SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Martha Garcia-Murillo
mgarciam@syr.edu
Ian MacInnes
imacinne@syr.edu
The impact of AI on employment: A
historical account of its evolution
Citation
Garcia-Murillo, M., & MacInnes, I. (2019). AI’s path to the
present and the painful transitions along the way. Digital
Policy, Regulation and Governance.
https://link.growkudos.com/1r89qtg7pc0
SCHOOL OF INFORMATION STUDIES | SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY 2
AI
SLIDEMODEL.COM
Two views
“moronic buttonpushers,
lever-pullers, and dial-
watchers”
A PROBLEM
AI will give humans a
‘blissful’ and ‘truly
meaningful’ future
A SOLUTION
Objective
Impact that artificial
intelligence (AI) has
on labor through an
institutional
economics
framework
http://bit.ly/2WP65p
Benefits of AI
1. Personalized learning
2. Infrastructure to optimize the
location of electric car stations.
3. Law to determine ownership of
collaborative or computer-
generated work.
4. Creative industries
http://bit.ly/2wVijNF
Benefits for work
1. Better working conditions
2. Eliminate dangerous and
menial jobs
3. Shortened working hours
4. Expanding the variety and
amount of new products and
services
http://bit.ly/2Iig5hL
Institutiona
l
Economics
Ceremonial
Customs
&
Convention
s
Instrument
al
Logic
&
Efficiency
http://bit.ly/2F9KHQU
• Instrumental
& Ceremonial
•Instrumental
&
Ceremonial
•Instrumental•Instrumental
Scientific
Communi
ty
Private
Sector
Government
Civil
Society
SCHOOL OF INFORMATION STUDIES | SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY 9
http://bit.ly/2ZyyGfD
The scientific
community:
Instrumental
values
https://stanford.io/2Ij
U8z3
DRIVERS
Curiosity
Imagination
Science
1945
• Alan Turing designed the automatic computing
machine. The “Turing Test” was performed to
determine if a system was convincingly human-
like.
1950
• “There is an intense modern interest in
machines that imitate life” Scientific American
2005
• “Employment Test” was performed to determine
the capabilities of AI to perform ordinary human
jobs
http://bit.ly/2RovoI
Y
Types
Weak
AI
Strong
AI
AI
http://bit.ly/2Xg8
uJa
SCHOOL OF INFORMATION STUDIES | SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY 13
The private
sector:
Instrumental
values
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-ND
https://stanford.io/2Ij
U8z3
DRIVER
S
Reduce costs
Reduce risks
Increase
competitiven
ess
http://bit.ly/31DEMNl
Automobile
Industry
Detroit
Automation
Load, unload,
transfer between
machines
Radio and
Television
Manufacturing
Printed circuit
board
Assembled circuit
board
Lumber yards
Conveyorized
automation
Boards were
segregated by
length, width,
thickness
Challenges
1. Installations were slow and difficult
due to “bugs”
2. Management spent time on countless
phone calls with computer
manufacturers.
3. Computers required high skills that
were not yet available anywhere in
the country.
http://bit.ly/2Ri9oPF
Automobile Sector in Detroit
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1950 1960 1970 1980
Numberof
Employees
Year
s
PCs
Martha Garcia-Murillo
mgarciam@syr.edu
Ian MacInnes
imacinne@syr.edu
 The technical possibilities and the
ability of the machine to multiply the
productivity of labor was of great
interest to management
 However, local area networks that
handled communication among
workstations and electronic mail
were limited by the small number of
text lines
 “bewildering array of incompatible
hardware and software on the
market” (Hunt and Hunt, 1986)
Telephone
operators
• Telephone
operators got
replaced by
automatic
switching
Stenographers
• Stenographers
got replaced
by office
dictation
equipment
Raters
• Raters got
replaced by
computers
Mail clerks
• Mail Clerks
got replaced
by sorting
devices
http://bit.ly/2Ijyj
jh
Jobs
replaced
SCHOOL OF INFORMATION STUDIES | SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY 20
The government:
Instrumental and
ceremonial
DRIVER
S
Small
governme
nt
Self-
reliance
Long held
beliefs
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-ND
 Lyndon Johnson Administration
to alleviate poverty.
 In Detroit, the city created the
Community Renewal Program
(CRP),
 The buzzing world of
computers can be used to
properly target the program
(Thomas, 1997).
 The federal government
abandoned the project
Government
response
1. Significantly reduced workers’ access to
benefits under the extended benefits
program.
2. Raised the costs of the state’s
unemployment insurance by imposing
interest payments on loans.
3. Reduced access to benefits from the trade
adjustment assistance program.
4. Cut access to unemployment benefits to
people who left the military voluntarily. This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under
CC BY-SA
Same challenges
SLIDEMODEL.COM
Integration
problems
Installation
problems
System bugs
Technology and labor requirements
T2
Implementation
pains.
Non functioning
systems
High labor
requirements
High
inefficiencies
T3
Learning and
normalization
Skills
development
Integration
with operations
lower labor
requirements
T1
Introduction
of new
computing
technology
Overpromising
solution
T4
Efficiency
gains
Labor
reductions
Recommendations
http://bit.ly/2KU4
rvw
EDUCATION
Ceremonial
HEALTH CARE
Instrumental
Ceremonial
BASIC INCOME
Not Ceremonial
SOCIAL
PROTECTIONS
Instrumental
Ceremonial
01
Disparity in values of ceremonial and instrumental will create negative
values of AI on work02
Luddite fallacy will hinder potential efforts to design solutions for the negative
effects that technological transitions have on people.03
03
Local experiments can generate data and knowledge about promising
initiatives and can help identify factors that might facilitate or impede success
04
Conclusions
The transition is likely to start with the pains of implementation along with
enthusiasm for the technology. It will create jobs and a demand for training and
28
continuance

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