1) The Plaza Accord of 1985 aimed to address global imbalances between the US and Japan but its success is debated and relied on a specific geopolitical context no longer present.
2) International policy coordination to address today's global imbalances faces significant challenges, including lack of agreement on the nature of the problem, targets for adjustment, and appropriate policy tools. Negotiating an acceptable deal and enforcing it will be difficult.
3) While coordination could theoretically benefit countries by addressing spillovers, in practice the heterogeneous membership of the G20 and difficulties delivering on commitments may prevent an effective agreement from being reached and enforced.
This document summarizes and compares approaches to addressing global macroeconomic imbalances, specifically the Plaza Accord of 1985 and the current Geithner/Summers strategy.
The Plaza Accord negotiated coordinated exchange rate movements and accompanying macroeconomic policy adjustments between countries. The Geithner/Summers strategy also combines these elements, but differs in focusing on China's exchange rate and domestic reforms rather than the dollar. Key similarities include negotiating exchange rates and policies simultaneously, but details of current macro policy coordination are lacking compared to Plaza.
The document provides an analysis of the constraints of the Bretton Woods system and lessons that can be learned from it. It discusses how the system was set up for failure because it paid little attention to governance issues and failed to instill collective action among members. While the Bretton Woods system delivered low inflation and growth during its existence, it ultimately collapsed due to internal imbalances and a lack of accountability. The document examines what aspects of Bretton Woods still resonate today and implications for designing future international financial systems.
Rumpelstiltskin at the Fed by Harley Bassman, PIMCO, executive vice presiden...Nigel Mark Dias
Rumpelstiltskin at the Fed by Harley Bassman, PIMCO, executive vice president & portfolio manager
SUMMARY
Has the Federal Reserve reached the bottom of its policy toolkit? Many things are still possible, at least in theory, including negative interest rates (which we believe would be ineffective and potentially harmful) or a “helicopter drop” of money. Another option is to resurrect a successful plan from 83 years ago: Purchase a tremendous amount of gold at a price substantially higher than market levels.
A massive Fed gold purchase program might finally lift the anchor on inflationary expectations and consumers’ spending habits. It would increase the price of a globally recognized store of value. It almost sounds like a fairy tale – but it’s happened before.
Though it seems incredibly farfetched, a massive Fed gold purchase program could echo a Depression-era effort that effectively boosted the U.S. economy.
Warren Buffett famously railed against the shiny yellow metal in 2012 when he noted all the gold in the world could be swapped for the totality of U.S. cropland and seven ExxonMobils with $1 trillion left over for “walking-around money.” His point was that these assets can generate significant returns while owning gold produces no discernable cash flow.
While this observation is certainly true, the rub is that this is not a fair comparison since gold is not an asset; rather, it should be considered an alternate currency. Pundits often describe the five factors that define “money”:
Its supply is controlled or limited,
It is fungible/uniform – this is why diamonds cannot qualify,
It is portable – this is why land cannot qualify,
It is divisible – thus art cannot be money, and
It is liquid – this means people will readily accept it in exchange.
By this definition, gold is certainly a form of money, and to Mr. Buffett’s point, one also earns no cash flow on paper dollars, euros, yen or yuan.
Credibility Of Optimal Monetary Delegationrafaeldepp
This document summarizes an academic article from The American Economic Review about the credibility of optimal monetary policy delegation. The key points are:
1) There is a dynamic inconsistency problem with discretionary monetary policy, as governments have an incentive to create surprise inflation.
2) Some theories propose delegating monetary policy to an independent central bank to overcome this problem. However, the document argues delegation does not fully resolve the issue if it can be changed without costs.
3) The document presents a model where monetary delegation is a strategic choice. It finds that "reappointment costs" for changing delegation improve outcomes but do not fully resolve the dynamic inconsistency. Optimal policy is also less credible with these costs.
Economic Growth and Inequality: The New Post-Washington Consensus, September ...Africa Cheetah Run
Economic growth is an increase in the amount of goods and services produced per head of the population over a period of time. The impact of government investment on growth and inequality are shown to contrast sharply in the two approaches, thus illustrating the complexity of the growth-inequality relationship.
Barack Wins Scenarios By Gerald Harris2Gerald Harris
1. The Underfunded Agenda scenario describes a world with a long global recession that requires cooperation between political parties to find solutions. President Obama compromises on some promises due to economic conditions but oversees a withdrawal from wars and rebuilding of defense spending. By his second term, the economy is growing again.
2. The One Term Nightmare scenario involves a sharp prolonged global recession that increases division and protectionism. Obama faces ineffective cabinet members and delays to healthcare and energy policies due to economic problems and partisan attacks.
3. The Waste of Vision scenario has the economy avoiding collapse through policy intervention, but partisan fighting and cultural divisions waste time on issues like healthcare and energy.
4. The Dream Emer
La Historia Del Consenso De Washington Por John Williamsonneiracar
The document provides a history of the term "Washington Consensus" which was coined by the author in 1989 to describe 10 specific economic policies that were widely accepted as necessary reforms for Latin American countries. The term became controversial as it was seen as implying reforms were being imposed by Washington rather than adopted voluntarily. While the policies aimed to achieve goals like fiscal discipline, the term downplayed remaining disagreements and failed to capture the broader convergence of views beyond Washington. It also overstated the consensus on some issues like exchange rates.
The document discusses cooperation vs unilateral intervention in international economics. It argues that while countries agree on goals like global growth and rebalancing, individual countries prioritize domestic goals which can lead to policy spillovers and retaliation that result in suboptimal outcomes. Cooperation through forums like the G20 faces challenges due to diverging economic performance among members and lack of enforcement. Regional arrangements and integration can facilitate cooperation where interests converge. Overall, cooperation requires addressing policy spillovers and providing credible incentives and commitments to avoid outcomes where all countries are worse off.
This document summarizes and compares approaches to addressing global macroeconomic imbalances, specifically the Plaza Accord of 1985 and the current Geithner/Summers strategy.
The Plaza Accord negotiated coordinated exchange rate movements and accompanying macroeconomic policy adjustments between countries. The Geithner/Summers strategy also combines these elements, but differs in focusing on China's exchange rate and domestic reforms rather than the dollar. Key similarities include negotiating exchange rates and policies simultaneously, but details of current macro policy coordination are lacking compared to Plaza.
The document provides an analysis of the constraints of the Bretton Woods system and lessons that can be learned from it. It discusses how the system was set up for failure because it paid little attention to governance issues and failed to instill collective action among members. While the Bretton Woods system delivered low inflation and growth during its existence, it ultimately collapsed due to internal imbalances and a lack of accountability. The document examines what aspects of Bretton Woods still resonate today and implications for designing future international financial systems.
Rumpelstiltskin at the Fed by Harley Bassman, PIMCO, executive vice presiden...Nigel Mark Dias
Rumpelstiltskin at the Fed by Harley Bassman, PIMCO, executive vice president & portfolio manager
SUMMARY
Has the Federal Reserve reached the bottom of its policy toolkit? Many things are still possible, at least in theory, including negative interest rates (which we believe would be ineffective and potentially harmful) or a “helicopter drop” of money. Another option is to resurrect a successful plan from 83 years ago: Purchase a tremendous amount of gold at a price substantially higher than market levels.
A massive Fed gold purchase program might finally lift the anchor on inflationary expectations and consumers’ spending habits. It would increase the price of a globally recognized store of value. It almost sounds like a fairy tale – but it’s happened before.
Though it seems incredibly farfetched, a massive Fed gold purchase program could echo a Depression-era effort that effectively boosted the U.S. economy.
Warren Buffett famously railed against the shiny yellow metal in 2012 when he noted all the gold in the world could be swapped for the totality of U.S. cropland and seven ExxonMobils with $1 trillion left over for “walking-around money.” His point was that these assets can generate significant returns while owning gold produces no discernable cash flow.
While this observation is certainly true, the rub is that this is not a fair comparison since gold is not an asset; rather, it should be considered an alternate currency. Pundits often describe the five factors that define “money”:
Its supply is controlled or limited,
It is fungible/uniform – this is why diamonds cannot qualify,
It is portable – this is why land cannot qualify,
It is divisible – thus art cannot be money, and
It is liquid – this means people will readily accept it in exchange.
By this definition, gold is certainly a form of money, and to Mr. Buffett’s point, one also earns no cash flow on paper dollars, euros, yen or yuan.
Credibility Of Optimal Monetary Delegationrafaeldepp
This document summarizes an academic article from The American Economic Review about the credibility of optimal monetary policy delegation. The key points are:
1) There is a dynamic inconsistency problem with discretionary monetary policy, as governments have an incentive to create surprise inflation.
2) Some theories propose delegating monetary policy to an independent central bank to overcome this problem. However, the document argues delegation does not fully resolve the issue if it can be changed without costs.
3) The document presents a model where monetary delegation is a strategic choice. It finds that "reappointment costs" for changing delegation improve outcomes but do not fully resolve the dynamic inconsistency. Optimal policy is also less credible with these costs.
Economic Growth and Inequality: The New Post-Washington Consensus, September ...Africa Cheetah Run
Economic growth is an increase in the amount of goods and services produced per head of the population over a period of time. The impact of government investment on growth and inequality are shown to contrast sharply in the two approaches, thus illustrating the complexity of the growth-inequality relationship.
Barack Wins Scenarios By Gerald Harris2Gerald Harris
1. The Underfunded Agenda scenario describes a world with a long global recession that requires cooperation between political parties to find solutions. President Obama compromises on some promises due to economic conditions but oversees a withdrawal from wars and rebuilding of defense spending. By his second term, the economy is growing again.
2. The One Term Nightmare scenario involves a sharp prolonged global recession that increases division and protectionism. Obama faces ineffective cabinet members and delays to healthcare and energy policies due to economic problems and partisan attacks.
3. The Waste of Vision scenario has the economy avoiding collapse through policy intervention, but partisan fighting and cultural divisions waste time on issues like healthcare and energy.
4. The Dream Emer
La Historia Del Consenso De Washington Por John Williamsonneiracar
The document provides a history of the term "Washington Consensus" which was coined by the author in 1989 to describe 10 specific economic policies that were widely accepted as necessary reforms for Latin American countries. The term became controversial as it was seen as implying reforms were being imposed by Washington rather than adopted voluntarily. While the policies aimed to achieve goals like fiscal discipline, the term downplayed remaining disagreements and failed to capture the broader convergence of views beyond Washington. It also overstated the consensus on some issues like exchange rates.
The document discusses cooperation vs unilateral intervention in international economics. It argues that while countries agree on goals like global growth and rebalancing, individual countries prioritize domestic goals which can lead to policy spillovers and retaliation that result in suboptimal outcomes. Cooperation through forums like the G20 faces challenges due to diverging economic performance among members and lack of enforcement. Regional arrangements and integration can facilitate cooperation where interests converge. Overall, cooperation requires addressing policy spillovers and providing credible incentives and commitments to avoid outcomes where all countries are worse off.
This document discusses lessons from the global financial crisis for monetary and financial policy. It makes three key points:
1) Monetary policy can still be expansionary even when interest rates hit zero, through quantitative easing and credit easing measures.
2) The crisis showed the critical importance of a strong, robust financial system for withstanding economic downturns. Countries without financial crises fared better.
3) There is a need for macroprudential supervision that looks at systemic risks across the entire financial system, but tools for this are still limited, relying largely on existing microprudential tools adapted for macro purposes. Coordination across supervisory agencies is also important.
1) The US recovery in the 1930s was rapid until 1937, when unemployment surged again due to a switch to contractionary fiscal and monetary policy that prolonged the Depression.
2) In 1937, fiscal stimulus from veterans bonuses and Social Security taxes disappeared, reducing the deficit by 2.5% of GDP. Additionally, the Federal Reserve doubled bank reserve requirements, unintentionally causing banks to reduce lending and precipitating recession.
3) The author argues that policymakers today must learn from 1937 and resist prematurely withdrawing stimulus until the economy reaches full employment to avoid derailing the recovery.
- In the late 1980s, Japan's economy grew rapidly but then experienced a "lost decade" of stagnation in the 1990s due to an asset bubble fueled by easy credit policies.
- The Bank of Japan attempted to stimulate the economy through low interest rates, but this helped create a real estate and stock market bubble that burst in the early 1990s.
- The bursting of the bubble devastated bank balance sheets through non-performing loans and led households and firms to focus on reducing debt rather than spending, exacerbating the economic downturn.
Monetary policy is an important public policy, but it is not the only one to stabilize our economy and reduce its business cycles. The leading central bank, the Federal Reserve of the U.S., has introduced, after the 2008 global financial crisis, new instruments and unusual facilities to implement its new innovative monetary policy. The financial world and mostly the social scientists watch as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decides on a target interest rate in the federal funds market for the next period. The framework that the FOMC uses to implement monetary policy has changed over the last twelve years and continues to evolve today. Here, we try to evaluate the new instruments and their “effectiveness”. Before the 2008 financial crisis, policymakers used one set of traditional instruments (tools) to achieve the target rate. However, several policy interventions, introduced soon after the crisis, drastically altered the landscape of the federal funds market and the traditional economic theory. This new and uncertain environment, with enormous reserves and even interest on reserves, necessitated a new set of instruments by the Fed for its monetary policy implementation. Lately, after seven years of zero interest rate, the FOMC began in December 2015 to increase the target rate and then, went back again to a lower one, but many questions arise. How did they evaluate the effectiveness of these new instruments? Is the current federal funds rate the appropriate one for our economic wellbeing? How efficient was so far this ZIR monetary policy after the latest global financial crisis? Why the Fed put all these burdens of its ‘innovated” new monetary policy to the poor taxpayers (bail out) and to the risk-averse depositors (bail in)? Is it possible for the Fed’s policy to prevent the future financial crises? The federal funds rate was very low and affected negatively the financial markets (bubbles were growing), the real rates of interest (it is negative for twelve years), and the deposit rates (they are closed to zero for twelve years). The redistribution of wealth of depositors and taxpayers continues, which means the true economic welfare is falling and a new global recession was in preparation, if the current unfair easy money policy will persist, ignoring the necessity of a prevention of financial crises. Then, it came as an unexpected plague the coronavirus pandemic, following with a new but, the worse in economic history global crisis (chaos).
Hank Moore is a corporate strategist who has advised over 5,000 client organizations, including Fortune 500 companies. He advises on growth strategies, strategic planning, leadership development, and how to navigate business cycles and economic recessions. The document reviews past US recessions since the 1960s and their differing causes, such as the 1973 oil crisis and stock market crash, the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and 1990s, and the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s. While each recession has unique characteristics, the overall message is that recessions are a normal part of the economic cycle and the stock market and economy will eventually recover from the current downturn.
The document summarizes the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath. It discusses how excess leverage and easy credit led to the crisis. It then describes the massive fiscal and monetary responses by governments to counter the recession. Finally, it outlines a new investment strategy focused on bonds, hedging risks, and adapting to long-term volatility in a more regulated post-crisis economic environment.
The document discusses applying concepts of situational awareness (SA) to investing in alternative investments such as hedge funds. SA involves perceiving elements in one's environment, comprehending their meaning, and projecting their future status. The document outlines applying SA's three levels - acquiring data, evaluating the data to create an understanding, and projecting future states - to gain knowledge about macroeconomic conditions, the alternative investment industry, and individual managers. This framework can help differentiate investment choices and ensure accurate mental models are used for decision making.
Ss china the us & currencies harvard kennedy school presentationMarcus Vannini
- The document discusses currency issues between China, the US, and the RMB. It argues that China should allow gradual appreciation of the RMB for several reasons, including avoiding overheating of the Chinese economy and making exchange rate policy an effective tool for balancing internal and external economic conditions.
- It also discusses criticisms of US twin deficits and theories around sustainable current account deficits. The global monetary system is shifting from a dollar-based system to one with multiple international reserve currencies.
The US dollar is experiencing its strongest rally since 1984 against other major currencies as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates while other central banks continue monetary easing. There is little international coordination to respond to the dollar's rise, unlike in 1985 when the Plaza Accord was signed by major economies to weaken the dollar. The G20 meeting in Turkey ended without agreement on responding to global economic issues like China's slowing economy. Experts say the loss of regular communication between economic officials has reduced coordination capabilities. While the G7 may still intervene in currency markets, the Fed's isolation could increase pressure to delay interest rate hikes to protect the US economy from the dollar's strength.
The document provides commentary from OceanForest Investment Partners on the third quarter of 2011. Key points from interviews with Warren Buffett and a panel of experts include:
1) The US and Europe face real economic challenges but the US has the flexibility and innovation to adapt and compete globally.
2) While short term uncertainty exists, US and European multinational companies offer attractive long term investment opportunities at low valuations.
3) Avoiding all risk by holding only safe assets may be the biggest risk for investors seeking growth over the long run.
IMF: Analysis of Policy Recommendations after the Global Financial CrisisUNDP Policy Centre
IMF policy recommendations are often criticised for being orthodox, restrictive and prociclycal in their policy recommendations for developing countries. The global financial and economic crisis has led the Fund to publish papers and organize conferences that show some rethinking on these positions. But, to which extent IMF recent willingness to rethinking has led to actual changes in its policy advice to the developing countries?
This new paper by the Brasilia-based International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG) analyses recent recommendations given by the IMF to 26 developing countries to assess whether this ‘change’ discourse has been translated into action in the field. Our analysis looked at the recommendations around exchange rate, inflation, fiscal consolidation, employment and social protection policies. It also covers the theoretical debate behind the policies recommended: the underlying arguments, the criticisms received and the IMF’s position.
1) The global economic imbalances continue to pose challenges as the underlying issues of spending and saving patterns between deficit and surplus countries remain unresolved.
2) While the solutions are understood in principle, there are disagreements between countries around exchange rate flexibility and the appropriate policy responses.
3) Any international monetary system would struggle to absorb large shocks and accommodate the rise of large emerging economies like China, so underlying sources of imbalances must be addressed.
This document introduces the concept of financialization and its implications. It defines financialization as the increasing role of financial motives, markets, actors and institutions in domestic and international economies. Some key points:
1) Since the 1970s/1980s, structural shifts have led to increases in financial transactions, real interest rates, and the profitability and shares of national income going to financial firms and asset holders in countries like the US and France.
2) These trends reflect the phenomenon of financialization in world economies. Financialization has implications for economic stability, growth, income distribution, and political/economic policy.
3) While financialization has detrimental effects, the financial sector benefits from economic crises that hurt many
Please type the answers to FOUR of the following five questions. P.docxmattjtoni51554
Please type the answers to FOUR of the following five questions. Please limit your answers to no more than two pages, double-spaced, per question. A well presented answer will draw upon information presented in class and/or the required reading, but there is no need for further research. You have time to edit and proof-read your work. Writing counts!
1. Explain the relationship between the current account of the balance of payments and the international investment position of a nation. Since the late 1980s, the U.S. has become the world's largest debtor nation. Explain why some observers feel that this net negative balance of international indebtedness is a problem and why others do not.
2. On several occasions (the Plaza Accord, the Louvre Accord, etc.), the major industrialized countries agreed to take concerted actions to affect the value of the U.S. dollar. In these instances, the countries used the foreign exchange markets to raise or lower the value of the dollar. Explain these actions and also other policies that could be taken by these governments instead to affect the value of the dollar. Why did both the United States and its trading partners first want the dollar to depreciate and then appreciate?
3. With the demise of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system, the major functions of the International Monetary Fund have been to both serve as a lender of last resort and also to help countries coordinate macroeconomic policies. Explain why macroeconomic policy coordination is important for the stability of exchange rates.
4. Discuss how international factor movements can be seen as a substitute for international trade. How might they be seen as complements? How might trade barriers (or the lack of trade barriers) be related to this question?
5. Discuss some of the similarities and some of the differences between NAFTA and the European Union. What implications do you think the differences will have for the ultimate impacts of the two agreements?
.
The document discusses the challenges facing the Doha Round of global trade negotiations. It identifies 3 main problems undermining the negotiations' success: 1) massive current account imbalances, especially between the US and China; 2) currency misalignments; and 3) lack of political will in key countries. It argues major currency realignments and policy changes are needed to overcome protectionist pressures and resolve economic issues fueling opposition to trade liberalization. Bold, coordinated actions are necessary to put the Doha Round back on track and prevent a reversal to widespread protectionism.
De ocampo presentation 3rd singapore global dialogue sep 12 (2)Manu Bhaskaran
Roberto De Ocampo was invited to speak at the 3rd Singapore Global Dialogue on whether the world economy is governable. He argues that the world economy is far more complex now than during the Bretton Woods system. Several financial crises starting in the 1990s demonstrated the interconnectedness of economies and impacted regions and the world. The rise of China and shift of economic power away from the US and Europe has further complicated governance. While the G20 aims to facilitate cooperation, it faces legitimacy issues due to its limited membership. True global governance will require continued evolution of international institutions and cooperation between powerful state actors like the US, EU, and China.
This document summarizes the key discussions and conclusions from a conference on challenges and opportunities for Japan in the global economy. The conference highlighted that the global financial crisis requires an international response due to economic interconnectivity. Japan is well positioned to take advantage of opportunities from global turmoil due to its large cash reserves. However, Japan needs to engage more globally and demonstrate leadership on issues like climate change. Its relationship with China is also critical and both countries need to resolve bilateral issues to create a true partnership.
This document summarizes the key discussions and conclusions from a conference on challenges and opportunities for Japan in the global economy. The conference highlighted that the global financial crisis requires an international response due to economic interconnectivity. Japan is well positioned to take advantage of opportunities from global turmoil due to its large cash reserves. However, Japan needs to engage more globally and demonstrate leadership on issues like climate change. Its relationship with China is also critical and both countries need to resolve bilateral issues to create a true partnership.
This document summarizes the key discussions and conclusions from a conference on challenges and opportunities for Japan in the global economy. The conference highlighted that the global financial crisis requires an international response due to economic interconnectivity. Japan is well positioned to take advantage of opportunities from global turmoil due to its large cash reserves. However, Japan needs to engage more globally and demonstrate leadership on issues like climate change. Its relationship with China is also critical and both countries need to resolve bilateral issues to create a true partnership.
This document discusses challenges with implementing discretionary fiscal policy and the need for fiscal rules in the European Union. It outlines three main criticisms of countercyclical fiscal policy: the existence of lags between policy actions and economic effects, the possibility of Ricardian equivalence reducing the impact of fiscal policy, and the difficulty of finding examples where countercyclical fiscal policy led to fast economic recoveries. The document then analyzes factors that hamper effective countercyclical policy, such as uncertainty around economic forecasts and unstable relationships between income and revenues/spending. It argues the pre-Maastricht experience in EU countries showed a need for fiscal rules to prevent debt crises, and that diverging initial positions called for
Chapter 6 WorksheetECN211Activity 1– Introduction to the Macro.docxchristinemaritza
Chapter 6 Worksheet
ECN211
Activity 1– Introduction to the Macroeconomic Perspective
1. What is the focus of Macroeconomics? Give some examples of Macroeconomic-focused questions.
2. What are the three Macroeconomic goals?
3. Discuss the framework of Macroeconomics- what model does it use to explain changes in GDP, unemployment, and the price level?
4. Compare and contrast the two main policy tools that Macroeconomists and policymakers can use to help achieve the macroeconomic goals.
Activity 2– Measuring the Size of the Economy: Gross Domestic Product
5. Define Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
6. From the demand-side of GDP, state the four GDP components, the value of these components for the US in 2014, and the percentage that it makes up of total GDP. Give an example of a good from each category.
7. From the supply-side of GDP, state the five GDP components, the value of these components for the US in 2014, and the percentage that it makes up of total GDP. Give an example from each category.
8. What is the problem of double counting when calculating GDP, and what does it imply about counting intermediate goods vs. final goods and services?
9. What else is not counted in GDP calculations?
10. Contrast Gross National Product (GNP) from GDP.
11. Contrast Net National Product (NNP) from GNP.
12. What is National Income?
Activity 3– Measuring the Size of the Economy: Gross Domestic Product
13. What is the difference between nominal value and real value?
14. State the formula for Real GDP. The tiny country of Estrellian has a GDP of $3 billion. If the price index is 120, what is its real GDP? What does this figure mean in words?
15. When tracking GDP overtime, why is often better to look at real GDP instead of nominal GDP?
16. Contrast a recession from a depression.
17. Graph a theoretical business cycle over time. Label the peaks and the troughs.
Activity 4– Comparing GDP among Countries
18. Why is it necessary to first convert currencies when comparing two different country’s GDPs?
19. Assume that the exchange rate between the Mexican peso and the US dollar is 17 pesos = $1. Also assume that the current Mexican GDP is 21.437 trillion pesos. How big is the Mexican economy in US dollars? If the US GDP is $17 trillion, how much smaller (in percentage) is the Mexican economy relative to the US economy?
20. Canada’s GDP (in US dollars) is $1,826.8 billion and has a population size of 35.1 million people. The US GDP is $16,768.1 billion and has a population of 316.3 million people. Which country has a bigger GDP per capita? Show your work.
Activity 5– How Well GDP Measures the Well-Being of Society
21. A country’s GDP per capita is only a rough measure of that country’s standard of living or well-being. Explain how GDP falls short in measuring well-being by discussing the problems of
a. Leisure time -
b. Production not exchanged in markets-
c. The level of inequality in so ...
1) The IMF faces many challenges as global economic and political power shifts, including rising populism, protectionism, and great power rivalry. It must adapt to remain relevant.
2) Key changes needed are rebalancing voting shares to reflect economic weights, increasing financial resources, and making the top leadership truly global and merit-based.
3) Ultimately, the IMF relies on countries cooperating in a rules-based global system. If that cooperation breaks down, the IMF's role will be difficult to maintain.
This document discusses lessons from the global financial crisis for monetary and financial policy. It makes three key points:
1) Monetary policy can still be expansionary even when interest rates hit zero, through quantitative easing and credit easing measures.
2) The crisis showed the critical importance of a strong, robust financial system for withstanding economic downturns. Countries without financial crises fared better.
3) There is a need for macroprudential supervision that looks at systemic risks across the entire financial system, but tools for this are still limited, relying largely on existing microprudential tools adapted for macro purposes. Coordination across supervisory agencies is also important.
1) The US recovery in the 1930s was rapid until 1937, when unemployment surged again due to a switch to contractionary fiscal and monetary policy that prolonged the Depression.
2) In 1937, fiscal stimulus from veterans bonuses and Social Security taxes disappeared, reducing the deficit by 2.5% of GDP. Additionally, the Federal Reserve doubled bank reserve requirements, unintentionally causing banks to reduce lending and precipitating recession.
3) The author argues that policymakers today must learn from 1937 and resist prematurely withdrawing stimulus until the economy reaches full employment to avoid derailing the recovery.
- In the late 1980s, Japan's economy grew rapidly but then experienced a "lost decade" of stagnation in the 1990s due to an asset bubble fueled by easy credit policies.
- The Bank of Japan attempted to stimulate the economy through low interest rates, but this helped create a real estate and stock market bubble that burst in the early 1990s.
- The bursting of the bubble devastated bank balance sheets through non-performing loans and led households and firms to focus on reducing debt rather than spending, exacerbating the economic downturn.
Monetary policy is an important public policy, but it is not the only one to stabilize our economy and reduce its business cycles. The leading central bank, the Federal Reserve of the U.S., has introduced, after the 2008 global financial crisis, new instruments and unusual facilities to implement its new innovative monetary policy. The financial world and mostly the social scientists watch as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decides on a target interest rate in the federal funds market for the next period. The framework that the FOMC uses to implement monetary policy has changed over the last twelve years and continues to evolve today. Here, we try to evaluate the new instruments and their “effectiveness”. Before the 2008 financial crisis, policymakers used one set of traditional instruments (tools) to achieve the target rate. However, several policy interventions, introduced soon after the crisis, drastically altered the landscape of the federal funds market and the traditional economic theory. This new and uncertain environment, with enormous reserves and even interest on reserves, necessitated a new set of instruments by the Fed for its monetary policy implementation. Lately, after seven years of zero interest rate, the FOMC began in December 2015 to increase the target rate and then, went back again to a lower one, but many questions arise. How did they evaluate the effectiveness of these new instruments? Is the current federal funds rate the appropriate one for our economic wellbeing? How efficient was so far this ZIR monetary policy after the latest global financial crisis? Why the Fed put all these burdens of its ‘innovated” new monetary policy to the poor taxpayers (bail out) and to the risk-averse depositors (bail in)? Is it possible for the Fed’s policy to prevent the future financial crises? The federal funds rate was very low and affected negatively the financial markets (bubbles were growing), the real rates of interest (it is negative for twelve years), and the deposit rates (they are closed to zero for twelve years). The redistribution of wealth of depositors and taxpayers continues, which means the true economic welfare is falling and a new global recession was in preparation, if the current unfair easy money policy will persist, ignoring the necessity of a prevention of financial crises. Then, it came as an unexpected plague the coronavirus pandemic, following with a new but, the worse in economic history global crisis (chaos).
Hank Moore is a corporate strategist who has advised over 5,000 client organizations, including Fortune 500 companies. He advises on growth strategies, strategic planning, leadership development, and how to navigate business cycles and economic recessions. The document reviews past US recessions since the 1960s and their differing causes, such as the 1973 oil crisis and stock market crash, the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and 1990s, and the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s. While each recession has unique characteristics, the overall message is that recessions are a normal part of the economic cycle and the stock market and economy will eventually recover from the current downturn.
The document summarizes the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath. It discusses how excess leverage and easy credit led to the crisis. It then describes the massive fiscal and monetary responses by governments to counter the recession. Finally, it outlines a new investment strategy focused on bonds, hedging risks, and adapting to long-term volatility in a more regulated post-crisis economic environment.
The document discusses applying concepts of situational awareness (SA) to investing in alternative investments such as hedge funds. SA involves perceiving elements in one's environment, comprehending their meaning, and projecting their future status. The document outlines applying SA's three levels - acquiring data, evaluating the data to create an understanding, and projecting future states - to gain knowledge about macroeconomic conditions, the alternative investment industry, and individual managers. This framework can help differentiate investment choices and ensure accurate mental models are used for decision making.
Ss china the us & currencies harvard kennedy school presentationMarcus Vannini
- The document discusses currency issues between China, the US, and the RMB. It argues that China should allow gradual appreciation of the RMB for several reasons, including avoiding overheating of the Chinese economy and making exchange rate policy an effective tool for balancing internal and external economic conditions.
- It also discusses criticisms of US twin deficits and theories around sustainable current account deficits. The global monetary system is shifting from a dollar-based system to one with multiple international reserve currencies.
The US dollar is experiencing its strongest rally since 1984 against other major currencies as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates while other central banks continue monetary easing. There is little international coordination to respond to the dollar's rise, unlike in 1985 when the Plaza Accord was signed by major economies to weaken the dollar. The G20 meeting in Turkey ended without agreement on responding to global economic issues like China's slowing economy. Experts say the loss of regular communication between economic officials has reduced coordination capabilities. While the G7 may still intervene in currency markets, the Fed's isolation could increase pressure to delay interest rate hikes to protect the US economy from the dollar's strength.
The document provides commentary from OceanForest Investment Partners on the third quarter of 2011. Key points from interviews with Warren Buffett and a panel of experts include:
1) The US and Europe face real economic challenges but the US has the flexibility and innovation to adapt and compete globally.
2) While short term uncertainty exists, US and European multinational companies offer attractive long term investment opportunities at low valuations.
3) Avoiding all risk by holding only safe assets may be the biggest risk for investors seeking growth over the long run.
IMF: Analysis of Policy Recommendations after the Global Financial CrisisUNDP Policy Centre
IMF policy recommendations are often criticised for being orthodox, restrictive and prociclycal in their policy recommendations for developing countries. The global financial and economic crisis has led the Fund to publish papers and organize conferences that show some rethinking on these positions. But, to which extent IMF recent willingness to rethinking has led to actual changes in its policy advice to the developing countries?
This new paper by the Brasilia-based International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG) analyses recent recommendations given by the IMF to 26 developing countries to assess whether this ‘change’ discourse has been translated into action in the field. Our analysis looked at the recommendations around exchange rate, inflation, fiscal consolidation, employment and social protection policies. It also covers the theoretical debate behind the policies recommended: the underlying arguments, the criticisms received and the IMF’s position.
1) The global economic imbalances continue to pose challenges as the underlying issues of spending and saving patterns between deficit and surplus countries remain unresolved.
2) While the solutions are understood in principle, there are disagreements between countries around exchange rate flexibility and the appropriate policy responses.
3) Any international monetary system would struggle to absorb large shocks and accommodate the rise of large emerging economies like China, so underlying sources of imbalances must be addressed.
This document introduces the concept of financialization and its implications. It defines financialization as the increasing role of financial motives, markets, actors and institutions in domestic and international economies. Some key points:
1) Since the 1970s/1980s, structural shifts have led to increases in financial transactions, real interest rates, and the profitability and shares of national income going to financial firms and asset holders in countries like the US and France.
2) These trends reflect the phenomenon of financialization in world economies. Financialization has implications for economic stability, growth, income distribution, and political/economic policy.
3) While financialization has detrimental effects, the financial sector benefits from economic crises that hurt many
Please type the answers to FOUR of the following five questions. P.docxmattjtoni51554
Please type the answers to FOUR of the following five questions. Please limit your answers to no more than two pages, double-spaced, per question. A well presented answer will draw upon information presented in class and/or the required reading, but there is no need for further research. You have time to edit and proof-read your work. Writing counts!
1. Explain the relationship between the current account of the balance of payments and the international investment position of a nation. Since the late 1980s, the U.S. has become the world's largest debtor nation. Explain why some observers feel that this net negative balance of international indebtedness is a problem and why others do not.
2. On several occasions (the Plaza Accord, the Louvre Accord, etc.), the major industrialized countries agreed to take concerted actions to affect the value of the U.S. dollar. In these instances, the countries used the foreign exchange markets to raise or lower the value of the dollar. Explain these actions and also other policies that could be taken by these governments instead to affect the value of the dollar. Why did both the United States and its trading partners first want the dollar to depreciate and then appreciate?
3. With the demise of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system, the major functions of the International Monetary Fund have been to both serve as a lender of last resort and also to help countries coordinate macroeconomic policies. Explain why macroeconomic policy coordination is important for the stability of exchange rates.
4. Discuss how international factor movements can be seen as a substitute for international trade. How might they be seen as complements? How might trade barriers (or the lack of trade barriers) be related to this question?
5. Discuss some of the similarities and some of the differences between NAFTA and the European Union. What implications do you think the differences will have for the ultimate impacts of the two agreements?
.
The document discusses the challenges facing the Doha Round of global trade negotiations. It identifies 3 main problems undermining the negotiations' success: 1) massive current account imbalances, especially between the US and China; 2) currency misalignments; and 3) lack of political will in key countries. It argues major currency realignments and policy changes are needed to overcome protectionist pressures and resolve economic issues fueling opposition to trade liberalization. Bold, coordinated actions are necessary to put the Doha Round back on track and prevent a reversal to widespread protectionism.
De ocampo presentation 3rd singapore global dialogue sep 12 (2)Manu Bhaskaran
Roberto De Ocampo was invited to speak at the 3rd Singapore Global Dialogue on whether the world economy is governable. He argues that the world economy is far more complex now than during the Bretton Woods system. Several financial crises starting in the 1990s demonstrated the interconnectedness of economies and impacted regions and the world. The rise of China and shift of economic power away from the US and Europe has further complicated governance. While the G20 aims to facilitate cooperation, it faces legitimacy issues due to its limited membership. True global governance will require continued evolution of international institutions and cooperation between powerful state actors like the US, EU, and China.
This document summarizes the key discussions and conclusions from a conference on challenges and opportunities for Japan in the global economy. The conference highlighted that the global financial crisis requires an international response due to economic interconnectivity. Japan is well positioned to take advantage of opportunities from global turmoil due to its large cash reserves. However, Japan needs to engage more globally and demonstrate leadership on issues like climate change. Its relationship with China is also critical and both countries need to resolve bilateral issues to create a true partnership.
This document summarizes the key discussions and conclusions from a conference on challenges and opportunities for Japan in the global economy. The conference highlighted that the global financial crisis requires an international response due to economic interconnectivity. Japan is well positioned to take advantage of opportunities from global turmoil due to its large cash reserves. However, Japan needs to engage more globally and demonstrate leadership on issues like climate change. Its relationship with China is also critical and both countries need to resolve bilateral issues to create a true partnership.
This document summarizes the key discussions and conclusions from a conference on challenges and opportunities for Japan in the global economy. The conference highlighted that the global financial crisis requires an international response due to economic interconnectivity. Japan is well positioned to take advantage of opportunities from global turmoil due to its large cash reserves. However, Japan needs to engage more globally and demonstrate leadership on issues like climate change. Its relationship with China is also critical and both countries need to resolve bilateral issues to create a true partnership.
This document discusses challenges with implementing discretionary fiscal policy and the need for fiscal rules in the European Union. It outlines three main criticisms of countercyclical fiscal policy: the existence of lags between policy actions and economic effects, the possibility of Ricardian equivalence reducing the impact of fiscal policy, and the difficulty of finding examples where countercyclical fiscal policy led to fast economic recoveries. The document then analyzes factors that hamper effective countercyclical policy, such as uncertainty around economic forecasts and unstable relationships between income and revenues/spending. It argues the pre-Maastricht experience in EU countries showed a need for fiscal rules to prevent debt crises, and that diverging initial positions called for
Chapter 6 WorksheetECN211Activity 1– Introduction to the Macro.docxchristinemaritza
Chapter 6 Worksheet
ECN211
Activity 1– Introduction to the Macroeconomic Perspective
1. What is the focus of Macroeconomics? Give some examples of Macroeconomic-focused questions.
2. What are the three Macroeconomic goals?
3. Discuss the framework of Macroeconomics- what model does it use to explain changes in GDP, unemployment, and the price level?
4. Compare and contrast the two main policy tools that Macroeconomists and policymakers can use to help achieve the macroeconomic goals.
Activity 2– Measuring the Size of the Economy: Gross Domestic Product
5. Define Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
6. From the demand-side of GDP, state the four GDP components, the value of these components for the US in 2014, and the percentage that it makes up of total GDP. Give an example of a good from each category.
7. From the supply-side of GDP, state the five GDP components, the value of these components for the US in 2014, and the percentage that it makes up of total GDP. Give an example from each category.
8. What is the problem of double counting when calculating GDP, and what does it imply about counting intermediate goods vs. final goods and services?
9. What else is not counted in GDP calculations?
10. Contrast Gross National Product (GNP) from GDP.
11. Contrast Net National Product (NNP) from GNP.
12. What is National Income?
Activity 3– Measuring the Size of the Economy: Gross Domestic Product
13. What is the difference between nominal value and real value?
14. State the formula for Real GDP. The tiny country of Estrellian has a GDP of $3 billion. If the price index is 120, what is its real GDP? What does this figure mean in words?
15. When tracking GDP overtime, why is often better to look at real GDP instead of nominal GDP?
16. Contrast a recession from a depression.
17. Graph a theoretical business cycle over time. Label the peaks and the troughs.
Activity 4– Comparing GDP among Countries
18. Why is it necessary to first convert currencies when comparing two different country’s GDPs?
19. Assume that the exchange rate between the Mexican peso and the US dollar is 17 pesos = $1. Also assume that the current Mexican GDP is 21.437 trillion pesos. How big is the Mexican economy in US dollars? If the US GDP is $17 trillion, how much smaller (in percentage) is the Mexican economy relative to the US economy?
20. Canada’s GDP (in US dollars) is $1,826.8 billion and has a population size of 35.1 million people. The US GDP is $16,768.1 billion and has a population of 316.3 million people. Which country has a bigger GDP per capita? Show your work.
Activity 5– How Well GDP Measures the Well-Being of Society
21. A country’s GDP per capita is only a rough measure of that country’s standard of living or well-being. Explain how GDP falls short in measuring well-being by discussing the problems of
a. Leisure time -
b. Production not exchanged in markets-
c. The level of inequality in so ...
1) The IMF faces many challenges as global economic and political power shifts, including rising populism, protectionism, and great power rivalry. It must adapt to remain relevant.
2) Key changes needed are rebalancing voting shares to reflect economic weights, increasing financial resources, and making the top leadership truly global and merit-based.
3) Ultimately, the IMF relies on countries cooperating in a rules-based global system. If that cooperation breaks down, the IMF's role will be difficult to maintain.
3. From Capital Controls To Dollarization American Hegemony And The US DollarDaniel Wachtel
This document discusses dollarization in Latin America and its implications. It makes two key points:
1) Dollarization does not necessarily lead to smooth balance of payments adjustment in emerging markets. Instability and economic crises could increase with the loss of independent monetary policy.
2) The collapse of Bretton Woods increased US economic hegemony through a more widespread use of the US dollar internationally. Countries in Latin America extensively use dollars beyond international transactions.
13. From Capital Controls To Dollarization American Hegemony And The US DollarKayla Jones
This document discusses dollarization and the role of the US dollar in international markets. It makes two key points:
1) Dollarization does not necessarily lead to smooth balance of payments adjustment in peripheral economies. Instability and economic contraction are possible outcomes as these countries lose the ability to use currency devaluation to correct deficits.
2) The collapse of Bretton Woods increased US economic hegemony and the global role of the US dollar. This has been actively pursued by the US to maintain advantages like persistent trade deficits. Dollarization became more widespread after Bretton Woods.
Emerging powers in global covernance eu parnership with the un system in deve...Dr Lendy Spires
The document summarizes the development of the EU-UN partnership in development and humanitarian cooperation. It discusses how their partnership was described as "natural" due to shared values, objectives, and responsibilities regarding issues like the Millennium Development Goals. The partnership covers a wide range of issues from governance to emergency relief. However, the document notes that the EU's development policies and relationship with the UN developed strategically over time, rather than the EU simply accepting existing frameworks.
1) The document discusses the need for improved policy coordination in several areas including the WTO Doha Round negotiations, climate change measures, and international development aid.
2) In the WTO, a lack of leadership from the US and tensions over agricultural subsidies have stalled negotiations, but a proposal for China and the US to make concessions could provide an opportunity.
3) There is a risk of emerging climate protectionism as countries consider border carbon taxes, which developing countries view as unfair, so monitoring tools are needed.
4) The fragmented international development aid system needs restructuring to be more effective and predictable, and agreements are needed with new donors like China on transparent approaches.
The document discusses steps the U.S., China, and Japan should take before the next G20 meeting to address the global financial crisis. It proposes:
1) Establishing an emergency currency peg between the dollar, RMB, and yen to stop competitive currency devaluations.
2) Creating a group of allied global central banks including the Fed, PBOC, and BOJ to provide currency swaps and act as a global lender of last resort.
3) Having global sovereign funds recapitalize key global corporations through partial nationalization to restore market confidence.
The document argues this U.S.-China-Japan agreement would provide a foundation for the larger G20 nations
The Rise and Fall of the Washington Consensus as aParadigm.docxkathleen23456789
The Rise and Fall of the Washington Consensus as a
Paradigm for Developing Countries
CHARLES GORE *
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva, Switzerland
Summary. Ð The introduction of the Washington Consensus involved not simply a swing from
state-led to market-oriented policies, but also a shift in the ways in which development problems
were framed and in the types of explanation through which policies were justi®ed. Key changes
were the partial globalization of development policy analysis, and a shift from historicism to
ahistorical performance assessment. The main challenge to this approach is a latent Southern
Consensus, which is apparent in the convergence between East Asian developmentalism and Latin
American neostructuralism. The demise of the Washington Consensus is inevitable because its
methodology and ideology are in contradiction. Ó 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Key words Ð development theory, development policies, World Bank/IMF policies
1. INTRODUCTION
Developing countries is an international
practice. The essence of this practice is the
mobilization and allocation of resources, and
the design of institutions, to transform national
economies and societies, in an orderly way,
from a state and status of being less developed
to one of being more developed. The agencies
engaged in this practice include national
governments of less-developed countries, which
have adopted ``development'' as a purpose to
which State power is put, and governments of
richer countries, which disburse o�cial devel-
opment aid to support and in¯uence this
process; a variety of non-governmental orga-
nizations concerned to animate and channel
popular concerns; and international intergov-
ernmental organizations, such as the organs of
the United Nations and the World Bank, many
of which have been expressly set up to resolve
various development problems. Often it is the
last group who have acted as the avant-garde of
development practice. It is because of their
activities, as well as the widespread tendency of
governments to copy successful practice else-
where, that it is appropriate to describe devel-
oping countries as an international practice.
But it is by no means global in scope. Indeed
the practice of developing countries is only
done in a particular set of countriesÐthose
which in the 1950s and 1960s were generally
called ``underdeveloped'' or ``less developed''
countries, but which now generally identify
themselves, and are identi®ed by others, as
``developing countries.''
This paper discusses trends in the body of
knowledge which guides and justi®es the prac-
tice of development. It examines, in particular,
the ideas propagated by international develop-
ment agencies, and focuses on the shift in
thinking which occurred in the 1980s with the
introduction and widespread adoption of an
approach to the practice of developing coun-
tries known as the ``Washington Consensus.''
In broad terms, this approach reco.
This document provides an overview of international finance from a legal and regulatory perspective. It discusses four main topics: 1) what constitutes international finance, 2) the degree of integration of national financial markets, 3) the sources of international financial law and regulation including both national governments and multilateral institutions, and 4) the costs and benefits of increasing globalization of international finance. The document concludes that harmonized rules created and supervised by supranational authorities will help minimize financial instability and maximize efficiency.
MA Thesis Economic Conditions in Peace AccordsThomas Anthony
This document is a thesis submitted by Thomas Anthony to Utrecht University in partial fulfillment of a Master's degree in Conflict Studies and Human Rights. The thesis examines the role of economic clauses in peace accords and whether their inclusion can help transition a post-conflict society from a war economy to a peace economy.
Chapter 1 introduces the topic by noting the increased attention given to economic reconstruction in post-conflict settings. It presents data showing the difficulty post-conflict countries have achieving pre-war levels of GDP and GDP per capita. The chapter argues that including specific economic conditions in peace accords could help provide stability and encourage investment to expedite economic recovery. However, most peace accords contain few economic provisions.
A small airline recently sold to a private equity group for $145 m.docxannetnash8266
A small airline recently sold to a private equity group for $145 million. The airline has earned profits of $9 million last year. The new managers believe they can grow profits at 5% per year. The private equity group borrows money from wealthy individuals to invest in acquisitions. Because of the significant risk involved, lenders are promised a 12% return on their loans to the equity group. Is the purchase price of the new airline reasonable? Explain
ISSN 0143-6597 print/ISSN 1360-2241 online/02/040607-1 4 q 2002 Third World Quarterly
DOI: 10.1080 /014365902200000529 2 607
Third World Quarterly, Vol 23, No 4, pp 607–620, 2002
Eager to defend the feasibilit y, indeed desirability, of continued mobility of cross-
border financial flows, especially after the advent of the Asian crisis (1997–98),
the G-7 countries established a series of institutions and networks, encompassin g
both state and non-state actors, in the hope of strengthening the internationa l
financial system. This strategy has been referred to as the New Internationa l
Financial Architecture (NIFA). While there are many dimensions to the NIFA, we
can identify at least three important features: the Group of Twenty (G-20), the
Financial Stability Forum (FSF), and 11 standards and codes which are collec-
tively known as the Reports on Observances of Standards and Codes (ROSCs).
Briefly, the G-20 brings together, for the first time, finance ministers and central
bank governors not only of the G-7 and the European Union, but also their
counterparts of ‘systematically important’ emerging market economies. The FSF,
on the other hand, seeks to provide regular scheduled meetings involvi ng
important national authorities from G-7 countries in order to enhance discussion s
On the contradictions of the New
International Financial Architecture:
another procrustean bed for
emerging markets?
SUSANNE SOEDERBERG
ABSTRACT The New International Financial Architecture (NIFA) was created by
powerful G-7 countries in response to the growing volatility in the developing
world. Some key components of the NIFA include: the G-20, the Financial Stabilit y
Forum and the Reports on Observance of Standards and Codes, the latte r
involving areas such as corporate governanc e. The aim of this article is to
address some important yet largely neglected questions. Why the new building ?
Who benefits from this construct ion? Unlike most accounts of the NIFA, the
following analysis does not remain focused on its institutio nal terrain; but
instead draws linkages between these structures and the paradoxes inherent in
global capitalism. One such contradiction is the constant promotion of financia l
liberalisation in emerging markets by US-led international financial institution s
(IFIs), on the one hand, and the frequency of financial crises in the developing
world, on the other. The article suggests that the NIFA is an attempt to strengthe n
(stabilise and legitimate) the scaffolding of the existing imper.
1) Many OECD countries face large output gaps, severe fiscal imbalances with high debt levels, and rising current account imbalances.
2) Faster fiscal consolidation could reduce short-term growth but lead to higher medium-term growth through lower interest rates and cost of capital.
3) Additional structural reforms and exchange rate adjustments are also needed along with fiscal consolidation to achieve balanced long-term growth across countries.
This document discusses the G20's adoption of a development agenda at their 2010 Toronto Summit for two main reasons. First, the G20 wanted to maintain its relevance after successfully addressing the global financial crisis by shifting its focus to long-term development issues. Second, the G20's legitimacy and authority have been increasingly challenged by excluded nation-states, so promoting development can help address these concerns. The document introduces a collection of papers that were presented at a conference on how the G20 can best promote pro-poor growth and sustainability through its new development agenda.
This document discusses the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis and G20 responses on sub-Saharan Africa. It finds that:
1) The crisis initially reduced demand, capital flows, and trade from developed nations, slowing growth in sub-Saharan Africa.
2) Stimulus packages in developed countries had unintended protectionist effects that further hurt African exports and trade.
3) However, African nations avoided major policy reversals, and growth has rebounded somewhat due to recovery in China and emerging markets.
4) The crisis accelerated Africa's economic ties shifting from the West to partners like China, though trade and aid ties to Europe and North America remain important.
Global imbalances were much smaller during the Bretton Woods era compared to the post-Bretton Woods period, when US external and internal imbalances deteriorated seriously. The Bretton Woods system only indirectly constrained global imbalances through pegged exchange rates and capital controls. There was no lasting agreement on symmetric adjustment responsibilities between surplus and deficit countries or on the deflationary bias of reserve centers like the US. Unilateralism undermined IMF surveillance, and both the US and major surplus countries refused special responsibilities, contributing to failures that still impact negotiations over global imbalances today.
1) The global recovery since 2009 has been driven by stimulus but underlying structural issues remain, including weak banks and the need for fiscal austerity. Global imbalances are rising again and current account deficits/surpluses pose risks to financial stability.
2) While East Asia recovered strongly from the crisis and is recalibrating growth models, the region remains highly dependent on exports and external demand. A shift to domestic/intra-regional growth will be difficult and gradual.
3) Persistent imbalances increase risks of stagnation if surplus countries like China and Germany do not boost domestic demand. Global coordination of economic policies faces challenges in overcoming national interests and distributing adjustment costs.
The document discusses tools for global governance used by the G20, including policy coordination and peer review. It summarizes the goals and outcomes of four G20 summits between 2008-2010. Peer review involves countries systematically examining each other's policies to help improve policymaking and adopt best practices. For the G20 framework to be effective, commitments must be reviewed, and international organizations like the IMF and OECD can help ensure credible policy coordination and peer review.
The document discusses global economic imbalances and the need for coordinated policy responses. It notes that while current account imbalances between countries like China, Japan, Germany and the US/UK have existed since the late 1990s, financial crises are more directly related to issues like financial deregulation. While market forces could help rebalance economies, coordinated policy actions are needed to avoid painful adjustments through deflation and depression. The document advocates for policies like increasing consumption in surplus countries through fiscal stimulus and financial development, encouraging private savings in deficit nations through tax incentives, and promoting export-led growth through coordinated exchange rate policies and supply-side reforms. It also calls for establishing a new international financial system and global governance framework to facilitate coordinated responses
The document analyzes the causes and consequences of global imbalances from the perspective of developing Asia. It finds that developing Asia's large and persistent current account surpluses since the Asian financial crisis have contributed significantly to global imbalances. While developing Asia benefited from export-led growth for decades, running sustained surpluses may not maximize long-term growth and welfare and could be a mixed blessing. The global financial crisis has added urgency for developing Asia to rebalance growth toward domestic demand but was not the sole cause, as surpluses were already exerting costs on the region.
The document discusses the rise of BRICs' (Brazil, Russia, India, China) international financial power and its implications. It finds that while BRICs' financial openness and external investments have increased in recent years, their international financial influence remains relatively weak compared to their economic size due to lagging domestic financial development. The moderately enhanced financial power of BRICs can help provide low-cost capital and promote stability but BRICs have little influence over international financial governance. For BRICs to strengthen their global financial role, they need to accelerate domestic financial reforms and increase cooperation among themselves and with other economies.
China faces macroeconomic challenges including surplus labor and capital, price distortions, and volatility in property and stock markets. There are around 481 million unskilled rural and migrant workers in China who face unemployment if they cannot find jobs in cities. China also has surplus capital due to price controls and state ownership in many sectors that lead to overinvestment. China's inflation and currency appreciation act as substitutes to gradually increase its domestic price levels relative to other nations over the long run. An "inflation-first, appreciation-second" strategy would help China avoid risks of deflation or excessive inflation as its economy develops.
The simplified electron and muon model, Oscillating Spacetime: The Foundation...RitikBhardwaj56
Discover the Simplified Electron and Muon Model: A New Wave-Based Approach to Understanding Particles delves into a groundbreaking theory that presents electrons and muons as rotating soliton waves within oscillating spacetime. Geared towards students, researchers, and science buffs, this book breaks down complex ideas into simple explanations. It covers topics such as electron waves, temporal dynamics, and the implications of this model on particle physics. With clear illustrations and easy-to-follow explanations, readers will gain a new outlook on the universe's fundamental nature.
How to Add Chatter in the odoo 17 ERP ModuleCeline George
In Odoo, the chatter is like a chat tool that helps you work together on records. You can leave notes and track things, making it easier to talk with your team and partners. Inside chatter, all communication history, activity, and changes will be displayed.
A review of the growth of the Israel Genealogy Research Association Database Collection for the last 12 months. Our collection is now passed the 3 million mark and still growing. See which archives have contributed the most. See the different types of records we have, and which years have had records added. You can also see what we have for the future.
Executive Directors Chat Leveraging AI for Diversity, Equity, and InclusionTechSoup
Let’s explore the intersection of technology and equity in the final session of our DEI series. Discover how AI tools, like ChatGPT, can be used to support and enhance your nonprofit's DEI initiatives. Participants will gain insights into practical AI applications and get tips for leveraging technology to advance their DEI goals.
हिंदी वर्णमाला पीपीटी, hindi alphabet PPT presentation, hindi varnamala PPT, Hindi Varnamala pdf, हिंदी स्वर, हिंदी व्यंजन, sikhiye hindi varnmala, dr. mulla adam ali, hindi language and literature, hindi alphabet with drawing, hindi alphabet pdf, hindi varnamala for childrens, hindi language, hindi varnamala practice for kids, https://www.drmullaadamali.com
Main Java[All of the Base Concepts}.docxadhitya5119
This is part 1 of my Java Learning Journey. This Contains Custom methods, classes, constructors, packages, multithreading , try- catch block, finally block and more.
Exploiting Artificial Intelligence for Empowering Researchers and Faculty, In...Dr. Vinod Kumar Kanvaria
Exploiting Artificial Intelligence for Empowering Researchers and Faculty,
International FDP on Fundamentals of Research in Social Sciences
at Integral University, Lucknow, 06.06.2024
By Dr. Vinod Kumar Kanvaria
ISO/IEC 27001, ISO/IEC 42001, and GDPR: Best Practices for Implementation and...PECB
Denis is a dynamic and results-driven Chief Information Officer (CIO) with a distinguished career spanning information systems analysis and technical project management. With a proven track record of spearheading the design and delivery of cutting-edge Information Management solutions, he has consistently elevated business operations, streamlined reporting functions, and maximized process efficiency.
Certified as an ISO/IEC 27001: Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) Lead Implementer, Data Protection Officer, and Cyber Risks Analyst, Denis brings a heightened focus on data security, privacy, and cyber resilience to every endeavor.
His expertise extends across a diverse spectrum of reporting, database, and web development applications, underpinned by an exceptional grasp of data storage and virtualization technologies. His proficiency in application testing, database administration, and data cleansing ensures seamless execution of complex projects.
What sets Denis apart is his comprehensive understanding of Business and Systems Analysis technologies, honed through involvement in all phases of the Software Development Lifecycle (SDLC). From meticulous requirements gathering to precise analysis, innovative design, rigorous development, thorough testing, and successful implementation, he has consistently delivered exceptional results.
Throughout his career, he has taken on multifaceted roles, from leading technical project management teams to owning solutions that drive operational excellence. His conscientious and proactive approach is unwavering, whether he is working independently or collaboratively within a team. His ability to connect with colleagues on a personal level underscores his commitment to fostering a harmonious and productive workplace environment.
Date: May 29, 2024
Tags: Information Security, ISO/IEC 27001, ISO/IEC 42001, Artificial Intelligence, GDPR
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Find out more about ISO training and certification services
Training: ISO/IEC 27001 Information Security Management System - EN | PECB
ISO/IEC 42001 Artificial Intelligence Management System - EN | PECB
General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) - Training Courses - EN | PECB
Webinars: https://pecb.com/webinars
Article: https://pecb.com/article
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For more information about PECB:
Website: https://pecb.com/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pecb/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PECBInternational/
Slideshare: http://www.slideshare.net/PECBCERTIFICATION
How to Make a Field Mandatory in Odoo 17Celine George
In Odoo, making a field required can be done through both Python code and XML views. When you set the required attribute to True in Python code, it makes the field required across all views where it's used. Conversely, when you set the required attribute in XML views, it makes the field required only in the context of that particular view.
Community pharmacy- Social and preventive pharmacy UNIT 5
Mark Thirwell (Beijing Sept 2010)
1. Global imbalances, international cooperation, and decoupling
Comments prepared for Chatham House / CIGI / Peking University Workshop
Beijing 25 September 2010
Mark Thirlwell
Lowy Institute for International Policy
The Plaza Accord
th
Since we are close to the 25 anniversary of the Plaza Accord, it does seem rather
appropriate to look to Plaza as a possible means of dealing with global imbalances.
There are, of course, other good reasons to refer to this example. The parallels
between USJapan economic relations in 1985 and USChina relations today are quite
1
stark. So, for example, a recent exercise conducted by the IMF looking at reversals
in current account surpluses ranks a series of episodes across ten characteristics
according to their similarity with conditions as prevailing today: the case of Japan in
the 1980s is judged to be one of the most similar, with a score of 7 out of ten
(although note that the case of Japan in the 1970s is judged to be even closer with a
2
score of 9 out of 10). Moreover, there have been explicit calls for a Plaza 2.0 to deal
3
with the current global configuration of current account surpluses and deficits.
Yet in many ways, the Plaza Agreement makes for a very qualified ‘success’ story.
First, it is certainly not clear that all of the participants, including in particular
Japan, would view the Plaza Accord positively today. There is a fairly heated
debate, for example, as to whether Japan’s great asset bubble boom and bust
can be blamed on the deal.
Second, it is also not clear whether the agreement actually worked, or even if
it was necessary. The US dollar had anyway started to weaken several months
before the meeting took place, and as that fall continued afterwards, officials
found themselves meeting again, in Paris in 1987, this time to try and stabilise
the greenback.
Third, the Plaza Agreement relied on a particular geopolitical and geo
economic configuration. Support of the central role of the US dollar during
the postwar period has relied on the contribution of partners’ countries to
1
See for example Haruhiko Kuroda, The "Nixon Shock" and the "Plaza Agreement": Lessons from two
seemingly failed cases of Japan's exchange rate policy. China & World Economy 12 (1) 2004.
2
Table 4.5 in International Monetary Fund (IMF), Chapter 4. Getting the balance right: Transitioning
out of sustained current account surpluses, in World Economic Outlook: Rebalancing growth.
Washington DC, International Monetary Fund, 2010.
3
See for example William R Cline, The case for a new Plaza Agreement. Policy Briefs in International
Economics PB054. Washington DC, Institute for International Economics, December, 2005. Also C.
Fred Bergsten, A call for an "Asian Plaza". The International Economy, Spring 2008.
1
2. defend its international position, beginning with the UK, and then followed by
first West Germany and later Japan, and eventually the rich country club of the
4
G7. To some extent, these countries could be seen as repaying the US in kind
for its provision of the public good of international security. It seems highly
unlikely that the much more heterogeneous membership of the G20 in general,
and China in particular, would take this role or this view today.
It’s possible that a better – albeit much more depressing – parallel to today’s
circumstances might be the 1933 World Economic Conference held in London. This
was a disaster, marked by a nearcomplete absence of agreement both on the sources
of the problems facing the world economy, and on who should be involved in the
5
adjustment process. On both counts, there are some worrying similarities with the
current policy debate.
International policy coordination
The case for international policy coordination rests on the idea that there will be
circumstances under which two or more countries will agree to a cooperative set of
policy changes where neither would wish to undertake the change on its own, but
where each expects the agreed package to leave it better off relative to the (Nash)
noncooperative equilibrium. The gains are supposed to come from the spillovers
6
(externalities) that one country’s policies have on the others’.
The case for a deal on global imbalances in general, and for a USChina deal in
particular, seems to fit in well with this approach. For the US, narrowing its external
deficit by squeezing domestic demand means slower growth. For China, shrinking its
external surplus by boosting domestic demand risks overheating and inflation. But if
US policies to slow domestic demand are accompanied by Chinese policies to boost
spending, then the overall adjustment package should look more attractive to both
7
countries.
That’s the theory. The practical process of policy coordination is generally thought to
involve three stages, each of which can involve serious obstacles to producing an
8
effective agreement:
Stage 1: each country has to decide what specific policy changes it would like
to ask the other to make and what it would be prepared to offer to get them.
This involves reaching a common understanding on what the appropriate
4
Robert Gilpin, The rise of American hegemony, in Two hegemonies: Britain 18461914 and the
United States 19412001, ed. Patrick Karl O'Brien and Armand Clesse. Aldershot, Ashgate Publishing
Ltd, 2002.
5
Prior to the London Summit of the G20 in April 2009, prominent financial commentators warned that
the participants needed to avoid a repeat of London 1933. See for example Financial Times, A survival
plan for global capitalism. Financial Times, 8 March 2009. Also Steve LeVine, Obama and the G20: Is
it 1933 all over again? BusinessWeek, 30 March 2009.
6
Jeffrey Frankel, Obstacles to international macroeconomic policy coordination. NBER Working
Paper No. 25050. Cambridge MA, National Bureau of Economic Research, February, 1988.
7
Barry Eichengreen, Should there be a coordinated response to the problem of global imbalances?
Can there be one? DESA Working Paper No.69. New York, United Nations Department of Economic
and Social Affairs, September, 2008.
8
Frankel, Obstacles to international macroeconomic policy coordination.
2
3. values of the target variables should be (for example, what size and sign of
current account balance); what the appropriate policy measures should be (for
example, the balance between fiscal consolidation, exchange rate adjustment
and so forth); and agreement on the impact of those changes (for example, the
size and sign of the impact of a given exchange rate on the current account
balance – that is, agreement on the underlying economic model).
Stage 2: the countries must negotiate how the gains from coordination will be
shared.
Stage 3: The final agreement must be enforced, including a way of monitoring
adherence to the agreement and a policy on what should be done if either party
fails to live up to its commitments.
It seems clear that, in the current context, all three stages are going to be problematic.
Start with Stage 1. First off, we have no agreement on the nature of the problem.
There is ongoing debate over the extent to which global imbalances are a risk to the
global economy, and over whether they were a significant contributor to the global
financial crisis (GFC). There is no clear agreement on what a sustainable current
account surplus or deficit is, let alone what the ‘optimum’ value of those variables
should be. And there is no agreement on policy tools or the underlying model. For
example, there are bitter disagreements over whether exchange rate adjustment will
‘work’, and over how far China’s current exchange rate is from its equilibrium value.
Making progress even on these first steps looks tough.
Things look little better with Stage 2. Here, the increased size of the negotiating club
(G20 vs. G7 – or actually G5 in the case of Plaza) and the increase in membership
heterogeneity both serve to make reaching agreement even harder than in the past.
A further complication here is that countries have to be able to deliver on the
agreements they agree to. But remember, for example, that the US was either
unwilling or unable to deliver on the fiscal adjustment that it had agreed to as part of
the Plaza Accord.
This brings us neatly on to Stage 3, and enforcement, which seems to present
insurmountable problems. Perhaps most plausible option for an enforcement
mechanism is something based on peer review. But going on past performance, this is
unlikely to deliver: The IMF’s Multilateral Consultation on Global Imbalances was a
complete failure; Likewise the EU’s process for monitoring fiscal sustainability – as
recently evidenced by the Greek debacle; And effective peer review has not even been
a starter in East Asia. Arguably the only success has been the OECD’s process.
Yet if peer review is unlikely to deliver, what is the alternative? Some have suggested
tougher measures, including for example levying taxes on the debt of noncomplying
deficit countries or imposing tariffs on imports from, and subsidies on exports to,
9
surplus countries. But reaching international agreement on trigger levels for these
9
Anne O. Krueger, Persistent global imbalances, in Rebalancing the global economy: A primer for
policymakers, ed. Stijn Claessens, Simon J Evenett, and Bernard HoekmanvoxEU.org, 2010.
3
4. penalties would be extremely tough, and unilateral imposition (aka trade wars) seems
a more plausible outcome. Finally, some version of the Keynes Plan for an
10
international clearing union also seems out of reach.
Depressed global growth?
There is certainly a good case to be made for the proposition that we are in for a
prolonged period of subpar global growth. The idea that the developed world in
particular is facing a ‘new normal’ characterised by lower growth rates, more debt,
higher unemployment, tougher regulation, greater government intervention and a
11
reduced tolerance for risk has gained a lot of traction.
There is also some empirical support for this gloomy outlook. The IMF, for example,
has looked at the history of financial stress and economic cycles in 17 advanced
12
economies over the past 30 years, and identified 113 episodes of financial stress. A
review of these 113 episodes saw the Fund conclude that slowdowns and recessions
that were preceded by financial stress episodes have tended to be both longer in
duration and, partly as a result, more severe, than those that were not. Similarly, a
related IMF study looked at recessions and recoveries in 21 advanced economies over
13
the past 50 years. This research confirmed the finding that recessions associated
with financial crises have tended to be more severe and longer lasting than recessions
associated with other shocks. Recoveries from these recessions have also tended to be
slower, associated with weaker domestic demand and tight credit. In addition,
recessions that are highly synchronized across countries have been longer and deeper
than those confined to one region, with weaker recoveries.
Since the GFC has been both highly synchronized and triggered by a deep financial
crisis, these findings are bad news for global growth prospects: history would indicate
that we should expect not only the severe downturn that we have already suffered, but
also a sluggish recovery. Recent work by Reinhart and Reinhart also suggests that
economic growth is typically subdued in the decade following an adverse macro
14
economic shock.
But if the outlook for the developed world looks grim, what about the prospects for
emerging markets? After all, these economies have become increasingly important
drivers of global growth over recent years, due to a selfreinforcing combination of
rapid growth rates and a rising share of global output. Can’t emerging markets be
relied upon to lift global growth?
10
On the Keynes plan, and a proposal to update it for contemporary circumstances, see Vijay Joshi and
Robert Skidelsky, Keynes, global imbalances and international macroeconomic reforms, today, in
Rebalancing the global economy: A primer for policymakers, ed. Stijn Claessens, Simon J Evenett, and
Bernard HoekmanvoxEU.org, 2010.
11
On the ‘new normal’ see for example Mohamed ElErian, A new normal. Secular Outlook, PIMCO,
May, 2009.
12
International Monetary Fund (IMF), Financial stress and economic downturns, in World Economic
Outlook: Financial stress, downturns and recoveries. Washington DC, International Monetary Fund,
2008.
13
International Monetary Fund (IMF), From recession to recovery: How soon and how strong?, in
World Economic Outlook: Crisis and recovery. Washington DC, International Monetary Fund, 2009.
14
Summarised in Carmen M Reinhart and Vincent R Reinhart, Diminished expectations, double dips
and external shocks: The decade after the fall. VoxEU.org, 13 September, 2010.
4
5. The rise, fall and rise again of decoupling
With emerging market growth significantly outpacing growth in developed economies
since the start of the current millennium, the original answer to this question was an
optimistic one.
The theory of decoupling asserted that, such was the shift of growth momentum in
favour of the emerging markets, the latter would increasingly become independent
poles of growth in the global economy. Emerging markets’ reliance on the developed
world to be an external driver of their economic performance would decline and as
15
result, their economic growth – and hence their financial markets – would decouple.
Initially, the argument seemed to have some merit: even after the bursting of the US
subprime bubble in mid2007 and then on into early 2008, there was little sign that
growth was suffering in emerging markets. Indeed, even as the Fed cut US policy
rates in an attempt to shore up activity, policymakers in several key emerging markets
were tightening policy in response to worries about overheating. And emerging
economy financial markets also appeared to be resilient, continuing to rise until
around November 2007.
The failure of Lehman Brothers and the economic chaos that followed prompted a
rethink. In the immediate aftermath of September 2008, the decoupling thesis looked
nonsensical: as global trade and capital flows collapsed, growth crashed in both
emerging markets and developed economies. Indeed, the size of output declines in
many emerging markets significantly exceeded those experienced by the United
States and the United Kingdom, which were right at the epicentre of the crisis.
Since then, however, the success of China in particular, and to a lesser extent India, in
delivering positive economic growth in 2009, together with signs of a Vshaped
recovery in some other emerging markets, means that the decoupling thesis has made
a comeback, albeit in a more modest version than its earlier incarnation: the idea of
relative invulnerability to a major rich country shock has been buried, but the prospect
16
of significant growth outperformance remains.
One useful way of thinking about this is in terms of a distinction between cyclical and
17
structural decoupling. The synchronized fall in global activity after September 2008
confirmed that cyclical ‘coupling’ is still a reality. But the sustained growth out
performance by emerging markets both before and after the crisis suggests that
structural growth rates may well have decoupled from the developed world. That in
turn should provide at least some cause for a bit of cautious optimism to apply to what
would otherwise be a rather dismal global outlook.
15
M. Ahyan Kose, Christopher Otrok and Eswar Prasad, Dissecting the decoupling debate. VoxEU.org,
4 October, 2008.
16
Peter Stein, Asian growth revives 'Decoupling' Concept. The Wall Street Journal, 14 September
2009.
17
See for example Otaviano Canuto, Recoupling or switchover: Developing countries in the global
economy. Washington DC, The World Bank, 2010.
5
6. References
Bergsten, C. Fred. A call for an "Asian Plaza". The International Economy, Spring
2008, pp 1215, 70.
Canuto, Otaviano. Recoupling or switchover: Developing countries in the global
economy. Washington DC, The World Bank 2010.
Cline, William R. The case for a new Plaza Agreement. Policy Briefs in International
Economics PB054. Washington DC, Institute for International Economics,
December 2005.
Eichengreen, Barry. Should there be a coordinated response to the problem of global
imbalances? Can there be one? DESA Working Paper No.69. New York,
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, September 2008.
ElErian, Mohamed. A new normal. Secular Outlook, PIMCO, May 2009.
Financial Times. A survival plan for global capitalism. Financial Times, 8 March
2009.
Frankel, Jeffrey. Obstacles to international macroeconomic policy coordination.
NBER Working Paper No. 25050. Cambridge MA, National Bureau of
Economic Research, February 1988.
Gilpin, Robert. The rise of American hegemony. In Two hegemonies: Britain 1846
1914 and the United States 19412001, edited by Patrick Karl O'Brien and
Armand Clesse, pp 165182. Aldershot, Ashgate Publishing Ltd, 2002.
International Monetary Fund (IMF). Chapter 4. Getting the balance right:
Transitioning out of sustained current account surpluses. In World Economic
Outlook: Rebalancing growth. Washington DC, International Monetary Fund,
2010.
———. Financial stress and economic downturns. In World Economic Outlook:
Financial stress, downturns and recoveries, pp 129158. Washington DC,
International Monetary Fund, 2008.
———. From recession to recovery: How soon and how strong? In World Economic
Outlook: Crisis and recovery, pp 103138. Washington DC, International
Monetary Fund, 2009.
Joshi, Vijay and Robert Skidelsky. Keynes, global imbalances and international
macroeconomic reforms, today. In Rebalancing the global economy: A primer
for policymakers, edited by Stijn Claessens, Simon J Evenett and Bernard
Hoekman, voxEU.org, 2010.
Kose, M. Ahyan, Christopher Otrok and Eswar Prasad. Dissecting the decoupling
debate. VoxEU.org, 4 October 2008.
Krueger, Anne O. Persistent global imbalances. In Rebalancing the global economy:
A primer for policymakers, edited by Stijn Claessens, Simon J Evenett and
Bernard Hoekman, voxEU.org, 2010.
Kuroda, Haruhiko. The "Nixon Shock" and the "Plaza Agreement": Lessons from two
seemingly failed cases of Japan's exchange rate policy. China & World
Economy 12 (1) 2004, pp 310.
LeVine, Steve. Obama and the G20: Is it 1933 all over again? BusinessWeek, 30
March 2009.
Reinhart, Carmen M and Vincent R Reinhart. Diminished expectations, double dips
and external shocks: The decade after the fall. VoxEU.org, 13 September
2010.
Stein, Peter. Asian growth revives 'Decoupling' Concept. The Wall Street Journal, 14
September 2009.
6