This paper focuses on analysis of forecasting sales using quantitative and qualitative methods. This forecast should be able to help create a model for measuring a successes and setting goals from financial and operational view points. The resulting model should tell if we have met our goals with respect to measures, targets, initiatives
Prediction intervals for your forecasts (WK1 model)Martin van Wunnik
This paper sets forth a synergy of existing statistical theories to obtain a clear-cut model for calculating forecasts with prediction intervals, named the “WK1 model”.
Many predictive models calculate a linear or non-linear trend from the historical data and generate a single, discrete forecast value, being a single dot on this defined trend line (i.e. point forecast).
Our “WK1 model” increases the power of such a single discrete point forecast by adding its probable accuracy with top and bottom limits. The decision-maker obtains thus different ranges of values, each within several pre-defined prediction intervals to assess for that specific outcome probability.
Prediction intervals for your forecasts (WK1 model)Martin van Wunnik
This paper sets forth a synergy of existing statistical theories to obtain a clear-cut model for calculating forecasts with prediction intervals, named the “WK1 model”.
Many predictive models calculate a linear or non-linear trend from the historical data and generate a single, discrete forecast value, being a single dot on this defined trend line (i.e. point forecast).
Our “WK1 model” increases the power of such a single discrete point forecast by adding its probable accuracy with top and bottom limits. The decision-maker obtains thus different ranges of values, each within several pre-defined prediction intervals to assess for that specific outcome probability.
Week 4 forecasting - time series - smoothing and decomposition - m.awaluddin.tMaling Senk
Forecasting - time series - smoothing and decomposition methods
Smoothing Method as Moving Averages and exponetial methods. The steps for decomposition methods and example of it. Case study for smothing methods in Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing and Triple Exponential Smoothing
Data Science - Part X - Time Series ForecastingDerek Kane
This lecture provides an overview of Time Series forecasting techniques and the process of creating effective forecasts. We will go through some of the popular statistical methods including time series decomposition, exponential smoothing, Holt-Winters, ARIMA, and GLM Models. These topics will be discussed in detail and we will go through the calibration and diagnostics effective time series models on a number of diverse datasets.
Week 4 forecasting - time series - smoothing and decomposition - m.awaluddin.tMaling Senk
Forecasting - time series - smoothing and decomposition methods
Smoothing Method as Moving Averages and exponetial methods. The steps for decomposition methods and example of it. Case study for smothing methods in Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing and Triple Exponential Smoothing
Data Science - Part X - Time Series ForecastingDerek Kane
This lecture provides an overview of Time Series forecasting techniques and the process of creating effective forecasts. We will go through some of the popular statistical methods including time series decomposition, exponential smoothing, Holt-Winters, ARIMA, and GLM Models. These topics will be discussed in detail and we will go through the calibration and diagnostics effective time series models on a number of diverse datasets.
Financial time series forecasting has received
tremendous interest by both the individual and institutional
investors and hence by the researchers. But the high noise and
complexity residing in the financial data makes this job extremely
challenging. Over the years many researchers have used support
vector regression (SVR) quite successfully to conquer this
challenge. As the latent high noise in the data impairs the
performance, reducing the noise could be effective while
constructing the forecasting model. To accomplish this task,
integration of principal component analysis (PCA) and SVR is
proposed in this research work. In the first step, a set of technical
indicators are calculated from the daily transaction data of the
target stock and then PCA is applied to these values aiming to
extract the principle components. After filtering the principal
components, a model is finally constructed to forecast the future
price of the target stocks. The performance of the proposed
approach is evaluated with 16 years’ daily transactional data of
three leading stocks from different sectors listed in Dhaka Stock
Exchange (DSE), Bangladesh. Empirical results show that the
proposed model enhances the performance of the prediction
model and also the short-term prediction gains more accuracy
than long-term prediction.
Anattemptto forecast demand and buildforecasting modelsis made in the article. The modern business is conducted in the contextof fierce competition. Adequate decisions require deep, comprehensive assessment of the situation and a reliable forecast of developments. Proven methodsof forecastingby extrapolation of the previous results to the future are poorly suited for qualitative changes in theeconomy, especially in a complex, dynamic,and uncertain environment. Acompany that has managed to forecastthe situationcorrectlyearnsadditional profit in comparison with the one that abstained from forecasting. Afirm that made the wrong forecastloses the most. The simplest forecastis to extrapolate the current situation to the future. This technique may be well suited fora stable and clear situation, but it begins to fail in a dynamic and uncertain environment, as well as in the contextof structural adjustments
Combining forecast from different models has shown to perform better than single forecast in most time series. To improve the quality of forecast we can go for combining forecast. We study the effect of decomposing a series into multiple components and performing forecasts on each component separately... The original series is decomposed into trend, seasonality and an irregular component for each series. The statistical methods such as ARIMA, Holt-Winter have been used to forecast these components. In this paper we focus on how the best models of one series can be applied to similar frequency pattern series for forecasting using association mining. The proposed method forecasted value has been compared with Holt Winter method and shown that the results are better than Holt Winter method
Quantitative Math - MATH 132
Credits: Group 4 Reporters S.Y. 2015-2016
The ppt has animations, you'll appreciate the presentation if you'll download it. Thank you
Democratizing Fuzzing at Scale by Abhishek Aryaabh.arya
Presented at NUS: Fuzzing and Software Security Summer School 2024
This keynote talks about the democratization of fuzzing at scale, highlighting the collaboration between open source communities, academia, and industry to advance the field of fuzzing. It delves into the history of fuzzing, the development of scalable fuzzing platforms, and the empowerment of community-driven research. The talk will further discuss recent advancements leveraging AI/ML and offer insights into the future evolution of the fuzzing landscape.
COLLEGE BUS MANAGEMENT SYSTEM PROJECT REPORT.pdfKamal Acharya
The College Bus Management system is completely developed by Visual Basic .NET Version. The application is connect with most secured database language MS SQL Server. The application is develop by using best combination of front-end and back-end languages. The application is totally design like flat user interface. This flat user interface is more attractive user interface in 2017. The application is gives more important to the system functionality. The application is to manage the student’s details, driver’s details, bus details, bus route details, bus fees details and more. The application has only one unit for admin. The admin can manage the entire application. The admin can login into the application by using username and password of the admin. The application is develop for big and small colleges. It is more user friendly for non-computer person. Even they can easily learn how to manage the application within hours. The application is more secure by the admin. The system will give an effective output for the VB.Net and SQL Server given as input to the system. The compiled java program given as input to the system, after scanning the program will generate different reports. The application generates the report for users. The admin can view and download the report of the data. The application deliver the excel format reports. Because, excel formatted reports is very easy to understand the income and expense of the college bus. This application is mainly develop for windows operating system users. In 2017, 73% of people enterprises are using windows operating system. So the application will easily install for all the windows operating system users. The application-developed size is very low. The application consumes very low space in disk. Therefore, the user can allocate very minimum local disk space for this application.
Courier management system project report.pdfKamal Acharya
It is now-a-days very important for the people to send or receive articles like imported furniture, electronic items, gifts, business goods and the like. People depend vastly on different transport systems which mostly use the manual way of receiving and delivering the articles. There is no way to track the articles till they are received and there is no way to let the customer know what happened in transit, once he booked some articles. In such a situation, we need a system which completely computerizes the cargo activities including time to time tracking of the articles sent. This need is fulfilled by Courier Management System software which is online software for the cargo management people that enables them to receive the goods from a source and send them to a required destination and track their status from time to time.
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Final project report on grocery store management system..pdfKamal Acharya
In today’s fast-changing business environment, it’s extremely important to be able to respond to client needs in the most effective and timely manner. If your customers wish to see your business online and have instant access to your products or services.
Online Grocery Store is an e-commerce website, which retails various grocery products. This project allows viewing various products available enables registered users to purchase desired products instantly using Paytm, UPI payment processor (Instant Pay) and also can place order by using Cash on Delivery (Pay Later) option. This project provides an easy access to Administrators and Managers to view orders placed using Pay Later and Instant Pay options.
In order to develop an e-commerce website, a number of Technologies must be studied and understood. These include multi-tiered architecture, server and client-side scripting techniques, implementation technologies, programming language (such as PHP, HTML, CSS, JavaScript) and MySQL relational databases. This is a project with the objective to develop a basic website where a consumer is provided with a shopping cart website and also to know about the technologies used to develop such a website.
This document will discuss each of the underlying technologies to create and implement an e- commerce website.
Water scarcity is the lack of fresh water resources to meet the standard water demand. There are two type of water scarcity. One is physical. The other is economic water scarcity.
Welcome to WIPAC Monthly the magazine brought to you by the LinkedIn Group Water Industry Process Automation & Control.
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Water Industry Process Automation and Control Monthly - May 2024.pdf
Analysis of Forecasting Sales By Using Quantitative And Qualitative Methods
1. *B. Rama Sanjeeva Sresta. Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Application www.ijera.com
ISSN : 2248-9622, Vol. 6, Issue 9, ( Part -2) September 2016, pp.83-86
www.ijera.com 83|P a g e
Analysis of Forecasting Sales By Using Quantitative And
Qualitative Methods
*
B. Rama Sanjeeva Sresta, **
V. Arundhati
*
(Department of Mechanical Engineering, Srinivasa Ramanujan Institute of Technology, Ananthapur, A.P.,
India,)
**
(Department of Mechanical Engineering, Srinivasa Ramanujan Institute Of Technology, Ananthapur , A.P.,
India,)
ABSTRACT
This paper focuses on analysis of forecasting sales using quantitative and qualitative methods. This forecast
should be able to help create a model for measuring a successes and setting goals from financial and operational
view points. The resulting model should tell if we have met our goals with respect to measures, targets,
initiatives.
Keywords: Goals, Qualitative, Quantitative, Success.
I. INTRODUCTION
A Forecast is an estimate of an event
which will happen in feature. The event may be
demand of a product, rainfall at a particular place,
population of country or growth of a technology. In
business, forecast may be classified into technology
forecast, economic forecast and demand forecast.
Combination of hardware and software is called as
“Technology forecast”. Its deals with certain
characteristics such as level of technological
performance, rate of technological advances.
Government agencies and other organizations
involve in collecting data and prediction of
estimate on the general business environment is
“Economic forecast”. Expected level of demand for
goods or services is given by “Demand forecast”.
Two general approaches of forecasting are
Quantitative and Qualitative. Quantitative involves
either projections of historical data or development
of association models which attempt to use casual
variables to arrive at the forecasts. Qualitative
consists mainly of subjective inputs, often of non-
numerical description. Overviews of both methods
are moving average, weighted moving average
method, exponential smoothing method, trend
projection, linear regression analysis.
II. MOVING AVERAGE AND
WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE:
In moving average method the raw data is
converted into a moving average that reflects the
trend in change of demand. The moving average is
an arithmetic average of data over a period of time.
𝐹𝑡+1 = (𝐴1 + 𝐴𝑡−1 + 𝐴𝑡−2 + 𝐴𝑡−3 + − − − − − −
−𝐴(𝑡−𝑛+1))/𝑛 --------------------- 1
In waited moving average
𝐹𝑡+1 = ( 𝑊𝑡 𝐴𝑡 + 𝑊𝑡−1 𝐴𝑡−1 + 𝑊𝑡−2 𝐴𝑡−2
+𝑊𝑡−3 𝐴𝑡−3 + − − − − − − − −
−𝑊𝑡−𝑛+1 𝐴𝑡−𝑛+1)/n ------------------2
Where
𝐹𝑡+1 𝑤𝑒𝑖𝑔𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑚𝑜𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 𝑜𝑓 𝑡 +
1, 𝑊𝑡 = 𝑤𝑒𝑖𝑔𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑊𝑡 = 1𝑛
𝑡=1
III. LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Regression analysis is a method of
predicting the value of one variable based on the
value of other variables used to forecast both time
series and cross sectional data. Two types of
Regression analyses are simple regression and
multiple regressions where there are two or more
predictors, multiple regression analysis is
employed. These models are based on functional
relationships between variables that define the
environment. The value of one variable is based on
the value of other variable to make estimates, must
identify the effective predictors of the variable of
interest. Need to identify variables that are
important indicators and can be measured at the
least cost to use for the forecast. Simple
forecasting model, reflecting an independent and
dependent variable having a relationship
Y=f(X) ------------------------------3
The two types of variables are dependent variable
and independent variable. The functional
relationship between the two can be system of
coordinates where the dependent variable is shown
on the Y and independent variable on X-axis.
Y=f(X) or Y= a + bX.
Where Y=dependent variable, „a‟ is Y intercept, „b‟
is slope of the line, X the time period. Multiple
regression is always better to use as few variables
as predictors as necessary to get a reasonably
RESEARCH ARTICLE OPEN ACCESS
2. *B. Rama Sanjeeva Sresta. Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Application www.ijera.com
ISSN : 2248-9622, Vol. 6, Issue 9, ( Part -2) September 2016, pp.83-86
www.ijera.com 84|P a g e
accurate forecast, in many cases this may not give
accurate results.
The forecast takes the form:
Y=𝑏0 + 𝑏1 𝑋1 + 𝑏2 𝑋2 + − − − − − + 𝑏 𝑛 𝑋 𝑛
--------------------- 4
Where 𝑏0 is intercept and 𝑏1, 𝑏2 − − − − − 𝑏 𝑛 are
coefficiants representing the contribution of the
independent variables 𝑋1, 𝑋2 − − − − − − − −𝑋 𝑛
Multiple regressions are used when two
are more independent factors are involved, and it is
widely used short to intermediate term forecast.
They are used to assess the factors which have to
be included (or) excluded. They can be used to
develop alternate models with different factors.
Developing a model with environmental forces that
are important to one organization may not be
important for another. A small scale or medium
scale manufacturer may be interested in demand in
the local market, government plans in infrastructure
development, cost and availability of power etc.
Three goals of analysis of the environmental forces
are forecasting, modeling, characterization.
Fig1: forecasting and decision-making
IV. NUMERICAL EXAMPLES
4.1 Case study 1
Company ABC wants to forecast the sale
for the next 12 months based upon a simple moving
average and weighted moving average, using 5
previous periods as the data base, will prove
accurate forecast method. To found out which
method will provide it with mare accurate
forecasts. Where the different periods of time in the
past for instant.
Time in past weight age
5 years ago 0.01
4 years ago 0.05
3years ago 0.25
2 years ago 0.3
Last year 0.4
Table 1: Best Accurate Forecast Analysis
Month Sales Total Off 5 Periods Moving
Average(MA)
Weighted Moving
Average(WMA)
1 1104.0
2 1500.0
3 1460.0
4 1880.0
5 1724.0 7668 1533.6 1687.76
6 2034.0 8598 1719.6 1870.09
7 2404.0 9502 1900.4 2090.49
8 2698.0 10740 2148 2390.33
9 2972.0 11832 2366.4 2102.12
10 2852.0 12960 2592 2819.24
11 3248.0 14174 2834.8 3026.47
12 3172.0 14942 2988.4 3100.77
3. *B. Rama Sanjeeva Sresta. Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Application www.ijera.com
ISSN : 2248-9622, Vol. 6, Issue 9, ( Part -2) September 2016, pp.83-86
www.ijera.com 85|P a g e
1. Flowchart for Forecast Analysis
Fig1: Flow Chart for Accurate Forecast Analysis
4.2 Case study2
Company of sales in millions of dollars using the principal of least squares fit a straight line trend
equation form the data also determining the sum of squares of deviation forecast the sales for the month of 13 &
14
Table2: Analysis of Linear Regression
For 13𝑡
month forecast=4507.9985
For 14𝑡
month forecast is= 4854.7675
V. CONCLUSION
Forecast has a high level of accuracy. These are
simple, commonsense rules made up and then
tested to see whether they should be kept. Example
of simple forecasting rules could include
exponential smoothing, moving averages,
predictive theories, subjective information
etc…The data collected for making forecasts can
also be used to measure performance
characteristics. At the end of the day, it is not the
sophistication of the forecasting technique but the
ability to recognize the pattern of data accurately
and to put it to use effectively. This determines the
best forecasting method.
The best method is weighted moving average
method.
Month(X) Sales(Y) XY 𝑋2
𝑌2
𝑌′ Deviation (Y-𝑌′
)
1 1104.0 1104 1 1218816 346.770 757.23
2 1500.0 3000 4 2250000 693.539 806.461
3 1460.0 4380 9 2131600 1040.308 419.692
4 1880.0 7520 16 3534400 1387.077 492.923
5 1724.0 8620 25 2972176 1733.846 -9.846
6 2034.0 12204 36 4137156 2080.615 -46.615
7 2404.0 16828 49 5779216 2427.382 -23.382
8 2698.0 21584 64 7279204 2774.153 -76.153
9 2972.0 26748 81 8832784 3120.922 -148.922
10 2852.0 28520 100 8133904 3467.691 -615.691
11 3248.0 35728 121 10549504 3814.460 -566.46
12 3172.0 38064 144 10061584 4161.229 -989.229
78 27048
𝑋=78/12=6.5
𝑌= 27048/12=2254
a= 2254-346.769(6.5)=0.0015 ,
b=346.769
b= ( 𝑋𝑌-n𝑋 𝑌)/( 2𝑋 -n𝑋2
)
Therefore Y=0.0015+346.769(X)