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© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
2015 HOLIDAY RECAP
WEBCAST
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
US 2015 HOLIDAY UPDATE
Deborah Weinswig
Executive Director – Head of Global Retail & Technology
Fung Business Intelligence Centre
2	
  
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Agenda
•  Market Insights
Nuggets from the Holiday Season
•  Consumer Insights
Macro Trends and Outlook
3
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Holiday Themes
•  Highly promotional holiday
–  Women’s apparel bounces back, up 10%+;
while Men’s lagged
–  Double digit growth in furniture sales suggest
consumers willing to spend on big ticket items
(MasterCard Advisors)
•  Earlier and later shopping
–  Last year, 1 in 4 shoppers bought a Christmas
gift before Halloween
–  Almost half did the majority of shopping before
Cyber Monday
–  December foot traffic slow until final surge in
2015’s final week
•  Bifurcation of Spending
–  Luxury slows with strong US$ and fewer
tourists spending
Neiman	
  Marcus	
  
Saks	
  
Nordstrom	
  
Bloomingdale’s	
  
Ann	
  Taylor	
  
Costco	
  
Macy’s	
  
Dillard’s	
  
Supervalu	
  
JCPenney	
  
Kohl’s	
  
Kroger	
  
Safeway	
  
Drugstores	
  (CVS/
Walgreens)	
  
BJ’s/Sam’s	
  Club	
  
Target	
  
Kmart/Sears	
  
Walmart	
  
Primark	
  
Dollar	
  Stores	
  	
  
Aldi/Lidl	
  
	
  
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Mixed Holiday Results Despite Healthy Consumers
Source:	
  NRF,	
  FBIC	
  Es2mate	
  
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Early Holiday Data
•  Holiday spending between Black Friday and Christmas Eve up 7.9%
according to MasterCard Advisors Spending Pulse
•  Holiday online sales rose 20% year-over-year
•  Free shipping is the “new normal” – Demandware reports 88% of US
online retail purchases qualified to free shipping on Cyber Monday
•  Amazon reported a massive 2015 holiday season, adding 3 million
new Amazon Prime subscribers and shipping more than 200 million
items for free to Prime subscribers . Almost 70% of Amazon
customers shopped on a mobile device during the holiday period
•  During the first 36 days of the November-December 2015 holiday
season, ComScore reported U.S. retail e-commerce spending from
desktop computers to have reached $35.4 billion, marking a 6%
increase versus the corresponding days last year
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Mixed Holiday Results ---Final Tally Still to Come
•  US retail sales +2.9% week ended January 2 and
+2.2% for December, says Johnson Redbook
•  RetailNext reports December US traffic drops (-5.8%), off (-6.4%) in
November/December holiday shopping period
–  December sales were off (-0.4%), an improving trend as average
transaction value rose 3.6%.
–  Regionally, Northeast and West sales up 2.7% and 3.0%; offset by
(-1.8%) drop in the South and (-2.3%) in the Midwest
•  Mixed comps Costco, JC Penney and L Brands report positive comps
and Buckle and Macy’s report comp declines
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
December Comps
•  (-4.7%) combined November-December comp at Macy’s though digital
sales rose ~25%
“About 80% of our year-over-year declines in comparable sales can be attributed
to shortfalls in cold-weather goods such as coats, sweaters, boots, hats, gloves
and scarves.” CEO Terry Lundgren
•  JC Penney November-December + 3.9% lapping +3.7% last year
“Despite unprecedented warm weather that significantly affected apparel sales,
our focus of private brands, omnichannel execution and a compelling gift giving
selection resulted in strong holiday sales.” CEO Marvin Ellison
•  L Brands December comp + 8%%
“Best December ever.” CEO Les Wexner
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Consumer & Retailer Behavior – Holiday 2015
•  Shoppers began their holiday shopping early this year – nearly half
started shopping before the Black Friday weekend
•  Online has become a major channel for holiday shopping, with 6 in
10 of those surveyed saying they will shop mainly online
•  4 in 10 shoppers surveyed planned to spend more than $500 and
33% of young shoppers planned will increase their spending
compared with last year
Source: FBIC Global & Retail Tech Survey, Based on 1, 044 valid responses by US residents from December 19-22, 2015.
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Home and Apparel Top Preforming E-commerce Categories this
Holiday
Absolute
Dollar Rank Product Category
Season To Date*Y/Y
Growth Rate
8
7
1
4
9
14
3
18
Home & Garden
Furniture, Appliances, & Equipment
Apparel & Accessories
Consumer Packaged Goods
Event & Movie Tickets
Sports & Fitness
Consumer Electronics
Video Games
Very Strong
Strong
Strong
Strong
Strong
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Source:	
  comScore	
  e-­‐Commerce	
  Measurement	
  	
  
*	
  Based	
  on	
  corresponding	
  shopping	
  days	
  in	
  2014	
  
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Macro Backdrop Favorable
1.  Lower gas prices continue to provide a silver lining for US consumers
2.  Residential Heating Oil Price decreases, down 29% from year ago
3.  November retail sales growth rose modestly from October’s pace
4.  According to estimates by Bloomberg the US unemployment rate is expected to hold
at November’s 7-year low of 5%, down from 5.6% in December 2014
5.  Total housing starts above 1 million units, longest stretch since 2007
6.  Real personal disposable income increased by 3.5% and wages rose 4.5% in
November YoY
7.  Savings rate drops modestly in November
8.  Consumer confidence rebounded to 91.3 in November
9.  Inflation/Deflation
a)  Apparel prices remain deflationary
b)  Food prices fell into deflationary range in November
10.  Small Business optimism dropped due to uncertainty about interest rates
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Macro Backdrop Cheatsheet
	
  
Indicator	
   	
  Period	
   2015	
   2014	
   YoY	
  change	
  	
  
Gas	
  Price	
  ($	
  per	
  gallon)	
  
Avg	
  	
  
(Nov./Dec.)	
  
$2.1	
  	
   $2.7	
  	
   -­‐22%	
  
Per	
  Capita	
  Disposable	
  Personal	
  Income	
   Nov.	
   $42,274	
  	
   $40,996	
  	
   3.1%	
  
Savings	
  rate	
   Nov.	
   5.5%	
   4.6%	
   90	
  bps	
  
The	
  S&P/Case-­‐Shiller	
  20-­‐City	
  Composite	
  Home	
  
Price	
  Index	
   Oct.	
   182.8	
   173.2	
   5.6%	
  
Unemployment	
  rate*	
   Q4	
   5.0%	
   5.7%	
   (70)	
  bps	
  
University	
  of	
  Michigan	
  Consumer	
  SenMment	
  
Avg	
  	
  
(Nov./Dec.)	
  
92.0	
   91.2	
   0.8%	
  
Source:	
  Haver	
  Analy2cs	
  
*Bloomberg	
  Es2mate	
  	
  
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
1) At The Pump Gas Prices Hit 11-month Low
•  Gas prices were $2.03 per gallon on January 4, 2016, down 8.4% from
a year ago
•  Consumers are saving an average of $18 per tank compared to two
years ago, freeing funds for gifts, entertaining and travel
Sources:	
  Energy	
  Informa2on	
  Agency,	
  Interna2onal	
  Monetary	
  Fund	
  and	
  Rhodium	
  Group	
  
$2.00	
  
$2.50	
  
$3.00	
  
$3.50	
  
$4.00	
  
Nov-­‐1
Nov-­‐1
Dec-­‐1
Dec-­‐1
Dec-­‐1
Jan-­‐15	
  
Jan-­‐15	
  
Feb-­‐15	
  
Feb-­‐15	
  
Mar-­‐1
Mar-­‐1
Apr-­‐15	
  
Apr-­‐15	
  
May-­‐1
May-­‐1
Jun-­‐15	
  
Jun-­‐15	
  
Jun-­‐15	
  
Jul-­‐15	
  
Jul-­‐15	
  
Aug-­‐1
Aug-­‐1
Sep-­‐15	
  
Sep-­‐15	
  
Oct-­‐15	
  
Oct-­‐15	
  
Nov-­‐1
Nov-­‐1
Nov-­‐1
Retail	
  Gasoline	
  Price	
  ($/Gallon)	
  
	
   This	
  Year	
   Last	
  Year	
  
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
2) Residential Heating Oil & Propane
•  US Residential Heating Oil Price averaged $2.24 per gallon in December,
29% lower than one year ago
•  US Residential Propane Prices averaged $1.98 per gallon in December,
17% lower than one year ago
Sources:	
  Energy	
  Informa2on	
  Agency,	
  Interna2onal	
  Monetary	
  Fund	
  and	
  Rhodium	
  Group	
  
$2.36	
  
$1.96	
  
$1.00	
  
$1.50	
  
$2.00	
  
$2.50	
  
$3.00	
  
$3.50	
  
Nov-­‐14	
  
Dec-­‐14	
  
Dec-­‐14	
  
Jan-­‐15	
  
Jan-­‐15	
  
Feb-­‐15	
  
Feb-­‐15	
  
Mar-­‐15	
  
Mar-­‐15	
  
Mar-­‐15	
  
Apr-­‐15	
  
Apr-­‐15	
  
May-­‐15	
  
May-­‐15	
  
Jun-­‐15	
  
Jun-­‐15	
  
Jul-­‐15	
  
Jul-­‐15	
  
Aug-­‐15	
  
Aug-­‐15	
  
Aug-­‐15	
  
Sep-­‐15	
  
Sep-­‐15	
  
Oct-­‐15	
  
Oct-­‐15	
  
Nov-­‐15	
  
Nov-­‐15	
  
Dec-­‐15	
  
Dec-­‐15	
  
US	
  Residen`al	
  Hea`ng	
  Oil	
  &	
  Propane	
  Price	
  ($/Gallon)	
  
ResidenMal	
  HeaMng	
  Oil	
   ResidenMal	
  Propane	
  	
  
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
3) November Retail Sales rose 0.7% year-over-year;
versus a 3.8% year-over-year pace in November 2014.
Through	
  November	
  30,	
  2015,	
  Seasonally	
  adjusted	
  annual	
  rate	
  
Source:	
  US	
  Census	
  Bureau/Haver	
  Analy2cs	
  
(10)	
  
(5)	
  
0	
  	
  
5	
  	
  
10	
  	
  
15	
  	
  
03	
   04	
   05	
   06	
   07	
   08	
   09	
   10	
   11	
   12	
   13	
   14	
   15	
  
Total	
  Retail	
  Sales	
  Ex	
  Autos	
  
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
4) Bloomberg Estimates Another Strong Job
Report for Q4 2015
•  Bloomberg estimates Q4 holding steady with October and
November rates of 5.0%
•  Compares with 5.6% for 2014 YE
4	
  
6	
  
8	
  
10	
  
12	
  
04	
   05	
   06	
   07	
   08	
   09	
   10	
   11	
   12	
   13	
   14	
   15	
  
US	
  Unemployment	
  Rate	
  %	
  	
  
Source:	
  Bureau	
  of	
  Labor	
  Sta2s2cs	
  
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
5) Total Housing Starts Above 1 Million Units,
Longest Stretch Since 2007
•  Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
1,173,000. This is 10.5% above the revised October estimate and 16.5% above November
2014.
•  Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 768,000; this is 7.6% above the
October figure of 714,000.
Through	
  November	
  30,	
  2015,	
  Seasonally	
  adjusted	
  annual	
  rate	
  
Source:	
  US	
  Census	
  Bureau	
  Released	
  on	
  December	
  16,	
  2015	
  
	
  
Through	
  November	
  30,	
  2015,	
  Seasonally	
  adjusted	
  annual	
  rate	
  
Source:	
  US	
  Census	
  Bureau	
  Released	
  on	
  December	
  16,	
  2015	
  
	
  
(60)	
  
(40)	
  
(20)	
  
0	
  	
  
20	
  	
  
40	
  	
  
60	
  	
  
(100)	
  
(50)	
  
0	
  	
  
50	
  	
  
100	
  	
  
150	
  	
  
200	
  	
  
04	
   05	
   06	
   07	
   08	
   09	
   10	
   11	
   12	
   13	
   14	
   15	
  
Monthly	
  Housing	
  Starts	
  YoY%	
  
MulMfamily-­‐Le]	
  Axis	
  	
   Single	
  Family-­‐Right	
  Axis	
  	
  
21.3	
  
14.6	
  
(10)	
  
0	
  	
  
10	
  	
  
20	
  	
  
30	
  	
  
(20)	
  
(10)	
  
0	
  
10	
  
20	
  
30	
  
40	
  
50	
  
60	
  
70	
  
Monthly	
  Housing	
  Starts	
  YoY%,	
  last	
  12	
  months	
  
MulMfamily-­‐Le]	
  Axis	
  	
   Single	
  Family-­‐Right	
  Axis	
  	
  
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
6) Real Personal Disposable Income and Wages
Continued to Improve
•  Real disposable income increased by 3.5% in November YoY, down
from October’s revised 3.8%
•  Wages & salaries rose 4.5% in November YoY, slightly lower than
October’s 4.9%
Through	
  November	
  30,	
  2015	
  
Source:	
  Bureau	
  of	
  Economic	
  Analysis	
  
Released	
  on	
  December	
  23,	
  2015	
  	
  
(8)	
  
(6)	
  
(4)	
  
(2)	
  
0	
  	
  
2	
  	
  
4	
  	
  
6	
  	
  
8	
  	
  
10	
  	
  
04	
   05	
   06	
   07	
   08	
   09	
   10	
   11	
   12	
   13	
   14	
   15	
  
Real	
  Disposable	
  Income	
  &	
  	
  Wages	
  and	
  Salaries	
  YoY	
  %	
  	
  
Wages	
  &	
  Salaries	
   	
  Disposable	
  Personal	
  Income	
  
3.5	
  
4.5	
  
0	
  	
  
1	
  	
  
2	
  	
  
3	
  	
  
4	
  	
  
5	
  	
  
6	
  	
  
Real	
  Disposable	
  Income	
  &	
  Wages	
  and	
  Salaries	
  YoY	
  %	
  	
  
Wages	
  &	
  Salaries	
   	
  Disposable	
  Personal	
  Income	
  
Through	
  November	
  30,	
  2015	
  
Source:	
  Bureau	
  of	
  Economic	
  Analysis	
  
Released	
  on	
  December	
  23,	
  2015	
  	
  
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
7) November’s Personal Saving Rate drops
modestly to 5.5%
Sources:	
  Bureau	
  of	
  Economic	
  Analysis	
  	
  
Seasonally	
  Adjusted	
  Annual	
  Rate	
  
	
  4.0	
  	
  
	
  4.5	
  	
  
	
  5.0	
  	
  
	
  5.5	
  	
  
	
  6.0	
  	
  
Oct-­‐2013	
   Feb-­‐2014	
   Jun-­‐2014	
   Oct-­‐2014	
   Feb-­‐2015	
   Jun-­‐2015	
   Oct-­‐2015	
  
Personal	
  Savings	
  Rate	
  (%)	
  
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
8) Consumer Confidence and Sentiment Increases
92.6	
  
96.5	
  
40	
  	
  
60	
  	
  
80	
  	
  
100	
  	
  
120	
  	
  
Dec-­‐10	
   Dec-­‐11	
   Dec-­‐12	
   Dec-­‐13	
   Dec-­‐14	
   Dec-­‐15	
  
University	
  of	
  Michigan	
  	
   The	
  Conference	
  Board	
  
20	
  
Through	
  December	
  	
  2015	
  
Source:	
  The	
  Conference	
  Board/University	
  of	
  Michigan	
  	
  	
  
•  The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment reached 92.6 in December
2015, up from 91.3 in November
•  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index also improved in December,
reaching 96.5, up from 92.6 in November
•  Higher readings could be a positive heading into 2016
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
9a) Inflation/Deflation (Apparel Prices)
•  Apparel CPI off 1.5% YOY in November reflecting continued US
apparel price deflation
-­‐1.50	
  
-­‐1.00	
  
-­‐0.50	
  
0.00	
  
0.50	
  
1.00	
  
1.50	
  
2.00	
  
All	
  Urban	
  Consumer	
  (CPI-­‐U)	
  Apparels	
  
Through	
  November	
  2015	
  
Source:	
  Federal	
  Reserve	
  Economic	
  Research	
  	
  
Seasonally	
  Adjusted	
  
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
9b) Inflation/Deflation (Food Prices)
•  Food prices fell into deflationary range in November, though still 1.3%
higher than November 2014
-­‐0.40	
  
-­‐0.20	
  
0.00	
  
0.20	
  
0.40	
  
0.60	
  
0.80	
  
1.00	
  
1.20	
  
All	
  Urban	
  Consumer	
  (CPI-­‐U)	
  Food	
  	
  
Through	
  November	
  2015	
  
Source:	
  Federal	
  Reserve	
  Economic	
  Research	
  	
  
Seasonally	
  Adjusted	
  
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
10) Small Business Optimism Dropped In November
•  NFIB Small business optimism index dropped 1.3 points to 94.8, pointing to
continued uncertainty from the Federal Reserve on interest rates
Source:	
  Advisor	
  
Perspec2ves	
  
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Upcoming Events
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January 16, NYC
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2015 Holiday Update Webcast with Planalytics

  • 1. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 2015 HOLIDAY RECAP WEBCAST
  • 2. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. US 2015 HOLIDAY UPDATE Deborah Weinswig Executive Director – Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre 2  
  • 3. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Agenda •  Market Insights Nuggets from the Holiday Season •  Consumer Insights Macro Trends and Outlook 3
  • 4. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Holiday Themes •  Highly promotional holiday –  Women’s apparel bounces back, up 10%+; while Men’s lagged –  Double digit growth in furniture sales suggest consumers willing to spend on big ticket items (MasterCard Advisors) •  Earlier and later shopping –  Last year, 1 in 4 shoppers bought a Christmas gift before Halloween –  Almost half did the majority of shopping before Cyber Monday –  December foot traffic slow until final surge in 2015’s final week •  Bifurcation of Spending –  Luxury slows with strong US$ and fewer tourists spending Neiman  Marcus   Saks   Nordstrom   Bloomingdale’s   Ann  Taylor   Costco   Macy’s   Dillard’s   Supervalu   JCPenney   Kohl’s   Kroger   Safeway   Drugstores  (CVS/ Walgreens)   BJ’s/Sam’s  Club   Target   Kmart/Sears   Walmart   Primark   Dollar  Stores     Aldi/Lidl    
  • 5. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Mixed Holiday Results Despite Healthy Consumers Source:  NRF,  FBIC  Es2mate  
  • 6. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Early Holiday Data •  Holiday spending between Black Friday and Christmas Eve up 7.9% according to MasterCard Advisors Spending Pulse •  Holiday online sales rose 20% year-over-year •  Free shipping is the “new normal” – Demandware reports 88% of US online retail purchases qualified to free shipping on Cyber Monday •  Amazon reported a massive 2015 holiday season, adding 3 million new Amazon Prime subscribers and shipping more than 200 million items for free to Prime subscribers . Almost 70% of Amazon customers shopped on a mobile device during the holiday period •  During the first 36 days of the November-December 2015 holiday season, ComScore reported U.S. retail e-commerce spending from desktop computers to have reached $35.4 billion, marking a 6% increase versus the corresponding days last year
  • 7. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Mixed Holiday Results ---Final Tally Still to Come •  US retail sales +2.9% week ended January 2 and +2.2% for December, says Johnson Redbook •  RetailNext reports December US traffic drops (-5.8%), off (-6.4%) in November/December holiday shopping period –  December sales were off (-0.4%), an improving trend as average transaction value rose 3.6%. –  Regionally, Northeast and West sales up 2.7% and 3.0%; offset by (-1.8%) drop in the South and (-2.3%) in the Midwest •  Mixed comps Costco, JC Penney and L Brands report positive comps and Buckle and Macy’s report comp declines
  • 8. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. December Comps •  (-4.7%) combined November-December comp at Macy’s though digital sales rose ~25% “About 80% of our year-over-year declines in comparable sales can be attributed to shortfalls in cold-weather goods such as coats, sweaters, boots, hats, gloves and scarves.” CEO Terry Lundgren •  JC Penney November-December + 3.9% lapping +3.7% last year “Despite unprecedented warm weather that significantly affected apparel sales, our focus of private brands, omnichannel execution and a compelling gift giving selection resulted in strong holiday sales.” CEO Marvin Ellison •  L Brands December comp + 8%% “Best December ever.” CEO Les Wexner
  • 9. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Consumer & Retailer Behavior – Holiday 2015 •  Shoppers began their holiday shopping early this year – nearly half started shopping before the Black Friday weekend •  Online has become a major channel for holiday shopping, with 6 in 10 of those surveyed saying they will shop mainly online •  4 in 10 shoppers surveyed planned to spend more than $500 and 33% of young shoppers planned will increase their spending compared with last year Source: FBIC Global & Retail Tech Survey, Based on 1, 044 valid responses by US residents from December 19-22, 2015.
  • 10. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Home and Apparel Top Preforming E-commerce Categories this Holiday Absolute Dollar Rank Product Category Season To Date*Y/Y Growth Rate 8 7 1 4 9 14 3 18 Home & Garden Furniture, Appliances, & Equipment Apparel & Accessories Consumer Packaged Goods Event & Movie Tickets Sports & Fitness Consumer Electronics Video Games Very Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Moderate Moderate Moderate Source:  comScore  e-­‐Commerce  Measurement     *  Based  on  corresponding  shopping  days  in  2014  
  • 11. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Macro Backdrop Favorable 1.  Lower gas prices continue to provide a silver lining for US consumers 2.  Residential Heating Oil Price decreases, down 29% from year ago 3.  November retail sales growth rose modestly from October’s pace 4.  According to estimates by Bloomberg the US unemployment rate is expected to hold at November’s 7-year low of 5%, down from 5.6% in December 2014 5.  Total housing starts above 1 million units, longest stretch since 2007 6.  Real personal disposable income increased by 3.5% and wages rose 4.5% in November YoY 7.  Savings rate drops modestly in November 8.  Consumer confidence rebounded to 91.3 in November 9.  Inflation/Deflation a)  Apparel prices remain deflationary b)  Food prices fell into deflationary range in November 10.  Small Business optimism dropped due to uncertainty about interest rates
  • 12. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Macro Backdrop Cheatsheet   Indicator    Period   2015   2014   YoY  change     Gas  Price  ($  per  gallon)   Avg     (Nov./Dec.)   $2.1     $2.7     -­‐22%   Per  Capita  Disposable  Personal  Income   Nov.   $42,274     $40,996     3.1%   Savings  rate   Nov.   5.5%   4.6%   90  bps   The  S&P/Case-­‐Shiller  20-­‐City  Composite  Home   Price  Index   Oct.   182.8   173.2   5.6%   Unemployment  rate*   Q4   5.0%   5.7%   (70)  bps   University  of  Michigan  Consumer  SenMment   Avg     (Nov./Dec.)   92.0   91.2   0.8%   Source:  Haver  Analy2cs   *Bloomberg  Es2mate    
  • 13. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 1) At The Pump Gas Prices Hit 11-month Low •  Gas prices were $2.03 per gallon on January 4, 2016, down 8.4% from a year ago •  Consumers are saving an average of $18 per tank compared to two years ago, freeing funds for gifts, entertaining and travel Sources:  Energy  Informa2on  Agency,  Interna2onal  Monetary  Fund  and  Rhodium  Group   $2.00   $2.50   $3.00   $3.50   $4.00   Nov-­‐1 Nov-­‐1 Dec-­‐1 Dec-­‐1 Dec-­‐1 Jan-­‐15   Jan-­‐15   Feb-­‐15   Feb-­‐15   Mar-­‐1 Mar-­‐1 Apr-­‐15   Apr-­‐15   May-­‐1 May-­‐1 Jun-­‐15   Jun-­‐15   Jun-­‐15   Jul-­‐15   Jul-­‐15   Aug-­‐1 Aug-­‐1 Sep-­‐15   Sep-­‐15   Oct-­‐15   Oct-­‐15   Nov-­‐1 Nov-­‐1 Nov-­‐1 Retail  Gasoline  Price  ($/Gallon)     This  Year   Last  Year  
  • 14. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 2) Residential Heating Oil & Propane •  US Residential Heating Oil Price averaged $2.24 per gallon in December, 29% lower than one year ago •  US Residential Propane Prices averaged $1.98 per gallon in December, 17% lower than one year ago Sources:  Energy  Informa2on  Agency,  Interna2onal  Monetary  Fund  and  Rhodium  Group   $2.36   $1.96   $1.00   $1.50   $2.00   $2.50   $3.00   $3.50   Nov-­‐14   Dec-­‐14   Dec-­‐14   Jan-­‐15   Jan-­‐15   Feb-­‐15   Feb-­‐15   Mar-­‐15   Mar-­‐15   Mar-­‐15   Apr-­‐15   Apr-­‐15   May-­‐15   May-­‐15   Jun-­‐15   Jun-­‐15   Jul-­‐15   Jul-­‐15   Aug-­‐15   Aug-­‐15   Aug-­‐15   Sep-­‐15   Sep-­‐15   Oct-­‐15   Oct-­‐15   Nov-­‐15   Nov-­‐15   Dec-­‐15   Dec-­‐15   US  Residen`al  Hea`ng  Oil  &  Propane  Price  ($/Gallon)   ResidenMal  HeaMng  Oil   ResidenMal  Propane    
  • 15. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 3) November Retail Sales rose 0.7% year-over-year; versus a 3.8% year-over-year pace in November 2014. Through  November  30,  2015,  Seasonally  adjusted  annual  rate   Source:  US  Census  Bureau/Haver  Analy2cs   (10)   (5)   0     5     10     15     03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   Total  Retail  Sales  Ex  Autos  
  • 16. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 4) Bloomberg Estimates Another Strong Job Report for Q4 2015 •  Bloomberg estimates Q4 holding steady with October and November rates of 5.0% •  Compares with 5.6% for 2014 YE 4   6   8   10   12   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   US  Unemployment  Rate  %     Source:  Bureau  of  Labor  Sta2s2cs  
  • 17. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 5) Total Housing Starts Above 1 Million Units, Longest Stretch Since 2007 •  Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,173,000. This is 10.5% above the revised October estimate and 16.5% above November 2014. •  Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 768,000; this is 7.6% above the October figure of 714,000. Through  November  30,  2015,  Seasonally  adjusted  annual  rate   Source:  US  Census  Bureau  Released  on  December  16,  2015     Through  November  30,  2015,  Seasonally  adjusted  annual  rate   Source:  US  Census  Bureau  Released  on  December  16,  2015     (60)   (40)   (20)   0     20     40     60     (100)   (50)   0     50     100     150     200     04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   Monthly  Housing  Starts  YoY%   MulMfamily-­‐Le]  Axis     Single  Family-­‐Right  Axis     21.3   14.6   (10)   0     10     20     30     (20)   (10)   0   10   20   30   40   50   60   70   Monthly  Housing  Starts  YoY%,  last  12  months   MulMfamily-­‐Le]  Axis     Single  Family-­‐Right  Axis    
  • 18. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 6) Real Personal Disposable Income and Wages Continued to Improve •  Real disposable income increased by 3.5% in November YoY, down from October’s revised 3.8% •  Wages & salaries rose 4.5% in November YoY, slightly lower than October’s 4.9% Through  November  30,  2015   Source:  Bureau  of  Economic  Analysis   Released  on  December  23,  2015     (8)   (6)   (4)   (2)   0     2     4     6     8     10     04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   Real  Disposable  Income  &    Wages  and  Salaries  YoY  %     Wages  &  Salaries    Disposable  Personal  Income   3.5   4.5   0     1     2     3     4     5     6     Real  Disposable  Income  &  Wages  and  Salaries  YoY  %     Wages  &  Salaries    Disposable  Personal  Income   Through  November  30,  2015   Source:  Bureau  of  Economic  Analysis   Released  on  December  23,  2015    
  • 19. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 7) November’s Personal Saving Rate drops modestly to 5.5% Sources:  Bureau  of  Economic  Analysis     Seasonally  Adjusted  Annual  Rate    4.0      4.5      5.0      5.5      6.0     Oct-­‐2013   Feb-­‐2014   Jun-­‐2014   Oct-­‐2014   Feb-­‐2015   Jun-­‐2015   Oct-­‐2015   Personal  Savings  Rate  (%)  
  • 20. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 8) Consumer Confidence and Sentiment Increases 92.6   96.5   40     60     80     100     120     Dec-­‐10   Dec-­‐11   Dec-­‐12   Dec-­‐13   Dec-­‐14   Dec-­‐15   University  of  Michigan     The  Conference  Board   20   Through  December    2015   Source:  The  Conference  Board/University  of  Michigan       •  The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment reached 92.6 in December 2015, up from 91.3 in November •  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index also improved in December, reaching 96.5, up from 92.6 in November •  Higher readings could be a positive heading into 2016
  • 21. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 9a) Inflation/Deflation (Apparel Prices) •  Apparel CPI off 1.5% YOY in November reflecting continued US apparel price deflation -­‐1.50   -­‐1.00   -­‐0.50   0.00   0.50   1.00   1.50   2.00   All  Urban  Consumer  (CPI-­‐U)  Apparels   Through  November  2015   Source:  Federal  Reserve  Economic  Research     Seasonally  Adjusted  
  • 22. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 9b) Inflation/Deflation (Food Prices) •  Food prices fell into deflationary range in November, though still 1.3% higher than November 2014 -­‐0.40   -­‐0.20   0.00   0.20   0.40   0.60   0.80   1.00   1.20   All  Urban  Consumer  (CPI-­‐U)  Food     Through  November  2015   Source:  Federal  Reserve  Economic  Research     Seasonally  Adjusted  
  • 23. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. 10) Small Business Optimism Dropped In November •  NFIB Small business optimism index dropped 1.3 points to 94.8, pointing to continued uncertainty from the Federal Reserve on interest rates Source:  Advisor   Perspec2ves  
  • 24. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Upcoming Events RISE-Retail Innovation &Shopper Expertise Symposium January 16, NYC NRF Big Idea Presentation January 17, NYC MAGIC-Tell Your Fashion Story February 16-18, Las Vegas