Al Alawi
Applications of hydrogen in industry
Hydrogen’s use in industry can be divided into two main categories: (1) as a reactant in hydrogenation reactions and chemical processes, (2) as fuel and energy carrier. As a reactant, hydrogen is used to produce compounds with lower molecular weight, saturate compounds and crack heavy hydrocarbons into lighter hydrocarbons. In majority of these applications hydrogenation takes place to insert hydrogen atoms and saturate molecule or to cleave a molecule and remove heterogeneous atoms such as sulfur and nitrogen. Among the major uses of hydrogen in chemical industries, ammonia production accounts for almost 50%, petroleum processing accounts for 37%, and methanol production accounts for 8% [1-3].
In petroleum industry, hydrogen is used to react with hydrocarbons in hydroprocessing and hydrocracking processes. In hydroprocessing, hydrogen is used to hydro-genate sulfur and nitrogen compounds (for example from crude oil) and release them as hydrogen sulfide (H2S) and ammonia (NH3). In hydrocracking process, heavy hydrocarbons are cracked into lighter hydrocarbons to produce refined fuels with smaller molecules and higher H/C ratios [3].
Hydrogen is also used for production of methanol. Methanol is a feedstock for manufacturing of other chemicals and materials such as formaldehyde, plastics, plywood, paints, and textiles. In methanol production plants, hydrogen and carbon monoxide are reacted over a catalyst at a high pressure and temperature.
Other application of hydrogen in chemical and petrochemical industries include production of butyraldehyde from propylene, production of acetic acid from syngas, production of butanediol and tetrahydrofuran from maleic anhydride, production of hexamethylene diamine from adiponitrile, and production of cyclohexane from benzene.
In food industry, large amount of hydrogen is used for processing of vegetable oil and decreasing the degree of unsaturation. In this process, an increase in melting point and enhanced resistance to oxidation occur that enables preservation for a longer period of time [3, 6].
Aerospace industry is the primary consumer of fuel hydrogen. A mixture of liquid hydrogen and oxygen has been found to release the highest amount of energy per unit weight of propellant [6]. However, the cost of hydrogen liquefaction, and difficulties associated with safely store and handling it in liquid form have kept liquid hydrogen away from other fuel applications such as in automobiles [3].
Fuel hydrogen is also used in fuel cells to power electrical systems. In a fuel cell, hydrogen and oxygen from air are combined and produce electricity and water.
Production of hydrogen
Industrial processes for production of hydrogen can be divided into thermal such as hydrocarbons reforming, renewable liquid and bio-oil processing, biomass, and coal gasification; electrolytic such as water splitting; photolytic such as splitting of water by sunlight through biological a.
TOP 10 HYDROGEN PRODUCTION COST OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUES
Hydrogen production cost analysis is crucial for understanding the economic viability of hydrogen as an energy source. But do you know what are those Cost Optimization techniques, how to identify, which phase to implement?
Green hydrogen production refers to the process of producing hydrogen gas using renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, or hydropower. Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be used in various sectors, including transportation, industry, and power generation. The "green" in green hydrogen signifies its environmentally friendly nature, as it is produced without emitting carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases.
PRODUCTION OF ALTERNATIVE FUEL USING GASIFICATION BY SYNTHESIS OF FISCHER-TRO...IAEME Publication
The solid carbonaceous fuel is converted into combustible gas (energy) using limited amount of air it is called Gasification process the gases which evolve are known as “producer gas”. This is more suitable than the direct combustion of biomass gases. In this paper an updraft gasifier is construct and is used to carry out the experiment. updraft gasifier is one of the boiler. The waste material like coconut shells, sugarcane waste, and wood particles are used for the generation of producer gas. The sense of this paper is to study the effect of waste products (coconut shells, sugarcane waste, and wood particles) in form of biomass. The performance of the gasifier is evaluated in terms of zone temperature with different air velocity. By taking the different fuels and varying the air flow rate the temperature of the zones are analysed. The arrangement of tar is also seen in this apparatus. After analysis the maximum temperature give for coconut shell (waste) all three place as compare to other two .so coconut shell is the best suitable material for this gasifier.
Introduction:
Hydrogen technologies have come to light as a possible answer to the problems associated with climate change and the switch to clean energy in the pursuit of a sustainable future. The most common element in the universe, hydrogen, has the power to transform a number of sectors and act as a clean energy source. The main features of hydrogen technologies, their uses, and their part in creating a more sustainable world are all examined in this article.
Understanding Hydrogen:
One can obtain hydrogen, a versatile element, by a variety of techniques, including electrolysis, steam methane reforming, and biomass gasification. The ability of hydrogen to produce energy when it interacts with oxygen, producing heat and water as byproducts, is what makes it so alluring. Numerous applications involving hydrogen are centered around this process, which is called fuel cell technology.
TOP 10 HYDROGEN PRODUCTION COST OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUES
Hydrogen production cost analysis is crucial for understanding the economic viability of hydrogen as an energy source. But do you know what are those Cost Optimization techniques, how to identify, which phase to implement?
Green hydrogen production refers to the process of producing hydrogen gas using renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, or hydropower. Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be used in various sectors, including transportation, industry, and power generation. The "green" in green hydrogen signifies its environmentally friendly nature, as it is produced without emitting carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases.
PRODUCTION OF ALTERNATIVE FUEL USING GASIFICATION BY SYNTHESIS OF FISCHER-TRO...IAEME Publication
The solid carbonaceous fuel is converted into combustible gas (energy) using limited amount of air it is called Gasification process the gases which evolve are known as “producer gas”. This is more suitable than the direct combustion of biomass gases. In this paper an updraft gasifier is construct and is used to carry out the experiment. updraft gasifier is one of the boiler. The waste material like coconut shells, sugarcane waste, and wood particles are used for the generation of producer gas. The sense of this paper is to study the effect of waste products (coconut shells, sugarcane waste, and wood particles) in form of biomass. The performance of the gasifier is evaluated in terms of zone temperature with different air velocity. By taking the different fuels and varying the air flow rate the temperature of the zones are analysed. The arrangement of tar is also seen in this apparatus. After analysis the maximum temperature give for coconut shell (waste) all three place as compare to other two .so coconut shell is the best suitable material for this gasifier.
Introduction:
Hydrogen technologies have come to light as a possible answer to the problems associated with climate change and the switch to clean energy in the pursuit of a sustainable future. The most common element in the universe, hydrogen, has the power to transform a number of sectors and act as a clean energy source. The main features of hydrogen technologies, their uses, and their part in creating a more sustainable world are all examined in this article.
Understanding Hydrogen:
One can obtain hydrogen, a versatile element, by a variety of techniques, including electrolysis, steam methane reforming, and biomass gasification. The ability of hydrogen to produce energy when it interacts with oxygen, producing heat and water as byproducts, is what makes it so alluring. Numerous applications involving hydrogen are centered around this process, which is called fuel cell technology.
Supercritical water oxidation for the treatment of various organic wastes: A ...AI Publications
The removal of complex organic and chemical industrial wastes is not accessible using conventional treatment methods. Incineration and hydrothermal oxidation under supercritical conditions are two options for dealing with a wide range of hazardous wastes. Incineration is an effective treatment for removing hazardous waste. The main disadvantages of incineration are a source of unwanted emissions and high operating costs. Supercritical water oxidation (SCWO) is considered a green technology for destroying organic waste with friendly environmental emissions. The removal efficiency reached 99.99% within a short residence time. In this review, the treatment of organic waste by SCWO is shown using co-fuel and catalysts to enhance the performance of SCWO.
PRESENTATION ON PLANT DESIGN FOR MANUFACTURING OF HYDROGENPriyam Jyoti Borah
Steam reforming or steam methane reforming is a method for producing syngas (hydrogen and carbon monoxide) by reaction of hydrocarbons with water. Commonly natural gas is the feedstock. The main purpose of this technology is hydrogen production.The reaction is conducted in a reformer vessel where a high pressure mixture of steam and methane are put into contact with a nickel catalyst. Catalysts with high surface-area-to-volume ratio are preferred because of diffusion limitations due to high operating temperature. Examples of catalyst shapes used are spoked wheels, gear wheels, and rings with holes. Additionally, these shapes have a low pressure drop which is advantageous for this application.
Hydrogen Technologies
Hydrogen is a clean, adaptable energy source that has a wide range of uses.
Read More - https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/industry-practice/hydrogen/hydrogen-technologies-comparison
Surface Chemistry and its impacts on chemical and electronic industryKramikauniyal
The content thoroughly explains about the processes and phenomenon that occur and are related to the surfaces of substances and how are they so impactful in chemical and electronic industry.
PLANT DESIGN FOR MANUFACTURING OF HYDROGEN BY STEAM METHANE REFORMING (SMR)Priyam Jyoti Borah
Steam methane reforming (SMR) is one of the most promising processes for hydrogen production. Several studies have demonstrated its advantages from the economic viewpoint. Nowadays process development is based on technical and economic aspects, however, in the near future; the environmental impact will play a significant role in the design of such processes. In this paper, an SMR process is studied from the viewpoint of overall environmental impact, using an exergoenvironmental analysis. This analysis presents the combination of exergy analysis and life cycle assessment. Components, where chemical reactions occur, are the most important plant components from the exergoenvironmental point of view, because, in general, there is a high environmental impact associated with these components. This is mainly caused by the energy destruction within the components, and this in turn is mainly due to the chemical reactions. The obtained results show that the largest potential for reducing the overall environmental impact is associated with the combustion reactor, the steam reformer, the hydrogen separation unit and the major heat exchangers. The environmental impact in these components can mainly be reduced by improving their exergetic efficiency. A sensitivity analysis for some important exergoenvironmental variables is also presented in the paper.
Comparison Of Corrossion Resistance Of Copper For SamplesIRJESJOURNAL
Abstract :- In order to ensure smooth and uninterrupted flow of oil and gas to the end users, it is imperative for the field operators, pipeline engineers, and designers to be corrosion conscious as the lines and their component fittings would undergo material degradations due to corrosion. This paper gives a comprehensive review of corrosion problems during oil and gas production and its mitigation. The chemistry of corrosion mechanism had been examined with the various types of corrosion and associated corroding agents in the oil and gas industry. Factors affecting each of the various forms of corrosion were also presented. Principles of corrosion must be understood in order to effectively select materials and to design, fabricate, and utilize metal structures for the optimum economic life of facilities and safety in oil and gas operations. This test method covers the determination of the corrosiveness of copper by the petroleum products.
Treatment of refractory organic pollutants in industrial wastewater by wet ai...Muhammad Moiz
Wet air oxidation (WAO) is one of the most economical and environmentally-friendly
advanced oxidation processes. It makes a promising technology for the treatment of refractory
organic pollutants in industrial wastewaters. In wet air oxidation aqueous waste is oxidized in
the liquid phase at high temperatures (125–320 C) and pressures (0.5–20 MPa) in the presence
of an oxygen-containing gas (usually air). The advantages of the process include low operating costs
and minimal air pollution discharges.
Allison Rogers
Professor Koenig
COMM 3313
October 12th, 2018
How My Race Has Impacted My Life
I. Introduction
a. How being white has affected my life in many ways
i. Positive factors from experience
ii. Negative factors from experience
iii. How this has impacted my communication
iv. Are my communication skills stronger or weaker from these experiences?
II. Positive factors from experience
a. Job market is more available to me
a. Opportunities come in simpler form to me
III. Negative factors from experience
a. Assumptions of me being white thinking my life is a breeze from others
b. The unfairness I see every day makes me feel guilty for being white
IV. How this has impacted my very own communication
a. I see things from a general point of view
b. I try my best to be personal when communicating.
c. I remember that we are all human beings who deserve equality.
V. Are my communication skills stronger or weaker?
a. Stronger – My experiences growing up have helped me communicate with everyone equally.
VI. Conclusion
a. The boundaries my race sets me in
b. The opportunities I have because of my race.
Works Cited
Orbe, M. P., & Harris, T. M. (2015). Interracial communication theory into practice. Los Angeles, CA: Sage.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/listen/201803/being-white-in-age-color
https://www.tolerance.org/magazine/fall-2018/what-is-white-privilege-really
https://money.cnn.com/2016/04/13/media/whiteness-project/index.html
https://everydayfeminism.com/2015/11/lessons-white-privilege-poc/
https://www.bustle.com/articles/146867-how-white-privilege-affects-8-people-of-color-on-a-day-to-day-basis
Allison Rogers
Professor Koenig
COMM 3325
October 20th, 2018
Research Paper Conceptual Document:
“The Meaning of July Fourth for the Negro” by Frederick Douglas
1. What is the event or rhetorical moment I will be analyzing and why. Give a brief summary.
· I will be analyzing a speech by Fredrick Douglas that he gave on July 5th in 1852 called, “The Meaning of July Fourth for the Negro”. I chose this speech because I first read this speech this past spring semester in my gender studies class and it was so well written and worded that it literally just brought me to tears with so much emotion behind it. I want to analyze how Douglas put this together and his rhetorical process that he used in order to touch so many people with his words.
2. What methods of evaluation will I be looking for?
· The methods of evaluation I will be looking for in this speech are the following:
(I) The speech objective
(II) The audience and context of the speech
(III) The speeches context and structure
(IV) The delivery skills and techniques he used
(V) Intangibles
3. 8 sources:
· https://www.artofmanliness.com/the-meaning-of-july-fourth-for-the-negro-by-frederick-douglas/
· http://masshumanities.org/files/programs/douglass/speech_abridged_med.pdf
· http://redandgreen.org/speech.htm
· https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aia/part4/4h2927.html
· https://liber.
Allen 1Kiah AllenProfessor HirschENG1018 Feb. 2018Defo.docxsimonlbentley59018
Allen 1
Kiah Allen
Professor Hirsch
ENG101
8 Feb. 2018
Deforestation
The Amazon forest alone creates 20% of the worlds oxygen. It has decreased by 17% in the past 50 years because of deforestation (conserve-energy-future.com). Forest’s in general only cover 30% of the world (conserve-energy-future.com ). Deforestation is killing the trees that produce oxygen, without it humans can’t survive. Deforestation should be prohibited because large plants such as trees recycle air.
If deforestation is such a problem, why does it happen? Deforestation extracts the forest of its resources. It turns the forests into farms, ranches, or urban areas. The wood from trees are used for building or could be sold as fuel. Another big cause of deforestation is quarry’s. Quarry’s take up a lot of land, and once the quarry is abandoned is almost impossible to fix. Hydropower requires dams to be built. Dams create an enormous amount of flooding, which kills thousands of trees. The increase of population is also a cause of deforestation. The more people that are on earth the more land and resources we demand.
If deforestation continues it will have a huge negative impact on our air supply. Everyday a piece of the forests is being destroyed. The more trees that are being destroyed the less oxygen can be produced. Trees use photosynthesis to covert carbon dioxide into oxygen. Photosynthesis is the main producer of oxygen, and respiration and decay remove it. Urban areas have less oxygen then rural areas, because they don’t have many plants. Throughout history oxygen levels have been steadily decreasing. Once the oxygen levels hit 7% the air is too low to support human life (thenaturalhealthplace.com). Finding ways to apply reforestation would help increase oxygen.
There are many ways to apply reforestation to reverse the harm that’s been don’t to the world. One way is to plant trees. There are some cities who have made vertical forests. They plant trees and plants that surround the building. Going paperless would help as well. Since technology has advanced, paper isn’t really needed as often. Recycling and buying recycled products will help as well. The more that people recycle there will be less demand for natural resources and trees. Reforestation will help to reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air.
Deforestation does have a huge negative impact on our world, but there are quite of bit of positive too. The positive effects of deforestation are that it does gives humans space to grow. With growth comes civilizations which means more jobs and revenue. Deforestations also gives us more food and resources to satisfy our needs. It means a more comfortable life for humans. The consequences of deforestation is not worth the temporary comfort that humans get from it.
Deforestation is a serious problem to maintain life on this planet. The decrease in oxygen could eventually mean the end to human kind. If we don’t do anything abo.
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Supercritical water oxidation for the treatment of various organic wastes: A ...AI Publications
The removal of complex organic and chemical industrial wastes is not accessible using conventional treatment methods. Incineration and hydrothermal oxidation under supercritical conditions are two options for dealing with a wide range of hazardous wastes. Incineration is an effective treatment for removing hazardous waste. The main disadvantages of incineration are a source of unwanted emissions and high operating costs. Supercritical water oxidation (SCWO) is considered a green technology for destroying organic waste with friendly environmental emissions. The removal efficiency reached 99.99% within a short residence time. In this review, the treatment of organic waste by SCWO is shown using co-fuel and catalysts to enhance the performance of SCWO.
PRESENTATION ON PLANT DESIGN FOR MANUFACTURING OF HYDROGENPriyam Jyoti Borah
Steam reforming or steam methane reforming is a method for producing syngas (hydrogen and carbon monoxide) by reaction of hydrocarbons with water. Commonly natural gas is the feedstock. The main purpose of this technology is hydrogen production.The reaction is conducted in a reformer vessel where a high pressure mixture of steam and methane are put into contact with a nickel catalyst. Catalysts with high surface-area-to-volume ratio are preferred because of diffusion limitations due to high operating temperature. Examples of catalyst shapes used are spoked wheels, gear wheels, and rings with holes. Additionally, these shapes have a low pressure drop which is advantageous for this application.
Hydrogen Technologies
Hydrogen is a clean, adaptable energy source that has a wide range of uses.
Read More - https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/industry-practice/hydrogen/hydrogen-technologies-comparison
Surface Chemistry and its impacts on chemical and electronic industryKramikauniyal
The content thoroughly explains about the processes and phenomenon that occur and are related to the surfaces of substances and how are they so impactful in chemical and electronic industry.
PLANT DESIGN FOR MANUFACTURING OF HYDROGEN BY STEAM METHANE REFORMING (SMR)Priyam Jyoti Borah
Steam methane reforming (SMR) is one of the most promising processes for hydrogen production. Several studies have demonstrated its advantages from the economic viewpoint. Nowadays process development is based on technical and economic aspects, however, in the near future; the environmental impact will play a significant role in the design of such processes. In this paper, an SMR process is studied from the viewpoint of overall environmental impact, using an exergoenvironmental analysis. This analysis presents the combination of exergy analysis and life cycle assessment. Components, where chemical reactions occur, are the most important plant components from the exergoenvironmental point of view, because, in general, there is a high environmental impact associated with these components. This is mainly caused by the energy destruction within the components, and this in turn is mainly due to the chemical reactions. The obtained results show that the largest potential for reducing the overall environmental impact is associated with the combustion reactor, the steam reformer, the hydrogen separation unit and the major heat exchangers. The environmental impact in these components can mainly be reduced by improving their exergetic efficiency. A sensitivity analysis for some important exergoenvironmental variables is also presented in the paper.
Comparison Of Corrossion Resistance Of Copper For SamplesIRJESJOURNAL
Abstract :- In order to ensure smooth and uninterrupted flow of oil and gas to the end users, it is imperative for the field operators, pipeline engineers, and designers to be corrosion conscious as the lines and their component fittings would undergo material degradations due to corrosion. This paper gives a comprehensive review of corrosion problems during oil and gas production and its mitigation. The chemistry of corrosion mechanism had been examined with the various types of corrosion and associated corroding agents in the oil and gas industry. Factors affecting each of the various forms of corrosion were also presented. Principles of corrosion must be understood in order to effectively select materials and to design, fabricate, and utilize metal structures for the optimum economic life of facilities and safety in oil and gas operations. This test method covers the determination of the corrosiveness of copper by the petroleum products.
Treatment of refractory organic pollutants in industrial wastewater by wet ai...Muhammad Moiz
Wet air oxidation (WAO) is one of the most economical and environmentally-friendly
advanced oxidation processes. It makes a promising technology for the treatment of refractory
organic pollutants in industrial wastewaters. In wet air oxidation aqueous waste is oxidized in
the liquid phase at high temperatures (125–320 C) and pressures (0.5–20 MPa) in the presence
of an oxygen-containing gas (usually air). The advantages of the process include low operating costs
and minimal air pollution discharges.
Allison Rogers
Professor Koenig
COMM 3313
October 12th, 2018
How My Race Has Impacted My Life
I. Introduction
a. How being white has affected my life in many ways
i. Positive factors from experience
ii. Negative factors from experience
iii. How this has impacted my communication
iv. Are my communication skills stronger or weaker from these experiences?
II. Positive factors from experience
a. Job market is more available to me
a. Opportunities come in simpler form to me
III. Negative factors from experience
a. Assumptions of me being white thinking my life is a breeze from others
b. The unfairness I see every day makes me feel guilty for being white
IV. How this has impacted my very own communication
a. I see things from a general point of view
b. I try my best to be personal when communicating.
c. I remember that we are all human beings who deserve equality.
V. Are my communication skills stronger or weaker?
a. Stronger – My experiences growing up have helped me communicate with everyone equally.
VI. Conclusion
a. The boundaries my race sets me in
b. The opportunities I have because of my race.
Works Cited
Orbe, M. P., & Harris, T. M. (2015). Interracial communication theory into practice. Los Angeles, CA: Sage.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/listen/201803/being-white-in-age-color
https://www.tolerance.org/magazine/fall-2018/what-is-white-privilege-really
https://money.cnn.com/2016/04/13/media/whiteness-project/index.html
https://everydayfeminism.com/2015/11/lessons-white-privilege-poc/
https://www.bustle.com/articles/146867-how-white-privilege-affects-8-people-of-color-on-a-day-to-day-basis
Allison Rogers
Professor Koenig
COMM 3325
October 20th, 2018
Research Paper Conceptual Document:
“The Meaning of July Fourth for the Negro” by Frederick Douglas
1. What is the event or rhetorical moment I will be analyzing and why. Give a brief summary.
· I will be analyzing a speech by Fredrick Douglas that he gave on July 5th in 1852 called, “The Meaning of July Fourth for the Negro”. I chose this speech because I first read this speech this past spring semester in my gender studies class and it was so well written and worded that it literally just brought me to tears with so much emotion behind it. I want to analyze how Douglas put this together and his rhetorical process that he used in order to touch so many people with his words.
2. What methods of evaluation will I be looking for?
· The methods of evaluation I will be looking for in this speech are the following:
(I) The speech objective
(II) The audience and context of the speech
(III) The speeches context and structure
(IV) The delivery skills and techniques he used
(V) Intangibles
3. 8 sources:
· https://www.artofmanliness.com/the-meaning-of-july-fourth-for-the-negro-by-frederick-douglas/
· http://masshumanities.org/files/programs/douglass/speech_abridged_med.pdf
· http://redandgreen.org/speech.htm
· https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aia/part4/4h2927.html
· https://liber.
Allen 1Kiah AllenProfessor HirschENG1018 Feb. 2018Defo.docxsimonlbentley59018
Allen 1
Kiah Allen
Professor Hirsch
ENG101
8 Feb. 2018
Deforestation
The Amazon forest alone creates 20% of the worlds oxygen. It has decreased by 17% in the past 50 years because of deforestation (conserve-energy-future.com). Forest’s in general only cover 30% of the world (conserve-energy-future.com ). Deforestation is killing the trees that produce oxygen, without it humans can’t survive. Deforestation should be prohibited because large plants such as trees recycle air.
If deforestation is such a problem, why does it happen? Deforestation extracts the forest of its resources. It turns the forests into farms, ranches, or urban areas. The wood from trees are used for building or could be sold as fuel. Another big cause of deforestation is quarry’s. Quarry’s take up a lot of land, and once the quarry is abandoned is almost impossible to fix. Hydropower requires dams to be built. Dams create an enormous amount of flooding, which kills thousands of trees. The increase of population is also a cause of deforestation. The more people that are on earth the more land and resources we demand.
If deforestation continues it will have a huge negative impact on our air supply. Everyday a piece of the forests is being destroyed. The more trees that are being destroyed the less oxygen can be produced. Trees use photosynthesis to covert carbon dioxide into oxygen. Photosynthesis is the main producer of oxygen, and respiration and decay remove it. Urban areas have less oxygen then rural areas, because they don’t have many plants. Throughout history oxygen levels have been steadily decreasing. Once the oxygen levels hit 7% the air is too low to support human life (thenaturalhealthplace.com). Finding ways to apply reforestation would help increase oxygen.
There are many ways to apply reforestation to reverse the harm that’s been don’t to the world. One way is to plant trees. There are some cities who have made vertical forests. They plant trees and plants that surround the building. Going paperless would help as well. Since technology has advanced, paper isn’t really needed as often. Recycling and buying recycled products will help as well. The more that people recycle there will be less demand for natural resources and trees. Reforestation will help to reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air.
Deforestation does have a huge negative impact on our world, but there are quite of bit of positive too. The positive effects of deforestation are that it does gives humans space to grow. With growth comes civilizations which means more jobs and revenue. Deforestations also gives us more food and resources to satisfy our needs. It means a more comfortable life for humans. The consequences of deforestation is not worth the temporary comfort that humans get from it.
Deforestation is a serious problem to maintain life on this planet. The decrease in oxygen could eventually mean the end to human kind. If we don’t do anything abo.
All workings, when appropriate, must be shown to substantiate your.docxsimonlbentley59018
All workings, when appropriate, must be shown to substantiate your answers.
Question 1 [14 marks]
Financial statement disclosures
You are the financial accountant for Superstore Ltd, and are in the process of preparing its financial statements for the year ended 30 June 2018. Whilst preparing the financial statements, you become aware of the following situations:
1. On 1 July 2017, the directors made a decision, using information obtained over the last couple of years, to revise the useful life of an item of manufacturing equipment. The equipment was acquired on 1 July 2015 for $800,000, and has been depreciated on a straight-line basis, based on an estimated useful life of 10 years and residual value of nil. Superstore Ltd uses the cost model for manufacturing equipment. The directors estimate that as at 1 July 2017, the equipment has a remaining useful life of 6 years and a residual value of nil. No depreciation has been recorded as yet for the year ended 30 June 2018 as the directors were unsure how to account for the change in the 2018 financial statements, and unsure whether the 2016 and 2017 financial statements will need to be revised as a result of the change.
2. In June 2018, the accounts payable officer discovered that an invoice for repairs to equipment, with an amount due of $20,000, incurred in June 2017, had not been paid or provided for in the 2017 financial statements. The invoice was paid on 12 July 2018. The repairs are deductible for tax purposes. The accountant responsible for preparing the company’s income tax returns will amend the 2017 tax return, and the company will receive a tax refund of $6,000 as a result (30% x $20,000). No journal entries have been done as yet in the accounting records of Superstore Ltd, as the directors are unsure how to account for this situation, and what period adjustments need to be made in.
3. Superstore Ltd holds shares in a listed public company, ABC Ltd, which are valued in the draft financial statements on 30 June 2018 at their market value on that date - $600,000. A major fall in the stock market occurred on 10 July 2018, and the value of Superstore’s shares in ABC Ltd declined to $250,000.
4. On 21 July 2018, you discovered a cheque dated 20 April 2018 of $32,000 authorised by the company’s previous accountant, Max. The payment was for the purchase of a swimming pool at Max’s house. The payment had been recorded in the accounting system as an advertising expense. You advise the directors of this fraudulent activity, and they will investigate.
Assume that each event is material.
Required:
i) State the appropriate accounting treatment for each situation. Provide explanations and references to relevant paragraphs in the accounting standards to support your answers. Where adjustments to Superstore Ltd’s financial statements are required, explain which financial statements need to be adjusted (ie. 2016, 2017, 2018 or 2019).
ii) Prepare any note disclosures and adjusting j.
All yellow highlight is missing answer, please answer all of t.docxsimonlbentley59018
All yellow highlight is missing answer, please answer all of the questions in detail. *** Please redo question#4 and answer them relate to the questions.
Thank you
Anna in the Tropics
Literature has the power to affect even the humblest of lives. Anna in the Tropics
presents the story of a family of Cuban cigar rollers whose lives in the 1920s Florida are
brightened up and disturbed at the same time by a stranger, a lector, who reads aloud about
the passions of Tolstoy and his heroine Anna Karenina. It is common practice for employees
at the factory run by this Cuban family to be entertained by as they carry out the mundane
chores at hand – those of rolling of cigars and sorting tobacco leaves. But as those in the
factory begin to get caught up in Tolstoy’s classic, willingly or not, the book begins to work
subtle and profound changes in their emotional lives. This essay will analyze the themes
covered in Anna in the Tropics, even as it seeks to explore the various ways in which the
play’s characters are affected as the lector reads to them – along with their fellow workers, to
educate and stimulate their minds in the course of the doldrums of their repetitive tasks.
One of the very first things to note in this story is how certain tensions between old
traditions and new ways are reflected. The factory workers, for instance, are threatened by
new, mechanical cigar rolling machines because they themselves roll cigars by hand, which is
the traditional way (Cruz 19). It is not just the workers whose future is uncertain, however.
Even the very tradition of the lector, who reads out loud to the cigar rollers so that any tedium
in the factory may be broken, while at the same time facilitating the ease of passing time, is at
risk (Cruz 8). Since listening to the lector is often the closest thing to a formal education that
cigar-rollers might experience, the ending of this tradition, in particular, could signify the
demise of an informal method of learning (Aiello).
The significance of the lector is not only about giving factory workers some
semblance of an informal education, however, but it is also reflective of the theme of Cuban
heritage that is present throughout the play. The Cuban culture and traditions comprise a key
theme because first, the play is set within the Cuban American community which is living in
Ybor City in Tampa, Florida (Cruz 2). Second, it is apparent that Cuban Americans prefer to
stay within their own cultural community whenever they can help it, which explains how they
have been able to keep their old traditions. Their cigar-rolling factory, for instance, is not run
in the same fashion that American companies are, what with a lector being availed to
entertain the workers – as demanded by Cuban traditions (Cruz 9). The characters in this
story are defined and destroyed against the standard of Cuban heritage.
As the play begins, the previous lector has jus.
All models are wrong. Some models are useful.—George E. P. B.docxsimonlbentley59018
All models are wrong. Some models are useful.
—George E. P. Box (1919–2013)
Statistician
Describing and explaining social phenomena is a complex task. Box’s quote speaks to the point that it is a near impossible undertaking to fully explain such systems—physical or social—using a set of models. Yet even though these models contain some error, the models nevertheless assist with illuminating how the world works and advancing social change.
The competent quantitative researcher understands the balance between making statements related to theoretical understanding of relationships and recognizing that our social systems are of such complexity that we will always have some error. The key, for the rigorous researcher, is recognizing and mitigating the error as much as possible.
As a graduate student and consumer of research, you must recognize the error that might be present within your research and the research of others.
To prepare for this Discussion:
Use the Walden Library Course Guide and Assignment Help found in this week’s Learning Resources to search for and select a quantitative article that interests you and that has social change implications.
As you read the article, reflect on George Box’s quote in the introduction for this Discussion.
For additional support, review the
Skill Builder: Independent and Dependent Variables
, which you can find by navigating back to your Blackboard Course Home Page. From there, locate the Skill Builder link in the left navigation pane.
By Day 3
Post a very brief description (1–3 sentences) of the article you found and address the following:
1. Describe how you think the research in the article is useful (e.g., what population is it helping? What problem is it solving?).
2. Using Y=
f
(X) +E notation, identify the independent and dependent variables.
3. How might the research models presented be wrong? What types of error might be present in the reported research?
Frankfort-Nachmias, C., & Leon-Guerrero, A. (2018).
Social statistics for a diverse society
(8th ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
· Chapter 1, “The What and the Why of Statistics” (pp. 1–21)
Wagner, W. E. (2016).
Using IBM® SPSS® statistics for research methods and social science statistics
(6th ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
· Chapter 1, “Overview”
Dietz, T., & Kalof, L. (2009).
Introduction to social statistics: The logic of statistical reasoning
. West Sussex, United Kingdom: Wiley-Blackwell.
Introduction to Social Statistics: The Logic of Statistical Reasoning, 1st Edition by Dietz, T.; Kalof, L. Copyright 2009 by John Wiley & Sons - Books. Reprinted by permission of John Wiley & Sons - Books via the Copyright Clearance Center.
·
Chapter 1, “An Introduction to Quantitative Analysis” (pp. 1–31)
Dietz, T., & Kalof, L. (2009).
Introduction to social statistics: The logic of statistical reasoning
. West Sussex, United Kingdom: Wiley-Blackwell.
Introdu.
allclasses-frame.htmlAll ClassesAIBoardPlacementRandomModeRotationShapeShapeStreamTetris5044
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extends Application
The main application class; for internal use only.
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ALL WORK MUST BE ORIGINAL, CITED, IN APA FORMAT & WILL BE SUBMITTED .docxsimonlbentley59018
ALL WORK MUST BE ORIGINAL, CITED, IN APA FORMAT & WILL BE SUBMITTED TO TURN-IT-IN. THIS IS A DISCUSSION POST. DUE DATE IS SUNDAY, 06/21/22 @ 2PM EASTERN STANDARD TIME.
Discussion Question #2:
If you had the authority, what steps would you take to secure America's digital infrastructure?
.
ALL WORK MUST BE ORIGINAL, CITED IN APA FORMAT AND WILL BE SUBMITTED.docxsimonlbentley59018
ALL WORK MUST BE ORIGINAL, CITED IN APA FORMAT AND WILL BE SUBMITTED TO TURN IT IN. MINIMUM WORD COUNT IS 1500 NOT INCLUDING THE TITLE PAGE. DUE DATE IS MONDAY 06/22/20 @ 12 NOON EASTERN STANDARD TIME.
Assignment:
1. The first sentence of Chapter 2 reads, “The saying that ‘people receive the kind of policing they deserve” ignores the role power plays in the kind, quality, and distribution of police service.” Discuss what this sentence means in the context of contemporary policing in the United States.
2. Beginning in 1929, August Vollmer, as head of the National Commission on Law Observance and Enforcement, established 10 principles vital in reforming the police. Discuss the importance of the principles in providing the underpinnings for modern policing.
3. Explain how technology has affected communities of interest in the United States.
4. Explain the contributions of the Chicago School in studies of the community.
.
All Wet! Legacy of Juniper Utility has residents stewingBy Eri.docxsimonlbentley59018
All Wet!
Legacy of Juniper Utility has residents stewing
By Erin Foote Marlowe
·
·
Last Friday, a collection of men and women sat in Marion Palmateer's plush Southeast Bend living room and told a story of frustration, talking over one another and becoming increasingly angry about their understanding of the legacy of Juniper Utility and what it means to them.
These folks who gathered on Palmateer's soft white couch and chairs consider themselves the modern-day victims in the more- than-a-decade-old saga of Juniper Utility Co., a water service provider formerly owned by housing developer Jan Ward in Southeast Bend. In 2002, it was condemned by Bend for what the city said was risk of catastrophic failure.
Money and "authority" are at the core of the story now for this group, as opposed to the low water pressures of a decade ago—a problem that became so egregious that, by 2001, it became a challenge to take a shower or fill a washing machine. Water lines routinely broke down.
The people in Palmateer's living room, "a loose collection of individuals," as they call themselves, are residents of neighborhoods formerly served by Juniper Utility, including Timber Ridge, Mountain High, Tillicum Village and Nottingham Square. They are frustrated with a history they felt they had no control over but is now costing them in water bills they believe will cost them thousands more per year than they ever expected.
In 2004, homeowners association representatives from their neighborhoods signed an agreement with the city that said the owners of the roughly 700 homes of the neighborhoods would pay 100 percent of the costs associated with providing water to the neighborhoods, including making improvements to the system.
But this group of residents feels the agreement wasn't in their best interest and they had no say in the decision. An HOA board member at the time said a ballot was not sent out to homeowners for approval and, because there was no vote of homeowners, these frustrated residents believe this 2004 agreement could be illegal. Further underscoring the issue, it appears the agreement was never recorded with the county clerk's office. So, when these new people bought houses in these neighborhoods, the tab for paying to upgrade the water system didn't show up in their title searches.
"Think of the banks that lent against it," said Dan Kehoe, a resident of Mountain High who has taken a lead role in challenging the agreements between the HOAs and the city. "That's called bank fraud and people go to jail for it."
But although frustrations over this agreement are evidently fresh for these residents, it would appear that the issue should be moot because in 2011 the HOAs and the city reached a new agreement—one that should reduce costs for residents.
"We moved them from a bad agreement to a good agreement," said city of Bend Finance Director Sonia Andrews. "From something that would cost them a lot to something that would be more reasonable."
Each homeowne.
All three of the Aristotle, Hobbes, and Douglass readings discussed .docxsimonlbentley59018
All three of the Aristotle, Hobbes, and Douglass readings discussed power in different ways. How is power related to justice? How should it be shifted in order to better serve all citizens? Please reflect on this idea of power and refer to at least two of the three philosophers listed.
Note: You should write enough to make your point, but can aim form 6-8 sentences or so (but there is no minimum or limit).
.
All rights reserved. No part of this report, including t.docxsimonlbentley59018
All rights reserved. No part of this report, including
the trends presented in this report, may be
reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
means whatsoever (including presentations, short
summaries, blog posts, printed magazines, use
of images in social media posts) without express
written permission from the author, except in the
case of brief quotations (50 words maximum and
for a maximum of 2 quotations) embodied in critical
articles and reviews, and with clear reference to
the original source, including a link to the original
source at http://eventmb.com/Event-Trends-2018.
Please refer all pertinent questions to the publisher.
COPYRIGHT
TABLE OF
CONTENTS
:: 2 COPYRIGHT
5 INTRODUCTION
7 MACRO TRENDS AFFECTING THE EVENT INDUSTRY. A FORECAST.
8 10 Trends in EVENTTECH
Julius Solaris
23 10 Trends in VENUES
Pádraic Gilligan
35 10 Trends in EVENT MARKETING AND SOCIAL MEDIA
Becki Cross
54 10 Trends in DESTINATIONS
Julius Solaris and Pádraic Gilligan
65 10 Trends in EVENT EXPERIENCE
Roger Haskett
80 10 Trends in EVENT DECOR AND STYLING
Kate Patay, CPCE
91 10 Trends in DESTINATION MANAGEMENT COMPANIES (DMCS)
Cindy Y. Lo, DMCP
102 ABOUT THE AUTHORS
105 CMP CREDITS
105 CREDITS AND THANKS
105 DISCLAIMER
AD
http://eventmb.com/2A6WKga
The event industry is navigating through the strongest wave of change of
the past 10 years. Never before has this industry experienced this level
of transformation in so many aspects of the event planning process.
Attendees, suppliers and event planners have to deal with ‘new’ and
‘different’ on many levels.
As a segue from last year’s report, we are again looking at the five major
areas impacted by this change:
G TECHNOLOGY
G EVENT MARKETING
G VENUES
G DESTINATIONS
G EVENT DESIGN
We are also looking at two new categories of trends:
G EVENT STYLING
G DESTINATION MANAGEMENT COMPANIES
(DMCS)
The spend for these items represent a massive input for the industry and we
feel times are mature enough to analyze developments on a yearly basis.
:: INTRODUCTION
10 EVENT
TRENDS FOR
2018
Julius Solaris
10 Event Trends for 2018
:: 5
AD
http://eventmb.com/2iVmZfW
MACRO TRENDS AFFECTING THE
EVENT INDUSTRY. A FORECAST.
There are common themes you will find in the following categories of
trends. We refer to these as macro trends. They are inherent to the
economic, political, social and technological developments happening
around us. Here are the most significant affecting the event industry:
G Sexual Harassment. With the explosion worldwide of the #metoo
movement and the very public charges against many celebrities,
politicians and people of influence, it seems it is finally time for the event
industry to reflect on sexual harassment. Many reports have popped up
of events being at the ideal stage for harassment or violence to happen.
As a result there is increased pressure to step up the measures to protect
attendees against perpetrators. A mo.
All PrinciplesEvidence on Persuasion Principles This provides som.docxsimonlbentley59018
All PrinciplesEvidence on Persuasion Principles: This provides some guidance how much confidence you can place on the principles Analyzed by J. Scott Armstrong on December 8, 2010; re-analyzed by Elliot Tusk on May 26, 2011Common senseReceived wisdomNo evidenceExpert opinionNon-experimental evidenceSingle experimentSome experimental evidenceMuch experimental evidenceCommentsSUMNumberPrinciple1INFORMATION1.1Benefits1.1.1Describe specific, meaningful benefits111.1.2Communicate a Unique Selling Principle (USP)1111.2News1.2.1Provide news, but only if it is real111.2.2If real news is complex, use still media11.3Product or service1.3.1Provide product information that customers need11.3.2Provide choices11.3.3When there are many substantive, multi-dimensional options, organize them and provide guidance11.3.4Make the recommended choice the default choice11.3.5Inform committed customers that they can delete features, rather than add them11.3.6To reduce customer risk, use a product-satisfaction guarantee11.4Price1.4.1State prices in terms that are meaningful and easy to understand111.4.2Use round prices111.4.3Show the price to be a good value against a reference price11.4.4If quality is not a key selling point, consider advertising price reductions11.4.5Consider partitioned prices when the add-on prices seem fair and small relative to the base price11.4.6To retain customers, consider linking payments to consumption11.4.7Consider separating payments from benefits- if the payments are completed before the benefits end11.4.8State that the price can be prepaid if it might reduce uncertainty for consumers111.4.9Use high costs to justify high prices11.4.10When quality is high, do not emphasize price11.4.11Use high prices to connote high quality111.4.12For inexpensive products, state price discounts as percentage saved; for expensive products, state price discounts as dollars saved- or present both11.4.13Minimize price information for new products11.4.14Consider bundling prices of features or complementary products or services if they are desirable for nearly all customers11.4.15Advertise multi-unit purchases for frequently purchased low-involvement products if it is also in the consumers' interest11.5Distribution1.5.1Include information on when, where and how to buy the product111.5.2Feature a sales channel when it is impressive11.5.3Use the package to enhance the product11.5.4If a product is desirable, specify delivery dates rather than waiting times11.5.5Tell customers they can achieve benefits over a long time period if you want to reduce the use of an offer- and vice versa12INFLUENCE2.1Reasons2.1.1Provide a reason12.1.2For high-involvement products, the reasons should be strong12.2Social Proof2.2.1Show that the product is widely used12.2.2Focus on individuals similar to the target market112.3Scarcity2.3.1State that an attractive product is scarce when it is true12.3.2Restrict sales of the product112.4Attribution2.4.1Attribute favorable behavior and traits.
All papers may be subject to submission for textual similarity revie.docxsimonlbentley59018
All papers may be subject to submission for textual similarity review to Turnitin.com for the detection of plagiarism
those are the two quistions
What are the disadvantages of Henrietta in particular and her colleagues, pursuing careers in astronomy during this time period? Choose one scene and describe how character relationships and the outcome of the play would change if the central characters were male instead of female.
--
I don't have the book , i need someone who can have it and answer the two questions
silent sky by lauren gunderson
answer 2 questions in 4 pages double space
.
All of us live near some major industry. Describe the history of an .docxsimonlbentley59018
All of us live near some major industry. Describe the history of an industry in the city you live in or a nearby city.
How has the industry changed over the last fifty years?
What cultural changes have occurred to drive those changes?
What do you see as the future of industry in the city?
.
All of Us Research Program—Protocol v1.12 IRB Approval Dat.docxsimonlbentley59018
All of Us Research Program—Protocol v1.12
IRB Approval Date: 23 October 2019
Protocol Title All of Us Research Program 1
Principal Investigator(s) Joshua Denny, M.D., M.S.
Vanderbilt University Medical Center
+1 615 936-5033
Sponsor National Institutes of Health (NIH)
Primary Contact John Wilbanks
Sage Bionetworks
+1 617 838-6333
Protocol Version Core Protocol v.1.12 pre02
Date 16 October 2019
IRB reference AoU IRB Protocol # 2017-05
IRB Approval date v1.5: May 20, 2017
v1.6: Feb 13, 2018
v1.7: Mar 28, 2018
v1.8: Jul 11, 2018
v1.9 Oct 19, 2018
v1.10 Mar 05, 2019
v1.11 Aug 12, 2019
v1.12 Oct 23, 2019
1 Precision Medicine Initiative, PMI, All of Us, the All of Us logo, and “The Future of Health Begins
with You” are service marks of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
All of Us Research Program—Protocol v1.11 pre02
IRB Approval Date
2
Program Leadership and Governance
Leadership
The All of Us Research Program (AoURP) is a large collaborative initiative sponsored by the
National Institutes of Health (NIH). The research program functions as a consortium of awardees
from multiple institutions. Its governance involves representation from each awardee and
participant representatives. The consortium also includes the program director and project
scientists/specialists from NIH. Each awardee has responsibilities commensurate with expertise. See
Table 0–1: Program Unit Awardees for a list of NIH-funded awardees and contact Principal
Investigators (PIs).
Dr. Joshua Denny of Vanderbilt University Medical Center serves as the Principal Investigator on
behalf of the consortium.
Governance
The Steering Committee (SC) is the primary governing body of AoURP. The SC recommends
strategic directions for the program and oversees planning, coordination, and implementation of the
program’s overall operations. Its 50 voting members include PIs from each awardee as designated
in the notice of award; representation from NIH, comprising of the deputy director and chief
officers of AoURP; representation from community partners and participants (see section 3.1); and
additional representation as needed to ensure balanced representation of stakeholders. The
governance also includes an Executive Committee (EC) which is a small governing body composed
of 17 members, that ensures the program is effectively meeting its objectives and mission. The EC
proposes solutions to challenges and provides the Director with strategies, options, and information
to aid in programmatic decisions. The Director has discretion to delegate specific decisions to the
EC. Membership of the EC is determined by the Director and reflects the awardees within the
consortium with balanced interests to ensure effective deliberation.
The Steering Committee may appr.
All participants must read the following article ATTACHED Agwu.docxsimonlbentley59018
All participants must read the following article: ATTACHED
* Agwu, E. & Ohaegbu, V.A. (2015). Strategic management of the benefits and challenges of HR outsourcing in effective organizational management. Journal of Business Studies Quarterly, 7, 2, 85-108. Retrieved from http://jbsq.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/December_2015_6.pdf
Participants will be assigned to groups.
Within each group, members will assume the role of a VP of Human Resources. In this role, list both the organizational opportunities and challenges of utilizing some level of outsourcing of at least 2 HR processes.
* Your list should include a minimum of three (3) opportunities and challenges for each process, especially as they pertain to driving enterprise goals, and organizational culture.
* Provide supporting statements from the article, our texts and other readings/resources, for your positions.
Reporting and Valuation for
Undergraduates
1
Below is a 2-part question. Please create a word document and/or spreadsheet to answer the following
prompts. Upload your response according to the directions.
Part I: Reporting and Financial Statement Analysis
1. Given the following income statements, calculate the estimated cash flow for years 20x1 and 20x2.
2. Given the following income statements, calculate the interest coverage (time interest earned) ratio
for years 20x1 and 20x2.
3. Given the following income statements, calculate the net profit margin ratio for years 20x1 and
20x2.
Income Statement for years 20x1 and 20x2
20x1 20x2
Sales $5,450 $5,000
Operating Costs excluding Depreciation and Amortization 4,775 4,250
EBITDA 675 750
Depreciation and Amortization 40 180
EBIT $635 $570
Interest Expense 62 200
EBT $573 $370
Taxes (40%) 229 148
NI $344 $222
4. Based solely on the following balance sheets, calculate the current ratio for years 20x1 and 20x2?
5. Based solely on the following balance sheets, calculate the debt ratio for years 20x1 and 20x2.
Balance Sheet ending December 31 for years 20x1 and 20x2
20x1 20x2
Assets:
Cash $275 $250
Short Term Investments 55 50
Accounts Receivable 375 250
Inventories 825 750
Total Current Assets $1,530 $1,300
Net Plant and Equipment 2,925 2,750
Total Assets $4,455 $4,050
Liabilities:
Notes Payable $192 $100
Accounts Payable 580 100
Miscellaneous Payables 245 250
Total Current Liabilities $1,017 $450
Long-Term Debt 550 500
Total Liabilities $1,567 $950
Reporting and Valuation for
Undergraduates
2
Common Stock 2154 2,600
Retained Earnings 734 500
Less Treasury Stock 46 0
Total Shareholder Equity $2,888 $3,100
Liabilities and Shareholder Equity $4,455 $4,050
6. Based on both the income statements and balance sheets, calculate the return on assets (return on
investment) ratios for years 20x1 and 20x2.
7. Based on both the income statements and balance sheets, calculate the total asset turnover ratio
for years 20x1 and 20x2. .
ALL of the requirements are contained in the attached document. T.docxsimonlbentley59018
ALL
of the requirements are contained in the attached document. The Veronica case study is attached also.
To prepare:
Review "Working With Survivors of Human Trafficking: The Case of Veronica." Think about how one might become an ally to victims of human trafficking . Then go to a website that addresses human trafficking either internationally or domestically.
Post
a brief description of the website you visited (Websites contained below). Explain how you might support Veronica and other human trafficking victims incorporating the information you have found. Explain how you can begin to increase your awareness of this issue and teach others about human trafficking victims. Describe opportunities to get involved and become an ally to those who have been trafficked. Identify steps you can take to begin to support this group.
.
All five honorees cared greatly about the success of Capella lea.docxsimonlbentley59018
All five honorees cared greatly about the success of Capella learners and most were heavily involved in bettering their communities and others. Dr. Ford in particular fulfilled this desire by helping others to help themselves. Describe how you plan to use your education to better your community or help others to help themselves, and how receiving this scholarship will help you in doing so? 250-750 word essay
All of our honorees brought great personal and professional successes to their work environment. What would you consider one of your greatest professional successes? How did your success benefit your organization and its people? 250- 750 word essay
Respond to Tawnya and Noeme post
Creating the ideal marketing plan requires many steps and gathering data. “Knowing the needs of the customer and having a clearly articulated mission will help to target the message to an audience who will be most interested in the service that is being provided” (Sciarra, Lynch, Adams, & Dorsey (2016) p. 340). To find these needs, a needs assessment can be done. After gathering the results, a plan can start to form. Creating a Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, and Threats chart (SWOT) will give you a broader view on how to target your population.
“The first step in conducting SWOT analysis is to identify your stakeholders and data that has already been collected” (Sciarra, (2016) p. 340). Your stakeholders will guide you into the right direction for a plan of action. Looking at the type of population including the children, families, and staff members will give you the data to create your SWOT. Moving forward with the data, now to breakdown your SWOT data analysis and create a marketing plan. Strengths; reviewing this section will give you an objective overview of any changes needing to be made. Strengths can consist of staff, location, cliental, and possibly opportunities. If there are areas of weakness this gives us the ability to make changes. Moving forward with those changes leads us to Weakness, do we see a pattern of areas? What can we do to upgrade or change these areas we have identified? Moving on next to Opportunities, what options do we have beyond what we have now? Is there room for growth both financially and structurally? Finally, Threats to evaluate. Are we looking at opening a facility next door to two other highly rated centers that may cause us competition and difficulty building a successful business? Is there a possibility that the area is losing population and economic strength? Gathering the data and taking a step back and reviewing all the pro’s and con’s will give us a bigger picture when deciding which way to market our audience.
Taking a look at the strengths from all the gathered data will give you a good direction to follow for reaching protentional public relations opportunities. For an example, location, your childcare facility has a prime location in your town and your coming up on your grand opening soon. Planning an.
All of the instructions will be given to you in a document. One docu.docxsimonlbentley59018
All of the instructions will be given to you in a document. One document is the guidelines and the other is a sample to help guide you (and to make it a little more easier). For the background information summary, the section titled Significant assessment findings during days of care can be placed in a table. Also the medications can be placed in a table as well. I will also attach a NANDA Nursing Diagnosis to help for the "Risk for".
.
Francesca Gottschalk - How can education support child empowerment.pptxEduSkills OECD
Francesca Gottschalk from the OECD’s Centre for Educational Research and Innovation presents at the Ask an Expert Webinar: How can education support child empowerment?
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...Levi Shapiro
Letter from the Congress of the United States regarding Anti-Semitism sent June 3rd to MIT President Sally Kornbluth, MIT Corp Chair, Mark Gorenberg
Dear Dr. Kornbluth and Mr. Gorenberg,
The US House of Representatives is deeply concerned by ongoing and pervasive acts of antisemitic
harassment and intimidation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Failing to act decisively to ensure a safe learning environment for all students would be a grave dereliction of your responsibilities as President of MIT and Chair of the MIT Corporation.
This Congress will not stand idly by and allow an environment hostile to Jewish students to persist. The House believes that your institution is in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, and the inability or
unwillingness to rectify this violation through action requires accountability.
Postsecondary education is a unique opportunity for students to learn and have their ideas and beliefs challenged. However, universities receiving hundreds of millions of federal funds annually have denied
students that opportunity and have been hijacked to become venues for the promotion of terrorism, antisemitic harassment and intimidation, unlawful encampments, and in some cases, assaults and riots.
The House of Representatives will not countenance the use of federal funds to indoctrinate students into hateful, antisemitic, anti-American supporters of terrorism. Investigations into campus antisemitism by the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Ways and Means have been expanded into a Congress-wide probe across all relevant jurisdictions to address this national crisis. The undersigned Committees will conduct oversight into the use of federal funds at MIT and its learning environment under authorities granted to each Committee.
• The Committee on Education and the Workforce has been investigating your institution since December 7, 2023. The Committee has broad jurisdiction over postsecondary education, including its compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, campus safety concerns over disruptions to the learning environment, and the awarding of federal student aid under the Higher Education Act.
• The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is investigating the sources of funding and other support flowing to groups espousing pro-Hamas propaganda and engaged in antisemitic harassment and intimidation of students. The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is the principal oversight committee of the US House of Representatives and has broad authority to investigate “any matter” at “any time” under House Rule X.
• The Committee on Ways and Means has been investigating several universities since November 15, 2023, when the Committee held a hearing entitled From Ivory Towers to Dark Corners: Investigating the Nexus Between Antisemitism, Tax-Exempt Universities, and Terror Financing. The Committee followed the hearing with letters to those institutions on January 10, 202
Biological screening of herbal drugs: Introduction and Need for
Phyto-Pharmacological Screening, New Strategies for evaluating
Natural Products, In vitro evaluation techniques for Antioxidants, Antimicrobial and Anticancer drugs. In vivo evaluation techniques
for Anti-inflammatory, Antiulcer, Anticancer, Wound healing, Antidiabetic, Hepatoprotective, Cardio protective, Diuretics and
Antifertility, Toxicity studies as per OECD guidelines
The Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdfkaushalkr1407
The Roman Empire, a vast and enduring power, stands as one of history's most remarkable civilizations, leaving an indelible imprint on the world. It emerged from the Roman Republic, transitioning into an imperial powerhouse under the leadership of Augustus Caesar in 27 BCE. This transformation marked the beginning of an era defined by unprecedented territorial expansion, architectural marvels, and profound cultural influence.
The empire's roots lie in the city of Rome, founded, according to legend, by Romulus in 753 BCE. Over centuries, Rome evolved from a small settlement to a formidable republic, characterized by a complex political system with elected officials and checks on power. However, internal strife, class conflicts, and military ambitions paved the way for the end of the Republic. Julius Caesar’s dictatorship and subsequent assassination in 44 BCE created a power vacuum, leading to a civil war. Octavian, later Augustus, emerged victorious, heralding the Roman Empire’s birth.
Under Augustus, the empire experienced the Pax Romana, a 200-year period of relative peace and stability. Augustus reformed the military, established efficient administrative systems, and initiated grand construction projects. The empire's borders expanded, encompassing territories from Britain to Egypt and from Spain to the Euphrates. Roman legions, renowned for their discipline and engineering prowess, secured and maintained these vast territories, building roads, fortifications, and cities that facilitated control and integration.
The Roman Empire’s society was hierarchical, with a rigid class system. At the top were the patricians, wealthy elites who held significant political power. Below them were the plebeians, free citizens with limited political influence, and the vast numbers of slaves who formed the backbone of the economy. The family unit was central, governed by the paterfamilias, the male head who held absolute authority.
Culturally, the Romans were eclectic, absorbing and adapting elements from the civilizations they encountered, particularly the Greeks. Roman art, literature, and philosophy reflected this synthesis, creating a rich cultural tapestry. Latin, the Roman language, became the lingua franca of the Western world, influencing numerous modern languages.
Roman architecture and engineering achievements were monumental. They perfected the arch, vault, and dome, constructing enduring structures like the Colosseum, Pantheon, and aqueducts. These engineering marvels not only showcased Roman ingenuity but also served practical purposes, from public entertainment to water supply.
Palestine last event orientationfvgnh .pptxRaedMohamed3
An EFL lesson about the current events in Palestine. It is intended to be for intermediate students who wish to increase their listening skills through a short lesson in power point.
Al AlawiApplications of hydrogen in industryHydrogen’s use in .docx
1. Al Alawi
Applications of hydrogen in industry
Hydrogen’s use in industry can be divided into two main
categories: (1) as a reactant in hydrogenation reactions and
chemical processes, (2) as fuel and energy carrier. As a
reactant, hydrogen is used to produce compounds with lower
molecular weight, saturate compounds and crack heavy
hydrocarbons into lighter hydrocarbons. In majority of these
applications hydrogenation takes place to insert hydrogen atoms
and saturate molecule or to cleave a molecule and remove
heterogeneous atoms such as sulfur and nitrogen. Among the
major uses of hydrogen in chemical industries, ammonia
production accounts for almost 50%, petroleum processing
accounts for 37%, and methanol production accounts for 8% [1-
3].
In petroleum industry, hydrogen is used to react with
hydrocarbons in hydroprocessing and hydrocracking processes.
In hydroprocessing, hydrogen is used to hydro-genate sulfur and
nitrogen compounds (for example from crude oil) and release
them as hydrogen sulfide (H2S) and ammonia (NH3). In
hydrocracking process, heavy hydrocarbons are cracked into
lighter hydrocarbons to produce refined fuels with smaller
molecules and higher H/C ratios [3].
Hydrogen is also used for production of methanol. Methanol is a
feedstock for manufacturing of other chemicals and materials
such as formaldehyde, plastics, plywood, paints, and textiles. In
methanol production plants, hydrogen and carbon monoxide are
reacted over a catalyst at a high pressure and temperature.
Other application of hydrogen in chemical and petrochemical
industries include production of butyraldehyde from propylene,
production of acetic acid from syngas, production of butanediol
and tetrahydrofuran from maleic anhydride, production of
hexamethylene diamine from adiponitrile, and production of
2. cyclohexane from benzene.
In food industry, large amount of hydrogen is used for
processing of vegetable oil and decreasing the degree of
unsaturation. In this process, an increase in melting point and
enhanced resistance to oxidation occur that enables preservation
for a longer period of time [3, 6].
Aerospace industry is the primary consumer of fuel hydrogen. A
mixture of liquid hydrogen and oxygen has been found to
release the highest amount of energy per unit weight of
propellant [6]. However, the cost of hydrogen liquefaction, and
difficulties associated with safely store and handling it in liquid
form have kept liquid hydrogen away from other fuel
applications such as in automobiles [3].
Fuel hydrogen is also used in fuel cells to power electrical
systems. In a fuel cell, hydrogen and oxygen from air are
combined and produce electricity and water.
Production of hydrogen
Industrial processes for production of hydrogen can be divided
into thermal such as hydrocarbons reforming, renewable liquid
and bio-oil processing, biomass, and coal gasification;
electrolytic such as water splitting; photolytic such as splitting
of water by sunlight through biological activity or photo-
catalytic materials.
Fossil fuels such as gasoline, coal, and methane (natural gas)
can be used to produce hydrogen in an industrial scale.
Hydrogen from fossil fuels can be produced through three basic
technologies: (1) steam reforming, (2) partial oxidation, and (3)
autothermal reforming. In these technologies, carbon monoxide
is produced with hydrogen as by-product which is subsequently
converted into carbon dioxide (CO2) via water-gas shift
reaction.
Steam reforming is the most widespread and least expensive
3. process for hydrogen production [7]. The most frequently used
raw materials for steam reforming process are natural gas
(methane) and light hydrocarbons such as propane, butane, and
methanol [4]. Steam reforming of hydrocarbons comprises two
stages. In the first stage, the hydrocarbon is mixed with steam
and fed in a catalytic reactor producing syngas (H2/CO gas
mixture). The reaction temperature inside the catalytic reactor is
achieved by addition of air to combust part of the hydrocarbon
feed. In the second stage cooled syngas is fed into CO catalytic
converter, where carbon monoxide is converted to carbon
dioxide and hydrogen [7]. Partial oxidation is a non-catalytic
process, in which the raw material is gasified in the presence of
oxygen and steam at 1300–1500 C and 3–8 MPa. The gasified
raw material can be methane, biogas, and heavy oil fractions of
crude oil [5]. Autothermal reforming is a combination of steam
reforming (endothermic) and partial oxidation (exothermic)
reactions. Autothermal reforming has the advantages of not
requiring external heat and being simpler and less expensive
than steam reforming [4].
Pressure-swing adsorption
Pressure swing adsorption (PSA) units are used to separate
mixture of various gasses such as N2, CO2, CO, H2O from
hydrogen and increase the purity of final hydrogen product. The
separation effect in PSA is based on differences in binding
forces of gasses to adsorbent materials.
Highly volatile components with low polarity, such as hydrogen
are practically non-absorbable as opposed to molecules such as
N2, CO, CO2, hydrocarbons and water vapor. Consequently,
these impurities can be adsorbed from a hydrogen-containing
stream and high purity hydrogen is recovered [8]. Some of the
key industrial applications of PSA include gas drying, solvent
vapor recovery, fractionation of air, production of hydrogen
from steam-methane reformer and petroleum refinery off gases,
separation of carbon dioxide and methane from landfill gas,
carbon monoxide-hydrogen separation, normal isoparaffin
separation, and alcohol dehydration. A PSA unit consists of
4. absorber vessels containing the adsorbent material, tail gas
drum, valve skid with interconnecting pipes, control valves and
instrumentation, and a unit control system. The pressure swing
adsorption process has two main steps: adsorption and
regeneration [8]. In adsorption, feed gas flows through the
absorber vessels in an upward direction and impurities such as
water, heavy hydrocarbons, light hydrocarbons, CO2, CO and
nitrogen are selectively adsorbed on the surface of the adsorbent
material. Highly pure hydrogen exits the absorber vessel at top.
After a defined time, the adsorption phase of this vessel stops
and regeneration starts. Another absorber takes over the task of
adsorption to ensure continuous hydrogen supply. Regeneration
starts at lower pressure to release the adsorbed gasses on the
adsorbent material and prepare it for another cycle of
adsorption.
The steps are performed in parallel in different vessels to
minimize hydrogen losses and maximize the recovery rate of the
PSA unit. Adsorbent materials for PSA units are selected from
very porous materials due to their large specific surface areas.
Typical adsorbents are activated carbon, silica gel, alumina,
resin and zeolite [8].
5. References
1. Meija, J., et al., Atomic weights of the elements 2013
(IUPAC Technical Report), in Pure and Applied Chemistry.
2016. p. 265.
2. Emsley, J., Nature's Building Blocks: An A-Z Guide to the
Elements. 2011: OUP Oxford, pp. 183-191.
3. Ramachandran, R. and R.K. Menon, An overview of
industrial uses of hydrogen. International Journal of Hydrogen
Energy, 1998. 23(7): p. 593-598.
4. Ullmann, F., et al., Ullmann's Encyclopedia of industrial
chemistry. 1995: VCH.
5. Billig, E. and D.R. Bryant, Oxo Process, in Kirk-Othmer
Encyclopedia of Chemical Technology. 2000, John Wiley &
Sons, Inc.
6. Kirk-Othmer Encyclopedia of Chemical Technology. 2005:
Wiley.
7. Cecere, D., E. Giacomazzi, and A. Ingenito, A review on
hydrogen industrial aerospace applications. International
Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2014. 39(20): p. 10731-10747.
8. Sircar, S. and T.C. Golden, Purification of Hydrogen by
Pressure Swing Adsorption. Separation Science and
Technology, 2000. 35(5): p. 667-687.
1
1
Smart Choices:
6. A Practical Guide to Making Better Life Decisions
Notes by Frumi Rachel Barr, MBA, Ph.D.
Author: John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, Howard Raiffa
Publisher: Broadway Books
Copyright year: 2002
ISBN: 0-7679-0886-4
Authors’ Bio: John S. Hammond is a management consultant
based in Lincoln, Massachusetts and
is known for helping his clients make tough choices. Ralph L.
Keeney is a professor at the
University of Southern California’s Marshall School of
Business and is especially known for his
work on making difficult tradeoffs. Dr. Howard Raiffa has been
a professor at Harvard and is a
pioneer in the development of decision analysis, negotiation
analysis and the theory of games.
Authors’ big thought: Decisions shape our experiences, from
choosing which job to accept, to
having the right car, to selecting a good accountant. How do we
know which is the smart one? How
can we be consistent and confident in our decisions? In this
award-wining bestseller, readers
learn how to approach all types of decisions with a simple set of
skills developed from professors
from Harvard, MIT, and the University of Southern California.
1. Making Smart Choices
How to think about your whole decision problem: a proactive
approach
7. • Our decisions shape our lives. Made consciously or
unconsciously, with good or bad
consequences, they represent the fundamental tool we use in
facing the opportunities, the
challenges and the uncertainties of life.
Making decisions is a fundamental life skill.
• Making good decisions is one of the most important
determinants of how well you meet
your responsibilities and achieve your personal and professional
goals. In short, the ability
to make smart decisions is a fundamental life skill.
• The need to make a difficult decision puts us at risk of
anxiety, confusion, doubt, error,
embarrassment or loss. Our discomfort often leads us to make
decisions too quickly, or too
slowly, or too arbitrarily.
2
You can learn to make better decisions.
• We don’t know how to make decisions well. Few of us ever
receive any training in it.
• The only way to really raise your odds of making a good
decision is to learn to use a good
decision-making process – one that gets you to the best solution
with a minimal loss of
trust, energy, money, and composure.
8. • An effective decision-making process fulfills these six
criteria:
o It focuses on what’s important
o It is logical and consistent
o It acknowledges both subjective and objective factors and
blends analytical with
intuitive thinking. It requires only as much information and
analysis as is necessary
to resolve a particular dilemma
o It encourages and guides the gathering of relevant information
and informed
opinion
o It is straightforward, reliable and easy to use, and flexible
Use the PrOACT approach to make smart choices.
• This book provides you with a straightforward proven
approach for making decisions. It
won’t make hard decisions easy. Hard decisions are hard
because they are complex, and no
one can make that complexity disappear.
• Even the most complex decisions can be analyzed and resolved
by considering the following
set of eight elements. The acronym for these PrOACT, serves as
a reminder that the best
approach to decision situations is a proactive one. Although this
method may not make a
decision easy, it will certainly make it easier.
There are eight keys to effective decision making:
• Work on the right decision problem.
• Specify your objectives.
• Create imaginative alternatives.
9. • Understand the consequences.
• Grapple with your tradeoffs.
• Clarify your uncertainties.
• Think hard about your risk tolerance.
• Consider linked decisions.
• The eight PrOACT elements provide a framework that can
profoundly redirect your
decision making, enriching your possibilities and increasing
your chance of finding a
satisfactory solution.
Start making your own smart choices now.
• A good decision increases the odds of success and at the same
time satisfies our very
human desire to control the forces that affect our lives.
• A couple of important tips that will help ensure that you get
the full benefit of the
authors’ approach are:
• First and foremost, always focus your thinking where it
matters most, cycle quickly
through the eight elements to gain a broad perspective of your
decision problem. Usually,
only one or two elements will emerge as the most critical for
the decision at hand.
3
• Try configuring your problem in various ways. Display it
graphically, as a table, diagram or
chart, for example. Restate it in several forms, using different
10. words, phrasings, and
emphasis. Describe your problem to others, asking for their
opinions and advice.
• Take control – create your own decision opportunities and be
proactive in your decision
making.
• Most important, be proactive in seeking decision opportunities
that advance your long-
range goals, your core values and beliefs; and the needs of your
family, community, and
employer. Take charge of your life by determining which
decision you’ll face and when you’ll
face them.
2. Problem
How to define your decision problem to solve the right problem
• You can make a well-considered, well-thought-out decision,
but if you started from the
wrong place – with the wrong decision problem, you won’t have
made the smart choice. The
way you state your problem frames your decision. It determines
the alternatives you
consider and the way you evaluate them. Posing the right
problem drives everything else.
• A good decision to a well-posed decision problem is almost
always a smarter choice than an
excellent solution to a poorly posed one.
Be creative about your problem definition.
• It’s easy to state the problem in the most obvious way, or the
way that first pops into your
11. mind, or in the way it’s always been stated in the past. To make
sure you get the problem
right, you need to get out of the box and think creatively.
Turn problems into opportunities.
• By stating your problem creatively, you can often transform it
into an opportunity, opening
up attractive and useful new opportunities.
• Every decision problem has a trigger – the initiating force
behind it. Most triggers come
from others (your boss) or from circumstances beyond your
control (new regulations
affecting your business). Because they are imposed on you from
the outside, you may not
like the resulting decision problems. Creating decision
situations for you is a great way to
create new opportunities, before a problem even arises.
Define the decision problem.
• Start by writing down your initial assessment of the basic
problem, then question it, test
it, hone it.
Ask what triggered this decision. Why am I even considering it?
• The trigger is a good place to start because it is your link to
the essential problem.
Question the constraints in your problem statement.
• Problem definitions usually include constraints that narrow the
range of alternatives you
consider. They put blinders on you, preventing you from seeing
the best options.
12. Identifying and challenging constraints can lead you to better
problem definitions and
better solutions.
Identify the essential elements of the problem.
• By breaking a problem down into its component pieces, you
can be sure that your problem
statement is focused on the right track.
4
Understand what other decisions impinge on or hinge on this
decision.
• Thinking through the context of a decision problem will help
keep you on the right track.
Establish a sufficient but workable scope for your problem
definition.
• An ideal solution for a problem that is too narrow could be a
poor solution for a more
broadly and accurately defined problem.
Gain fresh insights by asking others how they see the situation.
• Get some other perspectives to see your problem in a new
light, perhaps revealing new
opportunities or exposing unnecessary, self-imposed
constraints.
Reexamine your problem definition as you go.
• Defining your decision problems is in itself a decision
problem, the resolution of which will
13. profoundly influence your ultimate choice. It’s important not
only to consider several
possible problem definitions in the beginning, but also to pause
along the way and
reexamine the definition you’ve chosen.
• Chances to redefine your problem are opportunities that often
lead to better decisions.
Maintain your perspective.
• Crafting a good definition takes time; don’t expect to get it
right in one sitting. But in 99
out of 100 cases, spending extra time defining the problem pays
off handsomely in the
end.
• Expansive thinking generates better problem definitions, and
better definitions open up a
broader range of creative solutions.
3. Objectives
How to clarify what you're really trying to achieve with your
decision
• Pause and think about your objectives. What do you really
want? What do you really need?
What are your hopes? Your goals? Answering these questions
honestly, clearly, and fully
puts you on track to making the smart choice.
• Objectives form the basis for evaluating the alternatives open
to you. They are your
decision criteria. A full set of objectives can help you think of
new and better
14. alternatives, looking beyond the immediately apparent choices.
Let your objectives be your guide.
• Sometimes, the process of thinking through and writing out
your objectives can guide you
straight to the smart choice. The objectives you set will help
guide your entire decision-
making process, from defining alternatives at the outset, to
analyzing those alternatives,
to justifying the choice you ultimately make.
• Objectives help you determine what information to seek.
• Objectives can help you explain your choices to others.
• Objectives determine a decision’s importance and,
consequently, how much time and effort
it deserves.
Watch out for these pitfalls.
• Often, decision makers take too narrow a focus. First, most
people spend too little time
and effort on the task of specifying objectives. Second, getting
it isn’t easy. While you
might think you know what you want, your real desires might
actually be submerged.
5
• For important decisions, only deep soul searching will reveal
what really matters to you.
The more relentlessly you probe beneath the surface of
“obvious” objectives, the better
the decisions you’ll ultimately make.
15. Master the art of identifying objectives.
• Identifying objectives is an art, but it’s an art you can practice
systematically. Follow
these five steps:
• Step 1: Write down all the concerns you hope to address
through your decisions. Flesh out
your list by trying some of these techniques:
o Compose a wish list.
o Think of the worst possible outcome.
o Consider the decisions impact on others.
o Ask people who have faced similar situations what they
considered when making
their decision.
o Consider a great, even if unfeasible, alternative.
o Consider a terrible alternative.
o Think about how you would explain your decisions to
someone else.
o When facing a join or group decision, one involving family or
colleagues, first have
each person follow the above suggestions individually.
• Step 2: Convert your concerns into succinct objectives such as
a short phrase consisting
of a verb and an object (Minimize costs).
• Step 3: Separate ends from means to establish your
fundamental objectives.
• The best way to do this is to follow the advice of the common
Japanese saying” You
don’t really understand something until you ask five
times”why?’” Asking “Why?” will
16. lead you to what you really care about – your fundamental
objectives, as opposed to
your means objectives. Means objectives represent way stations
in the progress
toward a fundamental objective, the point at which you can say
“I want this for its own
sake. It is a fundamental reason for my interest in this
decision.” Fundamental
objectives constitute the broadest objectives directly influenced
by your decision
alternatives.
• Your fundamental objectives depend on your decision
problem. A means objective in one
decision problem may be a fundamental objective in another.
• Separating means and fundamental objectives is critical
because both kinds of
objectives play important but different roles in the decision
making process.
o Each means objective can serve as a stimulus for generating
alternatives and
can deepen your understanding of your decision problem.
o Only fundamental objectives should be used to evaluate and
compare
alternatives.
• Step 4: Clarify what you mean by each objective.
• Clarification will lead to better understanding, which in turn
will l help you state the
objective more precisely and see more clearly how to reach it.
In addition, when it
comes time to choose, you’ll be better prepared to appraise
17. whether or not the
objective is being met. For many objectives, the bottom line
will be obvious.
• Step 5: Test your objectives to see if they capture your
interests.
6
• Use your list to evaluate several potential alternatives, asking
yourself if you would be
comfortable living with the resulting choices. See if your
objectives would help you
explain a prospective decision to someone else.
Practical advice for nailing down your objectives
• You will more readily identify your fundamental objectives if
you keep the following
considerations in mind.
o Objectives are personal
o Different objectives will suit different decision problems
o Objectives should not be limited by the availability of or ease
of access to them
o Unless circumstances change markedly, well thought-out
fundamental objectives
for similar problems should remain relatively stable over time
o If a prospective decision sits uncomfortably in your mind, you
may have overlooked
an important objective.
For joint or group discussion
18. • First have each individual draw up a list separately, and then
combine them.
• Phrase each concern as a true objective, using a verb and an
object
• Ask “Why?” for each objective
• Ask “What do we really mean by this?
4. Alternatives
How to make smarter choices by creating better alternatives to
choose from
• Alternatives represent the range of potential choices you’ll
have for pursuing your
objectives. Two important points should be kept in mind. First,
you can never choose an
alternative you haven’t considered. Second, No matter how
many alternatives you have,
your chosen alternative can be no better than the best of the lot.
Thus the payoff from
seeking good, new, creative alternatives can be extremely high.
Don't box yourself in with limited alternatives.
• Unfortunately, people don’t tend to think a lot about their
decision alternatives. Too many
decisions, as a result, are made from an overly narrow or poorly
constructed set of
alternatives.
• One of the most common pitfalls is business as usual. Because
many decision problems are
similar to others, choosing the same alternative beckons as the
easy course.
• Sometimes so-called new alternatives represent nothing more
19. than incrementalizing –
making small and usually meaningless changes to previously
devised alternatives.
• Many poor choices result from falling back on default
alternatives.
• Choosing the first possible solution is another pitfall. Develop
a new habit: once you find
one possible solution, look further – generate new alternatives
that could lead to a better
solution.
• People who wait too long to make a decision risk being stuck
with what’s left when they
finally do choose. The best alternatives may no longer be
available.
The keys to generating better alternatives.
• Try some of these techniques to make the most of your efforts:
7
• Use your objectives – ask “How?” Since your objectives drive
your decisions, use them to
guide your search for good alternatives. Ask yourself “How can
I achieve the objectives
I’ve set?”
o Challenge constraints. Many decision problems have
constraints that limit your
alternatives. Some constraints are real, others are assumed.
o An assumed constraint represents a mental rather than a real
20. barrier. Try assuming
that a constraint doesn’t exist, and then create alternatives that
reflect its
absence.
o Set high aspirations. One way to increase the chance of
finding good,
unconventional alternatives is to set targets that seem beyond
reach. High
aspirations force you to think in entirely new ways.
o Do your own thinking first. Some of your most original ideas,
born of innocence, may
be suppressed if exposed to others’ ideas and judgments before
they have been
fully formed.
o Learn from experience. . You shouldn’t let yourself be
constrained by history, but
you should certainly try to learn from it.
o Ask others for suggestions. After you’ve thought carefully
about your decision and
your alternatives on your own, you should then seek the input of
others to get
additional perspectives. Keep an open mind during these
conversations. The primary
benefit may not be the specific ideas that others provide, but
simply the
stimulation that you get from talking about your decisions, from
organizing your
thoughts into explanations, and from answering questions.
o Give your subconscious time to operate. The subconscious
needs time and
stimulation to do this well.
21. o Create alternatives first, evaluate them later. Creating good
alternatives requires
receptivity – a mind expansive, unrestrained, and open to ideas.
Don’t evaluate
alternatives while you’re generating them. That will slow the
process down and
dampen creativity. Evaluation narrows the range of alternatives.
o Never stop looking for alternatives. Often, the evaluation will
turn up shortcomings
in your existing alternatives, which may in turn suggest better
ones.
Tailor your alternatives to your problem.
• Certain kinds of alternatives fit certain kinds of decision
problems. Four categories – are
particularly well suited to specific kinds of problems.
o Process alternatives. The best alternative is sometimes a
process rather than
clear-cut choice. Process alternatives help to ensure the fairness
of decisions
involving conflicting interests and thus can help preserve and
foster long-term
relationships.
o Familiar process alternatives include: voting, binding
arbitration, standardized test
scores (to establish minimum requirements), sealed bids, and
auctions.
o To create process alternatives, you can begin by listing all of
the basic alternatives
from which to choose. Then you should determine the right
22. process mechanism for
selecting the best alternative.
o Win-win alternatives. Sometimes devising great alternatives
isn’t the problem. The
problem is that your decision requires some-one else’s approval.
The key is to step
8
back and analyze his decision problem. What are his objectives,
and how can you use
them to create a win-win alternative that benefits both.
o Information-gathering alternatives. Information helps dispel
the clouds of
uncertainty hovering over some decisions. When there are
uncertainties affecting a
decision, first list the areas of uncertainty. Then, for each one,
list the possible
ways to collect the needed information. Each of these ways is
an information-
gathering alternative.
o Time-buying alternatives. Deferring a decision can provide
you with additional time
to better understand a decision problem, gather important
information, and
perform complex analyses. You may, as a result, be able to
dispel uncertainties and
reduce risks. Sometimes, extra time may allow you to create a
new alternative that
is much better than all the current alternatives.
! Deferring a decision usually comes at a price.
23. ! Devising a halfway alternative, a partial commitment, can
sometimes
circumvent the drawbacks of a delay in making a full
commitment.
• Know when to quit looking for alternatives.
o The perfect solution seldom exists. You need to balance the
effort made against
the quality of the alternatives found. To strike the right balance,
ask yourself
questions:
! Have you thought hard about your alternatives?
! Would you be satisfied with one of your existing alternatives
as a final
decision?
! Do you have a range of alternatives?
! Do other elements of this decision require your time and
attention?
! Would time spent on other decisions or activities be more
productive?
o If you answered “yes” to each of these questions, stop looking
for more
alternatives and apply your energies elsewhere.
5. Consequences
How to describe how well each alternative meets your
objectives
• To make a smart choice, you need to compare the merits of the
competing alternatives,
assessing how well each satisfies your fundamental objectives.
You’ll need to lay out the
24. consequences each alternative would have for each of your
objectives.
• Be sure you really understand the consequences of your
alternatives before you make a
choice. If you don’t, you surely will afterwards, and you may
not be very happy with them.
The main benefit to be derived from describing consequences is
understanding. You will
gain a better understanding not only of the consequences
themselves, but also of your
objectives and even of your decision problem.
Describe consequences with appropriate accuracy,
completeness, and precision.
• If you don’t define the consequences well, you may arrive at a
decision quickly, but it
probably won’t be the right choice.
Build a consequences table.
• The trick is to describe the consequences with enough
precision to make a smart choice,
but not to go into unnecessary and exhausting detail.
9
• Step 1: Mentally put yourself into the future.
• You need to shift your mindset ahead in time to uncover a
decision’s true significance.
Imagine that you have chosen it. Putting yourself in the future
will help you to focus on the
longer-term consequences of a decision rather than just the
25. immediate ones, and it will
help you to view these consequences in their actual context.
• Step 2: Create a free-form description of the consequences of
each alternative.
• Write down each consequence using the words and numbers
that best capture its key
characteristics.
• Step 3: Eliminate any dearly inferior alternatives.
• This step is a terrific time saver for many decisions because it
can quickly eliminate
alternatives and may lead to a resolution of your decision. You
essentially play “king of the
mountain,” trying to knock one alternative out with another.
• Take two alternatives. Select one that is the tentative king.
• Use your descriptions to identify the pros (in one list) and the
cons (in another) of the
king in relation to the second alternative, making sure you cover
each objective.
• Continue through your list of alternatives, comparing them in
pairs. At the end of the
process, one alternative may emerge as the clear selection. If
not, continue to the next
step.
• Step 4: Organize descriptions of remaining alternatives into a
consequences table.
• List your objectives down the left side of a page and your
alternatives along the top. This
will give you an empty matrix. In each box of the matrix, write
26. a concise description of the
consequence that the given alternative will have for the given
objective. You’ll likely
describe some consequences quantitatively, using numbers,
while expressing others in
qualitative terms, using words. The important thing is to use
consistent terminology in
describing all the consequences for a given objective – in other
words, use consistent
terms across each row. Now, compare pairs of alternatives
again, and eliminate any that
are inferior.
Compare alternatives using a consequences table.
• A consequences table puts a lot of information into a concise
and orderly format which
allows you to easily compare your alternatives, objective by
objective. It gives you a clear
framework for making comparisons, and if necessary, trade-
offs.
Master the art of describing consequences.
• Try these techniques:
o Try before you buy – Experience the consequences of an
alternative before you
choose it, whenever it is feasible.
o Use common scales to describe the consequences. Sometimes,
verbal descriptions
of consequences, however well organized, won’t be sufficient to
resolve a decision
problem. In these cases, scales will enable you to describe
consequences more
clearly and to make otherwise difficult decisions more easily.
27. To be useful, scales
must represent measurable, meaningful categories that capture
the essence of your
objective. Struggles with difficult-to-measure objectives yield a
significant
benefit: determining how you would measure an objective
forces you to clarify what
you really mean by it.
10
o Don't rely only on hard data. Give due recognition to
objectives that can’t be
measured by hard data. Choose scales that are relevant,
regardless of the
availability of hard data.
o Make the most of available information. For some cases you’ll
have a little data, but
you’ll need to supplement it with judgment- as well as a good
dash of logic.
o Use experts wisely. When you seek out the judgment of
others, be sure you
understand not just the consequences they project but how they
derived those
consequences.
o Choose scales that reflect an appropriate level of precision.
Too often, the terms
used in describing consequences imply a level of precision that
is higher or lower
than is reasonable or useful.
28. o Address major uncertainty head on. When the uncertainty is
modest, you can
usually define consequences using an estimate or representative
figure. For many
decisions, uncertainty may loom large enough to complicate
your ability to describe
consequences adequately.
6. Tradeoffs
How to make tough compromises when you can't achieve all
your objectives at once
• Important decisions usually have conflicting objectives – and
therefore you have to make
tradeoffs. You need to give up something on one objective to
achieve more in terms of
another.
• Decisions with multiple objectives cannot be resolved by
focusing on any one objective.
• Making wise tradeoffs is one of the most important and most
difficult challenges in
decision making. The more alternatives you’re considering and
the more objectives you’re
pursuing, the more tradeoffs you’ll need to make. What makes
decision making hard is the
fact that each objective has its own basis of comparison.
Find and eliminate dominated alternatives.
• The first step is to see if you can rule out some of your
remaining alternatives before
having to make tough tradeoffs. To identify alternatives that can
be eliminated, follow
29. this simple rule: if alternative A is better than alternative B on
some objectives and no
worse than B on all other objectives, B can be eliminated from
consideration. In such
cases, B is said to be dominated by A – it has disadvantages
without any advantages.
• By looking for dominance, you’ve just made your decision
much simpler.
• Consequence tables can be great aids in identifying dominated
alternatives because they
provide a framework that facilitates comparisons. To make it
easier to uncover dominance,
you should create a second table in which the descriptions of
consequences are replaced
with simple rankings.
• Working row by row – that is, objective by objective, you
determine the consequence that
best fulfills the objective and replace it with the number 1; then
find the second best
consequence and replace it with the number 2; and you continue
in this way until you’ve
ranked the consequences of all alternatives. Dominance is much
easier to see when you’re
looking at simple rankings. Using a ranking table to eliminate
dominated alternatives can
save you a lot of effort. Sometimes, in fact, it can lead directly
to the final decision. The
11
process of determining dominance also protects you from
30. mistakenly selecting inferior
alternatives, because they are removed from contention.
Make tradeoffs using even swaps.
• If all alternatives are rated equally for a given objective – for
example, all cost the same –
then you can ignore that objective choosing among those
alternatives.
• The even swap method provides a way to adjust the
consequences of different
alternatives in order to render them equivalent in terms of a
given objective. This
objective becomes irrelevant. An even swap increases the value
of an alternative in terms
of one objective while decreasing its value by an equivalent
amount in terms of another
objective. In essence, the even swap method is a form of
bartering – it forces you to think
about the value of one objective in terms of another. Whereas
the assessment of
dominance enables you to eliminate alternatives, the even swap
method allows you to
eliminate objectives. As more objectives are eliminated,
additional alternatives can be
eliminated because of dominance, and the decision becomes
easier.
Practical advice for making even swaps.
• Once you get the hang of it, the mechanical part of the even
swap method becomes easy –
almost a game. Determining the relative value of different
consequences- the essence of
any trade-off process – is the hardest part. The even swap
31. method allows you to
concentrate on the value determinations one at a time, giving
each careful thought.
• You can help ensure that your tradeoffs are sound by keeping
the following suggestions in
mind:
o Make the easier swaps first. Often, you will be able to reach a
decision (or at least
eliminate a number of alternatives) by just making the easier
swaps, saving you
from having to wrestle with the harder ones at all.
o Concentrate on the amount of the swap, not on the perceived
importance of the
objective. It doesn’t make sense to say that one objective is
more important than
another without considering the degree of variation among the
consequences for
the alternative under consideration. Concentrating on an
objective’s perceived
importance can get in the way of making wise tradeoffs. When
you make even
swaps, concentrate not on the importance of the objectives but
on the importance
of the amounts in question.
o Value an incremental change based on what you start with.
When you swap a piece
of a larger whole you need to think of its value in terms of the
whole. It’s not
enough to look at just the size of the slice; you also need to
look at the size of the
pie.
32. o Make consistent swaps. Although the value of what you swap
is relative, the swaps
themselves should be logically consistent.
o Seek out information to make informed swaps. Swaps among
consequences require
judgments, but these judgments can be buttressed by facts and
analysis. Think
carefully about the value of each consequence to you.
o Practice makes perfect. The even swap method will take some
getting used to.
Fortunately the process itself is relatively simple, and it always
works the same
way. Deciding on appropriate swaps, on the other hand, will
never be easy – each
swap will take careful judgment. As you gain experience, you’ll
gain understanding.
12
You’ll become more and more skilled at zeroing in on and
expressing the real sources
of value. You’ll know what’s important and what’s not. Perhaps
the greatest benefit
of the even swap method is that it forces you to think through
the value of every
tradeoff in a rational, measured way. In the end, that’s the
secret of making smart
choices.
7. Uncertainty
33. How to think about and act on uncertainties affecting your
decision
• Because life is full of uncertainties, many of the decisions you
make will involve calculated
risks. But you can raise the odds of making a good decision in
uncertain situations. The
first step is to acknowledge the existence of the uncertainties.
Then you need to think
them through systematically, understanding the various
outcomes that might unfold, their
likelihoods, and their impacts.
Distinguish smart choices from good consequences.
• Whenever uncertainty exists, there can be no guarantee that a
smart choice will lead to
good consequences. Although many people judge the quality of
their own and others’
decisions by the quality of the consequences – by how things
turn out- this is an erroneous
view.
• Decisions under uncertainty should be judged by the quality of
the decision making, not by
the quality of the consequences.
• We can’t make uncertainty disappear, but we can address it
explicitly in our decision
making process.
Use risk profiles to simplify decisions involving uncertainty.
• To make sense of uncertainty, you need to find a way to
simplify it – to isolate its elements
and evaluate them one by one. You can do this by using risk
34. profiles.
• A risk profile captures the essential information about the way
uncertainty affects an
alternative. It answers four key questions:
o What are the key uncertainties?
o What are the possible outcomes of these uncertainties?
o What are the chances of occurrence of each possible outcome?
o What are the consequences of each outcome?
• By providing a consistent basis for comparing the
uncertainties affecting each of your
alternatives, risk profiles allow you to focus in on the key
factors that should influence
your choice.
How to construct a risk profile.
Identify the key uncertainties.
• Selecting the uncertainties important enough to include in a
risk profile requires just two
steps:
o List all the uncertainties that might significantly influence the
consequences of any
alternatives.
o Consider these uncertainties and to what degree their various
possible outcomes
might influence the decision.
13
35. Define outcomes.
• The possible outcomes of each uncertainty must now be
specified. This requires answering
two questions:
o How many possible outcomes need to be defined to express
the extent of each
uncertainty?
o How can each outcome best be defined?
• The number of outcomes you’ll need to specify will depend on
the kind of uncertainty
you’re addressing. When there are many possible outcomes, you
should simplify your
expression of them by organizing them into ranges, or
categories.
• Because complexity increases as the number of categories
increases, you should always
seek to narrow the set of outcomes down to the fewest possible.
Start by defining a small
number of outcomes, and then add more as needed.
• However many outcomes are designated, they must meet three
further criteria. First, the
categories must differ clearly from one another, with no
overlaps (that is they must be
mutually exclusive). Second, the outcomes must include all
possibilities, with every possible
contingency falling within one or another category (that is, they
must be collectively
exhaustive). Third, the outcomes must be unambiguously
defined, so that when the
uncertainty is resolved, the event can be clearly recognized as
36. falling within one or
another of the defined categories.
Assign chances.
• Clearly defining the possible outcomes or categories of
outcomes will help you in judging
the chance that each outcome will occur.
o Use your judgment
o Consult existing information – consider all the potential
sources of information that
might shed light on the potential outcomes.
o Collect new data. Sometimes the particular data you need may
not be available off
the shelf – you may need to collect them yourself.
o Ask experts.
o Break uncertainties into their components. Thinking about the
components, and
then combining the results will help in establishing
probabilities.
• Subjective phrases may be sufficient for personal decisions
that will not need to be
justified to others, but they’re not precise enough for most
decisions. In most cases, you
will want to express chances quantitatively, as actual
probabilities, using either a decimal
or percentage. Using numbers reduces the likelihood of
miscommunication and sharpens
decisions.
• Pinpoint precision usually isn’t required in assigning chances.
Frequently, knowing that a
37. chance falls within a certain range is sufficient for guiding a
decision.
• As you proceed through your decision process, regularly
reexamine the chances you’ve
assigned to ensure their reasonableness based on your current
information.
Clarify the consequences.
• Depending on the complexity of the decision, you should lay
out the consequences in one of
three ways:
o A written description – although the least precise, a broad
written description may
occasionally be good enough.
14
o A qualitative description by objective. Consequences
expressed qualitatively by
objective include more information than simple written
descriptions, as they break
a consequence into its constituent parts.
o A quantitative description by objective. Though they may
require the most time to
develop, consequences expressed quantitatively by objective –
such as cost
estimates in dollars – are the clearest, the most easily
comparable, and the easiest
to use.
38. • Descriptions of consequences need only be precise enough to
provide the information
needed to reach a smart choice.
Picture risk profiles with decision trees.
• Some decisions, particularly highly complex ones, will require
further analysis. That’s when
a decision tree can be extremely useful. A decision tree
provides a graphical
representation- a picture – of the essence of a decision,
displaying all the
interrelationships among choices and uncertainties. A decision
tree is like a blueprint – it
lays out, methodically and objectively, the architecture of a
decision.
• Pictures can clarify the relationships among alternatives,
uncertainties and consequences.
It brings risk profiles to life.
• Decision trees are especially useful for explaining decisions
processes to others. Getting
into the habit of sketching decision trees can enhance your
decision making skills in two
ways. First, decision trees encourage thorough, logical thinking
about a problem. Second,
mastering the mechanical skill of tree construction on simple
problems will make it easier
to use the technique for more complex ones.
• When describing and comparing risk profiles:
o Strive to use numbers to clarify the chances of different
outcomes.
o Clarify the consequences by being specific
o Use the even swap method to convert intangible concerns into
39. a meaningful
equivalent value.
o Take time to think about the important uncertainties
influencing a decision. It does
require an honest effort to identify the key uncertainties and
their possible
outcomes and to clarify the chances and consequences of each.
8. Risk Tolerance
How to account for your appetite for risk
• Most of us take on some degree of risk, knowing that it goes
hand in hand with reward, but
not so much that we can’t sleep at night.
• You need to focus not just on the risk profile, but on the
degree of risk you are willing to
assume.
Understand your willingness to take risks.
• Your risk tolerance expresses your willingness to take risk in
your quest for better
consequences. The more desirable the better consequences of a
risk profile relative to the
poorer consequences, the more willing you will be to take the
risks necessary to get them.
• But making the smart choice also requires balancing the
desirabilities of the possible
consequences with the probabilities they will occur. The more
likely the outcomes with
40. 15
better consequences and the less likely the outcomes with
poorer consequences, the more
desirable the risk profile to you.
Incorporate your risk tolerance into your decisions.
• To take your risk tolerance into account in comparing risk
profiles, follow these three
steps:
o First, think hard about the relative desirability of the
consequences of the
alternatives you’re considering.
o Second, balance the desirability of the consequences with
their chances of
occurring.
o Third, choose the most attractive alternative.
Quantify risk tolerance with desirability scoring.
• Use numbers to express the desirability of each consequence
and, in turn, each
alternative.
1. Assign desirability scores to all consequences. Begin by
comparing the consequences and
ranking them from best to worst. You assign the score of 100 to
the best and 0 to the
worst consequence. Then you assign a score to each of the
remaining consequences that
41. reflects its relative desirability.
2. Calculate each consequence's contribution to the overall
desirability of the alternative.
Account for each outcome’s chance of occurring – its
probability.
3. Calculate each alternative's overall desirability score. Add
the individual consequence
contributions to arrive at an overall desirability score for each
alternative.
4. Compare the overall desirability scores associated with the
alternatives and choose.
Compare the overall desirability scores of each alternative, and
choose the alternative
with the highest score.
Use desirability scoring to make a tough decision.
• Going through the process of assigning desirability scores to
consequences won’t be
necessary for most decisions. But for resolving some of life’s
most important and most
complex decisions, it can be invaluable.
The desirability curve: a scoring shortcut.
• When you have many possible consequences, the assignment
of desirability scores can
become difficult and time consuming. There is a shortcut: the
desirability curve. After
plotting the desirability scores of a few representative
consequences – five, typically – you
connect them on a graph to form a curve. You can use that curve
to determine the
42. desirability scores of all other possible consequences.
• There’s one important limitation to the use of desirability
curves; you can use them only
when each of the consequences can be expressed using a single,
numerical variable, such as
dollars, years or lives saved.
• Desirability curves can be so useful, however, that it will
often be worthwhile to use the
even swap method to convert consequences described by
multiple variables into a single,
numerical term.
• The desirability curve approach breaks this thought process
into manageable bites,
allowing you first to carefully think about your desirabilities,
then to blend them with
probabilities to calculate appropriate value.
16
Interpret desirability curves.
• The shape of your desirability curve is a very good indicator
of your overall risk tolerance.
An upwardly bowed curve indicates a risk-averse attitude with a
greater risk aversion
indicated by a greater curvature. A straight line represents a
risk-neutral attitude, and a
downwardly bowed curve connotes a risk-seeking attitude.
43. Watch out for these pitfalls.
• You can avoid being tripped up by old habits and other
common pitfalls. Here are a few to
watch out for:
o Don't over-focus on the negative. Consider the full range of
consequences, not just
the bad ones.
o Don't fudge the probabilities to account for risk. Judge
chances on their own
merits, without regard for your risk tolerance. Account for your
risk tolerance
separately.
o Don't ignore significant uncertainty. When uncertainty is
significant, develop a risk
profile for each alternative which captures the essence of the
uncertainty.
o Avoid foolish optimism. Think hard and realistically about
what can go wrong as well
as what can go right.
o Don't avoid making risky decisions because they are complex.
You can deal sensibly
with complexity and reach a smart choice.
o Make sure your subordinates reflect your organization's risk
tolerance in their
decisions. An organization’s leaders should take three simple
steps to guide
subordinates in dealing successfully with risk. First, sketch
desirability curves that
reflect the risk taking attitude of the organization. Second,
44. communicate the
appropriate risk tolerance by issuing guidelines that include
examples of how typical
risky decisions should be handled. Third, examine the
organization’s incentives to
ensure they are consistent with the desired risk-taking behavior.
Open up new opportunities by managing risk.
• In making decisions at home and at work – especially financial
ones – you may frequently
find yourself facing a risk that exceeds your comfort level. If
so, there may be ways to
manage this risk to make it acceptable to you. Consider adding
these techniques to your
risk management repertoire. All of these techniques help to
manage risk by enlisting
others in transactions that reshape the original risk profile,
making it more compatible
with the decision maker’s risk tolerance:
o Share the risk. When a good opportunity feels too risky, share
the risk with others.
o Seek risk-reducing information. Try to temper risk by seeking
information that can
reduce uncertainty.
o Diversify the risk. Avoid placing all your eggs in one basket.
Look for ways to
diversify.
o Hedge the risk. When fluctuations in market prices or rates
(interest rates etc.)
expose you to discomforting risk, look for the ways to hedge.
o Insure against risk. Whenever a risk consists of a significant
45. but rare downside,
with no upside, try to insure against it. But don’t over-insure.
• It is good to have your advisors challenge your thinking on
risk tolerance, but in the final
analysis, it’s oyur own risk attitude that matters in making a
decision. You should certainly
17
seek out information and guidance from informed advisors, but
you should never let them
make a decision for you.
9. Linked Decisions
How to plan ahead by effectively coordinating current and
future decisions
• Many important decision problems require you to select now
among alternatives that will
greatly influence your decisions in the future. The kinds of
decisions the authors talk
about here involve a necessary connection between the current
decision and one or more
later ones.
• In such linked decisions, the alternative selected today creates
the alternatives available
tomorrow and affects the relative desirability of those future
alternatives. Linked
decisions can be years apart or they can be minutes apart. In all
46. cases, though, they add a
new layer of complexity to decision making.
Linked decisions are complex
• Following are the elements of linked decisions:
o A basic decision must be address now.
o The desirability of each alternative in the basic decision is
influenced by
uncertainties.
o Relative desirability is also influenced by a future decision
that would be made
after the uncertainty in the basic decision is resolved.
o An opportunity exists to obtain information before making the
basic decision. This
information could reduce the uncertainty in the basic decision
and, one would hope,
improve the future decisions – but at a cost.
o The typical decision-making pattern is a string of decide, then
learn; decide, then
learn; and so on.
Make smart linked decisions by planning ahead.
• Making smart choices about linked decisions requires
understanding the relationships
among them. The decisions linked to a basic decision can take
two forms:
o Information decisions are pursued before making the basic
decision. They are
47. linked because the information you obtain helps you make a
smarter choice in the
basic decision.
o Future decisions are made after the consequences of a basic
decision become
known. They are linked because the alternatives that will be
available in the future
depend on the choice made now.
• The essence of making smart linked decisions is planning
ahead. After making a basic
decision and noting developments, the decision maker again
plans a few decisions ahead
before making the next choice. Continuing to do this, step by
step, moves the series of
decisions toward the fulfillment of the decision maker’s
objectives.
Follow six steps to analyze linked decisions.
• The trick to making such decisions is to size up the situation
and then focus your attention
on those aspects that matter most. By creating a simplified
version of your decision that
retains its essential features, you can think sensibly and
effectively about it. The following
six-step process will help guide you:
18
Step 1: Understand the basic decision problem.
• Begin with the first three core elements of the authors’
approach: define the problem,
48. specify objectives, and generate alternatives. Then identify the
uncertainties that
influence the consequences of the alternatives. The
uncertainties are the crux of the
linked decisions.
• Draw up a list of the uncertainties. Then narrow the list down,
selecting the few
uncertainties, maybe just one or two, that most influence
consequences. These
uncertainties are candidates for developing risk profiles, if
necessary in future steps.
There is no need to do a full analysis of every uncertainty
confronting you.
Step 2: Identify ways to reduce critical uncertainties.
• Getting information before deciding means becoming
proactive about the learning portion
of the decide-learn sequence. You consciously defer making a
basic decision in order to
seek information that can reduce or resolve future uncertainties
and thus improve your
basic decision.
• To create information gathering strategies, you need to decide
what information is
important and how to gather it.
• For each critical uncertainty, list the kinds of information that
could reduce your
uncertainty, and then determine how your view of the decision
might change in the face of
the new information.
49. • Think about ways to obtain the important information.
• The next step concerning information is whether it is worth
getting it before making your
basic decision.
Step 3: Identify future decisions linked to the basic decision.
• Ask what decisions would naturally follow from each
alternative in your basic decision. For
your linked decisions, list all the future decisions you can think
of, and then whittle the list
to the few that seem most significant. In most cases, include
your basic decision and, at
most, two future decisions. Keep it simple.
Step 4: Understand relationships in linked decisions.
• You can draw a decision tree to represent the links between
choices and learned
information in sequence. Here are a few suggestions for drawing
a decision tree:
• Get the timing right. Anticipating the timing of and the order
in which decisions should be
made and information gathered is fundamental to making
effective linked decisions.
• Sketch the essence of the decision problem. Start on the left
with information choices (if
any) and outcomes, then fill in the middle by defining your
basic decision, and finally
complete the right side of the tree with future decisions and
uncertainties associated
with them.
• Describe the consequences at the end points. The end points
50. on the tree represent the
consequences of having followed a particular sequence of
alternatives and outcomes.
Step 5: Decide what to do in the basic decision.
• Start at the end of the tree (the right side) and work backward.
Lop off the branches
representing the alternatives not taken. Continue working
backward until you reach the
individual alternatives for the basic decision. You will now
have made a plan for each
alternative so you will be able to evaluate it more clearly.
19
• Deciding what to do in your basic decision includes deciding
what information, if any, to
collect before making the basic decision. To do this, first recall
the list you composed in
step 2. Then, for each item on the lists, estimate the costs and
benefits of gathering the
information. Costs typically include money, effort, time,
discomfort and delay. To
understand what benefit you might derive from additional
information, you must know what
you would choose if you didn’t gather the information; new
information is of benefit only if
it might change a decision. If you’d make the same basic
decision regardless of the
information learned, then the information isn’t worth gathering.
Step 6: Treat later decisions as new decision problems.
• However well you have prepared earlier, when you actually
51. reach subsequent decision
points, you should rethink the situation. Take advantage of new
knowledge to enhance your
understanding of your new decision problem and improve your
plan.
Keep your options open with flexible plans.
• Sometimes uncertainty is so great and the present environment
so changeable that it is
difficult to plan future decisions with confidence. In these
cases, you should consider
developing flexible plans that allow you to make the most of
whatever circumstances arise.
Flexible plans keep your options open.
• All-weather plans. They represent a compromise strategy. In
highly volatile situations,
where the risk of outright failure is great, an all-purpose plan is
often the safest plan.
• Short-cycle plans. With this strategy, you make the best
possible choice at the outset,
and then reassess that choice often.
• Option wideners. Sometimes the best plan is to act in a way
that expands your set of
future alternatives.
• "Be prepared" plans. These backup plans stress preparedness-
having a reasonable
response available for most contingencies.
Maintain your perspective.
• Just knowing how sets of decisions are linked and using a
52. modest amount of foresight can
help considerably in making a smart choice and can practically
guarantee avoiding many, if
not all, of the dumb ones.
• So, maintain your perspective. Your comfort level with your
choices may not be as high on
linked decisions as on simpler ones, but your accomplishments
may be much greater.
• Over time, making smart choices on linked decisions will
affect your life and career more
positively and profoundly than making perfect choices on all
your simpler decisions put
together.
10. Psychological Traps
How to avoid some of the tricks your mind can play on you
when you're deciding
• By now you’re much better prepared to identify and avoid the
eight most common and most
serious errors in decision making.
o Working on the wrong problem
o Failing to identify your key objectives
o Failing to develop a range of good, creative objectives
o Failing to develop a range of good, creative alternatives
o Overlooking crucial consequences of your alternatives
20
53. o Giving inadequate thought to tradeoffs
o Disregarding uncertainty
o Failing to account for your risk tolerance
o Failing to plan ahead when decisions are linked over time
• Research has revealed that we develop unconscious routines to
cope with the complexity
inherent in most decisions. These routines, known as heuristics,
serve us well in most
situations.
• In this chapter, the authors examine some of the most common
psychological traps and
how they affect decision making. The best protection against
these traps is awareness.
Over-relying on first thoughts: the anchoring trap.
• In considering a decision, the mind gives disproportionate
weight to the first information
it receives. Initial impressions, ideas, estimates, or data
“anchor” subsequent thoughts.
One of the most common types of anchors is a past event or
trend. Particularly in
situations characterized by rapid change, the historical anchor
can lead to poor forecasts
and, in turn, to misguided choices. Whatever their source,
anchors often prejudice our
thinking in ways that prevent us from making good decisions.
• You can reduce their impact by using the following
techniques;
o Always view a decision problem from different perspectives
o Think about the decision problem on your own before
consulting others, to avoid
54. becoming anchored by their ideas.
o Seek information and opinions from a variety of people to
widen your frame of
reference and push your mind in fresh directions. Be open-
mined.
o Be careful to avoid anchoring other people from whom you
solicit information and
counsel. If you say too much, you may simply get back your
own perceptions
o Prepare well before negotiating. You’ll be less susceptible to
anchoring tactics.
Keeping on keeping on: the status quo trap.
• Most decision makers display a strong bias toward alternatives
that perpetuate the
current situation.
• In any given decision, maintaining the status quo may indeed
be the best choice. Use these
techniques to lessen the pull of the present;
o Always remind yourself of your objectives and examine how
they would be served
by the status quo.
o Never think of the status quo as your only alternative. Identify
other options and
use them as counterbalances, carefully evaluating all their
pluses and minuses.
o Ask yourself whether you would choose the status quo
alternative if, in fact, it
weren’t the status quo.
55. o Avoid exaggerating the effort or cost involved in switching
from the status quo.
o Put the status quo to a rigorous test.
o If several alternatives are clearly superior to the status quo,
don’t default to the
status quo because you have a hard time picking the best one.
Force yourself to
choose one.
Protecting earlier choices: the sunk-cost trap.
• We tend to make choices in a way that justifies past choices,
even when the past choices
no longer seem valid. Our past decisions create what economists
term “sunk costs” Sunk
21
costs are irrelevant to the present decision, but nevertheless
they pray on our psyche,
leading us to make wrong-headed decisions.
• For all decisions with a history, you will need to make a
conscious effort to set aside any
sunk costs- whether psychological or economic – that will
muddy your thinking about the
choice at hand. Try these techniques:
o Seek out and listen carefully to the views and arguments or
people who weren’t
involved with the earlier decisions and hence are unlikely to
have a commitment to
them.
56. o Examine why admitting to an earlier mistake distresses you.
o If you worry about being second-guessed by others, make this
consequence an
explicit part of your decision process. Also consider how you
would explain your new
choice to these people.
o If you fear sunk-cost biases in your subordinates at work, pick
out one who was
previously uninvolved to make the new decision.
Seeing what you want to see: the confirming-evidence trap.
• This trap leads us to seek out information that supports our
existing instinct or point of
view while avoiding information that contradicts it.
• The confirming – evidence trap not only affects where we go
to collect evidence, but also
how we interpret the evidence we do receive, leading us to give
too much weight to
supporting information and too little to conflicting information.
• There are two fundamental psychological forces at work here.
First is our tendency to
subconsciously decide what we want to do before we figure out
why we want to do it.
Second is our tendency to be more engaged by things we
dislike.
• Try these techniques:
o Get someone you respect to play devil’s advocate, to argue
against the decision
57. you’re contemplating. Better yet, build the counterarguments
yourself.
o Be honest with yourself about your motives.
o Expose yourself to conflicting information.
o In seeking the advice of others, don’t ask leading questions
that invite confirming
evidence.
Posing the wrong question: the framing trap.
• The way you ask a question can profoundly influence the
answer you get.
• Psychologists have even shown that when the same question is
framed two different ways –
ways that are objectively equivalent – people choose
differently. Decision researchers
have documented two types of frames that distort decision
making with particular
frequency.
• Framing as gains versus losses. People are risk averse when a
problem is posed in terms of
gains but risk-seeking when a problem is posed in terms of
avoiding losses. Furthermore,
they tend to adopt the frame as it is presented to them rather
than restating the problem
their own way.
• Framing with different reference points.
• The effect of improper framing can be limited by imposing
discipline on the decision-
making process:
58. 22
o Remind yourself of your fundamental objectives, and make
sure that the way you
frame your problems advances them.
o Don’t automatically accept the initial frame, whether it was
formulated by you or by
someone else. Always try to reframe the problem in different
ways.
o Try posing problems in a neutral, redundant way that
combines gains and losses or
embraces different reference points.
o Think hard throughout your decision-making process about
the framing of the
problem. Ask yourself how your thinking might change if the
framing changed.
o When your subordinates at work recommend decisions,
examine the way they
framed the problem. Challenge them with different frames.
Being too sure of yourself: the overconfidence trap.
• Overly confident about the accuracy of their prediction,
people get too narrow a range of
possibilities.
• A major cause of overconfidence is anchoring.
• To reduce the effects of overconfidence:
o Avoid being anchored by an initial estimate. Consider the
extremes first when
making a forecast or judging probabilities.
59. o Actively challenge your own extreme figures.
o Challenge any expert’s or advisor’s estimates in a similar
fashion. They’re as
susceptible as anyone to this trap.
o Do your homework. Substitute facts for opinion wherever
possible.
Focusing on dramatic events: the recallability trap.
• Because human beings infer the chances of events from
experience, from what we can
remember we can be overly influenced by dramatic events –
those that leave a strong
impression on our memory.
• In fact, anything that distorts your ability to recall events in a
balanced way will distort
your probability assessments or estimates.
• To minimize this type of error:
o Each time you make a forecast or estimate, examine your
assumption so that you
are not being unduly swayed by memorable distortions.
o Where possible, try to get statistics.
o When you don’t have direct statistics, take apart the event
you’re trying to assess
and build up an assessment piece by piece.
Neglecting relevant information: the base-rate trap.
• Ignoring the base rate can lead you wildly astray
• Analyze your thinking about decision problems carefully to
identify any hidden or
unacknowledged assumptions you may have made.
60. o Don’t ignore relevant data; make a point of considering base
rates explicitly in your
assessment.
o Don’t mix up one type of probability statement with another.
Slanting probabilities and estimates: the prudence trap.
• Even one of our best decision-making impulses – caution- can
lead us into error.
• For sound decision making, honesty is the best policy.
23
o State your probabilities and give your estimates honestly. In
communicating to
others, state that your figures are not adjusted for prudence, or
for any other
reason.
o Document the information and reasoning used in arriving at
your estimates, so
others can understand them better.
o Emphasize to anyone supplying you with information the need
for honest input.
o Vary each of the estimates over a range to assess its impact on
the final decision.
Think twice about the more sensitive estimates.
Seeing patterns where none exist: the outguessing randomness
trap.
• Despite our innate desire to see patterns, random phenomena
remain just that – random.
• To avoid distortions in your thinking, you must curb your
61. natural tendency to see patterns
in random events. Be disciplined in your assessments of
probability.
o Don’t try to outguess purely random phenomena.
o If you think you see patterns, check out your theory in a
setting where the
consequences aren’t too significant.
Going mystical about coincidences: the surprised-by surprises
trap.
• The surprised-by-surprises trap results from a failure or an
unwillingness to give reality
its sometimes surprising due.
• When it comes to coincidence, people just don’t think very
clearly. They can’t accept the
indifference of randomness.
• When a seemingly rare event occurs, don’t be so surprised that
you forsake logic and the
laws of probability and believe instead that all rare events are
preordained. Usually a good
explanation can be found. Remember the following points:
o The world presents many potential surprises; you’re bound to
experience some of
them.
o An enormous probabilistic gulf exists between an event’s
occurring when it has been
flagged ahead of time.
o Some events that appear rare really aren’t.
Forewarned is forearmed.
62. • At every stage of the decision-making process,
misperceptions, biases, and other tricks of
the mind can distort the choices we make. Highly complex and
highly important decisions
are the most prone to distortion because they tend to involve the
most assumptions and
the most estimates. The higher the stakes, the higher the risks.
• We’re particularly vulnerable to traps involving uncertainty
because most of us aren’t
naturally very good at judging chances. Though we often make
forecasts about uncertain
events, we rarely get clear feedback about our accuracy.
• The best protection against all psychological traps is
awareness. Forewarned is forearmed.
You can build tests and disciplines into your decision making
process that can uncover and
counter errors in thinking before they become errors in
judgment.
11 The Wise Decision Maker
How to make smart choices a way of life
• By now it should be clear that the art of a good decision
making lies in systematic thinking.
A systematic approach helps you to:
24
o Address the right decision problem
o Clarify your real objectives
63. o Develop a range of creative alternatives
o Understand the consequences of your decision
o Make appropriate tradeoffs among conflicting objectives
o Deal sensibly with uncertainties
o Take account of your risk-taking attitude
o Plan ahead for decisions linked over time.
Other things to remember:
• Concentrate on what's important.
• Develop a plan of attack.
• Chip away at complexity.
• Get unstuck. Find someone to talk to about your decision
problem – let your mouth start
your mind. Once you get talking, you’ll see connections you
never saw before. Making notes
will jog your mind. A good way to get unstuck is to imagine
that you have to advise someone
else who has a problem identical to yours.
• Know when to quit.
• Use your advisors wisely. If you want advice on what to
decide, make sure you communicate
your objectives, tradeoffs, and risk tolerance along wit your
perception of the problem.
Better yet, decide for yourself after soliciting and incorporating
their input on problem
definition, alternatives, consequences, and uncertainties.
• Establish basic decision-making principles.
• Tune up your decision-making style.
• Take charge of your decision making.
What's in it for you?
• As you come to use the method routinely you will find that he
benefits come relatively
64. easily. You will discover that:
o Most tough decision problems have one, or maybe two,
difficult elements.
o Many of your tough decisions aren’t as hard as they look. By
being systematic and
focusing on the hard parts, you can resolve them comfortably.
o Describing the problem, clarifying objectives, and coming up
with good alternatives
form the foundation of good decisions.
o Identifying and eliminating poor alternatives almost always
provides a big benefit,
especially when they aren’t obviously inferior at the outset.
This discipline keeps
you from making a foolish choice, ensures a good choice when
differences among
the remaining alternatives are small. And often greatly
simplifies the decision.
o When there is uncertainty, you can’t guarantee that good
consequences will result
when you’ve made a smart choice. But over time, luck favors
people who follow good
decision-making procedures.
• Most important, always remember: the only way to exert
control over your life is through
your decision making. The rest just happens to you. Be
proactive, take charge of your
decision making, and strive to make good decisions and to
develop good decision making
habits. You’ll be rewarded with a fuller, more satisfying life.
65. 25
Recommendation: This book presents a process to help you
make better choices in your personal
life and at work. The authors provide valuable insight and
guidance on the inevitable and ongoing
negotiation with yourself when facing a difficult decision.
Contact Frumi at 949-729-1577
[email protected]
www.clarityandresults.com
About the reviewer: Frumi Rachel Barr, Ph.D
Frumi is a trusted advisor and leadership coach. She has a
passion for helping business leaders,
especially entrepreneurs and financial services leaders. She
helps them find clarity out of chaos,
communicate effectively with their teams, and accelerate their
business results. Frumi is a
former CEO and CFO herself and has an MBA and a PhD in
business administration. She is known
as a catalyst for change and when Frumi shows up with
dynamite and band aids, change is bound to
happen!