1. While some economists believe the recession may be ending in the US, many in the commercial real estate industry remain wary that the downturn is not over and a "knockout punch" could still come.
2. Comments from real estate executives indicate that commercial real estate will not recover until banks start lending again and problems from bad debt, lack of credit, weak employment, and falling property values are addressed.
3. The recession may have delivered its worst blows but commercial real estate still has more difficulties ahead as long as troubled assets remain on bank balance sheets without proper resolution.
The document provides an update on the Equity Income Portfolio strategy for year-end 2008. It discusses how 2008 was an extraordinarily difficult year for financial markets, with most major indexes experiencing declines of 30-40%. While the portfolio fared better than indexes with a decline of 18%, it was still the portfolio's first negative year since inception in 2000. The outlook provided expects a long and difficult economic downturn, with stock market valuations not bottoming until 2015-2020 when price-to-earnings ratios reach single digits. The update reviews the portfolio holdings and dividend payments received in 2008.
Business, People, and COVID: A RoadmapBaburaj Nair
This document provides an overview of the economic impacts of recessions and depressions based on historical examples over the last 100 years. It notes that recessions are defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and depressions see over 10% declines in actual GDP. Previous recessions have severely impacted sectors like finance, construction, housing, agriculture, and aviation. The document advocates for contingency planning and proposes actions companies can take to manage impacts on revenues, supply chains, productivity, costs and employees. It emphasizes the need for cooperation between government, businesses and society to maintain confidence and overcome economic downturns.
The document discusses applying concepts of situational awareness (SA) to investing in alternative investments such as hedge funds. SA involves perceiving elements in one's environment, comprehending their meaning, and projecting their future status. The document outlines applying SA's three levels - acquiring data, evaluating the data to create an understanding, and projecting future states - to gain knowledge about macroeconomic conditions, the alternative investment industry, and individual managers. This framework can help differentiate investment choices and ensure accurate mental models are used for decision making.
The global economy continues its recovery but remains fragile with several challenges. While inflation is rising in emerging markets, developed countries still face low underlying inflation and structural problems requiring reforms. Interest rate increases in Europe and the US could jeopardize the recovery if done too soon. Demands for political reforms in the Middle East add uncertainty. Both the US and Europe must address high debt and weak growth through budget consolidation and reforms. The eurozone needs stronger institutions to improve collaboration between countries.
The document summarizes the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath. It discusses how excess leverage and easy credit led to the crisis. It then describes the massive fiscal and monetary responses by governments to counter the recession. Finally, it outlines a new investment strategy focused on bonds, hedging risks, and adapting to long-term volatility in a more regulated post-crisis economic environment.
The document provides an outlook for the year 2016. It begins with a base case that forecasts slow economic growth and low inflation in the US, with the S&P 500 reaching 2214.39. It identifies several "known unknowns" that could impact the outlook, including monetary policy changes, the global economy, the upcoming US election, and geopolitical issues. It then examines the weak US economic recovery in more depth, attributing it to high private sector debt levels. International growth is also constrained by debt and aging populations. China's transition away from its low-cost manufacturing model poses risks if not managed properly.
This document discusses the current economic challenges and provides suggestions for protecting assets during difficult financial times. It outlines six major obstacles slowing economic recovery, including accumulated debt, wealth destruction, declining incomes, the slow pace of government rescues, sinking confidence, and how to finance government programs. Specific concerns mentioned include declining asset prices, taxes, inflation, and unknown factors. The document recommends building cash reserves, selling bonds, considering inverse ETFs and gold funds, avoiding high-risk investments, and being wary of fraud. It offers to provide ongoing information and answers questions to help investors navigate the challenging environment.
The document discusses how many widely held beliefs in economics and finance have been proven wrong over time. It provides examples of interest rates becoming negative, inflation being much lower than expected, and the price of oil fluctuating dramatically instead of steadily increasing. The author argues that one should be humble and flexible in their views instead of rigidly holding positions, as the financial world is always changing in ways that may contradict current assumptions. Staying open-minded and avoiding extreme portfolio positions based on specific worldviews can help investors adapt to changes.
The document provides an update on the Equity Income Portfolio strategy for year-end 2008. It discusses how 2008 was an extraordinarily difficult year for financial markets, with most major indexes experiencing declines of 30-40%. While the portfolio fared better than indexes with a decline of 18%, it was still the portfolio's first negative year since inception in 2000. The outlook provided expects a long and difficult economic downturn, with stock market valuations not bottoming until 2015-2020 when price-to-earnings ratios reach single digits. The update reviews the portfolio holdings and dividend payments received in 2008.
Business, People, and COVID: A RoadmapBaburaj Nair
This document provides an overview of the economic impacts of recessions and depressions based on historical examples over the last 100 years. It notes that recessions are defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and depressions see over 10% declines in actual GDP. Previous recessions have severely impacted sectors like finance, construction, housing, agriculture, and aviation. The document advocates for contingency planning and proposes actions companies can take to manage impacts on revenues, supply chains, productivity, costs and employees. It emphasizes the need for cooperation between government, businesses and society to maintain confidence and overcome economic downturns.
The document discusses applying concepts of situational awareness (SA) to investing in alternative investments such as hedge funds. SA involves perceiving elements in one's environment, comprehending their meaning, and projecting their future status. The document outlines applying SA's three levels - acquiring data, evaluating the data to create an understanding, and projecting future states - to gain knowledge about macroeconomic conditions, the alternative investment industry, and individual managers. This framework can help differentiate investment choices and ensure accurate mental models are used for decision making.
The global economy continues its recovery but remains fragile with several challenges. While inflation is rising in emerging markets, developed countries still face low underlying inflation and structural problems requiring reforms. Interest rate increases in Europe and the US could jeopardize the recovery if done too soon. Demands for political reforms in the Middle East add uncertainty. Both the US and Europe must address high debt and weak growth through budget consolidation and reforms. The eurozone needs stronger institutions to improve collaboration between countries.
The document summarizes the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath. It discusses how excess leverage and easy credit led to the crisis. It then describes the massive fiscal and monetary responses by governments to counter the recession. Finally, it outlines a new investment strategy focused on bonds, hedging risks, and adapting to long-term volatility in a more regulated post-crisis economic environment.
The document provides an outlook for the year 2016. It begins with a base case that forecasts slow economic growth and low inflation in the US, with the S&P 500 reaching 2214.39. It identifies several "known unknowns" that could impact the outlook, including monetary policy changes, the global economy, the upcoming US election, and geopolitical issues. It then examines the weak US economic recovery in more depth, attributing it to high private sector debt levels. International growth is also constrained by debt and aging populations. China's transition away from its low-cost manufacturing model poses risks if not managed properly.
This document discusses the current economic challenges and provides suggestions for protecting assets during difficult financial times. It outlines six major obstacles slowing economic recovery, including accumulated debt, wealth destruction, declining incomes, the slow pace of government rescues, sinking confidence, and how to finance government programs. Specific concerns mentioned include declining asset prices, taxes, inflation, and unknown factors. The document recommends building cash reserves, selling bonds, considering inverse ETFs and gold funds, avoiding high-risk investments, and being wary of fraud. It offers to provide ongoing information and answers questions to help investors navigate the challenging environment.
The document discusses how many widely held beliefs in economics and finance have been proven wrong over time. It provides examples of interest rates becoming negative, inflation being much lower than expected, and the price of oil fluctuating dramatically instead of steadily increasing. The author argues that one should be humble and flexible in their views instead of rigidly holding positions, as the financial world is always changing in ways that may contradict current assumptions. Staying open-minded and avoiding extreme portfolio positions based on specific worldviews can help investors adapt to changes.
This document provides an overview and analysis of economic events in 2008. It discusses the large declines in stock markets and other asset classes that year due to the unwinding of the debt bubble. It criticizes the new presidential administration's plans to stimulate the economy through large government spending programs, arguing this approach did not work during the Great Depression and will likely not work now. The document proposes eliminating all corporate and business income taxes as a better way to stimulate the economy with little cost to taxpayers. It claims this would lower business costs, generate cash flows, attract foreign capital, and make the U.S. the most competitive economy. However, it acknowledges this proposal will likely not be adopted.
This document summarizes the key findings from an analysis of past deleveraging cycles in the US economy in the mid-1970s and early 1990s. Some of the main points include:
- Past deleveraging cycles were actually good periods for stock market performance and saw leadership from consumer discretionary and technology stocks.
- Deleveraging is a lagging phenomenon that typically occurs late in an economic slowdown.
- Housing activity, as measured by building permits, tended to bottom out early in past deleveraging cycles and then rise steadily through the cycle.
- Inflation tended to decline during deleveraging periods, suggesting disinflation may lie ahead.
- Mon
Lpl Financial Research Weekly Market Commentary Nov. 19th, 2012chrisphil
1. The fiscal cliff is causing significant investor anxiety as evidenced by a 7% drop in the S&P 500 since mid-September.
2. Investors are experiencing the five stages of grief around the fiscal cliff: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. Most investors have moved past denial and are currently in the bargaining stage.
3. A short-term or partial deal that kicks the can down the road may increase market volatility while a comprehensive long-term solution would reduce uncertainty and increase business and consumer confidence.
The document discusses highlights for 2012 including:
1) An upward bias for stocks in the range of 1,100 to 1,550 and low bias for interest rates in the first half of 2012, though headwinds and uncertainty may arise quickly.
2) 2012 will be a significant time of historical transformations as pressures build from unresolved issues like high global debt and political unrest, similar to the 1970s-1980s.
3) TSWM will maintain a well-thought-out asset allocation plan and conservative balance to mitigate emotional decision-making as volatility increases, relying on sound portfolio principles.
The document discusses the threat of economic stagnation in Western countries and the challenges of austerity. It argues that while austerity measures may seem moderate from a regional perspective, they have profoundly negative effects on individual crisis-struck countries. Stimulus packages implemented in response to the financial crisis should have been combined with structural reforms. Different types of recessions require different policy responses - balance sheet recessions like in the US need continued fiscal support, while Southern European crises stem more from structural issues and require fiscal consolidation paired with reforms.
The document provides an asset allocation and market outlook for the second quarter of 2009 from BlackRock. It summarizes views on global equity, fixed income, currency and commodity markets. Key points include:
- Equity markets have rallied from oversold levels but volatility will likely continue; higher risk assets should outperform over 2009. Within equities, favor healthcare, energy and technology.
- For fixed income, focus on higher quality investments like agencies and select corporate bonds; municipal bonds remain attractive.
- The US dollar will likely strengthen with risk aversion and weaken with improved risk appetite. Oil prices should rise through 2009 as recovery signs emerge.
Merrill Lynch seeks to do business with companies it covers in research reports, so it may have conflicts of interest that could affect the objectivity of its reports. Investors should consider Merrill Lynch reports as one factor among many in their investment decisions. Customers can receive independent third-party research on covered companies at no cost if available.
Northland Wealth Management is proud to have won for the 2nd consecutive year Advisor of the Year (Alternative Investments) at the Wealth Professional Canada Awards; the leading awards event for the Canadian wealth management industry.
It is Northland Wealth’s ability to access ‘best in class’ alternative asset managers from around the word which can help to protect and grow each family’s wealth over generations to come. Our extensive and proprietary network is unmatched by the Canadian banks, investment dealers and advisors.
As we celebrate our 8th Anniversary we welcome you to this edition ofThe Artisan. Our lead story “Revisiting the Value of Value” was published in the Financial Post Magazine this past autumn. We then delve into the sometimes complex subject of financial planning “It’s Not Just About the Math”. While the phrase“May You Live in Interesting Times” is sometimes construed as a curse, in this situation we highlight Northland’s efforts and approach into understanding the global risks or potential ‘black swan’ events to better protect each family’s wealth. We hope that you enjoy these insights along with our Quarterly Market Commentary and more.
The Global Economy No. 6 - September 11, 2012Swedbank
The document discusses developments in global monetary policy and the economic outlook. It notes that central banks, particularly the ECB and Federal Reserve, are expected to pursue more accommodative monetary policies to support growth. However, the effects on unemployment and real economic growth are expected to be small. More should be done through fiscal reforms and "unconventional fiscal policy" to boost growth. The ECB has launched a new bond-buying program called OMT, but its impact depends on reforms in crisis-hit countries and there are risks to the ECB's independence.
The document discusses the shift in global economic power from developed to emerging markets. It notes that emerging markets now make up 24% of global equity market capitalization, attracted by higher growth prospects. Developed nations face decades of low growth and high debt levels from stimulus measures. Emerging economies like China, India, Brazil are seen as the next generation of growth engines, with investors pouring money into these markets. Going forward, emerging markets will play a more prominent role in the global economy and its management.
This document provides a summary and analysis of current economic and market conditions:
1) Corporate profits in the US have declined significantly in the past two quarters, dropping profits to 2006 levels and reducing profit margins from unprecedented highs.
2) Stock market valuations by several measures, including price-to-earnings ratios and corporate sector value to market capitalization, are at very rich levels seen only during the tech bubble, suggesting low future returns.
3) Central bank policies have kept interest rates low and driven investment into stocks, but this is masking weaker underlying corporate earnings. As monetary policies normalize, stock markets may face challenges.
The document summarizes the economic recessions in Japan and the United States. It discusses how Japan experienced a "lost decade" after its bubble economy collapsed in the early 1990s, bringing an end to its post-war growth. Despite monetary and fiscal stimulus, Japan struggled with deflation and a liquidity trap. The US also experienced recessions in the 2000s and late 2000s due to the dot-com bubble bursting and the subprime mortgage crisis.
If The China Bubble Bursts: A Symposium of ViewsEcon Matters
If China's asset bubble were to burst:
1) The surrounding export hubs would be most directly affected initially, with a significant hit to global growth.
2) Foreign companies invested in China would be among the biggest victims as Chinese authorities may force wage hikes or transfers of production capacity to other countries.
3) A bursting bubble could severely damage China's banking sector through non-performing loans if regional governments and real estate investors default on debt, potentially leading to a credit crunch.
- The document discusses whether the current stock market is in a bubble. It notes that by some measures like price-to-earnings ratios, stocks are not yet in bubble territory as they were in 2000.
- It provides several facts to counter the "hair on fire" media coverage of the stock market: there are no true market gurus, markets tend to rise over time, trying to time the market often fails, and cash is not king compared to long term investing in stocks.
- Even if a bubble forms, bubbles always burst eventually but stocks recover over time, so investors should stick to their plan and not panic during downturns.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for December 2011. It discusses the ongoing debt crisis in the Eurozone and whether the Euro will survive. It notes the ideological differences between Germany and other countries in their approaches to dealing with the crisis. Domestically, it comments on the reversal in stance by the Indian opposition on retail FDI and the potential impact on economic momentum. Inflation is expected to fall by the end of the fiscal year. The outlook is cautiously positive on long-term debt as interest rates may fall over the next 2-3 years.
The document discusses the causes and effects of the global financial crisis that began in 2007. It describes how the crisis originated from risky subprime mortgages in the US that were packaged into securities and spread throughout the global financial system. When housing prices declined and borrowers defaulted, it triggered a financial crisis that caused stock market declines, limited investment banking, and severe recessions around the world. Governments responded with stimulus packages, interest rate cuts, and bank bailouts to stabilize markets and economies. Reforms are still needed to prevent future crises through improved financial regulations and oversight.
Jeremy Grantham provides a brief summary of key points in a short quarterly letter due to travel and client conferences. He notes the dire situation in the Eurozone and feels vindicated in his forecast of a multi-year economic slowdown due to high debt levels and financial incompetence. Additionally, developed nations face permanently slower growth due to aging populations and inadequate savings. The US specifically has declining infrastructure, education, and government effectiveness that threaten competitiveness. Grantham recommends avoiding lower quality US stocks but having a normal weight in global equities overall, tilting toward safety, and being willing to hold substantial cash reserves given long-term risks.
The document provides an economic outlook report from May 2011. It discusses several topics:
1) Strong corporate earnings are driving the stock market higher, though interest rates will likely rise as quantitative easing ends.
2) High food and gas prices pose a risk to consumer spending, which could slow economic growth.
3) The large and growing US national debt poses challenges, as interest payments consume a significant portion of the budget and credit rating downgrades could increase interest rates.
The document discusses the importance of stabilizing the housing market to fix the economy. It notes that home ownership represents the foundation of the American Dream and is integral to economic growth. However, risky lending practices led to the housing crash, slowing the market's stabilization. Long-term solutions proposed include a new vision utilizing old American values to rebuild trust and reignite the American Dream.
The document discusses the birth of the taxable event. A taxable event arises when there is an economic fact that generates wealth or adds value. For there to be a taxable event, there must be a legal basis established by tax law that allows the government to collect taxes on said economic fact.
The document discusses the economic depression of 1893 in the United States, comparing the economic conditions of that period to the late 19th century, including high agricultural production and debt levels among farmers that led to falling prices and widespread foreclosures when the economy declined. It also describes the panic of 1893 that triggered the depression, the international impacts, and the political and social responses, as well as how the economy eventually recovered but looked quite different by the late 1890s with new industries on the rise.
This document provides an overview and analysis of economic events in 2008. It discusses the large declines in stock markets and other asset classes that year due to the unwinding of the debt bubble. It criticizes the new presidential administration's plans to stimulate the economy through large government spending programs, arguing this approach did not work during the Great Depression and will likely not work now. The document proposes eliminating all corporate and business income taxes as a better way to stimulate the economy with little cost to taxpayers. It claims this would lower business costs, generate cash flows, attract foreign capital, and make the U.S. the most competitive economy. However, it acknowledges this proposal will likely not be adopted.
This document summarizes the key findings from an analysis of past deleveraging cycles in the US economy in the mid-1970s and early 1990s. Some of the main points include:
- Past deleveraging cycles were actually good periods for stock market performance and saw leadership from consumer discretionary and technology stocks.
- Deleveraging is a lagging phenomenon that typically occurs late in an economic slowdown.
- Housing activity, as measured by building permits, tended to bottom out early in past deleveraging cycles and then rise steadily through the cycle.
- Inflation tended to decline during deleveraging periods, suggesting disinflation may lie ahead.
- Mon
Lpl Financial Research Weekly Market Commentary Nov. 19th, 2012chrisphil
1. The fiscal cliff is causing significant investor anxiety as evidenced by a 7% drop in the S&P 500 since mid-September.
2. Investors are experiencing the five stages of grief around the fiscal cliff: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. Most investors have moved past denial and are currently in the bargaining stage.
3. A short-term or partial deal that kicks the can down the road may increase market volatility while a comprehensive long-term solution would reduce uncertainty and increase business and consumer confidence.
The document discusses highlights for 2012 including:
1) An upward bias for stocks in the range of 1,100 to 1,550 and low bias for interest rates in the first half of 2012, though headwinds and uncertainty may arise quickly.
2) 2012 will be a significant time of historical transformations as pressures build from unresolved issues like high global debt and political unrest, similar to the 1970s-1980s.
3) TSWM will maintain a well-thought-out asset allocation plan and conservative balance to mitigate emotional decision-making as volatility increases, relying on sound portfolio principles.
The document discusses the threat of economic stagnation in Western countries and the challenges of austerity. It argues that while austerity measures may seem moderate from a regional perspective, they have profoundly negative effects on individual crisis-struck countries. Stimulus packages implemented in response to the financial crisis should have been combined with structural reforms. Different types of recessions require different policy responses - balance sheet recessions like in the US need continued fiscal support, while Southern European crises stem more from structural issues and require fiscal consolidation paired with reforms.
The document provides an asset allocation and market outlook for the second quarter of 2009 from BlackRock. It summarizes views on global equity, fixed income, currency and commodity markets. Key points include:
- Equity markets have rallied from oversold levels but volatility will likely continue; higher risk assets should outperform over 2009. Within equities, favor healthcare, energy and technology.
- For fixed income, focus on higher quality investments like agencies and select corporate bonds; municipal bonds remain attractive.
- The US dollar will likely strengthen with risk aversion and weaken with improved risk appetite. Oil prices should rise through 2009 as recovery signs emerge.
Merrill Lynch seeks to do business with companies it covers in research reports, so it may have conflicts of interest that could affect the objectivity of its reports. Investors should consider Merrill Lynch reports as one factor among many in their investment decisions. Customers can receive independent third-party research on covered companies at no cost if available.
Northland Wealth Management is proud to have won for the 2nd consecutive year Advisor of the Year (Alternative Investments) at the Wealth Professional Canada Awards; the leading awards event for the Canadian wealth management industry.
It is Northland Wealth’s ability to access ‘best in class’ alternative asset managers from around the word which can help to protect and grow each family’s wealth over generations to come. Our extensive and proprietary network is unmatched by the Canadian banks, investment dealers and advisors.
As we celebrate our 8th Anniversary we welcome you to this edition ofThe Artisan. Our lead story “Revisiting the Value of Value” was published in the Financial Post Magazine this past autumn. We then delve into the sometimes complex subject of financial planning “It’s Not Just About the Math”. While the phrase“May You Live in Interesting Times” is sometimes construed as a curse, in this situation we highlight Northland’s efforts and approach into understanding the global risks or potential ‘black swan’ events to better protect each family’s wealth. We hope that you enjoy these insights along with our Quarterly Market Commentary and more.
The Global Economy No. 6 - September 11, 2012Swedbank
The document discusses developments in global monetary policy and the economic outlook. It notes that central banks, particularly the ECB and Federal Reserve, are expected to pursue more accommodative monetary policies to support growth. However, the effects on unemployment and real economic growth are expected to be small. More should be done through fiscal reforms and "unconventional fiscal policy" to boost growth. The ECB has launched a new bond-buying program called OMT, but its impact depends on reforms in crisis-hit countries and there are risks to the ECB's independence.
The document discusses the shift in global economic power from developed to emerging markets. It notes that emerging markets now make up 24% of global equity market capitalization, attracted by higher growth prospects. Developed nations face decades of low growth and high debt levels from stimulus measures. Emerging economies like China, India, Brazil are seen as the next generation of growth engines, with investors pouring money into these markets. Going forward, emerging markets will play a more prominent role in the global economy and its management.
This document provides a summary and analysis of current economic and market conditions:
1) Corporate profits in the US have declined significantly in the past two quarters, dropping profits to 2006 levels and reducing profit margins from unprecedented highs.
2) Stock market valuations by several measures, including price-to-earnings ratios and corporate sector value to market capitalization, are at very rich levels seen only during the tech bubble, suggesting low future returns.
3) Central bank policies have kept interest rates low and driven investment into stocks, but this is masking weaker underlying corporate earnings. As monetary policies normalize, stock markets may face challenges.
The document summarizes the economic recessions in Japan and the United States. It discusses how Japan experienced a "lost decade" after its bubble economy collapsed in the early 1990s, bringing an end to its post-war growth. Despite monetary and fiscal stimulus, Japan struggled with deflation and a liquidity trap. The US also experienced recessions in the 2000s and late 2000s due to the dot-com bubble bursting and the subprime mortgage crisis.
If The China Bubble Bursts: A Symposium of ViewsEcon Matters
If China's asset bubble were to burst:
1) The surrounding export hubs would be most directly affected initially, with a significant hit to global growth.
2) Foreign companies invested in China would be among the biggest victims as Chinese authorities may force wage hikes or transfers of production capacity to other countries.
3) A bursting bubble could severely damage China's banking sector through non-performing loans if regional governments and real estate investors default on debt, potentially leading to a credit crunch.
- The document discusses whether the current stock market is in a bubble. It notes that by some measures like price-to-earnings ratios, stocks are not yet in bubble territory as they were in 2000.
- It provides several facts to counter the "hair on fire" media coverage of the stock market: there are no true market gurus, markets tend to rise over time, trying to time the market often fails, and cash is not king compared to long term investing in stocks.
- Even if a bubble forms, bubbles always burst eventually but stocks recover over time, so investors should stick to their plan and not panic during downturns.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for December 2011. It discusses the ongoing debt crisis in the Eurozone and whether the Euro will survive. It notes the ideological differences between Germany and other countries in their approaches to dealing with the crisis. Domestically, it comments on the reversal in stance by the Indian opposition on retail FDI and the potential impact on economic momentum. Inflation is expected to fall by the end of the fiscal year. The outlook is cautiously positive on long-term debt as interest rates may fall over the next 2-3 years.
The document discusses the causes and effects of the global financial crisis that began in 2007. It describes how the crisis originated from risky subprime mortgages in the US that were packaged into securities and spread throughout the global financial system. When housing prices declined and borrowers defaulted, it triggered a financial crisis that caused stock market declines, limited investment banking, and severe recessions around the world. Governments responded with stimulus packages, interest rate cuts, and bank bailouts to stabilize markets and economies. Reforms are still needed to prevent future crises through improved financial regulations and oversight.
Jeremy Grantham provides a brief summary of key points in a short quarterly letter due to travel and client conferences. He notes the dire situation in the Eurozone and feels vindicated in his forecast of a multi-year economic slowdown due to high debt levels and financial incompetence. Additionally, developed nations face permanently slower growth due to aging populations and inadequate savings. The US specifically has declining infrastructure, education, and government effectiveness that threaten competitiveness. Grantham recommends avoiding lower quality US stocks but having a normal weight in global equities overall, tilting toward safety, and being willing to hold substantial cash reserves given long-term risks.
The document provides an economic outlook report from May 2011. It discusses several topics:
1) Strong corporate earnings are driving the stock market higher, though interest rates will likely rise as quantitative easing ends.
2) High food and gas prices pose a risk to consumer spending, which could slow economic growth.
3) The large and growing US national debt poses challenges, as interest payments consume a significant portion of the budget and credit rating downgrades could increase interest rates.
The document discusses the importance of stabilizing the housing market to fix the economy. It notes that home ownership represents the foundation of the American Dream and is integral to economic growth. However, risky lending practices led to the housing crash, slowing the market's stabilization. Long-term solutions proposed include a new vision utilizing old American values to rebuild trust and reignite the American Dream.
The document discusses the birth of the taxable event. A taxable event arises when there is an economic fact that generates wealth or adds value. For there to be a taxable event, there must be a legal basis established by tax law that allows the government to collect taxes on said economic fact.
The document discusses the economic depression of 1893 in the United States, comparing the economic conditions of that period to the late 19th century, including high agricultural production and debt levels among farmers that led to falling prices and widespread foreclosures when the economy declined. It also describes the panic of 1893 that triggered the depression, the international impacts, and the political and social responses, as well as how the economy eventually recovered but looked quite different by the late 1890s with new industries on the rise.
Radio continues to reach over 235 million people in the US each week, more than any other media. It remains highly relevant, with over 90% of those with incomes over $50k or who spend $150+ per week on groceries listening to radio. National advertisers have more than doubled their radio spending over the past decade as radio provides strong reach and engagement. Radio also continues to innovate through new distribution platforms and expanding its digital offerings.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
This executive search firm focuses on recruiting for the marketing communications industry. They recruit nationally for both client-side and agency-side positions, drawing from their database of over 20,000 candidates across various marketing disciplines. They qualify candidates before presenting them to clients, fully prepping candidates to match client needs. Their clients, who include CEOs and directors of marketing, seek them out for consultative searches when other routes have come up short.
The document promotes a new video communication technology company called MyVideoTalk that allows users to send video emails, host video meetings, and earn income by recruiting others. It describes several new video products and services, highlights growth projections for the video communication market, and outlines an 8-tier compensation plan with bonuses, commissions, and a potential to earn over $100,000 per year. The opportunity involves a $220 one-time setup fee to become a distributor.
Mobile Phone Tips recommends using a hands-free set to reduce radiation exposure from mobile phones, holding the phone at the bottom end away from the body, and using the phone where reception is strong to reduce power output and radiation. It also advises keeping calls brief, using landlines when possible, and being considerate of others when using mobile phones.
Yahoo! Search Boss at Alt Search Engines 03 2009YahooSearchBlog
Three key points about the document:
1. The search market is dominated by three major players, requiring huge investments of $300M or more in capital, people, and infrastructure to become a serious competitor.
2. Search provides a very profitable business model with monopoly-like margins and half the world's online advertising expected to flow through Google by 2009.
3. The Yahoo! BOSS API provides access to Yahoo's search indexes through a web services model, allowing developers to build customized search products and experiences while paying usage fees or sharing revenue from Yahoo ads.
She adores hats. She is always very polite and respectful of others. She waves to everyone, and consistently avoids conflict. She is a lady; she is The Queen.
Without a doubt, Queen Elizabeth lives a life quite unlike everyone else in the World – after all, royalty does have its privileges. Yet, when it comes to investing, the Queen is swimming in the same pool of stock market sharks as us common people.
Like everyone else, she pours through her quarterly statements to see how she’s fared. And like everyone else, she loves to make money and simply deplores negative returns. It was rumored that the 2008 crisis hit her particularly hard – over USD 40 million in stock market losses.
This experience must have jilted something, as when The Queen was visiting the esteemed London School of Economics she asked the professor a rather “un-queen” like question – why did economists fail to predict the biggest global recession since the Great Depression?
Watch the following video and respond to the questions belowhtt.docxmelbruce90096
Watch the following video and respond to the questions below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImQrUjlyHUg
(1) What is your opinion of Mark Pagel's explanation of language and humanity? (i.e., do you think his explanation of the evolution of language adequately addresses how humans have been impacted by the ability to communicate).
(2) How do you think "social learning" has influenced humanity? (think of the good and bad).
(3) Are there any additional thoughts that came to mind as you were watching this video?
Don’t Look Back in Anger at Bailouts and Stimulus
By Alan S. Blinder And Mark Zandi
The Wall Street Journal
Oct. 15, 2015 6:32 p.m. ET
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in an Oct. 6 interview on the Fox Business Network. PHOTO:
RICHARD DREW/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Without the emergency measures of 2008-09, the U.S.
economy would be far worse off today.
The publicity surrounding former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s memoir prompts a
look-back at the stunning array of policy responses promulgated by the Fed, Congress and two
administrations to avert catastrophe during the financial crisis in 2008-09. This is important
because many of these initiatives haven’t aged well in the eyes of politicians and the public.
TARP, fiscal stimulus, quantitative easing and auto bailout remain dirty words to many people
who increasingly blame them for prolonging the Great Recession and the slow pace of recovery.
But in a study released Thursday for the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, we found the
reverse to be true: These extraordinary policies ended the crisis and jump-started an economic
recovery that is stronger in the U.S. than in most countries.
Specifically, we estimate that:
• The peak-to-trough decline in real gross domestic product, which was barely more than 4%,
would have been close to a stunning 14%.
• The contraction would have lasted three years, more than twice as long as it did.
Don’t Look Back in Anger at Bailouts and Stimulus
By Alan S. Blinder And Mark Zandi
The Wall Street Journal
Oct. 15, 2015 6:32 p.m. ET
• More than 17 million jobs would have been lost, about twice the actual number.
• Unemployment would have peaked at just under 16%, rather than at 10%.
• The federal budget deficit would have ballooned to $2.8 trillion, equal to 18% of GDP,
compared with its actual peak of 10%.
• Today’s economy would be far weaker than it is—with real GDP about $800 billion lower, 3.6
million fewer jobs, and unemployment still at 7.6%.
The overwhelming nature of the fiscal and monetary policy responses is the main reason we
didn’t suffer a much-worse fate. Yet history is in danger of giving the powerful 2008-09
responses a misguided Bronx cheer.
Start with TARP. The Troubled Asset Relief Program was deeply unpopular in part because it
was so large—a $700 billion bailout fund—and aimed primarily at “Wall Street.” It felt wrong to
bail out guilty parties, and many.
IN THIS SUMMARY
Economists and business leaders alike are still trying to understand the forces that led to the United States’ current economic woes. Some believe it is a down financial cycle or a recession, but in Aftershock, David Wiedemer, Robert Wiedemer, and Cindy Spitzer detail why they believe that neither explanation is correct. They describe what they have termed a Bubblequake–a popping of the real estate bubble, the private debt bubble, the stock market bubble, and the discretionary spending bubble. More alarming is that the economy is not going back to the way it was before because there are still more economic bubbles waiting to burst.
SUBSCRIBE TODAY
http://www.bizsum.com/summaries/aftershock
Michael Durante Western Reserve Blackwall Partners 1Q12Michael Durante
Blackwall Partners posted a 30% return for Q1 2012. They believe financial firms are fundamentally strong but undervalued due to political attacks exaggerating risk. The fundamentals of financials are appealing, with record profits and excess capital. However, low valuations and high volatility make financial stocks a "winning hand". The author argues the equity risk premium has collapsed to levels not seen since WWI and negative yield gaps indicate a bull market. They believe regulations holding back banks will be reduced, allowing earnings growth and higher payouts that will drive financial stock prices and ownership higher over time. However, some volatility is expected in the short term.
September 13 Quarterly: Gotta' know when to hold 'em, when to fold 'emMark_Krygier
- Less Americans are investing in stocks since the 2000 tech bubble and 2008 recession, with the percentage of investors dropping from 60% to 52%.
- Investors must understand their own investment needs and timelines in order to make wise decisions about buying, holding, or selling investments during periods of price fluctuation.
- Short-term investments should be used for near-term needs while long-term investments suited for growth, like stocks and real estate, require ignoring short-term price changes.
- The document is Jeremy Grantham's shortest quarterly letter ever, consisting of brief notes to himself on various economic issues.
- Grantham expresses concern about the eurozone crisis and feels vindicated in his forecast of "seven lean years" for economic recovery due to high debt levels and financial incompetence.
- He also notes that developed economies have permanently slowed due to aging populations and overcommitment to older generations, leaving less resources for growth.
- In the US specifically, infrastructure and education have declined relative to other countries, threatening competitiveness, while inequality and social mobility have drastically worsened.
This document discusses how times of crisis often signal structural changes in the economy. It argues we may be experiencing such a structural break now, as the past year's events have highlighted unsustainable trends like high household debt and leverage in the financial system. A structural break presents both challenges and opportunities - it can be a difficult time for adjustment, but also a time when new sources of competitive advantage can emerge for strategists able to understand and exploit the change. The key is recognizing when old patterns no longer work and focusing on strengthening one's competitive advantages for the new economic environment.
The document discusses the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis and its impact on the current global economic situation. It notes that the Asian crisis involved major economic problems in Southeast Asian countries like Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. This crisis contributed to an oversupply of US dollars that has impacted the global economy. Foreign investors flooded money into Asian countries without understanding the risks, fueling real estate and stock market bubbles. When the bubbles burst, it led to worldwide economic repercussions still being felt today.
Arbuthnot Latham: Global Markets Report Q1 2019Siôn Puckle
Our report discusses general developments within global markets over the first quarter of 2019, with a focus on the issues influencing portfolios. Following an economic and market summary, we expand upon a number of themes before concluding with a review of the major asset classes.
Rinaldi's Smith School of Business Students Discuss Key Findings from Recent ...Joseph Rinaldi
Professor Joe Rinaldi has built up valuable relationships during his thirty years of capital markets and asset management experience. Giving his students access to these market leaders is a cornerstone of Professor Rinaldi's teaching strategy at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, College Park.
Professor Rinaldi and his friends at Barron’s firmly believe in combining real world experience into formal education. Professor Rinaldi stated, “This Smith/Barron’s opportunity compliments my core philosophy to educate and assist students in beginning their careers in finance and investments. Our friends at Barron’s were kind enough to waive the $1,295.00 registration fee for each of our four students to attend their “Art of Successful Investing Conference.” The event was held on October 22nd at the Metropolitan Club in New York City. It was a one-day, limited-seating event that the premier financial magazine and website publisher described as a one-of-a-kind opportunity "to see and hear from investing luminaries at one place, at one time."
Professor Rinaldi's students participated in roundtable discussions on many key topics including domestic and global economic trends, individual stock picking strategies, U.S. presidential election insights, options strategies and practiced their networking skills. They heard and learned from some of the biggest names in the investment world. The experience they gained was priceless, especially since Barron's will not be making available a broadcast, replay, or repackaging of this information.
Students in Professor Rinaldi’s Futures, Options and Derivatives class (BMGT 444) are typically seniors who are looking ahead to their next stage in life - getting a job after they graduate. They enjoyed advantaged access to many potential employers at the event like Felix Zulauf of Zulauf Asset Management; Dan Fuss, Vice Chairman of Loomis Sayles, Meryl Witmer of Eagle Capital, Pat Neal of Treepoint Capital, as well as other members of the Barron's Roundtable.
The selection of the four students was extremely competitive. The screening process included submission of résumés, GPA scores greater than 3.8/4,0, relevant work experience, and a one-on-one interview. The four students who earned attendance include; Matya Magnezi, Justin Licameli, Alex Blum and Jon Szakelyhidi.
The students co-authored a White Paper (see above) on what they had learned and presented their findings orally during the Market Color segment of Professor Rinaldi's Futures, Options and Derivatives class.
Richard Ramsey delivered a presentation to the Personal Financial Society's Financial Planning in Focus Conference on November 8th, 2016. Here are the slides
This document provides an overview of All Star Financial, an independent fee-only financial advisory firm. It discusses the firm's services, investment philosophy, and approach to managing client portfolios. Key points include:
1. All Star Financial provides personal and corporate financial planning, investment management, and tax services. They manage client assets using mutual funds, ETFs, stocks, and bonds.
2. The firm's investment approach focuses on reducing risk and volatility through strategic asset allocation and diversification. They emphasize keeping what you earn over maximizing returns.
3. Examples from past economic cycles and market downturns illustrate why diversification and staying the course are important strategies during volatile periods. Panicking and making
CBRE 31-12-12, global vision about property markets. A little late to share it, but an interesting document to keep up-to-date with the real estate investment world.
- The document discusses new approaches to investment management that focus on risk awareness and absolute returns rather than benchmark returns. It summarizes recent volatility in traditional asset classes and the growth of absolute return funds in response. Absolute return funds aim to provide positive returns regardless of market conditions through diversification of investment strategies and philosophies rather than just asset types. The document argues for looking beyond traditional indexes to find investment opportunities and evaluating portfolios based on their allocation of risk rather than just asset types.
This document summarizes the state of commercial real estate markets in light of the global economic recession. It notes that while some economic indicators are improving, job recovery will likely lag and take several years. This will negatively impact real estate markets as office and retail vacancies rise and rents decline due to lack of job growth and consumer spending. The multi-family sector may fare better due to pent-up demand from new households. But overall, real estate market recovery is expected to follow the slow job recovery with a prolonged period of mixed results and flat performance.
The document discusses the growing threat of cyberattacks and why they could cause a global crisis. It notes that over 30 countries have implemented cybersecurity strategies in response. However, the threat is outpacing these initiatives as organizations become more dependent on digital technologies and data. The risks are particularly concerning for critical infrastructure industries like energy, banking, and manufacturing. Companies have significantly increased their cyber insurance coverage in response, with healthcare firms buying 178% more coverage and utilities 98% more on average since 2012. The document concludes that greater data dependence and potential impacts of breaches mean cyberattacks remain one of the top risks for causing a global crisis.
SLG believes the U.S. is entering a recession due to problems in the energy sector that will spread to the broader economy. While past recessions were caused by bubbles bursting, this downturn stems from an oil and gas supply glut that has driven down prices. The Fed cannot bail out struggling energy companies like it did banks in 2008. Job losses in oil, construction, and industrial sectors will reduce consumer spending and further weaken the economy. SLG is positioning itself to capitalize on opportunities that will emerge over the next 12-24 months as the market adjusts.
The document discusses five hypothetical asset allocation portfolios ranging from conservative to aggressive over nine decades from the 1930s through 2015. It provides a high-level overview of each decade and how the portfolios would have performed, with the aggressive portfolio having the highest returns but also the most volatility, while the income portfolio had lower returns but was the least volatile. It also provides economic context for each decade.
Presentation by Herman Kienhuis (Curiosity VC) on Investing in AI for ABS Alu...Herman Kienhuis
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But wait. What happens when you fully integrate your WhatsApp campaigns with HubSpot?
That's exactly what we explored in this session.
We take a look at everything that you need to know in order to deploy effective WhatsApp marketing strategies, and integrate it with your buyer journey in HubSpot. From technical requirements to innovative campaign strategies, to advanced campaign reporting - we discuss all that and more, to leverage WhatsApp for maximum impact. Check out more details about the event here https://events.hubspot.com/events/details/hubspot-new-delhi-presents-unlocking-whatsapp-marketing-with-hubspot-integrating-messaging-into-your-marketing-strategy/
AI Transformation Playbook: Thinking AI-First for Your BusinessArijit Dutta
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Adani Group's Active Interest In Increasing Its Presence in the Cement Manufa...Adani case
Time and again, the business group has taken up new business ventures, each of which has allowed it to expand its horizons further and reach new heights. Even amidst the Adani CBI Investigation, the firm has always focused on improving its cement business.
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1 Circular 003_2023 ISO 27001_2022 Transition Arrangments v3.pdf
Impact Fall 2009
1. 1Impact Fall 2009 Edition
Ryan & Coppola Law Firm, LLC Investor’s Guide
The Prince Charles Effect
Q ueen Elizabeth II was born in April, 1926.
She ascended to the throne in 1952 upon the
death of her father, King George VI. Her
eldest son and heir apparent Prince Charles was born
Current business leaders can learn an invaluable
lesson from the Royal line. Succession plans and
demographics are the keys to the impact of these
in 1948. Prince Charles’s eldest son Prince William leaders, the experienced and the unproven.
was born in June, 1982. Their respective ages are 83,
61, and 27. Demographics: The characteristics of human
populations and population segments, especially
The Queen’s accomplishments are considerable; the when used to identify consumer markets: The
era of her rule begins with “the greatest generation” demographics of the Southwest indicate a growing
and continues into the 21st century. population of older consumers.
Charles, first born of the Baby Boom: Charles has As we seek safe passage from the longest recession
worked in the military, architecture, urban planning, on record, as we look for signs that the markets –
charities, and his functions as the Prince of Wales. investment, residential, commercial property,
insurance, and banking - begin to trade consistently,
William, first born of the Millennials: Following in we need confidence that our business and personal
the education and military traditions of the Royal plans are ready for trade growth. These plans guide us
Family, William is currently working in Search & toward financial strength and independence. They are
Rescue with the Royal Air Force. William is part of guides for peace of mind.
the rising “Digital Generation,” the first generation
weaned on digital technology. Trade expansion in 2010 involves more than
executing the business plan. Study the demographics
The Queen’s reign is fifty-seven years and counting. of the economy where you participate – local,
Charles will potentially reign a maximum of twenty national, or global. The recession branded the strong
years. William’s reign could be thirty or more years. and weak regions. The demographics highlight the
skills that separate the strong from the weak –
What will be the “Prince Charles Effect?” Will college/trade education, digital skills, and strong
Charles: practical experience vs. limited education, limited
1. Focus simply to serve his short-term legacy? digital skills, and limited opportunity/experience.
2. Connect the history and technology between
the two centuries and the generations for If you lead a business today, developing the
Great Britain’s long-term benefit? succession plan is as critical as your business plan.
The Prince Charles effect defines the contribution of
2. today’s aging leadership – in politics, business, and A second stimulus may yet be required to stabilize
government. the consumer. Our stimulus proposal is simple:
Provide a 4.5% fixed interest rate to qualified primary
Economic Update homeowners to buy or refinance their homes for
We recorded the following positions in the last
newsletter: 2010. The productive consumers who own property
and pay their bills will reap a windfall of $300 or
Late summer 2009 should provide clear signs of more in monthly disposable income to invest, pay
recovery. Most economists agree that this recession down debt, or spend with a conservative manner
will officially end in late 2009 – we believe the borne from the Panic.
recession may be ending now. A jobless recovery is States can participate by lowering home sale closing
predicted –we believe too many workers were let go costs. They would gain more income via the higher
and need to be rehired as this recovery gains strength. volume of sales.
As vacant, foreclosed, and unsold home inventories
We lost vast sums of wealth in 2008, and almost all decline, the overall value of the “toxic assets”
citizens suffered in the economic breakdown. increases. Our housing market begins normal trading
The S&P 500 has gained 40% or more of the losses patterns. Confidence and market value are restored.
from a year ago. Financial panics cause a loss in the
broad spectrum of the market, not in specific industry When will we see progress and regain our
categories (i.e. tech boom/bust). Recovery should strength? The markets are slowly moving forward.
continue for the patient quality investor at a swift The gains will be slow at first. Momentum will
pace. increase each quarter in 2010. Make your plans to
participate in this recovery now. The upside potential
We lost confidence in our systems. We have is much higher than the downside, and the deliberate
adjusted our lifestyles rapidly, and we have adapted risk taker will be rewarded.
to this “economic reset.” Legitimate confidence
requires a stronger economic base, and new
leadership.
Impact Top Stocks for 2009 (Global)
Our leaders failed at virtually every level. Company Quote 1-1-09 09-01-09
There is little change in the executive or political Price Price
suite. Board directors affect the former; we cast our GE GE 12.90 13.34
ballots to affect the latter. Lafarge LFRGY 11.95 20.35
Pfizer PFE 17.11 16.38
The Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury, Congress, MBIA* MBI 3.08 6.13
White House and Justice Department are now in BB&T BBT 19.81 26.64
full attack to address and correct the fallout. The AES AES 8.04 13.25
stimulus funds are reaching state and local projects, Dupont DD 23.53 31.05
but less than 25% has been utilized. Arch Coal* ACI 15.45 16.88
PetroBrasil PBR 23.78 38.95
The three key ingredients we need to move FndtnCoal FCL 15.16 35.93
forward are time, trust, and confidence.
Iron Mtn IRM 22.04 28.56
The current healthcare debate indicates that trust and
confidence need more time. Americans desire facts, *Author owns stock shares.
clarity and honesty.
Investors are slowly moving forward into the
markets. The “trading market” of hedge funds and The views and information discussed in the commentaries
professionals continue, but investors see potential at are as of the date of publication, are subject to change, and
may not reflect the views of the firm as a whole. The views
current prices for long term gains.
expressed in the commentaries are at a specific point in
time, are opinions only, and should not be relied upon as a
3. forecast, research, or investment advice regarding a recession, like the US. The UK economy shrunk 0.8%
particular investment or the markets in general. in the second quarter, while Italy’s was down 0.5%.
Information discussed should not be considered a
recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Unlike in the UK, however, economists in the US
believe the worst may be behind them. ‘‘It’s quite
possible, though not certain, that retrospectively,
Six of world's top 10 economies out of recession we’ll say that the recession ended in July or August,
may be September,’’ Nobel laureate Paul Krugman
Some light showed up at the end of the recession was quoted as saying.
tunnel on Wednesday as France and Germany
announced unexpected returns to the growth path, There is evidence that his is not undue optimism. The
which means that four of the world’s five largest pace of job losses in the US slowed more than
economies and six of the top 10 are now not in forecast in July and the unemployment rate dropped
recession. for the first time in more than a year. US GDP also
shrank by just 0.3% (equivalent to an annualized 1%)
Adding to the sense of optimism, the US Federal in the seconnd-quarter after a 6.4% drop in the
Reserve left rates unchanged, saying that the world’s previous three months.
largest economy was showing signs of leveling out.
Both France and Germany had been predicted by That explains why US Federal Reserve is willing to
most economists to face a decline of about 0.3% in bet that the nosedive the economy had witnessed in
their GDPs for the second quarter (April-June) of recent months is behind it. Over the last two years,
2009, but they surprised themselves and the rest of the US has witnessed its worst financial crisis in
the world by announcing that they’ve actually decades, but that could be ending, which is good news
recorded growth of 0.3% each. for the world since it accounts for a fifth of global
GDP.
Among the five largest economies of the world, 8-14-09 The Economic Times
measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) dollars —
which is more of an apples to apples comparison — Despite Promising Signs, Many Wary that
China and India are already growing at healthy rates, Recession's Knockout Punch Could Still Come
although lower than their own pace for the last few Commercial Real Estate Industry Says Recovery is
years. Japan too has climbed out of recession and so Not Around the Corner
has Germany. These economies and the US account The End Is Near (for This Recession).
for 47% of world GDP in PPP terms. So read some of the economic placards that have
been trotted out in policy statements these days with
The Eurozone as a whole is also now projected to catchphrases such as 'Sustainable Recovery.'
have contracted by just 0.1% compared to the 2.5% 'Recession Is Coming To An End.' 'Policy Actions
fall in GDP in the first quarter (January-March). The Having an
growth rates reported by Germany and France may Effect.' 'Seeing Green Shoots of Growth.' and 'The
seem like nothing to get excited about, but Crisis Has Stabilized.' Many pointed to the more than
considering that German GDP shrunk by 3.5% in the 2,000-point climb in the Dow Industrial Average over
first quarter and France’s by 1.3%, it is quite a smart the last three months as proof that federal stimulus
turnaround. measures appeared to be having an effect in rousing
the slumping economy.
Among the world’s other large economies, Brazil is
also now no longer in recession having grown by Just this week, chief economists from JPMorgan
1.5% in the second quarter. Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co., PNC Financial
Services Group, Morgan Stanley and others said they
Among the world’s large economies, UK, which is expect the economy to "recover from its deep slump
the seventh largest and Italy, the tenth, remain in by late summer." The group that makes up the
Economic Advisory Committee of the American
4. Bankers said they expect the nation's gross domestic
product (GDP) to increase 0.5% in the July- I believe the real question lies in what the Federal
September quarter – this after falling a projected Reserve System will do. They can exponentially
1.8% in the April-June period. create liquidity or illiquidity with their actions. Given
Such signs have raised hopes that the end of the that they are a private bank with little real oversight,
recession may be in sight and that it is time to turn it is hard to say what their motives are and what their
attention to making money again among real estate actions will be. As we all know, commercial real
investors and service providers. We put those estate
questions to CoStar Group customers and readers. Do won't recover until banks start making loans again.
they see the end in sight and what do they see the The credit tightening has caused massive devaluation
future holding for the commercial real estate and has resulting in an evaporation of trillions of
industry? This article will address comments on the dollars of wealth in this country. Private central banks
first question have historically manipulated markets all over the
world. Unfortunately, I think our Federal Reserve
So, is the end of the recession near? Not as far as Bank is no different and we're experiencing that.
commercial real estate is concerned, was the
overwhelming answer we received. The downturn will not bottom out until the
"Since they repaired the Hubble Telescope last government pulls away from the podium. Until then,
month, I suppose someone could argue the end of the we will continue to see fluctuations in the economy
downturn could be theoretically 'in sight.' Otherwise, and a snail's pace velocity in real estate. For example,
the way we see it, not so much. The system is still too we learned yesterday that [President Obama] is
much of a cauldron of bad debt, soon-to-be bad debt, seeking more power to take over any company "too
nonexistent credit availability and weak big to
employment drivers," said Steven D. Sandler, CEO of fail." With that news, foreign stock markets declined,
Crosswind Capital LLC in Rye, NY. as did our market. Even though real estate works in
If you compare the economy to a boxing match, the conjunction with the economy, the federal
recession has probably delivered its worst blows. But government has added even more downward pressure
according to comments made by CoStar Group via TARP [Troubled Asset Relief Program]. TARP
readers, commercial real estate may still have more has created a stalemate in the troubled asset arena. As
rounds left to fight and the recession may still have a long as money is pumped into banks without having
knockout punch: to off-load assets, we will not see the RTC-type
Federal initiatives are prolonging the hurt by discounts.
artificially propping up banks' troubled real estate June, 2009 CoStar.com
assets.
Maturing debt loads and rising loan defaults will
continue to keep property values and deals down for a
long time.
Consumer spending is weak and continues to fall
because of deteriorating net worth in home values and
rising unemployment.
All of which are continuing to hurt property
fundamentals, and will likely continue to do so until
real growth returns, which is not in sight.
The following are excerpts of comments and insights
from wide sample of real estate executives across the
country who say the industry is still in for a
protracted fight. Next week, we'll take a look at what
the industry can look for and what it will look like
when recovery does begin.