x 11.4x 10.5x 9.8x 13.4%
($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM
Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA
30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin
Specialty Retail
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. $14.44 83.2% $983 $883 0.27x 0.27x 0.27x 4.9x 4.0x 4.4x 5.5%
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. $14.30 75.3% $2,532 $2,339 0.64x 0.63x 0.62x 4.9x 5.0x 4.8x 13.2%
Ascena Retail Group, Inc. $2.45 29.9% $471 $1,682 0.25x 0.26x 0.27x 3.1x 3.3x 3.1x 8.2%
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. $8.90 51.6% $237 $483 0.76x 0.74x 0.69x 8.6x 8.3x 8.0x 8.8%
The Buckle, Inc. $16.85 62.2% $812 $569 0.61x 0.63x 0.65x 3.4x 3.8x 4.2x 18.0%
Chico's FAS, Inc. $8.95 53.1% $1,148 $1,038 0.44x 0.46x 0.47x 4.0x 4.4x 4.3x 11.0%
DSW Inc. $21.48 82.7% $1,726 $1,455 0.53x 0.52x 0.51x 5.4x 5.2x 5.1x 9.8%
The Finish Line, Inc. $12.03 49.1% $484 $369 0.20x 0.20x 0.20x 3.9x 3.9x 4.4x 5.2%
Foot Locker, Inc. $35.22 44.3% $4,367 $3,450 0.45x 0.45x 0.45x 3.3x 3.6x 3.7x 13.8%
The Gap, Inc. $29.53 96.1% $11,580 $11,219 0.73x 0.72x 0.72x 5.6x 5.8x 5.8x 13.0%
Genesco Inc. $26.60 36.9% $530 $680 0.24x 0.24x 0.23x 3.7x 3.7x 3.6x 6.5%
L Brands, Inc. $41.61 55.1% $11,811 $16,221 1.32x 1.31x 1.27x 6.9x 7.1x 6.9x 19.1%
Urban Outfitters, Inc. $23.90 58.6% $2,625 $2,238 0.63x 0.63x 0.62x 5.5x 5.7x 5.5x 11.6%
Zumiez Inc. $18.10 68.2% $457 $386 0.45x 0.43x 0.42x 5.8x 5.6x 5.2x 7.8%
Median 56.8% $1,066 $1,246 0.49x 0.49x 0.49x 4.9x 4.7x 4.6x 10.4%
Mean 60.5% $2,840 $3,072 0.54x 0.53x 0.53x 4.9x 5.0x 4.9x 10.8%
Public Apparel Retailer Valuations
Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017
Page 14
5.0x
7.0x
9.0x
11.0x
13.0x
15.0x
17.0x
Apparel and Fashion Active Apparel and Footwear Accessories
12.6x
14.0x
12.4x
13.2x
12.8x
11.9x
10.1x
12.1x
10.9x
11.5x
13.1x
10.4x
10.6x
12.7x
9.4x
2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM
Mean: 11.0x
Mean: 12.9x
Mean: 11.6x
Historical Public Apparel Trends
Enterprise Value as a Multiple of EBITDA(1)
(1) Index calculation excludes any companies with non-meaningful trading multiples
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence; LTM values as of 9/30/2017.
Represents most actively traded public apparel, footwear and accessories companies
Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017
Page 15
3.0x
5.0x
7.0x
9.0x
11.0x
13.0x
15.0x
Mass and Club Department Off-Price Specialty Retail
8.7x
7.9x
11.0x
7.6x
9.6x
8.8x
11.9x
8.3x8.4x
6.8x
11.0x
6.5x
8.3x
7.8x
12.4x
6.1x
8.6x
7.7x
11.4x
4.9x
2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM
Mean: 11.5x
Mean: 8.7x
Historical Public Apparel Retailer Trends
Enterprise Value as a Multiple of EBITDA(1)
(1) Index calculation excludes any companies with non-meaningful trading multiples
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence; LTM values as of 9/30/2017.
Represents most actively traded public apparel, footwear and accessories retailers
Mean: 7.8x
Mean: 6.7x
Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017
Page 16
Selected Duff & PhelpsApparel andAccessoriesTransactions
*Transactions completed by professionals of Duff &
Phelps Securities, LLC while at previous firms
Transaction Advisory Sell Side Advisor
Buy Side Advisor
has acquired
Sell Side Advisor
has been acquired by
has received a significant
investment from
Financial and tax due diligence
Solvency Opinion
J. Crew Group, Inc., a
portfolio company of TPG
Capital and Leonard Green
& Partners, has completed a
leveraged dividend
recapitalization transaction
Financial Advisor
The Eileen Fisher, Inc.
Employee Stock Ownership
Plan has acquired a minority
interest in Eileen Fisher, Inc.
Financial and tax due diligence
Transaction Advisory
has received a significant
investment from
Sell Side Advisor*
has received a significant
investment from
Sell Side Advisor
Exclusive financial advisor to
Most Retail Group
Most Retail Group has been
acquired by Levi Strauss & Co.
has been acquired by
DR Capital
Sell Side Advisor*
has received a significant
investment from
Sell Side Advisor*
has received a significant
investment from
Private Placement*
has been recapitalized by
Private Placement
has completed a debt financing
transaction with
Sell Side Advisor*
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
Solvency Opinion
a portfolio company of
Leveraged dividend
recapitalization
Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017
Page 17
Contact Us
For more information, please visit:
www.duffandphelps.com
Duff & Phelps is the premier global valuation and
corporate finance advisor with expertise in complex
valuation, disputes and investigations, M&A, real
estate, restructuring, and compliance and regulatory
consulting. The firm’s more than 2,500 employees
serve a diverse range of clients from offices around
the world.
M&A advisory, capital raising and secondary market advisory services in the
United States are provided by Duff & Phelps Securities, LLC. Member
FINRA/SIPC. Pagemill Partners is a Division of Duff & Phelps Securities, LLC.
M&A advisory and capital raising services in Canada are provided by Duff &
Phelps Securities Canada Ltd., a registered Exempt Market Dealer. M&A
advisory and capital raising services in the United Kingdom and across Europe
are provided by Duff & Phelps Securities Ltd. (DPSL), which is authorized and
regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. In Germany, M&A advisory and
capital raising services are also provided by Duff & Phelps GmbH, which is a
Tied Agent of DPSL. Valuation Advisory Services in India are provided by Duff
& Phelps India Private Limited under a category 1 merchant banker license
issued by the Securities and Exchange Board of India.
About
Duff & Phelps
Copyright © 2017 Duff & Phelps LLC. All rights reserved.
Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017
Corporate Finance
Valuation Services Transaction Advisory Services
Edward Mielke
Managing Director
(212) 450-2876
ed.mielke@duffandphelps.com
Jared Brenner
Vice President
(310) 598-4368
jared.brenner@duffandphelps.com
Myron Marcinkowski
Managing Director
(678) 916-2500
myron.marcinkowski@duffandphelps.com
Raphael Newman
Managing Director
(212) 871-2000
raphael.newman@duffandphelps.com
Joshua Benn
Head of Consumer
Corporate Finance
(212) 450-2840
joshua.benn@duffandphelps.com
Brian Little
Managing Director
(310) 598-4358
brian.little@duffandphelps.com

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Apparel Quarterly Update - Late Fall 2017

  • 1. L a t e F a l l 2 0 1 7 Apparel Quarterly Update
  • 2. Market Update K E Y D A T A P O I N T S Our Quarterly Apparel Report is intended to provide consistent quarterly insights into all things Apparel. We hope you will find this report, and the other reports to follow, as a useful source of information on current market conditions, trends and transaction activity. From an M&A perspective, Consumer1 transactions continue to surge – over $25 billion of transaction value in Q3 2017 alone – with valuations we have not seen since the economic downtown of 2008. This activity is underpinned by the strength of the debt capital markets where middle-market debt multiples have increased to almost 6x EBITDA. Consumer confidence continues to climb, now exceeding pre-recession levels, and the eight-plus year bull market surged forward with the S&P 500 rising 4% last quarter. With that said, there are still headwinds in the Apparel sector that are undeniable. Brands reliant upon a rapidly evolving wholesale model must navigate a world that likely includes fewer doors and greater markdown dollars. Digitally native brands must cope with rising customer acquisition costs and lifetime value metrics that are increasingly on the come. All this is to say nothing of brick and mortar retailers, who continue to face declining foot traffic and a pervasive shift to online purchasing. We believe the uncertainty within the current market has created opportunities for companies who are nimble and well-capitalized: opportunities to problem solve through a convergence of innovation, human capital and technology. We are excited for these opportunities, and for brands that are affecting change, and look forward to sharing our thoughts with you. The S&P 500 rose 16.2% over the trailing 12 months, continuing a steady upward trend, with the S&P Consumer Discretionary Index rising 12.8% over the same period3 Consumer confidence has exceeded pre-recession levels, rising 2.8% to 120.62 in Q3 2017; unemployment dropped to 4.2% for the same period Within Consumer, the Active Apparel and Footwear index garnered the highest valuations at 12.6x LTM EBITDA Over $210 billion of transaction value in Consumer M&A was consummated in the trailing 12 months, as compared to $134 billion over the same period last year3 $ 1$ Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Conference Board I N T R O D U C T I O N 2 Consumer confidence index is benchmarked to 1985=100 3 Trailing 12 months from 9/30/2017 and 9/30/2016, respectively 1 Consumer includes both the consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors
  • 3. Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017 Page 3 Trends and Insights As customer acquisition costs continue to rise, companies are realizing that it is much cheaper to retain than acquire a customer. Marketing channels such as email, social media and native content are among some of the most effective ways to drive customer loyalty. Showrooms Gain in Popularity Email Marketing Social Media Marketing Content Marketing Referral Marketing Search Engine Optimization 56% 37% 32% 26% 13% Only 42% of companies are able to measure Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) accurately, yet 76% of companies see CLV as an important concept for their organization4 The probability of selling to an existing customer is 60-70%, while the probability of selling to a new prospect is 0-20%4 Existing customers are 50% more likely to try new products and spend 31% more, when compared to new customers4 1 2Customer Retention > Customer Acquisition A growing number of online and brick-and-mortar companies are adopting the concept of showrooming, which is the process by which a shopper visits a brick- and-mortar store to examine or browse for products but then purchases online. Showrooming has grown popular because people ultimately prefer to touch, try and test out products. At the same time, retailers benefit by holding less inventory. (Estimated Sales per Square Foot) Bonobos The Gap $3,000 $450 4 “Customer Acquisition Costs vs. Retention Costs.” Invesp. 5 “85% of Consumers Prefer to Shop at Physical Stores vs. Online.” TimeTrade. 6 “2017 Retail Trends.” PwC. 7 “Why Retailers Are Trying on Showrooms.” RetailDIVE. Most Effective Digital Marketing Tactics for Customer Retention4 Showrooming vs. Traditional Retail7 An apparel showroom needs to stock only around 220 items to address its style and size assortment. By contrast, a typical specialty apparel retailer might stock more than 3,600 items in jeans alone6 In fashion apparel, physical stores experience a return rate of about 3%, compared with about 25% for online sales6 85% of shoppers still prefer to make their purchases in person5
  • 4. Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017 Page 4 Almost every month Every season (2-3 months) Twice a year (4-6 months) Once a year (12 months) Approximately 1-2 years Approximately 2+ years 3% 17% 26% 22% 9% 4% Trends and Insights The Rise of Menswear Denim is Rebounding Men are increasingly prioritizing personal grooming and fashion. Actors, musicians and athletes are paying attention to fashion, which is driving growth in the menswear category. Nevertheless, men are less frequent buyers than women, instead choosing to focus on quality and style over fast fashion. As a result, growth in men’s designer apparel and footwear is surpassing growth in overall menswear, as men are more inclined to pay a premium for branded products that they know and trust. 3 Growth in the denim market is being driven by the expanding urban population, an increase in the number of white-collar employees, changing perceptions about “executive wear” and the resulting acceptance of jeans as business casual attire. Additionally, the emergence of four-way stretch, softer cotton and features such as heattech, anti-odor and windproof lines in denim jeans will likely generate interest among consumers over the next four years. 4 Analysts forecast the global menswear market to grow at a CAGR of 4.51% during the period 2016-2020, compared with 1.8% for the overall U.S. apparel market8 The men’s fashion industry is growing in excess of two times that of women’s fashion9 The $13.5 billion U.S. denim market is the largest denim market in the world and grew 4% in 2016, indicating its rebound from recent challenging times11 The global market for denim jeans is forecasted to reach $79.2 billion by 202212 Women own seven pairs of jeans on average, while men own six13 Growth in menswear from millennials is largely taking place in department stores Department stores All other retail 64% 18% 8 “Global Menswear Market.” Reportlinker. 9 “The Present And Future Of Men’s Fashion.” OglIvy. 10 “Millennials Increase Sales Revenues For Menswear Apparel By 64%.” SOR|CG. 11 “Denim Sales on the Rise in the U.S.” The NPD Group. 12 “The Global Denim Jeans Market.” Global Industry Analysts, Inc. 13 “The Denim Industry in Detail.” FashionUnited. 14 “How Fast Fashion Affects the Product Lifecycle of Jeans.” Ethan Brown, et. al. Increase in Menswear Apparel Sales for Millennial Men10 Jeans Purchase Frequency14
  • 5. Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017 Page 5 Recent Apparel M&A Transaction Activity Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence 04/03/2017 05/04/2017 05/16/2017 06/06/2017 07/10/2017 07/27/2017 08/01/2017 08/14/201701/11/2017 04/25/2017 05/08/2017 06/02/2017 06/16/2017 07/25/2017 07/28/201702/01/2017 08/03/2017 08/17/2017 Sept 2017 Jan 2017 Apparel and Fashion Active Apparel and Footwear RetailAccessories Sectors was acquired by was acquired by was acquired by was acquired by was acquired by was acquired by was acquired by received an investment from was acquired by IPO Filing was acquired by IPO Filing was acquired by was acquired by was acquired by was acquired by was acquired by was acquired by
  • 6. Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017 Page 6 Transaction Spotlight Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, Pitchbook, Mergermarket, and The Deal Apparel and Fashion Active Apparel and Footwear RetailAccessories Sectors “[Kate Spade] brings important brand attitude and customer diversification to our portfolio. Importantly, Kate Spade has successfully introduced a broad range of lifestyle categories to create a well-articulated brand expression.” - Victor Luis, Chief Executive Officer and Director of Coach, Inc. May 2017 Kate Spade & Company was acquired by Coach, Inc. for $2,776 million EV Kate Spade & Company designs and markets hand bags, small leather goods and fashion accessories. Coach, Inc. is a multinational luxury fashion company offering women’s and men’s bags, apparel and accessories. “We’re seeing momentum in the business as we expand our value proposition with customers and it’s incredible to see how fast we’re moving. Adding innovators like [Andy Dunn] will continue to help us shape the future of Walmart, and the future of retail. I’m thrilled to welcome Andy and the entire Bonobos team.” - Marc Lore, President and CEO of Walmart U.S. eCommerce June 2017 Bonobos, Inc. was acquired by Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. for $310 million EV Bonobos, Inc. offers pants, shorts, shirts, suiting, sweaters, outwear, shoes and accessories for men. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. is an American multinational retailing corporation operating various discount stores and hypermarkets. “We believe that Jimmy Choo is poised for meaningful growth in the future and our company is committed to supporting the strong brand equity that Jimmy Choo has built over the last 20 years.” - John D. Idol, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Michael Kors July 2017 Jimmy Choo PLC was acquired by Michael Kors Holdings Limited for $1,066 million EV Jimmy Choo PLC manufactures and sells shoes and accessories for men and women worldwide. Michael Kors Holdings Limited retails branded apparel, footwear, watches, handbags and other accessories. “We are very excited about this acquisition. With its golf heritage, culture of product excellence and double-digit growth in the golf and lifestyle apparel business, TravisMathew is a great fit with our business, brands, culture and our strategy to grow in areas tangential to golf.” - Chip Brewer, President and Chief Executive Officer of Callaway Golf Company August 2017 TravisMathew LLC was acquired by Callaway Golf Company, Inc. for $126 million EV TravisMathew LLC manufactures and retails golf apparel, outerwear, shoes, socks, belts, hats, luggage and accessories. Callaway Golf Company, Inc. manufactures and sells golf clubs, bags, balls and accessories.
  • 7. Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017 Page 7 Sector Performance Scorecard Details on pages 9 through 13 Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, as of September 30, 2017 Apparel and Fashion Active Apparel and Footwear Accessories Retail (15.0%) (5.0%) 5.0% 15.0% 25.0% (15.0%) (5.0%) 5.0% 15.0% 25.0% (15.0%) (5.0%) 5.0% 15.0% 25.0% (15.0%) (5.0%) 5.0% 15.0% 25.0% Enterprise Value Revenue EBITDA | 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 |Indexed Stock Performance 3.65x 0.47x 1.82x 16.6x 6.6x 10.7x 19.0x 5.0x 12.6x 14.5x 4.4x 9.4x 13.6x 3.1x 6.9x 0.76x 0.17x 0.68x 4.15x 0.28x 2.07x 3.16x 0.26x 1.85x Strongest Indexed Stock Performance Highest Average Valuation Apparel and Fashion Active Apparel and Footwear RetailAccessories Sectors High Mean Low Upper Quartile Lower Quartile LEGEND
  • 8. Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017 Page 8 Eye on Retail Indexed Stock Price Performance – Last 12 Months (40.0%) (30.0%) (20.0%) (10.0%) 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Mass and Club Department Off-Price Specialty Retail Sector index weight based upon company market capitalization at valuation date. Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence; index constituents for Mass and Club, Department, Off-Price and Specialty Retail are listed on pages 12 and 13. Struggles at Department and Specialty Retail offset by performance of Mass and Club
  • 9. Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017 Page 9 Public Apparel Valuations Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of September 30, 2017. Represents most actively traded public apparel companies ($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA 30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin Apparel & Fashion Burberry Group plc $23.60 93.7% $10,044 $8,967 2.42x 2.41x 2.36x 12.8x 11.1x 10.5x 18.9% Cherokee Inc. 2.75 23.2% 38 82 1.76x 2.18x 1.89x NM 7.7x 5.2x 8.1% Delta Galil Industries Ltd. 111.50 91.7% 2,832 3,027 2.28x NA NA NM NM NM 8.1% G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. 29.02 88.0% 1,415 1,925 0.75x 0.69x 0.64x 14.0x 10.3x 8.4x 5.4% Hanesbrands Inc. 24.64 91.0% 8,981 12,757 2.00x 1.98x 1.94x 12.2x 11.9x 11.4x 16.4% Hugo Boss AG 88.12 98.3% 6,082 6,268 1.95x 1.95x 1.90x 11.1x 10.7x 10.2x 17.6% Iconix Brand Group, Inc. 5.69 52.7% 325 1,288 3.65x NM NM 8.2x 11.5x 10.5x 44.4% Kering S.A. 398.36 100.0% 50,303 56,490 3.42x 3.23x 3.01x 16.6x 15.5x 14.0x 20.6% Li & Fung Limited 3.92 95.6% 33,202 33,573 2.09x 2.14x 2.11x NM NM NM 3.0% Michael Kors Holdings Limited 47.85 90.8% 7,254 7,136 1.60x 1.64x 1.66x 6.7x 7.6x 7.7x 24.0% Perry Ellis International, Inc. 23.66 81.6% 372 402 0.47x 0.46x 0.45x 9.9x 6.6x 6.1x 4.8% Prada S.p.A 32.15 72.7% 82,260 82,542 NM NM NM NM NM NM 18.6% PVH Corp. 126.06 96.4% 9,760 12,408 1.48x 1.43x 1.37x 10.8x 10.8x 9.9x 13.6% Ralph Lauren Corporation 88.29 77.4% 7,175 6,502 1.01x 1.06x 1.08x 6.6x 7.1x 7.1x 15.3% Sequential Brands Group, Inc. 2.99 35.2% 189 876 NM NM 4.74x 8.6x 8.7x 7.8x 60.1% Vince Holding Corp. 0.60 10.0% 70 138 0.53x NA NA NM NM NM (0.5%) Median 89.4% $6,628 $6,385 1.85x 1.95x 1.89x 10.8x 10.5x 9.2x 15.9% Mean 74.9% $13,769 $14,649 1.82x 1.74x 1.93x 10.7x 10.0x 9.1x 17.4% Apparel and Fashion Active Apparel and Footwear RetailAccessories Sectors ($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA 30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin Apparel and Fashion
  • 10. Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017 Page 10 Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of September 30, 2017. Represents most actively traded public active apparel and footwear companies ($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA 30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin Active Apparel & Footwear Adidas AG $226.25 95.2% $45,851 $46,446 1.87x 1.81x 1.65x NM 16.0x 13.7x 9.2% ASICS Corporation 14.88 66.0% 2,825 2,812 0.81x 0.77x 0.74x 9.8x 9.6x 8.8x 8.2% Billabong International Limited 0.41 36.0% 81 197 0.26x NA NA 5.0x NM NM 5.1% Columbia Sportswear Company 61.58 96.9% 4,295 3,698 1.54x 1.51x 1.44x 11.6x 11.4x 10.6x 13.3% Crocs, Inc. 9.70 98.5% 696 722 0.71x 0.71x 0.71x 17.5x 14.0x 9.0x 4.1% Deckers Outdoor Corporation 68.41 94.1% 2,189 1,942 1.06x 1.10x 1.08x 8.6x 8.5x 8.0x 12.4% Lululemon Athletica Inc. 62.25 85.6% 8,428 7,706 3.16x 2.98x 2.70x 14.8x 13.7x 12.2x 21.3% NIKE, Inc. 51.85 85.7% 85,106 83,401 2.43x 2.41x 2.25x 15.6x 16.8x 14.5x 15.6% PUMA SE 388.22 88.4% 5,800 5,636 1.22x 1.16x 1.06x 19.0x 16.5x 13.2x 6.4% Skechers U.S.A., Inc. 25.09 83.6% 3,975 3,402 0.89x 0.84x 0.76x 7.9x 7.9x 6.4x 11.3% Under Armour, Inc. 16.48 42.0% 7,267 8,057 1.62x 1.54x 1.39x 15.3x 17.8x 15.8x 10.6% V.F. Corporation 63.57 98.5% 25,023 27,636 2.30x 2.34x 2.18x 14.8x 14.5x 13.5x 15.6% Wolverine World Wide, Inc. 28.85 98.8% 2,788 3,189 1.26x 1.36x 1.38x 11.8x 10.7x 10.1x 10.7% Median 88.4% $4,295 $3,698 1.26x 1.43x 1.38x 13.3x 13.8x 11.4x 10.7% Mean 82.3% $14,948 $14,988 1.47x 1.55x 1.44x 12.6x 13.1x 11.3x 11.1% Public Apparel Valuations Apparel and Fashion Active Apparel and Footwear RetailAccessories Sectors ($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA 30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin Active Apparel and Footwear
  • 11. Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017 Page 11 Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of September 30, 2017. Represents most actively traded accessories companies ($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA 30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin Accessories Coach, Inc. $40.28 82.5% $11,390 $9,886 2.20x 1.89x 1.65x 9.9x 8.6x 7.4x 22.3% Essilor International Société Anonyme 123.80 85.8% 26,485 29,649 3.37x 3.31x 3.15x 14.5x 14.3x 13.3x 23.2% Fossil Group, Inc. 9.33 25.3% 453 791 0.28x 0.28x 0.29x 4.4x 5.3x 4.7x 6.2% Luxottica Group S.p.A. 55.89 82.2% 26,741 28,009 2.55x 2.55x 2.43x 11.8x 11.9x 11.2x 21.7% Movado Group, Inc. 28.00 87.6% 643 510 0.95x 0.95x 0.92x 8.8x 7.5x 7.3x 10.8% Pandora A/S 98.71 66.3% 10,883 11,459 3.40x 3.15x 2.81x 9.0x 8.4x 7.5x 37.9% Compagnie Financière Richemont SA 104.60 99.6% 59,079 52,247 4.15x 4.00x 3.80x NM 17.2x 15.3x 19.7% Safilo Group S.p.A. 6.68 55.7% 419 552 0.40x 0.43x 0.41x NM 8.7x 5.9x 1.4% Tiffany & Co. 91.78 94.3% 11,428 11,516 2.85x 2.82x 2.70x 11.9x 11.6x 10.8x 24.0% Vera Bradley, Inc. 8.81 55.5% 317 232 0.49x 0.50x 0.56x 4.7x 5.0x 4.8x 10.6% Median 82.3% $11,137 $10,672 2.38x 2.22x 2.04x 9.4x 8.7x 7.4x 20.7% Mean 73.5% $14,784 $14,485 2.07x 1.99x 1.87x 9.4x 9.8x 8.8x 17.8% Public Apparel Valuations Apparel and Fashion Active Apparel and Footwear RetailAccessories Sectors
  • 12. Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017 Page 12 Public Apparel Retailer Valuations Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of September 30, 2017. Represents most actively traded department stores, mass and club retailers ($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA 30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin Department The Bon-Ton Stores, Inc. $0.43 21.7% $9 $990 0.38x NA NA 9.1x NM NM 4.2% Dillard's, Inc. 56.07 67.2% 1,627 2,310 0.37x 0.37x 0.38x 4.6x 4.9x 5.1x 8.0% Hudson's Bay Company 10.17 73.3% 1,857 5,238 0.45x 0.45x 0.44x 18.5x 13.0x 11.0x 2.5% J. C. Penney Company, Inc. 3.81 35.5% 1,184 5,178 0.41x 0.42x 0.43x 5.8x 4.9x 5.2x 7.1% Macy's, Inc. 21.82 48.1% 6,645 12,174 0.49x 0.49x 0.51x 4.6x 4.2x 4.8x 10.6% Nordstrom, Inc. 47.15 75.1% 7,838 9,659 0.64x 0.63x 0.62x 5.7x 6.0x 5.9x 11.3% Stage Stores, Inc. 1.84 31.3% 51 252 0.17x 0.16x 0.16x 8.6x 9.1x 5.6x 2.0% Stein Mart, Inc. 1.30 18.8% 62 222 0.17x NA NA NM NM NM 0.0% Kohl's Corporation 45.65 76.5% 7,696 11,710 0.63x 0.63x 0.64x 5.1x 5.1x 5.3x 12.5% Median 48.1% $1,627 $5,178 0.41x 0.45x 0.44x 5.8x 5.1x 5.3x 7.1% Mean 49.7% $2,997 $5,304 0.41x 0.45x 0.45x 7.7x 6.8x 6.1x 6.5% ($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA 30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin Mass & Club Amazon.com, Inc. $961.35 88.7% $461,813 $463,981 3.09x 2.67x 2.10x NM NM 19.1x 8.2% Best Buy Co., Inc. 56.96 90.0% 17,042 14,743 0.37x 0.36x 0.36x 5.9x 5.6x 5.7x 6.2% Costco Wholesale Corporation 164.29 89.7% 72,056 70,597 0.57x 0.54x 0.51x 13.6x 12.8x 11.9x 4.2% Target Corporation 59.01 74.4% 32,233 42,188 0.61x 0.60x 0.60x 5.9x 6.4x 6.5x 10.3% Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. 78.14 95.3% 233,420 277,602 0.57x 0.56x 0.55x 8.4x 8.4x 8.3x 6.7% Median 89.7% $72,056 $70,597 0.57x 0.56x 0.55x 7.2x 7.4x 8.3x 6.7% Mean 87.6% $163,313 $173,822 1.04x 0.95x 0.82x 8.5x 8.3x 10.3x 7.1% Apparel and Fashion Active Apparel and Footwear RetailAccessories Sectors ($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA 30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin Mass and Club
  • 13. Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017 Page 13 Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of September 30, 2017. Represents most actively traded public off-price and specialty retailers ($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA 30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin Off-Price Ross Stores, Inc. $64.57 92.5% $24,898 $24,143 1.81x 1.73x 1.65x 11.0x 10.4x 9.8x 16.4% The TJX Companies, Inc. 73.73 91.1% 46,912 46,190 1.36x 1.29x 1.22x 10.2x 9.7x 9.2x 13.3% Burlington Stores, Inc. 95.46 91.7% 6,584 7,830 1.36x 1.29x 1.21x 13.1x 11.5x 10.3x 10.4% Median 91.7% $24,898 $24,143 1.36x 1.29x 1.22x 11.0x 10.4x 9.8x 13.3% Mean 91.8% $26,131 $26,054 1.51x 1.44x 1.36x 11.4x 10.5x 9.8x 13.4% ($ in millions, except per share data) Stock Enterprise Value as a Multiple of LTM Price % of Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA EBITDA 30-Sep-17 52 Wk High Value Value LTM 2017E 2018E LTM 2017E 2018E Margin Specialty Retail Abercrombie & Fitch Co. $14.44 83.2% $983 $883 0.27x 0.27x 0.27x 4.9x 4.0x 4.4x 5.5% American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. $14.30 75.3% $2,532 $2,339 0.64x 0.63x 0.62x 4.9x 5.0x 4.8x 13.2% Ascena Retail Group, Inc. $2.45 29.9% $471 $1,682 0.25x 0.26x 0.27x 3.1x 3.3x 3.1x 8.2% Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. $8.90 51.6% $237 $483 0.76x 0.74x 0.69x 8.6x 8.3x 8.0x 8.8% The Buckle, Inc. $16.85 62.2% $812 $569 0.61x 0.63x 0.65x 3.4x 3.8x 4.2x 18.0% Chico's FAS, Inc. $8.95 53.1% $1,148 $1,038 0.44x 0.46x 0.47x 4.0x 4.4x 4.3x 11.0% DSW Inc. $21.48 82.7% $1,726 $1,455 0.53x 0.52x 0.51x 5.4x 5.2x 5.1x 9.8% The Finish Line, Inc. $12.03 49.1% $484 $369 0.20x 0.20x 0.20x 3.9x 3.9x 4.4x 5.2% Foot Locker, Inc. $35.22 44.3% $4,367 $3,450 0.45x 0.45x 0.45x 3.3x 3.6x 3.7x 13.8% The Gap, Inc. $29.53 96.1% $11,580 $11,219 0.73x 0.72x 0.72x 5.6x 5.8x 5.8x 13.0% Genesco Inc. $26.60 36.9% $530 $680 0.24x 0.24x 0.23x 3.7x 3.7x 3.6x 6.5% L Brands, Inc. $41.61 55.1% $11,811 $16,221 1.32x 1.31x 1.27x 6.9x 7.1x 6.9x 19.1% Urban Outfitters, Inc. $23.90 58.6% $2,625 $2,238 0.63x 0.63x 0.62x 5.5x 5.7x 5.5x 11.6% Zumiez Inc. $18.10 68.2% $457 $386 0.45x 0.43x 0.42x 5.8x 5.6x 5.2x 7.8% Median 56.8% $1,066 $1,246 0.49x 0.49x 0.49x 4.9x 4.7x 4.6x 10.4% Mean 60.5% $2,840 $3,072 0.54x 0.53x 0.53x 4.9x 5.0x 4.9x 10.8% Public Apparel Retailer Valuations
  • 14. Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017 Page 14 5.0x 7.0x 9.0x 11.0x 13.0x 15.0x 17.0x Apparel and Fashion Active Apparel and Footwear Accessories 12.6x 14.0x 12.4x 13.2x 12.8x 11.9x 10.1x 12.1x 10.9x 11.5x 13.1x 10.4x 10.6x 12.7x 9.4x 2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM Mean: 11.0x Mean: 12.9x Mean: 11.6x Historical Public Apparel Trends Enterprise Value as a Multiple of EBITDA(1) (1) Index calculation excludes any companies with non-meaningful trading multiples Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence; LTM values as of 9/30/2017. Represents most actively traded public apparel, footwear and accessories companies
  • 15. Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017 Page 15 3.0x 5.0x 7.0x 9.0x 11.0x 13.0x 15.0x Mass and Club Department Off-Price Specialty Retail 8.7x 7.9x 11.0x 7.6x 9.6x 8.8x 11.9x 8.3x8.4x 6.8x 11.0x 6.5x 8.3x 7.8x 12.4x 6.1x 8.6x 7.7x 11.4x 4.9x 2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM Mean: 11.5x Mean: 8.7x Historical Public Apparel Retailer Trends Enterprise Value as a Multiple of EBITDA(1) (1) Index calculation excludes any companies with non-meaningful trading multiples Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence; LTM values as of 9/30/2017. Represents most actively traded public apparel, footwear and accessories retailers Mean: 7.8x Mean: 6.7x
  • 16. Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017 Page 16 Selected Duff & PhelpsApparel andAccessoriesTransactions *Transactions completed by professionals of Duff & Phelps Securities, LLC while at previous firms Transaction Advisory Sell Side Advisor Buy Side Advisor has acquired Sell Side Advisor has been acquired by has received a significant investment from Financial and tax due diligence Solvency Opinion J. Crew Group, Inc., a portfolio company of TPG Capital and Leonard Green & Partners, has completed a leveraged dividend recapitalization transaction Financial Advisor The Eileen Fisher, Inc. Employee Stock Ownership Plan has acquired a minority interest in Eileen Fisher, Inc. Financial and tax due diligence Transaction Advisory has received a significant investment from Sell Side Advisor* has received a significant investment from Sell Side Advisor Exclusive financial advisor to Most Retail Group Most Retail Group has been acquired by Levi Strauss & Co. has been acquired by DR Capital Sell Side Advisor* has received a significant investment from Sell Side Advisor* has received a significant investment from Private Placement* has been recapitalized by Private Placement has completed a debt financing transaction with Sell Side Advisor* has been acquired by a portfolio company of Solvency Opinion a portfolio company of Leveraged dividend recapitalization
  • 17. Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017 Page 17 Contact Us For more information, please visit: www.duffandphelps.com Duff & Phelps is the premier global valuation and corporate finance advisor with expertise in complex valuation, disputes and investigations, M&A, real estate, restructuring, and compliance and regulatory consulting. The firm’s more than 2,500 employees serve a diverse range of clients from offices around the world. M&A advisory, capital raising and secondary market advisory services in the United States are provided by Duff & Phelps Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. Pagemill Partners is a Division of Duff & Phelps Securities, LLC. M&A advisory and capital raising services in Canada are provided by Duff & Phelps Securities Canada Ltd., a registered Exempt Market Dealer. M&A advisory and capital raising services in the United Kingdom and across Europe are provided by Duff & Phelps Securities Ltd. (DPSL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. In Germany, M&A advisory and capital raising services are also provided by Duff & Phelps GmbH, which is a Tied Agent of DPSL. Valuation Advisory Services in India are provided by Duff & Phelps India Private Limited under a category 1 merchant banker license issued by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. About Duff & Phelps Copyright © 2017 Duff & Phelps LLC. All rights reserved. Duff & Phelps Apparel Quarterly Update | Late Fall 2017 Corporate Finance Valuation Services Transaction Advisory Services Edward Mielke Managing Director (212) 450-2876 ed.mielke@duffandphelps.com Jared Brenner Vice President (310) 598-4368 jared.brenner@duffandphelps.com Myron Marcinkowski Managing Director (678) 916-2500 myron.marcinkowski@duffandphelps.com Raphael Newman Managing Director (212) 871-2000 raphael.newman@duffandphelps.com Joshua Benn Head of Consumer Corporate Finance (212) 450-2840 joshua.benn@duffandphelps.com Brian Little Managing Director (310) 598-4358 brian.little@duffandphelps.com