Andrew Walter (London - Dec 2010)
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Global imbalances were much smaller during the Bretton Woods era compared to the post-Bretton Woods period, when US external and internal imbalances deteriorated seriously. The Bretton Woods system only indirectly constrained global imbalances through pegged exchange rates and capital controls. There was no lasting agreement on symmetric adjustment responsibilities between surplus and deficit countries or on the deflationary bias of reserve centers like the US. Unilateralism undermined IMF surveillance, and both the US and major surplus countries refused special responsibilities, contributing to failures that still impact negotiations over global imbalances today.
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The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression that took place mostly during the 1930s, originating in the United States. The document discusses several key causes and events of the Great Depression including the stock market crash of 1929, a decline in the money supply, policy decisions like the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, and the effects of abandoning the gold standard. John Maynard Keynes advocated for policies like deficit spending to stimulate the economy in response to the Depression. Roosevelt's New Deal programs attempted to address unemployment and stabilize the banking system through acts like the National Industrial Recovery Act.
Why Today Is Different From The Great Depression
While there are some similarities between today's financial crisis and the Great Depression, such as excessive debt and asset price deflation, there are also key differences:
1) The economic contraction today is far less severe, with estimates of unemployment peaking at around 10% compared to 25% during the Depression.
2) The banking system, while distressed, is not near collapse as hundreds of banks failed during the Depression due to lack of deposit insurance.
3) Monetary policy response has been extraordinary, with the Federal Reserve taking ambitious action unlike the passive role during the 1930s.
4) Government policy response has already been more forceful than in the early years of the Depression, enacting stimulus packages, bank
Global f inancial crisis
The global financial crisis originated from deregulation of financial markets and the subprime mortgage crisis in the US. As subprime mortgages defaulted, major financial institutions collapsed, slowing global economic growth. This will negatively impact developing countries through reduced trade, investment, and aid. Commodity prices are declining, hurting resource exporters. To protect human development, countries must maintain education and health budgets, focus on inequality, and coordinate macroeconomic policies internationally to moderate the crisis's effects on the poor.
Obstfeld acrcpolak2014
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arifanee.com is world's leading website on the hottest financial news, perspectives and behind the scenes stories. arifanees.com brings you insight and information to inspire and transform your paradigm by enriching your with the best of facts and the vision.
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The Gold Standard, Deflation, and Financial Crisis in the Great Depression: A...
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Ipe03
The document discusses several topics related to international political economy, including:
1) Exchange rates and the international monetary system, including maintaining currency convertibility and exchange rate stability.
2) Key definitions like balance of trade, balance of payments, and structural imbalances in trade balances.
3) The role and impact of key currencies like the US dollar in international trade and reserves.
4) Historical events and agreements that impacted exchange rates, including the Nixon Shock of 1971 and Plaza Accord of 1985.
5) Recent issues like the global financial crisis of 2008 and China's trade surplus with the US.
The Great Recession
The Great Recession document summarizes the causes and effects of the late-2000s financial crisis and recession in the United States. It discusses how a housing bubble fueled by subprime lending burst, triggering a credit crunch and widespread economic impacts. The recession resulted in job losses, rising unemployment, and high foreclosure rates. Government responses included stimulus packages under Presidents Bush and Obama, as well as financial bailouts. The recovery was predicted to be slow due to persistent effects of financial crises on economic growth.
Copelovitch slides
This document provides an overview of the global financial crisis, including its causes in the subprime mortgage lending boom and bust in the United States, the effects on credit markets and the real economy, and policy responses both domestically and internationally. It discusses the difficulties in policymaking given tradeoffs between liquidity and moral hazard, regulation and competitiveness, and domestic and international priorities. While reform goals are broadly agreed upon, specific policies and institutions face disagreement due to these complex tradeoffs and competing political interests among nations.
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The IMF and World Bank were established at Bretton Woods in 1944 to promote international monetary cooperation and economic development. The Bretton Woods system established fixed exchange rates pegged to the US dollar and gold. It aimed to maintain internal and external balance but collapsed in the 1970s due to worldwide inflation and US monetary policy. The IMF now monitors global financial stability and provides loans to countries with balance of payments issues.
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Helmut Reisen (London - Dec 2010)
This document discusses the G20's adoption of a development agenda at their 2010 Toronto Summit for two main reasons. First, the G20 wanted to maintain its relevance after successfully addressing the global financial crisis by shifting its focus to long-term development issues. Second, the G20's legitimacy and authority have been increasingly challenged by excluded nation-states, so promoting development can help address these concerns. The document introduces a collection of papers that were presented at a conference on how the G20 can best promote pro-poor growth and sustainability through its new development agenda.
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The document discusses cooperation vs unilateral intervention in international economics. It argues that while countries agree on goals like global growth and rebalancing, individual countries prioritize domestic goals which can lead to policy spillovers and retaliation that result in suboptimal outcomes. Cooperation through forums like the G20 faces challenges due to diverging economic performance among members and lack of enforcement. Regional arrangements and integration can facilitate cooperation where interests converge. Overall, cooperation requires addressing policy spillovers and providing credible incentives and commitments to avoid outcomes where all countries are worse off.
Mark Thirwell (Beijing Sept 2010)
1) The Plaza Accord of 1985 aimed to address global imbalances between the US and Japan but its success is debated and relied on a specific geopolitical context no longer present.
2) International policy coordination to address today's global imbalances faces significant challenges, including lack of agreement on the nature of the problem, targets for adjustment, and appropriate policy tools. Negotiating an acceptable deal and enforcing it will be difficult.
3) While coordination could theoretically benefit countries by addressing spillovers, in practice the heterogeneous membership of the G20 and difficulties delivering on commitments may prevent an effective agreement from being reached and enforced.
Paolo Guerrieri (Beijing Sept 2010)
1) The global recovery since 2009 has been driven by stimulus but underlying structural issues remain, including weak banks and the need for fiscal austerity. Global imbalances are rising again and current account deficits/surpluses pose risks to financial stability.
2) While East Asia recovered strongly from the crisis and is recalibrating growth models, the region remains highly dependent on exports and external demand. A shift to domestic/intra-regional growth will be difficult and gradual.
3) Persistent imbalances increase risks of stagnation if surplus countries like China and Germany do not boost domestic demand. Global coordination of economic policies faces challenges in overcoming national interests and distributing adjustment costs.
Geng Xiao (additional - 2009)
The document discusses steps the U.S., China, and Japan should take before the next G20 meeting to address the global financial crisis. It proposes:
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2) Creating a group of allied global central banks including the Fed, PBOC, and BOJ to provide currency swaps and act as a global lender of last resort.
3) Having global sovereign funds recapitalize key global corporations through partial nationalization to restore market confidence.
The document argues this U.S.-China-Japan agreement would provide a foundation for the larger G20 nations
Edward Chen (Beijing Sept 2010)
The document discusses global economic imbalances and the need for coordinated policy responses. It notes that while current account imbalances between countries like China, Japan, Germany and the US/UK have existed since the late 1990s, financial crises are more directly related to issues like financial deregulation. While market forces could help rebalance economies, coordinated policy actions are needed to avoid painful adjustments through deflation and depression. The document advocates for policies like increasing consumption in surplus countries through fiscal stimulus and financial development, encouraging private savings in deficit nations through tax incentives, and promoting export-led growth through coordinated exchange rate policies and supply-side reforms. It also calls for establishing a new international financial system and global governance framework to facilitate coordinated responses
Geng Xiao (Beijing Sept 2010)
China faces macroeconomic challenges including surplus labor and capital, price distortions, and volatility in property and stock markets. There are around 481 million unskilled rural and migrant workers in China who face unemployment if they cannot find jobs in cities. China also has surplus capital due to price controls and state ownership in many sectors that lead to overinvestment. China's inflation and currency appreciation act as substitutes to gradually increase its domestic price levels relative to other nations over the long run. An "inflation-first, appreciation-second" strategy would help China avoid risks of deflation or excessive inflation as its economy develops.
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Date: May 29, 2024
Tags: Information Security, ISO/IEC 27001, ISO/IEC 42001, Artificial Intelligence, GDPR
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- 1. Global imbalances – lessons from Bretton Woods? Andrew Walter, LSE
- 3. Current account balances, % world GDP, 1970-2009 Source: World Bank, WDI
- 4. US imbalances & inflation, 1960-2009 Source: Economic Report of the President database.
- 5. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
- 6. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
- 8. Modest exchange rate adjustments major currencies vs. US$ 1955-1973 (3 Jan 1960=100)