This document is a report from Amárach Research titled "From Recession to Restart" dated July 2010. The report discusses Ireland's economic recovery from recession and focuses on three main topics: 1) examining if Ireland has reached an economic recovery yet, 2) analyzing shifts in Irish consumer confidence and spending habits, and 3) identifying growing industries and business opportunities emerging from the recession. The report utilizes data and research to argue that while the recovery will be gradual, Ireland is turning a corner from recession as consumer spending increases and unemployment peaks in the summer of 2010.

1. From Recession to Restart
gearing up for the next wave of growth
Gerard O’Neill
Amárach Research
July 2010
© Amárach Research, 2010
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2. 1. Ireland’s Recovery
are we there yet?
2. Irish Consumers
it’s in the mind
3. Catch the Wave
follow the money
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3. 1. Ireland’s Recovery
are we there yet?
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4. Ireland at a Turning Point
?
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5. A Soft Takeoff
Consumer spending recovering through 2011
Unemployment will peak this summer
Deflation will slowly turn to inflation by 2011
Government spending contracting through 2011
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6. Business Confident
June 2010
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7. Back Where We Started
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8. Think Global
3%+
2%+
2%+
9%+
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9. The fundamental drivers of growth are
stronger than they have been at any point
in human history. These include the
increasing number of highly educated and
capable people in the world, the
breathtaking speed of technological
breakthroughs, globalization, the inclusion
of ‘the next billion’ into the world economy,
and relative political stability.
Hans-Paul Buerkner
Boston Consulting Group
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10. 2. Irish Consumers
it’s in the mind
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11. DABDA did it
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12. from recession to restart

13. ... confidence drives consumption
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14. Some Hope
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15. Car Sales Catching Up
50,000 120%
45,000 100%
40,000 80%
35,000 60%
40%
30,000
20%
25,000
0%
20,000
-20%
15,000 -40%
10,000 -60%
5,000 -80%
0 -100%
2006M11
2007M11
2008M11
2009M11
2006M01
2006M03
2006M05
2006M07
2006M09
2007M01
2007M03
2007M05
2007M07
2007M09
2008M01
2008M03
2008M05
2008M07
2008M09
2009M01
2009M03
2009M05
2009M07
2009M09
2010M01
2010M03
2010M05
No. Of New Passenger Vehicles Registered Year-on-Year % Growth
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16. Price, Price, Price
Choice of Supermarket: Choice of Supermarket:
No. 1: Convenience (61%) No. 1: Price (62%)
No. 2: Price (31%) No. 2: Convenience (43%)
No. 3: Quality (21%) No. 3: Quality (10%)
Take advantage of special offers and coupons:
2007: 30% 2010: 53%
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17. 3. Catch the Wave
follow the money
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18. The Pope’s Grandchildren
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19. Big Night In
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20. Family Time
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21. Don’t Forget the Grandparents
www.businessofageing.com
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22. A Very Direct Response
Addressed Direct Mail
1.5 per week Interest
Transactional Mail
1.2 per week
Likeability
Door Drops
6.7 per week
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23. DM Works
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23

24. Life Online
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25. from recession to restart 25

26. A Path to Recovery
restoring trust
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27. Who do you trust?
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28. The Big Switch
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29. New Realities, New Opportunities
Pre-Recession Post-Recession
Whatever it costs What does it cost?
Leverage borrowings Deleverage debts
Meet in the hall Meet at the dinner table
Technology as distraction Technology as connection
Text me Write me
Trust your boss Trust your mum!
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30. ‘Irishness’: about restoring trust
and forging deeper, emotional
connections with the Irish people.
It’s back to 2002/2003: manage
your costs and your business
accordingly.
Focus on loyalty: you can’t afford
to take it for granted any more.
Stay in touch: use the direct
approach when you have
customer permission to do so.
And remember: all recessions end
in recovery – and so will this one.
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31. Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
T. (01) 410 5200 E: gerard.oneill@amarach.com
from recession to restart www.amarach.com B: www.amarachresearch.blogspot.com
W: 31