AgResults is a new multilateral initiative addressing the need for increased investment in global food security and agriculture, in particular from the private sector achieved through Pull Mechanism. Increase incentives for private sector investment in agriculture. Incentive after measurable results not before i.e Aflatoxin reduced maize through smallholder/contracting farmers. In areas where private sector investment is virtually absent due to market uncertainties. Leaving production, marketing and distribution strategies to the private sector( Implementers).

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Aflatoxin and its Management.
Debo Akande IITA
CADP Kano November 2015

2. www.iita.orgA member of CGIAR consortium
Introduction to AgResults Program
AgResults is a new multilateral initiative addressing the need for
increased investment in global food security and agriculture, in
particular from the private sector achieved through Pull Mechanism.
Increase incentives for private sector investment in agriculture.
Incentive after measurable results not before i.e Aflatoxin reduced
maize through smallholder/contracting farmers.
In areas where private sector investment is virtually absent due to
market uncertainties.
Leaving production, marketing and distribution strategies to the
private sector( Implementers).

3. www.iita.orgA member of CGIAR consortium
Pull mechanism in AgResults Aflasafe Project
Pull mechanism is designed to provide an incentive for
farmers within established networks to apply Aflasafe in the
field and produce as much high-Aflasafe maize as possible and
create sustainable market.
 Per-unit payments for performance : total kilograms of
maize treated with Aflasafe collected and aggregated by a
participant from smallholder farmers.
 Participant will receive a payment equal to $18.75 (3,000
Naira) for every metric tonne of high-Aflasafe tested.
 100% payout for aflasafe prevalence of the quantity of
maize that is above >70%.

4. Goal To improve the health and livelihood of smallholder farmers in Nigeria
Long-term
outcome
(5 year)
Increase consumption of quality
maize
Improve smallholder incomes
Medium-term
outcome
(3 year)
Short-term
outcome
(1 year)
Outputs
Activities and
initiatives
Increase availability of quality
maize
Increase smallholder sale of maize
in downstream markets
Increase treatment of crops with
AflasafeTM Increase smallholder maize yields
Administration of the pull mechanism including marketing,
promotion, verification and disbursement of funds
Program
Evaluation of
output
harvested and
collected
Participant
Support to
farmers to
increase
yields
Participant
Distribution of
AflasafeTM to
smallholders
Program
Evaluation of
AflasafeTM
prevalence
AgResults Operational Models

5. Pilot
Mgmt
27%
Verifier
18%
Awards
55%
• High Pilot Mgmt (PM) proportion as
40% of the PM budget is for
technical support provided by IITA
(training on AflasafeTM, sporulation
verification etc.)
Budget Category Approved Pilot
Budget
Pilot Budget Distribution AgResults Avg.
Budget Distribution
Pilot Mgmt $3.4M 27% 20%
Verifier $2.2M 18% 11%
Awards $6.8M 55% 69%
Total $12.4M 100% 100%
Nigeria Aflasafe™ Pilot
• Aflatoxins are produced by a species of Aspergillus fungi and have health effects including cancer and stunting.
• According to the CDC, 4.5 billion people in developing countries may be exposed to aflatoxin through their diets.
• Biocontrol reduces contamination along the entire supply chain, from the field to the consumer.
• The Pilot incentivizes the adoption of a USDA & IITA-developed biocontrol product, called AflasafeTM, that prevents the growth of
aflatoxin-producing Aspergillus by crowding it out with a harmless species of Aspergillus.
• Nigeria was chosen as pilot location as 1) it is the leading producer & consumer of maize in sub-Saharan Africa and up to 60% of its
maize may be affected, 2) it is the only developing country in which AflasafeTM was registered for use.
• AflasafeTM is distributed on the soil by hand 2-3 weeks prior to crop flowering (10-20 kg per ha) and outcompetes the aflatoxin
species of Aspergillus for organic matter. Application costs ~$19/ha, with a 95% success.
What is the problem addressed by this Pilot?
Low demand for aflatoxin-free maize
due to low general awareness of the
dangers of consuming aflatoxins
Lack of regulation as restrictions
on aflatoxin levels would affect a
large proportion of the food supply
Initial “push” efforts to boost
supply of aflatoxin-free maize
likely unsustainable and un-
scalable without linkages to
premium markets
Low investments by market
participants to boost supply due
to lenforcement of regulation
and low confidence in existence
of a premium market
What market barriers contribute to this problem?
What are the Pilot’s goals?
• Improve health outcomes by increasing consumption of aflatoxin-free maize through supply & demand increase
• Generate economic benefits for smallholder farmers through linkages to premium markets for aflatoxin-free maize
• Build a sustainable market for AflasafeTM
• Learn about the effectiveness of pull mechanisms for incentivizing SHFs’ adoption of agricultural technologies and provide a blueprint for a
larger rollout of biocontrol in developing countriesHow is the pull mechanism structured?
Implementers
Aggregators/Outgrowers
work with farmers and
provide them with value-
added services and
market linkages Incentive
Aggregators receive a premium
payment of US$18.75 per MT of
maize with a >70% prevalence
rate of AflasafeTM
• Incentive corresponds to long-
term expected premium (5-15%)
over market price for aflatoxin-
free maize
• SHFs to get even higher ROI
with higher yields and increased
market demand
Rationale
What is the pilot budget?
Page 1

6. Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Implementer Selection
Planting
Season
Harvest
Sampling & Verification
Awards
South
North
South
North
• Field officers inspect
AflasafeTM treated fields for
visible signs of sporulation
5-15 days after application
• Farmers harvest, thresh maize
and sell a portion to
Implementers
• IITA samples 1 out of every 3,
100-kg-bags of aggregated
• IITA creates 1 homogeneous sample
per truck
• 100% of samples are tested for Aflatoxin and
AflasafeTM
• Premiums are paid if the sample has >70%
• AflasafeTM applied to the
soil by farmers 1 to 1.5
months after planting
(Apr‘13 – Mar‘14)
Year 2 Year 3 Year 4Year 1Year 0
Design and
Pre-launch
(Apr‘14 – Mar‘15) (Apr‘15 – Mar‘16) (Apr‘16 – Mar‘17) (Apr‘17 – Mar‘18)
Closeout
(May‘18– Jul‘18 )
67%
33%
• 14 implementers in 8 Northern states
• 7 implementers in 4 Southern Sates
Kaduna
Kano
Jigawa
Zamfara
Kogi
Kwara
Oyo
Federal Capitol
Territory
Ogun
Ekiti
Page 2
Where is the Pilot operating in Nigeria?
What is the timeline and schedule of the Pilot?
How is sampling and verification conducted?
Planting &
AflasafeTM
Application
Sporulation
Verification
Harvest,
Aggregation &
Sampling
Verification
What is the Pilot cycle?

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The role of an Implementer
Development of 300+ maize farmers as groups.
Technical and Business Support ( pre-planting- post-harvest)
for the growth of the small-holders farmers (Quantity and
Quality)
Aggregation and marketing of aflatoxin reduced maize at
premium prices.

8. www.iita.orgA member of CGIAR consortium
Characteristics of an Implementer
Aggregation
Demonstrate ability to work with or intention to work with at least 300 small holder farmers and have an
established or proposed business model of sourcing maize from smallholder farmers and provide assistance
to their smaller holder members.
Have the ability and capacity to organize and coordinate smallholder farmers through pre-planting,
planting and post-harvest handling of maize that has been treated with AflasafeTM.
Have the capacity to train and monitor farmer groups on the environmental application of AflasafeTM,
post-harvest management and the safe transfer and storage of this maize.
Be capable of providing support to smallholder farmers’ maize productivity through extension and access
to farm inputs. This could include having systems in place to add value to production of maize or link
farmers to a package of yield-enhancing inputs, i.e. fertilizers, storage facility, finance, etc.
Provide business references including from farmers; references should cover technical support and
fairness of market price offerings.
Be capable of facilitating or coordinating the purchase of AflasafeTM on behalf of the farmer groups as
required.
Have the willingness and capacity to label all maize bags produced by farmer groups in keeping with
AgResults requirements.

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Integrated approach to manage aflatoxin
Aggregation
Aflasafe
Inputs & training to
improve productivity
Farmer groups/
value chain
Training for
pre/postharvest
afla management
Awareness and
sensitizations
Policy and advocacy
Market linkages
Aflatoxin testing

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Parameters 2013/2014 2014/2015
Number of implementers 4 9
Total Aflasafe purchased (tons) 24 58.2
Number of farmers 1,015 3,271
Treated area (ha) 1,457 4,998
Average productivity (tons/ha) 3.9 2.6
Maize aggregated for sale (tons) 2,031 7,220
Samples with <4 ppb AF (%) (n = 660) 99.0% (n = 232) 93%
Samples with <10 ppb AF (%) (n = 660) 0.5% (n = 232) 4%
samples with < 20 ppb AF (%) (n = 660) 0.5% (n = 232) 3%
Samples with >70% aflasafe strains (n = 88) 65% - 100% (n=81) 65%-100%
Return on Investment (ROI)
(-28 to 510%) mean
210%
(71 to 1674%) mean
489%
Aflasafe maize kept for family 46% 20.3%
AgResults Aflasafe Pilot
Key Statistics compared

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Implementer State
Number of farmers
Area treated
(ha)
Average area
per farmer (ha)Total Male Female
Babban Gona Kaduna 1,774 1,444 330 1,701 1.0
Tukuwayan Kaduna 607 588 19 1,441 2.4
Maslaha Zamfara 215 215 0 606 2.8
Ahalson Kano 320 320 0 600 1.9
Dak Farms Oyo 120 96 24 159 1.3
Albarka Kano 53 53 0 98.3 1.9
Fantsuam Kaduna 97 11 86 77.01 0.8
Ado Poly Ekiti 33 29 4 68 2.1
CADP Kaduna 52 46 6 247.1 4.8
Total 3271 2802 469 4997.41
AgResults Aflasafe Pilot (2014/2015)
Analysis of Participants

12. Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
No. of Implementers 5 12 22 37
No. of Farmers 2,500 8,500 19,500 35,000
Avg. Land Size (ha/farmer) 2 2 2 2
Avg. Yield (MT/ha) 4 4 4 4
Volume of Maize Produced (MT) 20,000 68,000 156,000 280,000
Projected Premiums Awards $.11M $.91M $2.08M $3.74M
Business Plan (BP) Projections
Year 0* Year 1* Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
No. of Implementers 4 9 21 38 46
No. of Farmers 1,015 3,271 8,037 17,918 30,944
Avg. Land Size (ha/farmer) 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 2
Avg. Yield (MT/ha) 3.5 2.6 3 3.5 3.9
Volume of Maize Produced (MT) 4,974 13,327 40,989 112,881 241,366
Projected Premiums Awards $.03M $.11M $.44M $1.21M $2.58M
Revised Projections: September 2015
(1) * Based on actuals
(2) (2) Other assumptions: Aggregation levels: BP: 75%; Revised Projections: 60%
Total Premium Awards $4.36M
Situation Lesson
Implementers’ Ability to Grow,
Aggregate and Increase Yields
AflasafeTM
works and the ROI is good. Implementers struggle, however, with their ability
to scale, aggregate, and provide value-added services to farmers. Climate issues have
also affected the pilot
Access to finance is critical to achieve the desired aggregator model. Also, impact
of climate issues needs to be considered when making projections
Raising New Value Chain Actors
The pilot has attracted Implementers with fewer farmers and is growing at slower rates
than projected in the BP
Estimates related to growth rates and timing should be conservative initially when
working with less established players.
Government Alignment
The pilot has benefitted from government collaboration and an absence of conflicting
policies
Non-conflicting governmental policies are critical for the pilot’s success
Total Premium Awards $6.85M
• IITA uses vegetative compatible group (VCG) testing to determine AflasafeTM prevalence levels.
• USDA is also developing a DNA assay to reduce verification costs. The assay is based on single
nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that occur in the AflasafeTM isolates, but are absent in other Aflatoxin
isolates. This new assay will be used for the current Year 2 verification.Aflatoxin-b
How is AflasafeTM maize verified?
What are the lessons learned so far?
Page 3
What were the projections? What have been the results so far?

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Conclusion