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© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
2016 Holiday Shopping Predictions
Adobe Digital Insights
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Methodology
2
Adobe
Analytics
Adobe
Mobile Services
Adobe
Social
Most comprehensive and accurate report of its kind in industry
 Adobe measures 80% of all online transactions from top 100 U.S. retailers **
 $7.50 of every $10 spent online with top 500 U.S. retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud **
 Report based on analysis of 1 trillion visits to over 4,500 retail websites and 55 million SKUs
 Predictions in past years within 2 percentage points
 Companion research based on survey with 1,000+ U.S. consumers
 75M Social Mentions From Sept 2015 - Dec 2015 & Aug 2016 - Oct 2016
Data from different Adobe Marketing Cloud solutions:
Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data
** Latest IR Top 500 Report 2016
Adobe Marketing Cloud has seen strong adoption in the retail
space – Adobe’s leadership in the Web analytics market has given
it a big advantage here. Retailers need “big data” insights to
optimize their cross-channel digital experiences and campaigns –
and deliver the personalized, relevant experiences that inspire
customer loyalty and advocacy. – Melissa Webster, IDCAdobe and the Adobe logo are either registered trademarks or trademarks of Adobe Systems Incorporated in the United States and/or other countries. All other
trademarks are the property of their respective owners
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Top Predictions
3
Black Friday Will Be Biggest Ever, Hitting $3 Billion For First Time
57 Total One Billion Dollar Shopping Days, And 53 Straight One Billion Dollar Days – Up 71% YoY
Lack of Price Shopping Could Cost You 20% During the Holidays
5% of Customers Drive 35% of Revenue
The Holiday Season Starts Earlier, and Consumers Can Find Good Discounts Before Black Friday Weekend
Mobile Set to Overtake Desktop Visits, Yet Purchasing Remains Behind
1
2
3
4
5
6
25% of top products are sold during Black Friday Weekend
7
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Black Friday Sets Record Sales, Cyber Monday Biggest Day Ever
4
Holiday season set to grow 11% YoY, reaching $91.6 billion overall ($9.1 billion more than 2015)
From Nov 1 through Dec 31
 Cyber Monday to hit $3.36 Billion
9.4% YoY Growth
 Record sales on Black Friday
$3.05 Billion Ι 11.3% YoY Growth
 Thanksgiving Day to grow fastest
$2.00 Billion Ι 15.6% YoY Growth
$8.4 billion in just three days:
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Holiday Will See Unprecedented Amount of Billion Dollar Days
5
57 total and 53 consecutive days will bring in $1B+ in revenue during the 2016 holiday season
 Average growth for first two weeks of Nov: 5%
 Average growth for last two weeks of Dec: 24%
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Consumers Continue to Increase Their Online Purchasing
6
Convenience factors for purchasing online grew YoY for consumers
 Lower prices, good deals, and free shipping remain at the top of reasons for shopping online
States with highest e-commerce rate see correlation with more graduate degrees, student and total debt, and higher rent
as share of income
 Washington D.C. highest growth, Mississippi lowest
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Holiday Shopping Season Starts Earlier
7
31% of US consumers say they will start shopping before November 1 (+5% YoY)
 27% say they will start before Thanksgiving (ADI Holiday Survey 2016)
 Nearly 12% of all Christmas decorations will be bought before Halloween, up 20% from since last year
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
DPI Indicates Holidays See Steep Price Discounts
8
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
A Consumer Guide to Holiday Happiness
9
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
A Consumer Guide to Holiday Happiness
10
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Lack of Price Shopping Could Cost Customers 20% During the Holidays
11
The average price difference for the same product fluctuates 20% between retailers during the holiday season
 Price comparing toys could save you the most (24%), while electronics will save you the least (17%)
 Consumers typically check an average of four to five websites before making a purchase (ADI Holiday Survey 2016)
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
25% of Consumers Will Pay Higher Prices During Holiday
12
 Despite the increased ability to find a
discount, 25% of customers will pay a higher
price during the holidays
 Consumers appear to be willing to pay a
premium, perhaps for quality assurance or
brand loyalty
 Loyalty pays off for the retailer too: 5% of
customers drive 35% of revenue
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Mobile Shopping to Exceed Desktop in Holiday 2016
13
Shoppers rely more on mobile:
 Mobile will exceed desktop visits for first
time this holiday (53%), yet only drive 34%
of purchases
 60% of consumers expect to rely on mobile
browsing (vs. app) this year vs. last year (ADI
Holiday Survey 2016)
Cyber Monday mobile visits grow fastest
 Thanksgiving:
 59% mobile visits, 41% mobile commerce
 Black Friday:
 57% mobile visits, 37% mobile commerce
 Cyber Monday:
 49% mobile visits, 32% mobile commerce
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Purchases on Mobile Devices Remain Behind
14
Mobile shoppers struggle to go beyond the shopping cart and convert when compared to desktop
 Desktop conversion rate is 2.7x higher than smartphone
 While 30% of carts result in an order on desktop, only 19% of carts result in an order on smartphones
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Display Gives Highest Chance of Finding Discounted Product
15
Consumers indicate the best source of online
shopping deals during the holiday is email from
a retailer, followed by ads
 Consumers rank social media sites and push
notifications from apps the lowest (Source: ADI
Holiday Survey 2016)
Display has the highest odds of leading to a
discounted product (29%)
 Social and email rank second
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Most Buzzed About Gifts for Holiday 2016
16
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 17
Hot Products You Might Miss Based on Buzz
25% of annual top products sales happen between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday (in units)
 Some products may sell out faster than others: ‘Buy Earlier in November ’ indicates products customers shouldn’t wait to
purchase, ‘Buy Later’ are a safer bet
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | 2016 Holiday Shopping Prediction
Appendix: Holiday Predictions 2016 (US)
Adobe Digital Insights
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 19
Email Rated #1 to Get Offer to Consumer’s Mobile Device While Shopping
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 20
Overall Holiday Budgets Increased by 17%; Budget Breakdown
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 21
1% of Products Drive 74% of Online Sales During the Holidays
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 22
Black Friday and Cyber Monday Social Buzz Doesn’t Hit Until November
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 23
Average Price Difference by Category
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Digital Price Index by Category
24
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Digital Price Index by Category
25
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Digital Price Index by Category
26
© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.

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ADI: 2016 Holiday Shopping Predictions

  • 1. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 2016 Holiday Shopping Predictions Adobe Digital Insights
  • 2. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Methodology 2 Adobe Analytics Adobe Mobile Services Adobe Social Most comprehensive and accurate report of its kind in industry  Adobe measures 80% of all online transactions from top 100 U.S. retailers **  $7.50 of every $10 spent online with top 500 U.S. retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud **  Report based on analysis of 1 trillion visits to over 4,500 retail websites and 55 million SKUs  Predictions in past years within 2 percentage points  Companion research based on survey with 1,000+ U.S. consumers  75M Social Mentions From Sept 2015 - Dec 2015 & Aug 2016 - Oct 2016 Data from different Adobe Marketing Cloud solutions: Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data ** Latest IR Top 500 Report 2016 Adobe Marketing Cloud has seen strong adoption in the retail space – Adobe’s leadership in the Web analytics market has given it a big advantage here. Retailers need “big data” insights to optimize their cross-channel digital experiences and campaigns – and deliver the personalized, relevant experiences that inspire customer loyalty and advocacy. – Melissa Webster, IDCAdobe and the Adobe logo are either registered trademarks or trademarks of Adobe Systems Incorporated in the United States and/or other countries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners
  • 3. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Top Predictions 3 Black Friday Will Be Biggest Ever, Hitting $3 Billion For First Time 57 Total One Billion Dollar Shopping Days, And 53 Straight One Billion Dollar Days – Up 71% YoY Lack of Price Shopping Could Cost You 20% During the Holidays 5% of Customers Drive 35% of Revenue The Holiday Season Starts Earlier, and Consumers Can Find Good Discounts Before Black Friday Weekend Mobile Set to Overtake Desktop Visits, Yet Purchasing Remains Behind 1 2 3 4 5 6 25% of top products are sold during Black Friday Weekend 7
  • 4. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Black Friday Sets Record Sales, Cyber Monday Biggest Day Ever 4 Holiday season set to grow 11% YoY, reaching $91.6 billion overall ($9.1 billion more than 2015) From Nov 1 through Dec 31  Cyber Monday to hit $3.36 Billion 9.4% YoY Growth  Record sales on Black Friday $3.05 Billion Ι 11.3% YoY Growth  Thanksgiving Day to grow fastest $2.00 Billion Ι 15.6% YoY Growth $8.4 billion in just three days:
  • 5. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Holiday Will See Unprecedented Amount of Billion Dollar Days 5 57 total and 53 consecutive days will bring in $1B+ in revenue during the 2016 holiday season  Average growth for first two weeks of Nov: 5%  Average growth for last two weeks of Dec: 24%
  • 6. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Consumers Continue to Increase Their Online Purchasing 6 Convenience factors for purchasing online grew YoY for consumers  Lower prices, good deals, and free shipping remain at the top of reasons for shopping online States with highest e-commerce rate see correlation with more graduate degrees, student and total debt, and higher rent as share of income  Washington D.C. highest growth, Mississippi lowest
  • 7. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Holiday Shopping Season Starts Earlier 7 31% of US consumers say they will start shopping before November 1 (+5% YoY)  27% say they will start before Thanksgiving (ADI Holiday Survey 2016)  Nearly 12% of all Christmas decorations will be bought before Halloween, up 20% from since last year
  • 8. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. DPI Indicates Holidays See Steep Price Discounts 8
  • 9. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. A Consumer Guide to Holiday Happiness 9
  • 10. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. A Consumer Guide to Holiday Happiness 10
  • 11. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Lack of Price Shopping Could Cost Customers 20% During the Holidays 11 The average price difference for the same product fluctuates 20% between retailers during the holiday season  Price comparing toys could save you the most (24%), while electronics will save you the least (17%)  Consumers typically check an average of four to five websites before making a purchase (ADI Holiday Survey 2016)
  • 12. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 25% of Consumers Will Pay Higher Prices During Holiday 12  Despite the increased ability to find a discount, 25% of customers will pay a higher price during the holidays  Consumers appear to be willing to pay a premium, perhaps for quality assurance or brand loyalty  Loyalty pays off for the retailer too: 5% of customers drive 35% of revenue
  • 13. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Mobile Shopping to Exceed Desktop in Holiday 2016 13 Shoppers rely more on mobile:  Mobile will exceed desktop visits for first time this holiday (53%), yet only drive 34% of purchases  60% of consumers expect to rely on mobile browsing (vs. app) this year vs. last year (ADI Holiday Survey 2016) Cyber Monday mobile visits grow fastest  Thanksgiving:  59% mobile visits, 41% mobile commerce  Black Friday:  57% mobile visits, 37% mobile commerce  Cyber Monday:  49% mobile visits, 32% mobile commerce
  • 14. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Purchases on Mobile Devices Remain Behind 14 Mobile shoppers struggle to go beyond the shopping cart and convert when compared to desktop  Desktop conversion rate is 2.7x higher than smartphone  While 30% of carts result in an order on desktop, only 19% of carts result in an order on smartphones
  • 15. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Display Gives Highest Chance of Finding Discounted Product 15 Consumers indicate the best source of online shopping deals during the holiday is email from a retailer, followed by ads  Consumers rank social media sites and push notifications from apps the lowest (Source: ADI Holiday Survey 2016) Display has the highest odds of leading to a discounted product (29%)  Social and email rank second
  • 16. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Most Buzzed About Gifts for Holiday 2016 16
  • 17. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 17 Hot Products You Might Miss Based on Buzz 25% of annual top products sales happen between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday (in units)  Some products may sell out faster than others: ‘Buy Earlier in November ’ indicates products customers shouldn’t wait to purchase, ‘Buy Later’ are a safer bet
  • 18. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | 2016 Holiday Shopping Prediction Appendix: Holiday Predictions 2016 (US) Adobe Digital Insights
  • 19. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 19 Email Rated #1 to Get Offer to Consumer’s Mobile Device While Shopping
  • 20. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 20 Overall Holiday Budgets Increased by 17%; Budget Breakdown
  • 21. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 21 1% of Products Drive 74% of Online Sales During the Holidays
  • 22. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 22 Black Friday and Cyber Monday Social Buzz Doesn’t Hit Until November
  • 23. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 23 Average Price Difference by Category
  • 24. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Digital Price Index by Category 24
  • 25. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Digital Price Index by Category 25
  • 26. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Digital Price Index by Category 26
  • 27. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.