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HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
Methodology
Adobe Experience Cloud Adobe Analytics Cloud
Most comprehensive report of its kind in industry
Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data via:
 Adobe Analytics measures 80% of online transactions at the largest 100 U.S. web retailers**
 Report based on analysis of 1 trillion visits to over 4,500 retail websites and 55 million SKUs
 Product and pricing analysis based on 6 million average daily orders during November and December
**Source Internet Retailer 2017.
HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
Key findings
1. Online holiday shopping season in 2017 tops expectations. Online shopping totaled $108.2B during
the 2017 holiday season, representing 14.7% growth year-over year ($107.4B, 13.8% growth predicted)
2. The Thanksgiving weekend was one for the record books. Holiday shoppers took full advantage of
deep discounts and spent over $19B dollars during the five days between Thanksgiving and Cyber
Monday
3. Cyber Monday and Black Friday stay dominant and emerge as mobile mega-days. Cyber Monday
was the first day with over $2.0B in mobile shopping alone
4. Big retailers won big, but small retailers competed on key days. The largest retailers saw big holiday
season growth while smaller retailers had an advantage during the Thanksgiving weekend, particularly
on mobile devices
5. Big markets drive holiday growth. The nation’s largest markets saw big growth, particularly on key
days
HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
Online holiday shopping tops expectations
Methodology
Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce
Source
“U.S. holiday shopping season surging towards a strong finish”. 21 December 2017. Reuters. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-holidayshopping/u-s-holiday-
shopping-season-surging-towards-a-strong-finish-idUSKBN1EF2DX
Online holiday shopping season (Nov-Dec) revenue in
the U.S. exceeds prediction at $108.2B ($107.4B
revenue, 13.8% growth predicted) by nearly $1 billion,
totaling $108.2B and 14.7% growth year-over-year
Holiday season totals show faster growth
• The final growth rate in 2017 (14.7%) was slightly
above last year’s (14.4%)
• Revenue from mobile (smartphone and tablet) was
$35.9B (33.1% of online holiday revenue), reflecting
a 28% growth rate in revenue year-over-year
• Online shopping bested predictions in part because
of a strong holiday season in general. Industry and
government reports cite strong consumer
sentiment, low unemployment, and a strong stock
market as driving strong holiday season spending
HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
Black Friday and Cyber Monday dominate the shopping
season
Methodology
Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce
Black Friday and Cyber Monday have
steadily increased their importance
during the holiday season since 2013
• Black Friday represented 21% more of
the shopping season in 2017 (4.6%)
than it did in 2013 (3.8%), while Cyber
Monday represents 15% more of the
shopping season in 2017 (6.1%) than it
did in 2013 (5.3%)
HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
Thanksgiving weekend shoppers set records
Methodology
Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce
Black Friday and Cyber Monday were record days, and
the five-day weekend totaled $19.6B (15.2% growth
year-over-year)
• By the end of the holiday weekend, the season total
was $50 billion (since Nov. 1st), reaching that
revenue milestone 5 days earlier than in 2016
• Black Friday and Cyber Monday remain dominant
but Thanksgiving showed strong growth (18.3%)
year-over year
• The gap between Black Friday and Cyber Monday
didn’t close in 2017 – expect Cyber Monday to
remain the major shopping day
HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
Mobile shines on Thanksgiving weekend
Methodology
Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce
Consumers spent more than ever on their mobile
devices during Thanksgiving weekend in 2017. Over
$7.0B were spent on tablets or smartphones over the
holiday weekend (35.7% of all online revenue during
that time)
• Cyber Monday featured the first mobile shopping
day over $2.0B (30.4% of revenue came from mobile
devices)
• Thanksgiving was the most mobile-heavy day by
share at 41.0% ($1.2B spent on mobile devices),
suggesting that people were shopping while
traveling or with family
• Weekend shoppers were also mobile-focused with
39.5% of revenue on Small Business Saturday and
37.9% on Sunday coming from tablets or
smartphones and ($1.0B on mobile each day)
HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
Record-setting mobile activity during Thanksgiving
weekend
Methodology
Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce
52%/36%
Percent of visits and revenue
coming from a mobile
device.
Premium of an iOS visit over
Android
Online retail sales from
mobile devices for five-day
weekend. +18% over last
year.
Cyber Monday: First day
with more than $2b in
mobile online revenue
Improvement in converting
smartphone traffic.
Improvement in smartphone
average order value
$7.0B $2.0B
+14.2% +1.9% +$0.58
HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
Black Friday shopping starts early, Cyber Monday finishes
late
Methodology
Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce. Time is local time.
On Black Friday, shoppers get an early start – shoppers
shift $350M in orders to the morning (over a typical
shopping day). On Cyber Monday, shoppers wait until just
before deals expire and push $500M than expected into
the evening hours.
Desktops are big during working hours, while tablets and
smartphones peak in the evenings
HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
Large retailers dominate the season, small retailers win the
weekend
Methodology
Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce
Average daily growth rate over the holiday season for
medium-to-large retailers is over twice that of smaller
retailers per year.
2.3x
Average daily growth rate over the five-day weekend for
medium-to-large retailers is 30% less than smaller retailers
per year.
30%
Medium-to-large retailers operate at an advantage
through the holiday season, but small retailers enjoy
an edge during the Thanksgiving weekend
HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
Small retailers win on conversion, big retailers on cart size
Methodology
Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce
…while small retailers have an advantage in converting
visits to purchases, especially on mobile devices
Larger retailers have bigger shopping carts across
devices….
HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
Early-year success predicts Thanksgiving weekend gains
Methodology
Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce
Those retailers that grew more than 10% in the first half of the year saw revenue increases during Thanksgiving
weekend 2.1 times over the average retailer. Those retailers that struggled stayed even with last year’s performance.
HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
E-mail matters, especially during Thanksgiving weekend
Methodology
Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce
Search (natural and paid) led the holiday season
for retailers, while e-mail sees the biggest jump
during the Thanksgiving weekend
• Search drove overall holiday season visits at
44.8% (natural search at 21.3% and paid
search at 23.5%)
• E-mail was prominent during the holiday
season at 20.0% and during the Thanksgiving
weekend, e-mail and social were the only two
channels to show growth (e-mail grew 3.2% in
share during the Thanksgiving weekend)
HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
Big growth in big markets
Methodology
Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce. Demographic trends based on correlation
analysis of Census Bureau data.
More populated markets tend to have more per-
household revenue during the holiday weekend. On
average, doubling the size of a market increases online
sales revenue by 15 to 20%. Other than population size,
other factors were also associated with the fastest
growing e-commerce sales:
• Fast-growing populations
• High levels of international migration
• Younger
Albany
Buffalo
HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
Discounts highest on Black Friday and Cyber Monday
Methodology
Discounts reflect average price changes across product categories from October 1 prices. Discounts are calculated using a Fisher price index on matched products.
Discounts started in October for TVs, toys, and
computers, but peaked for all three during the
Thanksgiving weekend and remained lower than
October 1 prices through the end of the year
• For computers, discounts started in mid-October,
peaked on Black Friday (-15.9% lower than Oct. 1
prices on average) and were still -7.2% by Dec. 31
• In televisions, discounts started in early October,
took off in early November, and peaked on Black
Friday (-21.6%). TV prices were still down -12.2% by
the end of the year
• For toys, discounts started in late October and
peaked on Cyber Monday (down -18.9%) and
remained down -11.2% by the end of the year
HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
Top products – number of days in top ten products
Methodology
The above products are a subset of products in the Adobe Analytics sample and were tracked during the holiday season based on their predicted popularity via analysis of social media. See
Adobe Digital Insights Holiday Predictions 2017 report for more.
Toys
PJ Masks 52
Ride-on cars (all brands) 47
Hatchimals & Colleggtibles 42
L.O.L. Surprise Dolls 36
Funko Pop 14
Baby Alive 12
Fingerling Monkey 10
Electronics
AirPods 26
Amazon Fire TV 16
Chromecast 14
Video Game Consoles
Nintendo Switch 47
Xbox One X 42
Video Games
Pokemon Sun / Moon 6
Super Mario Odyssey 6
• Adobe aggregated and analyzed millions
of product sales to determine top sellers
each day during the holiday season
• In addition to the perennial top-selling
toys and gifts, other toys and gadgets
were persistent top sellers during the
holiday season, including:
• PJ Masks branded toys
• Nintendo Switch gaming console
• Ride-on toy cars (all brands)
• Hatchimals and Colleggtibles toys
• AirPods ear buds
• Streaming devices like Amazon Fire
TV and Chromecast
HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
Growth by market
Methodology
Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce. Demographic trends based on correlation
analysis of Census Bureau data.
HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
Shopping carts get smaller as conversion rates improve
throughout the season
Methodology
Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce
Conversion rates and average order value (AOV) peak
during the Thanksgiving weekend before moving in
opposite directions the rest of the year
• Late season visits to shopping websites are more
valuable despite decreasing order size: the increase
in conversion rates offsets the decrease in AOV
• A visit the week before Christmas is 20% more
valuable than the first week of the holiday shopping
season
• Early season revenue per visit (RPV): $4.10
• Late season RPV: $4.95
HOLIDAY RECAP 2017
Mobile visits hold steady during the holiday season, but
conversion rates improve
Methodology
Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce
Smartphone share of activity held steady across
the season with typical share lift on weekends
• Conversion on Black Friday rivals that on Cyber
Monday
• Smartphone orders average $110, up 2.0% over
2016

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Adobe Digital Insights Holiday Recap Report 2017

  • 1.
  • 2. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 Methodology Adobe Experience Cloud Adobe Analytics Cloud Most comprehensive report of its kind in industry Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data via:  Adobe Analytics measures 80% of online transactions at the largest 100 U.S. web retailers**  Report based on analysis of 1 trillion visits to over 4,500 retail websites and 55 million SKUs  Product and pricing analysis based on 6 million average daily orders during November and December **Source Internet Retailer 2017.
  • 3. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 Key findings 1. Online holiday shopping season in 2017 tops expectations. Online shopping totaled $108.2B during the 2017 holiday season, representing 14.7% growth year-over year ($107.4B, 13.8% growth predicted) 2. The Thanksgiving weekend was one for the record books. Holiday shoppers took full advantage of deep discounts and spent over $19B dollars during the five days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday 3. Cyber Monday and Black Friday stay dominant and emerge as mobile mega-days. Cyber Monday was the first day with over $2.0B in mobile shopping alone 4. Big retailers won big, but small retailers competed on key days. The largest retailers saw big holiday season growth while smaller retailers had an advantage during the Thanksgiving weekend, particularly on mobile devices 5. Big markets drive holiday growth. The nation’s largest markets saw big growth, particularly on key days
  • 4. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 Online holiday shopping tops expectations Methodology Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce Source “U.S. holiday shopping season surging towards a strong finish”. 21 December 2017. Reuters. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-holidayshopping/u-s-holiday- shopping-season-surging-towards-a-strong-finish-idUSKBN1EF2DX Online holiday shopping season (Nov-Dec) revenue in the U.S. exceeds prediction at $108.2B ($107.4B revenue, 13.8% growth predicted) by nearly $1 billion, totaling $108.2B and 14.7% growth year-over-year Holiday season totals show faster growth • The final growth rate in 2017 (14.7%) was slightly above last year’s (14.4%) • Revenue from mobile (smartphone and tablet) was $35.9B (33.1% of online holiday revenue), reflecting a 28% growth rate in revenue year-over-year • Online shopping bested predictions in part because of a strong holiday season in general. Industry and government reports cite strong consumer sentiment, low unemployment, and a strong stock market as driving strong holiday season spending
  • 5. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 Black Friday and Cyber Monday dominate the shopping season Methodology Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce Black Friday and Cyber Monday have steadily increased their importance during the holiday season since 2013 • Black Friday represented 21% more of the shopping season in 2017 (4.6%) than it did in 2013 (3.8%), while Cyber Monday represents 15% more of the shopping season in 2017 (6.1%) than it did in 2013 (5.3%)
  • 6. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 Thanksgiving weekend shoppers set records Methodology Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce Black Friday and Cyber Monday were record days, and the five-day weekend totaled $19.6B (15.2% growth year-over-year) • By the end of the holiday weekend, the season total was $50 billion (since Nov. 1st), reaching that revenue milestone 5 days earlier than in 2016 • Black Friday and Cyber Monday remain dominant but Thanksgiving showed strong growth (18.3%) year-over year • The gap between Black Friday and Cyber Monday didn’t close in 2017 – expect Cyber Monday to remain the major shopping day
  • 7. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 Mobile shines on Thanksgiving weekend Methodology Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce Consumers spent more than ever on their mobile devices during Thanksgiving weekend in 2017. Over $7.0B were spent on tablets or smartphones over the holiday weekend (35.7% of all online revenue during that time) • Cyber Monday featured the first mobile shopping day over $2.0B (30.4% of revenue came from mobile devices) • Thanksgiving was the most mobile-heavy day by share at 41.0% ($1.2B spent on mobile devices), suggesting that people were shopping while traveling or with family • Weekend shoppers were also mobile-focused with 39.5% of revenue on Small Business Saturday and 37.9% on Sunday coming from tablets or smartphones and ($1.0B on mobile each day)
  • 8. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 Record-setting mobile activity during Thanksgiving weekend Methodology Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce 52%/36% Percent of visits and revenue coming from a mobile device. Premium of an iOS visit over Android Online retail sales from mobile devices for five-day weekend. +18% over last year. Cyber Monday: First day with more than $2b in mobile online revenue Improvement in converting smartphone traffic. Improvement in smartphone average order value $7.0B $2.0B +14.2% +1.9% +$0.58
  • 9. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 Black Friday shopping starts early, Cyber Monday finishes late Methodology Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce. Time is local time. On Black Friday, shoppers get an early start – shoppers shift $350M in orders to the morning (over a typical shopping day). On Cyber Monday, shoppers wait until just before deals expire and push $500M than expected into the evening hours. Desktops are big during working hours, while tablets and smartphones peak in the evenings
  • 10. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 Large retailers dominate the season, small retailers win the weekend Methodology Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce Average daily growth rate over the holiday season for medium-to-large retailers is over twice that of smaller retailers per year. 2.3x Average daily growth rate over the five-day weekend for medium-to-large retailers is 30% less than smaller retailers per year. 30% Medium-to-large retailers operate at an advantage through the holiday season, but small retailers enjoy an edge during the Thanksgiving weekend
  • 11. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 Small retailers win on conversion, big retailers on cart size Methodology Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce …while small retailers have an advantage in converting visits to purchases, especially on mobile devices Larger retailers have bigger shopping carts across devices….
  • 12. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 Early-year success predicts Thanksgiving weekend gains Methodology Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce Those retailers that grew more than 10% in the first half of the year saw revenue increases during Thanksgiving weekend 2.1 times over the average retailer. Those retailers that struggled stayed even with last year’s performance.
  • 13. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 E-mail matters, especially during Thanksgiving weekend Methodology Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce Search (natural and paid) led the holiday season for retailers, while e-mail sees the biggest jump during the Thanksgiving weekend • Search drove overall holiday season visits at 44.8% (natural search at 21.3% and paid search at 23.5%) • E-mail was prominent during the holiday season at 20.0% and during the Thanksgiving weekend, e-mail and social were the only two channels to show growth (e-mail grew 3.2% in share during the Thanksgiving weekend)
  • 14. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 Big growth in big markets Methodology Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce. Demographic trends based on correlation analysis of Census Bureau data. More populated markets tend to have more per- household revenue during the holiday weekend. On average, doubling the size of a market increases online sales revenue by 15 to 20%. Other than population size, other factors were also associated with the fastest growing e-commerce sales: • Fast-growing populations • High levels of international migration • Younger Albany Buffalo
  • 15. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 Discounts highest on Black Friday and Cyber Monday Methodology Discounts reflect average price changes across product categories from October 1 prices. Discounts are calculated using a Fisher price index on matched products. Discounts started in October for TVs, toys, and computers, but peaked for all three during the Thanksgiving weekend and remained lower than October 1 prices through the end of the year • For computers, discounts started in mid-October, peaked on Black Friday (-15.9% lower than Oct. 1 prices on average) and were still -7.2% by Dec. 31 • In televisions, discounts started in early October, took off in early November, and peaked on Black Friday (-21.6%). TV prices were still down -12.2% by the end of the year • For toys, discounts started in late October and peaked on Cyber Monday (down -18.9%) and remained down -11.2% by the end of the year
  • 16.
  • 17. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 Top products – number of days in top ten products Methodology The above products are a subset of products in the Adobe Analytics sample and were tracked during the holiday season based on their predicted popularity via analysis of social media. See Adobe Digital Insights Holiday Predictions 2017 report for more. Toys PJ Masks 52 Ride-on cars (all brands) 47 Hatchimals & Colleggtibles 42 L.O.L. Surprise Dolls 36 Funko Pop 14 Baby Alive 12 Fingerling Monkey 10 Electronics AirPods 26 Amazon Fire TV 16 Chromecast 14 Video Game Consoles Nintendo Switch 47 Xbox One X 42 Video Games Pokemon Sun / Moon 6 Super Mario Odyssey 6 • Adobe aggregated and analyzed millions of product sales to determine top sellers each day during the holiday season • In addition to the perennial top-selling toys and gifts, other toys and gadgets were persistent top sellers during the holiday season, including: • PJ Masks branded toys • Nintendo Switch gaming console • Ride-on toy cars (all brands) • Hatchimals and Colleggtibles toys • AirPods ear buds • Streaming devices like Amazon Fire TV and Chromecast
  • 18. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 Growth by market Methodology Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce. Demographic trends based on correlation analysis of Census Bureau data.
  • 19. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 Shopping carts get smaller as conversion rates improve throughout the season Methodology Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce Conversion rates and average order value (AOV) peak during the Thanksgiving weekend before moving in opposite directions the rest of the year • Late season visits to shopping websites are more valuable despite decreasing order size: the increase in conversion rates offsets the decrease in AOV • A visit the week before Christmas is 20% more valuable than the first week of the holiday shopping season • Early season revenue per visit (RPV): $4.10 • Late season RPV: $4.95
  • 20. HOLIDAY RECAP 2017 Mobile visits hold steady during the holiday season, but conversion rates improve Methodology Prediction based on Adobe analysis of aggregate and anonymous online visits and shopping trends from U.S. retailers conducting eCommerce Smartphone share of activity held steady across the season with typical share lift on weekends • Conversion on Black Friday rivals that on Cyber Monday • Smartphone orders average $110, up 2.0% over 2016