The document discusses issues related to longevity, aging, and population change. It summarizes that the International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent think tank focused on addressing these issues through evidence-based policy work. It notes challenges including a growing population of the oldest old (age 85+), who often live alone and have higher rates of illness, disability, and poverty than younger older groups. Healthcare and long-term care costs are also projected to rise substantially with aging populations.
29Oct14 - ILC Global Alliance Ageing and Mobility SymposiumILC- UK
This event was a half day symposium which showcased international research by ILC Global Alliance members on frailty and mobility in old age.
This event took place as part of the ILC Global Alliance visit to the UK.
Speakers at the event included:
Rosy Pereyra – ILC-Dominican Republic: Sarcopenia: A forgotten cause of mobility problems in old age
Susana Concordo Harding – ILC-Singapore: Are we living longer and healthier? Exploring gender differences in health expectancy among older Singaporeans
Sebastiana Kalula – ILC-South Africa: Prevalence and risks factors for falls, and the impact on mobility in later life: The Cape Town study
Didier Halimi – ILC-France: MOBILAGE: how to maintain frail people mobility? An ongoing experiment at Broca Hospital in Paris.
Kunio Mizuta – ILC-Japan: Long-term care prevention in Japan: To maintain older people’s mobility
Lia Daichman – ILC-Argentina: Loss of mobility, loss of Autonomy, loss of quality of life
Iva Holmerová – ILC-Czech Republic: Local and national initiatives to support active ageing and improve quality of long-term care in the Czech Republic.
Panel members at the event included: Marieke van der Waal – ILC-Netherlands; Jayant Umranikar – ILC-India
22May2017 - If young people ruled the world...DEBATEILC- UK
An ILC-UK Partners Programme Debate: If young people ruled the world?... Maximising the voice of younger people in an ageing society
Economics of Age,Equality and Human Rights,Future of Age,Intergenerational
Wednesday, 22nd May 2017; 08:30 (for 09:00) - 11:00, Great Hall, Chartered Insurance Institute, 20 Aldermanbury, London EC2V 7HY, Chair by Baroness Sally Greengross OBE
31Mar14 - Understanding wellbeing in old age across the world: lessons from a...ILC- UK
Global ageing is calling into question the differences between developed and developing countries.
Developing countries are seeing a growth of non-communicable diseases usually associated with affluence in wealthier countries: obesity; diabetes; cancer; heart disease; dementia; among others.
Urbanisation is posing significant challenges and opportunities, but countries like China are also seeing vast areas of rural hinterland with an increasingly ageing population.
At the same time, a complex picture of wealth and financial satisfaction is emerging across the world. The global economy is more heavily interlinked than ever before with the future economic success of the UK and wealthier countries likely to rely on the success of development in lower and middle income countries. There is a very positive story to tell about wellbeing in developing countries which is rarely heard.
Across the world, transitions are varying in pace, but a common factor facing most parts is ageing.
Focussing on ageing makes good development sense, a fact that policymakers are increasingly recognising. There has been growing interest from academics and policy makers in exploring how to best compare the impact of ageing in a global context.
HelpAge International's Global AgeWatch Index ranks countries by how well their ageing populations are faring.
The EC and UN supported Active Ageing Index (AAI) is an analytical tool that aims to help policy makers produce policies for active and healthy ageing.
The Global Aging Preparedness Index (GAP) was developed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ with financial support from Prudential plc. The GAP Index seeks to inform the policy debate about global aging and focus attention on the need for constructive reform.
Following introductory remarks from Chris Roles of Age International, Jessica Watson of ILC-UK presented new work using a major international dataset – the World Values Survey – about levels of self-reported financial satisfaction. Analysing data from 56 countries over six continents, these findings throw new light on levels of financial satisfaction within and between countries. This analysis has been made possible by the ESRC SDAI initiative
'Getting out and about' A Community Matters seminar from ILC-UK and Age UKILC- UK
The slides from the first in a series of three seminars from ILC-UK and Age UK on Community Matters - are our communities ready for ageing?
Full details here: http://www.ilcuk.org.uk/index.php/events/community_matters_are_our_communities_ready_for_ageing_getting_out_and_abou
A problem shared is a problem halved? Evidence report on dementia in europeILC- UK
With 7.3 million Europeans living with dementia and with the numbers set to increase to 15 million by 2050, this policy brief argues all European governments need to allocate more resources to dementia.
In these tough economic times, Governments across the EU are looking at ways to cut public budgets and curtail spending. All EU countries will need to prioritise spending on dementia and reconcile need, want and value for the public purse in the coming years.
29Oct14 - ILC Global Alliance Ageing and Mobility SymposiumILC- UK
This event was a half day symposium which showcased international research by ILC Global Alliance members on frailty and mobility in old age.
This event took place as part of the ILC Global Alliance visit to the UK.
Speakers at the event included:
Rosy Pereyra – ILC-Dominican Republic: Sarcopenia: A forgotten cause of mobility problems in old age
Susana Concordo Harding – ILC-Singapore: Are we living longer and healthier? Exploring gender differences in health expectancy among older Singaporeans
Sebastiana Kalula – ILC-South Africa: Prevalence and risks factors for falls, and the impact on mobility in later life: The Cape Town study
Didier Halimi – ILC-France: MOBILAGE: how to maintain frail people mobility? An ongoing experiment at Broca Hospital in Paris.
Kunio Mizuta – ILC-Japan: Long-term care prevention in Japan: To maintain older people’s mobility
Lia Daichman – ILC-Argentina: Loss of mobility, loss of Autonomy, loss of quality of life
Iva Holmerová – ILC-Czech Republic: Local and national initiatives to support active ageing and improve quality of long-term care in the Czech Republic.
Panel members at the event included: Marieke van der Waal – ILC-Netherlands; Jayant Umranikar – ILC-India
22May2017 - If young people ruled the world...DEBATEILC- UK
An ILC-UK Partners Programme Debate: If young people ruled the world?... Maximising the voice of younger people in an ageing society
Economics of Age,Equality and Human Rights,Future of Age,Intergenerational
Wednesday, 22nd May 2017; 08:30 (for 09:00) - 11:00, Great Hall, Chartered Insurance Institute, 20 Aldermanbury, London EC2V 7HY, Chair by Baroness Sally Greengross OBE
31Mar14 - Understanding wellbeing in old age across the world: lessons from a...ILC- UK
Global ageing is calling into question the differences between developed and developing countries.
Developing countries are seeing a growth of non-communicable diseases usually associated with affluence in wealthier countries: obesity; diabetes; cancer; heart disease; dementia; among others.
Urbanisation is posing significant challenges and opportunities, but countries like China are also seeing vast areas of rural hinterland with an increasingly ageing population.
At the same time, a complex picture of wealth and financial satisfaction is emerging across the world. The global economy is more heavily interlinked than ever before with the future economic success of the UK and wealthier countries likely to rely on the success of development in lower and middle income countries. There is a very positive story to tell about wellbeing in developing countries which is rarely heard.
Across the world, transitions are varying in pace, but a common factor facing most parts is ageing.
Focussing on ageing makes good development sense, a fact that policymakers are increasingly recognising. There has been growing interest from academics and policy makers in exploring how to best compare the impact of ageing in a global context.
HelpAge International's Global AgeWatch Index ranks countries by how well their ageing populations are faring.
The EC and UN supported Active Ageing Index (AAI) is an analytical tool that aims to help policy makers produce policies for active and healthy ageing.
The Global Aging Preparedness Index (GAP) was developed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ with financial support from Prudential plc. The GAP Index seeks to inform the policy debate about global aging and focus attention on the need for constructive reform.
Following introductory remarks from Chris Roles of Age International, Jessica Watson of ILC-UK presented new work using a major international dataset – the World Values Survey – about levels of self-reported financial satisfaction. Analysing data from 56 countries over six continents, these findings throw new light on levels of financial satisfaction within and between countries. This analysis has been made possible by the ESRC SDAI initiative
'Getting out and about' A Community Matters seminar from ILC-UK and Age UKILC- UK
The slides from the first in a series of three seminars from ILC-UK and Age UK on Community Matters - are our communities ready for ageing?
Full details here: http://www.ilcuk.org.uk/index.php/events/community_matters_are_our_communities_ready_for_ageing_getting_out_and_abou
A problem shared is a problem halved? Evidence report on dementia in europeILC- UK
With 7.3 million Europeans living with dementia and with the numbers set to increase to 15 million by 2050, this policy brief argues all European governments need to allocate more resources to dementia.
In these tough economic times, Governments across the EU are looking at ways to cut public budgets and curtail spending. All EU countries will need to prioritise spending on dementia and reconcile need, want and value for the public purse in the coming years.
Nudge or Compel? Can behavioural economics tackle the digital exclusion of ol...ILC- UK
On the 29th November 2012, ILC-UK held the launch of a new report: ‘Nudge or Compel? Can behavioural economics tackle the digital exclusion of older people?’. This report, kindly supported by Nominet Trust, examines the factors which affect why older people do not get online, concentrating on behavioural choice. The launch was hosted by the Communications Consumer Panel.
Close to eight million adults in the UK have never used the internet, with the vast majority being older people. Over two fifths of those who have never been online are over 75. Previous work from ILC-UK has drawn attention to the nuances in why this digital divide continues; reporting in 2011 that for digital exclusion, factors such as psychological issues ‘appear to be more influential than material factors such as cost or lack of physical infrastructure’.
Within the last decade a strong policy trend has developed with the use of behavioural economics. Explored by Thaler and Sunstein in Nudge, this theory has been used in the development of programmes such as automatic enrolment in occupational pensions.
The introduction of the ‘digital by default’ agenda is likely to eventually result in reducing the alternative options for accessing public services and information. While resources have been funnelled into projects aiming to getting those not online connected, concerns have been raised that people who are disinclined to use the internet will be left without support and excluded from information and services.
During this event we heard from a number of experts in this area and approached the following questions:
-What potential is there for behavioural economics to ‘nudge’ people online?
-Has media literacy failed?
-Should we make more public services available exclusively online?
-How can we ensure that the digital by default agenda supports people to get online?
- How can we use digital technology in imaginative ways to re-think the challenges facing people in later life?
08May14 - Community Matters: Are our communities ready for ageing?ILC- UK
As the population ages, an increasing number of people will be growing older and continuing to live in communities around the country. Many of our communities are ill-prepared for both the varying needs of older people ageing in place and the future increase in numbers of older people who will need appropriate housing, transport and services. The local elections in May also bring these issues into focus for elected representatives who will be seeking to prepare their areas for these challenges and give the best opportunities for good ageing to their constituents.
At this event we heard results of a series of three solutions-focussed policy discussions held by ILC-UK and Age UK. These discussions have looked at three distinct aspects of communities – from living at home, to getting out and about and the activities and amenities available (or missing) in our communities. We will be discussing a forthcoming report summarising the fresh thinking and practical suggestions for policy makers, local government and community groups gathered from these sessions.
The conference also included sessions on research and information on this topic, and what needs to be done to take action in our communities. All sessions will feature opportunities for attendees to participate in the discussion and add their views on where priorities for action should be focussed.
On the 24th November 2015, we held our first annual conference on 'The Future of Ageing'.
During this full day conference we painted a picture of the future of ageing and explored the challenges and opportunities ahead. Through our unique lifecourse focus we explored the potential impact of ageing not just on today’s older population, but also on tomorrows.
We heard presentations from:
- Steven Baxter (Partner, Hymans Robertson);
- Lord Filkin (Chair of the Centre for Ageing Better and Chair of the House of Lords Committee on Public Service and Demographic Change);
- Lord Willetts (Executive Chair at Resolution Foundation, and former Minister of State [Department for Business, Innovation and Skills]);
- Paul Johnson (Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies);
- Baroness Altmann (Minister for Pensions);
- Professor Jane Elliott (Chief Executive, Economic and Social Research Council);
- Professor Sir Mark Walport (Government Chief Scientific Adviser [GCSA] and Head of the Government Office for Science);
- Jim Boyd (Director of Corporate Affairs, Partnership);
- Elaine Draper (Director, Accessibility & Inclusion, Barclays);
- Mario Ambrosi (Head of Communications and Public Affairs, Anchor);
- Baroness Kay Andrews (Member of the House of Lords Built Environment Committee, Former Parliamentary Under-Secretary (Department for Communities and Local Government) 2006-2009);
- Professor Ian Philp (Deputy Medical Director for Older People’s Care, Heart of England NHS Foundation Trust).
The conference was chaired by Baroness Sally Greengross (Chief Executive, ILC-UK) and Lawrence Churchill (Trustee, ILC-UK).
Overcoming Inequalities: Addressing barriers to extending working livesILC- UK
Socio-economic inequalities continue to present challenges to the Government’s Fuller Working Lives programme, and research conducted by the ILC-UK in 2015 found that although 1.1 million people are currently working beyond state pension age, 1 million people aged 50-64 have been forced out of work through a combination of redundancy, ill health or early retirement.
This one day conference, hosted by the ILC-UK and research teams from renEWL and the Uncertain Futures consortium allowed policy makers, business leaders, civil society organisations and academics to engage with new research findings on the socio-economic inequalities preventing some sections of the population from achieving longer, fuller working lives. The conference examined the current barriers to extending working lives: health inequalities, work place practice, and the policy barriers that Government, business and civil society can work collectively to address.
Speakers included:
John Cridland, Independent Reviewer of the State Pension Age
- Professor David Armstrong, Department of Primary Care and Public Health Sciences, King's College London
- Professor Jenny Head, Professor of Medical and Social Statistics, UCL
- Prof. Sarah Vickerstaff, Professor of Work and Employment, University of Kent
- Dr Mai Stafford, renEWL
- Dr Charlotte Clark, Uncertain Futures Research Consortium
- Peter Kelly, Senior Psychologist, Health and Safety Executive
- Nicola Lee, Employment Relations Adviser, RCN
- Dr Ewan Carr, renEWL
- Professor Wendy Loretto, Uncertain Futures Research Consortium
- Patrick Thomson, Senior Programme Manager, Centre for Ageing Better
- Denise Keating, CEO, Employers Network for Equality and Inclusion
- Yvonne Sonsino, Innovation Leader, Mercer Europe and Pacific
- Dr Emily Murray, renEWL
- Professor Chris Phillipson, Uncertain Futures Research Consortium
- Russell Taylor, DWP Fuller Working Lives Team
- Caroline Abrahams, Charity Director, Age UK
- Professor Stephen Stansfeld, renEWL
- Dr Joanne Crawford, Uncertain Futures Research Consortium
- Rachael Saunders, Business in the Community
Village life: Independence, Loneliness, and Quality of Life in Retirement Vil...ILC- UK
On the 19th August, the ILC-UK held a launch event of a new research report “Village life: Independence, Loneliness, and Quality of Life in Retirement Villages with Extra Care” which considers the impact of retirement villages on independence, loneliness and quality of life of residents.
The report incorporates a survey of residents and compares the sample with a comparable group of non-residents living in private housing.
The report has been produced with the support of Bupa and Audley. Anchor provided additional survey respondents.
During the launch, Brian Beach, Research Fellow at ILC-UK, presented the findings of the research. Nick Sanderson, CEO of Audley, and Jeremy Porteus, Founder and Director or Housing LIN (Learning and Improvement Network), responded.
Maximising the potential of the UK's ageing population. Lessons from Asia and...ILC- UK
On Wednesday, 20th April 2016, the International Longevity Centre - UK and the Global Aging Institute hosted a roundtable discussion in the House of Lords on how the UK can maximise the potential of its ageing population, supported by Prudential Plc.
The discussion focused on a range of topics emerging from the Global Aging Institute's research in East Asia, including how different Asian countries address productivity challenges, changing dependency ratios, gender disparities and the changing nature of intergenerational dependence.
These topics were also considered in relation to ageing societies across Europe, at a roundtable discussion with European Commissioners held in Brussels on Thursday, 21st April 2016.
ILC-UK, New Dynamics of Ageing and the Actuarial Profession debate: Improving...ILC- UK
Telecare and telemedicine can improve health outcomes and save money, argued the Prime Minister late last year. The Whole System Demonstrator (WSD) programme was set up by the Department of Health to attempt to, amongst other things, explore the evidence base as to the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of these technologies.
The findings were striking. “If delivered properly, telehealth can substantially reduce mortality, reduce the need for admissions to hospital, lower the number of bed days spent in hospital and reduce the time spent in A&E” argued the DH.
The randomised control trial of over 6,000 patients found that if delivered properly, telehealth can deliver:
45% reduction in mortality rates
20% reduction in emergency admissions
15% reduction in A&E visits
14% reduction in elective admissions
14% reduction in bed days
8% reduction in tariff costs
Yet whilst claims about the potential of technology have been made for many years, embedding such technologies into people’s homes and lives has proved difficult.
The usability and accessibility of new technologies, the digital divide, a lack of funding for prevention, and a lack of trust and knowledge among healthcare professionals are among the many reasons why new technologies have sometimes failed to meet their potential.
At this event, Leela Damodaran, discussed how research into new technologies can help us age well and provide an overview of NDA research findings. She also highlight how we can most effectively deliver new technology.
Speakers presented the current evidence base in relation to the cost effectiveness of healthcare technologies.
ILC-UK presented findings of new work, supported by Nominet Trust, which will explore whether we can nudge people online.
As well as the debate, there were a number of Technology Showcases: Mappmal: hospitalfoodie; SomnIA; Design for Ageing Well; TACT3; Envision to envisage; Making the Kitchen Easier; NANA; Keeping Older People Connected; Safety on Stairs
Agenda from the event
15.00 – 16.30
Technology Showcases
16.30 – 16.35
Baroness Sally Greengross – Chief Executive, International Longevity Centre – UK
16.35 – 16.40
Alan Walker - Professor of Social Policy and Social Gerontology, Director of the New Dynamics
16.40 – 17.00
Mark Hawley – Professor of Health Service Research, University of Sheffield
17.00 – 17.10
Dr Nick Goodwin – Senior Fellow, Health Policy, The King’s Fund
17.10 – 17.25
Leela Damodaran – Professor of Participative Design and Change Management, Loughborough University
17.25 – 17.35
David Sinclair – Assistant Director, Research and Strategy, International Longevity Centre – UK
17.35 – 18.25
Discussion and Debate
18.25 – 18.30
Close - Baroness Sally Greengross – Chief Executive, International Longevity Centre – UK
18:30
Refreshments/Networki
New analysis shows 60s who join a gym more likely to join a religious group
The ILC-UK's longitudinal analysis also found that over 60s who join a political party are also significantly more likely to join a religious group like a church, synagogue or mosque.
02Nov15 - Drink Wise Age Well programme launchILC- UK
On the 2nd November 2015, ILC-UK held a panel discussion to launch the Drink Wise, Age Well programme.
The event brought together important stakeholders to discuss the growing problem of alcohol misuse in the over 50s population of the UK. Supported by the Big Lottery Fund, Drink Wise, Age Well brings together 6 strategic partners; Addaction, the Royal Voluntary Service, International Longevity Centre UK, Drugs and Alcohol Charities Wales, Addiction Northern Ireland and the University of Bedfordshire.
With at least 20% of over 50s in the UK exceeding recommended alcohol units, and alcohol related harms significantly increasing in this age group, Drink Wise, Age Well will aim to create a healthier relationship with alcohol for the overs 50s population through a preventative approach.
As part of our programme evaluation we have recently carried out a survey of drinking behaviour in people aged 50 and over which more than 17,000 people completed.
Joining our panel to discuss this important and growing issue were:
- Simon Antrobus, CEO, Addaction (Chair)
- Don Lavoie, Alcohol Programme Manager, Alcohol Team, Public Health England
- Dr Sarah Wadd, Director, Substance misuse and Ageing Research Team at the Tilda Goldberg Centre, University of Bedfordshire
- Professor José Iparraguirre, Chief Economist, Age UK
- Dr Kieran Moriarty, Consultant Physician and Gastroenterologist, Bolton NHS FT
ILC-UK Future of Ageing Presentation Slides - 09Nov16 ILC- UK
On Wednesday 9th November 2016, ILC-UK held it's second annual future of Ageing conference.
We welcomed over 180 delegates made up of business leaders; charity sector experts; public sector decision makers; local authority staff; academics; and senior journalists.
The one day conference was chaired by Baroness Slly Greengross OBE and Lawrence Churchill CBE, and we heard from the following speakers:
- Dr Islene Araujo de Carvalho, Senior Policy and Strategy Adviser, Department of Ageing and Life Course, WHO
- John Cridland CBE, Head of the Independent State Pension Age Review
- The Rt Rev. and the Rt Hon. the Lord Carey of Clifton, Archbishop of Canterbury 1991-2002
- Ben Franklin, Head of Economics of an Ageing Society, ILC-UK
- Professor Sarah Harper, Director, Oxford Institute of Population Ageing
- Dwayne Johnson, Director of Social Care and Health at Sefton Metropolitan Borough Council
- Dr Margaret McCartney, Author and Broadcaster
- John Pullinger CB, National Statistician, UK Statistics Authority
- David Sinclair, Director, ILC-UK
- Jonathan Stevens, Senior Vice President, Thought Leadership, AARP
- Linda Woodall, Director of Life Insurance and Financial Advice, and sponsor of the Ageing Population project, Financial Conduct Authority
10Apr14 - Ensuring communities offer what older people wantILC- UK
This seminar was held on Thursday 10th April 2014, 13:30 (for 14:00) – 17:00 on the topic is ‘Ensuring communities offer what older people want’, and focussed on the activities and interests of older people that need to be represented in our communities to ensure good quality of life and wellbeing for an ageing population. The results of these seminars will inform a solutions-focussed policy brief, looking at what needs to be done to create age-ready local areas. This brief will be launched in May at a full day conference on ageing in our communities.
In this seminar we considered what communities provide for older people and how these needs may change (or stay the same) as they age. We know from research on isolation and loneliness that social connections remain an important part of quality of life for many people as they get older, yet as the ‘loneliness epidemic’ continues to hit headlines it is clear that this is not being fully addressed in communities. Exploring how activities and services can maintain and build on social networks is key to maintaining wellbeing within the community.
Elsewhere, we explored the services, amenities and activities available to older people in their communities – from village shops, to post offices, to libraries and adult education classes, and how these enhance wellbeing for older people. A community can take many forms, and in this session we will also be considering the approaches to be taken from different kinds of setting – from urban to rural – and the challenges that lie in providing services to these distinct regions.
This seminar explored:
• How family connections, friendships and social ties can be supported and better integrated into community activities.
• What role do local services and shops play in building a community, what the future of these services looks like and what can be done to ensure they support ageing in the community?
• What activities are currently available for older people in their communities, and are these suitable or prepared for an increasing number of people accessing them? What else should be available?
• How we can ensure that fun and playfulness remain part of life when growing older in the community?
• How can we ensure that the experience of growing older remains at its highest quality across rural, town, suburban, and urban settings?
Launched in the House of Lords on Thursday, 13th July 2017, this report, produced by ILC-UK with the support of Royal London, finds that those who received financial advice in the 2001-2007 period had accumulated significantly more liquid financial assets and pension wealth than their unadvised equivalent peers by 2012-14.
We held an event to launch SOS 2020, supported by Aviva and Ernst and Young. This event was kindly sponsored by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA).
Last week the OBR Fiscal Sustainability Report noted that "public finances are likely to come under pressure over the longer term, primarily as the result of an ageing population. Under our definition of unchanged policy, the Government would end up having to spend more as a share of national income on age-related items such as pensions and health care, but the same demographic trends would leave government revenues roughly stable."
But whilst there is greater awareness of the fiscal challenges of ageing, there has been little progress in addressing an overarching plan to address the challenges. ILC-UK is launching SOS 2020 to begin to identify costed solutions to the fiscal challenges of ageing.
The House of Lords Select Committee on Public Service and Demographic Change, in its 2013 report “Ready for Ageing”, began by saying “the UK population is ageing rapidly, but we have concluded that the Government and our society are woefully underprepared.”
SOS 2020 is a major new programme of work led by ILC-UK which will raise awareness of the need to adapt our economy and society to the big strategic challenges posed by an ageing population.
SOS 2020 will outline the specific policy measures needed to achieve this goal. It will illuminate the issues that face us and develop fully considered and costed solutions that will act as a “call to action” to policy-makers and politicians. Above all SOS 2020 aims to raise national and international awareness of problems and possible solutions in which we all have a vested interest.
In an increasingly interdependent world, there is a need to look beyond national shores for arguably collective consensus and joint solutions. SOS 2020 will give us the opportunity to do this.
ILC-UK launched SOS 2020 with specific projects exploring retirement income sustainability and healthcare sustainability.
This launch event gave delegates an opportunity to feed in their thoughts on how to ensure our public policy maximises the opportunities of our ageing society.
Nudge or Compel? Can behavioural economics tackle the digital exclusion of ol...ILC- UK
On the 29th November 2012, ILC-UK held the launch of a new report: ‘Nudge or Compel? Can behavioural economics tackle the digital exclusion of older people?’. This report, kindly supported by Nominet Trust, examines the factors which affect why older people do not get online, concentrating on behavioural choice. The launch was hosted by the Communications Consumer Panel.
Close to eight million adults in the UK have never used the internet, with the vast majority being older people. Over two fifths of those who have never been online are over 75. Previous work from ILC-UK has drawn attention to the nuances in why this digital divide continues; reporting in 2011 that for digital exclusion, factors such as psychological issues ‘appear to be more influential than material factors such as cost or lack of physical infrastructure’.
Within the last decade a strong policy trend has developed with the use of behavioural economics. Explored by Thaler and Sunstein in Nudge, this theory has been used in the development of programmes such as automatic enrolment in occupational pensions.
The introduction of the ‘digital by default’ agenda is likely to eventually result in reducing the alternative options for accessing public services and information. While resources have been funnelled into projects aiming to getting those not online connected, concerns have been raised that people who are disinclined to use the internet will be left without support and excluded from information and services.
During this event we heard from a number of experts in this area and approached the following questions:
-What potential is there for behavioural economics to ‘nudge’ people online?
-Has media literacy failed?
-Should we make more public services available exclusively online?
-How can we ensure that the digital by default agenda supports people to get online?
- How can we use digital technology in imaginative ways to re-think the challenges facing people in later life?
08May14 - Community Matters: Are our communities ready for ageing?ILC- UK
As the population ages, an increasing number of people will be growing older and continuing to live in communities around the country. Many of our communities are ill-prepared for both the varying needs of older people ageing in place and the future increase in numbers of older people who will need appropriate housing, transport and services. The local elections in May also bring these issues into focus for elected representatives who will be seeking to prepare their areas for these challenges and give the best opportunities for good ageing to their constituents.
At this event we heard results of a series of three solutions-focussed policy discussions held by ILC-UK and Age UK. These discussions have looked at three distinct aspects of communities – from living at home, to getting out and about and the activities and amenities available (or missing) in our communities. We will be discussing a forthcoming report summarising the fresh thinking and practical suggestions for policy makers, local government and community groups gathered from these sessions.
The conference also included sessions on research and information on this topic, and what needs to be done to take action in our communities. All sessions will feature opportunities for attendees to participate in the discussion and add their views on where priorities for action should be focussed.
On the 24th November 2015, we held our first annual conference on 'The Future of Ageing'.
During this full day conference we painted a picture of the future of ageing and explored the challenges and opportunities ahead. Through our unique lifecourse focus we explored the potential impact of ageing not just on today’s older population, but also on tomorrows.
We heard presentations from:
- Steven Baxter (Partner, Hymans Robertson);
- Lord Filkin (Chair of the Centre for Ageing Better and Chair of the House of Lords Committee on Public Service and Demographic Change);
- Lord Willetts (Executive Chair at Resolution Foundation, and former Minister of State [Department for Business, Innovation and Skills]);
- Paul Johnson (Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies);
- Baroness Altmann (Minister for Pensions);
- Professor Jane Elliott (Chief Executive, Economic and Social Research Council);
- Professor Sir Mark Walport (Government Chief Scientific Adviser [GCSA] and Head of the Government Office for Science);
- Jim Boyd (Director of Corporate Affairs, Partnership);
- Elaine Draper (Director, Accessibility & Inclusion, Barclays);
- Mario Ambrosi (Head of Communications and Public Affairs, Anchor);
- Baroness Kay Andrews (Member of the House of Lords Built Environment Committee, Former Parliamentary Under-Secretary (Department for Communities and Local Government) 2006-2009);
- Professor Ian Philp (Deputy Medical Director for Older People’s Care, Heart of England NHS Foundation Trust).
The conference was chaired by Baroness Sally Greengross (Chief Executive, ILC-UK) and Lawrence Churchill (Trustee, ILC-UK).
Overcoming Inequalities: Addressing barriers to extending working livesILC- UK
Socio-economic inequalities continue to present challenges to the Government’s Fuller Working Lives programme, and research conducted by the ILC-UK in 2015 found that although 1.1 million people are currently working beyond state pension age, 1 million people aged 50-64 have been forced out of work through a combination of redundancy, ill health or early retirement.
This one day conference, hosted by the ILC-UK and research teams from renEWL and the Uncertain Futures consortium allowed policy makers, business leaders, civil society organisations and academics to engage with new research findings on the socio-economic inequalities preventing some sections of the population from achieving longer, fuller working lives. The conference examined the current barriers to extending working lives: health inequalities, work place practice, and the policy barriers that Government, business and civil society can work collectively to address.
Speakers included:
John Cridland, Independent Reviewer of the State Pension Age
- Professor David Armstrong, Department of Primary Care and Public Health Sciences, King's College London
- Professor Jenny Head, Professor of Medical and Social Statistics, UCL
- Prof. Sarah Vickerstaff, Professor of Work and Employment, University of Kent
- Dr Mai Stafford, renEWL
- Dr Charlotte Clark, Uncertain Futures Research Consortium
- Peter Kelly, Senior Psychologist, Health and Safety Executive
- Nicola Lee, Employment Relations Adviser, RCN
- Dr Ewan Carr, renEWL
- Professor Wendy Loretto, Uncertain Futures Research Consortium
- Patrick Thomson, Senior Programme Manager, Centre for Ageing Better
- Denise Keating, CEO, Employers Network for Equality and Inclusion
- Yvonne Sonsino, Innovation Leader, Mercer Europe and Pacific
- Dr Emily Murray, renEWL
- Professor Chris Phillipson, Uncertain Futures Research Consortium
- Russell Taylor, DWP Fuller Working Lives Team
- Caroline Abrahams, Charity Director, Age UK
- Professor Stephen Stansfeld, renEWL
- Dr Joanne Crawford, Uncertain Futures Research Consortium
- Rachael Saunders, Business in the Community
Village life: Independence, Loneliness, and Quality of Life in Retirement Vil...ILC- UK
On the 19th August, the ILC-UK held a launch event of a new research report “Village life: Independence, Loneliness, and Quality of Life in Retirement Villages with Extra Care” which considers the impact of retirement villages on independence, loneliness and quality of life of residents.
The report incorporates a survey of residents and compares the sample with a comparable group of non-residents living in private housing.
The report has been produced with the support of Bupa and Audley. Anchor provided additional survey respondents.
During the launch, Brian Beach, Research Fellow at ILC-UK, presented the findings of the research. Nick Sanderson, CEO of Audley, and Jeremy Porteus, Founder and Director or Housing LIN (Learning and Improvement Network), responded.
Maximising the potential of the UK's ageing population. Lessons from Asia and...ILC- UK
On Wednesday, 20th April 2016, the International Longevity Centre - UK and the Global Aging Institute hosted a roundtable discussion in the House of Lords on how the UK can maximise the potential of its ageing population, supported by Prudential Plc.
The discussion focused on a range of topics emerging from the Global Aging Institute's research in East Asia, including how different Asian countries address productivity challenges, changing dependency ratios, gender disparities and the changing nature of intergenerational dependence.
These topics were also considered in relation to ageing societies across Europe, at a roundtable discussion with European Commissioners held in Brussels on Thursday, 21st April 2016.
ILC-UK, New Dynamics of Ageing and the Actuarial Profession debate: Improving...ILC- UK
Telecare and telemedicine can improve health outcomes and save money, argued the Prime Minister late last year. The Whole System Demonstrator (WSD) programme was set up by the Department of Health to attempt to, amongst other things, explore the evidence base as to the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of these technologies.
The findings were striking. “If delivered properly, telehealth can substantially reduce mortality, reduce the need for admissions to hospital, lower the number of bed days spent in hospital and reduce the time spent in A&E” argued the DH.
The randomised control trial of over 6,000 patients found that if delivered properly, telehealth can deliver:
45% reduction in mortality rates
20% reduction in emergency admissions
15% reduction in A&E visits
14% reduction in elective admissions
14% reduction in bed days
8% reduction in tariff costs
Yet whilst claims about the potential of technology have been made for many years, embedding such technologies into people’s homes and lives has proved difficult.
The usability and accessibility of new technologies, the digital divide, a lack of funding for prevention, and a lack of trust and knowledge among healthcare professionals are among the many reasons why new technologies have sometimes failed to meet their potential.
At this event, Leela Damodaran, discussed how research into new technologies can help us age well and provide an overview of NDA research findings. She also highlight how we can most effectively deliver new technology.
Speakers presented the current evidence base in relation to the cost effectiveness of healthcare technologies.
ILC-UK presented findings of new work, supported by Nominet Trust, which will explore whether we can nudge people online.
As well as the debate, there were a number of Technology Showcases: Mappmal: hospitalfoodie; SomnIA; Design for Ageing Well; TACT3; Envision to envisage; Making the Kitchen Easier; NANA; Keeping Older People Connected; Safety on Stairs
Agenda from the event
15.00 – 16.30
Technology Showcases
16.30 – 16.35
Baroness Sally Greengross – Chief Executive, International Longevity Centre – UK
16.35 – 16.40
Alan Walker - Professor of Social Policy and Social Gerontology, Director of the New Dynamics
16.40 – 17.00
Mark Hawley – Professor of Health Service Research, University of Sheffield
17.00 – 17.10
Dr Nick Goodwin – Senior Fellow, Health Policy, The King’s Fund
17.10 – 17.25
Leela Damodaran – Professor of Participative Design and Change Management, Loughborough University
17.25 – 17.35
David Sinclair – Assistant Director, Research and Strategy, International Longevity Centre – UK
17.35 – 18.25
Discussion and Debate
18.25 – 18.30
Close - Baroness Sally Greengross – Chief Executive, International Longevity Centre – UK
18:30
Refreshments/Networki
New analysis shows 60s who join a gym more likely to join a religious group
The ILC-UK's longitudinal analysis also found that over 60s who join a political party are also significantly more likely to join a religious group like a church, synagogue or mosque.
02Nov15 - Drink Wise Age Well programme launchILC- UK
On the 2nd November 2015, ILC-UK held a panel discussion to launch the Drink Wise, Age Well programme.
The event brought together important stakeholders to discuss the growing problem of alcohol misuse in the over 50s population of the UK. Supported by the Big Lottery Fund, Drink Wise, Age Well brings together 6 strategic partners; Addaction, the Royal Voluntary Service, International Longevity Centre UK, Drugs and Alcohol Charities Wales, Addiction Northern Ireland and the University of Bedfordshire.
With at least 20% of over 50s in the UK exceeding recommended alcohol units, and alcohol related harms significantly increasing in this age group, Drink Wise, Age Well will aim to create a healthier relationship with alcohol for the overs 50s population through a preventative approach.
As part of our programme evaluation we have recently carried out a survey of drinking behaviour in people aged 50 and over which more than 17,000 people completed.
Joining our panel to discuss this important and growing issue were:
- Simon Antrobus, CEO, Addaction (Chair)
- Don Lavoie, Alcohol Programme Manager, Alcohol Team, Public Health England
- Dr Sarah Wadd, Director, Substance misuse and Ageing Research Team at the Tilda Goldberg Centre, University of Bedfordshire
- Professor José Iparraguirre, Chief Economist, Age UK
- Dr Kieran Moriarty, Consultant Physician and Gastroenterologist, Bolton NHS FT
ILC-UK Future of Ageing Presentation Slides - 09Nov16 ILC- UK
On Wednesday 9th November 2016, ILC-UK held it's second annual future of Ageing conference.
We welcomed over 180 delegates made up of business leaders; charity sector experts; public sector decision makers; local authority staff; academics; and senior journalists.
The one day conference was chaired by Baroness Slly Greengross OBE and Lawrence Churchill CBE, and we heard from the following speakers:
- Dr Islene Araujo de Carvalho, Senior Policy and Strategy Adviser, Department of Ageing and Life Course, WHO
- John Cridland CBE, Head of the Independent State Pension Age Review
- The Rt Rev. and the Rt Hon. the Lord Carey of Clifton, Archbishop of Canterbury 1991-2002
- Ben Franklin, Head of Economics of an Ageing Society, ILC-UK
- Professor Sarah Harper, Director, Oxford Institute of Population Ageing
- Dwayne Johnson, Director of Social Care and Health at Sefton Metropolitan Borough Council
- Dr Margaret McCartney, Author and Broadcaster
- John Pullinger CB, National Statistician, UK Statistics Authority
- David Sinclair, Director, ILC-UK
- Jonathan Stevens, Senior Vice President, Thought Leadership, AARP
- Linda Woodall, Director of Life Insurance and Financial Advice, and sponsor of the Ageing Population project, Financial Conduct Authority
10Apr14 - Ensuring communities offer what older people wantILC- UK
This seminar was held on Thursday 10th April 2014, 13:30 (for 14:00) – 17:00 on the topic is ‘Ensuring communities offer what older people want’, and focussed on the activities and interests of older people that need to be represented in our communities to ensure good quality of life and wellbeing for an ageing population. The results of these seminars will inform a solutions-focussed policy brief, looking at what needs to be done to create age-ready local areas. This brief will be launched in May at a full day conference on ageing in our communities.
In this seminar we considered what communities provide for older people and how these needs may change (or stay the same) as they age. We know from research on isolation and loneliness that social connections remain an important part of quality of life for many people as they get older, yet as the ‘loneliness epidemic’ continues to hit headlines it is clear that this is not being fully addressed in communities. Exploring how activities and services can maintain and build on social networks is key to maintaining wellbeing within the community.
Elsewhere, we explored the services, amenities and activities available to older people in their communities – from village shops, to post offices, to libraries and adult education classes, and how these enhance wellbeing for older people. A community can take many forms, and in this session we will also be considering the approaches to be taken from different kinds of setting – from urban to rural – and the challenges that lie in providing services to these distinct regions.
This seminar explored:
• How family connections, friendships and social ties can be supported and better integrated into community activities.
• What role do local services and shops play in building a community, what the future of these services looks like and what can be done to ensure they support ageing in the community?
• What activities are currently available for older people in their communities, and are these suitable or prepared for an increasing number of people accessing them? What else should be available?
• How we can ensure that fun and playfulness remain part of life when growing older in the community?
• How can we ensure that the experience of growing older remains at its highest quality across rural, town, suburban, and urban settings?
Launched in the House of Lords on Thursday, 13th July 2017, this report, produced by ILC-UK with the support of Royal London, finds that those who received financial advice in the 2001-2007 period had accumulated significantly more liquid financial assets and pension wealth than their unadvised equivalent peers by 2012-14.
We held an event to launch SOS 2020, supported by Aviva and Ernst and Young. This event was kindly sponsored by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA).
Last week the OBR Fiscal Sustainability Report noted that "public finances are likely to come under pressure over the longer term, primarily as the result of an ageing population. Under our definition of unchanged policy, the Government would end up having to spend more as a share of national income on age-related items such as pensions and health care, but the same demographic trends would leave government revenues roughly stable."
But whilst there is greater awareness of the fiscal challenges of ageing, there has been little progress in addressing an overarching plan to address the challenges. ILC-UK is launching SOS 2020 to begin to identify costed solutions to the fiscal challenges of ageing.
The House of Lords Select Committee on Public Service and Demographic Change, in its 2013 report “Ready for Ageing”, began by saying “the UK population is ageing rapidly, but we have concluded that the Government and our society are woefully underprepared.”
SOS 2020 is a major new programme of work led by ILC-UK which will raise awareness of the need to adapt our economy and society to the big strategic challenges posed by an ageing population.
SOS 2020 will outline the specific policy measures needed to achieve this goal. It will illuminate the issues that face us and develop fully considered and costed solutions that will act as a “call to action” to policy-makers and politicians. Above all SOS 2020 aims to raise national and international awareness of problems and possible solutions in which we all have a vested interest.
In an increasingly interdependent world, there is a need to look beyond national shores for arguably collective consensus and joint solutions. SOS 2020 will give us the opportunity to do this.
ILC-UK launched SOS 2020 with specific projects exploring retirement income sustainability and healthcare sustainability.
This launch event gave delegates an opportunity to feed in their thoughts on how to ensure our public policy maximises the opportunities of our ageing society.
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Presentation by David Sinclair at the British Geriatric Society conference in Belfast in April 2013 which explores the challenges and opportunities of an ageing society.
How should policymakers respond to the new challenges and opportunities of ag...ILC- UK
Presentation by David Sinclair, Assistant Director of Policy and Communications at ILC-UK, at 'New perspectives on population ageing in Scotland', 4 November 2013 14.00-17.00 as part of the ESRC Festival of Social Science http://www.esrc.ac.uk/news-and-events/events/festival/festival-events/specific-2013/population-ageing.aspx
David Sinclair addressing the Foundation Conference http://www.foundations.uk.com/events/hia-annual-conference/annual-conference-2012/conference-2012-programme-overview/ with findings from the recent ILC-UK report: 'Is Social Exclusion still important for Older People?', available at: http://www.ilcuk.org.uk/index.php/publications/publication_details/is_social_exclusion_still_important_for_older_people
David Sinclair, ILC-UK's Director, presented at the Age Platform Annual Conference in Brussels in December 2014.
For more information about the conference, please click here:
http://www.age-platform.eu/age-work/age-policy-work/age-friendly-environments/age-work/2300-age-annual-conference-4-december-2014-brussels
Presentation slides from the ILC-UK 'What is retirmeent really like?' launch event on the 1st December 2015.
Building on ILC-UK’s extensive work on older consumers and on retirement income, this major research report assesses the differences between theory or popular belief about retirement and the reality of it.
The report considers how spending varies during old age and challenges pre-existing stereotypes about retired life which can be misleading and may contribute to poor planning or unrealistic expectations. This report, which incorporates new quantitative analysis and the feedback from 3 expert focus groups, will explore the role for policymakers and industry in helping us retire well.
At an event hosted by the Royal College of Nursing on the 19th November, ILC-UK launched a new report on adult immunisation. We also presented findings of major new research on adult immunisation across Europe which was published by the SAATI coalition in November 2013. The debate considered the findings of the research and explored how policymakers should respond to the challenges highlighted in the new reports.
The report on adult immunisation, 'Immune Response', has been funded through an unrestricted educational grant from Pfizer International Operations.
Download 'Immune Response' here:
http://www.ilcuk.org.uk/index.php/publications/publication_details/immune_response._adult_immunisation_in_the_uk
Brian Beach, Research Fellow at ILC-UK, gave a presentation on ‘The opportunities and challenges of an older workforce’ at the launch event for the Research on Extending Working Lives (renEWL) programme at University College London on 16 July.
Adult Vaccination in an ageing society: Immune responseILC- UK
Highlights the importance of vaccinating older people in the context of an ageing society. Sets out how levels of uptake vary across Europe. And highlights ideas for policy makers on how to increase uptake of adult vaccination
David Sinclair on the challenges of vaccinating adultsILC- UK
Presented at the IFA Champions Summit in early November, Director of the International Longevity Centre - UK, David Sinclair, considers the challenges and solutions to vaccinating adults.
02May14 - The demographic implications of Scottish independenceILC- UK
During 2014, ILC-UK, supported by the specialist insurance company, Partnership Assurance Group plc, is undertaking a series of events to explore the relationship between our changing demography and public policy.
The third event in the series explored the demographic implications of Scottish independence.
In 2014, Scotland will vote in an independence referendum which could significantly change its relationship with the rest of the United Kingdom. An independent Scotland would have a fully independent NHS, control a significant proportion of the North Sea oil reserves and will take on a percentage of the UK national debt.
An independent Scotland would also result in the UK having a new demographic makeup. There are currently a number of marked differences between the two countries which will be highlighted by the division. These include a 2.8 year gap in healthy life expectancy for men, as well as differences in overall life expectancy and mortality rates. Recent figures released by the ONS suggest that the future health of an independent Scotland may actually align with that of the UK. The number of children aged two to 15 either overweight or obese in Scotland is now equal to that of England (30%), and lower than Wales (36%), and Scottish men are significantly more active than their counterparts in both countries.
The seminar explored these differences, as well as how the demography of an independent Scotland may change over time, and what future Scottish Governments (with or without independence) may need to do to adapt to these demographic changes.
Scottish independence would have a number of age-related policy implications for both Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom. The issue of Scotland’s ageing population has already entered political debate, with the SNP announcing that, if elected, they would make new pensioners £4.40 a month better off than in England, while also pledging to set up a commission looking at the state pension age. The Scottish government has also announced that benefits, tax credits and state pensions would continue to be paid from the first day of independence, but have not addressed how they will meet the challenge of moving schemes from one administration to another.
The 4th April 2016 marks ten years to the day after the final report of the Pension Commission. The Pensions Commission painted a future where individuals would need to do a combination of working longer, saving more, or paying more tax. The Commission argued that a failure to act would lead to poorer pensioners.
This ILC-UK analysis highlights positive progress in extending working lives, preventing pensioner poverty and getting more people into saving. But the think tank warns of complacency and paints a bleak picture for future pensioners.
This analysis, published on its website finds that since the Pensions Commission:
* The average age of exit from the labour force is increasing but it is still below what it was in the 1960s and 1970s.
* In fact, the average time spent in retirement continues to increase.
* Auto-enrolment has delivered a growing number of employees with workplace pensions.
* But median contribution rates are low and a growing proportion of us have no savings. Final Salary pension coverage continues to fall.
* Younger people are less well placed than previous generations to save and may attract lower long term returns on their savings.
* Effective tax rates have been falling but have increased more recently.
* Spending on pensioner benefits slightly above the long run average as a percentage of GDP
Throughout 2014, ILC-UK, supported by specialist insurance company, Partnership Assurance Group plc, is undertaking a series of events to explore the relationship between our changing demography and public policy.
The fourth event in this 'Population Patterns Seminar Series' considered the findings of our ‘Factpack’ of UK demographic statistics.
We all know that people are living longer but how is that likely to change our society? How will pensions be affected? How will we care for our growing older society when the traditional “working age” population is shrinking?
These types of debates are increasingly being played out in the media and in political circles but in order for such debates to be productive, they have to be well informed.
ILC-UK believes its 2014 ‘Factpack’ will support this process by highlighting the most recent evidence of our rapidly ageing society. Not only does it provide statistics on a range of critical topics from life expectancy to housing supply; and pensions to long-term care, it also includes a special focus on the current and potential future state of pensioner poverty.
The event was chaired by Baroness Sally Greengross (ILC-UK) with a welcome from Steve Haberman (Dean of the Cass Business School). We were delighted that Gregg McClymont MP, Shadow Minister (Work and Pensions), spoke at at the launch event. We also heard presentations from Professor Les Mayhew (Professor of Statistics, Cass Business School), Steve Groves (Chief Executive of Partnership), Ben Franklin (Research Fellow at ILC-UK) and a response from Tom Younger of the Department for Work and Pensions.
During the discussion we explored:
How the UK’s demography has changed since the release of the 2013 Factpack and how it might change in the future,
How demographic change is reshaping our society,
The challenge of pensioner poverty,
Regional variations in the experiences of older people,
How policy makers should respond to these findings.
Agenda
16:00 - 16:30 Registration
16:30 - 16:35 Welcome by Chair, Baroness Sally Greengross (ILC-UK)
16:35 - 16:40 Welcome by the Dean of Cass Business School, Professor Stete Habberman
16:40 - 16:50 Presentation from Richard Willets (Partnership)
16:50 - 17:10 Presentation from Gregg McClymont MP (Shadow Minister for Work and Pensions)
17:10 - 17:20 Presentation from Ben Franklin (ILC-UK)
17:20 - 17:30 Presentation from Professor Les Mayhew (Cass Business School) Presentation
17:30 - 17:35 Response from Tom Younger (Department for Work and Pensions)
17:35 - 18:25 Discussion/Q&A
18:25 - 18:30 Close by Chair, Baroness Sally Greengross (ILC-UK)
18:30 - 19:15 Drinks reception
ILC-UK/Actuarial Profession Robert Butler Memorial Lecture, in partnership wi...ILC- UK
A memorial lecture and debate on Centenarians and the Oldest Old
The ILC-UK was saddened last summer, by the loss of Dr. Robert N. Butler, founder of the first International Longevity Centre in the United States and Pulitzer prize-winning gerontologist. His invaluable contribution has changed the approach and research on ageing and longevity.
In tribute to Dr Butler, ILC-UK organised a memorial lecture and debate, in partnership with Age UK and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, on Centenarians and the Oldest Old.
In 1911 there were just 100 Centenarians living in England and Wales, a figure which grew to 9,000 people in 2006 and represented a 90-fold increase over the previous 100 years (Dini and Goldring. 2008). There was a fourteen-fold increase in male centenarians and a 23-fold increase in female centenarians over the last 50 years of the twentieth century (Dini and Goldring. 2008).
The number of people aged over 100 is expected to nearly double between 2030 and 2035, when it is projected there will be 97,300 centenarians in the UK. It is then expected to more than double again during the next decade, to stand at 202,100 by 2045. (DWP/ONS December 2010).
The ONS estimates that by 2066 there will be at least 507,000 people in the UK aged 100 or over, including 7,700 super centenarians who are aged 110 or over. By 2080, there may be 626,900 people aged over 100. 21,000 of these will be over 110. (DWP/ONS December 2010).
Even the conservative estimates for the growth in the number of the oldest old will have a significant impact on services. Yet whilst policy makers seem aware of the growth in the number of people living to 100, there has been little or no explicit exploration about the impact of the growth in numbers of oldest old on public policy.
Professor Tom Kirkwood, Associate Dean for Ageing at Newcastle University gave the Lecture. The ILC-UK presented early findings of work for Age UK on the oldest old.
Agenda from the event:
16:30 – 16.35
Welcome and introduction from chair Baroness Sally Greengross, Chief Executive, International Longevity Centre – UK
16.35 – 17.20
The Robert Butler Memorial Lecture by Professor Tom Kirkwood, Associate Dean for Ageing at Newcastle University. For a copy of Professor Kirkwood's slides please email events@ilcuk.org.uk
17.20 – 17.30
Centenarians and the Oldest Old, ILC-UK
David Sinclair
17.30 - 17.35
A personal contribution on the life of a Centenarian
Noreen Siba
17.35 – 17.45
First telegram at 110? The implications of longevity
Dr Matthew Norton
17.45 – 17.55
'What older people want and value in life?' Joseph Rowntree Foundation
Ilona Haslewood
17.55 – 18.25
Panel and Audience Debate
18.25 - 18.30
Close
This presentation was prepared for a lunch meeting of the Rotary Club of Dryden, Ontario as part of the RTO/ERO October, Engage: End Isolation Campaign.
Global launch of the Healthy Ageing and Prevention Index 2nd wave – alongside...ILC- UK
The Healthy Ageing and Prevention Index is an online tool created by ILC that ranks countries on six metrics including, life span, health span, work span, income, environmental performance, and happiness. The Index helps us understand how well countries have adapted to longevity and inform decision makers on what must be done to maximise the economic benefits that comes with living well for longer.
Alongside the 77th World Health Assembly in Geneva on 28 May 2024, we launched the second version of our Index, allowing us to track progress and give new insights into what needs to be done to keep populations healthier for longer.
The speakers included:
Professor Orazio Schillaci, Minister of Health, Italy
Dr Hans Groth, Chairman of the Board, World Demographic & Ageing Forum
Professor Ilona Kickbusch, Founder and Chair, Global Health Centre, Geneva Graduate Institute and co-chair, World Health Summit Council
Dr Natasha Azzopardi Muscat, Director, Country Health Policies and Systems Division, World Health Organisation EURO
Dr Marta Lomazzi, Executive Manager, World Federation of Public Health Associations
Dr Shyam Bishen, Head, Centre for Health and Healthcare and Member of the Executive Committee, World Economic Forum
Dr Karin Tegmark Wisell, Director General, Public Health Agency of Sweden
Redefining lifelong learning webinar presentation slides.pptxILC- UK
We know that we’re living longer, which means many people will also be working for longer. One in seven people over 65 are still employed in the UK, but we’re still seeing challenges in our labour markets.
According to the ILC’s Healthy Ageing and Prevention Index, the UK’s work span is only 31.5 years, ranking the UK 47th out of 121 countries. Skills shortages driven by demographic change are hitting all sectors of the UK’s economy: by 2030, we could see a shortage of 2.6 million workers. On the other hand, if UK employment rates for those aged 50 to 64 matched the rates of those aged 35 to 49, the country’s GDP would increase by more than 5%.
One way to improve work span and employment is through lifelong learning. However, in the UK, as the Learning and Work Institute’s Adult Participation in Learning survey showed, rates of learning continue to fall with age. In 2023, only 36% of people aged 55 to 64, 24% of those aged 65 to 74, and 17% of those aged 75 and over said that they’d taken part in any kind of learning in the past three years.
To better understand the approaches in other countries, we consulted with experts in lifelong learning, both from the UK and globally. ILC's report, in collaboration with Phoenix Insights, Redefining lifelong learning: lessons from across the globe considers the approaches taken in Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden. While each country’s approach is different, and shaped by its wider cultural, political and economic context, there are some common threads including: learning culture; the range of learning opportunities on offer; levels of support and investment; and accessibility
"If only I had"... LV= insights into retirement planning webinarILC- UK
As part of this debate LV= shares the findings from their quarterly Wealth and Wellbeing research programme, which surveys a nationally representative sample of 4,000 adults across the UK on a variety of topics, including their changing attitude to their finances and their wider wellbeing.
Healthy Ageing and Prevention Index - Our impactILC- UK
This year, ILC-UK launched the Healthy Ageing and Prevention Index. This slide deck summarizes what we’ve achieved so far and sets out our plans for 2024 to continue to shape the agenda on global health.
Alongside the G20 Health Ministers’ meeting in Gandhinagar, India, in August, ILC-India and ILC-UK held a joint high-level side event to amplify the importance of healthy ageing and prevention among the G20.
Plugging the gap: Estimating the demand and supply of jobs by sector in 2030ILC- UK
The UK economy could see a shortfall of 2.6 million workers by 2030 – almost twice the workforce of the NHS – as a result of population ageing, the COVID pandemic and Brexit.
These shortfalls will affect the whole economy, with manufacturing, retail, construction, transport, health and social care among the sectors projected to be hardest hit.
To plug these gaps, Government must introduce a comprehensive Workforce Strategy looking at:
How to support people to stay in the workforce for longer, e.g. by supporting healthy workplaces, supporting carers and creating flexible conditions that suit people’s needs.
How to ameliorate childcare costs and reintegrate people into the workforce following timeout for caring or a health need
The role of migration and automation in addressing major workforce gaps
Leaving no one behind: Progress on Life Course Immunisation Roundtable – alon...ILC- UK
Leaving no one behind: Progress on Life Course Immunisation Roundtable – alongside the World Health Assembly
Date: Tuesday 23 May 2023
Time: 13.00 – 14.30 (CET), followed by refreshments
Location: Geneva Press Club, Geneva, Switzerland
Global launch of the Healthy Ageing and Prevention Index alongside the 76th World Health Assembly
Date: Tuesday 23 May 2023
Time: 3.30pm – 4.30pm (CET) launch, followed by networking with refreshments
Location: Geneva Press Club, Geneva, Switzerland
G7 high-level side event in Niigata: Healthy ageing and prevention
Date: Wednesday 10 May 2023
Time: 2.00pm – 3.30pm (JST), followed by networking with refreshments
Location: Niigata, Japan
Vaccine confidence in Central and Eastern Europe working lunchILC- UK
At this exclusive working lunch, we discussed the International Longevity Centre UK’s (ILC-UK) forthcoming report on vaccine confidence in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE).
During this event, we shared the findings from our policy publication on what we think should be the priorities for the G20 in India and the key messages we want to disseminate to ministers and world leaders. We heard from experts on the opportunities and challenges to engage India and the G20 with prevention and healthy ageing and identify further opportunities to maximise our engagement while at the G20 in September.
Final Marathon or sprint launch Les Mayhew slides 19 April.pptxILC- UK
Research by the International Longevity Centre UK (ILC) funded by Bayes Business School — based on Commonwealth Games competitor records since the inaugural event in 1930 — shows large differences in the longevity of medal winners compared to people in the general population that were born in the same year. A report finds that top-level sports people can live over 5 years longer than the rest of the population.
Launching Trial and error: Supporting age diversity in clinical trialsILC- UK
During this virtual event, Esther McNamara, ILC's Senior Health Policy Lead, presents the Trial and error report’s findings and recommendations. A panel of five experts respond to the report and discuss how improved age diversity will benefit patients of all ages.
Report launch - Moving the needle: Improving uptake of adult vaccination in J...ILC- UK
Launch of the Moving the needle report, produced by ILC-UK in partnership with Stripe Partners.
This event was chaired by Dr Noriko Cable, Honorary Senior Research Fellow, Institute of Epidemiology & Health, UCL. Speakers include:
Arabella Trower, Senior Consultant, Stripe Partners
David Sinclair, Chief Executive, ILC-UK
Dr Charles Alessi, Chief Clinical Officer, éditohealth
Jason James, Director General, Daiwa Anglo-Japanese Foundation
Dr Michael Hodin, CEO, Global Coalition on Aging
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
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In a May 9, 2024 paper, Juri Opitz from the University of Zurich, along with Shira Wein and Nathan Schneider form Georgetown University, discussed the importance of linguistic expertise in natural language processing (NLP) in an era dominated by large language models (LLMs).
The authors explained that while machine translation (MT) previously relied heavily on linguists, the landscape has shifted. “Linguistics is no longer front and center in the way we build NLP systems,” they said. With the emergence of LLMs, which can generate fluent text without the need for specialized modules to handle grammar or semantic coherence, the need for linguistic expertise in NLP is being questioned.
role of women and girls in various terror groupssadiakorobi2
Women have three distinct types of involvement: direct involvement in terrorist acts; enabling of others to commit such acts; and facilitating the disengagement of others from violent or extremist groups.
हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
Advice in an ageing society - Money marketing conference
1. Advice in an ageing
society
David Sinclair, International Longevity
Centre – UK @ilcuk @sinclairda
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
2. ILC-UK Planning Tomorrow, Today
think tank
evidence based
policy focussed
balanced
independent
respected
experts
networked
international
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
3. Who are we?
The ILC-UK was established
in 2000 to explore and
address the impact of our
ageing society on public
policy
We have a global reach with
14 Members of the ILC
Global Alliance.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
4. Who do we work with?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
5. Our focus is broad
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
6. Ageing society
– More older people
– More of the oldest old
Advice challenges
– Small pots
– RDR
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
7. Growth in the number of oldest old
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
8. How many centenarians are there?
There are currently 11,800
people in the UK who are
currently at least 100 (DWP)
There are fewer than 100 people
who are aged more than 110.
(DWP)
In 1911 there were just 100
Centenarians living in England &
Wales
Growth has been about 7% p/a
http://www.flickr.com/photos/un_photo/5832
685007/sizes/z/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
9. Number of people currently alive who can expect
to see their 100th birthday, by age in 2010
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
10. Life is not easy for the oldest old
Three quarters of the oldest old
suffer from limiting longstanding
illnesses, and one out of three
perceive themselves as being in
poor health. (Tomassini C, 2005)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pondspider/4170990
903/sizes/m/in/photostream/
“almost 50% of men and women
aged 80-84 report severe
limitations in activities” (IFS, 2010)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
11. And many find it difficult to do day to day tasks
Sixty per-cent of over 90s report
difficulties shopping for groceries,
almost a quarter report difficulties
making telephone calls and 35%
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pinkchocola
te/3039589789/sizes/m/in/photostream/
report difficulties managing
money. (Sinclair, 2010/ELSA)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
12. A relatively high proportion live alone
Of those living in private
households, four in ten
very old men and seven
out of ten very old
women live alone. One
out of five very old
people live in communal
establishments.
(Tomassini C, 2005).
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sbeebe/5154169795/si
zes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
13. Most centenarians consult their GP
98% of centenarians
and near
centenarians
consulted a GP and
received prescription
medicine during follow
up. (Roughead,
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rwjensen/2288339230/sizes/m/in/photostream/
Kalisch et al, 2010)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
14. Centenarians do use drugs heavily
A study of 602 centenarians in
Italy found that a very high
proportion of this age group were
users of drugs.
5% no drugs.
13% one drug a day
16% took 2 drugs per day
65% took three drugs a day
5.5% more than 3 drugs a day.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
15. Some evidence of longer hospital stays
Centenarians who had suffered from a hip fracture
between 2000 and 2007 compared to a randomly
selected control group of 50 hip fracture patients
aged between 75 and 85. “the mean stay in acute
orthopaedic wards for centenarians was 20.7 days
and for the control group was 14.9 days”.
The longer acute hospital stay in the centenarian
cohort would amount to a mean extra cost of £ 2511
per patient. (Verma et al)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
16. Depression
“23% of those aged 85 and over
had levels of depressive symptoms
indicative of clinical relevance”
“Almost 13% of men and women
aged 80 and over had high levels
of depressive symptoms in 2008-09
but not in 2002-03” (IFS, 2010)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/junglearctic/300
2442666/sizes/m/in/photostream/
ELSA
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
17. Falls
60% of interviewees aged over 90
had had a fall and that of these, 4
in five were unable to get up after
at least one fall and almost a third
had lain on the ground for an hour
or more.
Call alarms were widely available
but not used.(Fleming and Brayne,
2008; Cambridge City over 75Cohor. BMJ)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
18. Poverty is a very real challenge
There is evidence that the
oldest old (aged 85 and over)
are, as a group, at greater
risk of poverty than younger
older people (aged 65-85)
Up to 10% of the oldest old
have total net wealth of
£3,000 or less.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
19. Dementia among centenarians
The prevalence of
dementia-free
survival past 100
years of age varied
between 0 and 50
percent.”
http://www.flickr.com/photos/thousandshipz/4679235/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
20. The oldest old remain the most excluded
Almost 38% of those aged 85 or
older faced some kind of social
exclusion, an encouraging decline of
10% from the 2002 levels
As people age, they are more likely
to become more socially excluded
than less
Almost two-fifths (38%) of those
aged 85 and older were excluded
from two or more domains of
exclusion in 2008
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pinkchocola
te/3039589789/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
21. Quality of Life falls with age
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
22. Cost of ageing
In the UK: age-related
spending is projected to
rise from an annual cost of
21.3% to 26.3% of GDP
between 2016/17 and
2061/62, a rise of 5% of
GDP (equivalent to a rise
of around £79bn in
today’s money).
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
23. Healthcare costs
• In the UK: spending on health care is projected to see the largest
rise of all elements of age-related spending, rising from an annual
cost of 6.8% to 9.1% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62, a
rise of 2.3% of GDP (equivalent to a rise of around £36bn in
today’s money).
• In the EU: spending on health care is projected to rise from an
annual cost of 7.1% to 8.3% of GDP between 2010 and 2060, a
rise of 1.1% of GDP.
• Globally: it is difficult to project the costs of health care because
of the lack of data from developing countries. But evidence of
growing numbers with long term conditions.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
24. Spending on health care will see the greatest
increase of all age-related spending over the
next 50 years
Projected health care
spending as a proportion
of GDP
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
25. Long term care costs
• In the UK: spending on long term
care is projected to rise between
2016/17 and 2061/62 from an
annual cost of 1.1% to 2% of
GDP, a rise of 0.9% of GDP59
(equivalent to a rise of around
£14bn in today’s money).
• EU spending on long term care is
projected to rise from an annual
cost of 1.8% to 3.4% of GDP
between 2010 and 2060
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
26. Increasingly living alone - isolation
50 per cent of the
1960s cohort will be
living alone at age 75
compared with 37 per
cent for the 1916-1920
cohort and 41 per cent
of the 1940s cohort
(Evandrou &
Falkingham, 2000).
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
27. Many live independently
Substantial numbers of
centenarians and nonagenarians
continue to live independently in
the community, either alone or with
family members.
8% of those aged 90 and over
were living in privately rented
accommodation and 30% in
socially rented accommodation.
2009 Understanding Society
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
28. Living together is good for us
Those who moved from living alone to living as
part of a couple (with no children) exhibited a
68% fall in the odds of becoming multiply
excluded between 2002 and 2008 compared to
those who stayed living alone;
Those who moved from being resident in a
couple household to living alone were over three
times more likely to become multiply excluded.
For this age group (50+), becoming a widow is
one of the most common reasons for starting to
live alone.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
http://www.flickr.com/
photos/anabadili/296
3913137/sizes/m/in/p
hotostream/
29. Impact of the global economic downturn
EU GDP growth is expected to be 1.4% per year between
2010 and 2060 compared to 2.5% for the 10 years 19972006.
More difficult for the state to pay for longevity:
Employment and productivity falling; falling tax intake; more
difficult to meet debt obligations; difficulties in funding
public pension systems
And for the individual: Unemployment, reductions in
wages, or reductions in hours worked, make it more difficult
to save adequately for retirement; Falls in value of pension
pots; Price inflation has been high.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
30. The squeezed middle age
People in their fifties increasingly
excluded from society
The number of people aged 50 plus
being socially excluded from decent
housing, public transport and local
amenities has risen sharply
Over one in six people in their fifties
(18%) were socially excluded in two
of more areas of their life – up from
13 per cent in 2002.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
31. Britons ageing quicker than their parents
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
32. Will the baby boomers demand change?
“They have fewer ties to family responsibilities...
With their homes paid for their major housing
concern is for property taxes and repairs... Being
essentially free from obligation, they may spend
their income and assets as they wish. Here is a
potential market, therefore for those marketers
who wish to appeal to it. It is a new market,
almost unrecognised which must be developed
with care as it depends upon the changing role
of older persons in our society and the
realisation that they are more free than their
predecessors in the past century.”
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
33. Will the baby boomers demand change?
“They have fewer ties to family responsibilities...
With their homes paid for their major housing
concern is for property taxes and repairs... Being
essentially free from obligation, they may spend
their income and assets as they wish. Here is a
potential market, therefore for those marketers
who wish to appeal to it. It is a new market,
almost unrecognised which must be developed
with care as it depends upon the changing role
of older persons in our society and the
realisation that they are more free than their
predecessors in the past century.”
Dodge,
1962
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
34. Some Opportunities
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
35. Dependency is not inevitable
Dependency is not inevitable
and a ”considerable
proportion of the
centenarians maintain a good
level of auto sufficiency for
the basic performance of the
http://www.flickr.com/photos/driever/5525684658/sizes/
m/in/photostream/
everyday life”. (Antonini et al,
2008)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
36. Some of the oldest old become more active
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
37. A move to prevention is vital
Prevention of ill health
Physical Activity
Smoking and alcohol consumption
Nutrition
Immunisation
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
38. Getting housing right
1. Extra care housing is a
home for life
2. Extra care translates
into fewer falls
3. Extra care is associated
with a lower uptake of
inpatient hospital beds
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
39. And how can we make new housing and
communities aspirational?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
40. Working longer – a solution?
The longer that people spend in work, the longer they
have to save for retirement and the shorter their
retirement will be, relative to their working life.
A later average age of exit can also increase the
number of people in work, relative to the number who
are retired, making it easier to fund pensions,
benefits and health and care costs from current
taxes.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
41. We are working longer
Labour market participation at
older ages (ages 55 to 64) is
expected to increase within the
EU from around 50% to around
67% between 2010 and 2060.
The average age of exit is also
projected to increase from around
62 to around 64 within the EU
and from around 64 to around 65
within the UK between 2010 and
2060.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
42. Technology limited by imagination
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
43. Fantastic developments in health
I think there’ll be a cure
for cancer one day.
That we never
thought we’d
see…and
Alzheimer’s.
I would wish for a pill to
cure everything…
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
44. From patient/recipient to health consumer
More confident consumers of
health with raising expectations
rather than patients
More tests available over the
counter
Greater access to information
about conditions
Expectations to health become
more focused on “fix it”,
prevent it, cure it?
Growth in health tourism
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
45. Developments in genetics
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
46. Possible technology innovations to 2050
2010
2020
Artificial
Intelligence entity
passes A level
Computer controlled
hunger suppressant
Artificial Intelligence
causes redundancies
Emotion control
devices
Full voice
recognition PCs
Viewers can choose
film roles
Tooth
regeneration
Listing of
individual DNA
Auto-pilot cars
2030
Digital mirrors
2040
2050
VR windows
Self clean houses
Face recognition
doors
Individual
pollution credits
Holographic TV
Smart
bath
Active skin
makeup
Prison countries
Human
memory
enhancement
Wave energy
=50% in UK
Invisibility
cloak
Bionic Olympics
Hydrogen fuel
stations
Circuits made
with bacteria
Global voting on
some issues
Global ID
card
Brain downloads
Virtual holidays
Thought input
mechanisms
widespread
Nuclear
fusion
Self drive cars
Virtual displays
Disposable
phones
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Robocops
Artificial brain
Human memory
downloads
Humanoid robots beat
national football team
47. Google knows! Location Based Services
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
48. Summary
There is lots to worry about
But there are opportunities
What is the role for you?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
49. Many thanks
David Sinclair
Head of Policy and Research
International Longevity Centre
Davidsinclair@ilcuk.org.uk
02073400440
Twitter: @ilcuk and @sinclairda
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
50. Our focus is broad
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
51. Summary
Life expectancy continues to grow
Public policy trends
4 reasons to worry
Opportunities
6 final trends
The policy role for Independent Age?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
52. Life expectancy is increasing
In the UK, life expectancy at birth
is expected to increase by 7 years
for men and 6.7 years for women
between 2010 and 2060.
Within the EU, life expectancy at
birth is expected to increase by
7.9 years for men and 6.5 years
for women between 2010 and
2060.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
53. And we might be underestimating
• The IMF warns that, based on past
underestimations, it is possible that
current global longevity projections
could be underestimated.
• If longevity projections are being
underestimated, this could add
between 1.5% to 2% of GDP to the
annual costs of pensions in countries
with advanced economies by 2050
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
54. Public Policy on ageing over past 10 years
2003: Introduction of Pension Credit
2000s: Equalities Bill and Turner Commission
dominated
2000s: 2 ageing strategies under Labour and one
housing strategy
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
55. 2010s: Social care funding and (since last year of
Labour Government)
Housing strategy not followed up – but greater
acceptance of importance of housing?
Growing recognition of real impact of dementia
Post election: NHS funding becoming more of
focus for reform
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
Post election: Government removed DRA
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
56. Impact of the global economic downturn
EU GDP growth is expected to be 1.4% per year
between 2010 and 2060 compared to 2.5% for the 10
years 1997-2006.
More difficult for the state to pay for longevity:
Employment and productivity falling; falling tax intake;
more difficult to meet debt obligations; difficulties in
funding public pension systems
And for the individual: Unemployment, reductions in
wages, or reductions in hours worked, make it more
difficult to save adequately for retirement; Falls in
value of pension pots; Price inflation has been high.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
57. Increasing debates on the cost and contribution of
older people
Rights and responsibilities across the life-course
But public debate ill informed (my mum)
From older drivers to older workers, popular
perceptions of old age remain too negative
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
58. Quality issues a real concern (and have been for
years).
Reformed/merged regulators
“Bonfire of the quangos”
Huge challenges in CQC
Terrible examples of abuse
Media focus on poor quality
Liverpool Care Pathway
Is quality improving? Challenging the media?
But how can health/care be improved with no cash,
more demand and limited incentvies to innovation.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
59. Initial themes of current Government
Localism
Big Society
Open Government/Data transparency
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
60. The devil is in the detail
Impact of RDR
Pensions regulations (pot follows member)
Equality regulations on goods and services/access
to health
Liverpool Care Pathway
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
61. Why should we worry?
4 reasons to worry
– Oldest old
– The cost of ageing
– Isolation and exclusion
– The squeezed middle aged
But opportunities
– Prevention (Vaccination nutrition pa)
– Housing
– Working longer
– Health developments and new technology
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
62. Growth in the number of oldest old
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
63. How many centenarians are there?
There are currently
11,800 people in the UK
who are currently at
least 100 (DWP)
There are fewer than
100 people who are
aged more than 110.
(DWP)
In 1911 there were just
100 Centenarians living
in England & Wales
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
Growth 7% p/a
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
64. Life is not easy for the oldest old
Three quarters of the oldest old
suffer from limiting longstanding
illnesses, and one out of three
perceive themselves as being in
poor health.
“almost 50% of men and women
aged 80-84 report severe limitations
in activities” (IFS, 2010)
Sixty per-cent of over 90s report
difficulties shopping for groceries,
and 35% report difficulties
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
managing money.
http://www.flickr.com/photo
s/pondspider/4170990903/siz
es/m/in/photostream/
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
65. Health of the oldest old
A very high proportion of centenarians
use drugs
Some evidence of longer hospital
stays
23% of those aged 85 and over had
levels of clinical depressive symptoms
60% of interviewees aged over 90 had
had a fall and that of these, 4 in five
were unable to get up after at least
one fall
Dementia between 50% and 100%
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
98% of centenarians and near
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
centenarians consulted a GP
66. Poverty is a very real challenge
The oldest old (aged 85
and over) are, as a group,
at greater risk of poverty
than younger older people
(aged 65-85). Up to 10%
of the oldest old have total
net wealth of £3,000 or
less.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
67. The oldest old remain the most excluded
Almost 38% of
those aged 85 or
older faced some
kind of social
exclusion, an
encouraging
decline of 10%
from the 2002
levels
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
68. OAP recovering after getting trapped in bath for
5 days
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
69. Cost of ageing
In the UK: age-related
spending is projected to
rise from an annual cost
of 21.3% to 26.3% of
GDP between 2016/17
and 2061/62, a rise of 5%
of GDP (equivalent to a
rise of around £79bn in
today’s money).
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
70. Trends in healthcare
As a result of a growing older
population, increasing longevity and a
greater coverage of public health care
within the EU the pressure on public
health care funding is likely to continue
growing. Public health spending in the
EU currently accounts for 14.6% of total
government spending, around 7.1% of
GDP.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
71. Healthcare costs
• In the UK: spending on health care is projected to see the largest
rise of all elements of age-related spending, rising from an annual
cost of 6.8% to 9.1% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62, a
rise of 2.3% of GDP (equivalent to a rise of around £36bn in
today’s money).
• In the EU: spending on health care is projected to rise from an
annual cost of 7.1% to 8.3% of GDP between 2010 and 2060, a
rise of 1.1% of GDP.
• Globally: it is difficult to project the costs of health care because
of the lack of data from developing countries. But evidence of
growing numbers with long term conditions.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
72. Spending on health care will see the
greatest increase of all age-related
spending over the next 50 years
Projected health care
spending as a
proportion of GDP
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
73. Long term care costs
• In the UK: spending on long
term care is projected to rise
between 2016/17 and 2061/62
from an annual cost of 1.1% to
2% of GDP, a rise of 0.9% of
GDP59 (equivalent to a rise
of around £14bn in today’s
money).
• EU spending on long term
care is projected to rise from
an annual cost of 1.8% to
The Internationalof GDP between 2010 non-partisan think-tank
3.4% Longevity Centre-UK is an independent,
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
and 2060
74. Pension costs
• UK spending on public pensions (state
pension, pensioner benefits and public
service pensions) is projected to rise
from an annual cost of 8.9% to 10.8% of
GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62
(equivalent to a rise of £33bn in
today’s money). These assumptions do
not include consideration of the impact
of a single-tier pension.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
75. Increasingly living alone - isolation
50 per cent of the
1960s cohort will be
living alone at age 75
compared with 37 per
cent for the 1916-1920
cohort and 41 per cent
of the 1940s cohort
(Evandrou &
Falkingham, 2000).
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
76. Living together is good for us
Those who moved from living alone to living
as part of a couple (with no children)
exhibited a 68% fall in the odds of becoming
multiply excluded between 2002 and 2008
compared to those who stayed living alone;
Those who moved from being resident in a
couple household to living alone were over
three times more likely to become multiply
excluded. For this age group (50+),
becoming a widow is one of the most
common reasons for starting to live alone.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
http://www.flickr.co
m/photos/anabadili/
2963913137/sizes/m
/in/photostream/
77. Exclusion from Cultural Activities
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
78. Exclusion from Local Amenities
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
79. Exclusion from Decent Housing and Public
Transport
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
80. Exclusion from common consumer goods
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
81. Access to banking
Almost ten per
cent of older
people do not
have a current
account
Among older
people surveyed
in 2002 and 2008,
fifteen per cent of
older people did
not report having
a current account
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
at both points.
dedicated
Six to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
per cent of
82. The squeezed middle age
People in their fifties increasingly
excluded from society
The number of people aged 50
plus being socially excluded from
decent housing, public transport
and local amenities has risen
sharply
Over one in six people in their
fifties (18%) were socially
excluded in two of more areas of
their life – up from 13 per cent in
2002.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
83. Britons ageing quicker than their parents
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
84. Will the baby boomers demand change?
“They have fewer ties to family
responsibilities... With their homes paid for
their major housing concern is for property
taxes and repairs... Being essentially free
from obligation, they may spend their income
and assets as they wish. Here is a potential
market, therefore for those marketers who
wish to appeal to it. It is a new market,
almost unrecognised which must be
developed with care as it depends upon the
changing role of older persons in our society
and the realisation that they are more free
than their predecessors in the past century.”
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
85. Will the baby boomers demand change?
“They have fewer ties to family
responsibilities... With their homes paid for
their major housing concern is for property
taxes and repairs... Being essentially free
from obligation, they may spend their income
and assets as they wish. Here is a potential
market, therefore for those marketers who
wish to appeal to it. It is a new market,
almost unrecognised which must be
developed with care as it depends upon the
changing role of older persons in our society
and the realisation that they are more free
than their predecessors in the past century.”
Dodge,
1962
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
86. Convenient myth of the elderly hedonist
The elderly have had a recent makeover, as appears in the 70-is-the-new-50 cliche….The impression
is one of elderly hedonists – more people in their 60s are getting divorced and starting a new life;
line-dancing, gymnastics and dating agencies, going from holiday to holiday; concessions, free
passes and cheap tickets. The OAP of yesterday has been transformed into the swinger who
refuses to acknowledge ageing.
In other words, the high-profile, fun-loving elderly consumer has become the contemporary emblem of
old age. This is profoundly reassuring for the rest of us, and it conveniently dissimulates the image
of those who live on into their ninth and 10th decade, consigned to the low-watt penumbra of the
nursing home, or worse, the invisible "shut-ins", as they are sometimes called, those too timid to go
out, who have lost confidence on the uneven pavements and dizzying shopping crowds; those
afflicted by the mysterious paranoias of old age, trembling each time the doorbell rings and
frightened of the unexpected telephone call; people whose days are marked by boredom and its
twin, loneliness; the companionless meal, the ticking clock and the sound of the electricity meter in
the stillness, while the winter dark presses against the windows by 4pm, the only company the
school photograph of grandchildren with their cheeky smiles and lost milk teeth smiling against the
blue background of a painted summer sky.
Jeremy Seabrook http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/12/elderly-care-michaelparkinson
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
87. Some Opportunities
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
88. Dependency is not inevitable
Dependency is not
inevitable and a
”considerable proportion of
the centenarians maintain
a good level of auto
sufficiency for the basic
http://www.flickr.com/photos/driever/5525684658/siz
es/m/in/photostream/
performance of the
everyday life”. (Antonini et
al, 2008)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
89. Some of the oldest old become more active
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
90. A move to prevention is vital
Prevention of ill health
Physical Activity
Smoking and alcohol consumption
Nutrition
Immunisation
(NUDGE, COMPEL OR EDUCATE?)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
91. Getting housing right
1. Extra care housing is
a home for life
2. Extra care translates
into fewer falls
3. Extra care is
associated with a
lower uptake of
inpatient hospital
beds
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
92. And how can we make new housing and
communities aspirational?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
93. Dependency ratios are increasing (by 2060)
From around
four workingage people to
around two
working-age
people for
every person
aged 65 (UK)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
94. Working longer – a solution?
The longer that people spend in work, the longer they
have to save for retirement and the shorter their
retirement will be, relative to their working life.
A later average age of exit can also increase the
number of people in work, relative to the number who
are retired, making it easier to fund pensions,
benefits and health and care costs from current
taxes.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
95. We are working longer
Labour market participation at
older ages (ages 55 to 64) is
expected to increase within the
EU from around 50% to
around 67% between 2010
and 2060.
The average age of exit is also
projected to increase from
around 62 to around 64 within
the EU and from around 64 to
around 65 within the UK
between 2010 and 2060.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
96. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
97. Technology limited by imagination
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
98. Fantastic developments in health
I think there’ll be a cure
for cancer one day.
That we never
thought we’d
see…and
Alzheimer’s.
I would wish for a pill to
cure everything…
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
99. A significant association between internet use
and perceived control in one’s life
Uses the internet
Yes
No
Total
Strongly agree
Moderately agree
551 (39.6%) 840 (60.4%)
1515 (51.6%) 1420 (48.4%)
1391
2935
Slightly agree
1545 (59.4%) 1058 (40.6%)
2603
Slightly disagree
Moderately
disagree
Strongly disagree
636 (68.2%)
593 (77.3%)
296 (31.8%)
174 (22.7%)
932
767
268 (71.8%)
105 (28.2%)
373
Chi-Sq= 422.074, df = 5, P=<0.000
Table 1. Feels what happens in life is often determined by factors beyond control
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
100. A strong association between the measure of
internet use and measures of loneliness
Uses the internet
Yes
No
Total
Hardly ever or
never
Some of the time
3764 (60.2%) 2489 (39.8%)
6253
1091(51.3%)
1037 (48.7%)
2128
Often
272 (37.4%)
456 (62.6%)
728
Chi-Sq= 166.556, df = 2, P=<0.000
Table 5. How often respondent feels lonely
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
101. People who reported not using the internet
were more likely to say that they ‘often’ felt
isolated
Uses the internet
Yes
No
Total
Hardly ever or
never
Some of the time
3683 (59.5%) 2503 (40.5%)
6186
1242 (52.6%)
1118 (47.4%)
2360
Often
198 (37.4%)
331 (62.6%)
529
Chi-Sq= 115.871, df = 2, P=<0.000
Table 6. How often respondent feels isolated from others
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
102. We must recognise and maximise the
contribution of age
• Labour market participation
at older ages is on the rise.
• Carers of all ages contribute
the equivalent of £119 billion
every year in the UK.
• Older consumers (aged 65
and over) spend on average,
around £100bn per year.
• Older people volunteer.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
103. 6 other trends to think about
Urbanisation: In the developing world the share of
older persons residing in urban areas will rise from
about 56 million in 1998 to over 908 million by
2050
The care workforce (role for older people?)
Challenges of migration
Climate change/environmental change
Dementia
Affluenza (Debt/Obesity)
A growing culture of “othering” (fear of crime)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
104. The policy role for Independent Age?
Housing; Care and advice; Isolation and exclusion
Look forward
Focus on the oldest old and most excluded OR
prevention value of early intervention
Challenge stereotypes and ageism
Explore diversity (men; migration)
Challenge existing thinking
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
Challenge older people (ask difficult questions)
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
105. Many thanks
David Sinclair
Assistant Director, Policy & Communications
International Longevity Centre
Davidsinclair@ilcuk.org.uk
02073400440
Twitter: @ilcuk and @sinclairda
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
106. The cost of our ageing society
European Commission 2012
Ageing Report
Office for Budget
Responsibility: Fiscal
Sustainability Report, July
2012.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
107. Dependency ratios are increasing (by 2060)
From around four working-age
people to around two workingage people for every person
aged 65 (UK)
From more than six workingage people for every person
aged 65 and over to just over
two working-age people for
every person aged 65 and
over (Globally)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
108. Relatively fewer ‘working age’ adults (EU)
The greater the old-age dependency ratio, the
more pressure there is on state systems to fund
pensions, benefits, and health and care costs for
older people.
Children
Working-age
Age 65 and over
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
109. The challenge in some places is more severe
80
Old-age dependency ratio (65+ / 15-64)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
IE
UK
NO
DK
BE
LU
SE
FR
NL
FI
CY
EU15
AT
EU27
EA17
CZ
EE
MT
ES
GR
IT
LT
PT
SI
HU
DE
BG
EU12
SK
PL
RO
LV
0
2010
2010-2030
2030-2060
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
110. Cost of ageing
In the UK: age-related
spending is projected to
rise from an annual cost
of 21.3% to 26.3% of
GDP between 2016/17
and 2061/62, a rise of 5%
of GDP (equivalent to a
rise of around £79bn in
today’s money).
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
111. Pension costs
•
•
•
UK spending on public pensions (state pension, pensioner
benefits and public service pensions) is projected to rise
from an annual cost of 8.9% to 10.8% of GDP between
2016/17 and 2061/62 (equivalent to a rise of £33bn in
today’s money). These assumptions do not include
consideration of the impact of a single-tier pension.
EU spending on public pensions is projected to rise from an
annual cost of 11.3% of GDP to 12.9% of GDP (2010 to
2060).
Globally: IMF project that global spending on pensions
could rise from an annual cost of 5.3% to 11.1% of GDP
between 2010 and 2050 in advanced economies.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
112. UK spending on pensions as a proportion of
GDP to rise to 10.8% by 2062
12%
State Pensions
Pensioner Benefits
Public Service Pensions
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2016-17
2021-22
2031-32
2041-42
2051-52
2060-61
2061-62
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
113. Progress with pension reforms: spending
16
14
12
10
+2,3 p.p.
(2009 AR)
+1.5 p.p.
(2012 AR)
8
6
4
2
-2
LV
PL
EE
IT
DK
PT
FR
SE
EL
BG
UK
EU27
EA
AT
DE
CZ
HU
FI
LT
NL
ES
RO
IE
NO
SK
MT
BE
SI
CY
LU
0
-4
2009 AR
2012 AR
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
114. Healthcare costs
• In the UK: spending on health care is projected to see the largest
rise of all elements of age-related spending, rising from an annual
cost of 6.8% to 9.1% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62, a
rise of 2.3% of GDP (equivalent to a rise of around £36bn in
today’s money).
• In the EU: spending on health care is projected to rise from an
annual cost of 7.1% to 8.3% of GDP between 2010 and 2060, a
rise of 1.1% of GDP.
• Globally: it is difficult to project the costs of health care because
of the lack of data from developing countries. But evidence of
growing numbers with long term conditions.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
115. Spending on health care will see the
greatest increase of all age-related
spending over the next 50 years
Projected health care
spending as a
proportion of GDP
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
116. Long term care costs
• In the UK: spending on long
term care is projected to rise
between 2016/17 and 2061/62
from an annual cost of 1.1% to
2% of GDP, a rise of 0.9% of
GDP59 (equivalent to a rise
of around £14bn in today’s
money).
• EU spending on long term
care is projected to rise from
an annual cost of 1.8% to
The Internationalof GDP between 2010 non-partisan think-tank
3.4% Longevity Centre-UK is an independent,
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
and 2060
117. Spending on long-term care
Projected spending on
long-term care as a
proportion of GDP
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
118. Cost of education flat
• In the UK: spending on
education is projected to
remain generally level between
2016/17 and 2061/62 at an
annual cost of 4.5% of GDP.
(NB Partly due to spending cuts
in education announced in
November 2011)
• In the EU: spending on
education is projected to
reduce from an annual cost of
The Internationalto 4.5% of GDP between
4.6% Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
2010 and 2060
119. Costs of unemployment up in UK
In the UK: spending on unemployment
benefits is projected to rise from an annual
cost of 0.3% to 0.6% of GDP between
2010 and 2060 (equivalent to a rise of
around £5bn in today‟s money).
• In the EU: spending on unemployment
benefits is projected to reduce from an
annual cost of 1.1% to 0.7% of GDP
between 2010 and 2060. Partly due to
European Commission expectation that
there will be a decrease in the structural
unemployment rate.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
120. Looking forward
Changes in longevity,
fertility and migration
Trends in health care and
long-term care
Labour market
participation rates and
labour market exit ages
The economy and GDP
growth
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
121. Changes in longevity
Longevity is expected to continue
increasing: Increasingly long lives
impact the costs of pensions, health
care and long-term care as
individuals need to receive these
benefits and services for longer.
Globally, life expectancy at birth is
projected to increase by 13 years
during this century from 68 years in
2005/10 to 81 years in 2095/2100.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
122. Life expectancy is increasing
In the UK, life expectancy at birth
is expected to increase by 7 years
for men and 6.7 years for women
between 2010 and 2060.
Within the EU, life expectancy at
birth is expected to increase by
7.9 years for men and 6.5 years
for women between 2010 and
2060.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
123. And we might be underestimating
The projected costs of ageing will be
higher if people live for longer than
current longevity projections indicate.
• The IMF warns that, based on past
underestimations, it is possible that
current global longevity projections
could be underestimated.
• If longevity projections are being
underestimated, this could add
between 1.5% to 2% of GDP to the
annual costs of pensions in countries
with advanced economies by 2050
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
124. Fertility rates are below replacement rate
•
Fertility rates are increasing but are still lower than
a 100% replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman
per lifetime in the EU and the UK
•
A reduction in fertility relative to the rest of the
population has implications for future proportions of
working-age people to older people.
•
Global fertility rates are currently at 2.47 births per
woman.
•
The UK has a fertility rate higher than the EU
average, at 1.94 in 2010, which is projected to fall
to 1.91 by 2060
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
125. Impact of the global economic downturn
EU GDP growth is expected to be 1.4% per year between 2010 and
2060 compared to 2.5% for the 10 years 1997-2006.
More difficult for the state to pay for longevity: Employment and
productivity falling; falling tax intake; more difficult to meet debt
obligations; difficulties in funding public pension systems
And for the individual: Unemployment, reductions in wages, or
reductions in hours worked, make it more difficult to save
adequately for retirement; Falls in value of pension pots; The value
of a pension annuity has decreased; Price inflation has been high,
especially for pensioners who spend the majority of their income on
basic goods and services (eg food and energy) which experience
greater inflation.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
126. Potential growth rates decline
Productivity (+1.5 %) becomes the dominant source of
growth
Potential GDP growth - EU27
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
2009 AR
2060
2058
2056
2054
2052
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
0.0
2012 AR
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
127. Trends in healthcare
As a result of a growing older
population, increasing longevity and a
greater coverage of public health care
within the EU the pressure on public
health care funding is likely to continue
growing. Public health spending in the
EU currently accounts for 14.6% of total
government spending, around 7.1% of
GDP.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
128. Working longer – a solution?
The longer that people spend in work, the longer they
have to save for retirement and the shorter their
retirement will be, relative to their working life.
A later average age of exit can also increase the
number of people in work, relative to the number who
are retired, making it easier to fund pensions,
benefits and health and care costs from current
taxes.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
129. We are working longer
Labour market participation at
older ages (ages 55 to 64) is
expected to increase within the
EU from around 50% to
around 67% between 2010
and 2060.
The average age of exit is also
projected to increase from
around 62 to around 64 within
the EU and from around 64 to
around 65 within the UK
between 2010 and 2060.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
130. Ageing or retirement problem ?
Adult life spent in retirement EU27
Men
Wom en
2010
2060
2010
2060
Em ploym ent rate of older w orkers (55-64)
54.5
66.7
38.6
60.3
Average entry age
21.6
21.6
23.6
23.6
Average exit age
62.5
64.3
61.7
63.8
Life expectancy at the tim e of w ithdraw al
18.9
22.7
22.7
26.0
% of adult life spent in retirem ent
Requested exit postponem ent in years
(to keep % life spent in retirem ent
constant)
31.7
34.7
37.4
39.3
2.0
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
1.3
131. Must address worklessness across lifecourse
• A low old-age dependency ratio does not necessarily mean
that the burden on working people is reduced unless many
of the people of working-age are actually in work
• Another way of measuring the degree of dependency in a country
is by looking at proportion of people who are not in work as a
proportion of the total population. (Labour Market Adjusted
Ratios)
•
In the UK 42.6% of the population were not in work in 2010. This
is expected to increase to 47.5% by 2050. Within the EU as a
whole, the proportion of the population out of work is expected to
grow from 47.7% in 2010 to 56.3% in 2050.26
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
132. Can migration help mitigate the cost of ageing?
YES
Migration affects population size and can
reduce dependency ratios (depending on agestructure of migrants)
The UK is expected to receive around 8.6m
net migrants over the next 50 years
The EU is expected to receive around 60.7m
net migrants over the next 50 years
BUT
• The EU would require a far greater level of net
migration to maintain the current dependency
ratio (an extra 11 million migrants by 2020).
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
133. What else do we need to do?
• Governments need to prepare for uncertainty
• Governments need to ensure pension systems are
sustainable, allow for greater risk-sharing, and are
less vulnerable to longevity risk
• Linking retirement ages to life expectancy can help
protect pension system sustainability
• Across the world, people will need to continue to
work longer
• Policies must focus on enabling active, healthy
ageing rather than just tackling the costs of ageing
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
134. What else do we need to do?
• Countries need to ensure there are safety nets for
those who cannot work longer
• Governments across the world should consider how to
create better conditions for health care innovation and
development
• If governments were to introduce legislation restricting
the inward flow of migration the dependency ratio
could be increased beyond current projection levels
• Addressing the needs of ageing populations will
require ongoing investment in research and data
collection
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
135. What else do we need to do?
• Efforts need to be put in to tackle unemployment
amongst those of working age. People in particular
groups such as women and people at risk of social
exclusion are more likely to be unemployed.
• Governments might wish to look at ways of helping
women with children to be able to remain in the
workforce, through development of child-care
programmes and work with employers to ensure
fathers can contribute more to raising children and
women are not penalised for taking career breaks.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
136. We must recognise and maximise the
contribution of age
• Labour market participation
at older ages is on the rise.
• Carers of all ages contribute
the equivalent of £119 billion
every year in the UK)
• Older consumers (aged 65
and over) spend on average,
around £100bn per year.
• Older people volunteer
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
137. We can tackle the challenges of the
cost of ageing
But is there the political and social
will?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
138. Multiple issues, multiple solutions
David Sinclair, International Longevity Centre
– UK @sinclairda @ilcuk
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
139. Summary
Dr Dylan Kneale
Using data from English
Longitudinal Study of Ageing
What is Social Exclusion and
why are older people at risk
How has exclusion changed
2002-2008
Who is most likely to be
excluded
Trends and key findings
Recommendations
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
140. What is social exclusion?
•
Broadest sense Recognition of
material/non-material link
•
No, Arguably apolitical with a rich academic
history
•
UN, Europe…UK?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
141. Social Exclusion
Decent Housing and
Public Transport
Financial Products
Social
Relationships
Cultural Activities
Civic Activities and
Access to
information
Local
Amenities
Consumer goods
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
142. Why might older people be at risk from
exclusion?/multiple exclusion
characteristics that are more likely to
occur in later life, such as disability, low
income and widowhood
cumulative disadvantage, where cohorts
become more unequal over time
community characteristics which make
older people more vulnerable e.g.
population turnover, economic decline
and crime
experience of age-based discrimination.
(based on Philipson and Scharf, 2004)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/
driever/5525684658/sizes/m
/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
143. Exclusion from Social Relationships
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
144. Exclusion from Cultural Activities
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
145. Exclusion from Civic Activities/Access to
Information
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
146. Exclusion from Local Amenities
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
147. Exclusion from Decent Housing and Public
Transport
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
148. Exclusion from common consumer goods
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
149. Exclusion from financial products
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
150. Access to banking
Almost ten per cent of older
people do not have a current
account
Among older people surveyed in
2002 and 2008, fifteen per cent
of older people did not report
having a current account at both
points.
Six per cent of older people
who reported a current account
in 2002 no longer did so in
2008.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
151. Exclusion grows for oldest old and ethnic
minorities
Between 2002 and 2008, 9.3 per cent of
people aged 80 plus became excluded
from financial products compared to only
2.1 per cent of those aged 50-59.
Older people from ethnic minorities were
more likely to be excluded from financial
products.
In 2008, the odds of an older person from
an ethnic minority being excluded from
financial products were three times higher
than the odds of a white older person.
http://www.flickr.com/
photos/pondspider/41
70990903/sizes/m/in/
photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
152. So how has exclusion changed?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
153. And what about multiple exclusion
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
154. Exclusion isn’t inevitable by age
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
155. What about those not excluded?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
156. Who is most likely to be excluded?
Older men were significantly
more likely to be excluded from
social relationships while older
women were more likely to be
excluded from cultural activities.
Being non-white was associated
with a higher risk of
experiencing some form of
exclusion compared to being
white (59.8% compared to
47.3%).
http://www.flickr.com/photos/drieve
r/5525684658/sizes/m/in/photostre
am/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
157. Who is most likely to be excluded?
Wealthy older people are
much less likely to be
socially excluded than
their poorer counterparts
Becoming a care giver
between 2002 and 2008
was associated with a two
fold increase in the odds
of becoming excluded
from two or more domains
of social
http://www.flickr.com/photos/sbeebe/515
4169795/sizes/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
158. Other trends and key findings
Living together is
good for us
The squeezed middle
age
The oldest old remain
the most excluded
Growing exclusion
from
housing/transport/
amenities
http://www.flickr.com/photos/thousandshipz/4679235/sizes/m/i
n/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
159. Living together is good for us
Those who moved from living alone to living
as part of a couple (with no children)
exhibited a 68% fall in the odds of becoming
multiply excluded between 2002 and 2008
compared to those who stayed living alone;
Those who moved from being resident in a
couple household to living alone were over
three times more likely to become multiply
excluded. For this age group (50+),
becoming a widow is one of the most
common reasons for starting to live alone.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
http://www.flickr.co
m/photos/anabadili/
2963913137/sizes/
m/in/photostream/
160. The squeezed middle age
People in their fifties increasingly
excluded from society
The number of people aged 50
plus being socially excluded from
decent housing, public transport
and local amenities has risen
sharply
Over one in six people in their
fifties (18%) were socially
excluded in two of more areas of
their life – up from 13 per cent in
2002.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
161. On the other hand – the oldest old remain
the most excluded
Almost 38% of those aged 85 or
older faced some kind of social
exclusion, an encouraging decline
of 10% from the 2002 levels
As people age, they are more
likely to become more socially
excluded than less
Almost two-fifths (38%) of those
aged 85 and older were excluded
from two or more domains of
exclusion in 2008
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pinkcho
colate/3039589789/sizes/m/in/photos
tream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
162. Growth in exclusion from
housing/transport/amenities
Rates of exclusion from decent
housing and public transport
and exclusion from local
amenities rose sharply between
2002 and 2008 among the
population aged 50 and above
as a whole – by over five per
cent to approximately sixteen
per cent.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/un_photo/5
832685007/sizes/z/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
163. So what needs to happen?
Allocate the task of
measuring and developing
strategies to overcome
material and non-material
disadvantage to a specific
team within government.
Shift the focus of
government policy on
ageing towards prevention.
Develop a widowhood
strategy.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rwjensen/2288339230/size
s/m/in/photostream/
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
164. So what needs to happen?
Better develop outreach provision to reach the
hardest to reach before crises occur.
Improve planning of neighbourhoods for people of
all ages to reduce levels of exclusion from local
amenities and decent housing and public transport.
Provide additional support for carers and reduce
gender inequalities in social exclusion through the
expansion of existing intervention programmes.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
165. Contact
David Sinclair
Head of Policy and Research
International Longevity Centre – UK
davidsinclair@ilcuk.org.uk
Twitter.com/ilcuk
Twitter.com/sinclairda
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
166. Summary
About ILC-UK
The size of the market (and it‟s growing)
What is an older consumer?
Is the consumer changing? Why does participation
decline with age?
Given all this, are older consumers ignored?
The issues
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
167. We influence Government policy and debate
The ILC-UK was established in 2000 to explore and
address the new longevity revolution and its impact on
the life-course and society.
Think Tank
Global (12 ILCs)
Evidence Based
High visibility around Westminster (e.g. 17events/1000
people in 2010)
Engage at highest levels of Government
Focussed on life-course
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
168. Some of our publications
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
169. It‟s a big market
Older people‟s
spending reached
an estimated £97bn
in 2008 (over 65)
The over 50s spent
£276bn in 2008.
This represents 44%
of the total family
spending in the UK
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
170. An ageing society means more older
consumers
The 65+ age group now accounts for 20% of the UK consumer
population (16+), and is expected to rise so that in 2030 over
65s account for 25% of the consumer market. PRFC for ILCUK
The older market will grow by 81% from 2005 to 2030 while the
18-59 year old market will only increase by 7%. EU figures
quoted by Stewart
In the UK, the number of consumers over 60 years old could
increase by 40% over the next 30 years. Meneely, Burns and
Strugnell (2008)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
171. Distribution of net household financial wealth1:
by age of household head (2006/08)
Mean
Median
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
16-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75-84
85+
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
172. And we might buy different things
Older people currently spend more than
other ages on: drugs and healthcare;
personal care; and coffee
They represent a significant market for new
cars and travel.
Clothing spend declines with age
But less on eating
out, movies, theatres, petrol and
champagne
Certain industries will need to adapt to an
ageing society
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
173. The beer industry is worried!
“German beer consumption
fell 2.1% in 2009 based on an
ageing population”
Bloomberg.com
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
174. But we know that ageing represents growth
potential (BIS)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
175. What makes a consumer an older consumer?
Impact of biological and social ageing on
consumption
Loss in physical strength may make opening
jars/bottles more difficult
Older people losing mental capacity/dementia may find
difficulties with problem solving or processing
information. They may also find it difficult to shop
around or exercise choice
Those housebound can be excluded from the
physical marketplace
Ageing can make it more difficult to carry heavy
weights and can also result in reduced appetite
(Twofers!)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
176. Difficulty with shopping, communicating and
handling money
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
177. There are some very wealthy people not
spending
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
178. Yet people would like to participate more
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
179. Are older consumers ignored?
“Just because I‟m over 60 nobody wants to sell
me anything anymore”
Germaine Greer
“Advertisers and marketers are astonishingly
neglectful of older audiences even for products
primarily sold to older people”
Mike Waterson, Chair World Advertising
Research Centre
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
180. Why don‟t companies target older people?
Perception of a lack of buying
power
Stereotyping of older people as
“powerless, ugly, dowdy or
uninspiring” (alongside an
obsession with youth)
Lack of information about older
people‟s sensitivity to marketing
Tynan and Drayton (2008)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
181. But some companies are getting more
interested
“Coca Cola moved into the wine, coffee, tea and
orange juice markets during the 1980s to capture
older consumer markets who were less interested in
their coke brands”
Simcock and Sudbury 2006
“Anheuser Busch, the largest US beer
maker, attempted to reach the 50 plus age group
and wound up creating one of it‟s top selling brands”
Green 2004
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
182. 6 Issues to consider
Older consumers as giver and recipient
Better representation of older people in advertising
Older people as users of technology (the role of
Inclusive design)
Engaging the active consumer (Shopping around)
A continuing need to tackle Age Discrimination
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
183. The older consumer is a giver and recipient
Marketers note that older
consumers buy a relatively high
proportion of toys (25%?) and
confectionary
Grandparents spend £50,000 on
their first grandchild (Oct 2010)
Younger children/grandchildren
often buy for the older person
In other words, people aren‟t
always buying for themselves.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
184. Representation of older people in advertising
Older people, particularly women, are under-represented in advertising
(NB Cognitive age effect) IPC/Simcock and Sudbury (2001)
Where older people are represented, evidence that it is for products such
as “pain relievers, digestive aids, lacistives and denture forumlas”
Freimuth and Jamison (1979)
There is limited evidence that older people are badly represented in
advertising Simcock and Sudbury
We‟ve started to see more examples of companies using older models
(e.g. Dove)
Scant evidence and no consensus that using older models puts younger
people off the product/service Simcock and Sudbury (2001)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
185. Technology – an opportunity (and a
challenge)
Around 820,000 older consumers (65+) in the UK made an internet
purchase PRFC Analysis for ILC-UK (EFS 2007)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
186. Inclusive design
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
187. Can you read the menu?
In many European cities one of the
main groups eating in restaurants
are those over 50, yet very few 50
year olds are able to read a menu
by candlelight with out their
reading glasses. That is because
the menus are usually designed
by younger people in print shops,
not for senior citizens. What a
crazy situation: the people who the
restaurants want to market to
cannot read any of their sales
literature. Patrick Dixon (2008)
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
188. Shopping Around
Mixed evidence but in terms of insurance;
utilities; communications technologies, there
is evidence that as we get older we are less
likely to shop around. WHY?
Older people are happy with the product?
Difficult to calculate the benefit of switching (telecoms/utilities)
There are few alternatives (e.g. upper age limits)
Switching is a hassle
Reduced information processing abilities (but does experience
compensate for age?)
But if marketers assume people don‟t shop around they won‟t target
them.
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
189. Direct and indirect age discrimination
“Interflora, Britain‟s biggest flower
delivery business, has been
accused of ageism as their new
„happy birthday‟ balloon range only
goes up to 60 years old.”
Telegraph, September 2010
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
190. Are older consumers changing?
“It is blindingly obvious that there is enormous difference
between the seniors of yesteryear and people of the same
age today.”
Saga 2008
We have a wealthy cohort (on average) (and there are more of
them)
Recent retirees “are more strongly defined by the impact of
consumer society on their lives and expectations of post
work life than previous generations”
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
191. But is this a new phenomenon?
“They have fewer ties to family responsibilities... With
their homes paid for their major housing concern
is for property taxes and repairs... Being
essentially free from obligation, they may spend
their income and assets as they wish. Here is a
potential market, therefore for those marketers
who wish to appeal to it. It is a new market, almost
unrecognised which must be developed with care
as it depends upon the changing role of older
persons in our society and the realisation that they
are more free than their predecessors in the past
century.”
Dodge, 1
962
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
192. Let‟s not assume older people are all the
same
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
193. The new image of the older consumer
“ageless”. Let‟s take age out of the equation?
Age Neutral approach argues that:
An Age Neutral approach should be taken to
marketing
Needs of older people are not that different
from other adults
The principals of marketing to all ages are the
same
Lifestyle or interest is going to be more
important than age
Dick Stroud
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
194. Summary
The older consumer has money
They value good service
Lots of companies get it wrong
Age not best predictor of behaviour
There is money to be made by those who get it right.
But. Is there such a thing as “the older consumer”?
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
195. Many thanks
David Sinclair - Head of Policy & Research,
International Longevity Centre (ILC-UK)
davidsinclair@ilcuk.org.uk
Twitter:
@sinclairda
@ILCUK
The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.