1) The document projects population growth trends for the world's largest cities out to 2050, finding that 4 of the top 5 most populated cities will be in South Asia, led by New Delhi, India with 65 million people. 2) It discusses the challenges of supporting such large populations concentrated in small areas and proposes solutions like planned urban developments and converting to high-rise and public transportation-centered living. 3) Globalization and technology development trends are analyzed, finding a shift from uniform collaboration to regionalization of efforts, with countries like China, India, Japan, UK, Germany, Russia pursuing more independent paths.

1. CBIR Consulting
Anil Sharma
sharma_anil@yahoo.com

2. Alarming worldwide population growth and immigration flow trends
“One day you would read through the data as if you are reading through text.”
I was looking at population data of world’s biggest metros just last month. When I paid attention
to growth trends and analyzed data, I could not help but “see” alarming statistics of future that would
dawn upon us and not so distant in future. I extrapolated last 40 years of data and projected it out for
another 40 years simply just based on CAGR growth as I don’t see any factors which would mend the
core growth drivers responsible for this staggering growth in population. Here is the table.
Simple CAGR projection: Top 10 metros by population by 2050 (and do you need 2070 story?)
A simple line chart comparison would depict the abnormalities in population growth trends in
some of the biggest metros of the world in much better way.
When one would pay attention to 2050 metro population numbers, person would not help but just
be surprised by the following facts:

3. a) By 2050, Indian subcontinent would have the 4 out of 5 most populated and resource pressured
metros of the world and Asia would have all five of them. Here are the details:
1. New Delhi, India, 65 million
2. Dhaka, Bangladesh, 50 million
3. Shanghai, China, 46.2 million
4. Mumbai (Bombay), India, 46.1 million
5. Karachi, Pakistan, 44 million
All 4 Indian subcontinent cities were once part of North Indian plains under the “Mughal”
and British colonial rule and have been growing since Greek invasion of Himalayan plains. (port
cities and capital cities i.e. easy immigration infrastructure, labor jobs). 2000 years of historical
wars have created lots of “soldier” class gene pool in area.
Mumbai local train
b) Most of the western hemisphere cities would have shown population growth rate clip by then but
these Indian subcontinent metros would have growth slope.
c) We would have some African continent metro in top 10 metros by population list by then.
By 2050, there would be nothing like “New Delhi’ India on the face of this planet. With a total
metro population of approximately 65 million, it would be the largest and unseen accumulation of
humanoids in one small habitat of approximately 200 KM by 200 KM sqr. Size and economy of area
would not only rival small countries but some of the “well known good size” countries of the world.
There would be no other comparable metropolis in sight when you would compare New Delhi with
other buildups of the world in terms of sheer size of population, economy and cities infrastructure
needs as it
1. is capital city of the country, India
2. would be most populous city on planet by then,
3. would create enormous pressure on the geography of area(water, minerals & green cover)
4. would have 4 out of 5 biggest metropolis as its neighbors
Roll forward to 2050, Indian by then would probably be the world’s biggest economy or very
close to it but I guess even that would not be sufficient for supporting such a big accumulation of
human population in one small ecosystem of subcontinent. Some of the developments which could
help ease pressure on resources and help sustainable development environment are:

4. 1. Infrastructure development for very high population concentration area living
Unmanaged growth that has already happened and has resulting into “high population
concentration” can be corrected or made sustainable in multiple ways. Some of the solutions are:
a) Creation of adjacent Planned Urban Developments (PUDs), smart communities and hub centers and
then move of shopping and work in new developments
b) Conversion of buildup into city center living quarters: addition of high rise living, connected public
transportation hubs, work center buildings, multi-story industry parks etc
c) Training people for walking distance living (shopping, living & working in one place), public
transportation living (no personal vehicle living i.e. clean streets and no garages)
High concentration population living in “shareable use places” adds economies for all habitants.
Economies of scale drive down overall costs of living and this move creates “higher standards of
living for everyone”. Things like transportation, parks and recreation moves to public systems and
thereby creates opportunity for more shareable infrastructure such as:
1. Education hubs/cities
2. High speed “urban-distance” mass transit
3. Organized healthcare system for “high” patient overturn (low cost factory mode over
insured “quality” mode)
4. Created job centers: Banking, Government and Utilities back offices etc.
We already know that in 2007 balance of world population has tilted from being “rural” to being
“urban”. More and more people now live in high concentration living setups and build-ups. Need for
such planned efforts which would convert metro areas into “high concentration living spaces” would
only rise and might become an industry in itself. Some of the smart city efforts are on these lines.
2. Metros’ share in ‘World’ globalization & worldwide cooperative technology development efforts
Competition fuels innovation and entrepreneurship which increases overall intellectual capital of
society m the place. Recent regional development trends (BRIC, UN-Eastern Europe peace mission,
Rebirth of Russia under Putin) have created unique balance in “world” competition. Worldwide
globalization and co-operative technology development that was happening in last 30 years has started
seeing some challenges. We have recently tipped out of a period of uniform and harmonic global
collaborative in technology development to a silo’d and regional power led distributed and secretive
R&D investments phase. Some simple examples would be Brexit – Euro, Russia back in territory
development, Revival of economies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, US – Iran/ISIS, China is
middle-east etc. Here are some major global developments of the last decade:
 China has gone through a rapid internal development period of around 10% growth rate. Duration of
this infrastructure development effort and technology leadership push spans 30+ years. In
technologies like low cost manufacturing, high speed air and terrestrial transportation, solar energy,
shipping, international economics, civil engineering and mining, one can easily say that self
sufficiency has been achieved and China is now a ranked competitive force on international stage. It
has already started playing as regional power in Middle-east and Africa development. China is very
active in US as well specially SF Silicon Valley area. Chinese real estate companies have recently
made more than a billion dollars worth of investments north San Jose, CA area.

5.  Japan is on its own for longer time now. It went through a phase of very slow development in 90s with
the crash of auto industry (stagflation phase). It could not compete in Computing and IT revolution of
the world. Recently through with its success in light weight, wearable and entertainment electronics,
Robotics, AI and AR/VR Japan is back on world technology scene.
 India recently freed itself and is moving towards self sufficiency model in IT and Software
development, business processes and support services, global infrastructure development and media
technologies industry. It has its own pre-established well functioning defense technology development,
railway and government infrastructure upkeep and military upgrade relationships as well.
 UK has branched away and moved out to its own zone leaving Euro. That move should result into new
financial products, luxury products, packed foods and tourism and transportation industry companies
ranks and orders in atleast Europe.
 Germany would face a period of limited choices as Euro zone leader and has to get into business
competition with UK. Unification and Euro integration liked business power benefit would start
vanishing and polarization in European business leadership would happen.
 Russia and Eastern Europe can easily be put into the category of “Reborn” territories as local business
revival and internal infrastructure development has already started making an impact on social and
political scene. These would become new markets for the world.
 US had total technology leadership and had controlled business modernization processes throughout
the world in last 3 to 4 decades. However, bullet points above would indicate that drift has already
started happening. At very high level, one can easily say that new globalization projects base for US
business development efforts has very limited geographical spread mostly restricted to Latin America,
Africa, Dutch, Nordic region and Middle East. That limit would indicate that US might enter into a
phase of internal development over extending its footprint on world stage.
For developing countries like India, there are now many choices when it comes to making
business and tactical relationships in world. It is very visible as well if you pay attention to recent trade
and economic relationship development announcements. Russia as partner is back and so is Japan.
Middle East is now a big international job market. Indian multi-nationals are now well present in
Europe. International co-operation partnerships can be chosen by tech focus areas now instead of
selecting a global partner and sourcing its technologies i.e. relationship planning could be technology
based over country relationship based. When it comes to developing countries, some of the new
technology growth areas and innovation sourcing choices are as follows:
Solar: Energy industry policy and “local factors” would dictate choice of international technology
partner. China as technology source is very valid choice these days for most of the governments.
Space: It is mostly research and exploration area these days with limited budgets. Non-governmental
private enterprise partnerships are now possible in space technology development. Defense research in
space technology is not a major focus these days. Its use in missile development programs is well
managed and relationships are mostly visibly transparent.
Vehicle: Main focus areas are
a) Electrical vehicles: May be a little worry for Middle-east (they practically live off of oil
money.)
b) Car electronics: Mostly for entertainment and “drivers’ comfort and should not create any
negative market or bias.

6. c) Automated driving: Job for “Drivers”: Again technology development is being promoted by
private sector and would probably affect top 5% of luxury buyer market. There is a big
“drivers” job market in that segment but it should not see major impact because of “luxury”
product class marking (only person in the car use, use knowhow).
High speed transportation: UK and Japan are back on scene for urban-distance mass transit
partnerships, Private ownership is a possibility as well in most of the developing countries.
Biologics: Knowledge about human body and its interaction with eco system around it was never so
abundant. Growth areas are: Biotech, Bioelectronics, Biochemistry, Generic pharma etc. Again
developing countries have a list of potential technology partners over just two or three big global
leaders. India itself is big player in this space now.
Electronics for connectivity and comfort: It is very global market. Asia is now big player. Focus
areas are: Wearables, IOT, Mobile devices
Data intensive computing: Computing has been very successful in its productivity improvement and
knowledge creation use. However, these days it competes with other productivity improvement
investments such as connectivity, operations improvements etc. for budgets.
Reality There is good focus on virtual and augmented reality technologies when it comes to their use
in collaboration and entertainment experience. But these technologies would still have to shrug off
“cool factor and show-off tech” appeal and become more pragmatic and practical use. Korea, China
and Japan are already technology leaders.
Life-style improvement: Some of the “life-style” technologies which have impacted day to day life of
people are: Easy and good accommodation, Good “books to furniture” delivered to you at your home,
Transportation choices and On-line entertainment. Web has been a great enabler and made it possible
for consumers to use services by tapping just few clicks on computer. Solutions are usually global
because of ubiquitous web element.
It would be visible by now from above discussion that “globalization efforts” and international
co-operative technology development have moved from governments control to private enterprises and
free market nature of private industry competition should prevail in long term.
3. Emigration and better job markets for qualified population
There has been a big uptick in job based “legal” US immigration in last 30 years with the advent of
H1-B visa program. H1-B is a visa program for high skill employment and it is mostly used for
international recruitment of career professionals such as software engineers, researchers and
technologists. India has come out as a big source for this type of visa recruitment and these careers. In
last 30 years, about 2 million immigrants have used this visa program and have finally settled in US as
new citizens of the country. Result of immigration on population over years is shown in chart below:
( Chart source: Internet article)

7. One more new happening in emigration out of India theme is revival of middle east
immigration: After many years of turbulence in middle east, situation is much better and under control
now. Economic immigration to middle east has picked up. At very high level, guess would be that this
is core factor behind surge in middle east foreign remittances to India. Table and chart in next section
shows comparison of foreign remittances from different parts of the world to India over years.
Remittances flows to India: Trend chart over last 50 years (Data source: World bank report)
Explanation of table data and graph chart:
Remittances can be classified as middle class “emotional” money that is transferred by a
successful (usually first generation) international workers to his or her near and dear ones in home
country. This usually happens in first few years of new immigrant’s career when person is still well
connected in home country and is a symbol of financial well being of someone in an international
location. If you carefully look at trends, you would notice that “big” switch has happened when it
comes to source of international money transfer to India.
Middle-East is now top source of foreign money transfer and by far probably only growing
source at this point. There are very few growth countries outside of Middle East zone when it comes to

8. foreign remittances. Western countries such as US and UK would at best be considered “on hold”
countries with minuscule growth in last 10+ years. On the other hand, $44 billion of this emotional
money would travel from middle-east and cross international boundaries to reach homes of middle
class families this year along boosting their buying power in international markets and motivating
others to pursue such dreams.
Apart from Middle East and US, immigration from India to Canada, UK, Australia, New Zealand
Singapore/Hong-Kong, Japan and Continental Europe is still strong. There are plenty of jobs and
investment opportunities available in these parts of the world for Indian immigrants. There is also
some relationship or opportunity based immigration that happens to parts of Africa (South Africa,
Nigeria) and Latin America (Brazil, Argentina). Some Indian origin multi-national companies do also
place staff in foreign countries for longer duration which is almost same as “immigration”. All of these
international earnings create foreign income, establish financial wellbeing and replenish coffers.
4. International and Multinational employment
International or global companies with having presence in multiple geographies, operating in
countries with very different systems of government and regimes, using differentiated talent
development and people ranking systems influenced by distinguishly researched management systems
and philosophies carry additional burden of maintaining coherence and sanguinity through global
reporting chains without creating much disparity.
Global process that properly maps skill-set to job types and ranks is even more difficult to run.
Here is an example scenario. How would one create multi-polar talent benchmark pillars in an
organization that should have both “top-down” leadership and “bottons-up” leadership:
This could be compared with governmental system hierarchies where co-existence of multiple
representation pillars is native i.e. in Democracy
a) Populous leadership model: “vote” based section
b) Socialist or Army leadership: Special skills
c) Bureaucratic and Aristocratic leadership: Special trainings and skills
Right balance and proper power equilibrium between representative numbers of all factions
would result into a healthy, peaceful and well functioning work cost center or unit. Proper talent
mapping between different leadership types is important as well.
Below diagram shows one such comparative between populous political leadership and
aristocratic (rule of the best prepared) rigorous “talent” selection based management consulting
leadership:

9. 5. Planned and directed urban city development for population re-balancing
If we carefully look at population and cities growth trends of developing countries, few facts
would become noticeable
1. There are very few new cities in the list of top metros, cities which have come up in last 30 years
under planned effort or otherwise. Examples of such metros would be Songdo, Korea and Sapporo,
Japan i.e. planned cities: infrastructure development driven city growth (Smart and connected city.)
2. Existing big metros specially some of the fastest growing ones are under severe resource (water, green,
usable land) pressure. Examples are Beijing, Mumbai, Delhi
3. Infrastructure development efforts are also reeling under unmanageable and unplanned housing and
job market growth. There is a huge difference between population growth driven forced job market
growth and job market driven organic population growth. Here are some of the variables which would
show very different growth trends in those two urbanization scenarios:
Nature of jobs: Skilled, government, career, management
Availability of finance: Establishment of financial system or pull-in finance companies
Investors: Corporate or local wealth and businesses
Housing market: PUDs, Rental property operators or grown over period housing
Infrastructure and transportation: City before infra or Infra before city
4. While world population has almost doubled in last 30 years i.e. added 4 billion in its folds, names in
the list of big cities with population more than 10 million are mostly the same. During this rapid
growth phase in world population, we have mostly pivoted on existing city centers. There wasn’t just
enough time for new core and city centers development as the pace of growth was unpredictable and

10. was mostly un-accounted for. Now that we have some estimates and measures around humanities
recent growth (8 billion humans actually walk this planet now), we can’t ignore problems of
unplanned city growth and strain it puts on earth’s resources. Along with “new” metro cities
development, rebalancing and move of some “unwanted” population from existing metros to new
developments with proper pre-plans becomes not only a requirement but an imperative.
One such example project in case of India could be: North east India development drive. Under
which development of military establish (army training college, medical college, engineering corp.
training, Cantt. housing etc), new international airport, education hubs, government’s back office
infrastructure, corporate corridors in carefully planned concert might create environment for growth of
a “new big metro” in that area.
Remark:
What is being “mean”? What do you “mean”?
You leave out outliers, take normal sample space elements, sum them up and divide them by their
count. This result is “mean”.
India: Sea of people; Kumbh Mela Panorama