Technology disruption will cause the loss of 47% of jobs according to a recent Oxford study. This research looks at five technologies which will drive this wrenching change: Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Vehicles, Electronic Commerce, Internet of Things and Robotics. It examines the impact on CT but is very applicable to the United States as well.
Brown Advisory recently held a client forum called NOW 2016 to explore issues around disruption in technology and other fields. Speakers discussed advances in areas like genetic engineering, drone technology, and digital business models, but also cautioned that institutions need to adapt quickly to ensure equality and societal well-being amid rapid change. Three companies - Amazon, Microsoft, and Google - were highlighted as dominating the growing cloud computing industry by committing billions to infrastructure and demonstrating the reliability and security of cloud services.
Control vs. Culture: The New Technology Operating EnvironmentBrandwatch
The document discusses how technologies are advancing rapidly and changing culture. It notes that technology is disintermediating businesses by empowering both employers and consumers. Talent is in high demand but less loyal to companies. Startups pose major threats as they can lure away key talent. The only control organizations have is over their internal culture and values. This creates a radically different operating environment that requires changes to excel.
A review of the issues associated with prospective technological unemployment. This includes the outlook for universal income or guaranteed income funded by robot taxes. It also covers the U.S. fiscal capacity to undertake such a scheme.
Tim O'Reilly argues that AI and automation do not necessarily eliminate jobs but can create new types of work. While some studies estimate 47% of jobs may be automated in the next 20 years, technology solves human problems and more problems means more work. When productivity increases only benefit shareholders and not society, problems arise. However, AI can be used to augment humans and enable them to do things previously impossible. The future of work is up to us to ensure technology empowers people.
What's Next? Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society and Rebooting DemocracyNino Lo Cascio
Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society & Rebooting Democracy;
- IT Industrialisation
- Information Explosion
- "Everyware" - The Mobile Internet
- Natural UI
- Aging Population
- Digital Natives
- New emerging democracy model
- Scenarios 2020
This document summarizes key concepts related to micromobility and its potential role in addressing transportation challenges faced by cities. It defines micromobility and important related concepts. It outlines how micromobility could help reduce urban congestion and emissions while improving access to transit. However, it notes challenges faced by both cities and providers. The document then reviews varying regulatory approaches taken by cities and concludes that collaboration between all stakeholders is needed to realize micromobility's potential and develop effective governance frameworks.
My plenary talk to the California Workforce Association Conference in Monterey, CA, on September 5, 2018. I talked about the role of technology to augment people rather than replace them from my book WTF? What's the Future and Why It's Up to Us, and my ideas about AI and distributional economics, in the context of today's education and workforce development systems. I also summarize some of the work Code for America has been doing on the current state of the California Workforce Development ecosystem.
Brown Advisory recently held a client forum called NOW 2016 to explore issues around disruption in technology and other fields. Speakers discussed advances in areas like genetic engineering, drone technology, and digital business models, but also cautioned that institutions need to adapt quickly to ensure equality and societal well-being amid rapid change. Three companies - Amazon, Microsoft, and Google - were highlighted as dominating the growing cloud computing industry by committing billions to infrastructure and demonstrating the reliability and security of cloud services.
Control vs. Culture: The New Technology Operating EnvironmentBrandwatch
The document discusses how technologies are advancing rapidly and changing culture. It notes that technology is disintermediating businesses by empowering both employers and consumers. Talent is in high demand but less loyal to companies. Startups pose major threats as they can lure away key talent. The only control organizations have is over their internal culture and values. This creates a radically different operating environment that requires changes to excel.
A review of the issues associated with prospective technological unemployment. This includes the outlook for universal income or guaranteed income funded by robot taxes. It also covers the U.S. fiscal capacity to undertake such a scheme.
Tim O'Reilly argues that AI and automation do not necessarily eliminate jobs but can create new types of work. While some studies estimate 47% of jobs may be automated in the next 20 years, technology solves human problems and more problems means more work. When productivity increases only benefit shareholders and not society, problems arise. However, AI can be used to augment humans and enable them to do things previously impossible. The future of work is up to us to ensure technology empowers people.
What's Next? Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society and Rebooting DemocracyNino Lo Cascio
Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society & Rebooting Democracy;
- IT Industrialisation
- Information Explosion
- "Everyware" - The Mobile Internet
- Natural UI
- Aging Population
- Digital Natives
- New emerging democracy model
- Scenarios 2020
This document summarizes key concepts related to micromobility and its potential role in addressing transportation challenges faced by cities. It defines micromobility and important related concepts. It outlines how micromobility could help reduce urban congestion and emissions while improving access to transit. However, it notes challenges faced by both cities and providers. The document then reviews varying regulatory approaches taken by cities and concludes that collaboration between all stakeholders is needed to realize micromobility's potential and develop effective governance frameworks.
My plenary talk to the California Workforce Association Conference in Monterey, CA, on September 5, 2018. I talked about the role of technology to augment people rather than replace them from my book WTF? What's the Future and Why It's Up to Us, and my ideas about AI and distributional economics, in the context of today's education and workforce development systems. I also summarize some of the work Code for America has been doing on the current state of the California Workforce Development ecosystem.
WEF predicts automation will displace 75 million jobs globally by 2022 but create 133 million new ones. Those in kindergarten today will graduate in 2030. What will work look like? What skills will be most in demand? We identify the most and least important skills for success in a world driven by automation and human-machine collaboration.
My talk for TechStars at Techweek Kansas City in October 2018. While this is a talk based on my book WTF?, it is fairly different from many of the others that I've posted here, in that it focuses specifically on parts of the book that contain advice for entrepreneurs, rather than on the broader questions of technology and the economy. As always, look at the speaker notes for
My keynote at OSCON 2018 in Portland. What I love about open source software, and what that teaches us about how we can have a better future by the better design of online marketplaces and the algorithms that manage them - and our entire economy. The narrative is in the speaker notes.
My keynote at the Open Exchange Summit in Nashville on April 18, 2018. I talk about the implications for many different kinds of companies of the fact that increasingly large segments of our economy are being dominated by algorithmically managed network marketplaces.
The document discusses how automation and AI will change the nature of work. It argues that most jobs will be redesigned to take advantage of both machine strengths like speed and accuracy as well as human strengths like creativity and judgment. New roles will emerge that facilitate the implementation of automation or use AI to augment human capabilities. Overall, automation tends to raise prosperity by taking over routine tasks while leaving more complex problems for humans. The document outlines different types of human-machine collaboration and how design careers in particular may be transformed by pairing creative human skills with AI's ability to analyze large datasets and generate new ideas.
This document discusses the rise of artificial intelligence and its implications. It argues that while the definition of AI remains contested, experts agree we are witnessing an AI revolution enabled by advances in big data, machine learning, and cloud computing. This revolution could generate significant economic and social benefits through increased productivity, improvements to healthcare, transportation, education and more. However, it also poses major policy challenges around balancing power and regulating new technologies, adapting social systems, and ensuring the benefits are widely shared. International cooperation will be needed to guide development of AI in an ethical manner and avoid exacerbating inequalities. The potential benefits of AI are substantial if societies can successfully navigate these challenges.
GT Briefing March 2012 Technologies Reshaping Our WorldTracey Keys
The document discusses how emerging technologies will reshape the world in the coming decades. It covers technologies that will impact resources like energy and food, reshape production through advances like 3D printing and smart machines, and change daily life with connectivity and smart transportation. Some key impacts include more sustainable energy sources, customized manufacturing in the home, intelligent homes and devices, and new forms of transportation. While change will be difficult for some, emerging technologies will challenge existing systems and redefine value.
In this update of his past presentations on Mobile Eating the World -- delivered most recently at The Guardian's Changing Media Summit -- a16z’s Benedict Evans takes us through how technology is universal through mobile. How mobile is not a subset of the internet anymore. And how mobile (and accompanying trends of cloud and AI) is also driving new productivity tools.
In fact, mobile -- which encompasses everything from drones to cars -- is everything.
Behind the Slow Growth of AI: Failed Moonshots, Unprofitable Startups, Error...Jeffrey Funk
Smaller than expected markets, money-losing startups, failure of Watson, slow-diffusion of self-driving vehicles and medical imaging, and scorching criticisms of Google’s research papers are some of the examples used to characterize the hype of AI. There are some successes, but they are much smaller than the predictions, with advertising, news, and e-commerce having the biggest success stories. Looking forward, #AI will augment not replace workers just as past technologies did on farms, factories, and offices. Robotic process automation and natural language processing are likely to play important roles in this augmentation with #RPA automating repetitive work, natural language processing categorizing information, and RPA also putting the information in the right bins for engineers, accountants, researchers, journalists, and lawyers. The big challenges include exponentially rising demands on computers for high accuracies in images, a slowdown in supercomputer improvements, datasets riddled with errors, and reproducibility problems. See either this podcast or my slides, whose URL is shown in comments. #technolgy #innovation #venturecapital #ipo #artificialintelligence
Artificial intelligence has the potential to significantly impact employment levels in the coming decades. While some jobs may be eliminated as certain tasks are automated, AI is also expected to create new types of jobs to meet emerging needs. Up to one-quarter of current jobs could be affected by automation, with roles in transportation, manufacturing, retail, and food service among those most vulnerable. However, AI will also generate demand for new jobs working with man-machine hybrid teams or in fields like healthcare, education, and robotics engineering. Governments will need policies to help displaced workers transition to growing industries and address disparities between regions and sectors. Overall, studies suggest that while AI disruption may not be more significant than previous automation, managing this change
The future of financial reporting by liv watson and brad monterioWorkiva
The document summarizes a presentation given by Liv Apneseth Watson on the future of financial reporting. Watson discussed trends affecting future reporting such as ubiquitous internet access and cheaper computing. She also covered the social reporting revolution and the evolution of reporting to integrate financial, environmental, social and governance information. Watson explained challenges like the lack of standards but also opportunities like improved transparency and economic value. She advocated for integrated reporting and highlighted leaders already adopting the approach.
Google handles over 3 billion searches a day, Amazon offers a storefront with 600 million unique items, Facebook users post 6 billion pieces of content sailing, all with the aid of complex algorithmic systems that respond to a constant influx of new data, adversarial activity by those trying to game the system, and changing preferences of users. These systems represent breakthroughs in the governance of complex, interacting systems, with algorithms that must be constantly updated to respond to rapidly changing conditions. The economy as a whole is also full of complex, interacting systems, but we still try to manage those systems with 20th century tools and processes. This talk explores what we can learn from technology platforms about new approaches that the Fed might take to improve its historical mission using the tools of agile development, big data, and artificial intelligence. My talk at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank FedAgile conference on November 7, 2018. Download the PPT file to read the narrative in the speaker notes. (I wish slideshare did a better job of displaying these, but they don't.)
Do More. Do things that were previously impossible!Tim O'Reilly
My keynote at SxSW Interactive on March 9, 2018. I tackle the job of the entrepreneur to redraw the map, and not to accept the idea that technology will put people out of work rather than creating new kinds of prosperity. I try to provide a call to action to throw off the shackles of the old world and to build a new one. So many companies play defense. Cut costs, watch the competition, follow best practices. Great entrepreneurs like Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk play offense. They see the world with fresh eyes, taking off the blinders that keep companies using technology to make slight improvements to existing products and practices, rather than imagining the world as it could be, given the new capabilities that technology has given us.
The Slow Growth of AI: The State of AI and Its ApplicationsJeffrey Funk
The failure of IBM Watson, disappointments of self-driving vehicles, slow diffusion of medical imaging, small markets for AI software, and scorching criticisms of Google’s research papers provide evidence for hype and disappointment in AI, which is consistent with negative social impact of Big Data and AI algorithms. There are some successes, but they are much smaller than the predictions, with virtual applications (advertising, news, retail sales, finance and e-commerce) having the largest success, building from previous Big Data usage in the past. Looking forward, AI will augment not replace workers just as past technologies did on farms, factories, and offices. Robotic process automation and natural language processing are likely to play important roles in this augmentation with RPA automating repetitive work, natural language processing summarizing information, and RPA also putting the information in the right bins for engineers, accountants, researchers, journalists, and lawyers. Big challenges include reductions in training time depending on faster computers, exponentially rising demands on computers for high accuracies in image recognition, a slowdown in supercomputer improvements, datasets riddled with errors, and reproducibility problems.
My keynote at the 2018 New Profit Gathering of Leaders conference in Boston on May 17, 2018. I talk about the lessons from technology platforms, how they teach us what is wrong with our economy, and the possibilities of AI for creating better, fairer, more effective decisions about "who gets what and why" in the economy.
We Get What We Ask For: Towards a New Distributional EconomicsTim O'Reilly
My keynote at the Venturebeat Blueprint conference in Reno, NV on March 6, 2018. The bad maps that are holding us back from building a better world. Technology need not eliminate jobs. It could be helping us tackle the world's great problems, and helping design marketplaces that ensure a more equitable distribution of the proceeds from doing so. The narrative that goes with the deck is in the speaker notes. There is also a summary and link to the video at https://venturebeat.com/2018/03/06/tim-oreilly-to-tech-companies-use-a-i-to-do-more-than-cut-costs/
Yet another version of my book talk, this time at Harvard Business School, on March 28, 2018. This one had fewer slides with less connecting narrative so that I could spend more time interacting with the audience. I think it went pretty well. As usual, the speaker notes contain the narrative that goes with the slides, which are mostly images.
What's Wrong With Silicon Valley's Growth ModelTim O'Reilly
A talk I gave on the oreilly.com live training platform on January 22, 2020, focusing on the way that many Silicon Valley startups are designed to be financial instruments rather than real companies. They are gaming the financial system, much like the CDOs that fueled the 2009 financial crash. I talk about the rise of profitless IPOs, and contrast that with the huge profits of the last wave of Silicon Valley giants. In many ways, it is an extended meditation on Benjamin Graham's famous statement, "In the short term, the market is a voting machine, but in the long term it is a weighing machine."
For this paper, we interviewed some of the leading voices in the connected car industry to uncover some of the trends influencing the market, and what it might mean for the future of any business seeking to capitalize on this radical change in how we live and move. We examine how these changes are fundamentally altering the talent landscape in the industry, heralding the arrival of a new breed of executives to fill an evolving talent gap in the mobility sector; created by the convergence of the traditional automotive sector and a myriad of outside influences.
WEF predicts automation will displace 75 million jobs globally by 2022 but create 133 million new ones. Those in kindergarten today will graduate in 2030. What will work look like? What skills will be most in demand? We identify the most and least important skills for success in a world driven by automation and human-machine collaboration.
My talk for TechStars at Techweek Kansas City in October 2018. While this is a talk based on my book WTF?, it is fairly different from many of the others that I've posted here, in that it focuses specifically on parts of the book that contain advice for entrepreneurs, rather than on the broader questions of technology and the economy. As always, look at the speaker notes for
My keynote at OSCON 2018 in Portland. What I love about open source software, and what that teaches us about how we can have a better future by the better design of online marketplaces and the algorithms that manage them - and our entire economy. The narrative is in the speaker notes.
My keynote at the Open Exchange Summit in Nashville on April 18, 2018. I talk about the implications for many different kinds of companies of the fact that increasingly large segments of our economy are being dominated by algorithmically managed network marketplaces.
The document discusses how automation and AI will change the nature of work. It argues that most jobs will be redesigned to take advantage of both machine strengths like speed and accuracy as well as human strengths like creativity and judgment. New roles will emerge that facilitate the implementation of automation or use AI to augment human capabilities. Overall, automation tends to raise prosperity by taking over routine tasks while leaving more complex problems for humans. The document outlines different types of human-machine collaboration and how design careers in particular may be transformed by pairing creative human skills with AI's ability to analyze large datasets and generate new ideas.
This document discusses the rise of artificial intelligence and its implications. It argues that while the definition of AI remains contested, experts agree we are witnessing an AI revolution enabled by advances in big data, machine learning, and cloud computing. This revolution could generate significant economic and social benefits through increased productivity, improvements to healthcare, transportation, education and more. However, it also poses major policy challenges around balancing power and regulating new technologies, adapting social systems, and ensuring the benefits are widely shared. International cooperation will be needed to guide development of AI in an ethical manner and avoid exacerbating inequalities. The potential benefits of AI are substantial if societies can successfully navigate these challenges.
GT Briefing March 2012 Technologies Reshaping Our WorldTracey Keys
The document discusses how emerging technologies will reshape the world in the coming decades. It covers technologies that will impact resources like energy and food, reshape production through advances like 3D printing and smart machines, and change daily life with connectivity and smart transportation. Some key impacts include more sustainable energy sources, customized manufacturing in the home, intelligent homes and devices, and new forms of transportation. While change will be difficult for some, emerging technologies will challenge existing systems and redefine value.
In this update of his past presentations on Mobile Eating the World -- delivered most recently at The Guardian's Changing Media Summit -- a16z’s Benedict Evans takes us through how technology is universal through mobile. How mobile is not a subset of the internet anymore. And how mobile (and accompanying trends of cloud and AI) is also driving new productivity tools.
In fact, mobile -- which encompasses everything from drones to cars -- is everything.
Behind the Slow Growth of AI: Failed Moonshots, Unprofitable Startups, Error...Jeffrey Funk
Smaller than expected markets, money-losing startups, failure of Watson, slow-diffusion of self-driving vehicles and medical imaging, and scorching criticisms of Google’s research papers are some of the examples used to characterize the hype of AI. There are some successes, but they are much smaller than the predictions, with advertising, news, and e-commerce having the biggest success stories. Looking forward, #AI will augment not replace workers just as past technologies did on farms, factories, and offices. Robotic process automation and natural language processing are likely to play important roles in this augmentation with #RPA automating repetitive work, natural language processing categorizing information, and RPA also putting the information in the right bins for engineers, accountants, researchers, journalists, and lawyers. The big challenges include exponentially rising demands on computers for high accuracies in images, a slowdown in supercomputer improvements, datasets riddled with errors, and reproducibility problems. See either this podcast or my slides, whose URL is shown in comments. #technolgy #innovation #venturecapital #ipo #artificialintelligence
Artificial intelligence has the potential to significantly impact employment levels in the coming decades. While some jobs may be eliminated as certain tasks are automated, AI is also expected to create new types of jobs to meet emerging needs. Up to one-quarter of current jobs could be affected by automation, with roles in transportation, manufacturing, retail, and food service among those most vulnerable. However, AI will also generate demand for new jobs working with man-machine hybrid teams or in fields like healthcare, education, and robotics engineering. Governments will need policies to help displaced workers transition to growing industries and address disparities between regions and sectors. Overall, studies suggest that while AI disruption may not be more significant than previous automation, managing this change
The future of financial reporting by liv watson and brad monterioWorkiva
The document summarizes a presentation given by Liv Apneseth Watson on the future of financial reporting. Watson discussed trends affecting future reporting such as ubiquitous internet access and cheaper computing. She also covered the social reporting revolution and the evolution of reporting to integrate financial, environmental, social and governance information. Watson explained challenges like the lack of standards but also opportunities like improved transparency and economic value. She advocated for integrated reporting and highlighted leaders already adopting the approach.
Google handles over 3 billion searches a day, Amazon offers a storefront with 600 million unique items, Facebook users post 6 billion pieces of content sailing, all with the aid of complex algorithmic systems that respond to a constant influx of new data, adversarial activity by those trying to game the system, and changing preferences of users. These systems represent breakthroughs in the governance of complex, interacting systems, with algorithms that must be constantly updated to respond to rapidly changing conditions. The economy as a whole is also full of complex, interacting systems, but we still try to manage those systems with 20th century tools and processes. This talk explores what we can learn from technology platforms about new approaches that the Fed might take to improve its historical mission using the tools of agile development, big data, and artificial intelligence. My talk at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank FedAgile conference on November 7, 2018. Download the PPT file to read the narrative in the speaker notes. (I wish slideshare did a better job of displaying these, but they don't.)
Do More. Do things that were previously impossible!Tim O'Reilly
My keynote at SxSW Interactive on March 9, 2018. I tackle the job of the entrepreneur to redraw the map, and not to accept the idea that technology will put people out of work rather than creating new kinds of prosperity. I try to provide a call to action to throw off the shackles of the old world and to build a new one. So many companies play defense. Cut costs, watch the competition, follow best practices. Great entrepreneurs like Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk play offense. They see the world with fresh eyes, taking off the blinders that keep companies using technology to make slight improvements to existing products and practices, rather than imagining the world as it could be, given the new capabilities that technology has given us.
The Slow Growth of AI: The State of AI and Its ApplicationsJeffrey Funk
The failure of IBM Watson, disappointments of self-driving vehicles, slow diffusion of medical imaging, small markets for AI software, and scorching criticisms of Google’s research papers provide evidence for hype and disappointment in AI, which is consistent with negative social impact of Big Data and AI algorithms. There are some successes, but they are much smaller than the predictions, with virtual applications (advertising, news, retail sales, finance and e-commerce) having the largest success, building from previous Big Data usage in the past. Looking forward, AI will augment not replace workers just as past technologies did on farms, factories, and offices. Robotic process automation and natural language processing are likely to play important roles in this augmentation with RPA automating repetitive work, natural language processing summarizing information, and RPA also putting the information in the right bins for engineers, accountants, researchers, journalists, and lawyers. Big challenges include reductions in training time depending on faster computers, exponentially rising demands on computers for high accuracies in image recognition, a slowdown in supercomputer improvements, datasets riddled with errors, and reproducibility problems.
My keynote at the 2018 New Profit Gathering of Leaders conference in Boston on May 17, 2018. I talk about the lessons from technology platforms, how they teach us what is wrong with our economy, and the possibilities of AI for creating better, fairer, more effective decisions about "who gets what and why" in the economy.
We Get What We Ask For: Towards a New Distributional EconomicsTim O'Reilly
My keynote at the Venturebeat Blueprint conference in Reno, NV on March 6, 2018. The bad maps that are holding us back from building a better world. Technology need not eliminate jobs. It could be helping us tackle the world's great problems, and helping design marketplaces that ensure a more equitable distribution of the proceeds from doing so. The narrative that goes with the deck is in the speaker notes. There is also a summary and link to the video at https://venturebeat.com/2018/03/06/tim-oreilly-to-tech-companies-use-a-i-to-do-more-than-cut-costs/
Yet another version of my book talk, this time at Harvard Business School, on March 28, 2018. This one had fewer slides with less connecting narrative so that I could spend more time interacting with the audience. I think it went pretty well. As usual, the speaker notes contain the narrative that goes with the slides, which are mostly images.
What's Wrong With Silicon Valley's Growth ModelTim O'Reilly
A talk I gave on the oreilly.com live training platform on January 22, 2020, focusing on the way that many Silicon Valley startups are designed to be financial instruments rather than real companies. They are gaming the financial system, much like the CDOs that fueled the 2009 financial crash. I talk about the rise of profitless IPOs, and contrast that with the huge profits of the last wave of Silicon Valley giants. In many ways, it is an extended meditation on Benjamin Graham's famous statement, "In the short term, the market is a voting machine, but in the long term it is a weighing machine."
For this paper, we interviewed some of the leading voices in the connected car industry to uncover some of the trends influencing the market, and what it might mean for the future of any business seeking to capitalize on this radical change in how we live and move. We examine how these changes are fundamentally altering the talent landscape in the industry, heralding the arrival of a new breed of executives to fill an evolving talent gap in the mobility sector; created by the convergence of the traditional automotive sector and a myriad of outside influences.
Australian Telco Digital Strategy Trends 2014 / 2015 v1Neil Aitken
The document provides an overview of digital strategy trends for an Australian telecommunications company from 2014 to 2015. Some of the key trends discussed include the growing pervasion of digital technologies both inside and outside of work, the rise of the internet of things (IoT) and connected devices, and the increasing role of big data, analytics, and cloud computing. The document summarizes several reports and studies discussing how digital is expected to transform various industries and society by 2050, with technologies like smart cities, personalized healthcare, and new forms of work and education.
Lalo Huber - El impacto de la Economía Digital - Econ2017Lalo Huber
The document discusses the impact of the digital economy on organizations. It describes how the digital economy is significantly transforming business models, industries, and the relationship between business and technology. Key trends discussed include the rise of platforms, on-demand services, data and analytics, artificial intelligence, robots, sensors, and new technologies like blockchain. The document also addresses how organizations must change their strategies, structures, processes and culture to adapt to the digital world.
The Second Machine Age: An Industrial Revolution Powered by Digital TechnologiesCapgemini
The interview discusses the impacts and implications of emerging digital technologies. Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee explain that the world is entering a "Second Machine Age" where machines are able to perform cognitive tasks previously done by humans. This will have widespread economic and social effects and transform organizations. They emphasize that technology will significantly disrupt jobs but can also create new opportunities if individuals and organizations adapt skills. Overall, the key message is that emerging technologies will continue advancing rapidly, and a proactive response is needed to harness potential benefits and address inequalities.
The Second Machine Age - an industrial revolution powered by digital technolo...Ben Gilchriest
There have been two big turning points in human history. The first was the industrial revolution, where machines replaced muscle power. The Second Machine Age is the time when machines are now able to take over a lot of cognitive tasks that humans can do. In this Capgemini interview with Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, authors of the recent book "The Second Machine Age" (www.secondmachineage.com), we get a summary view of what the 2nd Machine Age is, what it means for established companies, and how they should react.
I throughly recommend reading this book. It's an excellent summary of the impact and importance of digital and why it's important for companies to do more.
“ Artificial intelligence and Big Data are two burgeoning technologies, full of promise for businesses in all industries. However, the real revolutionary potential of these two technologies is probably their convergence. Discover the possibilities offered by the alliance between Big Data and AI. “
source : www.lebigdata.fr
Chapter 66.1 Changes, Fears, and QuestionsComputers free u.docxtidwellveronique
Chapter : 6
6.1 Changes, Fears, and Questions
Computers free us from the repetitious, boring aspects of jobs so that we can spend more time being creative and doing the tasks that require human intelligence. Computer systems and the Internet provide quick, reliable access to information so that we work smarter and more efficiently. But people still do the work. Nurses care for the elderly, and construction workers build buildings. Architects use computer-aided design systems, but they still design buildings. Accountants use spreadsheets and thus have more time for thinking, planning, and analysis. But will computers design buildings? Will audits be automated?
The introduction of computers into the workplace generated many fears. Many social critics, social scientists, politicians, unions, and activists saw virtually all potential effects of computers on work as highly threatening. They foresaw mass unemployment due to increased efficiency. (Some argued, at first, that money spent on computers was a waste because computers decreasedefficiency.) They argued that requiring workers to acquire computer skills was too heavy a burden, and that the need for increased technical training and skills would widen the earning gap between those who obtain the new skills and those who do not. They saw telecommuting as bad for workers and society. They expected offshoring (hiring people or companies in other countries to perform services that workers in one’s home country used to do) to eliminate a huge number of jobs.
Although the dire predictions were wrong, the many and widespread rapid changes raise significant social questions. How do we deal with the dislocations and retraining needs that result when computing technology and the Internet eliminate jobs? “Telecommuting” has become part of our vocabulary, describing the phenomenon of working at a distance from the traditional company office or factory, connected in cyberspace. What are its advantages and disadvantages? How does it affect the physical distribution of population and businesses? Employees have powerful smartphones, tablets, and other devices that can make their work easier. Should they use their own devices for work? What risks need to be considered?
At the same time that information technology gives some workers more autonomy, it gives employers increased power to monitor the work, communications, movements, and online activity of employees and to observe what their employees do away from work (e.g., in social media). These changes affect productivity, privacy, and morale. Why do employers monitor employees? Should monitoring be limited?
In this chapter, we explore these questions.
6.2 Impacts on Employment
· But nowhere is there any mention of the truth about the information highway, which is mass unemployment.
· —David Noble, “The Truth About the Information Highway”1
6.2.1 Job Destruction and Creation
The fear that computing technology and the Internet would cause mass unemployment migh ...
Let’s Build aSmarter Planet: Re-thinking the way Insurance works!IBMAsean
The document discusses how the insurance industry is being transformed by new technological and economic forces, and outlines a vision for how insurers can build a "smarter" approach. It argues that insurers must leverage the growing volumes of available data through more integrated, intelligent, and dynamic systems in order to streamline operations, develop new customer-centric products and services, and build a more sustainable infrastructure. The document provides examples of how some leading insurers are already taking steps to work smarter through automation, analytics, and virtualization.
Cognitive Systems Institute Group Speaker Series Presentation by Tor Andreassen, Director Center for Service Innovation at NHH Norwegian School of Economics on August 6, 2015.
The document discusses how the world is becoming instrumented, interconnected, and intelligent due to emerging technologies. It argues that this presents an opportunity for organizations to think and act in smarter ways to improve efficiency, productivity, and responsiveness across various domains like the environment, work, and infrastructure. Specific examples are provided of companies leveraging technologies like RFID and analytics to gain insights and make more intelligent decisions.
Our Guide to Digital disruption Update 2019John Ashcroft
This document discusses digital disruption and its causes. It identifies six global forces shaping digital disruption: 1) increasing connectivity through mobile phones and other devices, 2) the growing number of connected devices and emergence of the internet of things, 3) exponential growth in data creation and need for data storage, 4) lower barriers to market participation. These forces are accelerating changes in business models and challenging traditional companies through new entrants like Uber and Airbnb.
This document provides an overview of the future of risk and insurance. It highlights 10 key insights and trends, including the need to disrupt and innovate before others do, embrace technological change, get certified in risk management, leverage mobile technology, mentor the next generation, question traditional underwriting practices, and think globally about risk in our interconnected world. Emerging technologies like 3D printing, artificial intelligence, and messaging apps are disrupting traditional business models, and the insurance industry must adapt to better understand and manage emerging risks.
Siciety 5.0_challenges in Super Smart Society .pptxAnilDongre8
1. The document discusses some of the challenges and opportunities of Society 5.0, including advances in robotics, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, and other emerging technologies that will transform industries over the next 5 to 10 years.
2. Key technologies discussed include artificial intelligence, robotics, big data, cloud computing, augmented reality, and more. The document provides examples of how these technologies will impact various sectors such as law, manufacturing, healthcare, transportation, energy, and more.
3. The document also discusses new types of jobs and industries that may emerge as a result of technological changes, such as software developers, blockchain jobs, virtual reality jobs, data protection jobs, gene editors, and data brokers.
Artificial intelligence, particularly machine learning, is poised to have a major transformational impact on business. While AI is already used by thousands of companies, most big opportunities have yet to be tapped. Machine learning systems have achieved superhuman performance in areas like image recognition, speech recognition, and games like Go. However, their capabilities are still narrow - they have mastered specific tasks but lack general intelligence. The most progress has been in supervised learning, where systems are trained on large datasets with labeled examples to predict outputs. As more data and computing power become available, the potential for machine learning to automate tasks and transform industries will increase dramatically in the coming decade.
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Five Disruptive Technologies and Their Impact on Connecticut's Jobs
1. A World Without
Enough Work
Five Disruptive Technologies and
Their Impact on Connecticut
William Kelvie and Joseph Smialowski
December, 2017
2. 12/22/2017 2
Advances in Technology are Obsoleting Human Workers
The Connecticut labor force will lose 39% of its jobs over the next two decades to
technology disruption. These jobs will range from low skilled, low wage jobs to
highly skilled professionals.
The purpose of this document is to examine the disruptive technologies and to
estimate their impact on the Connecticut Workforce. It is one in a series of research
articles aimed at awakening policy makers to the looming threat of large scale
unemployment.
The authors of this report have had extensive experience as technology consultants
and executives. Both were born in Connecticut and maintain homes here. Their
entire objective is to see the state successfully navigate a potential crisis that could
eclipse that of the Great Depression.
3. 12/22/2017 3
The Five Disruptive Technologies are:
Technology disruption describes a discontinuity in which accepted methods for
doing business must be discarded and new ways adopted, typically resulting in
large scale job loss and regional dislocation. Current disruptive technologies
negatively impacting 39% of the state’s workforce include:
1. Artificial Intelligence
2. Autonomous Vehicles
3. Electronic Commerce
4. Internet of Things
5. Robotics
The research this document draws upon is based on work by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne of
Oxford University as well as other major studies.
4. 12/22/2017 4
Technology Innovations, Capital and Entrepreneurship
Technology Disruption is a powerful combination of Technology Innovations, Capital &
Entrepreneurship.
All the innovations deployed in the five disruptive technologies have existed for decades – nothing new needs to be invented –
Artificial Intelligence dates back to Stanford in 1956, the Internet to 1969.
Disruptions are typically complex integrations of multiple innovations, rather than a single technology. Driverless cars combine
artificial intelligence, Global Positioning Satellites, sensors, computer vision, radar and LIDAR (Light Imaging Detection and Radar)
among others. This ability to leverage an array of technologies saves vast amounts of time and capital, permitting unprecedented
speed.
Entrepreneurs drive the most successful disruptions with vision, ruthless pursuit of their goals, and a disregard for the impact they
have on the established order – both good and bad. In his lifetime, Steve Jobs disrupted publishing, music, animated movies,
mobile phones, personal computers, and publishing, while inventing none of the technologies involved.
Venture Capital is massively available to entrepreneurs who demonstrate the drive to disrupt major sectors of the economy.
Before his dismissal, Travis Kalanick, CEO of Uber, raised and spent $11.5 billion in venture capital while the company continues to
lose money - $1 billion in the last two years.
While disruptions bring immense benefits to humanity, such as a smartphone providing all the world’s knowledge at our fingertips,
they must also bring radically improved economics – most typically based on reducing the need for labor and therefore jobs.
5. 12/22/2017 5
#1 Artificial Intelligence
The most important general purpose technology of our era is artificial intelligence, particularly machine learning
(ML) - that is, the machine’s ability to keep improving its performance without humans having to explain exactly
how to accomplish all the tasks it's given….We can now build systems and learn how to perform tasks on their
own. Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, Harvard Business Review, July, 2017
Definition: A branch of computer science in which the computer applies logic to data, typically derived from
statistics to see patterns and make inferences to make projections more accurate. Examples:
1. Detecting credit card fraud by determining the likelihood that a card holder is in two distant places within
a small-time window.
2. Diagnosing that a chest pain is a digestive issue rather than a cardiac event.
3. Determining that you will buy a mystery novel, or a song or a cooking utensil because people who share
your tastes bought it before you.
4. Anticipating that the road ahead is slick with wet leaves which will call for a different braking technique.
After being greatly over hyped virtually since its beginning 60 years ago AI has come of age in the last few decades,
enabled by vast amounts of cheap computing power and low cost data storage. It will strongly impact “knowledge
workers,” professionals who populate a well-educated state like Connecticut.
6. 12/22/2017 6
The Impact of AI on Connecticut
Robo Advisors are not robots but are AI powered software programs that are a substitute for human
financial advisors. Pioneered by start-ups such as Betterment and Wealthfront, they scour capital
markets seeking investment opportunities for their clients while charging miniscule fees such as
.15% in contrast to human advisors. There are 4,300 personal financial advisors employed in the
state with an average salary of $133,000. Frey and Osborne project that 58% are at risk of being
displaced by automation such as robo-advisors.
The total number of jobs at risk in Connecticut is 427,500 with an average probability of elimination
attributable to AI of 59%, leaving 173,166 employed.
Occupation CT Population Risk % Remaining
Computer Programmers 5,850 48% 2,808
Claims Adjusters 4,980 98% 196
Paralegals 4,920 94% 296
Loan Officers 2,200 98% 44
7. 12/22/2017 7
#2. Autonomous Vehicles
Personal injury lawyers will see a significant decrease in demand for their services. Vehicle collisions, which accounted for 35
percent of all civil trials in 2005, will be all but eliminated with automated vehicles. While this may seem like a niche of
professionals, around 76,000 attorneys in the U.S. specialize in personal injury and make up 6 percent of the country’s
population of lawyers. Joel Barbier, Director, Cisco Digitization Office
Autonomous Vehicles include Driverless cars and, importantly, trucks and buses. The pace of innovation has accelerated from
early prototypes at Carnegie Mellon University 30 years ago to a major race between car manufacturers, Uber and technology
giants including Apple and Google. The competition extends to Trucks, Planes and Ships. Expected benefits include:
A 90% reduction in accidents – that is the percentage which are caused by human error, largely due to distractions and impairment.
A reduction in highway congestion, because AV’s will drive safely and predictably at high speed closer together to better utilize existing
roads.
Better Urban Land Usage, freeing up expensive parking lots and garages. AV’s can be parked in lower cost areas and brought around as
needed.
Greatly enhanced mobility for the disabled, elderly and young
Through autonomous trucking, a great reduction in the cost and time to ship goods long distance. Currently, human drivers are capped
at 11 hours per day while driverless vehicles will safely operate 24/7.
These and other benefits will drive adoption – California is expected to approve driverless vehicles for use in 2018.
8. 12/22/2017 8
The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Connecticut
In the state of Connecticut, there are 55,000 professional drivers of light
and heavy vehicles.
Selected Connecticut Jobs at Risk Due to AV’s
Occupation CT Population Risk % Remaining
Taxi Drivers & Chauffeurs 3,840 89% 423
Heavy Truck Drivers 13,900 79% 2,919
Light Truck Drivers 10,530 69% 3,263
School Bus Drivers 10,260 89% 1,129
Other Bus Drivers 1,650 67% 545
The total number of jobs at risk in the state is 54,630 with an average probability of
elimination of 79% attributable to AV’s, leaving 11,515 employed.
9. 12/22/2017 9
#3. Electronic Commerce
Let’s imagine, for a moment, a decade from now. The year is 2027. By then, Amazon has become the largest on-line
grocer in the United States-and it’s not even close. In apparel, the e-commerce behemoth long ago surpassed
Macy’s as the biggest retailer in the category, but now boasts multiple billion-dollar clothing brands of its own, too.
Amazon Alexa, the popular voice assistant, has overtaken Google as the most used search engine- or voice engine,
as they say now. It’s everywhere and powering the brains of everything. Jason Del Ray, recode, Dec. 6, 2017
E Commerce is exemplified by Amazon, which accounts for almost half. It has these structural advantages:
Huge productivity advantage over brick and mortar stores – per employee it is $1,267,000 in sales versus $279,000
The ability to drive productivity and volume purchasing into the lowest cost
The ability to manage massive inventory into an “endless aisle” of consumer choice
A far more comprehensive knowledge of the consumer including perfect memory of every purchase as well as near misses
Leveraging AI and big data to recommend purchases based on the similar tastes of thousands of consumers
Retail sales is a crucial gateway for non-college graduates entering the workforce. An epidemic of store and mall
closings is denying this opportunity.
10. 12/22/2017 10
The Impact of Electronic Commerce on Connecticut
Selected Sales Occupations at Risk:
The total number of jobs at risk in the state is 92,690 with an average probability of
elimination of 78% attributable to EC, leaving 20,736 employed.
Occupation CT Population Risk % Remaining
Retail Sales Persons 51,540 92% 4,124
Insurance Sales Agents 6,450 92% 516
Wholesale Sales Reps 15,200 85% 2,280
Merchandise Displayers 900 48% 468
Order Clerks 1,410 98% 29
11. 12/22/2017 11
#4: Internet of Things
Pill-shaped micro cameras already traverse the human digestive track and send back thousands of images to pinpoint sources of
illness. Precision farming equipment with wireless links to data collected from remote satellites and ground sensors can take into
account crop conditions and adjust the way each individual part of a field is farmed – for instance, by spreading extra fertilizer on
areas that need more nutrients. Billboards in Japan peer back at passersby, assessing how they fit consumer profiles, and instantly
change displayed messages based on those assessments. Michael Chui, Markus Loeffler and Roger Roberts; The Internet of
Things, McKinsey Quarterly, March 2010
The Internet of Things (IoT) is basically a network of sensors, which capture and share data with actuators that respond with an
appropriate action, such as opening a valve or sounding an alarm. These devices are enabled by the radically low costs of the
internet, permitting them to interoperate as well as to alert human and software monitors. The applications that IoT has created
include:
Smart Farming: the use of sensors in fields- coupled with satellite images- to determine efficient irrigation and fertilization
practices. Also to track livestock.
Smart Homes: the use of sensors and cameras to manage energy and security systems.
Smart Grid: Better management of power grids to move energy more effectively and reduce leakages.
Smart Cities: More efficient management of problems facing cities including traffic and public transportation, crime, waste
management and energy.
The descriptor, Smart, indicates the leverage of software, deployed through cloud infrastructure to bring intelligence to activities
at a price point that was unimaginable a decade ago. Sensors whose costs are rapidly approaching pennies are also an enabler.
12. 12/22/2017 12
The Impact of the Internet of Things on Connecticut
Selected jobs at risk due to the Internet of Things:
The total number of jobs at risk in the state is 102,100 with an average probability of
elimination of 75%, leaving 25,702 employed.
Occupation CT Population Risk % Remaining
Security Guards 11,610 84% 1,858
Maintenance & Repair 10,510 64% 3,784
Cashiers 38,800 97% 1,164
Inspectors & Testers 8,140 98% 162
13. 12/22/2017 13
#5 Robotics: Manufacturing
Today’s robots have voice and language recognition, access to large amounts of data, algorithms to process
information independently, greater mobility and dexterity, advanced sensors, and the ability to interact with their
environment. They have gained flexibility, speed and finesse, clearing the way for a generation of precision robots
that can slice meats, sort and fill prescriptions, pick and pack warehouse orders, or harvest fruits and vegetables –
far more quickly and accurately than human hands can. Gaining Robotics Advantage, Boston Consulting Group
Report, June 14, 2017
The first industrial robot was invented by an American, George Devol, and was deployed in 1961 at a General
Motors plant. Today, roughly half of all robots are deployed in automobile manufacturing, because:
Automobiles are an expensive product with margins that permit greater capital investment
The competition between car manufacturers is based on quality, which is significantly enhanced by robots
The presence of skilled engineers who have been architecting assembly lines since the days of Henry Ford
Ample room on factory floors to cordon off the robots from human laborers, protecting the latter
Highly predictable speed and tasks
Jobs such as spray painting are toxic to humans and therefore more desirable to assign to robots
Multi-shift operations permit the ability to amortize robot acquisition costs more quickly
As Robot prices drop, their “virtual” hourly rate falls below minimum wage
14. 12/22/2017 14
The impact of Robotics on Connecticut Manufacturing
CT Manufacturing Jobs subject to robotics:
Occupation CT Population Risk % Remaining
Sheet Metal Workers 1,170 82% 211
Electrical Assemblers 3,370 95% 169
Foundry Mold Makers 120 67% 80
Machinists 7,660 65% 2,681
Assemblers 9,740 97% 292
15. 12/22/2017 15
#6. Robotics in the Service Sector: Fast Food
McDonalds’ shares hit an all-time high on Tuesday as Wall Street expects sales to increase from new digital ordering
kiosks that will replace cashiers in 2,500 restaurants. CNBC, June 20, 2017
Robots in the service sector have progressed far more slowly, in part because the venues are the opposite of
manufacturing – small, unstructured space and more varied tasks. A logical entry point is the fast food industry,
where chains such as Eatsa have created fully automated restaurants.
Fast Food is a major employer of young, undereducated workers, but suffers 300% turnover annually because of
low wages and limited upward mobility. Owners are attacking costs and management issues by automating the
front of the store with kiosks and smartphone ordering. The actual food preparation is also being automated with
robots such as Flippy, which can grill 400 burgers an hour.
Flippy costs $60,000 to acquire, but assuming a typical 12-hour shift for 350
days annually, and a three year useful life, Flippy’s hourly wage equivalent is
$4.75. This is far below the national average of $7.25 and the aspiration of
$15.00 an hour.
16. 12/22/2017 16
The Impact of Robotics on the Service Economy in Connecticut
Food related jobs are a significant part of the Connecticut economy, accounting for
almost 5% of all jobs. Automation, principally through robots, will reduce these jobs:
Other service areas subject to disruption from robots include janitors, home healthcare aides and
groundskeepers.
The total number of jobs at risk in the state due to robotics of all types is 399,760 with an average
probability of elimination of 80%, leaving 78,857 employed.
Occupation CT Population Risk % Remaining
Cooks, Fast Food 6,380 81% 1,212
Cooks, Inst and Cafeteria 3,530 83% 600
Fast Food Servers/Prep 29,790 92% 2,383
Food Prep Workers 10,090 87% 1,312
Bartenders 7,740 77% 1,780
17. 12/22/2017 17
Summary: The Impact of Disruptive Technology in Connecticut
Taken together, and using a more conservative risk measure, almost 40% of
Connecticut jobs will be eliminated over the next two decades:
AI and robotics together will impact half of the workforce. AI will impact professional and managerial
ranks of the college educated, while robotics will displace less educated workers at the lower end of the
wage scale.
Disruptor Population Impacted Jobs Lost Percent Lost
Artificial Intelligence 427,500 254,334 59%
Robotics 399,760 320,903 80%
Internet of Things 102,100 76,398 75%
Electronic Commerce 92,690 71,954 78%
Autonomous Vehicles 54,630 43,115 79%
Totals: 1,076,680 766,703 71%
18. 12/22/2017 18
Summary: Workers with Jobs will also be Impacted
Jobs will be very hard to get and difficult to leave, given half the
population that is unemployed would welcome the opportunity.
Employers will be faced with a competitive and declining wage/price
spiral that will drastically pressure earnings, resulting in more lay-offs
and wage give-ups.
Technology costs will continue to plummet, giving employers more
options to eliminate jobs.
Artificial Intelligence Software that is more informed, subtle and precise
will marginalize all but the most knowledgeable human experts.
19. 12/22/2017 19
Where Do We Go From Here:
The authors wish to initiate a discussion with Stakeholders in the state
about the looming threat of disruption.
Other research papers are being prepared on related topics including a
deeper analysis of the impact on specific labor markets within the state.
Also being developed is a slate of recommendations covering areas such
as education and potential investments.
Comments are most welcome. The authors can be contacted at:
Bill Kelvie, billkelvie@gmail.com Joe Smialowski, jsmialowski@gmail.com