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AN INTRO TO RELIABILITY
By Bijli VM
QUALITY & RELIABILITY
QUALITY
•Conformance to specifications
•Fitness for intended use
(Juran)
•Meeting or exceeding
customer expectations
(Deming)
•Conformity to standards set by
industry or organisation that
must align with customer needs
2
RELIABILITY
QUALITY & RELIABILITY
 GARVINS 8 DIMENSIONS OF [PRODUCT]
QUALITY
◦ PERFORMANCE
◦ FEATURES
◦ RELIABILITY
◦ CONFORMANCE
◦ DURABILITY
◦ SERVICEABILITY
◦ AESTHETICS
◦ PERCEIVED QUALITY
3
QUALITY & RELIABILITY
 RELIABILITY IS A SUBSET OF
QUALITY
OR
RELIABILITY IS A TOOL TO
ENSURE ‘QUALITY’
4
Understand the different similar
looking terminologies
What is Reliability?
What is Reliability? (Simplest
defn)
 It is the guarantee that the product will
work over its designed life
What do you understand by
reliability?
For my mobile phone
I want a reliability of x%
95%
For a period of y (hrs/ days/ cycles)
2 yrs
CASE HISTORIES OF COST
REDUCTION THROUGH RELIABILITY
 HP reduced service costs by about
70% while increasing the sales by
25% for a measuring instrument
 T-38 Airplane: 1960-1962
◦ Cost of reliability effort: $ 15,00,000
◦ Savings over 3 years: $ 3,20,00,000
 Minuteman I Missile System
◦ 30% reduction in failure rate
◦ $ 16,00,00,000 savings over 10 years
CASE HISTORIES OF COST
REDUCTION THROUGH RELIABILITY
 Texas Instruments
◦ $ 8 million spent
 Reliability of 800 types of semiconductors
improved from one failure in 2,500 hrs to > one
failure in 25,000 hrs
Significance of Reliability
No. of
components
in series
100
250
500
1,000
10,000
100,000
Individual Component reliability
99.999%
Equipment Reliability
99.90%
99.75%
99.50%
99.01%
90.48%
36.79%
99.99%
99.01%
97.53%
95.12%
90.48%
36.79%
0.01%
Significance of Reliability
Farm Tractor
Model Year
1935
1960
1970
1980
1990
No. of Critical
Components
1200
2250
2400
2600
2900
Tractor
Reliability Per
Year (av.
component
reliability is
99.99%)
88.70%
79.90%
78.70%
77.10%
74.80%
No. of tractors
failing per year
per 1,000
tractors
113
201
213
229
252
Cost Escalation of Products
Re 1 Concept Phase
Rs 10 Design Phase
Rs 100 Development Phase
Rs 1,000 Manufacturing Phase
Rs 10,000 Support Phase
OPTIMUM RELIABILITY (trade
off)
Reliability answers questions
like
 What is the probability of my radar
encountering a failure during my
exercise sortie of 50 days?
 Which are the most critical spares I
need to stock as OBS/ B&D for my
sonar?
 What is the expected life of my FCS?
Reliability answers questions
like
 How much will the average life time
increase, if I add redundancy to my
SDN server?
 How many missiles should I have to
ensure destruction of the target?
 What is the probability of my car not
breaking down during the first
10,000kms or 3 years which ever is
lowest
How is Reliability beneficial? (for
engineers)
 Predict PRODUCT/ PROCESS failures
 Understand why failures occur
 Improves the product/ process in an
objective way
 Creates optimised Test Plans
 Predicts spare parts requirement
 Plan maintenance activities and
schedules
 Risk based decision making with spare
consumption data
 Good engineering practice
How is Reliability beneficial? (for
managers)
 Lowers manufacturing costs
◦ Less overtime, rework, downtime, audits &
inspection
 Lowers life cycle costs
◦ Warranty costs, product recalls, customer
dissatisfaction
 Ensures product/ process capability
 Produces evidence for dependability
claims
 Insight into contractual compliance
Risk based decision making
DEFINITION OF RELIABILITY
◦ (1) conditional probability at a given
◦ (2) confidence level that the equipment will
◦ (3) perform its intended function satisfactorily or
without failure i.e. within specified performance
limits
◦ (4) at a given age
◦ (5) for a specified length of time, function period
or mission time when used in a manner and for
the purpose intended
◦ (6) while operating under the specified
application and operation environments with their
associated stress levels
(Reference: Reliability Engg Handbook by Dimitri Kececioglu) 19
Reliability is usually represented in a
graph vs time
RELIABILITY ENGG
DEFINITION
 Provides the theoretical and practical tools
whereby the probability and capability of parts,
components, equipment, products, subsystems,
and systems to perform their required functions
without failure for desired periods in specified
environments, i.e. their desired optimised reliability,
can be specified, predicted, designed in, tested,
demonstrated, packaged, transported, stored,
installed and started up, and their performance
monitored and fed back to all concerned
organisations, and any needed corrective actions
taken, the results of these actions being followed
through to see if the units reliability has improved,
and similarly for their desired and optimised
maintainability, availability and safety and quality
levels at desired confidence levels and at
competitive prices
The Concept of System
Effectiveness
 System Effectiveness is the product of
◦ Operational Readiness
◦Mission Reliability
◦ Design Adequacy
 SE = OR*RM*DA = Nac
Nt
Nac – No. of systems that accomplish all designed for mission
objectives when called upon to do so at a point in time
Nt – Total no. of systems in hand
System Effectiveness
 What should be the total no. of missiles
on hand when Nac = 100 such missiles
are required to destroy a target given
that
◦ OR = 0.98
◦ RM = 0.95
◦ DA = 0.90 Nt = ?
 SE = Nac/ Nt = OR*RM*DA=0.98*0.95*0.90=0.8379
 0.8379= Nac/ Nt = 100/ Nt
 Therefore Nt = 100/0.8379
 i.e. 119 missiles
THANK YOU ALL
Thank You Mr Dimitri Kececioglu

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An intro to Reliability

  • 1. AN INTRO TO RELIABILITY By Bijli VM
  • 2. QUALITY & RELIABILITY QUALITY •Conformance to specifications •Fitness for intended use (Juran) •Meeting or exceeding customer expectations (Deming) •Conformity to standards set by industry or organisation that must align with customer needs 2 RELIABILITY
  • 3. QUALITY & RELIABILITY  GARVINS 8 DIMENSIONS OF [PRODUCT] QUALITY ◦ PERFORMANCE ◦ FEATURES ◦ RELIABILITY ◦ CONFORMANCE ◦ DURABILITY ◦ SERVICEABILITY ◦ AESTHETICS ◦ PERCEIVED QUALITY 3
  • 4. QUALITY & RELIABILITY  RELIABILITY IS A SUBSET OF QUALITY OR RELIABILITY IS A TOOL TO ENSURE ‘QUALITY’ 4
  • 5. Understand the different similar looking terminologies
  • 7. What is Reliability? (Simplest defn)  It is the guarantee that the product will work over its designed life
  • 8. What do you understand by reliability? For my mobile phone I want a reliability of x% 95% For a period of y (hrs/ days/ cycles) 2 yrs
  • 9. CASE HISTORIES OF COST REDUCTION THROUGH RELIABILITY  HP reduced service costs by about 70% while increasing the sales by 25% for a measuring instrument  T-38 Airplane: 1960-1962 ◦ Cost of reliability effort: $ 15,00,000 ◦ Savings over 3 years: $ 3,20,00,000  Minuteman I Missile System ◦ 30% reduction in failure rate ◦ $ 16,00,00,000 savings over 10 years
  • 10. CASE HISTORIES OF COST REDUCTION THROUGH RELIABILITY  Texas Instruments ◦ $ 8 million spent  Reliability of 800 types of semiconductors improved from one failure in 2,500 hrs to > one failure in 25,000 hrs
  • 11. Significance of Reliability No. of components in series 100 250 500 1,000 10,000 100,000 Individual Component reliability 99.999% Equipment Reliability 99.90% 99.75% 99.50% 99.01% 90.48% 36.79% 99.99% 99.01% 97.53% 95.12% 90.48% 36.79% 0.01%
  • 12. Significance of Reliability Farm Tractor Model Year 1935 1960 1970 1980 1990 No. of Critical Components 1200 2250 2400 2600 2900 Tractor Reliability Per Year (av. component reliability is 99.99%) 88.70% 79.90% 78.70% 77.10% 74.80% No. of tractors failing per year per 1,000 tractors 113 201 213 229 252
  • 13. Cost Escalation of Products Re 1 Concept Phase Rs 10 Design Phase Rs 100 Development Phase Rs 1,000 Manufacturing Phase Rs 10,000 Support Phase
  • 15. Reliability answers questions like  What is the probability of my radar encountering a failure during my exercise sortie of 50 days?  Which are the most critical spares I need to stock as OBS/ B&D for my sonar?  What is the expected life of my FCS?
  • 16. Reliability answers questions like  How much will the average life time increase, if I add redundancy to my SDN server?  How many missiles should I have to ensure destruction of the target?  What is the probability of my car not breaking down during the first 10,000kms or 3 years which ever is lowest
  • 17. How is Reliability beneficial? (for engineers)  Predict PRODUCT/ PROCESS failures  Understand why failures occur  Improves the product/ process in an objective way  Creates optimised Test Plans  Predicts spare parts requirement  Plan maintenance activities and schedules  Risk based decision making with spare consumption data  Good engineering practice
  • 18. How is Reliability beneficial? (for managers)  Lowers manufacturing costs ◦ Less overtime, rework, downtime, audits & inspection  Lowers life cycle costs ◦ Warranty costs, product recalls, customer dissatisfaction  Ensures product/ process capability  Produces evidence for dependability claims  Insight into contractual compliance Risk based decision making
  • 19. DEFINITION OF RELIABILITY ◦ (1) conditional probability at a given ◦ (2) confidence level that the equipment will ◦ (3) perform its intended function satisfactorily or without failure i.e. within specified performance limits ◦ (4) at a given age ◦ (5) for a specified length of time, function period or mission time when used in a manner and for the purpose intended ◦ (6) while operating under the specified application and operation environments with their associated stress levels (Reference: Reliability Engg Handbook by Dimitri Kececioglu) 19
  • 20. Reliability is usually represented in a graph vs time
  • 21. RELIABILITY ENGG DEFINITION  Provides the theoretical and practical tools whereby the probability and capability of parts, components, equipment, products, subsystems, and systems to perform their required functions without failure for desired periods in specified environments, i.e. their desired optimised reliability, can be specified, predicted, designed in, tested, demonstrated, packaged, transported, stored, installed and started up, and their performance monitored and fed back to all concerned organisations, and any needed corrective actions taken, the results of these actions being followed through to see if the units reliability has improved, and similarly for their desired and optimised maintainability, availability and safety and quality levels at desired confidence levels and at competitive prices
  • 22. The Concept of System Effectiveness  System Effectiveness is the product of ◦ Operational Readiness ◦Mission Reliability ◦ Design Adequacy  SE = OR*RM*DA = Nac Nt Nac – No. of systems that accomplish all designed for mission objectives when called upon to do so at a point in time Nt – Total no. of systems in hand
  • 23. System Effectiveness  What should be the total no. of missiles on hand when Nac = 100 such missiles are required to destroy a target given that ◦ OR = 0.98 ◦ RM = 0.95 ◦ DA = 0.90 Nt = ?  SE = Nac/ Nt = OR*RM*DA=0.98*0.95*0.90=0.8379  0.8379= Nac/ Nt = 100/ Nt  Therefore Nt = 100/0.8379  i.e. 119 missiles
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  • 25. THANK YOU ALL Thank You Mr Dimitri Kececioglu